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If this was all to get out of hand, and huge losses accumulated over a week or two (think 1987), it would not surprise us if this Administration steps in, and shuts the markets down for a couple of days (similar to 9/11). This youthful (socialistic) Administration is deathly affraid of "uncontrolled chaos" like the market's experienced last year and into March. We'd expect this. Commodity traders have traded "limit locked" markets, few equity traders have.
Recommendations?
Buy! Buy! Buy!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
you just made my day
JIM / Those of us who have lived through such chaotic circumstances, know that the first rule, is to review your risk management profiles, and update them for your style of investing (personal or corporate). Don't take big risk here. It's our opinion that we are currently at a large potential turn (juncture) in the markets. We have positioned our portfolios for the worst, and are willing to miss upside opportunities into year-end in order to preserve and protect our very generous gains to date (i.e. we are not going to give back profits made this year). We may not get any return on our cash, but, we will not lose money (only missed opportunities). We are currently 0% long, 20% short (and will look to add to shorts if our thesis is correct), and 80% liquid. This is not the time to be a hero or a cowboy. We did that in early March through mid September. These are tenuous times due to government's unprecedented intervention policies. Make sure you can sleep at night (a cliché, but we've had spec positions go against us, in markets that are thin and hard to get out - it is painful). We think the dollar is very key (i.e. if it goes higher), thus forcing participants to unwind some of the last 3-5 months of its' dollar carry trades. This we feel would cause great imbalances in the market on inverse related macro trades. Our recommendation? Be smart. Don't be greedy. Most of all, have your stops in and be disciplined in your trading. Out of control markets are exciting, but they're disastrous if you're on the wrong side of them when they occur. Manage your exposure, and risk. Sorry to be so long winded. Good luck.
I assume by "liquid" you mean dollar-cash. Well, what if things happen opposite to what you expect i.e. the dollar crashes instead of rising in the currency markets and against Gold? Have you though about that contingency? Wouldn't it be ironical if the the very thing you consider to be so "safe" might turn out to be the most dangerous place of all? The SAFEST position right now is REAL CASH i.e. Physical Gold in your personal possession. As long as you are holding any significant amount of dollars you have NOT "positioned your portfolio for the worst". Currency risk is a very real and significant risk right now and most people are not even thinking about it right now, which is why it will be all the more devastating - even to savvy traders such as yourself. The lifeboat of paper cash is about as safe as a ticking nuclear bomb right now.
Great points Gordon. By "liquid" we do not mean dollar denominated cash, but rather shorter term instruments that provide us with cash equivalent safety. We struggle on a daily basis moving assets around whereby they are not subject to devaluation by currency fluctuations (it is a difficult task). We also agree with your statement that "Currency risk is a very real and significant risk right now and most people are not even thinking about it right now." In fact, few in our universe consider the impact of your point, not to mention it is becoming harder to find the safety, considering the increasing instability of the entire system (worldwide). PS: Longer term, in premise, we agree that the dollar trades lower (we're on th.
My Man Gordon, always on it!
The Paper Ponzi Zombies are about to wake up to find all their glorious paper wealth has evaporated right before their very eyes.
HA! HA! HA!
GOT GOLD SUCKAS!
AWSOME.....LOL...YOU MADE MY DAY DUDE.
A RUMOUR ABOUT CRASH WILL BE SO NICE TO CHEER MY MOOD. A CRASH WILL REALLY DO IT.
In the chaos/panic that's about to ensue I wouldn't be surprised - in fact I expect it - one of these days to find the Gold market "locked limit" to the upside.
If so much selling is going on, how come the DOW is only down 63 points, S & p down 7.5, Nasdaq 9.1?
You would think there would be a crash if selling is so bad! Of course, I am definitely no expert on the markets.
Just curious.
I second that... can somebody knowledgeable please help clarify the apparent incongruence between the content of this post and actual market action which doesn't seem to indicate any kind of large selloff?
Where you read volume understand order volume not total share volume. Sometimes algos can go nuts (on purpose?) and send thousands of single round lot orders in a second followed by cancelations. Processing that stupidity takes time and may cause backlogs in various points in the system that is not specd for such spikes.
Maybe, but the NYSE is getting hammered. It's down 1.3% so far.
Believe it or not cbxer55, there's a buyer for every share that sold this morning. Every single one.
Are all those buyers named FrED?
