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Oh Canada! All Eyes Down South!
Derek
Abma of the Ottawa Citizen reports, Canadian
economy stalls in April:
Canada's economic
recovery, which appeared so strong earlier this year, seems to have
hit a rough patch.
The country's gross domestic product was
unchanged in April from the month before, Statistics Canada said
Wednesday. Economists were expecting 0.2 per cent growth in GDP for the
month.
That compared to a 0.6-per-cent GDP expansion in March.
It
marked the first time in eight months that the Canadian economy did
not expand and comes on the heels of 6.1- per-cent annualized growth in
the first quarter of this year, the strongest expansion in more than a
decade.
Statistics Canada said there
was a "large decline" in the retail sector in April, and lesser
contractions in manufacturing and utilities, which were offset by gains
in mining, wholesale, the public sector and construction.
Statistics
Canada said retail trade was down 1.7 per cent in April, as demand
dropped sharply for items such as automobiles and clothing.
Manufacturing
output fell 0.3 per cent in April, the federal agency said, the first
decline since August of last year. Non-durable goods, such as
pharmaceuticals and food, were cited as the main cause of the lagging
figures. Durable-goods manufacturing industries saw increased activity.
Oil-and-gas
extraction output was up 0.5 per cent in April and potash mining also
saw gains, though output in mining sectors such as gold, silver and
diamonds declined.
Economists, however,
were not sounding the alarm bell in the wake of the economy's lack of
growth in April.
"Overall, while this was a weak report, we
expect Canadian economic activity to bounce back in the coming months
as the combination of the strong momentum in labour-market activity and
supportive monetary and fiscal polices continue to provide a
favourable tailwind for Canadian consumer spending," said Millan
Mulraine, strategist with TD Securities.
Dawn Desjardins,
assistant chief economist with RBC Economics, said she expects GDP
growth to resume in May and June.
But that's not to say it's all
smooth sailing ahead.
Warren Jestin, chief economist of Scotia
Economics, said while "the dreaded double-dip" recession feared by many
is not likely to occur, growth in Canada and elsewhere is "at risk of
slowing materially" in 2011 as governments start to focus more on
cutting deficits than stimulating their economies.
Given
the new austerity measures governments agreed to at the recent G-20 in
Toronto, growth will slow, but it remains to be seen whether it is is
"at risk of slowing materially" in 2011.
Canada's labor market
remains solid. And if the US economic recovery continues, and more
importantly, if job creation finally takes hold, then despite the focus
on austerity, 2011 might not be such a terrible year.
On
Thursday, Matt Philips of the WSJ MarketBeat reported that US
manufacturing showed
growth, but slower:
Stocks are taking a
leg down after the June ISM data came in at 56.2 versus the 59 analysts
were expecting. Anything above 50 on the index indicates expansion, so
this means that the manufacturing sector was still growing in June,
but at a slower pace. The closely watched new orders index weakened,
falling to 58.5 in June versus 65.7 in May, but again that is still a number that signals expansion.
So here’s where we stand. It doesn’t look like a double dip
recession is imminent. But at the same
time, it may be that the fastest rates of growth during this recovery
are behind us. It seems that the binary risk on/risk off
reactions we’ve seen in the markets lately doesn’t quite know how to
handle the prospects of a slow growth recovery. But alas, it looks like
that’s what we’re facing.
I went over the ISM report, and it
still looks good. Any reading above 50 on the overall index and
sub-components signals expansionary activity. Of course, rates of
change are slowing, but that is normal given some of the components saw
extraordinary high readings as of the last few months. People get
excited over nothing without understanding how to properly read economic
indicators. Again, a reading over 50 signals expansion. Period.
Finally,
on Friday morning we await yet another US jobs report. Laurent Beslie
of the Christian Science Monitor reports, US
outlook for jobs darkens:
The signals for
US workers are not looking very positive.
On Friday,
the Department of Labor will release its estimate of how many jobs the
US economy created or lost last month. The data so far suggests that
the number isn't going to be very cheerful.
On Thursday, for example, the number of Americans filing
first-time claims for unemployment benefits jumped back up 13,000 to
472,000. The closely watched four-week average now stands at a
three-month high.
A day earlier, a private-sector survey of the
job market suggested that nonfarm private employment rose by only
13,000 in June after rising 57,000 the month before. That report, from
the ADP National Employment Report, was actually more bullish than the
official May figures from the Labor Department.
