OMB's Latest Projections Estimate 250K Jobs Created Each Month Through End Of 2015

Tyler Durden's picture

Yesterday the OMB released its Mid-Season Review of the US Budget. In keeping with the encroaching Beijingization of all data releases, the administration now sees yet another decline in the 2010 budget deficit, this time a reduction of $84 billion compared to the February forecast. According to the budget office, despite a $33 billion projected drop in revenues, outlays will see an even greater haircut courtesy of "lower unemployment and government program" spending. Yet even so, the 2010 budget deficit is expected to hit $1.47 trillion and $1.42 trillion in 2011. Of course, all these numbers are flawed and irrelevant: the confirmation - the OMB's assumption about jobs projections. To wit: "With continued healthy growth in 2011 and beyond, the unemployment rate is projected to fall, but it is not projected to fall below 6.0 percent until 2015." One problem with this "assumption": for this projection to actually happen, it means the US government needs to start creating 245 thousand jobs every month beginning in July through the end of 2005 (and we give the OMB the benefit of the doubt: if their assumption means 6% by the beginning of 2015, it implies a ridiculous job creation rate of 300,000 per month for 54 months straight). Alas, in attempting to present the rosiest picture possible, the budget office is now completely ignoring such useless things as logic and merely discrediting itself with increasingly more ridiculous "analyses."

Readers will recall that a few days ago we presented the summary findings of a CEPR paper which demonstrated that 2007 peak employment levels will not be met until 2021, even after assuming a job creation rate of 166,000 a month for eleven straight years. The reason for this is that all the very smart economists consistently miss the most glaringly obvious thing: demographics, or specifically population growth. As the CEPR indicated, "Based on CBO projections, we assume a monthly growth in the labor force of just over 90,000 workers per month from January 2008 forward." In other words, just the natural growth of America will have added 8.6 million vacancies to the labor force from December 2007 through the end of 2015. And since the economy is already in the hole to the tune of 7.5 million jobs from the 2007 peak (see chart below), the OMB is effectively stating that it can bridge the shortfall of 16 million jobs in the next 5 years. Why, sure they can - if they can somehow create 245k jobs each month for the next 66 months. Alas, as the data demonstrates, the only time during the tenure of the Obama administration where there was a positive NFP number, is when the census fudge factor added hundreds of thousand of (potentially double-counted) positions, which have now been unwound. And obviously each month that does not create a net positive add to the economy, means more and more jobs have to be back-end loaded. In a few months, the economy will need to be adding 300k amonth to get to the OMB projection, then 400k... then 500k... Soon after that even China will have to tip its hat to the US propaganda machine.

Full chart summarizing the latest set of Goebbels-worthy data coming from the administration below:

Alas, this utter lack of logical thinking is precisely what occurred in the European stress tests: we will have quite a few more things to say shortly about Germany's Street Test Urban Achievers, the Landesbanks shortly, and how using a little comparable logic and data mining also quite easily refutes yesterday's "stupendous news."

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Gully Foyle's picture

So we are legalizing drugs and prostitution. Cool.

ISEEIT's picture

Horray!! Fuck it all, I'm going to pencil in a 100% COLA adjustment for the next five years! Gotta go shopping now, never new times would be so good!


hedgeless_horseman's picture

Bar-ak Hussein O'bah-mah, President of the United States, said that if we pass the stimulus unemployment won't go above 8%.

drbill's picture

Of course the government can create 245K jobs/month for the next 5 years. Afterall, everyone knows that its the government that creates wealth and not that pesky private sector! Ouch! I think I sprained my sarcasm muscles with that one!

tunaman4u2's picture

All government jobs is right, because you gotta make it look like you're doing better than the other countries. Funny highschool psych

Remington IV's picture

OMB much heroin , so little time

grunion's picture

As long as they don't poach on the Mexican market. Should they try, well...

docj's picture

The OMB looks into the future and riotous hilarity ensues.  To wit...

...despite a $33 billion projected drop in revenues, outlays will see an even greater haircut courtesy of "lower unemployment and government program" spending.

CONgress just did a fine job reversing that little haircut.

...the 2010 budget deficit is expected to hit $1.47 trillion and $1.42 trillion in 2011.

So, we're allegedly in a 'recovery' and the Fed.Gov is still going to be nearly $1.5T in the red?  Some freaking recovery we got there.