Or do specialists still exist?
Banco Festiva!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=frLdjzEx4gI&feature=PlayList&p=BE64C3B11F8A3F5D&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=46
Thread music
Is volume up significantly?
It could be stale data but Google makes it look like avg total volume. Perhaps there are lots of spikes? Maybe someone with a terminal can elaborate...
SPY 10/28 10/29 10/30
9:45 138k 187k 211k
10:00 134k 107k 184k
However, for most subsequent 15 min timeframes, today's volume is less. Who knows how much is due to less interest versus order processing issues.
You can almost hear the NYSE saying "Nothing to see here. Move along, move along."
Duncan is getting his buddies to the front of the line.
intesifying selling??? 80 point down? right.
We've touched on this before. They will be pulling out all stops to slow downward action.
PPT phase 2
This is not looking bullish at all. I expected another rally today but guess everyone decided to sell into it. Instead of the standard JATO launch chart we're getting the tug of war chart. Who do you think is selling? Can't be retail inv.
Retail investors haven't fogged a mirror in over a year.
Think the big boys are loaded up short? Almost looks like the bots have been turned off.
You're right. This move downwards - despite the bears' hopes otherwise - is being definitely condoned by "da boyz".
Minor glitch with a beta version of the new SellBot5000. Nothing to worry about.
Get back in there and turn those machines back on!!!!!
All I can say is SLB is a MESS
Well hell, there goes the cash I wanted to make today to put down on Talladega and the World Series. I hate it when I have to use my own money.
I'm being told to not route thru the NYSE until further notice.
What is today's CNBC Happy Face on this incipient debacle? It's Halloween!
All for naught:
“NYSE sees little impact from high-frequency probe”
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/id...
“SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro said this week that there was “a lot of concern” about high-frequency trading. The regulator plans to issue a discussion paper on the issue early next year and proposals by the middle of 2010.”
NYSE issue supposedly resolved
http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKN3030069620091030
Does anyone have a comment on the bid/ask of Silver Wheaton? Bid is $12.60 and Ask is $12.28. What's up with that?
Does anyone have a comment on the bid/ask on Silver Wheaton? Bid is $12.60 and ask is $12.28. What's up with that? Trading at the ask.
real world bid...central bank offer
Does anyone have a comment on the bid/ask on Silver Wheaton? Bid is $12.60 and ask is $12.28. What's up with that? Trading at the ask.
Has any of you actually been making money over the last couple of months? I have just lost money, either long or short. I just have this inner feeling that it is impossible to do anything in today's market unless you are GS or JPM... but then a lot of the comments hear at ZH sound as if the posters had managed to do well.
This week's action should have scared the last remaining retail investor shitless. Big banks should just put a disclaimer on the market and say that whatever happens, the money the retail investor puts in is gone. No matter what the portfolio make look like, there is no money behind it.
What a complete and utter fuck up.
If any retail investor is stupid or ignorant enough to still keep money in the stock "market" after two major crashes this decade and the revelation of the FRAUD that Wall Street and Corporate America is then they deserve to lose their money. A fool and his money are soon parted.
after fasb / congress eliminated mark to market
i knew that stocks were an utterly foolish
"investment"
for years officially sanctioned accounting
fraud has grown but that was the straw which
broke the camel's bank....
financial reports are designed to obscure, mislead,
and defraud....without sound financial reporting
there is no way to intelligently invest....
add that fed and government control of markets
it becomes reckless to "invest."
PAPER PONZI ZOMBIES MAY BE PARTED FROM THEIR STUPID FAKE PAPER MONEY AND PAPER STOCKS. BUT THATS THEIR PROBLEM.
HA! HA! HA!
GOT GOLD, PAPER PONZIE SUCKAS!
When a large oil company behave like tech stock look for the exits. Yesterday up 6% now down 5% on average volume and no news.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PBR&t=5d
all of the markets are very choppy - gold, oil,
currency, stocks....this is a classic sign
of instability leading to sell offs...
Lets see....Nasdaq volume (which is seperate from the NYSE) is 15% lower then at the same point yesterday (20 Min Delay). I love you Tyler but you got to be careful with a "sky is falling" post.
looks like "change" is going to come to america whether we like it or not and whether we want it or not. AHHAAHAHAHAHAH...woooooooooohooooo!
Why do these glitches never happen on up days