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October 14 Morning Update
Submitted By Nic Lenoir of ICAP
Earnings are coming in higher than expected not surprisingly. Some of the details though such as margin for Intel are trully better than what was baked in. On the day we are getting close to the topside resistance trend joining recent highs around 1,087/1,088. Above that the topside of the expanding triangle is resistance at about 1,100, but given divergence I would rather expect ranging between 1,077 and 1,087 during the day before the next wave of earnings barring any data coming way off line one way or the other. There is a minor resistance around 1,071 below that, but should we break 1,077 the real support comes in at 1,065.
The Dax future has a very clear resistance coming up at 5,907 corresponding to the topside of the channel, I would watch it in parallel to what is happening in the US equity markets as the market structure is much clearer there.
Regarding the Nikkei I was relatively pleased with the price action last night. Given how Intel earnings propped the market up in after hours in the US, finishing down on the day confirms the weakness we saw in the charts yesterday. The attached chart highlights once again the resistance area between the neckline of the H&S and the gap left open on 09/28. As long as the market remains under 10,230 we would have a relatively strong bearish preference.
Overall we are running extensions in the US, getting close to a strong resistance in the Dax, and retesting the bearish acecleration level in Nikkei. US treasuries however still look bearish here, and until the next big support at 116-25 is tested I remain bearish in 10Y futures from 119-23. That would not really sit well with weaker equities in the US. Strongest views are in Treasuries and Nikkei, and I would recommend observing the 1,077/1,087 in S&P futures for now.
Good luck trading,
Nic
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Nic - Have you made a prediction/forecast/call of any sort that has been accurate in the last 6 months?
No Bull
I usually read these posts so I know what NOT to do.
+1
"Next stop, Down 20,000! Get in while it's cheap. And by the way, I've got some real estate in Florida that I can get you a phenomenal deal on..."
+1
"Next stop, Down 20,000! Get in while it's cheap. And by the way, I've got some real estate in Florida that I can get you a phenomenal deal on..."
Give up man! FED won, you lost, join the pyramid and prosper.
I was thinking the same. Perhaps we should just take the opposite side to these posts.
Technical statements are usually "hedged" with a lot of "if then " and "if not" statements so what is the opposite?
I cant stand Haines and Burnett grinning ear to ear at the Dow breaking 10k. I hate all the commentators they bring on who are all saying the markets go higher for no logical reason.
Would love to slap Burnett after she responded with NOT ENOUGH to Haines saying STOCKS ARE UP. Stocks are up 65% from the lows, you airhead!
Eh, just remind them that we already celebrated the 10K party before, like a while ago, and that they shouldn't get all giddy until we're back above 14K. That'll smack the smirk off their ugly mugs.
I am Chumbawamba.
I remember those 10k hats they pulled out the last time 10k was broken on the way up.
What I don't understand is why they don't break out the hats when 10k is broken on the way down?
Just askin'
watch axp, cof for a sign of the consumer.
I have a bad feeling something isn't right...
Why do I feel like something is about to BLOW UP right in our faces real shortly and fast...
I can't make heads or tails about all these huge gains / earnings when everyone I know is standing in the toilet bowl...
WTF is actually going on Tyler...
Is an ATOMIC financial bomb ready to go off on the BIG STREET ?
Dollar crisis coming up next...
yep GG, you are right. I would love to see more discussion on this in terms of potential unintended consequences. I think i have many figured out but am looking for those that i haven't thought of.
all i know is that history will show bernanke and company in a most unfavorable light.
Could someone please elaborate for those of us who are not as savvy on our financial history?
The view is that for now the declining dollar is good for the stock market so don't worry, be happy.
The premise is that when the stock market wants/needs a stronger dollar, the dollar will magically respond and move higher.
Are we so sure this would happen? No, thus the reason they don't talk about it.
Could be a sterling crisis first, that doesn't look happy at all.
> ATOMIC financial bomb
Atomic financial BONG. Filled with hopium. Gets everyone all high and bubbleicious.
