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October ISM Service Prints At 54.3, Better Than 53.5 Expected And September's 53.2
US ISM Non-Manufacturing comes at 54.3, a beats of consensus of 53.5, and the prior number of 53.2. A quick look at the components:
- New Orders: 56.7 vs. Prev. 54.9
- Employment: 50.9 vs. Prev. 50.2
- Prices: 68.3 vs. Prev. 60.1
Direct from the report:
The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of
the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey
Committee; and senior vice president — supply management for Hilton
Worldwide. "The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 54.3 percent in
October, 1.1 percentage points higher than the 53.2 percent registered
in September, and indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing
sector at a slightly faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business
Activity Index increased 5.6 percentage points to 58.4 percent,
reflecting growth for the 11th consecutive month at a substantially
faster rate than in September. The New Orders Index increased 1.8
percentage points to 56.7 percent, and the Employment Index increased
0.7 percentage point to 50.9 percent, indicating growth in employment
for the second consecutive month and the fourth time in the last six
months. The Prices Index increased 8.2 percentage points to 68.3
percent, indicating that prices increased significantly faster in
October. According to the NMI, 11 non-manufacturing industries reported
growth in October. Respondents' comments remain mixed about business
conditions and vary by industry and company. The trend of the overall
comments indicates that there are signs of economic stabilization."
As always, the respondents paint the most accurate picture:
- "Sales are still down compared to last year, but showing a slight increase." (Public Administration)
- "Economy still slow for our industry, with very small signs of
recovery. Strong downward pricing pressures from customers affecting
business." (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services) - "Some positive growth in comp [comparable] sales over the past 2 to 3 months." (Accommodation & Food Services)
- "Business is picking up ever so slowly, but improving." (Transportation & Warehousing)
- "Generally stable-to-improving demand for our products." (Wholesale Trade)
A breakdown of all components:
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Prices: 68.3 vs. Prev. 60.1
So we'll start seeing this in the next couple weeks, months?
I went to buy OJ yesterday and saw quite a healty price jump from 2 weeks ago.
Food + energy = inflation
Everything else = deflation
That is very true, although I believe we will see a crash in commodity prices again like in late 08/early 09 in a few months.
bingo. deflation > inflation... there was an article within the last 6 months on zh discussing this issue briefly... essentially, these price increases are just temporary increases in the greater deflationary cycle...
We've changed our shopping strategy once again over the continually rising prices. Now, we buy as much of something as we'll use befor the expiration date. For instance, we go through one big jug of OJ per week. The batch on the shelves was dated through Nov 26, so we bought four to last the month.
It may be time for a second fridge in the garage so we can stock up on perishables that can't be frozen.
yes. say it with me - margin compression.
QE2 anyway, bitchez!
I wonder what will happen in Nov./Dec. when campaign spending fades away. How will the service sector continue to expand? How many jobs will be lost? What about after the holidays?
Everything here shows improvement, whether you like it or not. How long have I been saying a looong slow slog? More proof right here and it's going in the right direction.
I agree, it is better.. So let's take this market of it's QE life support and see how she goes solo.... Ben.. Better rewrite your speech for today.. No qe needed here.. Things are getting better!
Exports are down, and so are Supplier Deliveries. So how is "everything showing improvement"? Dollar has been beaten to the ground and our service exports are still falling.
Prices going up in a high unemployment environment is good for the economy? This means people will have less money to spend on non-essentials and/or prices will need to be reduced and corporate margins squeezed. Please elaborate for us how this is improvement.
Repost from other thread I just wrote to this point:
Anecdotal but important - my business sells consumer discretionary and we had our best September in 9 years. We're seeing what could shape up to be our best Holiday Season as well kicking off.
There is a wealth effect created by stimulating the economy. It will send investment to small business which in turn will lead to hiring. It's happening now. We added two more positions in our small place.
