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As One Million Exhaust Jobless Benefits, A Look At What Recent Deteriorating Layoff Trends Means

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In addition to today's broad economic disappointment that once again nobody could have foreseen (save for a few comments from us back in January predicting just this most recent contraction), another incrementally negative development which will force the spin doctor to earn their overtime is the observation that over the past year at least 1 million unemployed have now officially fallen off the 99-week gravy train, and exhausted their entire jobless benefits. Luckily, for 10% of the US population there is the magically levitating S&P. For everyone else, there are foodstamps (for now).. and of course the worthless dollar. And in other news, Peter Tchir looks at the recent deplorable jobless claims numbers (wonder why you aren't hearing much about today's initial claims on CNBC? that's why) and comes to the following logical conclusion: "Currently expectations for next Friday's NFP is 183k.  I think the
number will be 160k, but in this world it makes no difference since that
will encourage belief in QE3 which will trigger dollar weakness which
will cause stocks to go up.  Since its hard to go long stocks with this
logic, it leaves me looking at precious metals." Tchir is not the only one doing so.

But first, the WSJ explains why quietly one million have fallen off Uncle Sam's weekly pittance:

Roughly one million people were unable to find work after exhausting their unemployment benefits over the past year, new data released Thursday by the Labor Department suggests.

The back-of-the-envelope datapoint is yet another sign that the labor market remains weak, economists said.

About 8.2 million idled workers were receiving unemployment benefits as of the week ended April 9, the Labor Department said in its weekly jobless claims report. That compares to about 10.5 million individuals at the same time last year, a decline of roughly 2.3 million people.

Since the federal government estimates that the economy created 1.3 million jobs during the 12 months ended in March, economists said that slightly less people probably fell through the cracks and couldn’t find employment.

“That leaves, roughly speaking, about one million people who have exhausted their unemployment benefits and have very likely not yet found a job,” said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at MFR Inc. in New York.

However, as long as all these recently subsidy-free individuals have a mortgage which they are not paying, and which the banks are not enforcing payment on as that would accelerate mark to market in an insolvent world, we are not too worried about their prospects, for now.

We will be worried soon, when all the broken wheels supporting the zombi economy finally fall off (and god help us if Bernanke really does not do QE3).

From Peter Tchir:

Jobless claims were clearly a big miss.  Not only were they worse than expectations 429k vs 395k, but it was the worst week since January, and is confirming the rising trend in the 4 week moving average.  We will likely hear even less about the moving average next week, as a nice 385k print drops out of the average.

Over the past year, we have argued repeatedly that jobless claims have understated the problems in the labor market.  We maintain our view that structural changes to the labor market have helped keep the claims number down. The mere fact that fewer people are working has reduced the pool of people who can be laid off.

Employers are far less likely to layoff people who are working part-time or with minimal benefits.  It has been far easier to cut back on hours rather than lay people off.  The workers accepted this given the bleak job market, and the employers liked the free option of keeping these workers around in case their business rebounded.

Every disappointment in Non-Farm Payrolls has validated our theory.  The old models have consistently predcited or hoped for better reports than we got.  Although the numbers have been positive since October, we have not seen a big blow out number, and many have been downright weak - especially considering we got QE2 and the big tax 'compromise'.

So, coming into the Christmas holidays, with QE2 flooding the system with money, tax cuts for the rich being extended, and payroll tax cuts for the lowly employees, it made sense to retain workers.  Every employer had to hope that this was finally the long awaited turnaround.  Since the workers were cheap to keep on the payroll, the cost of preparing for this big turnaround was minimal.

Well, guess what happened?  That turnaround has stumbled.  At the very least its not strong, and at worst, its completely fizzled and runs the risk of fading completely when the government spending is finally reduced.  So employers, who held onto employees, for a long time are finally saying they just can't do it.

Maybe its in preparation of a slow summer season, a result of inventory build up, but its undeniable that many employers, who clung to the hope that business would pick up, are finally going through another round of reductions.

What about the vaunted small business job creation?  Isn't the birth/death model showing job growth here?  Sure, but its a model.  I think the layoffs are coming more and more from small business.  In small businesses, there really is a personal attachment.  The consequences of laying of an employee, who may even be a friend, are more heartfelt, than for a large corporation.  From talking to some small business owners, they were less likely to let someone go in this weak economic environment.  They actually felt a responsibility to their employee. They worked hard to reduce hours, encourage the person to look for another job, but did all they could to keep them employed.  They are now throwing in the towel.  None of the momentum from October has carried through.  They are seeing weakness again and are having to move into self preservation mode.

