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Oil Spill: Here's The Inside Scoop
The Gulf oil spill is much worse than originally believed.
As the Christian Science Monitor writes:
It's now likely that the actual amount of the oil spill dwarfs the Coast Guard's figure of 5,000 barrels, or 210,000 gallons, a day.
Independent scientists estimate that the renegade wellhead at the bottom of the Gulf could be spewing up to 25,000 barrels a day. If chokeholds on the riser pipe break down further, up to 50,000 barrels a day could be released, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration memo obtained by the Mobile, Ala., Press-Register.
CNN quotes the lead government official responding to the spill - the commandant of the Coast Guard, Admiral Thad Allen - as stating:
If we lost a total well head, it could be 100,000 barrels or more a day.
Indeed, an environmental document filed by the company running the oil drilling rig - BP - estimates the maximum as 162,000 barrels a day:
In an exploration plan and environmental impact analysis filed with the federal government in February 2009, BP said it had the capability to handle a “worst-case scenario” at the Deepwater Horizon site, which the document described as a leak of 162,000 barrels per day from an uncontrolled blowout — 6.8 million gallons each day.
Best-Case Scenario
BP is trying to perform a difficult task of capping the leak by using robotic submarines to trigger a "blowout preventer" 5,000 feet below the surface of the ocean. Here's a photo of the robot trying to activate the switch on April 22nd:
(courtesy of the US Coast Guard)
If successful, the leak could be stopped any day. Everyone is rooting for the engineers, so that they may successfully cap the leak.
Already, however, the spill is worse than the Exxon Valdez, and will cause enormous and very costly destruction to the shrimping, fishing and tourism industries along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Florida. It will be years before good estimates on the number of dead fish, turtles, birds and other animals can be made.
The Backup Plan
If the blowout preventer can't be triggered, the backup plan is to drill another well to relieve pressure from the leaking well.
Here's a drawing prepared by BP showing the plan (the drilling rig on the left will take months to drill down and relieve pressure from the leaking rig):
Here's a graphic from the Times-Picayune showing the same thing (and accurately showing that there are currently 3 leaking oil plumes):
BP will also attempt to drop concrete and metal "cages" over the leak sites, to try to buy time by collecting oil in the cages, and then draining oil away in a safer manner. In addition, BP is using chemical disperents to try to break up the oil plumes as they arise.
Worst-Case Scenario
As the Associated Press notes:
Experts warned that an uncontrolled gusher could create a nightmare scenario if the Gulf Stream carries it toward the Atlantic.
This would, in fact, be very bad, as it would carry oil far up the Eastern seaboard.
Specifically, as the red arrows at the left of the following drawing show, the Gulf Stream runs from Florida up the Eastern Coast of the United States:
[Click here for full image.]
But how could the oil get all the way from Louisiana to Florida, where the Gulf Stream flows?
As Discovery explains:
Many ocean scientists are now raising concerns that a powerful current could spread the still-bubbling slick from the Florida Keys all the way to Cape Hatteras off North Carolina.
These oceanographers are carefully watching the Gulf Loop Current, a clockwise swirl of warm water that sets up in the Gulf of Mexico each spring and summer. If the spill meets the loop -- the disaster becomes a runaway.
"It could make it from Louisiana all the way to Miami in a week, maybe less." said Eric Chassignet, director of the Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies at Florida State University. "It is pretty fast."
Right now, some computer models show the spill 30 to 50 miles north of the loop current. If the onshore winds turn around and push the oil further south: "That would be a nightmare," said Yonggang Liu, research associate at the University of South Florida who models the current. "Hopefully we are lucky, but who knows. The winds are changing and difficult to predict."
Imagine the loop current as an ocean-going highway, transporting tiny plankton, fish and other marine life along a watery conveyor belt. Sometimes it even picks up a slug of freshwater from the Mississippi River -- sending it on a wandering journey up to North Carolina.
The Gulf Loop Current acts like a jet of warm water that squirts in from the Caribbean basin and sloshes around the Gulf of Mexico before being squeezed out the Florida Strait, where it joins the larger and more powerful Gulf Stream current.