Pass it along, fool!
I am Chumbawamba.
read american history.
your answer lies within.
and, if you have doubts, read world history, particularly focusing on world economic history.
history. ALWAYS. repeats. itself.
... best comment I've read today.
Placed in analagous terms, we are a piece of bread in a toaster. We may not know it yet, but our leaders effectively dialed the toaster up to "11".
Why "11"? Because it's one more than "10".
h/t to Spinal Tap.
" It goes to 11".
Absolutely right on.
Is it time to renumber the wave count AGAIN??????? Are we back in wave 2?? hahaha, EW at its finest
only a fool says such things about that which he does not understand. realizing market gains is another skill many lack.
Why don't you guys put out your forecast if you so smart. Nic is trying and informing what more do you want for a free site.-
Oh, i don't know, how about a lack of bias??
What amazes me most about these EW types is that
they hv a thesis FIRST and then use TA to try
to support it. That's ass backwards. Let TA make your thesis!
May be you are looking at the wrong direction. I think the currency field is the next battle line,and that will spill over into equities. I am waiting for Eur to blast off and in the interim kill some of the weaker economies in Europe. And then Merkel will have to decide:either print,or abandone the whole united Europe concept. Currency crisis is probably close to unfold. We will see were the dxy will end up shortly.........
I enjoy Nic's charts, but I would agree his predictions are off base. Oil broke its uptrend but is back to rallying.
But doesn't anyone find it a bit odd that even with Intel powering the markets since yesterday the Nikkei still closed down (even though a small downward move)...just seems strange to me in the face of the whole the world is going gangbusters.
If we get a reversal today despite JPM & Intel it would be strong sign of exhaustion. Does anybody know how downside protection disappears with October expiry. I reckon a lot of people would have bought protection for September and October, but November and December???
ROMAN EMPIRE
Part 2
AMERIKA's FALL
;(
I know JPM didn't make no profit because I see their name pop up on my caller ID all the time trying to collect on that credit card I defaulted...er, I mean I bailed out on several weeks ago.
Fuck their lies.
I am Chumbawamba.
havent you got the memo? the crash is scheduled for the weeks between oct 26th to Nov 7th.
If it doesnt happen...i will join the pyramid and prosper..enough of the pessimism p*rn
Would that be just a crash in the equity markets, or a Dollar Crash which takes most of the world down with it?
Just checking to see if we got the same memo. Mine says the latter....
The current dollar demise (likely engineered) is the fuel for this carry trade into most asset classes such as US equities. Watch that FX dilemma first and you shall all survive. Frothiest currency now is NZD but GBP among the majors still has room to dive. The Fed and Treasury know this is a problem. They just don't know how to pull the POLITICAL plug!
Gearing up for the biggest sell signal of all time. Dow 10,000 ;-)
Anyone who went short after the FAS 157 mark to fantasy accounting rule change deserves to get squeezed. I know too many guys that were short crazy after the big plunge. Sad thing is most of these people didnt know what they were doing, your basic retail investors. Also, many technicians and market timers got killed at the SPX 900 level. That was a reasonable bet but with the FED being so loose it was too scary for me to go short so still i wait.
Dow is going to break 10000 and the CNBS staff are going to put on their DOW 10000 hats LOL. Let it go to 11,000 and the SPX to 1150. At that point im going short and i dont care if i get squeezed. By dow 11,000 even the biggest bears out there will have capitulated to the "liquidity inflation flood". Personally i believe that Ben is going to say fuck you to Mr. Market and it will be completely unexpected. Watch some big ass bank get taken apart which will tank the markets and shoot the USDX up.
Where have you been. The bears are already
dead and out of the market for the most
part, so if this thing ever blows there
are no buyers below. Ben's not smart
enough to know that cause he's never
traded....he just prints.
I'm not worried at all. Ben the paper-hanger is printing
up another batch of dollars to help us break through
the resistance levels.