NY Fed Finds No Wide-Ranging Risk To Financial System From BP Exposure, Which Likely Means It Is Panic Time

Tyler Durden's picture

A Reuters source has reported that the New York Fed has looked into BP counterparty exposure and "gave banks' exposure to BP a
passing grade,"
Of course, since this is coming from the Fed, whose tremendous track-record of predicting catastrophes of all shapes and sizes, such as subprime, the credit bubble, the dot com bubble, the August 2007 quant crash, and the 5/6 flash crash, and many others, is immaculate, this almost certainly means it is now time to panic. We are confident that the FRBNY in fact has discovered just the opposite. Why else would they be looking at this issue if they did not have credible concerns of a domino effect on a possible BP bankruptcy.

From Reuters:

 The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has been probing major financial firms' exposure to BP Plc to ensure that if the oil giant buckles under the costs of the Gulf oil spill, it won't put Wall Street or the global financial system at risk, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

After pouring over documents and asking banks about their exposure to BP over the past two weeks, the Fed found no systemic risk, and hasn't asked firms to alter their credit relationships with BP, the sources told Reuters.

"The Fed gave banks' exposure to BP a passing grade," said one of the sources on condition of anonymity.

Beyond's BP survival prospects, the Fed examination underscores market uncertainty about how the spill's staggering clean-up bill might affect Wall Street, a fragile economic recovery, or the multitrillion dollar energy market.

Should the unexpected happen, and BP file for bankruptcy, the economic stakes are huge, potentially affecting the portfolios of some of the world's top banks and funds, not to mention up to 23,000 American jobs, the price of oil, and the easy credit that banks give to big oil companies.

After being subject to harsh criticism for regulatory lapses in the run-up to the financial crisis, the Fed has worked to expand its policing of system-wide financial risk.

The examination came as some banks that trade with BP ran their own models to gauge losses if BP eventually fails to meet credit obligations.

"We would be fine," said one London-based banker, whose bank buys credit default swap (CDS) protection before it enters any long-term swaps with BP.

The cost of those swaps have surged ten-fold since late April, lifting the price BP must pay to trade with the bank.

Other BP's trading partners have already restricted the duration of trades they do with the firm, whose portfolio gives it the largest footprint in energy markets among oil majors.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch ordered oil traders to limit the time frame of oil trades with BP to one year. Last week, a firm that trades multi-year electricity swaps with BP followed suit, telling traders to cut back swaps to one year, a source told Reuters.

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JenkinsLane's picture

Quality headline Tyler

Muir's picture



HAL: I've just picked up a fault in the AE35 unit. It's going to go 100% failure in 72 hours.




Mitchman's picture

Of course there's no problem.  They'll just funnel CDS money to BP through AIG.

LoneStarHog's picture

Are there no PhDs at the FBNY to assure all the neophyte pseudo-economist bloggers?

johngaltfla's picture

Are there no PhDs at the FBNY to assure all the neophyte pseudo-economist bloggers?


That thar is one FUNNNNNIEEEE comment-:)

kaiserhoff's picture

Ah yez, the ultimate contrarian indicator..., mouthings of the Federal Reserve.

downwiththebanks's picture


Time to nationalize the NY Fed and purge it of the evil parasites there now.

WaterWings's picture

Then turn it into a museum so future generations know the consequences of fractional reserve banking.

MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

Turn it into a MAUSOLEUM so future generations know the consequences of fractional reserve banking...

(I can't resist good wordplay)

divide_by_zero's picture

Stuff and mount present occupants for realistic displays

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Hmmm...I like your idea.  To think that I merely wanted to burn it down.  How selfish of me.

onlooker's picture

Tyler, great report.

bingaling's picture

I guess BP going bankrupt will be the crisis to sell QE2 to Joe Sixpack . How else would you get people to destroy their own futures or their grandchildren's for that matter ?

Ragnarok's picture

They've already got Krugman out there trial ballooning too.

Instant Wealth's picture

Never believe in anything until it has been officially denied.

