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Nuclear Expert: "Fukushima Has 24 Hours To Avoid A Core Meltdown Scenario"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/11/2011 18:43 -0400

In an interview with Mark Hibbs, a Berlin-based senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a nonprofit think tank, Newsmax magazine asks - what happens next at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. The answer according to the nuclear expert, is that as Fukushima is now well on its way to a full core-melt nuclear accident, a worst case scenario could possibly lead to the same results last seen in 1986 Chernobyl.

Below we present a brief overview of the Fukushima plant from Wikipedia:

The Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant (Fukushima I NPP, 1F), often referred to as Fukushima Dai-ichi, is a nuclear power plant located in the town of Okuma in the Futaba District of Fukushima Prefecture. With six separate units located on site with a combined power of 4.7 GW, Fukushima I is one of the 25 largest nuclear power stations in the world. Fukushima I is the first nuclear plant to be constructed and run entirely by The Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO).

Fukushima II Nuclear Power Plant, 11.5 kilometres (7.1 mi) to the south, is also run by TEPCO.

Unit Type First Criticality Electric Power

Fukushima I - 1 BWR March 26, 1971 460 MW

Fukushima I - 2 BWR July 18, 1974 784 MW

Fukushima I - 3 BWR March 27, 1976 784 MW

Fukushima I - 4 BWR October 12, 1978 784 MW

Fukushima I - 5 BWR April 18, 1978 784 MW

Fukushima I - 6 BWR October 24, 1979 1,100 MW

Fukushima I - 7 (planned) ABWR October, 2013 1,380 MW

Fukushima I - 8 (planned) ABWR October, 2014 1,380 MW

Unit	Type	First Criticality	Electric Power
Fukushima I - 1	BWR	March 26, 1971	460 MW
Fukushima I - 2	BWR	July 18, 1974	784 MW
Fukushima I - 3	BWR	March 27, 1976	784 MW
Fukushima I - 4	BWR	October 12, 1978	784 MW
Fukushima I - 5	BWR	April 18, 1978	784 MW
Fukushima I - 6	BWR	October 24, 1979	1,100 MW
Fukushima I - 7 (planned)	ABWR	October, 2013	1,380 MW
Fukushima I - 8 (planned)	ABWR	October, 2014	1,380 MW

So what happens next? First, Hibbs explains precisely what already has taken place:

“What happened in Japan is very alarming because it would appear . . . that about 2:30 this afternoon Japan time, when the earthquake struck . . . three of the reactors that were operating were disenabled because of a loss of offsite power that was caused by the earthquake.”
The Japanese situation appears to be roughly analogous to the Three Mile Island incident in the United States, where authorities struggled for days to contain an improperly cooled reactor core but were able to avert a widespread release of nuclear material.

“We were in a situation as I recall then very similar to where we are now, where we were told by news media in 1979 that there was a core melt accident unfolding, we didn’t know how serious it would become, and what would happen,” Hibbs tells Newsmax.

At least one of the reactors in Japan, and perhaps more, “ are on the path of a core-melt accident. It’s called a loss of coolant accident. . . . And it’s up to the Japanese authorities, together with the industries in that country, to find a way to stem this problem,” he said.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton confirmed that the United States is trying to help alleviate the situation. "We just had our Air Force assets in Japan transport some really important coolant to one of the nuclear plants," Clinton said, according to the Associated Press.

The Japanese reactors are designed to drop neutron-blocking control rods into the core as soon as the plants detect a seismic disturbance. These controls apparently functioned normally. But even after the procedure, scientists say a base level of heat continues to flow, and coolant is needed to constrain those temperatures.

Unfotunately, Japan does not have much time:

Asked how long Japanese scientists have to correct the problem to avoid a core meltdown, Hibbs tells Newsmax that it depends on system design, adding, “it could be a day, plus or minus 10 hours.”
“After a while, with the heat building up in there, and lack of coolant, you’re going to see damage in your fuel, the cladding, the metal container around the nuclear material, begins to buckle or balloon or break, and after a little while you’ll get a situation where the fuel falls apart, melts, and falls into the core, and then you’ve got a classical core melt accident like you had in Three Mile Island that you had in the United States in '79.”

Hibbs spoke with Japanese government officials who told him the force of the tsunami was so severe that the water may have flooded the reactors, power generators, and cooling mechanisms, disabling the equipment. "Which means they have to resort to basically a military-type exercise, to rush in to the devastated site equipment that they can quickly hook up to the reactor to get power in there and start this emergency equipment, to get cooling water into that core and prevent that fuel from overheating.

“And if they can’t do that,” he told Newsmax, “then you’re going to have this meltdown.”

They have 24 hours or so to avoid a core meltdown, he says. But if one occurs, two scenarios could follow: The good outcome would mirror what happened at Three Mile Island, while the bad one could involve what he called a “Chernobyl scenario, where the damage to the reactor was such that the integrity of the structures were damaged.

“There was an explosion and other things happened in there, that opened up the reactor so the inventory of radioactive material . . . went into the atmosphere and generated this deadly plume that we know happened in Chernobyl.

