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October NFP: Up 151,000, Private Up 159,000, Unemployment Rate 9.6%, Underemployment Rate 17%, Birth Death Adds 61K
So why did we need QE2 again? The dollar is surging, and USD shorts are about to get clobbered.
Highlights:
- Unemployment rate: 9.64%, just shy of 9.7%, compared to September's 9.58%
- U-6 Rate at 17%, down 0.1% from September
- September data revised from -95K to -41K
- US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) M/M 151K vs. Exp. 60K (Prev. -95K, Rev. to -41K)
- Change in Private Payrolls (Oct) M/M 159K vs. Exp. 80K (Prev. 64K, Rev. to 107K)
- Birth/Death adds 61K after adding just 11K last month
- Those unemployed for over 27 weeks increases to 6,206, represents 41% of total unemployed
- Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (Oct) M/M -7K Exp. 5K (Prev. -6K, Rev. to -2K)
- US Average Hourly Earnings (Oct) M/M 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.0%, Rev. to 0.1%)
- US Average Hourly Earnings (Oct) Y/Y 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. 1.7%)
- US Average Weekly Hours (Oct) M/M 34.3 vs. Exp. 34.2 (Prev. 34.2)
Some other observations:
- Both the civilian labor force participation rate, at 64.5 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 58.3 percent, edged down over the month.
- The reasons - the number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) fell by 318,000 over the month to 9.2 million, partially offsetting large increases in the prior 2 months. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.
- Among the marginally attached, there were 1.2 million discouraged workers in October, an increase of 411,000 from a year earlier.
- As for the export-led recovery, manufacturing jobs declined by 7,000 on expectations of growth of +5,000.
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WTF?
election jobs bump ??
150k of poll watchers, election callers, CNN pudnits. and lets not forget robosigners.
I completely forgot the scam of counting poll workers as "workers".
You must begrudgingly admire the inventiveness of the sociopaths mind.
- 300 employed. populated added 300, +538 welfare...
KoooollllllllllllAAAAAAAAAAAAAAIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIDDDDDDDDDDDD
Only 5k construction jobs. The rest was service and health care. Manufacturing lost 7k.. It was a terrible print... Terrrible..
Rather than rehash the excellent points made here regarding the absurdity of these numbers, I'm going to go ahead and point out the one data point that I'm willing to bet scares the Fed governors shitless.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MZMV?cid=32242
I think they really want this to be above 1.8 (or, at the very least, stop it from flatlining or going lower), and are crapping themselves trying to figure out how to make that happen. I think the hawks are in the "decrease MZM faster than the rate of GDP decline" camp, and the doves are in the "increase GDP faster than the rate of MZM increase" camp. I think they're actually both wrong, neither one is going to work, the MZM has a lot further to fall, and the Fed can't fix it.
Excellent point.
Can you explain in a few sentences the inplications of this number?
From below the chart - "Velocity is a ratio of nominal GDP to a measure of the money supply. It
can be thought of as the rate of turnover in the money supply--that is,
the number of times one dollar is used to purchase final goods and
services included in GDP."
Thanks.. I got that part.. I still don't understand the implications of that.. I'm just a dumb engineer.. Does that imply deflation?
The simplest way to look at it is that the money that the banks have in excess reserves being lent out, then spent, then respent and so on so forth.
I think certain people (including some PhD economists) do view it as implying deflationary pressure, but I think this is an incorrect interpretation, I don't think it implies either inflation or deflation. It simply is a measure of how effective the money in the system is at influencing the nominal GDP. The key to getting it working again: banks loaning money.
Problem: They're not. In fact, total loans and leases are down almost a trillion dollars. Until the balance sheets get repaired, we're going to be in a balance sheet recession, regardless of whether we're in a state of inflation or deflation.
Implication: Accept lower yield. There literally is no upside to this.
The banks are taking money in and not loaning it out to cover their massive credit losses. Even as Helicopter Ben prints, it is just vanishing into the TBTF vaults. Deflation will be the final result since no one is going to have access to any form of money or credit.
"no one is going to have access to any form of money or credit."