***
Oceanographer George Maul worries that the current could push the oil slick right through the Florida Keys and its 6,000 coral reefs.
"I looked at some recent satellite imagery and it looks like some of the oil may be shifted to the south," said Maul, a professor at Florida Institute of Technology in Melbourne, Fla. "If it gets entrained in the loop, it could spread throughout much of the Atlantic."
In fact, new animation from a consortium of Florida institutions and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, predicts a slight southward shift in the oil over the next few days.
A graphic from the Discovery article shows what the Gulf loop current looks like:
The Gulf Loop Current enters from the Caribbean basin,
moves around the Gulf of Mexico and
exits out the Florida Strait, where it joins
the more powerful Gulf Stream current.
Naval Oceanographic Office
According to ROFFS, the oil spill is getting close to the loop current:
In a worst-case scenario - if the oil leak continued for a very long period of time - the oil could conceivably be carried from the Gulf Stream into world-wide ocean currents (see drawing above).
I do not believe this will happen. Even with the staggering quantity of oil being released, I don't think it's enough to make its way into other ocean currents. I think that either engineers will figure out how to cap the leak, or the oil deposits will simply run out. It might get into the Gulf loop current, and some might get into the Gulf Stream. But I don't believe the apocalyptic scenarios where oil is carried world-wide by teh Gulf Stream or other ocean currents.
Changing the Climate
There is an even more dramatic - but even less likely - scenario.
Specifically, global warming activists have warned for years that warming could cause the "great conveyor belt" of warm ocean water to shut down. They say that such a shut down could - in turn - cause the climate to abruptly change, and a new ice age to begin. (This essay neither tries to endorse or refute global warming or global cooling in general: I am focusing solely on the oil spill.)
The drawing above shows the worldwide "great conveyer belt" of ocean currents, which are largely driven by the interaction of normal ocean water with colder and saltier ocean currents.
Conceivably - if the oil spill continued for years - the greater thickness or "viscosity" of the oil in comparison to ocean water, or the different ability of oil and seawater to hold warmth (called "specific heat"), could interfere with the normal temperature and salinity processes which drive the ocean currents, and thus shut down the ocean currents and change the world's climate.
However, while this is an interesting theory (and could make for a good novel or movie), it simply will not happen.
Why not?
Because there simply is not enough oil in the leaking oil pocket to interfere with global ocean currents. And even if this turns out to be a much bigger oil pocket than geologists predict, some smart engineer will figure out how to cap the leak well before any doomsday scenario could possibly happen.
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Black gold? More like Black Death.
This has the potential of doing more damage than any rogue financial institution.
15 oor so years of fishing inside and outside the sunshine skyway in Tampa bay. Even before it was knocked down. Simple red tide wreaked havok on the fishing in summer. If the oil gets up the bay and killes the mangroves, it will be like oil lamp if it gets lit up. All boats will be ruined as oil will eat into the gel coat. I don't want to think about more.
I am a Floridian. Words fail. Coffee pot bayou, grew up there.
Thorn must be really pissed by now. And when he gets pissed...
I didn't even know there was such a thing like a "Floridian"... does that mean your about 100 years old?
I am a Floridian. 54.
Early retirement! COOL POP'S!
1-5000/bd will do just fine to wreck the economies of the Gulf littoral. You don't need doomsday scenarios or lunatic fringe theories.
The timing of this is bad enough for man and beast coming as it does in the wildlife spawning/mating season and the human beach/vacation season. To me the greatest threat is the fouling of Florida's beaches on the Gulf coast down to the Keys and around to where the Gulfstream flows just off Miami. This is a state where unemployment is already at 12-13% and 1 in 5 mortgaged homes 90 days or more delinquent. Foul those beaches and the 2010/11 tourist season is kaput and unemployment goes to Spanish levels and the residential and commercial real estate industry simply collapse. That is a doomsday scenario enough for me and it is hard to see how we avoid it.
Right you are. Venice, Buras, and that whole area was newly rebuilt. You could finally rent a place for the weekend again. For so long, we'd have to get up at 2:00am to get to Venice Marina for 6am. Who's going to rent that now? Florida would be far worse in terms of CRE, but we just kissed 1/3 of our oysters good bye. Same deal with shrimp.