What about big companies?  Aren't they 'all' reporting record earnings?  Yes, earnings are great, but it seems like most have seen business slow a little, so Q2 guidance has been a little disappointing, and virtually all companies have expressed some concern about margins.  If you are concerned about  margins you aren't hiring.

So, we continue to believe that 429k report is worse than people want to make it sound (the old 450k rule of thumb is outdated), and this reversal is the positive trend is real and part of another wave of job weakness.  Currently expectations for next Friday's NFP is 183k.  I think the number will be 160k, but in this world it makes no difference since that will encourage belief in QE3 which will trigger dollar weakness which will cause stocks to go up.  Since its hard to go long stocks with this logic, it leaves me looking at precious metals.

 

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Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:02 | 1216643 SilverIsKing
SilverIsKing's picture

Leaves me looking at precious metals too.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:10 | 1216674 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Just heard a rumor that a few gigantic macro funds are laying on leveraged index shorts today. 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:48 | 1216879 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Well there was a beat-down prior to Comex close.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:10 | 1216957 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Silver's price action looks like a fucking seismograph lately.  

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:15 | 1216715 Clueless Economist
Clueless Economist's picture

CNBS is actually quite useful to watch.  No, I am not talking about Steve Liesman's genius, but the commercials.

--I may be in my pajamas...

--Get Magic Jet or Jack or whatever now

--Bill Schaeffer made a financial gain with his invention, but these results are not typical

--Attention parents and grandparents with Gerber life insurance plan for your newborn

Highly polished and professional commercials keeps me glued to CNBS

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:30 | 1216794 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

+1...

...And on weekends, we are introduced to the remarkable Shake Weight For Men, followed by the umpteenth re-run of that crack piece of pop culture telejournalism: "Big Mac: Inside the McDonald's Empire."

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:57 | 1216903 redpill
redpill's picture

My favorite is the Magic Bullet infomercial with the comical "real people" guests, one of whom is dressed up like an older lady in a robe, with her hair in curlers, and an unlit cigarette dangling from her fingers.

 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 17:27 | 1217952 Buzz Killington
Buzz Killington's picture

Awesome!

 

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 00:13 | 1219236 Real Estate Geek
Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:47 | 1216870 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Back in the banking crisis, before the days of free money, any bank that advertised on CNBC was about to have an near death experience.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:14 | 1216987 knukles
knukles's picture

Fuck CNBS. 
I wanna start a cable TV channel called the Male Enhancement Channel.  Nothing but Spike and Fuel type programs, Manswers, almost nude female mud wrestling, full contact female sports, booze, beer, imported prescription drugs, firearms, bows and arrows, Myth-Busters blowing shit up, Gong Show reruns.... in fact, get Jerry Springer off of that lame Baggage program and let him do the New Gong Show, completely politically incorrect, bad arsed fucked up no good demented shallow entertainment...
With Male Enhancement Ads all over the place.  Appeal to the True Male Desparation, Viagra, Silent Bob, Penis pumps and assorted goodies, drawings for cases of Jack Daniels, bare nuckle fights....

Betcha the audience would be humongoloid.

Oh, and for redeeming value, have a ticker or two on the bottom showing PM's commodities, 4X and indexes... no individual stock quotes.  And online access to ZH.
Shazam!

 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:39 | 1217064 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

Let me know when that hits the airwaves, I'm tuning in!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 15:26 | 1217266 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

Be sure to set something up with the Elimidate production company, whose vanity card used to say: AMUSE THE BRUTES

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 22:25 | 1218968 Blano
Blano's picture

Bring back The Man Show.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 16:20 | 1217549 Popo
Popo's picture

Rising prices of commodities coupled with declining consumer spending power equals margin compression.

Margin compression equals a capacity overhang.

Does that still leave you looking at metals?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 19:18 | 1218342 DosZap
DosZap's picture

In light of the real reasons for holding to begin with, Hell yes it does.

Reduction in consumer spending can mean a lot of things.