You guys need to get out and see what's really happening away from the doom repeated over and over on this forum. In small business, what I'm seeing right now at this conference and in our own, things are getting better, not worse. That's real life. Not some fantasy of "what if's" and "when this happens, look out" crap that most post here.
I have a friend that works for Allstate at a very large center in Ohio. They just announced they are laying off next year about 200 people. So you hired 2 people, and they are laying off 200. Nice ratio to recovery there.
I am glad your business is doing better than before. However I would be hesitant to extrapolate that success to all other businesses and claim all is well from a long-term perspective. Excessive debt created this crisis that began to unravel in 2007. Until that debt is reduced to a manageable level there can be no sustainable recovery. Yes there will be bounces in the business cycle but should not be mistaken for a long-term trajectory.
Xie Xie ni Harry..Xie Xie ni
My small company is finishing its layoffs next week. Approx 400-500. So, I trump your two hires and raise you several hundred layoffs.
The danger is always thinking our situation is everyone's situation. However, I look around and I do not see wholesale hiring and new empty storefronts literally every day. You may be doing well and that's good to hear. However, I could turn your comment back on you and say you need to get out and see what's out there. I submit things can be quite different in Detroit, Las Vegas, Peoria or Orlando...not to mention different industries. I hope the data quoted here are true but I am suspicious.
The one thing that economies and even governments have in their favor is the natural impulse of all entrepreneurs and businesses to make their businesses better and find new products and services. The drive is to grow not contract.
Yep Harry, since everythings doing so well, lets take away all the QE money printing life support machines from the markets and raise rates to say, a measly TWO%? Lets see how that works out!
Your company sells 'consumer discretionary' huh? Well I have no idea what that means, Apple store maybe... but maybe say what company that is which you work for and just had its greatest year in 9 years so we can all verify the numbers?
They sell "Hopium".
Demand has never been greater. I don't know if that is shown in the ISM though - is Hopium production (hot air, fluff) considered to be manufacturing or non-manufacturing?
Improvement, huh? I don't know much, but I can tell you that the company I work for has been waiting for our restock inventory from China for over a month now. It has been on the ship and ready to go, but the ship won't leave until it is full. I am still learning about how this shithole economy works, but I have enough common sense to see that American companies are not importing hand-over-fist like we used to. C'mon people, start buying those i-pods and i-pads and i-phones so my company can get its crap over here and honor its backorders!
Overall, business has been depressed, with little spikes in orders here and there. There ain't no recovery where I'm working and I can see the writing on the wall as far as my job is concerned. We are already on a skeleton crew but will probably end up cutting more in the future. I'm just keeping my nose to the grindstone and my fingers crossed that I can stay employed for a little while longer 'cuz where I live there isn't much in the way of work. Glad you're optimistic Harry, but I respectfully disagree with your analysis.
Grrrr, is this setting the scene for another big supprise later? Might just hold them Euro shorts afterall.
Nothing more than noise...there is no break-out trend....up a little....then down a little......
Feels like everything is muted, awaiting the 2:15 FOMC announcement.
Bouncing along the bottom of the river.
Up a little, down a little. Trend? sure thing! Lets try the equivalent in Engrish.
"I'll save this month so I can buy what I need next month"; Rinse, repeat. I can tell that you that this is exactly what I am doing. We go light one month on all essentials so we can buy bulk the next and get more for our money. It makes it easier to stock up this way too, so long as we buy more than we use in than bulk buy. We've reduced entertainment expenses by 90% (including eating out). Now we are waiting for the holiday sales to start before we shop for clothes for the kids. We're going to a "1 present per person" rule for x-mas that isn't a clothing item (bought on sale). I opted out of gifts but my wife was stubborn about buying me one.
Home economics is like the human body. All non-essential parts get shut down first.
Uh uh.... more good news.
Time for the bad news bears to kick in and discredit this report as it doesn't fit the narrative of all things falling apart.
Is it possible that things aren't as bad as everyone here seems to think? I mean maybe just possible?