“So that is the ultimate worst-case scenario. Nobody is saying that’s going to happen. Nobody is even saying we’re going to have a core meltdown. But we have a window of time now. We don’t know how much is left — but the Japanese authorities and the government and all the agencies that they can muster are working overtime to get cooling systems on that site powered and working.”

The April 1986 Chernobyl disaster cost an estimated 4,000 lives. More than 330,000 Russians had to be relocated because of contamination.

But Hibbs says, “A lot of worst-case things would have to happen for us to get that far.”

Hibbs said the Japanese right now are fighting the clock to contain the heating.

- advertisements -

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 04:21 | 1043658 reader2010

a friend of mine emailed from Japan, "We have just got power back on after 24 hours. Last night was -3 degC here and no heating. The shaking where I am was severe but nothing fell down from the shelves etc. It was like being on the deck of a boat in a strong swell. My family are all well and safe for now. I am worried about my son in Tokyo though.Also worried about the nuclear power plant in Fukushima. The government says that there is no problem and don't worry but I know from experience the the Japanese government never tell the truth and always try to hide the severity of things like this."

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 04:30 | 1043668 TruthInSunshine

Pineapple Express.

I'd err on the side of caution and stock up on potassium iodide right about now.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 04:32 | 1043670 Yen Cross

Ok, we need to track the cloud.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 04:32 | 1043673 Bonesetter Brown

Ugh...

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--An explosion was heard and white smoke was seen around the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant late Saturday afternoon in Japan, though the cause and exact location of the event were not immediately clear, according to Japan's national broadcaster NHK.

A wall at the Daiichi Number 1 reactor building appears to have been destroyed, NHK reported

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 04:36 | 1043676 Yen Cross

I'm really worried about the reactor 5. It's a breeder/containment pool. That could be catastrophic! The fallout from that would be really nasty.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 04:36 | 1043677 TruthInSunshine

Official: Containment wall at Fukushima Daiichi has blown out. Residents being urged to cover mouths with wet towels and get to the ground.

Wow.

English live feed with all the details above. http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/

Looks like I picked the wrong day to quit drinking.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 04:37 | 1043679 Mentalic

Reuters: Fukushima prefecture says Tepco's no.1 reactor ceiling has collapsed

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 04:39 | 1043680 TruthInSunshine

BreakingNews

Japan nuclear plant update: Walls and roof of a building at site destroyed by blast - NHK via Sky News 14 minutes ago via breakingnews.com
Japan nuclear plant update: Government officials tell AP there was shaking, white smoke at site http://on.msnbc.com/hAQkNs

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 04:39 | 1043682 reader2010

Fuck.

High radiation originating from the site boundary

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 04:43 | 1043689 anvILL

TVs here stopped showing the video of explosion and now only shows photos at 16:30(Japan)

Obviously, information coming out is being controlled.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 04:47 | 1043690 TruthInSunshine

BBC Breaking News 'Explosion' at Japan atomic plant

6 minutes ago

An explosion has been heard from a Japanese nuclear power plant hit by Friday's devastating earthquake.

Reports said smoke was seen coming from the plant at Fukushima and several workers were injured.

Japanese officials fear a meltdown at one of the plant's reactors after radioactive material was detected outside it.

Japan's Prime Minister Naoto Kan declared a state of emergency at the Fukushima 1 and 2 power plants as engineers try to confirm whether a reactor at one of the stations has gone into meltdown.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 04:44 | 1043692 misterc

Kraftwerk - Radio Activity

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2BYeaxSaV0

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 04:48 | 1043696 robertocarlos

Frankie Goes To Hollywood - some track with BBC instructions on how to dispose of the deceased.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 04:47 | 1043693 RmcAZ

NHK English reporting that radiation levels are around 1,015 mSv... they say being exposed to this for 1 hour is equivalent to being exposed normally for a year... but it's unclear how large of an area this radiation might be covering.

Watching live here: http://jibtv.com/program/?page=0

It was English until a few seconds ago anyway... maybe it'll come back.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 04:56 | 1043698 robertocarlos

It will cycle back to English after Chinese?, Japanese, and Spanish.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 05:02 | 1043714 RmcAZ

They said this number was measured at the entrance gate to the plant at 3:29 PM local time...

This means the number must be much higher inside the plant... not good at all.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 05:22 | 1043725 Yen Cross

I apologize for my earlier remarks. Be safe. I look forward to many more posts from you.

Please keep me/us posted. Be carefull.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 04:49 | 1043699 TruthInSunshine

NBC, msnbc.com and news services

updated 4 minutes ago breaking news Explosion rocks quake-hit Japanese nuke plant Walls, roof of building at site have been destroyed, NHK reports

TOKYO — An explosion was heard and smoke was seen at a quake-hit Japanese nuclear power plant on Saturday, officials said.

Several workers were injured by the blast at Fukushima Unit 1, Japanese TV station NHK reported. A trail of white smoke was seen at the site and shaking was felt, The Associated Press reported.

Britain's Sky News cited NHK as saying that the walls and roof of a building at the site had been destroyed.

