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Obama Says "Recovery Summer" But The Fed Says Recovery Will Take 5 or 6 Years

Econophile's picture




 

From The Daily Capitalist

President Obama is off pitching his stimulus plan today in Michigan:

The trip, part of a campaign dubbed "Recovery Summer" by the White House, is intended to reassure Americans the U.S. economy is returning to a sound footing in advance of the fall elections. ...

 

On Wednesday, the White House released new data saying a surge in Recovery Act funding had raised economic growth in the second quarter of 2010 by as much as 3.2% and boosted employment by as many as 3.6 million jobs, compared to estimated levels in the absence of the stimulus. 

I wonder if President Obama reads the same data as I do? Aside from the fact that the numbers the White House presented are false, the data are revealing the beginning of an economic slowdown which are clearly contra to the Administration's claims that the economy is growing. The Fed is clearly worried as shown below in the minutes of its June meeting. In fact they expect years of slow growth. I wonder if Mrs. Romer talked to Chairman Bernanke before she boasted about her fake numbers?

Here is an overview of data that came in just this week that reveals a slowing economy:

Industrial Production

After almost a year of strong gains, industrial production slowed in June. And it would have been negative without a surge in utilities output-likely weather related. Overall industrial production in June edged up 0.1 percent, following a 1.3 percent gain the prior month. The June increase was above the market forecast for a 0.2 percent drop. ...

 

Overall, the industrial sector slowed in June, indicating that the recovery has lost a little momentum. The question is whether June's easing is temporary.

 

However, manufacturing fell 0.4 percent in June, following a 1.0 percent jump in May. For other sectors in June, utilities output was up 2.7 percent while mining gained 0.4 percent.

 

By industry, motor vehicles and parts weighed on overall production, dropping 1.9 percent. Manufacturing excluding motor vehicles declined 0.3 percent, following a 0.8 percent boost in May. Market group data suggest at least a temporary shift in production. While production of consumer goods fell 0.6 percent in June, output for business equipment gained 0.9 percent. Apparently, businesses are boosting investment in equipment as consumer spending is wavering.

 

Business Inventories

Just when inventories are beginning to gain steam, sales go down the tubes. Business inventories rose 0.1 percent in May, not much but a lot for business managers who are being hit by a 0.9 percent decline in sales. ... Data previously released show a 0.4 percent draw in manufacturing inventories, also well short of the 1.3 percent fall in manufacturing sales. Wholesalers will also feel the need to correct their inventories, which rose 0.5 percent in May at the same time that sales fell 0.3 percent.

Retail Sales

Retail sales declined in June while more goods piled up on business shelves in May, underscoring a dilemma facing the U.S. economy. Up to now, the recovery was fueled in large part by businesses rebuilding inventories depleted during the recession. But that process can't continue if consumers cut back on spending, as now appears to be happening.

 

Retail inventories rose 0.3 percent and show gains across nearly all components. In alarming contrast, retail sales for May fell more than 1 percent and today's earlier report for June shows a 0.5 percent fall. Retailers have been warning their shareholders that a round of heavy discounting is in the cards given the necessity to move out inventory. Overall retail sales on a year-ago basis in June slowed to 4.8 percent from 6.9 percent the month before.

 

The June decline was led by a 2.3 percent fall in motor vehicle sales. A decline in gasoline prices also pulled down gasoline station sales which eased 2.0 percent. Also showing decreases were furniture & home furnishings, building materials & garden equipment, food & beverage stores, and sporting goods & hobby stores.

 

But it was not all negative. There were a number of clear winners. Consumers are still plopping money down for HD TVs, and new cell phones, and other electronic goodies as electronics & appliance store sales jumped 1.3 percent. Miscellaneous store retails saw a 1.1 percent boost while nonstore retailers gained 1.0 percent. Also seeing increases were health & personal care, clothing, food services & drinking places, and general merchandise. Within general merchandise, department store sales jumped 1.1 percent

New York/Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Reports

The New York manufacturing region reports an abrupt slowdown in growth. The Empire State general business conditions index fell nearly 15 points to 5.08. Growth in new orders slowed to 10.13 from 17.53 suggesting the upward slope of the nation's factory recovery may already be tapering off significantly. Growth in shipments eased to 6.31 from June's 19.67 while employment eased to 7.94 from 12.35. Of concern, inventories backed up, to 6.35 from minus 1.23 in a build, given the easing in new orders, that will be of concern to the region's manufacturers.

 

Negative readings, that is readings which show month-to-month contraction, are headed by unfilled orders which fell nearly 15 points to minus 15.87. Importantly, the decline in unfilled orders will not help employment. The workweek contracted to minus 9.52 from June's 8.64. Delivery times round out the negative readings at minus 7.94, down 18 points to indicate an abrupt easing in shipping delays.