I wouldn't count out the government stepping in as a lender through a consumer banking contracted conduit. They can mark loans to whatever the fuck they want, and have basically unlimited legal authority to collect.
Because the banks told him to do it, jeez.
lol spin that one tyler!
JAFO here .. Seasonal adjustment for the retail sector hiring for the holiday season.. ROFLMAO
Yeah, every analyst missed that one, must be something in the water.
Naww .. Like Zandi, they're thinking that the private entertainers and coke importers wouldn't get counted until next months numbers reflected the impact of the WS bonus season
+++
More like you are thinking that every 100k the jobs numbers rise, you will have to throw out another box of beans.
Like that $500 bottle of wine & Ukie student visa action would be provided forever ... there are other areas of retail that will get trickle down and ultimately aid household formation.
http://www.jellybelly.com/shop/ProductDetail.aspx?ProductID=52962
You may be right though, in truth i was expecting the manufacturing/exporters to be providing the lift because the $ has been hammered, but seeing as those jobs were nearly all in the private sector, there is a case for at least glancing at this phenomenon with a slight bearish twist. But for today, be happy, your country is on the mend brother.
Like QE was ever about employment or broad price stability. Except price stability, albeit however briefly in stocks and bonds .. and employment at various Wall Street firms.
http://www.coolmath.com/algebra/17-exponentials-logarithms/01-exponentia...
HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN THE SKIES ARE BLUE SO CHEER AGAIN?
All hail Ben Bernanke!
Hail Caesar!
Hail Caesar!
Hail Caesar!
http://www.mythinglinks.org/HitlerPlatform~newURL~c~R50~TL.JPG
QE2 was actually a bailout for the ink and paper companies.
The ES just shot up like a rocket.
mark zandi, just explained the genius of QE2.....all i heard was blah, blah, blah, and an extra lick of bernankes arse.
The bootlicker, Zandi, is nothing but a mouthpiece and tool of the Fed.
Notice how they never show Zandi and LIESman below the waist. Ever wonder why? The two-man circle jerk they've got going isn't appropriate for daytime TV.
I'm not a stats expert, but why no language on the household number? Even in their own footnotes they say individuals working more than one job would be counted separately under the establishment data. I have no clue in the world what this impact could be, and no idea if that alone could explain the difference in results, but I would imagine individuals working more than one job, especially on a part-time basis, would be ticking up.
Food for thought. Don't mind me, I'm just a fly on the wall.
Dang, I never thought of that. Good post.
So the cover story is falling apart and the veil is being lifted. Why indeed do we need QE 2?
Because the bankers need it more than anyone or anything else. And the Fed IS the banking cabal.
Who benefits? Just follow the money.
X-mas bonus for keeping the economy going despite the horrendous numbers (with a positive spin), and the likelihood that the lemmings will all jump at once.
My man, CD, steps up and parks it in the bleachers!!
+++++
Who benefits...and who gets f*#ked?
Forget about all that "student of the depression" BS...Ben's formative employment experience was garnered South of the Border:
http://hotdoggerblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/04/ssl23332.jpg
I've always wanted to drive the ultimate phallic symbol to make up for some .....err.....shortcoming.
Can I rent the Oscar Mayer Wienermobile by the hour? Can my wife?
They guys who built that thing must have been pissing their pants laughing the whole time.
Looks like they're still making them. Did you know there are two sizes?
QUIZ - Which one is caucasian?
the little one, from my experience.
It's not little. It's "average".
It has to be to force inflation and asset bubbles abroad and to shove down
the throats of the Asian a stronger currency.
The resulting chaos will put America back in driver seat and some punishment to
emerging economies...It will put incentives for them to pay their own workers more to
help balance trade.
After the resulting chaos, Gold Standard will be back....Heck, its only been since 1971.
Hmmm???? How exactly will it do that?
Bullshit Bitchez!
Zackly Bitchez!
The market is celebrating a continuing trend of losing our manufacturing base for a service economy. It's a terrible model and unsustainable..
WE NEED TO FUCKING BUILD THINGS!!!!
