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Obama Must Create 230,000 Jobs A Month Until The End Of His Second Term For Return To Breakeven - Charting The New "7 Year Itch" Normal
Recently there has been a surge in cherry picked employment charts highlighting that the Obama administration has done a great job in rescuing the economy. The premise goes: after dropping to as much as 700K+ jobs lost per month, the administration has managed to pull off a miraculous recovery and now we are riding on a wave of 8 consecutive "private jobs" beats in a row. This argument is so shallow we won't even bother with it. Perhaps the "economists" who espouse this theory will be so kind in their next iteration of their charts to overlay the monthly US debt issuance side by side with the jobs number. Because you see if you drown the economy in unrepayable debt, while using transfer payments to fund the digging of trenches by every man, woman and child who makes up the labor pool, then yes - you may get 0%, or even negative, unemployment overnight. Will it bankrupt the country (even faster)? Why, of course. But whoever said those who discuss politics subjectively ever care about the long-term implications of reality. So in the vein of sharing pretty charts, here is one: we show job losses since the beginning of the Recession (excluding for the impact of census hiring), juxtaposed to the natural growth rate of the Labor Pool (and not the artificial one, which according to the BLS is the same now as it was a year ago). We discover that i) 7.6 Million absolute jobs have been lost since the beginning of the Recession; ii) that a record 10.5 Million jobs (and you won't find this statistic anywhere), have been lost when factoring in for the natural growth of the Labor Pool of 90-100K a month (we use the lower estimate, which also happens to be the CBO's estimate), and that iii) assuming we expect to return to the jobs baseline level as of December 2007 (or an unemployment rate of 5%) by the end of Obama's second term (and we make the big assumption there will be a second term), Obama needs to create 230,000 jobs each and every month consecutively from September through November 2016 in order for the total jobs lost to be put back into the labor force, and that iv) an optimistic (if more realistic) projection of jobs returning to the work force means the return the baseline will occur in 2019, some 7 years after the start of the last recession. The point of these observations is not to cast political blame on either party: we are in this predicament due to the combined stupidity, corruption and greed of both parties. The question is how do we get out of here. And unfortunately for all those hoping that a return to a normal, baseline past is possible, please forget it (i.e., the New Normal is really real), at least for the next 7 years. This also means that any charting, technical analysis and other "reversion to the mean" approaches of forecasting the future will all end up sorely lacking and misrepresenting the final outcome.
Chart 1: a simple baseline chart that shows where we were, where we are, and where we are going, with the assumption of recovering all labor force growth-adjusted jobs losses from December 2007 through the end of Obama's second term. The conclusion: the economy needs 229,300 jobs per mont (incidentally, for the simplistic read on the labor force which does not account for demographic changes, which economists tend to conveniently forget all too often, a 230K jobs pick up a month, means a recoupment of baseline jobs lost in June of 2013).
Chart 2: We demonstrate that the cumulative jobs lost since December 2007, are in fact materially greater when adjusting for a realistic change in the labor force, instead of that presented by the administration, which naively expect people to believe that the labor force in August 2010 (154,110) was lower than that in August 2009 (154,426). That in the meantime the US population grew by 2.5 million seems to make no difference to the administration. Which only means that sooner or later this labor force participation will catch up to the numbers. Either way, we factor for it, and assume that the labor force was growing by 90K every month since the start of the recession, and add the cumulative differential to the jobs lost. The result: in the 33 months through August, the US has lost not 7.6 million jobs, but 10.5 million: a stunning 38% delta.
Obviously, all these projections are unrealistic. So let's take them down to some version of reality... even if it is Bank of America's. We take the most optimistic Wall Street projetions we could find - traditionally those belong to Bank of America's Ethan Harris. In a note released to clients, Harris discusses his revised jobs forecast:
Under the weaker growth trajectory we are now penciling in:
- Private payrolls manage tepid monthly gains of just 25,000 through the end of 2010. As the growth recession fades in the second half of 2011, gains in private payroll employment should accelerate. We expect average monthly gains of 125,000 in the fourth quarter of 2011.
- Therefore, for most of 2010 and 2011, employment growth is not expected to keep up with the rise in the labor force, which means the unemployment rate heads north. We expect a steady increase to 10.1% by the second quarter with a slow fall slightly below 10.0% by the end of 2011.