And none of it affects the reasons owning PM's.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 21:12 | 1218703 apartofthings
apartofthings's picture

Inflation: PMs rise in price. You are protected.

Deflation: PMs decline in price, but so does everything else. They keep their value.

Currency collapse: PMs worth something in the new currency, not sure about all the old paper investments. And if the new currency is gold/silver backed...

Economic collapse: Sure you can't eat PMs, but that wasn't the point. They carry your wealth through the collapse and out the other side.

For me it's a win-win-win-win scenario to own PMs. Physical only of course.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:03 | 1216650 tickhound
tickhound's picture

green shoot

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:07 | 1216665 cossack55
cossack55's picture

green shit

 

Easy fix.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:25 | 1216764 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

green beer shits.  Break out the PBR.

repairs complete.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:58 | 1217146 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

Which one of you drinks that fucking popskull?  I swear, you'll shit through a screen door and never touch a wire if you drink that skankwater.

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 00:48 | 1219288 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Meh, lagers -- gimme an Ale anyday.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:09 | 1216670 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Can't the BLS also blame the nice weather? 

GALVESTON, Texas — The lights are back on around Southeast Texas after power outages linked to dry weather hit the region a day after several nearby refineries and chemical plants lost electricity.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/tx/7540575.html

Stuxnet gone off the reservation?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 19:20 | 1218354 DosZap
DosZap's picture

No, it's just one more piece of the Apocalyse working it's way through the world.

We just lost well over 600,000 acres due to fires, in the past 3 weeks.

And the funny part, if there is one, hasn't hit 90* but one time that I know of.No rain there, or in a lot of  Okla.

But the North Tx area has been getting drenched for 3 of the last 5 days.

Along with tornado's.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:09 | 1216658 hambone
hambone's picture

Ok - somebody explain why the 10yr T yield is tanking as if there will certainly be no QE3?  Dropping like a rock and although massively manipulated, truly seems there is no exodus as Fed's couldn't buy enuf T's if everybody wanted out...???

Metals saying massive inflation, dollar tanking, but bonds saying deflation again?  Both manipulated but still glints of true expectations in both...

Absent QE I guess I would think T yields would rise w/ spending unchecked to pay for all these social programs???

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:26 | 1216792 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Why would the response be any different than last time QE ended: stock market tanks, USTs rise in a "flight to safety"?  That's how I expect it to play out.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:48 | 1216880 Boston
Boston's picture

Yup.  And for more, see Jeffrey Gundlach's explanation in Barron's cover story......from a couple of months ago.

This is playing out EXACTLY as predicted.

 

 

 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:06 | 1216660 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

"I quit hope...now I feel much better"

Woody Allen

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:06 | 1216669 Tracerfan
Tracerfan's picture

My administration will not count unemployed people who give up looking for work because there are no jobs available.  They simply don't count anymore.  A neat trick, don't you think?  Makes the unemployment rate lower and helps me with my reelection campaign.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:19 | 1216742 tawdzilla
tawdzilla's picture

After 99 weeks, you cease to exist as far as the gov't is concerned.

Kinda makes people long for the good ole days when they were considered "just a number."  Now, they can't even say that.  This must feel a bit like being buried alive.  People are still thinking and breathing while the gov't is shoveling dirt over their body.  These are morbid times.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think we need to extend unemployment benes past 99 weeks. But if these people are still unemployed after 99 weeks, they should still be classified as unemployed, whether they receive benes or not. 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:56 | 1216896 SoNH80
SoNH80's picture

U.6 is the only official unemployment measure with any semblance to reality.  Welfare state for the money center banks expands = welfare state for the "little people" contracts.

 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:52 | 1217125 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I thought we were told that when the sit-on-your-lazy-ass-and-watch-TV money ran out these folks would go out and get a job?   Ooops.

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 00:53 | 1219296 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Are SNAP cards being used as currency?  Check your premises.

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 08:06 | 1219749 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You're scary.  We think too much alike.  I wanted to go there but wanted to keep the snotty remark more confined.   Thanks for expanding the idea.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:07 | 1216671 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

As they say in "divorce as in investing hope is the enemy."  Perhaps should Marx's "tragedy become farce" which is all i've been saying since I got here  "we get the re-marriage" as "the triumph of hope!"  enjoy!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:15 | 1216675 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Now is my time to troll!

