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With NYSE Short Interest At The Lowest Level In Years Following A Record Short Collapse... Who Will Be The Bid?
One of the cute side-effects of the Fed's third mandate has been the successful elimination of all market shorts. A quick update of the NYSE short interest indicates not only the deplorable presence of shorts in the market (those entities who provide a natural bid when the market is plunging), but that the bulk of the market meltup over the past several months has been due exclusively to shorts covering existing positions. Well, with short interest now at a multi-year low of 12.4 billion shares (lowest since 2007), compared to 14.5 billion just after the Flash Crash, a 13.6 billion average over the period, and the lowest amount since the Lehman failure, our only question is when the market plunges, like it is doing today, who will be the natural short covering bid when stocks are in freefall?
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The Fed will
+1. Thank you for pointing out the obvious to Tyler.
I hope they buy the whole damn stinking pile.
Indeed. But so far, it would appear someone has not read The Beard's 'No Bad Days' memo.
lol check out CNBC hiding the commodities prices
I liked it better this morning when they decided the best thing to talk about was sports.
Zee new jerman manajment.
All your crap are belong to us.
Hündinnenzzzz
Well, more specifically, the Sackster's little greased ES monkeys. Just add arbitrage and serve....
22/2=11
I on the bid for NFLX at $50 ;)
www.silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com
Problem is, not even Ben can take on the market in a large breadth decline. It'll be like a dam breaking - the dam that used to be able to keep it all together. Do the math if you don't believe me, its just not possible. But I agree they'll die tryin'....
Bennie and the Inkjets must be running on fumes today - Oh POMO me not, on the lone prair-ie
Which is why they try to "manage expectations" to keep the job as small as possible on a daily basis. Their only goal is to avoid the stampede for as long as they can, so that they might steal yet another day, with the hope that they can eventually placate the herd, avoiding a stampede altogether.
I'd like to say that this is an impossibility, but after a century of government schooling, the herd may have enough inertia to resist saving itself, instead strengthening its resolve to remain in danger.
Much like a simple wooden fense is successful of keeping in a herd of cattle.
Much like the mere threat of a FNM/FRE bailout was enough to keep them alive.
Oh wait...
Said another way, the market appears to have been geared to discourage shorts and encourage retail. The problem is, whatever retail money is still willing, is in; while the shorts have covered massively. This dynamic can be blamed on the POTUS who showed his hand; and his minions (remember, "stocks are cheap" in March 2009?)
In other words, corruption at the highest level. Where does that leave an empire?
What makes you think that if the dam breaks, they'll print the real prices?
It's Bennie and the Jets.
um...Bennie Boy. that's who's going to hold the steaming pile of crap instead of retail who have declined the honor of giving the major banks what remains of their savings.
of course, Bennie Boy is going to offload this on the taxpayers (you don't think handlers are going to take the loss? how naive)...
so, the taxpayers. that's who.
Oh the horror, the horror.
It looks like Bennie and the PPT are dumping dollars, but this time it's not working.
@trav
Buying is not part of the Fed's exit strategy.
Correct, so BTFD
+$15T
Wait what, I was short this morning, seemed like a quick no-brainer. Tomorrow is another day.
OT - Mubarak suffering and debilitated by pancreatic cancer. No coma. Not yet.
I will believe it when he is dead.
My 6-day bout with pancreatitis (later, the removal of my gall bladder), tells me that it won't be a pleasant death!
I thought that the 8 billion a day in fed/PD money was also biding up the market.
this is a much bigger side effect than most realize
who will be the natural short covering bid when stocks are in freefall?
Don't play dumb. You know very well from whom (and where) the bid will come.
Could momo be reversing?
Fat chance. Buy the dip dummies!
And the follow-up question: who f*cking cares?
The sleepwalkers... they only rise from their slumbers when their 401k balances decrease significantly...
Q"who will be the natural short covering bid when stocks are in freefall?"
A. The same buyer on the way up - Benny and Brian.
Benny B
How about looking at company buy-backs and fund holdings for hints.
