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Number Of The Day: 580,000 (Hint: Tomorrow's NFP Whisper Bogey)

Tyler Durden's picture




 

... That's what some model (quite possibly from Ford or Wilhelmina) in Barclay's FX department predicts tomorrow's NFP number will be. And just in case the first number is wrong, basedon what can only be attributed to Barcap borrowing Birinyi's ruler, the firm says there is a 95% confidence interval that the actual number will come at 450,000. And there's your whisper number.

 

 

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Thu, 01/06/2011 - 11:11 | 852416 Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

Sell on the news.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 11:12 | 852421 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Nvidia up 8%

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 11:16 | 852431 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Thank GOD the jobs recovery is finally here.

What took you so long?

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 11:17 | 852432 Salinger
Thu, 01/06/2011 - 11:19 | 852434 goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Very bearish for equities because It Will kill POMO but be bullish for inflation nonetheless

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 12:31 | 852754 bull-market_3.0
bull-market_3.0's picture

How is this bullish for PM (inflation) if USD appreciates?

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 14:26 | 853302 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

I don't think NFP or anything else will kill POMO. Looking at recent Fed meeting statements, everything is a justification for continuing the POMO.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 11:20 | 852439 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

More than half of retailers missed holiday expectations. November had a low read 9.8, this should have been high if only for holiday jobs.

How in 4 weeks does this number explode during a time when companies layoff at year end?

Help me out here

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 11:20 | 852444 Salinger
Salinger's picture

Goldman's Retail queen Shapira on Bloomberg explains poor retail

I guess people weren't ready to thow out and replace their flat panel TVs purchased the year before

 

(to her credit she doesn't blame the weather)

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 11:21 | 852446 Stuart
Stuart's picture

The ISM services employment index fell 2% to 50.5 in the last report.   ADP is notoriously unreliable.   95% chance Barcap will need another ruler.  

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 11:20 | 852448 ffart
ffart's picture

I always wonder how FX traders decide which bag of horseshit to buy and which one to sell

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 16:32 | 852807 Col. Kurtz
Col. Kurtz's picture

LoL! (hard to do)

I always trade the fullest bag <g>.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 11:20 | 852449 French Frog
French Frog's picture

You should post the emails of these forecasters so that we can laugh at them when the numbers don't come anywhere near their predictions

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 11:21 | 852452 farmjohnny
farmjohnny's picture

Yup and its raining birds

Ducati's selling for Suzuki prices WTF

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p2Lkqt4nGe8

BTFD (in PM)

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 11:22 | 852459 qp
qp's picture

Does Barclays need to close out their long positions?

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 11:28 | 852490 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

Well that just about does it for me...snapping up some euro at 1.3070, and short usd/jpy at 83.18. That dip at the moment is being related to a strike, i find that hard to swallow as they are still selling as i write this.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 17:35 | 853978 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

and short usd/jpy at 83.18

 

Be careful, that trade ended (regardless of USD fundamentals) since the last day of last yr..

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 11:32 | 852505 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Cue HarryWanger with a 'Look people, the economic numbers are wildly improving' post in 3.....2......1......

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 11:40 | 852534 pat53
pat53's picture

The bears had better hope it isn't anywhere near that number, but it will be good enough to send the Dow up 150 points.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 11:49 | 852557 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Actually, I hope it is.  It will discredit the BLS even more.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 11:43 | 852543 No Mas
No Mas's picture

Ah, good ol' Sheeple DogOne, grazing with the herd, feeling all part of the pack, sucking up to the great leader and dissin' all who disagree.

It is hard to have one's reality smacked around on a daily basis, but sooner or later those with a functioning brain come to see reality and leave their fantasies behind.

If Harry chooses to post, his post will be one of reason and reality.  He writes as though he lives in the real world and is quite content with its composition.

Now, back the herd Sheeple DogOne.  There is grass to chew and a shepherd to please.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 11:52 | 852574 What a mess_man
What a mess_man's picture

oh boy now you went and did it.  Cue SheepDog-No Mas flame war in 3...2...1...

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 13:17 | 852969 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

YEA NoMas, its all imaginary and like you say 'all is well' actually!

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 11:46 | 852546 Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Honestly, why not just make it 1,000,000?

If you're going to lie big you might as well just go it all, right?

How the fuck can you even try to pass this number as legit?

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 11:47 | 852552 Hondo
Hondo's picture

This is pure nonsense....regression model using ADP numbers....what a joke.......I use a regression model based on how many time in a 14.5 hours period a bear shits in the woods....the number comes out much lower........we'll see tomorrow who's model is better.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 11:50 | 852569 jesse livermoore
jesse livermoore's picture

what will that number do to the PM trade?

 

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 12:16 | 852681 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

That number is just a bit of a joke. But the PM longs are being pulled regardless, its a new year thing i suppose. We have went from "good news is bad news" for the dollar to "good news is good news" in the space of a microsecond, there is something in the air. Can it last? Depends on how much good news we get. But if that kind of reversal holds up, that's "sort of serious", and people may want to place funds elsewhere other than PM's(can‘t see them taking a licking, maybe just seen the best of the returns for a while). I am short gold from $1,402, i don’t have a target as such, just keeping my ear to the ground about what’s actually going down here...could it be the start of something beautiful? (i have a breakeven stop, just in case it's not...)

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 12:42 | 852805 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Isn't the NFP the usual cue to silver traders from JPM they're shorting?

 

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 12:08 | 852631 Astute Investor
Astute Investor's picture

My econometric model indicates Dec NFP of +16,300,000

U-6 unemployment rate of 0.0%

However, despite this improvement in employment, the economy recovery remains fragile and QE2 must continue.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 12:44 | 852821 sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

Explain how you can make all of the long-term folks disappear.

 

 

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 13:02 | 852912 Lord Blankcheck
Lord Blankcheck's picture

Like birds falling from the sky.Anyone looking for employment or recieving unemployment benifits.Will have their hearts will explode for no apparent reason.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 13:17 | 852978 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

They got it all figured out! If you complain, your guts become liquified....1 less statistic to worry about!

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 13:32 | 853012 sethstorm
sethstorm's picture

100+ weeks here and have only seen statistical disappearances, not literal. ;)

The longer that employers ignore the unemployed, the more that they're paying for a non-productive person - through taxes.  The solution is there, but they don't want the unemployed in a position of power.

 

 

 

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 13:10 | 852944 KCMLO
KCMLO's picture

I've been a lurker here for a while but I'm curious now.  Could an "improved" jobs picture be the final nail in the coffin for the Fed/Dollar?  I'm probably missing the whole picture, but if the jobs report is successful in pulling in retail money back into equities, and dealers are more than happy to dump their treasuries: equities balloon, bonds are crushed (so yields go up), TARP money recipients pull their deposits with the FED to chase returns, then the Fed starts bleeding money due to bond losses?  QE2 continues unabated and the Fed prints more and more money just to cover QE purchases and cover it's losses.  Do I have that right at all?

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 14:32 | 853320 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

I think the big-boy traders are smart enough to know what the truth is and not take large positions based on what comes out of the BLS. I think the response will be muted, but I will be interested to read what the enormous job growth is attributed to and what sectors it is in.

Thu, 01/06/2011 - 19:02 | 854214 KCMLO
KCMLO's picture

Completely agree on the bigboys just curious if they'll view it as an opportunity to make a play considering a "huge" growth in jobs might sucker in a lot of small investors thinking the market is good again.  I guess we would have to have more than one month's numbers to give that psyche to small investors, I'm just theorizing I suppose!

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