Japan earlier warned of a meltdown after the nuclear reactor was damaged when a massive earthquake and tsunami struck the northeast coast.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42044156/ns/world_news-asia-pacific/

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 04:52 | 1043701 baby_BLYTHE

I HAVE NOT TAKEN PHYSICS!

Warning: I HAVE NOT TAKEN PHYSICS

I cannot contribute to this discussion unfortunately.

My goodness the junk monkeys are having a field day!

This is an economic blog! Grow up

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 04:56 | 1043704 TruthInSunshine

Japanese media in FULL PANIC, talking of decontamination, etc.

Official Government press conference any minute.

http://www.justin.tv/rockinroosters17#/w/951240848/21

http://www.cnn.com/video/flashLive/l...stream3&hpt=T1

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 04:57 | 1043709 RmcAZ

I can't figure out what the hell they are talking about right now... are they warning about some other tsunami or is this old footage?

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 05:00 | 1043713 robertocarlos

It's CNN from Britain now live. The Americans are sleeping.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 04:59 | 1043710 robertocarlos

CNN is repeating news from over 24 hours ago.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 05:10 | 1043719 robertocarlos

Thanks. This CNN feed is way better than the TV feed. Both are British based but different.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 05:02 | 1043707 TruthInSunshine

ReutersBreakingNews

Japan chief cabinet sec Edano: expands evacuation area at No. 2 plant to 10 km 7 minutes ago via web
Local Japanese media reporting explosion, ceiling collapse at earthquake-damaged Fukushima nuclear plant; injuries reported 14 minutes ago via web

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 05:00 | 1043712 Yen Cross

This is no joke people. Gamma short wave length radiation will kill you. I'm not sure about atmospheric dispersment. Rest assured you will be hammered if you are close to that area. Don't eat the food or drink the water. As the radioactive molecules land on things they will irradiate them. It's neutrons looking for a new home.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 05:05 | 1043717 robertocarlos

So far we are the only people to see the reactor blow up. NHK reported not to eat food or drink water and to cover your mouth with a wet cloth.

British CNN doesn't seem to have the facts yet.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 05:10 | 1043720 John Bull

Boom!

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 05:34 | 1043728 Lord Welligton

From BBC via Local TV.

This does not look good.

That is one BIG explosion.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12720219

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 05:36 | 1043729 zebra

eject the warp core!

(CNN) -- An explosion has been reported at a nuclear plant in northeastern Japan's Fukushima prefecture, Japanese public broadcaster NHK said Saturday, citing the country's nuclear and industrial safety agency.

The Tokyo Electric Company said four workers on the ground were injured, NHK reported.

It was not immediately clear where the blast occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi plant, or what caused it.

NHK said the injured workers were in the process of cooling a nuclear reactor at the plant by injecting water into its core.

Earlier Saturday Japan's nuclear agency said workers were continuing efforts to cool fuel rods at the plant after a small amount of radioactive material escaped into the air.

Gallery: Massive quake hits Japan

Map: 8.9 earthquake hits Japan

Witness deals with quake terror

Cars ablaze in wake of Japan quake RELATED TOPICS

The agency said there was a strong possibility that the radioactive cesium monitors detected was caused by the melting of a fuel rod at the plant, adding that engineers were continuing to cool the fuel rods by pumping water around them.

A spokesman for Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Agency earlier said atomic material had seeped out of one of the five nuclear reactors at the Daiichi plant, located about 160 miles (260 kilometers) north of Tokyo.

Authorities evacuated people living near the reactor after an earthquake and tsunami crippled cooling systems there, as well as at another of the Tokyo Electric Power Company's nuclear plants.

The evacuations notwithstanding, the nuclear safety agency asserted Saturday that the radiation at the plants did not pose an immediate threat to nearby residents' health, the Kyodo News Agency said.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said Friday on its website that the quake and tsunami knocked out a Daiichi reactor's off-site power source, which is used to cool down the radioactive material inside. Then, the tsunami waves disabled the backup source -- diesel generators -- and authorities were working to get these operating.

On Saturday Japanese nuclear authorities said the cooling system had also failed at three of the four reactors at the Fukushima Daini plant -- located in another town in northeaster Japan's Fukushima prefecture.

Janie Eudy told CNN that her 52-year-old husband, Joe, was working at the Daiichi plant and was injured by falling and shattering glass when the quake struck. As he and others were planning to evacuate, at their managers' orders, the tsunami waves struck and washed buildings from the nearby town past the plant.

"To me, it sounded like hell on earth," she said, adding her husband -- a native of Pineville, Louisiana -- ultimately escaped.

The power company reported Saturday that about 1 million households were without power, and that power shortages may occur due to damage at the company's facility.

"We kindly ask our customers to cooperate with us in reducing usage of power," the company said.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 06:02 | 1043741 Yen Cross

I have been laughing for 20 minutes. Can't stop! People are dying QUEEN DOYLE? Any remarks about the private jet to help our neighbors, or shall I call Bentley?

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 05:39 | 1043730 zebra

EOM

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 05:44 | 1043736 Scottj88

Just pieced together an article highlighting a few of the major events:

http://thehardrightedge.com/fukushima/

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 06:07 | 1043744 Lord Welligton

Posting this again.