Christ, I have to fight traffic to get into my favorite Portillo's because the crowds at the adjacent Chuck-e-Cheese are so large. Doesn't look like an economic collapse to me.
And by the way, Ben seems to be taking very good care of the markets; please participate and make a buck instead of jousting with windmills. You will not lose your souls, I promise. It seems with the exceptions of Leo and Harry, most here are being left far behind in this market recovery.
Chuck-E-Cheese has picked up business due to people downgrading from the more expensive parties at amusment parks/zoos/waterparks. I went to a Chuck-E-Cheese in 07 on a weekend and it was dead, totally dead. Now I see people at that one all the time. Also wages have been proven to be falling, while food and energy prices are rising. How is that a healthy economy again? You need to know that markets != economy <=> economy != markets in todays world. Until the Fed pulles the trough from the PD's, this complete disconnect in the world will remain broken.
Never served in the first division but did my share with the 5th Mech...
Who says this is a "healthy" economy? It isn't great but we're not in a collapse either. The economic data indicates the same thing with consistency; economic growth is slowly getting better. That's all. And that is a point that I believe Hary tries to make as well. We all know that there's no 5% GDP and that government spending is still a large influence but still, economic reporting is showing that things are improving. Not that they're great but that they are improving.
The comments here seem to skew to the idea that things cannot be getting better; the report writers are just lying or that no matter the improvement, just wait, things are going to collapse. Every day there is a calamity about to befall western civilization yet every day, there is still a tomorrow. Think about it. Has France shut down? Have the PIGGS collapsed into a state of anarchy? Are the streets of America flooded with the homeless who are starving and dying from exposure? Has anyone had to go to a neighbor's bunker and exchange some gold for beans? No, but the hyperbole on this board would have you think those events are just around the corner. Christ, the whole foreclosure fraud issue will be dealt with and settled and the regular crowd will again make money on their crimes. And I promise every one here that no one is going to drag any banker or politician to the town square and hang them.
It just doesn't work that way and rational people know this. If you want to know what happens when people in this country get fed up, just look at the events of yesterday.
Problem is that has been the storyline here for at least the last year and so far it has been dead wrong.
And by the way, under what scenario do you see the Fed pulling the trough from the PDs?
Has it been dead wrong? or would you have broken the vase if ZH didn't say anything?
Just maybe, sites like this one are riling people up enough to make a difference. Just take a look at the events of yesterday.
Yep. And of course all the auto makers are "lying" with their stronger sales as well. If people are buying cars and igadgets, we're a long way from "collapse".
I say the same, not healthy or great but certainly not going to "fall off a cliff". Just a very slow slog of growth.
I don't think people will be too enthusiastic about i-things and cars when taxes are raised (you mean we have to pay for the bailout?), and the republicans let the bottom (finally) fall out of the housing market. The future of discretionary spending and job creation look bleak in the face these aspects. Amerika is now a 2nd world country....and deteriorating. Maybe Walmart and Costco are still hiring?
"Are the streets of America flooded with the homeless who are starving and dying from exposure"?
I live in a town of 15,000 people. Within 5 miles of the town center, in a wooded area, on county property near CSX rails there exists a tent village of 1,700 people. The City Council and County officials could have them removed but continue turn their heads because they don't want them shuffled into town. Our local Mission is building to accomodate another 250 homeless men. I don't know where you are on the planet but down here in rural America it IS bad.
Nothin but static, a little background noise on numbers that are historically terrible today.
BTW No Mas, what did you expect with full-on life support from Bernanke and the Inkjets? Go ahead, remove all the weekly billions pumped in and raise rates to just a paltry 2% and see how things are improving! Good luck on that.
Leo, Harry, No Mas you 3 stooges will get the big guillotine soon enough, bunch of permabull 'tards will suddenly be gone.
Sorry to disappoint Sheep-Dog, but my platform can reverse to a short position with the best of them. It is just that right now, shorting is not the way to go. Could change this afternoon, but not yet. I am a perma-nothing and as such I can accept that things are improving as easily as I could accept that things were getting worse.