(Otto von Bismarck)

aldousd's picture

NOT too big to fail! Next! (Take that, England.)

curbyourrisk's picture

So does that mean it is OK for the US to let BP go?  Or do we need to ring fence the North American assets and protect them the way we protected all of our banks??

MGA_1's picture

Everythings ok, the recovery's here... wait, wait, we need to purchase $3 Trillion of bad debt ! Quick !

chet's picture

We know what's coming.  Why don't they just bail them out now and get it over with.

chumbawamba's picture

It's good to know the oil rupture in the space-time continuum has been repaired so we can move on to discussing such important topics as who gets to get a bunch of money from this catastrophe of Biblical proportions.

Whew!  I thought we were goners there for a moment.

I am Chumbawamba.

peripatetic86's picture

Panic time?  Not for those who are waiting for the system to get it over with and finally cleanse itself of all these awful toxin agents.

MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

Yeah, it appears that flouride didn't agree with you so well.  Thanks for "wandering" by, peri!  ;)

Muir's picture

 A foreign substance is introduced into our precious bodily fluids without the knowledge of the individual. Certainly without any choice. That's the way your hard-core Commie works.

Alethiometer's picture

This is precisely why I drink only wood-grain alcohol and rain water.  Lately, I've found myself imbibing the former for hydration.

jdh2358's picture

Well, I've been to one world fair, a picnic, and a rodeo, and that's the stupidest thing I ever heard come over a set of earphones. You sure you got today's codes?


Damn these math problems are hard.

EscapeKey's picture
NY Fed Finds No Wide-Ranging Risk To Financial System From Timothy Geithner Exposure, Which Likely Means It Is Panic Time
Thoreau's picture

Of course it won't hurt the economy; the vampire squid does not range that far south!

AR15AU's picture

They know that Tim is looking to acquire an oil major.  :)

pq7's picture

Seems bankrupcy of BP is imminent.

sheeple's picture

I suggest you panic

Catullus's picture

The lew Rockwell corollary: take anything the government says and assume the opposite.

cougar_w's picture

Should the unexpected happen, and BP file for bankruptcy

Wait ... did that really say "unexpected"?

Oh I get it, that's shorthand for "should BP not accept our proposal to prop them up with taxpayer money so we can use them as another conduit, this time to funnel $100B in bailout money to LA, MI and FL coastal counties and cities."

Yeah, that kind of unexpected. Okay I'm good.

Rusty_Shackleford's picture


If there was one thing those Nazi's were good for, it was some kick-ass slapstick comedy.



DoctoRx's picture

No need to stop with coastal areas.  The I-4 corridor across Florida has lots of votes.  Certainly Orlando could use some conduit $$. 

And don't neglect Alabama, though the administration might want to forget about both it and Miss.  LA and FLA are the battleground states in 2012 of that grouping.

Wolfman Jack's picture

Here's a simple solution to the leak which I've emailed to BP and several elected officials:

IMAGINE A STEEL UMBRELLA -- UPSIDE DOWN AND CLOSED -- being forced head-first into the hole from which the oil is spewing, then beyond by 100 feet or more, past the ocean's crust and into the oil reserves. A very long string of connected piping would propel the mechanical "umbrella" along its proper path.
THEN, WELL BENEATH THE OCEAN'S DAMAGED FLOOR, the mechanical "umbrella" is slowly opened, still upside-down, and as gently as humanly possible, allowed to rise and cover the damaged crust from below. Oil pressure alone will keep the patch in place and that will solve the leak!

I've also suggested a slight variation of the above, using a deflated weather balloon and piping to propel the balloon thru the damaged hole and into the recesses of oil, where it is filled with a liquid that will solidify quickly (such as cement, but I'm sure there are better compounds that  could be used). Then, once the balloon's content hardens, it is pulled upward to the crust's damaged undersurface, at which time the hole is plugged automatically and permanently (since the balloon is too large to fit through the hole).

Thanks for allowing me to post these somewhat off-topic remarks. I very much appreciate all the great topics and comments on this board. Keep up the good work!

cougar_w's picture

The umbrella or balloon would have to resist about 9,000 lb/sqin net pressure from all that rock overhead. Nothing that can fold won't fold up under that kind of pressure.

