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Oil Spill: Here's The Inside Scoop
The Gulf oil spill is much worse than originally believed.
As the Christian Science Monitor writes:
It's now likely that the actual amount of the oil spill dwarfs the Coast Guard's figure of 5,000 barrels, or 210,000 gallons, a day.
Independent scientists estimate that the renegade wellhead at the bottom of the Gulf could be spewing up to 25,000 barrels a day. If chokeholds on the riser pipe break down further, up to 50,000 barrels a day could be released, according to a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration memo obtained by the Mobile, Ala., Press-Register.
CNN quotes the lead government official responding to the spill - the commandant of the Coast Guard, Admiral Thad Allen - as stating:
If we lost a total well head, it could be 100,000 barrels or more a day.
Indeed, an environmental document filed by the company running the oil drilling rig - BP - estimates the maximum as 162,000 barrels a day:
In an exploration plan and environmental impact analysis filed with the federal government in February 2009, BP said it had the capability to handle a “worst-case scenario” at the Deepwater Horizon site, which the document described as a leak of 162,000 barrels per day from an uncontrolled blowout — 6.8 million gallons each day.
Best-Case Scenario
BP is trying to perform a difficult task of capping the leak by using robotic submarines to trigger a "blowout preventer" 5,000 feet below the surface of the ocean. Here's a photo of the robot trying to activate the switch on April 22nd:
(courtesy of the US Coast Guard)
If successful, the leak could be stopped any day. Everyone is rooting for the engineers, so that they may successfully cap the leak.
Already, however, the spill is worse than the Exxon Valdez, and will cause enormous and very costly destruction to the shrimping, fishing and tourism industries along the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Florida. It will be years before good estimates on the number of dead fish, turtles, birds and other animals can be made.
The Backup Plan
If the blowout preventer can't be triggered, the backup plan is to drill another well to relieve pressure from the leaking well.
Here's a drawing prepared by BP showing the plan (the drilling rig on the left will take months to drill down and relieve pressure from the leaking rig):
Here's a graphic from the Times-Picayune showing the same thing (and accurately showing that there are currently 3 leaking oil plumes):
BP will also attempt to drop concrete and metal "cages" over the leak sites, to try to buy time by collecting oil in the cages, and then draining oil away in a safer manner. In addition, BP is using chemical disperents to try to break up the oil plumes as they arise.
Worst-Case Scenario
As the Associated Press notes:
Experts warned that an uncontrolled gusher could create a nightmare scenario if the Gulf Stream carries it toward the Atlantic.
This would, in fact, be very bad, as it would carry oil far up the Eastern seaboard.
Specifically, as the red arrows at the left of the following drawing show, the Gulf Stream runs from Florida up the Eastern Coast of the United States:
[Click here for full image.]
But how could the oil get all the way from Louisiana to Florida, where the Gulf Stream flows?
As Discovery explains:
Many ocean scientists are now raising concerns that a powerful current could spread the still-bubbling slick from the Florida Keys all the way to Cape Hatteras off North Carolina.
These oceanographers are carefully watching the Gulf Loop Current, a clockwise swirl of warm water that sets up in the Gulf of Mexico each spring and summer. If the spill meets the loop -- the disaster becomes a runaway.
"It could make it from Louisiana all the way to Miami in a week, maybe less." said Eric Chassignet, director of the Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies at Florida State University. "It is pretty fast."
Right now, some computer models show the spill 30 to 50 miles north of the loop current. If the onshore winds turn around and push the oil further south: "That would be a nightmare," said Yonggang Liu, research associate at the University of South Florida who models the current. "Hopefully we are lucky, but who knows. The winds are changing and difficult to predict."
Imagine the loop current as an ocean-going highway, transporting tiny plankton, fish and other marine life along a watery conveyor belt. Sometimes it even picks up a slug of freshwater from the Mississippi River -- sending it on a wandering journey up to North Carolina.
The Gulf Loop Current acts like a jet of warm water that squirts in from the Caribbean basin and sloshes around the Gulf of Mexico before being squeezed out the Florida Strait, where it joins the larger and more powerful Gulf Stream current.
***
Oceanographer George Maul worries that the current could push the oil slick right through the Florida Keys and its 6,000 coral reefs.
"I looked at some recent satellite imagery and it looks like some of the oil may be shifted to the south," said Maul, a professor at Florida Institute of Technology in Melbourne, Fla. "If it gets entrained in the loop, it could spread throughout much of the Atlantic."
