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The One Chart Von Bernankestein Will Never Admit To Seeing

Tyler Durden's picture


Charting Austrian Money Supply, the Fed's outright security holdings, and commodity prices. Any questions?

(no snow was abused as a strawman excuse for the Fed's mandate of "price stability" in the making of this chart)

Courtesy of Sean Corrigan



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Sun, 02/13/2011 - 18:57 | 958297 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture


only the good die young

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 08:56 | 957395 Optimusprime
Optimusprime's picture

Catherine Austin Fitts  is a gem!  Perceptive, fearless, and lucid.  Tyler should invite her to offer her summary assessments here on ZH.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 11:17 | 957546 unununium
unununium's picture

CAF just made my heroes list

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 16:21 | 958036 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Thanks for posting this blindman. This is an indictment on us and them. Awesome.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 17:27 | 958156 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

C A Fitts is now added to my favorites, Thank you for the link!!!

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 20:06 | 958409 blindman
blindman's picture

here more inspiring and surprising links

.  worlds of wonder  .

David Icke - Mind Revolution, Humanities Prison


The Recursive Game is the Policy


as pjb say, our "mileage may vary" but we can all get some mileage.


Mon, 02/14/2011 - 04:04 | 959017 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Cavair, it's being re-deployed right here, in India and the like. If you call a firehose of liquidity pointed at all the WRONG things. I look around at the apartment, tenement sprawl coming up all around me and all I see is fading dollar signs in the concrete and glass slab ugliness, powered by dirty generators (no power, not reliable anyways).

I'm sure it feels the smae in China or elsewhere. Places seen as future carcasses to feed on.


Sat, 02/12/2011 - 21:59 | 956795 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Is it time for the spring thaw?  What happens then?  Silver $50.00/oz?

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 09:53 | 957441 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

we've had the Spring thaw from the March 2009 fact we've had Spring and Summer (a bear market rally/bounce) it's now time for a short sharp Autumn and a big chilly Winter...

...then finally all the "Fed is all-powerful" true believers here at ZH will see the Feds powers are a total myth and is fuking useless like every other Dept of Govt.... bring it on because I'm bored stiff telling everybody!!! 


Sun, 02/13/2011 - 19:00 | 958302 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture


nice, ZH, esp the part about the FED BEing part of the goobermint. 

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 22:27 | 956834 tekhneek
tekhneek's picture

What is it with people throwing around prices like "$50?", "$90?" "$100?" "$500?"

What difference does it make? If you aren't buying it now, even just a year from now, you'll regret it. You can trade this stuff but when you realize what this chart is showing, not exchanging your fiat currency for some form of hard asset is pretty much committing future suicide.

Silver's in backwardation. Inflation adjusted it would be roughly $138/oz today compared to it's 1980's high of $48 and some change. If you want to measure it against money supply for instance, some argue $500 is a fair spot. That is, take all of the dollars and divide it by the price of silver per ounce currently. If you want to argue supply/demand dynamic + money supply + globalization then the odds of it hitting a 12:1, if not more (aka snapping the historic 12:1 ratio in half) are just as high. You can measure it however you want, but there's really just a few things to remember.

  1. Ben is literally raping your dollar. He is bending that sweet-precious dollar over an 1,800C furnace, thus burning it to shit, then slapping on his big-huge-government issued sandpaper condom and thrusting it as deep as he can into it's value thus reducing it.
  2. He can't do that to silver.
  3. Silver's more rare than gold.
  4. Yes, Jesus loves you. But he never bought you a Glock for christmas so get one.
  5. Get a membership to COSTCO and buy their 50lb bags of Rice and 25lb bags of beans. You can get 3 months worth of food for roughly $18 USD right now.


Sun, 02/13/2011 - 01:24 | 957128 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

People got 99 problems and price of silver ain't one.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 03:03 | 957235 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

canned tuna in water...  a meal and a drink

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 19:03 | 958306 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture


i like mercury dimes, but that fukin tuna ain't goin in slewie's piehole unless it haza fur coat or is neatly trimmed for Best in Show BiCH, BiCHeZ.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 12:10 | 957615 European American
European American's picture

Pursue Agriculture, off the grid, with a like minded tribe. Emphasis on pure water and organic. Far, far away from the madding crowd.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 14:46 | 957855 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Amen to that.

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 22:32 | 956839 ExploitTheMarket
ExploitTheMarket's picture

Michael Pollaro's blog is also excellent for tracking True (Austrian) Money Supply-- He also tracks TMS in Japan & Europe:

and his latest article: "America, poised for a hyperinflationary event?'