With continued healthy growth in 2011 and beyond..

Continued?  (As in, we're actually growing in the private sector today?  Really?)

Healthy? (As in, what little growth there may be isn't entirely due to the sugar rush of the Fed.Gov spending 11% of GDP in deficit?  Really?)

Que Indigo: They keep-a usin' those a-words ('recovery', for example).  I do-no thin' they mean wha' they thin' they mean.

nmewn's picture

A cart searching in vain for a horse...LOL.

Congress has not passed a budget.

hedgeless_horseman's picture

OMB: Office of Management and Budget for the United States of America. 

An appropriately sad quip escapes me. 

Maybe the equivalent to the Office of Equality and Women for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia? 


Anarchist's picture

Either someone has been smoking too much crack or E2 is going to consist of a massive public works project. The other option is we are going to start WWIII.

Blankman's picture

Does this bill consider Afghanistan a war, if so then they had better declare it a war soon.  

Declaration of war From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

United States President Franklin D. Roosevelt signs a declaration of war against Nazi Germany on December 11, 1941.

declaration of war (aka DOWDoW) is a formal performative speech act or signing of a document by an authorized party of a government in order to initiate a state of war between two or more nations. The legality of who can declare war varies between nations and forms of government. In many nations power is given to the head of state or sovereign. In other cases something short of a full declaration of war, such as a letter of marque or a covert operation, may authorise warlike acts by privateers ormercenaries. The official international protocol for declaring war was defined in the Hague Convention (III) of 1907 on the Opening of Hostilities.

fuu's picture

If they even get close to passing that abomination there will be blood in the streets.

anony's picture

The math you use is equally faulty, to wit:

If there can be 6,000,000 jobs created in one month, say November 2010 then all your calculations on per month job creation fall dramatically. WE may need ony a dozen a month and that would be a snap.

Tyler Durden's picture

Don't forget the case where the US creates 1 billion jobs one month then proceeds to loose 985 million in the other 65.

end times prophet's picture

Actually, with the annual birth-death adjustment they can do whatever they like.

traderjoe's picture

Ah, the B/D adjustment. A premier example of government manipulation of statistics, and also how the MSM, stock/investment cabal, etc. all play along. The NFP number is one of the most manipulated of all statistics but it occupies a central place in the monthly releases.

The MSM repeated mentioned yesterday that the budget deficit had been estimated downwards - without discussing it's record level, the un-sustainability, and what underlying assumptions there were in the downward adjustment.  

trillion_dollar_deficit's picture

When your model is based on ZIRP4EVA and TRILLION$DEFICITS4EVA anything is possible. Even 2+2 can equal 5.

uno's picture

The difference seems to be Goebbels and Beijing know they were lying, OMB (like the SEC, EPA) is simply a bunch of clueless idiots.  Maybe they should stick to surfing porn.


Yardfarmer's picture

it's not surprising that OMB would release such meretricious figures. director Peter Orszag,who's name was recently added to the list of the many rats deserting the sinking ship of the Obama administration, has quite a pedigree involving outright mendacity. As advisor to the Russian Ministry of Finance in 1998, Orszag presided over the asset stripping and privatization of state resources consolidated into the hands of the notorious oligarchs, a majority of whom fled the country for the City of London after that wholesale looting. Again, as an advisor to the Bank of Iceland along with then World Bank president Joseph Stiglitz, in 2008 he served the same purposes as international financial hitman in the pillage of the island nation's financial system, the devastation of which we are still seeing the results of today.He was also part of the cabal, along with Rahm Emmanuel, which crafted NAFTA, resulting in the destructive trade policies and massive job drain under the Clinton administration. Among these and many other crimes he also sports a most shamefully hideous toupee.

JR's picture

A powerful shot across the bow, Yardfarmer.  You don’t have to have total collapse before the rats begin to run.  Then you replace them…with rat catchers!

Gimp's picture

That's why I don't like him...the "toupee". LOL

On a more serious note, the numbers from OMB are just a joke as usual. They are assuming most of the country are morons and will fall for anything they say...maybe right.

Hope, Change, Hope, Change, Hopey, Changey thingy.

lizzy36's picture

Hope + Change = lifetime supply of K-Y.

g3h's picture

That's why Obama is your man.  Best OMB report ever, the hope we need.