"We're clearly in a soft patch," says Stephen
Wood, chief market strategist in Russell Investments, a global
financial services firm based in a Tacoma, Wash. "The recovery is not
going to be this V-shaped snapback. It's going to be more like a
grind."
Friday's official unemployment numbers are expected to
look especially bad because the Census Bureau is beginning to let go of
the hundreds of thousands of temporary workers it had hired for its
census-taking operation.
But the private sector could still see a
jump of 100,000 or more jobs. By historical standards, that would be a
tepid rise this far into a recovery.
Most analysts expect hiring
to be weak, but I have a feeling tomorrow's non-farm payrolls
report will surprise to the upside. I've been burned a few times before
making these predictions on US job creation, but this report should
confirm a pick-up in job creation. Let's wait and see the details.
Finally, I
hope all Canadians enjoyed Canada Day. We are blessed to live in this great country of ours. Below, a small sample of Canada's treasures.
Enjoy.
»
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Ευχαριστ? Λεω.
The fact is, to Canada's credit, when the initial wave of bank merger mania hit inthe mid-90's, the government did not let the Canadian banks participate and it has led to a sounder banking system than we have here in the U.S.
Canada's semi-socialistic economy is based on slow-and-steady system as opposed to spectatcular rises and falls like we have here in the U.S. so that when things are flying here, Canada looks overly sleepy and when things are bad here in the U.S. Canada still looks just sleepy. They do OK, but their rigid labor markets, overwhelming taxes and stupid laws on all manner if issues keep them from achieving the true wealth that they can bring to ALL of their citizens.
Having been married to a Canadian (and I still don't hate the country) and had two brothres-in-law who were doctors, I assure you that the health care system is WAY overrated. One of them, an oncologist, when diagnosing cancer and asked what was the primary advice he would give his patients it was "go to the United States."
I lived in BC and the Yukon for 23 years. I miss Canada, even Canadians. Yeah, Dominion Day is a reminder of Canadian heritage, the bad bad British part. Trudeau didn't like dat.
I have a feeling tomorrow's non-farm payrolls report will surprise to the upside. I've been burned a few times before making these predictions on US job creation, but this report should confirm a pick-up in job creation.
-125,000 - and down we go where it ends nobody seems to know.
But just wait till next month.
Jobs, doing what exactly? There's massive overcapacity in everything from retail to manufacturing to FIRE, all dependent on cheap credit.
ETA: The much-beloved Household Survey, that most reliable indicator of economic trends, came in at -301K jobs.
I guess Leo is investing in Canadian solars now..
Can some Canadian recommend a couple of good online brokers?
I am in Europe and want to find a good Canadian broker accepting oveseas customers because its difficult to find brokers here offering TSX V shares etc and because this way my shares are registered as mine in the Canadian share depositoty......no?
Thank you guys.
I also use TD Waterhouse and would recommend them.
However, depending on where you live, they might not take your account. For example, a Canadian resident can't have a brokerage account in the US and vice versa. This kind of horseshit is spreading throughout OECD countries. If you run into this problem, try www.investorseurope.com, out of Gibraltar. They offer access to the TSX-V, both online and through a trading platform.
TD Waterhouse:
http://www.tdwaterhouse.ca/
Canadas recent stable economic/ employment numbers are, based around real estate related jobs (contract trades, brokers/sales, etc). When the current bubble bursts one of the most debtor friendly societies in the Western World will crash and burn just like Americas has.
Manufactuirng jobs in the Great White North continue to evaporate, and those being hired in most sectors are making much less (when inflation is added) than they were a decade ago.
The Whole country is one of part time teachers, gov't workers (federal,provincial,municpal) , police forces ,military personel, petty officials and last but not least bank employees including hundreds of thousands in call centers making just above minimum wage. Plus much of Eastern Canada young work force , has left home to go to Alberta to work in the oil fields. The economies of whole villages and towns in N.S, N.B, PEI, Quebec, Ontario and Newfoundland depend on oil prices remaing high. Good luck with that in the coming deflationary environment.
Canadas version of Fannie/Freddie is CMHC, went in to high gear a couple years back, and alot of these Gov't backed mortgages, will fail, in the coming months in years. A monkey on a street corner that filed a tax return can get a mortgae in Canada, traditional or otherwise.