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 23:04 | 956898 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

If it isn't Austrian Economics it's propaganda.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 03:15 | 957248 tellsometruth
Sat, 02/12/2011 - 23:09 | 956906 Quaderratic Probing
Quaderratic Probing's picture

Hey stop blaming Gentle Ben he does not own the Fed, the Fed is not a reserve its a private bank.... A really big private bank. The product of this bank is debt, it follows that if inflation takes a big chunk out of your disposable income you will have to get bigger loans to cover your needs. Gentle Ben has a boss and its not the US government, That boss is very happy with Ben

Sat, 02/12/2011 - 23:16 | 956920 MiningJunkie
MiningJunkie's picture

Which is WHY the Standard and Zimbabwe's 500 is going to 5,000...

U.S. stocks are going to the moon...When Case-Shiller Index hits new highs for U.S. housing, the market will be at all-time highs.

There is NOTHING that will stop it.

Never underestimate the replacement power of equities within a hyperinflationary spiral.

Many thanks to Benjamin Shalom Barnanke and the Fed for the magnificent job they have done to my precious metals holdings as well as my e/s trading!


Sat, 02/12/2011 - 23:29 | 956939 thedrickster
thedrickster's picture

Countdown until MCTP babbles something about drought.....10...9...8..

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 00:23 | 957036 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Charting Austrian Money Supply, the Fed's outright security holdings, and commodity prices. Any questions?


Only that money supply has to be weighed with credit supply-

The credit market is 20 times the size of the cash market-

So it absoulutly must be counted when gauging money supply-

It has reversed but it is still negative-

I wouldn't discount this ominous 70 year trend line break-

If you want to weigh inflation or deflation-you must use both money supplys

Another thing that's important is the fact that businesses are maxing out credit lines in case of another freeze-

It registers as cash on the balance sheet-but it is still debt by any other name-of course it is invested in treasuries to offset the interest rates-but that cash/credit has no velocity-

Cheering the Asset and Ignoring the Liability. ....

So the uptick in borrowing is inflationary-but only if it is being deployed into the broad economy and unemployment rates and velocity tell us it isn't-


Sun, 02/13/2011 - 00:47 | 957083 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I wanna see more from you..

sourced and sited.. if you could throw in a little sex a fun for the lesser minded, that would be grand.

anything to get them reading and thinking on thier own will do!

Thank You! for the Post.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 05:45 | 957314 Rodent Freikorps
Rodent Freikorps's picture

Don't hold your breath. I have co-workers who were so shocked that I was reading a fat book, they mentioned it out loud. "Are you going to read that whole thing?"

They acted like I was going to do something painful.


Mon, 02/14/2011 - 00:59 | 958903 JW n FL
Sun, 02/13/2011 - 02:35 | 957219 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Look up, Quaderratic's got you covered:

"Hey stop blaming Gentle Ben he does not own the Fed, the Fed is not a reserve its a private bank.... A really big private bank. The product of this bank is debt, it follows that if inflation takes a big chunk out of your disposable income you will have to get bigger loans to cover your needs. Gentle Ben has a boss and its not the US government, That boss is very happy with Ben"

Emphasis mine.

'Mark to Skypie' remains, want to lay odds on that changing anytime soon?


Sun, 02/13/2011 - 03:06 | 957239 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

The product of this bank is debt, it follows that if inflation takes a big chunk out of your disposable income you will have to get bigger loans to cover your needs.


Unemployment at record highs-43 million and counting on SNAP-

RE in decline-debt as far as the eye can see and somehow those who can't borrow will be able to and those who can borrow will?


if you could throw in a little sex a fun for the lesser minded, that would be grand.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 16:29 | 958050 hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

Excellent post, enjoyed the link to hussmanfunds... good reading.


Sun, 02/13/2011 - 01:05 | 957106 Papaneuf
Papaneuf's picture

End the Fed, Bitchez!

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 01:45 | 957157 Milton Waddams
Milton Waddams's picture

with apologies to the insane clown posse and their contingent of juggalos...

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 01:54 | 957177 Papaneuf
Papaneuf's picture

Ouch, another whistleblower walks into the mousetrap.

Mouse traps, Bitchez!




Sun, 02/13/2011 - 09:53 | 957444 Hephasteus
Sun, 02/13/2011 - 02:40 | 957223 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture
Ron Paul: Inflation Statistics Are Rigged, Bernanke's Money Printing Is a Total Failure

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 07:49 | 957365 ivars
ivars's picture

January core CPI  may be interesting. It comes out on Thursday. Time to Short stocks, finally.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 08:31 | 957377 Silversinner
Silversinner's picture

If you own gold,silver and are stocked with food,

you are ready for revolution.I can sit at any square

for months,maybe years.When you die during revolution,

the wealth and food is close to the family,wife and children.

While you riot in the streets,your gold is going up in price,and

your making money.Creative destruction,with tnx to US gouverment

for the concept.