We MUST deflate wages to a point where we can afford to manufacture again. This will severely piss off the rest of the world, but screw 'em. The great consumer is dead. When we start taking jobs back the rest of the world suffers greatly. Standards of living everywhere will crumble to a sustainable point. Then we can begin to build again.
+1 Nice to see somebody "gets it".... Housing and wages need to get back to the 60's level and we will see this in our lifetime.... Buy the stuff you need now and leave the rest in the Bank of Maytag.... cash, not the shiny, shiny will be king in the land of the blind. And don't forget, this WILL NOT end well....
So that's what they mean by money laundering?
If I recall, Maytag made refrigerators, too.
So the fridge (or, more appropriately, the freezer) is an alternative to the mattress. Think "cold hard cash!"
I agree with the general premise but am not convinced we need to wholesale depress wages to get there. The Germans, for example, have pretty high overall wages and benefits (and taxes, of course) yet have a pretty solid manufacturing base because they make quality stuff people want to buy.
One of the many problems with American manufacturing is that for too long we "put the K in quality", if you know what I mean. That's a problem that can be fixed without deflating wages down to India levels.
Though I do agree that a fair degree of wage/price deflation is not only necessary but inevitable in the forseeable future here.
+1...I think, or hope at least, that we as Americans will start to value quality goods over quantity. Screw China and the rest of the low-wage manufacturing countries. I'd rather have one McIntosh component then twenty no-name Chinese pieces.
Agree to a point. Solving the problems for 82m is quite different than for 308m (rought estimates on population). Scale is an issue (like the Weinermobiles above - size matters).
Good point.
FWIW, I doubt any re-birth of manufacturing in the US will be uniform across the country. It will more than likely be clustered in states and communities that are ammenable to it - whereas the rest of the country (like, sadly, my home state of MA) will try to get-along solely on the falicy of the "service-based economy".
global equilibrium bitchez1
not the market but the banks need the liqudity that they can cover the loss from MBS
exactly. Give that man an A+. You'll never make it on CNBS but at least you're right.
QE2 was for the banks only! I still do not believe government spinning machines! They will go on with them 600B and more and more until they think the banks are "safe", we all know they will never recover, never be "healthy" until they go bust and rebuild! Today's unemployment numbers are same smoke and mirrors as ever! TGI Friday!
The spin doctors get at it with the unemployment numbers.
must... keep... under... 10%
For October, we absorbed new entries to the labor force only. Wake me up when we absorb new entries AND start working down the unemployed........
Both the civilian labor force participation rate, at 64.5 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 58.3 percent, edged down over the month.
Evidently, we didn't even do that.
So how this is accomplished in a month when we printed < 400K initial new jobless per week remains a total and complete mystery. Unless of course we now need more than +150K just to keep up with population growth.
I told you guys jobs and lending would increase after the elections. The bankers and big buisness went out of their way to screw the economy to screw Obama. They timed it perfecty for the elections. Regret insulting me yet?
Funny you should say this...becuse these are last months numbers.
Now that was funny.
As I said, they TIMED IT perfectly. Read what I have been writing. Everyone knows the jobs reports are a month old. It was all done purposely.
please. you seem to believe that these numbers are true. who believes that?
nobody.
what's more interesting is we are now going to be treated to several more months of "the economy" is on the mend....while the deterioration continues and the middle class evaporates.....
there's going to be a tipping point here. how long the media can lie blatantly is going to be the key factor....
The banks ran massive needless layoff programs in June/July. They can hire a lot of people back now. How much traction it gets, who knows. But I am pretty sure going into 2012 elections, the situation is going to be much worse for the same reasons.
It's a miracle!
Bernanke is a genius!
Now I can die in peace.....
So, apparently Jan Hatzius does not get the number in advance. Of course, Tyler will simply reverse the spin and say Jan Hatzius and "GS" were simply providing a false read to stampede their clients
Huh? Clarify please.
Well,
If you like it or not; it's good for trade! yah man!