Lot's of free money available through various SHAFT and other relief progroms.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/02/21/through-a-lens-darkly/
This link has little to do with what zerohedge covers.. save your bandwidth and ditch the link.
Homer, I've been doing that for 40 weeks straight. I'm sure most people have figured out whether they like it or not with one visit.
Relevance is contextual.
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/06/10/in-dust-realization/
'contextual', tried it once at one of those adult clubs in montreal. it was alright.
Not so fast Junkers. Here are some links...do the math..
http://www.stocksandshares.tv/pfizer-nysepfe-plans-share-buyback/3203248
http://www.emoneydaily.com/general-dynamics-nysegd-share-buyback/6988431
http://www.takeoverchatter.com/2011/02/conocophillips-ups-dividend-sets-...
http://www.emailwire.com/release/57378-GlaxoSmithKline-NYSEGSK-announces...
sure you can find many more.
Many Dow stocks in there.
Makes sense doesn't it? free money to buy your own crap back onto your books.
Payback. Can't you see it?
ORI
Sure as fuck won't be Whitney Tilson buying back the NFLX shares he shorted, since he covered at the top.
+247.55
Guess one,must be the same as two and three.
Let's see, ummmmm The FED?
Do or die trying, pump up all equity holdings as the massive boomers need plump 401K's and IRA's to meet needs, in fact if the accounts get high enough, maybe these guys will start retirement sooner to free up their legacy jobs thus creating employee demand.
So I can make more money.........so I can buy more coke............so I can work longer...............so I can make more money.........
Bernanke=Pablo Escobar!!
HaHaHaHaHa!! Good ole Pablo> Love it. Milestones
COMP
Prices falling out of a Rising Wedge.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts-0
Let's not discount the HFT robots, they will be bid and ask, as usual.
Longs make money, shorts make money, Piigs (& dics) get slaughtered.
Can't we all just get along without everyone going long?
The real danger of shorts is JPM's ability to pile on with unlimited funds and force a market down so they can turn around and buy and keep the streak of days without a trading loss alive.
Sort of what happened in may 2010?
If it's Ben, then why isn't he buying now? The Fed doesn't buy stocks, they buy bonds and then some of the money they spend on the bonds finds its way into the stock market... but if there are reasons not to buy stocks, then the recipients of the free money will abstain from buying.
in order of the most recent developments..
the Fed is announcing one last major massive fucking POMO MOMO HOMO BIG BANG DA HOE event and GOES ALL IN!!
Hopefully David Tepper and John Paulson BTFD right into bankruptcy.
long commodities, short equities (especially emerg. markets) might be the play of this year.
BTFD is loosing steam
you can't eat gold is sooo 2010
"YOU CAN'T EAT OIL! is now!
You can eat gold and drink oil. It is physically possible to do so given reasonable portions. Whether it is good for you is another question.
Time to short the mother. I am voting for a top.after I voted against it after I voted for it.
Wow, we are seriously bouncing on the support here. If this breaks it's down to ~1295 from here.
Comrade Obama says BTFD.
Will the PTB again blame some firm for a fat finger sell orders today? OR will Wadell & Reed be blamed (again) for todays sell off?
I was thinking the same thing. Who will catch a falling knife, except a short.
Oh, I forgot we have Bennie Bucks. He will eat any losses.
Bennie is like the sin eater, in earlier times. He comes in and eats all of the sins of the Dead.
THAT is a very interesting chart. I'm reminded of the old commercials for one of those butter substitutes...
It's not nice to fool Mother Nature!
Hu and his (pboc) soverign wealth fund.
Ah, the Fed can buy and sell to itself. Problem solved. The real issue today is that someone called in sick at the Fed for a 4 day weekend. He will be disciplined tomorrow when he returns.
What fool is short ANYTHING in this market? Christ, I though the shorts would have learned their lesson quicker than this. I learned mine at the start of QE1. Pulled completely out of the market on both sides at that point, as the writing was on the wall.
Short capitulation, bitchez. Look at the chart
I guess I'm a fool then, but I don't care what people think. I have been long short for 4-7 months, and never covered a thing. I don't plan on covering until at least the fall of 2012. Sold small small caps that had been my only longs last week.