You strike me as a bit dogmatic. I am a realist. It would fit my emoitional view on things for the economy and society's condition to be inverse to the size and intervention of the central government but unfortunatley, that isn't what has happened. So I accept that things can get better with TARP, bailouts and QE whatever and plan my trading strategy around that reality.
As for the big guillotine; bring it on! Markets have always paid me faster on the downside than the up so maybe I can finally afford a new set of wings.
I would hope being a smart investor you at least have from far dated otm puts or some shorts for hedging right now. Otherwise you are punting quite naked long and have put all your hopes that the market rises at 2:15pm.
Far OTM puts/calls are my version of a day at the track, betting on the three legged nag to pull off the upset.
Great fun with little money risked. ITM plays have never been my strong suit.
OH your HFT machine is souped-up! I see!
Also No Mas, I would fit your emotional view on things as being Silly Putty, willing to go along with anything, one of Stalins useful idiots. Tyler just put up a useful idiot post this morning.
Now that is one extreme analogy. I see the economic data as showing an improving economic environment and trade short/long on a very short timeframe and that makes me a "useful idiot to Stalin"? I cannot see how trading markets IAW all applicable laws and regulations, with my own capital (no free money from the Fed here) can be equated to those who assisted a genocidal maniac in the slaughter of millions.
This is exactly the kind of hyperbole I speak of. If you have a legitimate point, it can be made without the irrational comaprisons to dictators and mass murders. Do you also see an analogy to Hitler?
Tell you what No Mas - let's have the Fed.Gov stop spending $110B per month that they don't have and see what happens to all this "good news", eh?
Good luck with your so-called recovery. Hope you have some nice, tight stops in place.
Amen...a simple question to all those who claim the recovery is here:
"If things are going so well why does the Fed continue to maintain rates near zero and continue the business of purchasing worthless assets from institutions."
And everyones tight stops mean nada when theyre gapped across one night!
Who holds a position overnight?
I recognize that the source of the improvement is from fiscal intervention. I recognize that if the "punch bowl" is removed now that the expansion would stop.
My point is only that, regardless of the source, there is improvement. I can't claim to know if the expansion will be self sustaining after the stimulus effect.
I do not accept the doomsday scenarios so often published in these comments. The collapse so often predicted is just not in sight.
We are in for the same old same old. More intervention and slow growth with high unemployment (>8% report U3 / >12% reported U6) for many years to come.
No public hangings, no end to the US dollar and no exchange of gold coins for food from your neighbor's bunker.
And reality TV will fade to be replaced with a different form of mind numbing entertainment.
There is nothing new under the sun.
Fair enough.
Cheers -
What is getting better?
The media's lies and cover up
And then next month you will have a downward revision of this figure.
Every month the market falls for it.
A new sucker is not needed when the old suckers remain.
OT: I made an animated cartoon inspired by today's festivities.
LOL Hansel, Err'n Boobette is so hot right now! Markets up 2 billion in the last 100!!
If the trends are real then no more QE is needed. The growth no longer depends on money printing and goverment spending. Private sector is kicking ass.
'All is well'...although far more total intervention, more hundreds of billions at 0% however needed to infinity!
Don't shoot the messenger -
Word is, Obama and Michelle recently made a music video. He wants you to know who the big boss is. Volume up.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zQ-hPNrKdZI
Chart: COMP
http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/11/comp.html
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts
Is this the result of the fed buying and selling bonds and in that process injecting money into the economy?
Double post. Hit enter saw nothing happen. Hit save.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
There is a light at the end of the tunnel. This is not a deep hole we will never be able to get out of. Some may not make it and die of exhaustion in the process. That light at the end of the tunnel is dim, maybe it's just an energy saving lightbulb because that's all we're able to afford soon but there is a light.
Cheers,
Senator Flass-Galf-Hull
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