So let's adjusted the chart using Bank of America's projections, which assumesa gradual increase in the unemployment rate to 10% by Q3 2010 and a decline since then. We chart these projections on the chart below. According to this adjusted case, the payroll number will never return to the December 2007 baseline for the duration of Obama's term, even if one assumes 200K job pick ups beginning in January 2012 and continuing every month thereafter (as we have done). In November 2016 we forecast an unemployment rate of 5.7% using these assumptions. They are presented visually below:
And just to demonstrate what the recession will look like assuming even this quite optimstic assumption, here is the famous post WW2 recession comparison chart adjusted for an expansion of the depression (let's not split hairs here) labor force, that started in December 2007: it is shaping up to be 7 years before the jobs lost finally are put back into the system. And that's for those optimistically inclined.
So before everyone gets all political on who has done a more bang up job of destroying the economy, perhaps both sides can explain how they each got the US to a point where even wildly optimstic projections assume that the length of the most recent economic slowdown will take 85 months to resolve (and, in all reality, far, far longer).
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Maybe one place to start would be to stop growing the labor pool by 100K a month.
TYLER what about 43? it is worth charting
Want the jobs back ? start a war with china !!!!!!! zero unempolyment in usa !!!!!! that was easy !!!!!!!! would be fun to watch ua air force bombing american factories in china on cnn !!!!
If you start a war with China, and they dump 2.5T in treasuries, can you afford to take out more loans when you're paying Greek yields, bitch?
If starting a war would improve things, why haven't the TWO theaters that are hot now helped?
Idiots like you deserve to lose your country.
you think usa is going to pay back all its debt ? lol lol !!!!!!!!!!!
So you're advocating 60th trimester abortions?
That'd be one hell of a D&C.
HaHa, No, just stop importing additional labor that we do not need.
Can we export ignorance, somehow?
Shrinking a population also shrinks the supply of jobs. Unless you're doing God's work, people work for people. People trade with people.
Hey, I have an idea. All of the unemployed and all the immigrants can get together and form new communities with shops and factories and farms and show the world why each person can be thought of as a part of the engine and not just a siphon. That would mean getting off the sofa and maybe putting the immigrants with the know how in leadership positions.
The only thing that shrinks the supply of jobs is technology, mainly computers. Obviously removing foreign aliens would not affect the supply of jobs, there appears to be a surplus of labor.
Next, you'll want to stop importing technology.
I would never say we have a surplus of labor. That would be like passing by a crowd who didn't know how to put Humpty Dumpty back together and saying, they had too many people standing around doing nothing.
If there is a surplus of corn, that means we are unable to sell it all.
If there is a surplus of labor, that means we have lots of unemployed people.
I think we have a surplus of labor.
Prices are fixed above the market price. This is what happens when government controls labor and industry.
Bingo.
"Stop fucking with prices!" - ? Mises
Yeah, minimum wage was never a good idea.
100% of 0 does not = minimum wage.
Neither was slavery.
Choose one.
Why not a maximum wage, instead?
Imagine a country where everyone wanted to be a car salesman. If most of the population only ever learned how to sell cars, what would we say about labor if sales started to fall and unemployment rose? Would we say that we had a surplus of labor? You would. I would tend to think that the problem was deeper and had more do with the type of skills available and not so much the amount. Worse, what if the cars needed maintenance while the mechanics were all overseas?
This is insano talk. We don't do factories and real productivity stuff any more. Folks on indefinite unemployment/food stamps need to make $25 an hour just to break even.
hmmmmm, maybe if credit checks, background checks, job history, references, and drug tests ceased to exist would you have near full employment. But, I bet your little pea-sized brain never took those factors into consideration?!
Go ahead, cut the benefits, I dare you. Watch what happens when your daughter gets lifted by some loser then. It is by design that this country doesn't want full employment. You, are just going to have to deal with the sofa-sitters.
there are a lot of people just idly leaning on their brand new shovels...
the one and only fix is no government or fed meddling...thats it...let free market forces take hold and things will be fixed. sure we will have pain for a while...allow those that are responsbile with capital allocation to win and those who were irresponsible lose. true capitalism. thats it...i am not saying tptb or the sheeple would go along with it...but its the only fix...that and asset backed currencies.
Somewhere over the rainbow Way up high, There's a land that I heard of Once in a lullaby.
Somewhere over the rainbow Skies are blue, And the dreams that you dare to dream Really do come true.
Someday I'll wish upon a star And wake up where the clouds are far Behind me. Where troubles melt like lemon drops Away above the chimney tops That's where you'll find me.
Somewhere over the rainbow Bluebirds fly. Birds fly over the rainbow. Why then, oh why can't I?
If happy little bluebirds fly Beyond the rainbow Why, oh why can't I?
Just wait for the revisions on the job numbers, as the hole is even deeper than they are saying. (No surprise there.) Now, add in a nasty hurricane, or a big refinery accident, or just plain stupidity on the part of some of the big noise boyz... I am not happy about this!