Look at the first second of the video.

The shock wave is very worrying.

"From BBC via Local TV.

This does not look good.

That is one BIG explosion."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12720219

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 06:33 | 1043761 Yen Cross

Are you being Honest? So my guys will meet your guys on the tarmac? I trust you. The flight cordinates are available. I'm proud of you. The far South Island Right?

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 07:02 | 1043779 Lord Welligton

You really are a little maggot aren't you.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 07:14 | 1043785 Yen Cross

So my team can't expect your help? I have self respect, and a love of truffles. Needless. Can I count on you?

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 07:19 | 1043790 Yen Cross

Net Jets you little prick. When I show up your ass had better be prepared.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 07:24 | 1043793 Lord Welligton

Take your medication and go for a nap.

You'll feel much better.

Honest.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 07:30 | 1043797 Yen Cross

Not tired Junior. I don't medicate. Have you watched the news (Junior Spalding)

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 06:45 | 1043770 Sad Sufi

Thanks Lord. Yes, it is interesting to see:

1)Doesn't look like "debris" after a quake" like the Japanese power guy was just saying was probable.

2)You can see a quick flash of something combusting like an explosive gas, which pushes the air up, creating the "mini" lenticular compression cloud ala Dr. Strangelove. Explosive gas may be like commentator saying "hydrogen gas" explosion==not nuke-ish in nature.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 07:19 | 1043784 Arkadaba

I don't believe in God and I don't pray ... but know families living over there. Hoping they are all well.

Edit: seriously.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 06:11 | 1043747 RmcAZ

Reuters: Evacuation radius at Fukushima nuclear plant has been increased to 20 km - TV

Kyodo News: Evacuation area expanded to 20-km radius from Fukushima plants

http://live.reuters.com/Event/Japan_earthquake2

http://english.kyodonews.jp/

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 06:18 | 1043751 Dabale arroz a ...

Dabale arroz a la zorra el abad's picture

Uf, that explosion looks UGLY

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 06:38 | 1043764 Arkadaba

Doesn't look good

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 06:38 | 1043766 spinone

so much for the containment building

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 06:51 | 1043772 asteroids

TOO LATE! BOOM! Should markets open up on Monday I think the world will be pissed at the US.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 06:53 | 1043773 Mr.Kowalski

Well Tyler was close-- not quite 24 hours. They've increased the evacuation radius to 25km. We might have another TMI, but likely not a Chernobyl. Fade the Nikkei anybody ?

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 07:04 | 1043780 ivars

If Japans nuclear plants experience meltdown, it will send oil price up immediately, as nuclear alternative will look less problem free.

Here are scenarious for oil and DJIA I charted on february 6th, so far they look good:

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&start=0

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/download/file.php?id=2609

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/download/file.php?id=2608

I did not expect nuclear power problems to compound on supply problems from revolutions, but, the curves does not depend on causes, they are systemic, the causes provide themselves readily, as we have seen so far. The curves are the cumulative result of all unpredictable causes, but the curves themselves are predictable.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 07:20 | 1043791 been there done that

Maybe it's time for Natural Gas? We have this "glut" and I've been thinking it's the next thing.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 07:07 | 1043781 Dan The Man

---

i bet on the apocalypse...Bring it on, Bitches!

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 07:15 | 1043786 Ying-Yang

Japanese Government just released statement that explosion has not injured containment structure.

How hard is it to install power generators and have existing piping cool the core with the debris and radioactivity?

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 07:29 | 1043795 Yen Cross

I flew over for the Aussie floods. I'll take that piece of some mothers breathen, out for a walk!

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 07:34 | 1043798 anvILL

The Japanese government has stopped giving updates on the amount of radiation from 15:30. Something is completely fucked up.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 07:42 | 1043802 PY-129-20

According to the Prof on BBC, this explosion is indeed a "good sign". Another expert on German TV just said that you actually don't need to wear protection gear, if you live next to it. Stay in your house would be the best and that radiation stuff isn't so bad.

Another guy said: people in Tokyo shopping as usual. Time to get another Nintendo-Ipad

...

seriously, this world is so fucked up...

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 07:52 | 1043808 anvILL

>Another guy said: people in Tokyo shopping as usual. Time to get another Nintendo-Ipad
Now, I can say that is COMPLETE BULLSHIT.
Yes, stores are open in Tokyo as usual , but is the shopping going on as usual?
No fucking way.
The croudedness in Shibuya is not what you see in the average Saturday.

Something, or more likely as you pointed out, everything is fucked up.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 08:00 | 1043814 PY-129-20

Somebody just said that the meltdown was confirmed?

If this is true...

...

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 07:44 | 1043803 Yen Cross

You are right. My people will arrive on the South Island at zulu 8. Transit will take some time.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 07:54 | 1043809 Ying-Yang

ARE WE FUK-U-SHIT-MA ?

Japanese PM just said we will have a brighter future.... but move back 20 kilometers.