Not saying you should be long either. What I am saying is that being short in this market is like being short in the Zimbabwe market. You are shorting in terms of a collapsing currency. If you can manage to short in terms of gold, then you are on a path to making some nice returns.
I have owned gold and silver and plan to again. However, I'm betting there will be a better opportunity to buy it when the markets sell off big, and they spx is below 666.
Well, at least you are gambling with your own life.
Deflationary theory is going to end in tears.
I only believe that no one is right in this debate and everyone is right. The only thing seperating the def. and infl. is time. Both will be right at different times within the next 3 years.
You short things that are weak. And you time your shorts.
Average in. Only sell continued weakness. Don't get overextended. Do not be proud. You may be wrong once. You may be wrong twice. You may be wrong three times. Keep your losses on each bet small. Eventually you will catch a big move with a big position on and you will pay for all the false moves and more.
The important point is: Do not be proud!!!!!
gh
I like many others would love to short, but after shorting was blocked in 2008 for 3-4 weeks to ptotect the banks I only short commodites...
..like cotton at a 200 year high (no real demand increase to justify that price ;-)
Yep, with people selling the shirts off their backs to eat, why go long cotton?
There are a lot of double and triple short.etfs. check out soxs.
nobody holds those things overnight, and in the final outcome if really large money goes short they can't guarantee them move than 1:1 can they?
"nobody hold those overnight"?
If nobody held them overnight they would finish each day flat.
They may not exactly track 1:1, but they track. And they are cheap to trade.
Who holds anything that moves against them anyway??
gh
MEANTIME...President Obama is picking Corporate CEOS...
AOL Co-Founder Steve Case to Join Obama's Panel on Jobs, Competitiveness
http://www.entendance.com/forums/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=588&p=15651#p15651
DO OR DIE
how can it be do or die ye olde catfish mouth? what does the summation index tell us? that's your tour de main crash indicator, isn't it, or at least that's what you said last week. but then again this is a new week so you might have a new indicator since the wind might have shifted east versus the favorable westerly breeze.
btw: gentleman jim sinclair is sitting tall while sipping on a mint julip. the old scroomer, as you effectionately call him, sends his regards.
+1400
Oh shit....call out the national gaurd....the equity market lost 1 week of gains. Its now 1 day away from fresh highs.
Danger= bonds, homes or shorts....whats left---commodities and equities and lotsa pomo. I thought the Fed wanted bond yields to drop, homes to rise, commodities to flatline and equites to rise. Hmm, 1 outta 4 aint bad. Like baseball .250
two answers really, the first is the obvious answer, the PPT and Chm BB, the second answer is why worry, if the market crashes, we blame it on the computers and cancel the trades.
wasn't it naked short selling that was banned? i said naked!
geez, people have been waiting for this pullback for 6 months, lots of people will buy the dip, but people are looking for a decent pullback, not 2%
news flash, no yield in municipal bonds, corporate bonds, treasuries, etc., and not everyone is going to put all of their wealth in precious metals at all time highs
glad my largest position is xom
Yeah smart - you put your wealth in dollar denominated paper
and have made enough dollar denominated paper with dollar denominated paper to buy a whole bunch of things
yes, i am running low on toilet paper....(irony defined: a person who buys toilet paper with ...)
The mo stocks have backed off lately and the cash is going into the rank and file. Traders just can't ante up for these mo stocks (shades of 2001) and are rationalizing that the rank and file is priced more properly. The mo stocks always lead. At least we are getting a divergence.
Almost time for the 3:30 buying fairies
Who's covering? Shorty or the FEDERAl RESERVE (I.e. US TAX PAYER)? Just wondering. You know, privatized profits and socialized losses.....
LOL, I love the 2nd post, as if Tyler didn't know, he's making a point. Are you really that thick? Make the math questions harder.
Must close...green...gasp
Exhaustion gaps on the PM miners?
Bulls, beware! I don't expect to see a bounce until at least another 10 days:
http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/bulls-beware-today-was-a-very-rare-atypical-day