I'm not so sure it's a "hole" because to me it looks like the continent sank a bit. Holes, dips, depressions, etc. all just seem to assume that the US will naturally float at some level above sea level, so this must just be temporary, as we will naturally be on top once again. I'm not so sure the US is immortal or the favorite of the gods.
are we talking real jobs or birth/death model jobs? birth/death can create 5 million jobs in 3 months if the administration gets really aggressive in their modeling assumptions.
neither.
have to "improve" the birth-death model to get those numbers...
in which direction?
in the direction its a goin and pull the numbers out at the end of the year. No one will even notice...
Perhaps the current administration thinks they can fix unemployment by creating federal jobs?
it worked in zimbabwe, for a while. thats it , a federal government bubble. everyone could work for the government. we would pretend to work and they would...
Analysts have been discussing this exact trajectory for about a year now. The mainstream economists are not only dumb, but in some cases little more than craven pleasers. It's been clear since last Summer that getting back to normal was nigh impossible, once you pour population growth on top of the black hole in jobs we've fallen into.
GGG
+1
Being charitable: Economists are morons operating under a failed world view.
Not being charitable: Economists are dishonest central planners that should be executed in the town square for the purposes of amusement. (Their constant goat sacrifices creates suffering throughout society, and all would do better getting rid of them.)
Economists cannot do the math. Yes, they really are that stupid, and no, math is NOT a part of their academic curriculum (which is merely religious indoctrination).
These charts are so simple, as is the math, as is the "confidence" even the layman can concluded regarding possible future "growth". When you add the fact that the geometric debt service is expected to come from central planner assumptions regarding these future "jobs", it's quite simple to understand you can't get there from here.
The US won't make it to 2016. Sovereign default, constitutional crisis, and re-organization of the US Federal Government (e.g., Argentina).
Relating to previous threads, yes, a few central planners know what they are doing (enriching their own power and control by crashing the world into a brick wall, with anticipation of their Kingship over the next system), but the majority are simply morons (think CNBC bobblehead).
what's with the focus on population growth?
It's a ponzi.
It's a classic response in a declining economy.
Thesapein, what's with your focus on promoting population growth?
only way to pay off this debt. promote living.
Skeptics always seem like we're taking an opposing side. I'm not sure what I believe on this topic; however, I'm quite certain of the incorrectness in what others are saying. They seem to know not what they mean and, more importantly, why they're saying it.
They seem to know not what they mean and, more importantly, why they're saying it.
Fear of "the other" I assume, which I counter with the old saw, "people are the same all over." There is a legitimate concern about immigration insofar as we live in an out-of-control welfare state and it seems that the folks in the middle have to carry the weight of everybody else.
But apart from that, I'd say:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0p4drWtJ0Ug
Please, just try explaining that one to me in full detail and see if it still sounds like a legitimate concern afterward. Better yet, imagine explaining it to a family that just immigrated here. I'm seriously asking if anyone wants to jump in here.
just try explaining that one to me in full detail
Too much effort. Maybe we can find a day laborer standing outside a Home Depot who will be willing to write that one up for you on the cheap.
Yeah, go back to your couch and, wait, don't forget your remote.
more people = more consumers, and lower wages, so its good from those points of view. Also having a fragmented labor market with ethnic division makes divide and conquor much easier. Also immigrants dont know their rights, so they are easier to take advantage of.
Of course, you have to ask yourself, if population is inherently 'good' then why are the countries they are leaving such shit holes?
You pull me in to agree, only to fabricate a question that was never implied by words. So, no, I don't have to ask that question because, well, it has at least one false premise.
ricky ricky roo - your cool.
Also immigrants dont know their rights, so they are easier to take advantage of.
not just immigrants. i think whole of america doesn't know their rights. i am just now exploring mine. especially not aware in my previous life.
WOWz WOWz.
i would rather that obama produce an american birth certificate rather than 230,000 fake jobs which any birth/death monkey could produce....
www.obamacrimes.com
The republican governor of hawaii said she sent the states chief medical fuck to personally verify the birth certificate and THE REPUBLICAN GOVERNOR said the president was born in ooh ss aay. Racists, I love em, If you got nothing nice to say about anyone come sit by me. Dont you have any legitimate concerns to attack this negro with other than building 7 BS....unless you are actually a demoncrat attempting to make your opposition look insane? Oh your good real good.
I am soooo confident when a hight ranking government official say 'everything is fine trust me now move along', are u fuking kidding me there is not Republican and Democrat party all those who matter are under the same flag. I am sure Dick Cheyney himself would confirm obummers certificate if it was up to him, they all work for the same interest groups
Here are multiple pictures of both the birth certificate, and the announcement from the time of his birth.