Sun, 02/13/2011 - 09:04 | 957405 muzza
muzza's picture

Dear all,

Worth a read - seems the CCP are gettign a little fed up with Uncle Ben's shenanigans



Sun, 02/13/2011 - 10:05 | 957452 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

yes looks like China has some pathalogically deranged retards just as Europe and America has... sooner we dump Govt the quicker these insane warmongers get starved of oxygen and lose their favourite tyrannical tool, the State

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 17:59 | 958205 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

That site is a menace.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 09:13 | 957413 LibertyIn2010
LibertyIn2010's picture

I believe early August is when the Fed announced at its FOMC that another round of QE was coming.   

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 11:24 | 957555 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

hating goldman sachs, the chinese way.....everybody hates lloyd

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 11:30 | 957563 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Congress spends and wastes it.  Bernanke has to print it up.  I'd like a friend like the Bernank.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 12:42 | 957654 koot
koot's picture

There is absolutely no real desire in the White house or most of congress to reduce budget deficits.   There is lots of talk, posturing and more talk, but with 80% of the budget non-discretionary spending on such things like entitlements and military which for all practical purposes is really just MOB control, the debt bomb ticks closer every day to blowing up. 

How will this all end?  It depends on IF the US ever gets leadership, and that is not possible for at least two more years.  Therefore odds are any possible responsible explicit default on debt will not happen. 

Explicit default would be any combination of massive entitlement, pension, health care and military reform where all non-discretionary spending is slashed a great deal.  This will not sit easy with public so other explicit default will also be applied such as debt restructure on treasuries where certain holders of debt get paid less than others, this also includes the restructuring of pensions and other government promises where everyone has to take a hard hit.

Explicit default is not likely to be done until implicit default is accelerating rapidly.  Implicit default is monetization of debt by such things as QE and rapid inflation in costs.  Right now it appears implicit default is the plan, because it does not take political miracles.  Inflation is much higher than reported which is methodology of implicit default.  CPI numbers are hedonically calculated where substitution of something cheaper is used instead of what used to be used.  For example if the price of Steak is rising, the US government will substitute the price of hamburger into the food calculation instead, and if hamburger gets too expensive they may substitute something cheaper say Dog Food.  But they can not substitute cheaper oil unless they can find someplace where oil happens for some reason to be priced less than what the rest of the world pays, say WTI instead of Brent. 

Therefore implicit default is the likely methodology which will result in significantly higher costs in commodities and most consumables.  The dollar will also decline on a world basis and everyone would be smart to ignore the artificial dollar pricing based mostly on the Euro, Yen and Pound.  US bonds are a disaster, and we are likely to see stocks outperform bonds with lower risk for some time, for example EXXON stocks will outperform and be lower risk than EXXON Bonds.  QE will not end, because then the debt bomb would go off all at once. 

So hang on for a ride of your life, because your life depends on it.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 13:04 | 957700 JimS
JimS's picture

Wealth= a good fishing boat, a quite lake, eagles flying above (waiting for a dead fish floating), and a smallmouth bass on the line, fighting for his life. That's wealth.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 19:33 | 958350 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture


i don't fish much, anymore, now that the kidzr grown, but i sure love eagles.  usta have a golden that flew around over my house, up north.  last summer i saw a baldy;  i'd seen one many years before when i was communing w/ some amazing goat in Glacier Nat'l.  this one was amazing.  i was in a high place overlooking a beautiful valley and it came pumping from below, right at me.  i can still feel the rush.  got to my level about 100 yards out and we just kinda recognized each other, almost.  then it hung a left and followed the ridgeline north, where i lost it, right as it passed a big snag.  oh! the blessings of our universe. 

about six weeks later, i'm driving my friend pooh bear north to do some serious gambling.  there it was, again, heading south, along the freeway (!) abt 2-300 ft up.  i said:  did you see that? pooh:  yeh...  i got $20 ahead and quit;  he lost his shorts and the ass in them, too.  i sed:  what the FUK are you thinking?  and i knew what he wuz gonna sey, b/c we've bin takin these rides for well over a decade, together:  well, i don't a chance to come here as often as you, slewie. 

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 13:02 | 957701 Eureka Springs
Eureka Springs's picture

I still don't understand a call for gold standard. I mean i get it if you have a stash buried next to your septic tank, though i only own a gold pocket watch, which i cannot eat and forget to wind... but without rule of law I see no reason to believe any currency can escape the same corruption/ponzi scheming we face now?

You can buy a corrupt system with any currency... you can only clean it up if you walk like an Egyptian.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 15:12 | 957899 Rotwang
Rotwang's picture

Would that be walking like an Egyptian woman?

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 19:39 | 958359 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture


justin casey you have yer head wedged sumwhere near yer septic tank, matey, check out this roto-rooter:where in the constitution does it say Only Gold and Silver shall be Legal tender | Ron Paul 2012 | Sound Money, Peace and Liberty

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 13:23 | 957729 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

I respect the views of Karl, but when it comes to gold. Pfffff

Have a good laugh

The Adventures of Photoguy - Episode 18

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 13:55 | 957783 d00daa
d00daa's picture

Less Critical Thinking is conspicuously absent from this thread.  Color me shocked.