As far as Canadas banks are concerned, they maybe strong compared with their Southern neighbors institues of of ill repute, but are soon going to announce hits from their heavy investments in Europe and China.
It must also be noted that Prime Minister Brian Harper and the conservatives smacked down 148 Billion in Q& E a year and half ago, and now that stimulus is fizzilling out, just like Uncle Sams spend spree has.
Things are getting uglier by the day. The Boy in the Bubble movie might best metaphorically describe the mentality of most brain washed/propogandized Canadians.
That mindset of this socialist debt ridden society, however, is soon, going to get a mild makeover, as the MSM begins blaming the coming problems on out side forces.
Thank you, islander...my thoughts exactly. Canada is just FULL of 'realtors', brokers, agents, 'representatives', bubble-sustained businesses, coffee bars, donut shops and overpaid, over-coddled, government employees.
On a world scale, no country can sustain it long with houses costing an average 5x income (9 in Vancouver, 8 in Toronto), higher personal debt levels than the U.S., a $53bn budget deficit, $4 cups of coffee, $1000+/year car insurance and $80-$100/month basic internet/phone packages. Canada is simply not competitive on a worldwide stage. Something has to give, and it will be JOBS and ASSET PRICES.
Here in Taiwan I don't even bother to insure my car. People sell stuff anywhere, small businesses are tax-free, the shinkansen bullet train to Taipei (150 km) is $22 one way and a decent lunch of vegetables, rice and meat US$1.80. A bottle of Argentine dry red wine is US$6. Why the hell I'm even considering buying a second house in you-know-where is a mystery.
Everything will evaporate like water in the hot sun - soon.
5x income is nothing short of the norm and almost cheap depending on what area. Not everyone makes 250k/yr to buy a shack with no mortage or on the flip not everyone with an average salary wants to live in a $50k shack.
Not sure how $4 cups of coffee is relevant. Yes we have Second Cup (Starbux?) but theres also Tim's (DunkinD). Car insurance is based on experience and claims. I will however agree how cellular service is pretty much an oligopoly and internet here is SHIT compared to Eu and even the USA.
But dont ever compare an Asian country to Canada. Hong Kong in terms of living standards on the main Island, maybe. Taiwan? HA. Good one.
You're right. No comparison. Living standards in Taiwan equal Canadian?
Hahaha...good one! You've been living in a box or something?
Taiwan BEATS Canada in terms of hi-technology availability, digital fiber penetration, cell phone pricing, low-cost rent and food, better shopping, better health insurance, access to the latest medical technology, more jobs, WAY lower taxes, low or zero personal debt levels. And just about everything else...
All i can give you is that Taiwan (in back of HK, JP an SG very close) is one of the higher standing Asian nations in terms of Q of living. I visited the Songshan district on an Asian trip last summer, and was impressed, but it was the same as in a dense urban population like youd find in Beijing or Guangzhou. China in places is very technologically advanced as well, although in 99% of the area if youre a white man walking around you are stared at like a ghost.
Youre again looking at a few very insignificant things to judge the quality of living there. Yes here a mcdonalds trio costs $7, whereas the exact same one is $5 in the US, and $3 in China. Oh, food is cheaper in Asia, BIG SUPRISE!!
Internet and cell phone use, ive already mentioned a few monopolistic firms run that stuff here, a lot easier to do when your land mass is 100x as big as a small islands. Low cost rent? Besides Taipei, you guys have shacks. Better shopping? Let me know how you quantify that, although i DO know Asians love to shop at LV and Gucci whereas us North Americans are fine with A&F. More jobs? Yes. Unemployment rate is....? Zero personal debt? Haha. Asian culture was never big on debt, but you guys live to work whereas we work to live (and then some).
A final statistic for you to shut your mouth
GDP/capital Taiwan = ~29.8K
Canada = 39K
Except Taiwan is a small island, just off the coast from a land occupied by over one billion chinese speaking people, who have designs upon the island itself, since it's within it's sphere of influence. Suggest you compare population per square foot of land space? Lots more 'room' here in the "Great White North!"