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/born_in_the_usa.html
geeze whats with the junking?
I generally disagree with Johhny, but what more can anyone do to prove BarryO is legit? Does someone need to take the original birth cert house to house and let everyone touch it? And of course, like any good conspiracy theory, there is no way to prove that the document presented wasnt generated yesterday, its got to be possible for the govt to fake a birth certificate and slip it into the public records if they wanted to.
But in the end, what difference does it really make? I understand that its a legal argument against Barry's legitimacy as prez, but it seems like people who use this argument are missing the point. Even if you are right and he is not a natural born citizen, do you think its ever going to come out? I doubt it, and all the energy you spend on that red-herring, arguing a conspiratorial technicality, is energy you cant spend arguing against his policy, or organising a political movement.
So give up on the birth cert, its a red herring, play the ball not the man.
Your only hope is changing the President ;)
If Obama wasn't really legit, don't you think that the Republicans and McCain would have beaten that dead horse until it was a pile of goo?
The fact that only a few whackos make the argument alone proves that that particular argument is false.
Like Obama or not, it's been proven time after time that he was born in the United States.
15 second of Googling would take care of such weak arguments.
Yet, it seems that most people involved in politics care little about the truth.
Make your arguments on whether he sucks or not as president, not by some crappy conspiracy theory that can be disproven in five minutes.
That link contains a picture of a Certification Of Live Birth which is not a Birth Certificate! So when are you going to post a link containing a picture of BO's Birth Certificate?
Certification Of Live Birth is not a Birth Certificate?
What IS it then?
A document that certifies his live birth?
What is a Birth Certificate?
A document that certifies his live birth?
You stupid birthers come up with the worst arguments I've ever seen. What the hell is wrong with you people? Did you drink a bunch of kool aid with LSD inside of it?
How can you even make the argument you made, and think that you have any sort of argument at all?
I've known second graders that have more logic!
People that have the audacity to make an argument like "That link contains a picture of a Certification Of Live Birth which is not a Birth Certificate! So when are you going to post a link containing a picture of BO's Birth Certificate?" should be lined up against the wall and shot, to prevent them from breeding.
I can't even believe that somebody thinks that the above argument is even a legitimate argument.
This is why we can't change our country! We have the fucking retarded cancelling out the votes of normal people.
If you don't like Obama, that's fine. You are entitled to that opinion.
If you think that "a certificate of live birth is not a birth certificate" is a legitimate argument, please throw yourself from the nearest overpass to prevent the dissemination of your genes into the American society.
You should have fell victim to Darwinism years ago!
Please, kill yourself.
hey johny you got your birth certificate? go take a look at it! I bet it has your doctors name on it! that certificate of live birth is BS....I want to see barrys footprint!
Tony, Obama can't produce a document from the time of his birth. There is a newspaper announcement which does back him up. The thing is, those of us who would like to deport him to Kenya can't prove he was not born here. So, that is a dead end. We are halfway thru the nightmare. He has lost his mojo. The republic will survive.
Unfortunately, we've passed the tipping point. The Cloward-Piven strategy, nurtured by the economic crisis has succeeded in ensuring that entitlements and unionization will implode both national and state economies. The aim is a Marxist utopia. What the radical Progressives have failed to consider is from where the future money to support a dictatorial big government will miraculously appear.
Dictatorships don't need money; they have slaves.
Problem is that slaves arent very productive, and tend to piss in the soup
Here are multiple pictures of both the birth certificate, and the announcement from the time of his birth.
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/born_in_the_usa.html
Yo Johnny...that is not a Birth Certificate. Do your homework or shut your pie hole.
Yes it is. If it isn't, then what is it?
"Derrrnnh... duhhhh... errnnnhhh.... TEE PARTY 4 LYFE DAWG!"
God you birthers are fucking retarded.
It is a Certification Of Live Birth which is NOT a Birth Certificate! Just Google the two terms to find out the difference, OK? Moron!
Since you know what the difference is, why don't you tell me?
Certification of birth is not a birth certificate?
It sounds exactly the same to me. Both certify a live birth.
I guess the order of the words is reversed slightly.
You're embarrassing to any true conservative anywhere! You and your birther movement are a disgrace to America, and a joke at that!
And the winner of the stupidest motherfucker I've ever met in my life award goes to:
Jerome Lester H....
Arguments like "Certification Of Live Birth which is NOT a Birth Certificate" have earned you a place as the stupidest person in American history!
Please, kill yourself to prevent your genes from entering society. Or at least shoot yourself really hard in the balls with a hotgun.