Some people just wont look for a job until benefits run out.
Some people just refuse to take that mcjob until they have no choice. Some people think they are fighting the system by sitting on their ass collecting unemployment.

Everybody works. Nobody quits. If you do I will kill you myself.

Everybody hustling and pulling the wagon lightens the load on all of us serfs.

End unemoloyment benefits now. That would be a true green shoot.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:23 | 1216772 Quantum Nucleonics
Quantum Nucleonics's picture

Your thesis is actually well supported by academic research.  Many, many people just happen to find a job the week their unemployment expires.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 16:57 | 1217768 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

THANK YOU

CASE CLOSED, BITCHEZ.

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 00:53 | 1219300 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Dems what don't find a job, do they just start a starvation diet, or what?

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 05:06 | 1219507 Andre
Andre's picture

Are they the same academics as the ones on the "global warming" panels?

And what kind of jobs do they find? 7.25/hr? $13/hr, but 20 hour weeks?

All the support for this claim comes from PhD's. Just like Ben Benanke, Michael Mann, and a bunch of other grant whores. People with agendas and connections, and in some cases perhaps, tenure as well.

The real world is a little bit different.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:44 | 1216846 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Do women with big tits work?

Do Banksters work?

Does the bureaucrat/parasite/union thug class work?

Do the self-anointed chronic poor/section 8 housing volk work?

When work once again has some sane relation to wages, I will share your angst.  Until then, please target your wrath carefully.

 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:45 | 1216869 knowless
knowless's picture

go to craigslist, make an ad for a part time entry level service job, see how many applicants you get. results may vary.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:28 | 1216970 SME MOFO
SME MOFO's picture

Please wait for a site operator to respond.

You are now chatting with 'Gabbie'
Welcome to xxx, how may I help you?

p: Hi Gabbie

p: are you here

Gabbie: Hi P. How may I help you today?

p: i was just wondering when you were going to offer me a job

p: i made 15 winning trades in a row

Gabbie: I'm sorry, if you are interested in applying, you will need to contact our HR department and submit your resume

p: I made 15 winning trades in a row, don't you offer people a job when they do that?

Gabbie: We do not

p: how many in a row do i need to have?

Gabbie: We do not offer employment that way.  You would need to submit your resume

p: what would be on a resume that has more information than a statistically significant trading record?

Gabbie: A resume should include a summary of relevant job experience and education.  

p: what possible difference could that make if I can trade without making mistakes?

p: are you able to see my trading records from this year?

p: hello?

Gabbie: I apologize for the inconvenience, unfortunately I couldn't tell you for certain if it would even matter.  You are more than welcome to submit your resume to support@xxx.com, and it will be reviewed.

p: um, you aren't interested in hiring people who only make winning trades?

p: im confused, someone told me you try to hire people with 15 winning trades in a row

Gabbie: I am unsure who relayed that information but that is not the case. You will need to submit your information to the HR department

p: wait, it just occurred to me, you are in a customer service center in India, right?

p: Maybe they don;t tell you guys about that deal

Gabbie: We are located in the US

p: Um, but they always tell you guys to say that no matter where you are right?

Gabbie: Is there anything else you want to cover?

p: Are you able to see my trading records?

Gabbie: Yes, we can see them.  Trading records are not a primary consideration in hiring.  If you have any questions about your account let me know.

p: well, i was just wondering how many winning trades in a row i need to get a job, or is it a dollar amount i need to hit?

p: or maybe a percentage gain

p: oh, I just realized, are you using sharpe ratios to discount the trades?

p: so some trades don't count as much as others?

Gabbie: Neither.  Trading or trading gains are not a factor.  And we are not currently increasing the staff.  Also, your fifteen winning trades are all silver future purchases, so you aren't really exhibiting any real "strategy".

Gabbie: Congratulations on your trading gains.  We wish you continued good profits but this is not a hiring indicator.

p: maybe some of your losing traders can be let go to make a spot for me, I won't say anything

p: In fact, I can still trade from my house, nobody will ever know

Gabbie: Since we don't recommend trades for clients, your ability to trade has no bearing on your ability to provide client services.