I will withhold judgement until someone much smarter than myself crunches these numbers. Either that, or I find the birth/death model. But for now, color me skeptical.
you have people no longer able to receive unemployment benefits since they're are the 99'ers. they are no longer a stat. they no longer collect UE and therefore looks like all is better all the time. of course you are then considered another stat. you got frustrated and stopped looking.
Agreed. Oct. 08 was my start date but waited until Jan. 09 to begin. EU was a joke and didn't attempt because- there were no jobs to apply for unless I wanted to relocate to, hmmm China? India? Africa?
1st treas, 2nd spus, now Bernacke is in there propping up the jobs #. BS!
QE2 was NOT for unemployment or economic stimulus. It was:
1) a backdoor TARP for the TBTF banks
2) a backdoor bailout for grossly underfunded pension funds, especially state and local govt pension funds
3) a backdoor currency war with China to force them to let the yuan appreciate or risk depreciation of their USD$-denominated debt
The US is now a centrally-controlled economy, communist or fascist, take your pick -- with 535 useful idiots in Congress (plus Limbaugh, O'Reilly, Hannity, and Beck) to keep the unwashed NASCAR-watching, Fox News-junkie masses occupied.
Heh - you were fine until the last sentence. Let us not leave out the "The View" watching, CNN, MSDNC, NY Times, WaPo, CBS, ABC, NBC, NPR News junkie masses, you know.
Fair enough...there ARE liberal unwashed masses, too. But they all are known to support big govt and central planning.
However, the supposedly 'free market' Republican leadership has no problem with what Bernanke is doing....but their mouthpiece Glen Beck (who TD linked to 2 days ago) is blaming QE2 on the "progressives" and "unions".
Guess what, union member Joe-6 Pack is getting screwed on the CD in which he has his IRA/401K invested (because he knows the stock market is corrupt).
Bottomline: virtually all bank-whore federal politicians (Ron Paul & son excepted) support QE2... the Dems predictably, the GOP hypocritically.
First - I didn't junk you (not that you accused me, just getting that out there).
Well, Beck seems to have gotten at least some religion - just about the only person in the entire wide media who does. He's been all over Benron lately, for example. He links, imperfectly, Benron and Keynesian policies to "progressives", and he's a well-established anti-social-progressive sort. That you admit the Democrats support QE2 (and beyond) "predictably" sort of provides some evidence in support of his admittedly imperfect confligration though, no?
As to the unions: the members, especially in the private sector, are getting absolutely screwed, no doubt. Trust me, their leadership is doing just fine, especially in the public sector.
And politicians are hypocrites!?! Surely you jest?!?! (that's sarcasm, of course - they all suck eggs). The GOP hasn't been a truly capitalist "free-market" party in a long, long time, but there are hopeful signs at least some of them might be "getting it" through their thick, well-coiffed skulls. As the alternative to a political solution to our problems is, well, messy I'm keeping the optimism up best I can. It's hard, though. Really freaking hard, sometimes.
"The US is now a centrally-controlled economy, communist or fascist, take your pick -- with 535 useful idiots in Congress (plus Limbaugh, O'Reilly, Hannity, and Beck) to keep the unwashed NASCAR-watching, Fox News-junkie masses occupied."
This part of your argument is so full of contradictions that its unintelligible. Points 1,2&3, however, are spot on and 100% correct. I'd add this, though:
4) without ongoing, infinite QE, rates would back up to the point that,
a) interest on national debt would more than double, accelerating the death spiral
b) economic activity would cease and tax revenues would plummet, accelerating the death spiral
NO WAY OUT!!!
Turd,
Agreed. I'd like to add this thought. The Feds action was required because of a simple supply & demand issue. As the U.S. prepares to blow through the $14T mark on the debt and a 1.2T deficit, the world is simply going to stop buying Treasuries. The Fed has become the last resort buyer of our out of control spending. The world is realizing they are not going to get their money back and by the off chance they do, it won't be worth the paper it's printed on. We're about to go Supernova.
Well stated. That's the point I was trying to make in point 4(a) above.