Points to Ponder:

Tokyo Electric Power Co., Asia’s biggest utility, said there was an explosion near the No. 1 reactor at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power station at 3:40 p.m. Japan time today. Four people were injured and radioactivity levels are rising, spokesman Taisuke Tomikawa said in by telephone.

Tokyo Electric

Tokyo Electric started releasing radioactive gas and steam into the atmosphere about 9 a.m. local time to reduce pressure in the containment housing after yesterday’s magnitude 8.9 earthquake, Akitsuka Kobayashi, a company spokesman, said by phone earlier today. The utility has also started preparing to vent gas from the containment areas of four reactors at the nearby Fukushima Dai-Ni nuclear plant, he said.

Winds in the area of the Fukushima plant are blowing at less than 18 kilometers per hour mostly in an offshore direction, according to a 4 p.m. update from the Japan Meteorological Association.

The government earlier today widened the evacuation zone around the reactor to 10 kilometers from 3 kilometers, affecting thousands of people. The evacuation zone will be maintained at 10 kilometers from Dai-Ni plant and will be extended to 20 kilometers from Dai-Ichi plant, said Toshihiro Murakamia, spokesman for the Fukushima prefecture government.

Pressure Control

Tokyo Electric earlier said it had lost control of pressure building up in three reactors at the Dai-Ichi power plant. Temperatures in the control room rose to higher than 100 Celsius (212 Fahrenheit), said Naoki Tsunoda, a company spokesman.

The plant’s operators need to connect to the electricity grid, fix emergency diesel generators or bring in more batteries to power a backup system that pumps the water needed to cool the reactor.

Questions:

With the damage, can the generators and cooling systems be restarted?

Will the recently released radioactive steam kill people?

If meltdown cannot be prevented, where will the radioactive plume end up?

Anyone care to weigh in on plume tradjectories after containment fails?

Could the plume reach Hawaii or West Coast?

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 07:58 | 1043813 Yen Cross

No you aren't Thanks for your help. We welcome your help. Thank you.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 08:12 | 1043820 Ying-Yang

Other points to ponder:

Control room runs the cooling system. Temperatures in control room are reported to be 212 F. Can anyone work inside at 212 F?

They would need to directly add coolant to the core.

Job opening: Great pay and death benefits to install water hoses inside containment building.

Keep in mind radioactive steam has been released. Gov say just low level of radioactivity... really?

Note - building exploded because of build up of pressure? They said hydrogen gas exploded. They could not contain the pressure by venting.

"Tokyo Electric earlier said it had lost control of pressure building up in three reactors at the Dai-Ichi power plant."

WTF?

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 08:22 | 1043822 honestann

That huge reactor building just vaporized like a little toy.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/art-levine/report-explosion-at-nucle_b_834765.html

0:45 to 0:50 shows a close-up; notice the shock waves.

I saw zero flames, so probably there was not hydrogen gas exploding or any other flammable exploding.

What it looked like was somehow a large quantity of water and the superhot fuel came in contact, and the water vaporized instantly, which expanded at a hypersonic rate and literally vaporized that entire huge building in a tiny fraction of a second.

Now, that could have been the fuel burning through the vessel. But it is a bit strange that they have showed no additional activity in that location (unless they've suppressed everything after that explosion).

Assuming the vessel is still in tact, that explosion was huge, and that means the cooling tubes that go in-to and out-of the vessel are now probably just open holes.

That means no system exists to control anything. If that's true, then presumably the next step is for the super-hot fuel and/or fuel by-products to burn right through the bottom of the vessel.

Once the fuel hits water in the building below the vessel or the water table 10 or 20 meters below ground, there will be a massive explosion of steam and radiative particles into the air.

Not good.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 08:34 | 1043842 malikai

Once the fuel hits water in the building below the vessel or the water table 10 or 20 meters below ground, there will be a massive explosion of steam and radiative particles into the air.

That was the fear at Chernobyl. It was estimated if it happened there, the explosive yield would have been about 20MT. If that happens at Daichi, who knows, but its safe to say that a surrounding 40-50 miles will be uninhabitable for quite some time.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 08:40 | 1043845 Lord Welligton

It would also "take out" the other reactors on the same site.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 08:59 | 1043863 malikai

20MT blast at that site, and nobody cares about the other reactors anymore, because pieces of them will be found in Guam.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 09:11 | 1043883 honestann

The people in Guam might care about that.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 10:49 | 1043898 CitizenPete

Huff Post had it right.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 08:12 | 1043823 Pegasus Muse

The TwitVid at bottom of this article shows material escaping from the site. Cannot tell if it is coming from a containment facility or not.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/japan-earthquake/4758653/Japan-tsunami-Fears-over-nuclear-reactors-as-toll-grows

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 08:20 | 1043829 papaswamp

I'm sure this has been posted..but view of the explosion....but all is well. Can cook burgers on the grill without lighting the grill....plus they glow at night..fun for the kids.

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/12/video-of-japanese-nuclear-pl...

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 08:33 | 1043840 Ying-Yang

Agree Honestann... they reported buildup of hydrogen gas. Pressure explosion not ignition of gas. When water is superheated is hydrogen released?