Oops.  Director Orszag refused to sign.  Instead he quit.

slovester's picture

So little time, so many lies...

SayTabserb's picture

But can't we at least be happy about one thing? The employment picture is so lousy that the Treasury is no longer running a Social Security surplus; ergo, there is no surplus to steal. So the deficit as stated is the actual deficit, not the old style deficit plus the amount stolen, which used to allow all the other Administrations to mask the size of the true deficit. Take that, Yoh-sef! 

TexasAggie's picture

This should now be adding to the deficeit; they don't have the cash to give to SS, remember instead of in hte lockbox, they have used it to buy votes.

So some additional notes/bonds will need to be sold to repay the money the politicians previously stole from the lock box.

bugs_'s picture

Fit that curve bitches! Force it!  Feel the burn!

You've got computer power to spare!

For more help see the Economic Fiction section of your book store.


SayTabserb's picture

Hey, it worked when Yossarian moved the bomb line up over Bologna in the middle of the night. For a little while.

-Michelle-'s picture

They're so cute when they're this age, drawing their little pictures and getting excited about their little stories...

Misean's picture

+1.4T give or take a billion!

Misean's picture

"Alas, this utter lack of logical thinking is precisely what occurred in the European stress tests"

Now, that's not quite accurate.  The thinking IS logical, given the assumptions.  The problem rests with the notion that you assume that the assumptions used should at least in some small way, comport with reality.  That apriori assumption is a mistake made by reality minded people.  Reality minded people do not work inside the beltway.  You also assume that the only way to do analysis is to take a realistic assumption and procede to a conclusion.  OMB does things a bit differently.  The assume a desired conclusion and procede to the needed assumptions. 

BurritoGas's picture

I just read GW's Post :


Someone mentioned that US can just "print" its debt away, due to debt being denominated in US Dollars. So then I look at this:

What the hell will happen to that Cash and Short Term Investments:  of $24,000,000,000.

Surely Google will not be upbeat about having the money that it accumulated over the years, be worthless.

Can anyone put this into perspective for me please?

Cathartes Aura's picture

Google-boys are attendees of the Bilderberg soirée crowd, so I'm sure they will be "compensated" for keeping to their oaths. . .

JR's picture

Finally, the OMB has joined the blackhole of total government lies—obviously so commandeered by the Oligarchs that nothing can be believed.

Unemployment, tragically contrary to Obama’s remarks today (“We’re headed in the right direction.”), is nothing less than the broken foundation of our entire economy.

With toady economists and prostitute financial media firmly in tow, our government officials pronounce our condition as…in what would make even Joe Stalin cringe…  “THE JOBLESS RECOVERY.”

The victims fall within many categories and one, sadly, is formerly America's strength, her young men, now facing created competition from illegals on one level and on another…would you believe it?: WOMEN!

In a NY Times article in February, "The New Math on Campus": Women have represented about 57 percent of enrollments at American colleges since at least 2000, according to a recent report by the American Council on Education.”

Frankly, young men don't find college a very friendly environment anymore.

Says William Tucker in "The End of Men, The Beginning of What?": It isn't too surprising to find emblazoned on the cover of this month's Atlantic Monthly The End of Men -- How Women are Taking Control of Everything by Hanna Rosin.  Women not only make up 60 percent of college undergraduates "but the pattern is extending into the professional schools as well. As Rosin informs us, women now get 60 percent of master's degrees, half of law and medicine degrees, and 42 percent of MBAs."

Writes Tucker in The American Spectator this month (excerpts):

"When my sons started in grade school, I was amazed at how the teachers (mostly female) continually used the word 'feel' for 'think.' ('What do you FEEL about the story Lisa has just read?') Math no longer involves manipulating numbers but interpreting long word problems that are supposed to be 'more representative of real life.' The main scientific discipline is 'environmental science,' which mostly means lamenting human activity (most of it dreamed up by men, of course) while trying to feel closer to nature. In progressive Berkeley they are talking about eliminating advanced science labs altogether because women and minorities don't find them interesting.