Leo.. You're a lucky guy - living in Montreal with its great restaurants and lively atmosphere coupled with the second most stylish women in North America (Quebec City is first). I spend summers in Canada - it's a great country and if the shit hits the fan, probably one of the best places to ride out the storm. There is some job growth but it seems to be all in the public sector and that's a long term drain on the economy especially when the public servant hits the retirement years but it does add another union member and guaranteed vote for the status quot. Yesterday, in Ontario, gasoline, electricity, Internet fees, haircuts (there's a long list) all got an 8% tax added but I found a 2-liter bottle of decent Italian red for $15- so all is well. All governments are basically gridlocked so no issue will ever be tackled - we're just along for the circus ride. To all of ZH - enjoy the summer in good health.
"Canada's labor market remains solid. And if the US economic recovery continues, and more importantly, if job creation finally takes hold, then despite the focus on austerity, 2011 might not be such a terrible year."
Honest to God, I have no idea why I bother bringing up your posts to read any more. I must have a masochistic streak in me or something.
Are you really THAT dumb, or are you doing this on purpose to get a reaction?
(Tyler please sent this guy back to NC before he turns this site into a comedy show)
Canada is a nice place to visit. But I wouldn't want to pay the top marginal tax rates plus the VAT there. I know, I know, "free" healthcare. And worth every penny.
Yeah, I miss paying 49.75% marginal tax rates, plus workers comp, Health Taxes,CPP, UIC etc I also miss the countless direct and indirect taxes. It is only when you leave Canada, that you finally get just how ridiculously high is our total tax burden.
As for the health care system, I remember waiting 2 years to see a psychologist, who then never bothered issuing a report. I obtained more prompt care in charming places like Cambodia and Zaire. Canadian health care is OK if you are suffering from a long term chronic illness. Otherwise, you will wait, and wait and wait and wait....
The taxes are killer but you said it yourself, healthcare is excellent.
Well, if you forgive the shortage of family doctors and 24hr emergency rooms which 24hr lineups (not everywhere, but QC is bad)
I don't think Canada is a bubble or is in a bubble. I expect the Cdn $ to rise above the US $ by the end of this year. People will yell that Canada is dependent on exports to the US but I think there has been some decoupling over the past few decades. Junk and trash me think if you I am wrong. My older bro works in commercial construction (hospitals, commercial, govt buildings) and has more work than he can deal with.
I moved back to Canada after losing my job (and green card processing) just under two years ago. Last month I was contacted by four recruiters (unsolicited because I am working and not actively looking ). One was from a large US company but the the three others were from Canada.
We have oil, gas, water and a fairly well educated workforce. And low corporate taxes and no health insurance issues. What we need is tech to move in and some research incentives.
Losing my job and having to leave NYC was wrenching but ...I see lots of opportunity here.
Great medium range, one, two generation thinking. Maybe even long enough that you won't outlive it, but your prosperity is your great grandchildrens' paucity of opportunity.
WHY? Because in selling off your natural resources as fast as others are willing to buy them, you are hollowing out your country. Hopefully you will learn from the US that you can't sell off the guts of your country (like the US did with its once abundant oil) and expect to not one day be beholden to debt to survive.
Yup, a viable tech industry is desperately needed in Canada, and the human resources are abundant. Unemployed scientists and engineers pretty much litter the streets in Canada. Seeing Nortel and the rest of Canada's tech sector collapse over the past decade has been heartbreaking to the engineering graduates of the past decade who are mostly unemployed now.
Unfortunately, no serious tech entrepreneur will start a business in Canada unless he or she can outsource most of the labour. It is simply too cost prohibitive.
Ever been to Kitchener-Waterloo?
CANADA
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1u_d2V_UvkQ
Unless you're a Trudeau loving/commie symp a**hole, it's
Dominion Day, bitches. See if Will Smith tries to change it from Independence Day to "America Day'. He won't last 24 hours.
I stand abased before thee.. it is Dominion Day!!! Trudeau was a commie fag, who enjoyed sucking Castro Dick.
Your vulgar comments are completely off. Trudea was a great Prime Minister, a true statesman, but he was too idealistic.
Maybe for you, my friend Leo. But for those of us in Alberta, we still remember his one finger salute, and his charming energy minister, Marc Lalonde. And Trudeau did enjoy the company of the dictator Castro far more that Nixon (hmmm, perhaps Trudeau did have redeeming qualities). Anyways, Trudeau is dead...Long live the new boss, same as the old boss..Happy Dominion Day, Leo.