Hard to imagine workers can get to containment building to install coolant components with debris and damage to structures.

Currently they claim radioactive levels are going down. Have they cooled down the core enough to lower levels? I read earlier it takes days to cool down the core.

Hard to believe Gov is being factual.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 08:42 | 1043847 honestann

When we look at many photos of the complex from many angles, and then look at the recent explosion videos, it is clear that was reactor #1.

Under extreme pressure superheated water can dissociate into hydrogen and oxygen, but there is no indication that happened. The thing is, unless you have a way to contain astronomical pressures, you get a hypersonic steam explosion before dissociation. So the lack of flames strongly implies a pressure explosion.

Remember the tail end of a Saturn V rocket when they lift off. That's hydrogen and oxygen burning. We didn't see anything remotely resembling that.

I don't believe anything they're saying after the moment that reactor building #1 vaporized... and they haven't said much.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSUqVxrSBBI

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 08:52 | 1043856 Lord Welligton

Is it just me or has there been NO footage or photograph since the explosion.

If all was well surely they would be flooding the airwaves with comforting video.

The initial dust should be well settled by now.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 08:39 | 1043846 Lord Welligton

QE3 a certainty now?

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 08:44 | 1043849 Yen Cross

I'm boarding a G-5

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 08:48 | 1043852 Ying-Yang

Fukushima prefecture says Tepco’s no.1 reactor ceiling has collapsed – Jiji
by Reuters_TonyTharakan at 3/12/2011 8:34:47 AM12:34 AM

The outside of the building would be the secondary containment boundary. We need to hope that the primary containment is still intact.
comment by nuketoo at 3/12/2011 8:26:32 AM12:26 AM

Tepco says explosion may have been hydrogen used to cool Fukushima plant – Kyodo; Tepco says 4 people taken to hospital after reported explosion, no word on condition – Jiji
by Reuters_TonyTharakan at 3/12/2011 8:20:55 AM12:20 AM

Tokyo fire department sending special nuclear rescue team to Fukushima – TV

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 09:01 | 1043866 Yen Cross

Taxing Ying-Yang. Not sure you will receive? YUou kick ass! I'll geta hme link soon.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 08:57 | 1043861 Ying-Yang

TOKYO (MNI) - The Japanese government confirmed Saturday evening that an explosion ripped through a damaged nuclear reactor building at a power plant on Japan's north-east coast that was damaged by Friday's massive earthquake, according to Japanese media reports.

Four workers were injured from the blast at the 40-year old Fukushima Daiichi plant, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano told reporters.

The government confirmed the release of an indeterminate amount of radioactivity in the explosion.

Confirmation of the explosion intensified fears of a complete meltdown of the reactor and the release of large quantities of radioactive material, in what would be the world's worse nuclear accident since the explosion of a nuclear reactor in Chernobyl, Ukraine, in 1986.

The government also doubled the radius of the evacuation area around the plant to 20 kilometers. Tens of thousands of local residents have already been evacuated from the area when the reactor became unstable after its cooling system lost power overnight.

TV footage from public broadcaster NHK showed clouds of vapor rising from the stricken plant, which is about 250 kilometers north of Tokyo. NHK television said the roof of the reactor's containment building had been blown off.

Earlier Saturday afternoon, The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, Japan's nuclear safety agency, said a meltdown of the reactor core may be in progress at the plant operated by Tokyo Electric Power Co. in Fukushima Prefecture, Nikkei News reported.

The agency made the announcement as cesium and iodine, two by-products of nuclear fission, were detected near the plant.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 09:17 | 1043896 Yen Cross

Thanks for the update.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 09:01 | 1043864 Ying-Yang

Point to Ponder:

"The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, Japan's nuclear safety agency, said a meltdown of the reactor core may be in progress."

Maybe? Really?

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 09:19 | 1043902 Yen Cross

Really! I spent 100k to fly over.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 09:07 | 1043875 honestann

Maybe it is too soon to start beating this drum, but this is an example of the politicalization of science.

In fact, there is no science any more, at least in anything that is funded by government or large corporations. The scientists are there simply to provide rationalizations and prestige to whatever the predators-that-be wish to claim.

Any one single real scientist with no boss to tell him what to claim would immediately add 2 + 2 and get 4.

#1: Japan gets many large earthquakes.

#2: Large nearby earthquakes cause large tsunamis.

#3: If you put [cooling or electrical or other] equipment on a coastline, that equipment is guaranteed to stop working when 50 trillion gallons of tsunami water shoves it's way in.

#4: Therefore, you cannot build safe nuclear power plants in such locations unless the entire facility is raised 40 to 50 meters about the ground (highest conceivable tsunami). But even then you create other large risks such as tsunamis pushing huge ships into the structure holding everything 50 meters above ground.

As a scientist, I can assure everyone that just about any real scientist... or any honest, rational non-scientist... assigned the task of approving designs like this would immediately veto the plans. Yet every reactor in Japan appears to be on or near the coast from maps I've seen. And many reactors worldwide were built in absurd locations.