Yo Johnny...that is not a Birth Certificate. Do your homework or shut your pie hole.
SwapThis: *hits chest, attempts to bite ear.*
Like I said, if it's NOT a birth certificate, what is it then?
Don't you think that if your argument had ANY sort of legitimacy that there'd be the entire GOP pouncing on the opportunity to use it?
I was listening to some radio show yesterday and they had a private investigator lady on. She was talking about how she, and another independent investigator, found Obama's SS number is a phony. Something about the first three numbers being designated for a Conn. resident, and he never lived/worked there.
I had never heard of this one before, and found it interesting. Jerome Corsi wrote some stories on it if interested in searching.
Yeah. I can guess which one of several that could be. I'll consider that a rumor until you produce some convincing links. I'm not going to do your work and go look for "proof" of anything.
Unless you believe in an as yet unidentified HUGE conspiracy you can rest assured that any credible evidence of his birth being illegitimate would have come out during the campaigns.
That reply was not addressed to you. I couldn't possibly care less what you, or anyone else, believes. The poster I was responding to may find it worth his or her time to research. Just spreading information. Although, I can see how going to Google and searching "Obama's social security number", doing some research, and drawing your own informed conclusions would be a lot less fun than spouting off at the mouth like some brain-dead HuffPo-inspired fanboi.
That reply was not addressed to you.
If this upsets you please consider not posting personal replies in a public venue.
Like I said, that's your job.
There, fixed that one for ya.
As for drawing my own conclusions I have not because I don't care about something that has been hashed, rehashed, and regurgitated. Better minds than mine, and a whole lot better than yours, have looked into it. I don't use the crutch of "citizenship qualification" to mask the horror by some that there is a black man in the White House. It's a sublimation of racism. Obama is doing a lot of stuff that I don't like but I'll not hide behind some canard to find fault. I voted for Ron Paul.
Rocky,
You do understand this is only done to raz the socialists don't you?
In terms of law, I guess it matters as far as whose law we're talking about. I believe by Kenyan law (at the time of his birth) any son born to a Kenyan father is a Kenyan. Dual citizenship/allegiance question. Then there is the application form completed and signed in Indonesia stating his religion.
Of course, any well respected person would never dream of razzing socialists about Barry's relationship with Khalid Abdullah Tariq al-Mansour (a racist of the first order) either.
http://www.discoverthenetworks.org/Articles/katalm.html
Or would they? ;-)
Just the same, I really don't concern myself with it since it's a distraction.
We have much bigger concerns than wondering how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. Focus, focus, focus.
Thanks for your reply.
Agreed.
But I do enjoy swinging a 2X4 around once in awhile just to keep everyone honest ;-)
One thing that has happened is both left & right are coming closer to a consensus of what the real problem is.
Namely, interference with peoples daily affairs on just about every level.
It's all good. It's woke everyone up.
One quibble with Tyler's piece, the title, while understanding the political context that he used it in "Obama Must Create 230,000 Jobs"...points to what you are saying above about one person making a difference.
One person can't. The entire government can't. But we can.
I have never lost my faith in our people to do the right thing when presented with all the facts.
SeeYa Rocky.
You haven't lost faith in our people? Bahahahaha! Bahahahaha!!! Go walk through Detroit at 2am and tell the first group of people you see how you love your countrymen! See what their neighborly reaction will be! Think everyone will make a "smart" or "wise" decision? Bahahahahaha!
Or, just invest with GS! Bahahahahaha!!!!
I'm sorry.
Exactly what part of...
"I have never lost my faith in our people to do the right thing when presented with all the facts."
...were you having a problem with again?
Are you taking the position that ignorance is incurable?
Here are multiple pictures of both the birth certificate, and the announcement from the time of his birth.
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/born_in_the_usa.html
Take what you want from it and then move along. No one cares....
I lost my original birth certificate. All I have is a state certified copy of the original.
Does that mean that I'm from Kenya? No. I was born on a U.S. military base in Colorado, with a birth announcement in the paper (like Obama) to prove it, and pictures of me in a "Property of U.S. military" baby outfit.
Now we are getting into something interesting. You are, in fact, owned by the US Government. And there is a picture to prove it. Hmmmm.... ;-)
I think that they just mean the outfit.
It says "Property of Fort Carson Army Hospital."
Oooh, Johnny. Serious lapse of going with the flow there.
That was humor on Missy's part.
Get a grip.
He gets pounded so much here he can't tell a sweet tease from an attack.
Rocks is right. I was riffing on how you have been accused of being a govt. shill and how you think we find conspiracy everywhere. Lots of bait for you to play with, if you had felt like it.
Oh, I knew that there was no harm intended in the post, and that you were joking.
