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NYSE Short Interest Drops 3.5%, 42.5% Below Peak
On October 9, the NYSE provided its latest Short Interest update. The total number of shorted shares on the New York Stock Exchange at September 30 was 13.06 billion, a 3.5% decline from the 13.52 billion on September 15, a 42.5% decline from the all time high short position of 18.61 billion on July 15, 2008, and a 23.8% decline from the 2009 high of 16.17 billion in mid-March. The latest short interest represented a mere 3.42% of the total share outstanding as more and more bearish bets are closed, either voluntarily or forcefully. The current SI is equal to the short interest at the end of 2007.
Assuming a $20.50 average NYSE stock price, the decline from the March high has added $63 billion in often indiscriminate offer lifting power.
The second half of September saw the following stocks with the largest increase in SI:
- Rite Aid: 70.9%
- Coke: 45.3%
- Baker Hughes: 39.3%
- Eastman Kodak: 29.9%
- Altria: 18.8%
The SI decline was largest at these five companies:
- Johnson Controls: -73.7%
- Citigroup: -33.6%
- MGM Mirage: -36%
- Las Vegas Sands: -24.7%
- Exxon Mobil: -23.1%
A graphic representation of the moment of the NYSE short interest through the last 3 years.
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Just means that there are fewer people to stop the fall when it begins. The same thing that happened when they banned short selling last year.
Oh yeah...that really stopped people from shorting. Deutsche made a couple B shorting financials last fall and got fined 500K (not by the SEC, of course, but the Big Board itself). Tip of Mount Everest I'm sure. I'll take that margin any day thank you. Get educated.
http://www.deepcapture.com/deutsche-bank-sold-massive-amounts-of-phantom-stock/
It isn't about shorting.
Who wouldn't be long on casino stocks at this point? Who isn't planning a lavish gambling vacation right now? I know I am.
And giving away rooms at a 75% discount is a great new business model for them. Reminds me of the internet days: give away the product for free and figure out the business model later....
Hey Mary, think you can get forensic now will all the short noise drowned?
another stat pointing toward a downward move. this should be counter-intuitive
Aurum,
You are correct. Very intuitive on your part
I agree. Earlier this year shorting the market was futile as everyone was doing it, then quickly covering, driving the market upward.
Scary.
Sort of like when you're riding a roller coaster for the first time and you've just reached the top, and you have no idea of what to expect next...
anyone have this in % terms, i bet its even scarier if the denominator of outstanding shares were shown given the massive amounts of dilution since 2007.
TD, are you tired of being short?
he doesn't disclose his positions.
I say that as I am short and I don't give much credibility to someone unless they have skin in the game. Somehow Tyler thinks he is above reproach.
dude, it is better to just STFU and not be considered stupid, then to open your mouth and remove all doubt. How can you even conclude someones position ( or lack, thereof ) from this post in which NOTHING is said about it. You people need to ease of on the speculation ( about EVERYTHING ) and stop making up BS claims like the one above. ( Can you tell from this post if im 6ft 2 or 6ft 3 ? )
Actually, I'd guess from the pointless bluster in most of your posts that you're 5ft 2.
Seen on a coffee mug at GS:
I read zerohedge and now I have zeromoney
this blog makes money, let's invest in that. or click on some banners.
????????????????
you must be a pro-trader.
Rhinotrader... I don't think Tyler thinks he is above reproach... he offers information with his own commentary... but never suggests people go short in this market... geez... how big are your short positions... they clearly are causing you to lose sleep and get out of bed on the wrong side... hopefully listening to the Biderman clip today was helpful... since he continues to have a moderate number of short positions. I am really sorry that you are upside down in this market... but hopefully at some point in the near future that will change :-) BTW... I have skin in the game... so mark me down for some credibility :-)
You think Tyler Durden is one person?
And you only listen to people that have the same position as you?
Eastman Kodak: 29.9%
Why ? They are obsolete, poorly run, with no solutions, no needed products; WTF are they up 30 % ?
maybe they have pictures of somebodies....lol!
maybe something like this http://fromtheleft.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/barney_frank_the_man_pimp_by_conservatism.jpg
that's funny shit cb!
Where can I obtain information that shows short interest. I see that the link in the main posting is a NYSE link however I could not locate company specific interest as shown. THanks in advance!
AOL finance has historic short interest. Weird eh, who knew AOL was still a player capable of besting google and yahoo.
http://finance.aol.com/company/exxon-mobil-corporation/xom/nys/short-int...
try the SEC website or just call them and let them mail it to you; but mind you, they will not disclose the identity of those holding the short interest in a particular stock.
CNN also shows short interest on stocks.
http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=X
Is there a way to correlate the short interest graph over the S&P index on a chart?
RALLY ON BITCHES!
look at the dates
last time we were here it was a great shorting opp
everyone is long...this short int ratios prove it
no more bears left to keep bidding stocks up
The BATS Exchange posts daily Short Interest for trades handled on its exchange. BATS is not the entire market, but its volume is in the top 5 of exchanges.
http://www.batstrading.com/market_data/shortsales/
Short interest now is misleading. A lot of shorts are purely synthetic shorts. Options, swaps, etc. All this short interest is not accounted for anywhere (especially OTC options and swaps).