FWIW, my sources say that a dome solution will be attempted in the next day, two Max.
That containment dome issue just angers me so.
Why, before they ever allowed deepwater drilling was there not a test of this device in and if they work not have them built and ready to be deployed for just this sort of emergency. Hindsight is always 20/20 but you would think insurers if not the oil companies themselves would have pondered the costs and risks of losing control of a well in deep water.
I said earlier today if Florida gets coated BP , Transocean, Halliburton etc. are toast. So are some insurance companies. While I feel for South Louisiana and will miss my shrimp the population there is small and BP will be able to compensate them for their financial loss. Problem is, how in the hell do you compensate over 20 million people in Florida?
Foodstamps?
I realize this situation is desperate, but the dome solution sounds silly. High pressure caused all this. So, how is some concrete dome going to stop it? Won't the pressure just build in other places like the seas floor and cause a blow out there?
From what has been said, the oil is not coming out of the well head but from three ruptures in the collapsed piping on the sea floor. Putting a dome (actually big square concrete boxes) over the leaks with piping up to the surface will allow the bulk of the oil to be collected in the structure and pumped up to the surface to be collected and taken away. This has been done apparently in shallow water but never at this depth. It had better work or there is nothing to be done until a relief well can be drilled.
That is accurate. http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/article213922.ece
I fish this area regularly. The worst case scenario for Louisiana is if/when the oil reaches the barataria. Look to the west of the Delta and go straight up to the east of grand isle and fourchon. There's no stopping it then. It will flow in and out of every bit of marshland we have. This was a vicious attack on my culture and something must be done. It's just impossible to explain how much this hurts. What the hell have we done?
Agreed.
No question its bad. Things have been ramping up down in LA for the last few days. BP has spent considerable effort to maintain goodwill in the area. Which from what I've seen is the only reason those shrimping boats are even out there.
From what I've been told, these wells will not "peter out."
Things will get much worse it seems.
The question I have is this, what is the environmental affect of the clean up? The amount of vessels in the water, with all their gear, are burning tons of fuel. Then you factor in all the planes dropping dispersant into the ocean (and make no mistake, the amount is staggering in just a few days), then the burning of the oil.
I've had it explained to me multiple times from the crews. The dispersant does literally just that. So it doesn't actually get rid of it. The remainer still needs to be skimmed. And burning it just sends it into the air. Vessels, tugs, barges, are all burning thousands of gallons of fuel.
Now I realize that it isn't the same as whats being spilled into the ocean. But it just seems like it would be the equivalent of mopping your floor before you address a broken water main.
This has the potential to go on for months.
I don't understand the dispursants. Will that just sink the oil? I never liked catching those damn hard heads anyway, HA! I'm seriously worried that Louisiana oysters will be a thing of the past.
Another thing, much of this oil is the texture of asphalt.
Call dispersent an "oil herder " takes the film spread out over miles , congeals it into a thicker film , easier ( ha!) to control and clean up . Who makes the dispersent ? I think Shell Oil is one . Stock up on the stock .
What about using an underwater tactical nuke, low yield, to collapse the ground??? could it be any worse of a choice?
Shitty option 1 vs shitty option 2
Did anyone see the Taliban claim on the NY "event"?
Could it be that, given they didnt refer to the NY event itself, and frakly would have to be insane to claim the NY fiasco, that they really meant to claim this??
And the NY event is a sideshow by people to cause a distraction and redirect the claim, knowing the claim was out there/coming...
I realize this Taliban Group claims all kinds of crap and are normally full of it, but still it would be good for them to claim this, since I know many people have doubts...
The Iranian Army has issued a press release that denies one of their submarines was involved as the Iranian Army does not operate submarines and even if they did operate submarines they would all be in position off Haifa not lolly gagging around in the the Gulf of Mexico. In any case all 6 Iranian Army submarine officers are off on leave and taking in the shows in Times Square.
well will peter out in a few more days.
there's no getting around the fact that our economy needs that deep oil to survive.
but these deep water off shore technologies are NOT the solution. the pipes aren't strong enough to contain intense heats and pressures
"well will peter out in a few more days."