That's why I wasn't like *flips bird!*
Or something like that... :)
You should be banned for wasting our time.
GGG
From the Daily Bell:
Look at me, I'm posting just like that 'tard, Colonel Cooper, by posting the same thing again and again!
Here are multiple pictures of both the birth certificate, and the announcement from the time of his birth.
http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/born_in_the_usa.html
Now you understand why the Colonel is one of your avid fans!
Don't understand the junks but thanx for the link. I had never seen those before and if they are legitimate, I stand chagrined.
I get junked for taking a shit in the morning on this site.
There are many people who feel that junking is an appropriate was to make arguments when they have no other way to make arguments, or lack any legitimate arguments to use.
Johnny,
How many times have we told you NOT to shit on the site in the morning? Damn son. Get a diaper or a depends or something.
LOL. I've come to like you over time, MsCreant.
You are loved, it's easy.
it's way past mattering who's in charge.
Hah! That would be something. Whatever happened to the momentum to have O'scumma's certificate of US birth produced for the public pleasure?
Even if this fantasy you've concocted were true, honestly, who gives a crap?
http://dailytradealert.com/2010/08/23/this-is-why-there-are-no-jobs-in-a...
Read this and you'll know why this recession will never end
Good link !!
And THAT, our new partner, is why I no longer have a small business here.
We have one in Peru that is doing nicely, thank you.
Holy shit, that was good.
Without any sort of intro from you post, it really sucked me in by surprise.
Azannoth, thanks. - Ned
All enterprises paying 50% of their net. That's a fantasy!
Small biz don't have the resources for tax planning.
decon, this is why Warren Buffet doesn't want to get rid of the death taxes. He snaps up small family owned businesses (Jordan's furniture locally to Boston, for example) because the cap gains taxes to the owning family are cheaper than the inter-generational transfer on debt.
Look at all of the caterwauling following George Steinbrenner's final act of brilliance this year.
- Ned
The face of Vito.
That's easy to tear to shreds even for a dumbass like me.
I can't wait.
Poor faust,
Looks like this one kept you waiting a while. Let's go home, okay? I have some nice fruit you should like, coffee, cause let's face it, this one ain't coming back to say squat.
Got any grub for a hungry coon? I'm famished.
Come to think of it, grubs are good.
I have a small garden and a big tree out back with Raccoon poop on it and everything. Big ole' guy loves my compost pile. I'm sure there is grub for you. :-) Nothing like good neighbors.
bait your trap for a coon, with tomatoes.
Well perhaps we could shave down the digital ink on this subject by just considering that empirically unemployment is worse now than the worse levels of GD1 if the same measurement metric were used.
Seriously you can look it up!
Oh and more folks have been disappeared our of the labor force since 2000 than the total increase in the civilian labor force! (Actually those numbers are from the start of this secular bear, year 2000, through the February 2010 BLS report). Nice trick eh? At no time do their hands leave their arms.
Here are the numbers ...
In the year 2000:
Civilian noninstitutional population : 212,577,000
Civilian labor force : 142,583,000
Civilian labor force particpation rate : 67.1%
Number of employed : 136,891,000
Percent of Population : 64.4%
Number of unemployed : 5,692,000
Percent of Labor Force : 4.0%
Not in the labor force : 69,994,000
Let's compare that to February 2010:
Civilian noninstitutional population : 235,998,000
Civilian labor force : 153,512,000
Civilian labor force particpation rate : 64.8%
Number of employed : 138,641,000
Percent of Population : 58.5%
Number of unemployed : 14,871,000
Percent of Labor Force : 9.7%
Not in the labor force : 83,487,000
Perhaps the problem boys and girls is revealed by the headline 'Obama Must Create'...
F$%@$%# Nancy Capitalists, America needs to gets its mojo back, one citizen at a time....
Ask not what your country can do for you. Get off your ass and do it for yourself. You can accomplish anything if you set your mind to it.
Thank you. This is Fat Albert logic 101. Start at the begining and go untill you reach the end.
thanks for the convincing enumeration of labor stats, AM but save the pep talk for the Optimist Club. there is no coming back from the massive decades long and literal exportation of the US industrial base to Chinese sweat shops. That wooden shim you're buying at Home Depot for $.89 came from Northwest lumber and dismantled mill equipment infrastructure shipped to China and processed, shipped back to the US, for a fraction of the price it could be produced here. A consumer and service sector economy is at best only a repository for fully capitalized industrial production capacity. Add to that the bloated monstrosity of a subsidised military which accounts for half of GDP growth, government jobs that pay twice those in the private sector, obscenely entitled and grossly underfunded pension funds and a financial services industry which accounts for an incongruous and unproductive proportionate share of national wealth and you have not only the makings of a catastrophic depression and economic collapse but an overarching national security concern.