 

* * * * *

 

The Philadelphia Fed's general business conditions index came in at 5.1 in July indicating a slower rate of growth than June's 8.0 reading. In an unpleasant warning, new orders fell to minus 4.3 to mark an end to a full year of growth. If new orders extend their contraction in next month's report, the health of the region's manufacturing sector will be in question. If the ISM report for July also shows contraction for new orders, the health of the nation's manufacturing sector will suddenly become a big issue.

 

Unfilled orders, at minus 8.6, show significant contraction as they did in this morning's Empire State report. Delivery times, like the Empire State report, improved sharply in what is a negative sign for business activity. Shipments slowed to plus 4.0 from 14.2 though employment did show a modest gain at 4.0 vs. June's minus 1.5.

 

This morning's industrial production report showed a decline in its manufacturing component and this report won't raise expectations for improvement in the next industrial production report. The manufacturing sector, which is leading the economic recovery, has lost steam far short of full recovery from its 2007 peak.

 

Jobless Claims

The number of people filing for unemployment insurance fell last week, but weak industrial output and a drop in wholesale prices point to a slowing in the economic recovery. ... Initial claims for jobless benefits fell a seasonally adjusted 29,000 to 429,000 in the week ended July 10, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week moving average, which smooths out weekly gyrations, fell 11,750 to 455,250.

 

Manufacturing retooling centered in the auto sector, for this year delayed retooling, makes the report very difficult to read. The four-week average is the best handle and it's down 11,750 to 455,250 for the lowest reading since mid May. ...

 

Whatever improvement there is on the initial side is offset by a big 247,000 jump in continuing claims to 4.681 million in data for the July 3 week. The four-week average for this reading is up 22,000 to 4.581 million for the highest reading since mid June. The unemployment rate for insured workers rose two tenths to 3.7 percent.

 

Unemployment

The jobs picture in June was quite mixed as temporary Census workers were laid off and private hiring was positive but moderate. Also, the unemployment rate continued to dip even as the workweek slipped. Overall payroll jobs in June fell back 125,000 after spiking a revised 433,000 in May and after a 313,000 jump in April. The June decrease matched the market forecast for a 125,000 decline.

 

Looking beyond the temporary effects of Census hiring and firing, private nonfarm employment increased 83,000, following a 33,000 rise in May. The latest figure fell short of analysts' projection for a 105,000 advance in private payrolls.


There other signs of a slowing in the labor market. Growth in average hourly earnings eased to a 0.1 percent decline, following a 0.2 percent boost in May. The average workweek for all workers edged down to 34.1 hours compared to 34.2 hours in May. The market forecast was for 34.2 hours.

 

The good news at face value in the June report was that the unemployment rate to 9.5 percent in June from 9.7 percent in May. However, the decrease was due to a sharp drop in the labor force.

 

Overall, the June jobs reports points to a softening in the labor market. Private employment continues to grow, but at a more moderate pace. On the news, markets were uncertain of how to react as equity futures moved back and forth.

 

Federal Reserve June Minutes

Federal Reserve officials downgraded their expectations for the economy and said further central-bank action might be necessary if the economic outlook "were to worsen appreciably," according to minutes of their latest policy meeting. ... Quarterly projections released with the minutes showed that central bank officials expected growth to be slower this year than previously estimated and inflation through 2012 to remain even lower than forecast earlier. Their outlook for the job market also dipped, with expectations for the unemployment rate slightly worse through 2012. ... 

 

They expected the pace of the recovery to be held back by uncertainty among businesses and households, persistent weakness in real estate, only gradual improvement in the labor market, waning fiscal stimulus and slow easing of credit conditions.

[They must be reading The Daily Capitalist.]

But here is the shocker--not to my readers--in which they believe that the economy won't get back to normal ("converge") for 5 or 6 years:

Participants generally anticipated that, in light of the severity of the economic downturn, it would take some time for the economy to converge fully to its longer-run path as characterized by sustainable rates of output growth, unemployment, and inflation consistent with participants' interpretation of the Federal Reserve's dual objectives; most expected the convergence process to take no more than five to six years.

I've been noticing that a lot of economists are now jumping on the slow growth bandwagon. As usual they look at yesterday's data and guess what's going to happen tomorrow. As most economists are either Keynesian, Monetarists, or Ne0-Classicists, I don't believe they have yet to grasp the negative implications of the inefficacy of government stimulus and the Fed's attempt at quantitative easing.

I have been writing about the potential of a second half decline since last year and I believe the numbers are bearing me out and for the exact reasons I have been predicting. I don't claim omniscience, I may be just confirming my own biases, or perhaps it is just luck, as Nassim Taleb would say, but it certainly fits into the framework of Austrian theory.