Swaps are huge, and institutional in nature. They are mark to market instruments (sort of like futures) with no physical delivery in the end.
Looking at short interest is looking at smaller shorts (retail) and people who prop up their real derivatives shorts.
I know that in fixed income, seasoned swaps are not sold, similar swap is entered to offset the risk. I don't know what happens in equity swaps, but I would assume it's the same thing. All those bear ETFs are basically portfolios of swaps and options, those are not going away, and those just mature or expire (no need to cover).
Short interest just has a negative correlation to NYSE composite, big deal, market went up. What is not known, however, is if there is a huge portfolio of concentrated "short equity" swaps some institution or institutions are holding. The opposite side of that trade may not do anything 99% of the time, because all one has to do is mark the market to the settlement date of the swap maturity (that info would not be available to people not involved in that swap). One can have a huge shadow equity market with this (this is actively happening in Asian markets), and it could have spread to US.
With the shadow market, who knows what's happening on the tip of the iceberg, which is what exchange traded equities represent. In bonds that's exactly what was happening. The bonds and visible fixed income was factors smaller then the "side bets" through various synthetic vehicles. Since equity market is much smaller and impact of one player is significant, who is to say there could not be a melt up as a result of all those backroom transactions?
I mean, the actual money changing hands in public is tiny versus swings in p&l on those contracts, and there is a clear liquidity arbitrage when those situations arise. Hell, we can hit S&P 2,500 just like we've hit 666, and this time the actual money changing hands vs potential reward is absolutely tiny. Who will complain, and in the end there will not be major sellers either. Perfect victimless crime when the US benefits. Could that be happening? It's possible, the bonds showed the black market was bigger then the actual market, why the stocks are different? Given enough money thrown the company's way, things can really change inside the company. It's a vrituous cycle, albeit achieved by the illegal means.
this is an excellent series of points. however, wouldn't the MOMO traders such as Getco, etc be short in the traditional sense, such as how this article portrays, as opposed to syntheitcs (swaps, etc)?
Traditional shorts abide by liquidity, exchanges, rules and regulations. Swaps don't. CIT has more CDS then debt outstanding. In a bonds world that's equivalent to equity world's short interest being bigger then shares outstanding (not even the float). In a retarded situation, I can strike swaps where I receive equity returns (long) to the tune of several times shares outstanding in the dollar amount. Swaps notional is not at risk, everything in a swap is a P&L, no margin requirements, no reporting, no regulation. I'm long the company several times over. All I have to do at settlement date is send a major order (say 20% of the float) to settle at the price I want. My swap expires after that close and all I have is 20% of the float that I will lose less on then I made on the swap. I never have to get out of the shares that the swap represented, my counterparties are different firms, so they all think I just have a big position, but nobody knows my true size. I think it's been done on the short end, and now maybe done on the long end if some macro funds want big short equity positions. Getcos are just the exchange traders, this is OTC. In this example they will too make money shorting my 20% f the float order, and thinking how good they are and what an idiot I am for giving them stupid price. In fact, some macro fund or insurance companies that "hedged" are the losers of the scam.
It's basically very strange that CDS get coverage, and equity swaps don't. There is no reason for having equity swaps in the first place. You want a stock, buy it, think you are smart, short it. Here it's just a loophole that originally was created to avoid margins, mark to market and taxes. It all started with a valid instrument -- interest rate swap, and degenerated to CDS being shorts on bonds, and equity swaps as manipulator's paradise.
I guess the nest leg up will cost Kamikaze Ben quite a bit more, he got the 7 month short squeeze rally on the cheap.
I think all of that is becoming irrelevant with the free fall of the dollar. The futures are up a huge 9 points(it never seeze to amaze me how you can play that game with market makers having your stop losses).Obviously gaping up the market will have all the Elliot Wavers stop losses being passed,forcing them into another squeeze. And then we come to the rule of unintended consequences:I personally think the controlled demolition of the dollar is becoming uncontrolled. With oil passing the $75 threshhold,it is only a matter of few days before we hit (anybody's guess). Then what do we have?either currency crisis(Jim Rogers prediction with amazing timing accuracy of OCTor NOV),or stagflation in the U.S. And we pass the deflation period that everybody was expecting. NOw what is the futures?Of course that bubble too will burst,but not with the fed insisting that liquidity stays in. Now does it make sense with all this(futures up and Euro/dol is at this high)that yields are down?I think the fed is insisting on sending the message to the market:we are letting you all know that we are monetizing,so get out of the dollar. And the market is obliging..........
if my eyes are not failing me, it looks like we are roughly at the same level of Short Interest of the last few weeks of Feb 09 and first few weeks of March 09. What has followed is history (666-1090 spx). So even keeping in mind the $ move I would be very careful to use this indicator as a sign of an impending serious correction, which in my humble opinion is anyway long due