In fact, new animation from a consortium of Florida institutions and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, predicts a slight southward shift in the oil over the next few days.
A graphic from the Discovery article shows what the Gulf loop current looks like:
The Gulf Loop Current enters from the Caribbean basin,
moves around the Gulf of Mexico and
exits out the Florida Strait, where it joins
the more powerful Gulf Stream current.
Naval Oceanographic Office
According to ROFFS, the oil spill is getting close to the loop current:
In a worst-case scenario - if the oil leak continued for a very long period of time - the oil could conceivably be carried from the Gulf Stream into world-wide ocean currents (see drawing above).
I do not believe this will happen. Even with the staggering quantity of oil being released, I don't think it's enough to make its way into other ocean currents. I think that either engineers will figure out how to cap the leak, or the oil deposits will simply run out. It might get into the Gulf loop current, and some might get into the Gulf Stream. But I don't believe the apocalyptic scenarios where oil is carried world-wide by teh Gulf Stream or other ocean currents.
Changing the Climate
There is an even more dramatic - but even less likely - scenario.
Specifically, global warming activists have warned for years that warming could cause the "great conveyor belt" of warm ocean water to shut down. They say that such a shut down could - in turn - cause the climate to abruptly change, and a new ice age to begin. (This essay neither tries to endorse or refute global warming or global cooling in general: I am focusing solely on the oil spill.)
The drawing above shows the worldwide "great conveyer belt" of ocean currents, which are largely driven by the interaction of normal ocean water with colder and saltier ocean currents.
Conceivably - if the oil spill continued for years - the greater thickness or "viscosity" of the oil in comparison to ocean water, or the different ability of oil and seawater to hold warmth (called "specific heat"), could interfere with the normal temperature and salinity processes which drive the ocean currents, and thus shut down the ocean currents and change the world's climate.
However, while this is an interesting theory (and could make for a good novel or movie), it simply will not happen.
Why not?
Because there simply is not enough oil in the leaking oil pocket to interfere with global ocean currents. And even if this turns out to be a much bigger oil pocket than geologists predict, some smart engineer will figure out how to cap the leak well before any doomsday scenario could possibly happen.
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He suffers from blogblurting
"We're so used to our politicians creating false crises to forward their criminal agendas that we aren't recognizing that we're staring straight into possibly the greatest disaster mankind will ever see. "
Oh, I don't know. The last ice age was pretty bad. And the Black Death. And Tambora blowing up. The flu of 1918. Oh, and Mao and Stalin. I think we can still do better though.
A nuke? Didn't I see this movie somewhere before?
Oh, yeah...Armageddon (only in our case substitute out-of-control oil well for out-of-control giant-ass meteor).
and thanks to velo for sharing this.
all i can say is holy shit.
gotta break out the book of revelations again.
Which of the The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse do we file leaking underwater oil wells under? Lets see, conquest, war, famine, and death? Hmmm...
Seems like the economics of oil involve all four of said horsemen. Assuming you take the preterist viewpoint of Revelations, along with the viewpoint that history tends to repeat itself, this may turn out to be a significant or possibly even defining event in the timeline towards a major socioeconomic shift.
i admit i had to look that one up. but i was willing to invest the time for one so lovely as ...
If you want your Bible reference, here it may be (or a precursor to in the future):
The Book of Revelation of Jesus Christ:
Chapter 8
Verse 8: And the second angel sounded, and as it were a great mountain burning with fire was cast into the sea: and the third part of the sea became blood;
Verse 9: And the third part of the creatures which were in the sea, and had life, died; and the third part of the ships were destroyed.
Oil is the water is red in appearance like "blood". The BP platform would look like a "great mountain burning...cast into the sea" to a man 2,000yrs ago (Apostle John, the author).
i'm with this. as the seas become more anoxic due to spreading oil, red tides settle in many of the world's coastlands, where most of the people and sea life are. the oxygenless oceans then see massive die off of fisheries, further poisoning the system. that'll cause the four horsemen to gallop.
prophecies always sound silly until they come true.
HOLY CRAP! I find it pretty scary that you know this shit man.
that was definitely one crazy mushroom trip that john of patmos had, that's for sure.
mscreant, i would personally classify this under the 'future famine' section, considering that petrol is the blood of modern agriculture.