All charts courtesy of the Wall Street Journal

Participants generally anticipated that, in light of the severity of the economic downturn, it would take some time for the economy to converge fully to its longer-run path as characterized by sustainable rates of output growth, unemployment, and inflation consistent with participants' interpretation of the Federal Reserve's dual objectives; most expected the convergence process to take no more than five to six years.
 

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Sat, 07/17/2010 - 15:15 | 475432 kevinearick
kevinearick's picture

 

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The Religious Marriage Kernel Function

Religious marriage is a squid tracking device, that sets the gap between the digital and analog economies, the present and the future. As an un-enumerated power, protected by enumerated individual rights to freedom of speech, assembly, and religion, and common law liberty and property rights to occupation, it has survived every empire and church in History, because it maintains the NPV window, hiding the electron from the squid’s irresistible urge to liquidate equity built up over generations for immediate consumption. It’s a tool, a pressure switch, that accurately measures squid activity.

They never see it coming. Each and every exploitation economy convinced itself that the planet was a stupid rock to be exploited, along with everyone that did not covet money. $100-250Million for the privilege of serving the public as Governor of California? That depends on how one defines service, and numbers in a computer.

Ask any mathematician, money is nothing more than a number. Only play poker when you can take your winnings off the table in real time, for immediate conversion into productive capacity. A digital computer cannot think. All it can do is algebraic reduction. Do not get reduced.

They cannot re-boot the economy without religious marriage. It’s a pass-by-reference parameter. You didn’t actually think we trusted the squid to be anything other than a squid?

Thu, 07/22/2010 - 22:25 | 484851 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

keep em comin amigo...keep em comin

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:58 | 473393 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Obama is nothing more than a suit who does what he is told. He cares less whether it works or not. It keeps his cronies happy and they continue to support him. No spine whatsoever.

"Some of those that work forces, are the same that burn crosses
Huh!
Killing in the name of!
Killing in the name of
And now you do what they told ya"

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:57 | 473386 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

C'mon, give the stupid sheeple some hope for change. They loved being deceived and lies too because it sounds good no matter what the REAL FACTs are. BHO did say he'd get the troops home, that no backdoor deals would happen in congress, fully transparent negs during bills...

End no-bid contracts above $25,000

Allow five days of public comment before signing bills

Allow bankruptcy judges to modify terms of a home mortgage

Reduce earmarks to 1994 levels

Create a public option health plan for a new National Health Insurance Exchange.

And too many more to list here of broken BHO promises. Buy her Sheeple, this is Recovery Summer. Can i get an Amen. AMEN!

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:42 | 473334 anony
anony's picture

Right now the plans are being laid if they haven't already been solidified for QE 2.0.

This will be announced just prior to the November elections, imagine that.

Quel surprise.

The ONLY play for this next 2-3 trillion dollar effect is how to play it. 

Nothing else should concern any investor.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:10 | 473250 Gimp
Gimp's picture

Totally clueless, hopey, changey thingy.

Do you think he has realised he has no real power yet?

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:18 | 473182 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

A consummate jackass

Obama will soon learn there is nothing more frustrating than a mechanic who insists there is nothing wrong with the car.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:51 | 473365 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

+1000

Not only a failed presidency, but living in his own bubble. 

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:11 | 473251 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

Uhhh....Nothing wrong with your I-Phone......

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:05 | 473162 Astute Investor
Astute Investor's picture

Never let the facts get in the way of your sales pitch.....

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:00 | 473151 DavidC
DavidC's picture

For people so well educated, they show a remarkable lack of awareness of the real world. They base their views on a 'return to normalcy' (i.e. normality) on the fact that we've had basically a 50 to 60 year bull market.

If we are now into a different, new secular period (credit contraction, downsizing etc) any assumptions based on their lifetimes are going to be WRONG.

I saw a piece on MarketTicker yesterday where Alistair Darling is STILL basing his views on a liquidity crisis rather than the DEBT and CREDIT crisis

http://market-ticker.org/archives/2507-JPM-Theyre-Still-Doing-It!.html

DavidC

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:19 | 473275 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

"For people so well educated, they show a remarkable lack of awareness of the real world." 

Having a sheepskin that says you are "well educated" does not equate with being honest or having good sense to use the said education.....

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:22 | 473187 centerline
centerline's picture

The timeframe over which perception is based is so long that people really don't have a sense of "normalcy."  Right on.  I try to explain this to people and almost always get the "deer in the headlights" look.  The games that being played are decades in the making at minimum - and the average person has an attension span of a doorknob.  Gonna be a rough ride as people wake up and realize that they are going to have to choose between an iphone and food.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:39 | 473320 anony
anony's picture

Likely 75% of the world population has a very strong attention span.

