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October Consumer Confidence Big Miss To Expectations, Continues Drift Lower
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence number for the month of October hit 47.7, a major decline from the September number of 53.4 and over a 5 point differential from the expected reading of 53.1. The data series has trended flat since hitting a high of 54.80 in May and has recently accelerated its pick up. As a reminder a reading above 90 means the economy is on solid footing. Above 100 signals strong growth. We are nowhere close and in fact getting worse by the month with unemployment, commodity inflation and wage deflation taking their toll on US consumers.
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But, but, but, everyone said the recession is over.
Yeah, where's my GREEN SHOOTS BERNANKE!!!!!!!
Oh, looks like you missed the fine print under those statements:
* The recession is over unless you are in one of the following fields or do not live in the Hamptons:
Agriculture, Construction, Grocery, Health Care, Advertising, Internet Publishing, Aerospace, Aircraft,
Airline, Manufacturing, Apparel & Accessories, Automotive, Music, Newspaper, Publishing, Broadcasting, Online Auctions, Pension Funds, Biotechnology, Pharmaceuticals, Call Centers, Chemical, Computer, Real Estate, Consulting, Retail & Wholesale, Consumer Products, Cosmetics, Services, Defense, Department Stores, Software, Education, Sports, Electronics, Technology, Energy, Telecommunications, Entertainment & Leisure, Television, Executive Search, Transportation, Venture Capital
The beginning of the recession was officially declared after three quarters of negative GDP growth, while the end of the it - even before a single one of positive.
Shocking. Not to those of us on ZH/other blogs, but that this number was allowed to dip so soon. It definitely killed the market's exuberance over the Case Shiller 3-month moving average increase. Combined with the Richmond Fed's huge miss of expectations, we've got an interesting day shaping up.
lets see. this is clearly not selling off as one would have expected. perhaps the thought is that QE 2.0 is about to begin, or that Cash-4-Whatever is about to be launched, or an immediate housing tax credit increase.
Maybe we are just working off a short-term over sold condition.
Next test, as i see it, is the auction at 1.
Yes, clearly this signals more QE (for the two doubters still out there, polishing their Nobel prizes). Time to buy the banks! On credit card funded margin accounts, preferably.
Eventually it will be "Cash 4 Cash" or CFC. You put $5, government matches it with another $5 and you buy $10 worth of chinese made crap at Wal Mart. That $5 that the gov gave you has been loaned by the same chinese who made the crap for you.
The only thing that they are currently working on is the ratio, is it 50-50 or what. I vote on 3% us and 97% government similar to the forgotten 'Toxic asset purchase plan'
it sounds more like cash for crap to me...but that
could be just a minor wordsmithing problem...
Come on Tyler you're not trying!
"You'll be swell! You'll be great!
Gonna have the whole world on the plate!
Starting here, starting now,
honey, everything's coming up roses!"
A more appropriate tune might be "Happy Days are here Again."
My god is Steve Leisman a horses ass. Talk about disconnected from reality.
Looking to take the title from Baghdad Ben.
If you're smart, you'll turn it off and stop listening to fudgepackers like Liesman. Way to many people obsess about what they're saying on a network that's totally fucking worthless. I mean, who fucking cares? If Liesman gets some moron to part with his money and take the other side of my trade, he's doing me a fucking favor.
Fuck.
Yeah, but even as they are worried about the economy, they are loading themselves up with mortages and new cars because of the free gub'ent money. Just doing one thing and saying another...
once the cash for christmas program gets started the numbers will start to soar....it's time to start carpet bombing america with free money....
So the market doesn't care about such things as the economy or consumers or anything like that.
They are banksters and get free money to gamble, with no risk thanks to the poor suckers who are forced by the government to give up their money to feed the machines
And the banksters singing, "If you've got the money, honey, we've got the time"--all the way to the bank. When it comes to confidence, no wonder gloomy Main Street and giddy Wall Street are on divergent pathways. Even Halloween is tanking.
“It looks like Halloween isn’t going to be much of a treat for retailers this year,” says Robin Goldwyn Blumenthal this week in Barron’s, because consumers are “spooked over spending.”
“Even if the banks are on the mend and back to minting money,” that’s how Blumenthal sees it anyway, “it seems that the weary consumer is still reeling from the recession. So much so, in fact, that he (or she) plans to spend an average of 15% less this year than last on Halloween items like candy, decorations and costumes. That's according to the National Retail Federation, which found that nearly one-third of those polled...say the sorry state of the U.S. economy has gotten them spooked about spending. This year, Americans are expected to spend an average of $56.31 per family for the holiday, or a total of just $4.75 billion, down from '08's $66.54, or $5.77 billion.”
…”this is the first time in the six years the group has conducted the survey that total spending is expected to slip, with the number of people planning to celebrate falling to 62%, from 65% in 2008.
“A full 88% of those who say the economy is an issue will spend less overall, with 17% opting to make their own costumes, and 47% buying less candy."
It all fits with the lows in consumer confidence Alan Abelson in Barron’s this week shares Stephanie Pomboy’s “belief that third-quarter corporate earnings are as good as it gets. From here on, cost savings are slated to diminish…revenues will be the key.”
According to Pomboy’s MacroMavens, over the past year companies have cut labor costs by an unprecedented $327 billion, or more than 25%, yet corporate earnings fell $177 billion.
Says Abelson, “She calculates that for revenues to match that cost savings would require consumer spending, now shrinking by 0.3% from last year, to climb more than 3%.”
Yet consumer stocks are red-hot, up some 77% from their lows.
Says Abelson: Stephanies muses that perhaps the bulls are counting on the public sector to replace vanishing labor income in the private sector…since government has been the one and only source of job creation over the past decade”—swellling the ranks over this period by 2 million while the private sector shed 588,000.
Trouble is, “1.95 million of those 2 million slots were filled by state and local governments” who had to “shave 70,000 workers over the past 12 months” because they no longer have the scratch—the tax receipts.
that's $56.31 more than i'm going to spend...
Layoffs and less pay are great for the stock market as companies beat their BS earning guidance. The consumer and employee is paying the price dearly. At some-point perhaps the two converge again!
I'm confident of a lot of things:
1. I'm confident that the administration and Congress have painted us into a corner.
2. I'm confident that Citibank is in some serious shit.
3. I'm confident that the global economy continues to contract as it must, although I'm bummed that I won't be able to get a Big Mac in Iceland or a Starbucks mocha grande in Bugtussel.
4. I'm confident in my Mossberg, Winchester ammo and gold.
5. Most of all, I'm confident that if the shit really does hit the fan, both the Mexican and US border guards at Acuna will flee, opening a straight shot into the interior of Mexico.
Viva Mexico.
i'm confident that a bailout will save citi
i'm confident that monetizing big macs could have
saved iceland
i'm confident that a dollar won't be worth a peso
by the time you get there....
And another afternoon of permabids in BAC, bringing it into the green with JPM, COF, and AXP. Makes tremendous sense after the HBC delinquency rates this afternoon...
Film at 11:59
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wcW_Ygs6hm0