Mark Levin interviewed someone on deck at the time of the explosion and he also stated that they hit a pocket of gas under such high pressure that it blew all their safety valves, blew the drilling mud out of the drilling string and then flooded the deck with the gas, which then , of course , ignited.
If a nuke can seal this thing, they should go ahead and do it. Otherwise, we are ten days away from testing a sealing chamber....
Really guys, nuke an oil gusher, especially one such as this?
Yup, that will solve this little issue.
Looks like some people believe the "we know how to do controlled nukes line".
Nuts!
If one nuke won't work, we'll just have to double the amount of nukes so it seems to me.
And as the US has about 3700 nukes, WE SEEM TO HAVE A LOT OF OPTIONS HERE! 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024... A least we'll get some good fireworks :)
Nuclear Keynesianism.
Now we're cooking!!!
this is very serious, huh? especially when it isn't headlines on the NYT's. i could only find something on the guardian and they were dissing BP. they don't know what in the fuck to do to solve or mitigate.
we are ten days away from testing a sealing chamber. what does that mean, please?
"we are ten days away from testing a sealing chamber. what does that mean, please?"
It means that these irresponsible fucktards don't have a clue. This scenario was never imagined and they are improvising, hoping to be able to pull off a Hail Mary.
Don't open a seafood restaurant.
They are building a big, heavy cap that they hope can seal this thing under the high pressure oil flow. As far as I can tell, no one even knew that pressures this high existed.
This is nature trumping man and is building up to be a megadisaster...
Here is the Mark Levine interview with the fellow on deck (friday)
Part 1:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tNXeVHX7o5k
Part 2:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXnZscXt7UY
god this seems a lot more grave than stupid Greece. holy heck, no one even knew that pressures this high existed. that is cosmos stuff. this is frightening to me, no one in charge. are you worried?
i have such a difficult time listening to men with southern accents.
Just when I was starting to like you ;-)
Yes, I am very concerned. I have my doubts that something under this high a pressure can be sealed. Imagine trying to put a lid on an open fire hydrant, only much worse.
Like I said, if a nuke can actually seal this thing, than just do it. Assuming that a nuke would work, I fear political correctness would prevent its use...
The southern accent is actually very relaxing for me to listen to, especially a southern female accent...
Babe, did you junk me? Babe? I can't help the southern accent thingy babe, its where I was raised as a child! Hell, I even like the damn accent when its yelling at me!
Hulk, you obviously didn't see Abyss, and how the nuke worked out. I don't want to see a weird finger of water rising out of my shower drain over here. But yeah, if it is going to spew 162,000 barels a day...the worst case BP estimate...you'd have to look at that ROI. I gather they know how to drill through again from the side. A low yield nuke ought to cost the taxpayers less than a 50 million a pop I'd guess.
What if the side drilled vent hole is under almost as much pressure and blows too? Or nuking cracks it even wider open? I'm lovin' these solutions here.
My thoughts exactly. If they couldn't handle the pressure the first time, how are they going to handle it the second time. And the nuke thing scares the hell out of me because once you set it off, there is no going back to what is on site now. If it makes matter worse, a very real possibility, you have no options left.
Thats why I used "if". I, of course,have no idea on how to stop this thing. My point being that this is a megadisaster and if a nuke or other explosive can seal this thing, than just do it. looks to me that there is enough distant from the bottom of the ocean to the actual oil reserve, that a small exlosive (kilotons) set in a parallel hole could seal the thing if set off at the appropriate point. A nuke generates enough heat so that rock and sand is melted thus sealing the hole
I understood your point Hulk. You weren't stating absolutes but simply saying that IF it is viable, let's seriously consider it.
We both know that IF it is viable, it will be the last thing they do because the equipment in the eyes of the powers that be is much more valuable than human and non human life. Screw the birds, I have $100 Million of BOP, riser and other associated pipe down there I can salvage. Let's wait until we screw up all the beaches within 300 miles completely for the next 50 years before we even consider losing that equipment.
I know there will be people who argue that BP is not thinking along these lines. Bullshit. They always think along those things. Always!
Yep, these companies are just fucking evil now...
If it was Exxon....I'd agree with you.....but BP is a flippin charity. On Thunderhorse they outsourced everything putting all the knowledge and expertise outside company control. They were paying 2-5X what they should because separate arms of the company were paying contractors for the same work.
My point was that in business, human and non human life is not as valuable as property. Unless of course business could go back to the good old days when human life was property. Hey a CEO can dream, right?