Every time I've taken a contract that has government connections, I've seen the science being massively corrupted. Any scientist who doesn't support the pre-conceived agenda of the predators-that-be is read the riot act. If that doesn't work, they are edged out or transferred elsewhere. If that doesn't work they're fired and subjected to character and career assassination.

Never trust "science" (or anything else) from government or large corporations. It is almost all agenda driven lies.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 09:15 | 1043891 CitizenPete

As a "scientist", you might find emperical data confirming that cooling water required for the condenser (and discharge) is fairly abundant at the coast. Bwah!

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 09:19 | 1043907 honestann

I most certainly do!

However, that is only one of many considerations.

Doh!

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 09:20 | 1043913 Yen Cross

cruising at 40k. Pete give it a rest. I have 12 hours over the Pacific. It gets bumpy.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 09:19 | 1043905 Ying-Yang

Agree.. take the case of BP's decision to ignore opinions of scientists on blowout preventer.

Follow the money... pretty sad.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 09:24 | 1043921 Yen Cross

dude i love you but your technical nuke ideas are way off. This was a cesium/oxygen eruption. Iodine is a joke.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 09:49 | 1043994 Yen Cross

That is A completely different topic. I like how they promoted their Meat Puppet to Russia.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 09:18 | 1043906 CitizenPete

Impact to TEPCO's Facilities due to Miyagiken-Oki Earthquake (as of 3PM)

Below is major impact to TEPCO's facilities due to the Miyagiken-Oki Earthquake that occurred yesterday at 2:46PM. *new items are underlined [Nuclear Power Station] Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station: Units 1 to 3: shutdown due to earthquake Units 4 to 6: outage due to regular inspection * The national government has instructed evacuation for those local residents within 10km radius of the periphery. * Measurement of radioactive material (Iodine, etc.) by monitoring car indicates increasing value compared to normal level. One of the monitoring posts is also indicating higher than normal level. We will continue monitoring discharge of radioactive material from exhaust stack and discharge canal, etc. * Reactor of Unit 1 has been shut down and steam in reactor has been cooled by isolation condenser, but it is now stopped. Because pressure level in reactor containment vessel is increasing, following the national government instruction, we have done the measure to reduce the pressure of the reactor containment vessels in order to fully secure safety and we understand that we have succeeded it at 2:30PM. At present, reactor water level is becoming lower and we are injecting water accordingly. * Reactor of Unit 2 has been shut down and we continue injecting water by Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System. Current reactor water level is lower than normal level, but the water level is steady. Following the national government instruction, we are preparing to implement a measure to reduce the pressure of the reactor containment vessels in order to fully secure safety. * Reactor of Unit 3 has been shut down and we continue injecting water by Reactor Core Isolation Cooling System. Following the national government instruction, we are preparing to implement a measure to reduce the pressure of the reactor containment vessels in order to fully secure safety. * We are implementing a measure to reduce the pressure of the reactor containment vessels, but, one of our employees working in the Unit 1 was irradiated at over 100mSv level(106.3mSv). He received a medical treatment by a special physician. Fukushima Daini Nuclear Power Station: Units 1 to 4: shutdown due to earthquake * The national government has instructed evacuation for those local residents within 3km radius of the periphery and indoor standby for those local residents between 3km and 10km radius of the periphery. * At present, we have decided to prepare implementing measures to reduce the pressure of the reactor containment vessel (partial discharge of air containing radioactive materials) in order to fully secure safety. These measures are considered to be implemented in Units 1, 2 and 3 and accordingly, we have reported and/or noticed the government agencies concerned. * Unit 3 has been stopped and being "nuclear reactor cooling hot stop" at 12:15PM. Kashiwazaki Kariwa Nuclear Power Station: Units 1, 5, 6, 7: normal operation Units 2 to 4: outage due to regular inspection [Thermal Power Station] Hirono Thermal Power Station Units 2 and 4: shutdown due to earthquake Hitachinaka Thermal Power Station Unit 1: shutdown due to earthquake Kashima Thermal Power Station Units 2, 3, 5, 6: shutdown due to earthquake Ohi Thermal Power Station Units 2, 3: shutdown due to earthquake Higashi-Ohgishima Thermal Power Station Unit 1: shutdown due to earthquake [Hydro Power Station] 4 stations in Fukushima Prefecture were shutdown due to earthquake. Power stations in Yamanashi Prefecture have been restored. [Transmission System, etc.] 5 substations shown below have been shutdown: - Naka Substation - Shin Motegi Substation - Joban Substation - Ibaraki Substation - Nishi Mito Substation [Blackout in TEPCO's Service Area] Total of about 0.6 million households are out of power. Tokyo: 0 Kanagawa Pref.: 0 Tochigi Pref.: 30,389 Chiba Pref.: 36,456 Saitama Pref: 0 Gunma Pref.: 0 Ibaraki Pref: 537,288 Yamanashi Pref: 0 Shizuoka Pref: 0 (east of Fuji River) [Supply and Demand Status within TEPCO's Service Area to Secure Stable Power Supply] Backup supply from Shinshinano Conversion Station: 600MW Backup supply from Sakuma Conversion Station: 300MW Backup supply from Higashi Shimizu Conversion Station: 100MW
Video of explosion (OUTSIDE) of the containment building: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjx-JlwYtyE&feature=feedu

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 09:27 | 1043931 Yen Cross

Thanks for the update Pete. Cesium/oxygen. The precurser of magnesium! Flash points

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 09:31 | 1043932 CitizenPete

UNIT 1:

Because pressure level in reactor containment vessel is increasing, following the national
government instruction, we have done the measure to reduce the pressure of
the reactor containment vessels in order to fully secure safety and we
understand that we have succeeded it at 2:30PM.