Gabbie: And now that we have thoroughly covered this topic, please let me know if you have any actual questions regarding your account.  If not, I will sign off, and please have a good day

p: oh, someone told me you use customer trades to front run your own portfolio

p: i thought you need traders for that

Gabbie: If there is nothing else I will sign off now, thank you, and if you need anything else do not hesitate to click on Live Help.

Chat session has been terminated by the site operator.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:28 | 1217033 knukles
knukles's picture

Moments later an e-mail shows up in your in-box:

Dear Mr. P,
Thank you for your interest in Lehman Brothers.  At this time all applicantions are being redirected to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.  Please refer to www.http//usgov. dickuments/FEDup/IlovetheBernak/suspicious/maybe-sometimes-donotbendfoldspindleormutilate/:{, WTF?
Please read all 374 unacssociated instructional pages carefully before filing the applicaiton complete with your resume, which will need a notary public endorsement or signature guarantee from a solvent financial institution for consideration.
Sincerely,
Dick Fold

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:18 | 1216995 riley martini
riley martini's picture

 That job at McDonalds looks a lot better when one runs out of food . They now have their choice of PHD applicants. The service is outstanding but they still need the clown because the food is blah.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 19:32 | 1218385 DosZap
DosZap's picture

TCTroll,

They are fighting the system...................Welfare recips, DO NOTHING for the majority of their lives, draw checks and foodstamps for FREE.

The folks on UE at least PAID for the 99 weeks of UE or the majority of it, if their over 25yrs old.

The only folks who get something for nada from the US Gvt, are the truly disabled, and illegals, and people who are 4-6th Generation Welfare leeches,and the majority of governmet sector workers, who have  a job(position) we do not need , with an agency that should have never been formed to begin with.

Kik back, n' pass me anudder Big 40.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:12 | 1216687 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

What is wrong with silver today?  It would seem it would have everything going for it.  But it is nearly negative on the day.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:16 | 1216709 hambone
hambone's picture

There is a disturbance in the force -

10yr T's are flying out the door like 3.30% on a 10yr is a hot deal.  Dollar is a major turn or burn moment and reversal (even short lived) seems likely?  And here comes the bear attack on all PM's...

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:20 | 1216718 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

The troll grudgingly admitted all you silver bugs were right, which usually means you are wrong.

Oh....and dangertime capitulated....look out below!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:13 | 1216691 TraderMark
TraderMark's picture

Videos from Elizabeth Warren's appearance Tuesday on The Daily Show

 

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/04/videos-elizabeth-warren-on-daily...

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:46 | 1216860 Ricky Bobby
Ricky Bobby's picture

New Amerika - Bureaucrats as heroes and celebrities. Puke!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:13 | 1216692 wang
wang's picture

Submit your question to :

fastforward@Bloomberg.net

 

What would you ask Warren Buffet at this weekend's shareholder meeting.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:30 | 1217047 knukles
knukles's picture

Are you serving free food?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:44 | 1217083 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

Do you validate parking?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 16:44 | 1217682 SME MOFO
SME MOFO's picture

do you mind scratching that itch on my left nut?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 20:16 | 1218516 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

how does Moody's rate the Dagong Global Credit Rating Co.?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:15 | 1216701 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Just to re-state a point made many times before - the self employed, the contractors, etc can't file for unemployment benefits, which also suppresses the initial and continuing claims numbers.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:13 | 1216705 Sandy15
Sandy15's picture

Call Open Society Institute and tell Soros America is a REPUBLIC. We do not care to be part of is Open Society (Aka New World Order) 212-548-0600
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/america-is-gone-in-the-wrong-direction-george-sores-is-saving-america-with-his-time-treasure-from-our-political-debate-because-its-making-us-not-an-open-society/

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:13 | 1216706 DonnieD
DonnieD's picture

1st shoe to drop is running out of unemployment benefits. 2nd shoe is when the bank finally kicks you out of your house after not paying a mortgage for 2 years. That's a combined $3,000 a month hit for the average person. How are they going to make that up?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:23 | 1216750 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Through stock market gains (is Bernanke's hope)

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:20 | 1216728 Drag Racer
Drag Racer's picture

gotta luv Bloomberg...

Best Job Market for U.S. Grads Since 2008 Leading to Multiple Offers

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-28/best-job-market-for-u-s-graduat...