<sarcasm off>
HAHAHA, Good one :)
You are correct, I did not see abyss, But I did see Godzilla, with Raymond Burr, and know exactly how bad things can go with these Nukes!
The nuke would be nothing compared to the amount of damage this oil is going to cause...
http://www.glossary.oilfield.slb.com/Display.cfm?Term=blowout%20preventer
I dont know about submarines but sending swat teams in doesnt pass the smell test ...
" I dont know about submarines but sending swat teams in doesnt pass the smell test ..."
SWAT Teams Is an Easy One
SWAT teams are useless waste of money... so they have to try and get them operational hours to justify their existence in a budget...
Soooo deploy them anywhere you can to claim they are useful.... parades, traffic duty, dog licence inspections, oil rig fuckups, Rahm's birthday party....
Yeah, I'm still waiting for an explanation as to what the SWAT teams were supposed to do, or what triggered their being sent. Typically those would be sent to an anti-terrorism or hostage situation, or maybe to check rigs for bombs? Otherwise, they'll be even less useful than the bunch of federal government lawyers sent to New Orleans, apparently to prop up CNN and the local bars and restaurants.
There is a lot of confusion on this subject. Drilling companies and sometimes drilling equipment companies have teams of people ready to move on a moments notice that are moved to a problem spot. They are called SWAT teams by the industry but it simply means specialized people to handle specialized problems.
On the other hand, there have been reports of actual military/police style SWAT teams sent to other rigs. But this could be bad reporting, where someone hears the term "SWAT" and assumes it means military/police. The fact that this has not been clarified by "officials" seems to me to indicate there might actually be armed military/police SWAT teams and the officials are using the confusion to stay out of public sight.
-"some smart engineer will figure out how to cap the leak well before any doomsday scenario could possibly happen."
What about an alternative scenario that some politician will figure out a way to fuck it up something Royal?
OMG, let's not go there.
I am still waiting to hear someone chime in that the disaster was caused by a (insert bad country name)'s submarine.
:)
"I am still waiting to hear someone chime in that the disaster was caused by a (insert bad country name)'s submarine. "
Colombian military smuggling cocaine with a US sub supplied to them with War on <insert Drugs, Terror> funds from the US... to support CIA drug volume stateside...
Certainly the most plausible theory...
You asked for it, so here's a link to an article about a bad actor country's submarine possible involvement in the oil rig disaster.
http://www.whatdoesitmean.com/index1367.htm
(You'll need to scroll down past the other crap posted at the top, but someone has an imagination, I don't know if they work at the CIA or in the Obama administration)
Let's hope the coke still gets here on time, and wasn't lost by the collision. Imagine we'd have to go cold turkey for a day!
The disaster was caused by a Canadian submarine.
It had to be said.
Isn't Lizzy from Canada? Blame Lizzy. :>)
I was actually trying to make fun of some country just really fucking up, and hitting the oil pipe. The list of countries that go skulking around is fairly large (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_submarine_operators), so I am surprised this has not happened already. Anyway, somewhere on ZH I came across an apropos quote from Napoleon, "Never ascribe to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity".
Human Error. Indeed.
We had similar processes at work during the Three Mile Island disaster. That facility is enormous, so the on-site personnel did everything they could at first to avoid shutting it down. Keeping production going -- its human nature.
Here's the rig: http://img708.imageshack.us/img708/3125/thunderhorseoilrig425x3.jpg
This time around they had a half-day to do the cut-off and screwed the pooch same as TMI.
BTW: how dumb was the "Drill baby, drill" motto ??? A sure failure come the next big oil spill. Dumb enough to qualify as Republican. (They are attempting political suicide, right ???)
Well, I want more evidence to come in, but it looks like just another industrial accident, albeit on a huge scale.
This IS a big beal, as "drill, drill, drill" was (and maybe will still be?) an important part of our short to medium term energy supplies.
If this catastrophe kills off the deepwater drilling business, that will be another nail in our economic coffin.
Watch Brazil keep drilling though. This disaster in our Gulf may bring Brazil HUGE amounts of money. Buy Petrobras?
Also, who else but Transocean has the rigs and technology to drill in deepwater?
BP's Worst Case
Section 7.1 contains the number everyone seems to be looking for; the volume of oil for an uncontrolled blowout is 162,000 barrels per day (6,804,000 gallons).
http://s282.photobucket.com/albums/kk271/pzabawa/?action=view¤t=re...