UNITs 2 and 3:

Following the national government instruction, we are preparing to implement a measure
to reduce the pressure of the reactor containment vessels in order to
fully secure safety.

TRANSLATION: I believe this means they have bit the bullet and poisoned the Unit 1 reactor and are prepared to do so on Unit 2 and 3 - if the government instructs them to do so. Certainly there are legal and insurance issues at play (on top the the operating procedures and regulations.) I personally understand this to mean they have used the final safety system and blown the valves (designed to be blown - exploding valves) and injected boron into Unit 1. I could be totally wrong in my interpretation -- but based on my knowledge and experience with BWR NSSS this is the most likely senario at this point. (esp. if the fuel bundles were exposed above cooling levels at any time.)

Nothing like destroying a $3.5 billion dollar NSSS BWR with the click of a switch.

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 02:05 | 1046019 Aristarchan

It is possible to bring a reactor back from a boron kill....at least in theory.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 09:26 | 1043927 Ying-Yang

Most power plants that use water build reservoirs or locate near existing water resources. Should the plants be built to withstand potential events or are shortcuts taken to reduce construction costs?

Sun, 03/13/2011 - 02:37 | 1046057 Aristarchan

Nuclear plants are designed to withstand a varying array of events. The problem is, engineering estimates of maximum events is not always accurate....many systems fail that were designed on 100 year, 500 year, or 1000 year events, simply because our understanding of maximum events is flawed. But, you cannot design a system for an absolute maximum event that can be envisioned, or nothing would ever get built.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 09:30 | 1043944 Yen Cross

I hope you are right. The SAT map shows # 5 as a holding pool. Low heat storage. A high brine pool.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 09:35 | 1043955 Ying-Yang

The explosion destroyed the walls of the reactor building.

But serious damage to the container of the reactor is believed to be unlikely, Kyodo News reported, citing unidentified nuclear safety agency officials.

Fuel rods at the reactor may be melting after radioactive cesium material left by atomic fission was detected near the site, Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency spokesman Yuji Kakizaki said by phone.

''If the fuel rods are melting and this continues, a reactor meltdown is possible,'' Kakizaki said.

A meltdown refers to a heat build-up of such intensity in the core it melts the floor of the reactor containment housing.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 09:45 | 1043980 Yen Cross

That is why I'm on a plane, circumventing the South Pacific. I want answers!

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 09:53 | 1043984 CitizenPete

REPEAT:

UNIT 1:

UNITs 2 and 3:

Following the national government instruction, we are preparing to implement a measure
to reduce the pressure of the reactor containment vessels in order to
fully secure safety.

TRANSLATION: I believe this means they have bit the bullet and poisoned the Unit 1 reactor and are prepared to do so on Unit 2 and 3 - if the government instructs them to do so. Certainly there are legal and insurance issues at play (on top the the operating procedures and regulations.) I personally understand this to mean they have used the final safety system and blown the valves (designed to be blown - exploding valves) and injected boron into Unit 1. I could be totally wrong in my interpretation -- but based on my knowledge and experience with BWR NSSS this is the most likely senario at this point. (esp. if the fuel bundles were exposed above cooling levels at any time.)

Nothing like destroying a $3.5 billion dollar NSSS BWR with the click of a switch.

UPDATE UPDATE UPDATE UPDATE:

Noriyuki SHIKATA, Director of Global Communications at Prime Minister's Office of Japan:

(CAPS are mine)

"TEPCO's efforts to depressurize the container [CONTAINMENT BLDG.] was successful. Additional measures are now taken tonight using sea water and boric acid." [AS I PREVIOUSLY STATED]

"Blast was caused by accumulated hydrogen combined with oxygen in the space between container [CONTAINMENT BLDG.] and outer structure. No damage to container [CONTAINMENT BLDG.] "

Nothing to see... (sorry no nuclear disaster - except disabling multiple billions of power production) .... move along...

Focus back on the "day (now weekend) of rage" in Saudi and the UN waiting for the body count to rise in Libya (and damages to increase enough to appear to require IMF funding) before starting military operations to invade and claim the oil rights for France and Germany.

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 09:59 | 1044020 Yen Cross

Ok I'll triple check your theory. On a lighter note? Hydrogen is the byproduct of what elemtal breakdown. Lets discuss wormholes and plasma drrives. Please? Warp engines!

Sat, 03/12/2011 - 10:02 | 1044025 Yen Cross

I'm not joking.

Nuclear Expert: "Fukushima Has 24 Hours To Avoid A Core Meltdown Scenario"

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