Trudeau was an idiot and still is. Western Canada will never forgive the NEP. Ontario and Quebec can blow goats. How does it feel to be a have-not? Enjoy the HST.
Regards,
Alberta
A classic Trudeau moment during the FLQ crisis in October 1970:
Awww...Yes, vintage Trudeau. If nothing else, he had more charisma than what´s his name,,,oh Joe Clark. At least, we were facing a possible (if exaggerated) insurrection in Quebec. My parents still love him..
He was an arrogant prick Leo. You've lived in Montreal too loong. Try moving out west and you might get a different impression of the man.
Leo, why not post the videos of the Toronto Cops beating down G20 protesters? Or the video where the Chief of Police Blairs lies to the public about why he arrested innocent people and threw them into jail for 36 hours without the benefit of counsel? Happy Canada day, eh?
Been reading about that, seeing the videos.
While I hate to advocate violence, the protestors would've been justified in burning that motherfucker to the ground. In the US, unfortunately, we are the banksters little bitches, so we take it up the chute without a whimper.
russki, here you go (I prefer to focus on the good, not the ugly):
Thank you, I still love Canada even if I no longer reside there. Charter Rights were trampled in the name of security (sound familiar) and if we wish to maintain a semblance of democracy, we must exercise them even if our political leadership prefers us to cower in our homes. My deep respects to the citizens of Toronto who had the courage to protest despite the illegal and brutal tactics of the Toronto Police, led by Criminal in Chief, Lying Blair, who tried and failed to deny us rights of peaceful assembly. Sic Semper Tyrannis!
Leo, do you know if the Canadian gov't robs SIN like the US gov't robbed SSN?
Thanks.
Here is something to read (I have to warn you it is long). And another reason I'm glad to be in Canada is that we still have a semblance of democracy. What happened over the G20 will go to court and I will be surprised if there is not public inquiry:
http://www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=397205503638&id=511491565&ref=mf
There is also a facebook group with overr 25,000 members demanding an inquiry or formal investigation into police conduct. The inquiry would focus upon the actions of the chief of police and various politicos. No point wasting time analyzing actions of the average cop, they were simply following orders, kinda like the nazi guards who gassed jews as commanded by their Chief Officer Blair.
man, better watch out, if your 'online movement' gets too many signers-on, you'll be left in the breeze. screw facebook---->
http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-466703
Leo, the last time I heard such annoying banter was during a Lincoln-Douglas debate back in high school against a snob from Montclaire, NJ. Let me tell you what I regret never telling him. Shut the f'up. No one cares about the accuracy of your prognostications, they are baseless. Maybe you got unlucky in the past, maybe you'll get lucky tomorrow, or maybe you just have a penchant for annoying ZH readers. The point is that outside this conversation, and independent of your guesses, central planning does not work.
But one other blogger said Leo was, I believe, an absolutely unreformed and unrepentent Keynesian...
Leo, you either want hiring to increase and Canada's labour market to "remain strong"...everyone doing ersatz 'jobs' made possible only by cheap money and businesses that would fall over with the slightest puff of competition or higher rates...
...or you want a sustainable economy built on sound money, without central banking and with market-set (likely HIGH) interest rates, so that the jobs and businesses remaining are those that can stand on their own two feet in any financial gale and are funded through SAVINGS.
Which is it?
I WANT it all to come crashing down. Lots of people haven't EARNED houses, or salaries or jobs. Lots of people have saved NOTHING in Canada and have been supported by cheap credit too long. If the cold winds of international competition were allowed to blow freely across Canada, half the middle management/government/FIRE economy office-bound 'workers' in the country would be layed off. Hell, half the Maritimes is a government/army employment program! And who this side of God's Little Acre would want to start a business in Canada NOW??
Canada itself is a BUBBLE.
The only problem is, our leadership is serving the same corporate interests as those shills in Washington.
They are quietly building up Canada's own Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, believe it or not, known as the CMHC.
I guess that is how they will make sure Canada's currency doesn't appreciate TOO much relative to the USD.
Have to admit Canada is a beautiful place... Especially when I was 19 and all I had to do was drive across the Ambassador bridge or the tunnel to get shitfaced and laid.
Or visit the local strip bars to check out the beaver....