As Zero Hedge advised in early January when the severity of the Maghreb revolution was made all too clear to anyone not willing to stick their head in the CNBC sand, oil could well be the buy of a lifetime ahead of a downward spiral of unprecedented geopolitical proportions. Sure enough, today alone, WTI (April) has surged from $90 yesterday to over $98 in electronic trading (see below). Either this is some computer gone haywire in the closed session, or when America wakes up tomorrow we may be on the verge of another flash crash. As for Brent, it passed $108.50. As a reminder, and people forget this all too readily, each dollar jump in crude wipes out $100 billion in US GDP. That means that at face value, today's move in the commodity complex, may have taken out as much as 5% of annualized GDP when fully processed through the economy!
WTI (per netdania):
And some crude observations from an otherwise calm Reuters:
Brent crude oil U.S. oil prices led the rally The "The market is on edge "If you've The Brent The March U.S. crude oil Overall The Brent's after-hours rally forced the spread back out to $12.40 a barrel. LIBYA UNSETTLES In On Sunday, Ninety "Libya
prices hit $108 a barrel for the first time since 2008 on Monday on
fears that spiraling violence in Libya could lead to wider supply
disruptions from the OPEC member.
to jump by more than $5, the most in over two years, as traders also
rushed to cover short positions in the key Brent/WTI spread, which had
blown out to a record $16 a barrel. The April spread narrowed to $10
during the day, but widened to over $12 in after-hours trade.
focus was on deadly clashes in Libya, where one oil firm was shutting
down some 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) of production and others
evacuated staff. The leader of the Al-Zuwayya tribe threatened oil
exports to the West would be cut off unless authorities stopped
about the potential for Middle East and North Africa supply
disruptions," said Mike Wittner, head of commodities research, Americas,
at Societe Generale.
got reports that actual disruptions are starting to occur, it's going to
have a supportive impact. A lot of it is high-quality crude and that is
important as well."
increasingly violent protests that appeared to put Muammar Gaddafi's
four decades of rule in jeopardy were the realization of weeks of
mounting concerns that Egypt-inspired unrest would seep into nearby oil producers.
oil futures, which have climbed more than $10 this year largely due to
the increasing geopolitical risk premium, jumped $3.22 a barrel, or 3.2
percent, to settle at $105.74 a barrel. They jumped another $2 to trade
as high as $108 in after-hours dealing, the highest since September 4,
contract, which expires on Tuesday, surged $5.22 a barrel to trade at
$91.42 a barrel in late-afternoon activity -- the highest in two weeks.
trading volume was less than one-third the 30-day average due to the
U.S. Presidents Day holiday, and the U.S. market won't issue an official
settlement until Tuesday.
more-active April contract jumped as much as $5.75 to a high of $95.47 a
barrel, at one point narrowing the Brent/WTI contract by nearly $3 to
$10 a barrel as traders covered short positions built up as the spread
ballooned from about $3 in January to a low of $16 last week.
Libya, scores were killed in anti-government protests as one of the
region's bloodiest revolts hit Tripoli for the first time, while army
units defected to the opposition and Gaddafi's son vowed to fight to the
last man standing.
Shaikh Faraj al Zuway, the leader of the Al-Zuwayya tribe in eastern
Libya, told Al Jazeera: "We will stop oil exports to Western countries
within 24 hours" should the violence not stop.
percent of Libyan oil exports come from the eastern region of
Cyrenaica, epicenter of the revolt, and unrest there could pose a graver
threat to oil supplies than in other nations if separatists target
infrastructure and look for a bigger slice of revenues, analysts say.
is a significant producer and exporter of good quality crude oil, and
threats by the tribal leader to stop production are worrisome," said
Christophe Barret, an oil analyst at Credit Agricole Corporate and
Brent crude oil
U.S. oil prices led the rally
"The market is on edge
The March U.S. crude oil
Brent's after-hours rally forced the spread back out to $12.40 a barrel.