Based upon the numbers I've seen of proven reserves for this deposit and the pressure the deposit is under, this thing could run uncontrolled for months and only drop 1000 or 2000 PSI. This isn't a bottle of soda that has been shaken. We are talking about massive pressure of well over 20,000 PSI.
This well and others like it are at the very limit of drilling technology. They would not have considered drilling this deep just 10 years ago. The equipment is not designed to take the pressure they found with much margin of error.
Ilargi said...the automatic earth
As for the oil spill, I'm pretty sure it's been downplayed enormously so far. 10 times Exxon Valdez wouldn't surprise me one bit. It will take 3 months to drill a relief well, is what Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar, White House spokesperson, said today on Sunday Talk Show TV.
And I was thinking: how the heck is it possible that you got time to do talk shows, mate?
This is an open gusher. Exxon Valdez leaked 10.8 million gallons This thing leaks perhaps as much as 2 million gallons per day. And if the pressure down between 500 and 18.000 feet gets worse, it could start leaking 4 times as much, or roughly an Exxon Valdez every 2.5 days. For 3 months on end. I have an eery feeling about it.
if Ilargi has an eery feeling about it, we all should be having eery feelings right now.
darn fucking oil, ruining the world, oceans and animals†
velobabe, thanks for the info.
you know that point when you're outside at night and you just can't take the mosquitoes pricking you anymore and you start going batty slapping yourself trying to get them away from you?
methinks pachamama is at that point with her pesky human children.
Time to skip past sacrificing the sacred leaf with the aborted llama fetus and go for the big white fluffy adults then?
start with this one?
http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2009/04/larry_summers_ca...
his brain may fill the hole
his ego might....his brain is puny
tooshay madame mutt
If barry had waited another week he could have gotten more support from the anti human league. Waiting over a week was not enough time. Only humans died the first week. You got to have dead waterfowl to prove your point. Wonder if Rahm thinks this crisis should go to waste?
N. Korea is denying rumors that an attack submarine belonging to its navy was spotted in international waters shortly after the explosion.
The S. Korean government has also denied claims that such an attack took place, and refuses to comment further.
They have, however, already internally launched an investigation that has concluded that such an event did transpire, and that N. Korea must be nuked at all costs.
Wouldn't you be saying the same thing if you where guilty?
HANG THEM! NUKE'M!!
zander said...
from automatic earth blog, thought worth passing on these posts.
I just read this from another blog.
It may be crank, I dunno, thought I'd share it anyway.
"A reader who is an engineer of considerable experience says watch this one evolve carefully because it is destined to continue to grow and he shares this long (but worthy explanation why:
"Heard your mention of the oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico this morning, and you (and most everyone else except maybe George Noory) are totally missing the boat on how big and bad of a disaster this is.
First fact, the original estimate was about 5,000 gallons of oil a day spilling into the ocean. Now they're saying 200,000 gallons a day. That's over a million gallons of crude oil a week!
I'm engineer with 25 years of experience. I've worked on some big projects with big machines. Maybe that's why this mess is so clear to me.
First, the BP platform was drilling for what they call deep oil. They go out where the ocean is about 5,000 feet deep and drill another 30,000 feet into the crust of the earth. This it right on the edge of what human technology can do. Well, this time they hit a pocket of oil at such high pressure that it burst all of their safety valves all the way up to the drilling rig and then caused the rig to explode and sink. Take a moment to grasp the import of that. The pressure behind this oil is so high that it destroyed the maximum effort of human science to contain it.
When the rig sank it flipped over and landed on top of the drill hole some 5,000 feet under the ocean.
Now they've got a hole in the ocean floor, 5,000 feet down with a wrecked oil drilling rig sitting on top of is spewing 200,000 barrels of oil a day into the ocean. Take a moment and consider that, will you!
First they have to get the oil rig off the hole to get at it in order to try to cap it. Do you know the level of effort it will take to move that wrecked oil rig, sitting under 5,000 feet of water? That operation alone would take years and hundreds of millions to accomplish. Then, how do you cap that hole in the muddy ocean floor? There just is no way. No way.