This is why its not just QE2, its QEinfinity. The Fed IS the treasury market. Anyone who thinks or reports that the QE2 will only last through 6/11 is either delusional or deliberately misleading.
As long as King Dollar is out there in large quantities as a reserve currency, Chinook Ben is betting people will want a storage locker that earns interest. Only other option is for FRN holders to buy up other assets denominated in FRNs. Like oil. Like gold. (well, for now, anyway). The key is that it is the reserve currency that makes this completely uncharted territory. I don't see a collapse of the currency even in the context of QE 2.0. Debasement, yes, collapse, no.
Just bouncing and dragging along the bottom of the river. Don't get excited because the stone bounces up half an inch.
I do not believe these numbers due to the amount of inital claims last month. There is something very curious about this number. If it were +80k, sure I could see that, but this number is very odd. I would wager it is college grads taking lower jobs, or retail jobs as I have heard they already started hiring last month for the holiday season.
Any idea as to how much tax revenue we collect from those 61,000 birth/death adjustments?
This is all such a fucking joke.
Jobs up = dollar up = sell off??? Yay!!! Or am I not towing the line here with the permabull gov. spin (freemarket my arse)...
Amazing. Even as the $USD drops, manufacturing employment drops. Thats is a very bad sign.
All these "jobs" added were nothing more than temp X-mas jobs at retailers....which will be cut immediately after Black Friday when Black Friday turns out to be a HUGE DUD.
" Even as the $USD drops, manufacturing employment drops"
Good f-ing point. I wish I'd made it first ;)
We will gain jobs until everyone is unemployed.
+1 for you
In fact we should make that a zerohedge quote.
+1
++ reminds me of 'beatings will continue until moral improves.'
I have no confidence in these numbers for after all we have 'discovered' about regulatory capture and Washington/NY corruption, I have no assurance whatsoever these figures aren't rigged as we know now many other data points are. They could easily be total fabrication for all we know. The loss of confidence in the BLS and other such institutions is one of the huge stories over the past several years.
Size of civilian labor force decreased by 250,000.
Not in Labor Force increased by 462,000.
Can read the headline numbers all you want and cheer...that is the wrong direction for both numbers. Skews the percentage to make it appear things are getting better.
Tell this to Zandi and LIESman.
Oh wait, you can't. They're busy "pleasuring" each other right now.
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=171347
The 99ers will be pleased!
The problem with information put out by government, banks and their friends is that it has to be considered dishonest in the first instance as that has been there habit so far.
With corruption so systemic within regulatory, political and judicial spheres dishonesty and all data from them has to be seen as likewise corrupted.
We no longer can know what truth is unless we seek it indpendently.
We know these figures must be dishonest, as they have been consistently dishonest in the past.
Okay you take all the As in the phonebook and I'll start with the Zs.
- This is a noisy series, subject to revisions.
- There is a lot of manipulation for political reasons.
- Don't ponder the contradictions; why QE if there is declining unemployment for instance. Your head will explode.
- Use the rate over the past six months or so a baseline to compare unemployment for the NEXT six months or so.
Does anyone think the economy is getting better? Raise your hands!
good point, Bernanke had to have some inkling what these numbers would be like. Especially after his mea culpa on the Fed's role in employment. (will he own up to the dollar anytime soon?)
I note anecdotally the trend in municipal government to fire workers and hire them back as contractors. Lot tougher to claim you lost your job. CA just passed a law giving Munis the right to hire non-union contractors.
among the sample of people who are actually considered employees, the rate of employment is relatively steady. If you are not classified as an employee, you don't count. simple enough.
German Manufacturing Orders TumbleBERLIN—German manufacturing orders plunged 4% from the previous month in September, far worse than expected, as recovery in the euro-zone slows from its rapid pace earlier this year, the economy ministry said Wednesday.
The fall follows a strong increase in orders of 3.5% in monthly terms in August and offers further evidence that Germany's economic recovery has moderated significantly from the high growth rates posted last spring. "The upward dynamic for manufacturing orders has weakened, as expected after the boom in the first half of this year," the ministry said in a statement. "The trend—for large orders, as well—remains upward."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870435350457559607245475656...