We are the optimist club. Remember Shermans " on no earthly account will I do " i forget the rest. Wow check out the super fox @ the open woznipolack thank gud for short skirts and windy days. What was I talking about?
Agree re headline of post. Obama should create negative jobs by slimming Federal government down and STOP "creating" jobs.
Re GD1 comparison, times and types of measurements are so different now, and govt is so much bigger and more intrusive, how can one really compare then to now and why bother?
After all, in the 30s, old-timers remembered the depression of 1873 and how truly bad times were then . . .
Optimist club here. Liked the pep talk.
Also agree with Yardfarmer that the proverbial "Happy Days" will never be here again but would suggest that that is a good thing.
I have set my mind to non-judgemental, personal responsibility for the lives of me and mine and am working hard at it. But sometimes I look around and really feel the fool.
Reality will eventually show its cards:
As in the laws of physics, think of the theory of connected vessels.
"water will eventually rise to its true level." The time required is determined by the permiability factor of the matter in between the vessels. In this case the brain of the average Joe sixpack.
Once it eventually permiates through, you get blood in the streets, banksters and politicians scrambling for non-extradition countries
yep - i call this a depression - and have done so since its inception - which, btw, was much earlier than 12/2007....actually the depression started c. 2000....real gdp has been negative in all but one or two quarters between 2004-2007....and it continues to be negative because the fraudulent crap from the bls understates inflations....on purpose of course....incompetence does not explain the failure to report the truth....
So you really think we're going to have a nice boom afterwards? It's only a depression if things rise back up on the other side. But I like your optimism.
One junk on each of my posts... must had said something right today... kudos!
the douche that junked all of your previous comments was going to show you by not junking your last post....
I kept you at 100%. Does a charity junk count?
Cheers!
Stop importing a net 160,000 legal immigrant visa workers every month...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8noWILceJY&feature=player_embedded
http://www.cis.org/articles/2009/back509_t10.jpg
http://cis.org/FirstQuarter2009Unemployment
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Even though every libertarian bone in my body recoils at the thought, the USA must also implement E-Verify on a national level, made compulsory through IRS, OSHA, and other Federal regulators, regressive penalization upon employers, and massive increases in funding and manpower at the ICE. AND MANDATORY LOCAL STATE AND COUNTY LEO ENROLLMENT IN THE 287(g) PROGRAM.... remove all Federal funding of any municipality that refuses to actively uphold the laws through the Commerce Clause abuse that has become the norm.
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=4ee4be0cbcf90110VgnVCM1000000ecd190aRCRD&vgnextchannel=2411c9ee2f82b010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1RCRD
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American citizens and legal residents are not going to suffer for 100+ months of economic repression while fighting with a continued massive wave of inward migration as the wage scales for labor in this country continue to plummet while the tax and CPI inflation index skyrockets for basic necessities.
EDIT: typos
True.
False.
The US had its best years of growth during massive immigration, yo.
You should be worried about the massive amounts of our highest skilled workers going abroad or returning to their homelands.
I am worried about massive amounts of our highest skilled workers going abroad or returning to their homelands.... my ex-g/f is an immigrant and PhD candidate at a US Ivy League school and just took a job in Germany.... her entire cohort of PhD candidates in her department are working abroad...
But there is a huge difference between expelling existing legal working (h1 visa etc) immigrants and halting future immigration to adjust for wage/labor markets.
Every nation in the history of the world has the sovereign right to maintain migration laws for social utilitarian reasons. The reasons to invoke a halt in immigration in the United States is now at the most glaringly obvious and immediately important moment since the founding of the Republic.
There are 11 million plus surplus workers in the United States... and unlike prior post-WWII recessions... there is ample supply of labor at every educational and skill level in the US economy....
These people need to work or the gross and net benefit utility to the country will be collected by the private employers while the gross and net losses to society are burdened upon the remaining taxpayer base...
If the labor pool goes any further into this tragedy of the commons, we're looking at the collapse of social cohesion not seen since the Bonus Army camped out in Washington DC.
More people doesn't mean less jobs.
People supply jobs just like they take jobs. Think of every transaction as a trade and this will be more clear.
About your nation rights, well, I live in a nation, too. And I'm ashamed of my nation for labeling certain people as "illegal" based solely on what side of the border they were born. As if human rights ought to be different for your children and not someone else's.