The only piece of human technology that might address this is a nuclear bomb. I'm not kidding. If they put a nuke down there in the right spot it might seal up the hole. Nothing short of that will work.
If we can't cap that hole that oil is going to destroy the oceans of the world. It only takes one quart of motor oil to make 250,000 gallons of ocean water toxic to wildlife. Are you starting to get the magnitude of this?
We're so used to our politicians creating false crises to forward their criminal agendas that we aren't recognizing that we're staring straight into possibly the greatest disaster mankind will ever see. Imagine what happens if that oil keeps flowing until it destroys all life in the oceans of this planet. Who knows how big of a reservoir of oil is down there.
Not to mention that the oceans are critical to maintaining the proper oxygen level in the atmosphere for human life.
We're humped. Unless God steps in and fixes this. No human can. You can be sure of that."
Z
thanks GW for posting something on ZH.
So there's this myth, that what destroyed Atlantis was that they drilled into the earth for some sort of geothermal energy, got way in over their heads, and their drilling ended up destabilizing things so much that their entire continent, and their high technology, sank into the ocean. Now they are myth.
interesting also that many of studies surrounding atlantis (including some of the work on the plato myth) argue that it may have been located in the caribbean.
Let us do the timewarp!
Go easy on the coffee ;)
Experienced "engineer"? LOL -- before posting bilge like this maybe people should first learn about blowouts. This is an ugly situation, yes, but it wasn't caused by "pressure behind this oil is so high that it destroyed the maximum effort of human science to contain it.", that is utter nonsense. The blowout occured because somebody on the rig screwed up and allowed gas to displace the fluids in the pipe. As it rises to the surface, the gas expands and further reduces the pressure allowing the well to start flowing. It's a runaway situation that can only be stopped at the well head. To make matters worse, the gas somehow ignited, wrecked the rig and controls, and that is where we're at now.
If BP had installed proper backup systems down below (big $$$$), none of this would have happened. Beyond Petroleum...to uninsurable.
The well wasn't at 30,000 feet, it was 18,000 feet. The pressure wasn't too high, it was well within the normal operating pressures. The well didn't blow out because the oil pressure was too high. The well started flowing oil and natural gas when they were cementing the production casing in. This is not the cause of the fire. There are exhaust manifolds that can handle this. My guess is there was a leak in the piping somewhere between the wellhead on the ocean floor and the rig floor. That's my guess, a simple leak in a pipe. The natural gas was ignited and the whole rig went up in flames. The worst case is the well will be capped in a couple months when they drill the relief well. I believe it certainly can flow at 160,000 BOPD. The fact that it isn't shows that the blowout preventers are mostly closed.
If I were a BP or Transocean stockholder, the pucker factor would be very high. BP will be sued by everyone from Key West to Brownsville. And what happens to Transocean if BP says "This was caused by a leak in a pipe that you said was inspected and tested?" I'm just guessing.
CEO of the Sofa
Petroleum Engineer
you got credibility mr., been around these parts as long as all the locals.
scary, huh?
RIG is pfucked. or as MSM quotes: scrutiny
we are so fucked.
bye bye†
Um, I'm thinking the chances of a rig "flipping over" and sinking 5000 ft to the ocean floor and covering a 16" hole are pretty slim to say the least. I vote crack pot.
When I saw "George Noory" my crackpot meter pegged and the rest of the post was mere entertainment.
You are correct sir.
I highly recommend a visit to http://theoildrum.com for intelligent discussion by experts in this field concerning what probably happened, where we are now, what we should do next.
interesting you mention the oil drum. cause Ilargi and Stoneleigh both were associated with the oil drum, left and started the automatic earth, TAE. the posts that i reposted above are from TAE. very insightful on your part, i believe.
..speaking of in sight full mam, your left titty is in my sight full. dang hell how you get one titty bigger than the other? dang hell
You must be pretty old. Get some glasses. They are perfect titties and you can't touch em'. Weep at their perfection and your unworthiness.
He has no concept of shadow, depth and perspective. If it doesn't poke him in his eye, he can't see it.
And the process of Shallow Hal continues apace for some while others simply enjoy life... and what living has to offer