I'd love to hear his spin on the striking correlation between AMS and commodities.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 14:48 | 957861 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

I'll step up to the plate. Fictional scenario.

Are You Prepared For The Wealth Transfer?


Regarding AMS, WTO tossers are working on it.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 15:34 | 957940 nathandegraaf
nathandegraaf's picture

That chart is a picture of the engine that drives tyranny. 

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 21:40 | 958593 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

I'm going to name my car tyranny, and have it stolen and stripped after I take a huge insurance policy out on it; or maybe just dump it in the quarries.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 16:08 | 958013 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

Damn, I hope somebody bought that fucking dip.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 16:32 | 958056 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

I don't get Zero hedges aversion to base money printing , the dollar and euro is effectively worthless already after a period of epic private credit creation relative to a tiny base - at least Ben B is recognizing reality.

Learn to live with the concept that the paper has little wealth storing ability until this base increases dramatically and just use it as a medium of exchange.

In Ireland the medium of exchange function is dying as people hoard the remaining cash as they perceive it as a store of value creating a collapse in commerce and society due to the ECBs failure to accept responsibility for its actions in this disaster.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 19:52 | 958381 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture


dorkus non interupTus: where in the constitution does it say Only Gold and Silver shall be Legal tender | Ron Paul 2012 | Sound Money, Peace and Liberty

as far as the blarney goes, the corrigan guy that snoopy tagged this shit w/ today might put it this www.aY:  if people try to "cash out", this will be fukin nightnight mare for da boys.  i believe it is captcha'd: A RUN ON THE BANKZ, theo-rhet-i-cal-ye, we might cey.  in case these meta-turdio-toes ever get the runz, where the FUK are you gonna get green stamps, corkscrew?

erghost: having the green in one poke and PM's in the other B FORE!!! the "rush" might be nice, prudence, even matronly virtuous, eh?

t.y., mr. bones!

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 21:33 | 958584 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Your posts are torture...

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 22:17 | 958662 cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

I think he writes in code, Hulk...hidden meaning in spellings/multiple layers of nuanced realism. Kinda like playing that Beatles record backwards. Obviously, waaaay over our heads.....

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 23:32 | 958770 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Idiot savant?   I hear they are quite interesting personalities.  I'll bet he is a very good driver as well.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 21:36 | 958587 Implicit simplicit
Implicit simplicit's picture

Ben B denies his easy money policies for the banks have anything to do with the rise in commodiites. He is a liar or a fool

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 17:31 | 958163 watt
watt's picture

Correlation is not causation

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 19:57 | 958394 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture


and, as someone whohahz run my coffee grinder a-ground on "hidden" shoals so often due2, i might add that the map is NOT the territory, too, ok?

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 18:21 | 958241 time123
time123's picture

Yes, money supply has been growing. Notice also the stock market has been moving in the same direction, although not entirely clear that is the cause. There is defintely more volatility to come, especially if the Fed starts withdrawing liquidity laterf this year, and a good market timing system can help.







Mon, 02/14/2011 - 00:13 | 958827 jimmyjames
jimmyjames's picture

Yes, money supply has been growing. Notice also the stock market has been moving in the same direction, although not entirely clear that is the cause.


Yes i think it is the cause-

The Fed prints and banks borrow at zero and are speculating in the futures market and driving prices-

So we have hot money-courtesy of the taxpayers specualting in commodities with no fear of risk-because they know they'll get their asses bailed out if it fails and it will-

This can't continue-everything out there eventually has to find the market clearing level and when it does-don't be long commodities-

Two things are not being factored into these runaway blowoffs in commodities-

Us peasants and affordability-at some point it will matter-

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 18:41 | 958272 joebren
joebren's picture

I see a sea of green - but no inflation here Ben - just green

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 20:15 | 958426 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

People try to price us down.

Talking about my core inflation.

Just because we get around.

Talking about my core inflation.

Things they look awfully cold.

Talking about my core inflation.

Hope I die before I get old.

Sun, 02/13/2011 - 20:54 | 958504 JuicedGamma
JuicedGamma's picture

No shit Sherlockenstein, the inflation isn't hitting these shores <yet>, it's everywhere else that's foolishly tied themselves to the dollar.  It's all part of the plan, if they won't decouple, they will eventually capitulate as inflation becomes unbearable.


Sun, 02/13/2011 - 23:43 | 958791 pomogranate
pomogranate's picture

when I lived in Germany they used to say (roughly) ... Austria is nice except it's filled with fucking Austrians.  (actually I think Bill Bryson might have written it first).  In any case, Austrians, are by and large, assholes.

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