Go back to Huffpo fool, try saying that shit in Argentina, Israel, or some place else. It doesn't fly. Poor people can't create jobs, you need CAPITAL. When you find yourself living in an overpopulated, third world country where a third of the workforce lacks a high school education don't be surprised when you attempt to leave and no one will let you in their countries, it's not yours. In the overwhelming majority of nations, even being born on their side of the border doesn't confer any citizenship rights, jus soli needs to go to. It's nothing more than an archais relic from the days before transcontinental air lines.
You could be a rep for a world bank by the sound of that post. The little people need big bank financing to become productive? They don't support us; we support them? Little people are like anti-capital, is that it?
Don't worry. I'm not surprised by any of this. But knowing how the world works is separate from how we want to progress it.
Capital is wealth, as I said before, your hopium fueled posts don't belong on a blog dedicated to financial matters.
Then bring it. Let's argue about what makes a real economy function.
I'll start.
All else remaining unchanged, what is to be correlated with a growing population? Your answer, a negative relation with productivity. Really?
You can increase aggregate production, it doesn't necessarily translate into an increase per capita. Of course population cannot increase indefinitely, it's a matter of physical limits why 1 billion people cannot live in the U.S. and have the same standards of living through the present level of consumption.
Here, I do agree with you. I'm open to the idea that there's a tipping point, so to speak, of when increases and decreases in populations cause the economy to go the other way. I do believe such ideas have weight. I'm just not sure which way and when these reverses occur.
You say 1 billion is too many for the US, but why that number? How do you arrive at 1 billion? I've done a few roadtrips across the states, and what I remember most is lots and lots of open land and resources.
What do you define as resources? Sure there is open land but not a surplus of arable land, water, energy, or minerals. The US is already a net importer of most basic commodities other than maybe grain and coal. So, just because we have a place to put these folks doesn't necessarily mean we can provide for them.
It is my understanding that we import not what we lack but what we slack on obtaining. It's easier to just pay someone else to do the hard part, though sometimes the reasons are even worse when you see an abandoned mine with all the equipment left behind and piles of raw material just left there, forgotten about.
But I'm not getting a sense of your 1 billion number really being based on anything.
Also, you don't put people somewhere and provide for them so your last sentence just reads kind of weird.
You're not even answering the questions, you're like some Huffpo troll who came here. Oil, Lithium, Natural Gas, Phosphate, Helium. These are all determined constrained by physical limits. You think the U.S. could consume 55 million barrels a day? It's physically impossible. The sheer amount of resources consumed by someone here is staggering.
Why do I seem like a "Huffpo troll" and why do you want me to re-define what we mean by resources? Now, where are you getting the idea that I think the US could consume 55 million barrels (oil?) a day? Is 55 supposed to mean something?
About your property rights, well, I live in a property, too. And I'm ashamed of myself for labeling certain people as "illegal" based solely on what side of the front door they were born. As if human rights ought to be different for your children and not someone else's
There. I fixed it for you.
Human Rights. Pray tell, what are they? Where do they come from? Where are they defined and codified? And why do someone else's Human Rights negate my Constitutional rights?
After World War II, Rosie the riveter was told to get her ass back in the kitchen where it belonged, because the boys coming back from war needed those jobs. The girls went back without too much fuss, probably because growing up they had never envisioned a future for themselves that included a career outside the home. I don't think the women are going to meekly put on an apron this time around, but I think when it all shakes out we are likely to have families where only one spouse is employed outside the home. That is not necessarily a bad thing.
Would you rather sweat over a mile long row of rivets or make a pan of brownies?
Seems like a no-brainer to me.
Stop importing skilled labor? Are you insane? Shoot, while we're paying our unskilled workers to stay at home, someone has to be out there doing real work.
Hey, did you know that new worker is also a new consumer, except that immigrants to be smart and save some of their money, which, oh wait, helps investing. Imagine that.
You're forgetting global trade, you don't need to import people to make money off them. Ever heard of emerging market mutual funds, bonds, etc? It's not even skilled labor that is imported, it's unskilled chain migration.
It's not false. Looking at it from down here on the border, I can see how a bunch of unemployed, maniac rednecks could get good and drunk and take up a new kind of hunting...
Supporting the financial system will accomplish nothing.
Obama needs to get America's engineers (and not H1-B's and L-1's) back to work, subsidizing them if necessary, so they can start laying the groundwork of a real recovery, identifying investments (real investments, not financial investments), and ultimately, start going through the motions of presenting business cases to investors to raise capital.
Once the engineers have done this preliminary work, they can start hiring people to execute it.
The only way this recovery will possibly work is if it is engineer-led. Engineers are the only group with any credibility left. Accountants, lawyers, and bankers got us into this mess, and are not trustworthy. A top-down approach won't work this time around.