"When boys arrive at elite colleges they are likely to be subjected to 'orientation programs' in which they learn they have spent all their lives oppressing women and that all their natural impulses are now illegal. They will soon find the swim team, the wrestling squad or some other favorite sport no longer exists because, under Title IX, not enough girls would go out for equivalent sports. …

"Imagine, though -- engineering! What a useless male preoccupation. Just because we haven't built anything worthwhile in this country for thirty years, or because our manufacturing plants have become obsolete, or because we are falling far behind the rest of the world in all kinds of key technologies, is of little concern. The important thing is to keep any vestiges of male chauvinism out of the curriculum. …

"This whole trend is now finding its way into the economy. Seventy-five percent of jobs lost in the recession belonged to men. As of a few months ago, for the first time in history, women outnumber men in the work force."

Writes Rosin:

"According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, women now hold 51.4 percent of managerial and professional jobs -- up from 26.1 percent in 1980. They make up 54 percent of accountants and hold about half of all banking and insurance jobs. About a third of America's physicians are now women, as are 45 percent of associates in law firms….A white-collar economy… increasingly requires formal educational credentials, which women are more prone to acquire…. Just about the only professions in which women still make up a relatively small minority of newly minted workers are engineering and those calling on a hard-science background…. Men dominate just two of the 15 job categories projected to grow the most over the next decade: janitor and computer engineer. Women have everything else -- nursing, home health assistance, child care, food preparation."

So asks Tucker:

If good grades and graduate degrees are becoming the yardstick for performance in the economy, what kind of economy are we creating? The first thing to notice about those Department of Labor statistics is that nearly all the next decade's expected job growth is in professions dependent on the government. The so-called "white-collar economy" we are entering is really an expanding government bureaucracy. …

Uncle Remus's picture

It is so perfect! All these American women and all those Chinese men just hankerin' for some lovin'.

He say, how much for blonde?

Bam_Man's picture

He say, how much for blonde?

Fye dollahh, fye dollahh.

You had to ask?

MeTarzanUjane's picture

I've been pointing this out for a long time to no avail. Women in the workplace. The reason that Amerika is doomed.

How can .gov build another fatter base on the pyramid when all the bitches are not doing what they are suppose to be doing??! Breeding.

Instead these bitches are up in the workplace feminizing all the men with their PC bullshit. As if.

The fact that this website is friendly to the PC bullshit that you and I discuss puts us at great risk for bringing this to light. So I shall end my fevered tirade here.

Stay home bitches. We don't need you in the workplace!

whatsinaname's picture

Nope thats why we legalize the illegals.

duo's picture

So THAT's why I can't find an engineer that graduated after 1990 that knows what I did in high school

mynhair's picture

The US started on the road to hell when women were given the right to vote.

Cursive's picture


"Women have everything else -- nursing, home health assistance, child care, food preparation."

Thanks for this.  We've outsourced all the functions of a mother and now women still dominate these roles, just in a minimum wage environment and without respect.  What sounds better:  a "housewife" or an $8/hr. "associate".  Mrs. Cursive does all of these things at our humble abode and enclave from the madness of modern day Amerika.  Our household really appreciates Mrs. Cursive.

JR's picture

I really appreciate your insight, Cursive.

The family was America’s strongest institution.  To destroy it, all that was needed was to make it economically impossible for a man to support his family on his salary alone.

By putting mothers into the workforce, then inflating prices until it took two incomes to meet necessities, the feminist movement—promoted by the Oligarchs and social changers such as Abby Aldrich Rockefeller--relegated the family to the back burner.  It was a sea change in our family structure.

America’s family was her citadel of morality; it was a powerful support for good government and a permanence in the society;  it was an enemy to those forces that would seek control for their selfish interests.

America’s shift away from the family began in the 1970s. By 1996 an estimated 75 percent of women who had children returned to their jobs within 12 weeks of giving birth. And all the while, the slogans were telling these $8/hr. associates that they were, “independent.”

Cathartes Aura's picture

I appreciated the link to the Atlantic article, it was well-written, with little of the whining apparent in the others you quoted from. . .

And given the nature of the comments that follow your OP, I'll take a rain-check on teh boyz opinions here. . . but it IS hella entertaining that the financialists who appear to have absolute control over the global markets are overwhelmingly male, yet you (collectively) still want to blame females for. . . going on to higher education and resulting better paid jobs. . . lolwut??

logic fail.

StychoKiller's picture

In the "Age of Kali" (a female goddess), why would you expect things to be any different?