They will be loving BB confetti dollar policy then.
Its such great bad news.
DOW/S&P500/FTSE daily and weekly overbought charts are now at an extreme level. Similar extreme conditions were detected before the correction started in mid 2007.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
They will keep the balloon expanding until one day BB stops printing. Then watch how fast a burst balloon disappears.
And he would stop because why? Run out of pixels? There is nothing to stop Ben. In fact, he is emboldened at this point, and it is the lack of adverse effects that will silence the hawks on the Fed (if they are even sincere, since I think they just manufacture the "controversy" to support the notion that the Fed has a braking system, whn in fact it has absolutley none.)
So the S&P is currently sitting at the same level it was in 2005 (when unemployment was 5%) - Does anyone have any good reasons why, despite almost 2x unemployment, we should be evaluating these two periods as equals?
China's growth? the iPad? I can't really wrap my mind around it.
I think it is staring right at you shouting, 2005 dollars verses 2010 dollars. 2x the difference.
http://www.inflationdata.com/inflation/Inflation_Calculators/Inflation_R...
This little thing is showing me 9.66% over the period.
nice !!
Non farm data paints a rosey picture of jobs being created. Household data shows labor force continuing to shrink (-254k), the number of employed down (-330k), unemployed up (+76k), and those not in labor force up (+462k). Heck of a recovery!
What were the prior months' revisions?
Which one would you like to hear?
Something for everybody.
Wow, so they are now classifying being a begger as a job, therefore being self-employed ? Interesting..............
Applications for jobless aid rise sharply
WASHINGTON - The number of people seeking jobless benefits jumped sharply last week, after two straight weeks of declines.
The increase undermines hopes that unemployment claims, after falling four times in the previous five weeks, were on a sustained downward trend. That would signal layoffs were slowing and hiring was picking up. Instead, claims remain stuck at an elevated level
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2010/11/04/20101104biz-joblessclaims1104.html
more jobless jobs! remember, it's a jobless recovery!!!
I know this has been stated before, the unemployment issue is a permanent structural change. Kyle Bass said it perfectly when he said we cannot import deflation without the bad.
Companies are sending overseas blue collar uneducated jobs to people who will do them for 1/8th the wage and 1/20th the Government regulation, do you blame them ?
Moving forward higher education is mandatory. A bachelor's degree is the same thing as a high school dropout as far as I am concerned. That's why I got my MBA immediately after undergrad. Higher education=more innovation.
Not really actually, but that's what employer's believe anyway on a resume, so you gotta play the game.
I know this has been stated before, the unemployment issue is a permanent structural change. Kyle Bass said it perfectly when he said we cannot import deflation without the bad.
Companies are sending overseas blue collar uneducated jobs to people who will do them for 1/8th the wage and 1/20th the Government regulation, do you blame them ?
Moving forward higher education is mandatory. A bachelor's degree is the same thing as a high school dropout as far as I am concerned. That's why I got my MBA immediately after undergrad. Higher education=more innovation.
Not really actually, but that's what employer's believe anyway on a resume, so you gotta play the game.
If our labor costs weren't too high we wouldn't be losing jobs hand over fist. This is the dilemma of the structural change. You can't have growth in employment when there's a glut of it in the market and all more reasonably priced than yours.
And there's no way to legislate for containment of the problem...but they'll try I'm sure. This is what will be hard to digest, that the (inflated) standard of living that we've had for so long has to crumble in order for people to work again, and if that doesn't happen we'll be right where we are a year from now.
Fine Print of the BLS Survey:
Upcoming Changes to Establishment Survey Data
Effective with the release of January 2011 data on February 4, 2011, the establishment survey will
begin estimating net business birth/death adjustment factors on a quarterly basis, replacing the current
practice of estimating the factors annually. This will allow the establishment survey to incorporate
information from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages into the birth/death adjustment
factors as soon as it becomes available and thereby improve the factors. Additional information
on this change is available at www.bls.gov/ces/ces_quarterly_birthdeath.pdf.
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