The cavern is not hollow. The well is not a soda straw. This hole was once plugged up with 24,000 feet of solid rock (at least), anything short of that is not going to plug it back up.

You won't win against nature in this scenario with anything less than something absolutely titanic in scope.

And that's their problem. They cannot do anything large enough fast enough. There might not be enough "big ass mo'fo hammer" anywhere on earth to pull it off.

All hope it seems now rests on the relief wells.

bigdumbnugly's picture

i've done a pretty good job of plugging up the pipes here in my bathroom.  Lemme have a crack at it.

i can just see the monument they would erect in my honor now...

bigdumbnugly's picture

"the thinker" comes to mind.

StychoKiller's picture

A brillant future awaits you in stand-up comedy (or is that sit-down?)!

Japhy Ryder's picture

If BP goes under, then does GB go under with it ?

GB has much more to lose than USA.

Fazzie's picture

 Heres my take on the Feds failing to pretty much ever see a systemic risk in anything until its too late and costs trillions.

  Their purely academic research conducted by the likes of our doctorate holding buddy( when he isnt busy releasing papers on how dumb bloggers are) is flawed in some way that fails to detect future potential risks.  All the dumb statistical models conclude that indeed there is not serious risk right now,in the present. This is either by accident, apathy or design.

     The Fed thinks releasing this report will calm the markets in spite of their deplorable track record.

     If subsequently, BP goes belly up and starts taking down huge banks with it, then the Fed will dutifully run their model again and release a report saing that BP is TBTF and must be bailed out.

     Now they never lied, at the time according their best estimate BP posed no systemic risk but the "complex dynamics" changed in the interim.

   Its the ol "Shit happens" "No one saw it coming " defense. You cant make them fire anybody or fix their statistical models or even reveal their methology or anything like that because that would threaten the independence of the Fed.

    The fact that countless bloggers saw it coming couldnt be more inmaterial to them, bloggers are dumb hacks who might get lucky sometimes in their view.


MarketTruth's picture

"You never want a serious crisis to go to waste." -- Rahm Emanuel

Perfect excuse, as said by another ZH'er, for BP to go and then insert QE2 and massive funds to 'save America'. Hey, the US Government could even then better promote the "Save America" bonds so stupid folks could be fleeced for money they get from QE2. Think of it like another way of monetizing the debt, yet they are now stealing directly from stupidly willing taxpayers pockets.

jkruffin's picture

I encourage everyone to start calling and mailing your Senators and Congressmen today, tomorrow and every day after that, making it very clear that the American people WILL NOT bail out these companies again, and if they vote in favor of doing such, then hell will reign down on D.C. from the people.  Tell them if they value their jobs, and their status, they will not let it happen again. 

If a stimulus is going to be done, the money goes to the PEOPLE period.  If we are going to finance another catastrophe, and bailing out banks obviously does not solve the problem, but makes it worse, then we should give ourselves the money.  Add up how much Benny has spent on the banks and GSE's, AIG and Citibank, and every taxpayer could recieve at least 100K to get out of debt and help jumpstart this economy the right way.

We all know its wishful thinking, but it still needs to be made very clear to these politicians they are not in control of America.  The people are.  We need to get back to grassroots protesting and take our country back.

downwiththebanks's picture

Unfortunately, the public will suck it down again, jk.

Government exists to cover the asses of the corporations that own it.  Until people break from the two-party dictatorship, it will keep on happening.

SmittyinLA's picture

I can't imagine the stretegic thinking folks allowing BP to go down, they did after all intentionally collapse the US economy to lower oil prices and "punish Russia" (Remember Condi over Georgia?), bankrupting BP would do just the opposite, and the Russians would gleefully buy even more global oil assets.

On the flipside if our govt is completely compromised they may intentionally bankrupt BP to faciliate the sale of BP assets to Russians & Chinese-the most likely buyers.

williambanzai7's picture

Is this another report written by Mr Crackpot Urethra?