But their attention is usually focused on denial, lies they tell themselves, and others, and according to what I've gleaned from various surveys, their suspension of thinking, because it's too hard to do. The average person watches 4-6 hours of boob tube a day. Their attention is fixed on that for sure.

Complexity, nuance, and grey areas are not something most people seek out, just the opposite.

Give me a Kim Kardashian plot line every time and I can concentrate like a laser beam.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 08:55 | 473146 Popo
Popo's picture

In late 2005 the news media was still talking about the Bush recovery.

In 2006 and 2007 we were in the biggest bubble in history.

In 2008 we began talking about the recovery from the financial crisis.

So I guess we had a little more than 2 years of a market that was considered "recovered" -- even though it was in a bubble?

When exactly was the economy "okay"?  What exactly are we trying to recover "to"?

 

 

 

 

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:17 | 473183 centerline
centerline's picture

Bingo.  Bubblenomics.  And we are technically still in one - per se.  Just nevermind the huge holes and air rushing out - or the technical targets on the DOW, S&P, etc.

The only real questions now relate to whether or not the powers of the world can draw this disaster out in controlled manner (to thier benefit of course), or they cannot and things get ugly - and if they cannot and things get ugly, whether a war or other mechanism can be crafted, or we simply go apeshit into some sort of new order (or lack thereof).

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:14 | 473180 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

1999?

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 08:49 | 473137 CosmoJoe
CosmoJoe's picture

Obama knows the economy is in shambles.  Politicians are in business to do one thing; make themselves and their policies look as good as possible.  You will never see Obama, or any other politician, admit to any mistakes unless absolutely forced to do so (Clinton & Lewinsky, etc) - and even when forced to do so, will only admit or apologize to the bare minimum required.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 13:00 | 473176 Astute Investor
Astute Investor's picture

Politicians are in business to do one thing; make themselves and their policies look as good as possible.

 

+1

From the first day they were elected to office, all politicians remain in a perpetual state of running for re-election.....

 

"Do you know what every first-term administration wants?  A second term!"

- Clear And Present Danger -

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 08:40 | 473118 MarketFox
MarketFox's picture

Obamanomics= Political rhetoric and harmful economics....

.....................................

Financial reform = FAIL

Health reform = FAIL

Energy Independence = FAIL

........................................

See the pattern ?

........................................

The 2006/7 numbers in terms of credit and asset valuation = 100/100....

The uncovering of false assets made the number 60/100...

The further monetary dilution and false low rates will make the ratio drop even further....

The implementation of policies that devalue businesses in general are built into the "new" policies....

Obamanomics = Economics Incompetence

 

 

 

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 08:38 | 473112 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

So we know what the teleprompter thinks, but what does the president think?

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 08:37 | 473111 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

anyone else smell a faint odor of...desperation?

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:58 | 473389 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Wish I did.  I'm not sure they're smart enough to understand that this puppy has to crash and burn.  Where are those Columbia transcripts?  Was it liesure studies or liberation theology?

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 08:24 | 473096 Translational Lift
Translational Lift's picture

Since when did the bamma ever let facts get in the way of his BS........

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 07:58 | 473072 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Propoganda, it's all fascist governments know.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 07:57 | 473070 10044
10044's picture

Who says Obummer "reads" anything?? He says what he's told to say

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 11:41 | 473500 4shzl
4shzl's picture

Barry O. -- aka the Manchurian candidate.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 07:52 | 473067 Gully Foyle
Gully Foyle's picture

Recovery! No Mad Max future!

FUCK!

I was so looking forward to reaving Gold from ZH members.

There goes my retirement plan.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 07:08 | 473053 Eric Cartman
Eric Cartman's picture

What a jack wagon! He think's Americans are dumb enough to continue believing his nonsense. If I ever see Obama, I'm gonna kick him in the nuts.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 10:59 | 473398 docj
docj's picture

Well, to the extent that the poll called out in this morning's "Daily Highlights" can be believed, the jack-wagon may be absolutely spot-on in that belief.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-15/americans-blame-bush-for-defici...

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 08:44 | 473128 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

99% of the population will take that pill, because television never lies according to them.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 04:24 | 473014 Privatus
Privatus's picture

Whatadouche.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 04:24 | 473013 Privatus
Privatus's picture

Whatadouche.

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 09:09 | 473171 Mitchman
Mitchman's picture

You can say that again.  :-)

Fri, 07/16/2010 - 02:46 | 472966 agrotera
agrotera's picture

 "President Obama is pinching his stimulus plan today in Michigan" 

...this comment is rude, disgusting, scatilogic, yes but really folks, it kind of sounds more like the truth of what happened in Michigan today.

-RosannaRosannaDanna

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