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:26 | 1216773 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

No question Benocide has stoked a mini dot-com redux bubble by pumping up the stock market, and no question this will end in heartbreak just like the last one, as the dubious business models like Groupon fail miserably.  Gotta love the capital misallocation Benocide has fostered.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 16:24 | 1217558 nufio
nufio's picture

also all the jobs are in tech and engineering.

which is 1:15 in the graduation statistics. all the communications, liberal arts, social sciences, psychology majors which account for > 50% of fresh graduates will compete for the 50k mcdonalds jobs.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:29 | 1216735 Bazooka
Bazooka's picture

Silver Logic:

Investors think Silver will go up if economy improves because demand for its use in electronics and jewelry will rise.

If Economy sinks, Investors see Silver going higher because demand for it as safe haven will rise.

AM I THE ONLY ONE SEEING THE LOONEY ON THIS TYPE OF HERD MENTALITY?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:10 | 1216955 riley martini
riley martini's picture

 Actually Silver buyers see the USD going down due to the Fascist in government rewarding fraud, corruption and theft in exchange for bribes . There is no sign of a return to Capitalism or a credible Justice Dept. that works for Capitalist Americans. Good luck with those shorts though but you might want to rethink that logic. I wish I was wrong but I don't see it.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 15:00 | 1217155 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Oh shit!

Bazooka hasnt capitulated.
May have bought ZSL too soon!

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 01:01 | 1219302 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

These "investors", do they ride unicorns?  Don't think there are very many "investors" here...

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:19 | 1216739 TomJoad
TomJoad's picture

I filed for unemployment last month even though it only pays 1/18th of what I was making before my job got outsourced to Brazil. I just want to make sure I do my part to keep the BLS numbers up. I have been contacted 4 times in two weeks by the state unemployment agency to jump through hoop after hoop after hoop: personal interviews, retraining assessment workshops, weekly work search verification meetings, etc..  It really isn't worth the headache and hassle to me to collect, since the amount in FL ($250 per week) doesn't make much of a dent in fixed expenses. I'll shall slog on though, just to ensure that the "Employment sector continues to show slight weakness."

 

Jump! You Bankster Fuckers!

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 00:26 | 1219255 Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

You were pulling down a deuce-and-a-quarter per year?  In Florida?  Doing what?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:24 | 1216761 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Hey look, the unemployed have all day to watch soap opera's and the Royal Wedding.

I know I shouldn't obsess, but the thought of that big horsey schlong taking the virgin Jewess back door..., what?  She's not that Jewish?  They were shacked up for a couple of years, so she's sure as hell not a virgin?  OK, next you're going to tell me the English Lard's know nothing of buggery, and I'll know you're daft!

 

                 *Ode to the Fairy Queen*

Oh, a Jewish Queene, has nevuh beene seen,

since William the Bastard slew Hank.

But if new Will were gay,

Wif da fwowers in May,

he could mawwy his twoo wuv, Bahney Fwank!

 

 Sarcasm too high for measurement.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:25 | 1216781 alexwest
alexwest's picture

###
Currently expectations for next Friday's NFP is 183k. I think the number will be 160k,
##

BLS says that 150.000 is FUCKING MARGIN OF ERROR..
so any asshole claiming that report will be 163 not 180 ths
IS COMPLETE IDIOT..

alx

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:25 | 1216783 alexwest
alexwest's picture

###
Currently expectations for next Friday's NFP is 183k. I think the number will be 160k,
##

BLS says that 150.000 is FUCKING MARGIN OF ERROR..
so any asshole claiming that report will be 163 not 180 ths
IS COMPLETE IDIOT..

alx

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:28 | 1216784 alexwest
alexwest's picture

###
Currently expectations for next Friday's NFP is 183k. I think the number will be 160k,
##

BLS says that 150.000 is FUCKING MARGIN OF ERROR..
so any asshole claiming that report will be 163 not 180 ths
IS COMPLETE IDIOT..

alx

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:25 | 1216786 alexwest
alexwest's picture

###
Currently expectations for next Friday's NFP is 183k. I think the number will be 160k,
##

BLS says that 150.000 is FUCKING MARGIN OF ERROR..
so any asshole claiming that report will be 163 not 180 ths
IS COMPLETE IDIOT..

alx

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:32 | 1216805 oogs66
oogs66's picture

the BLS margin for error is actually that they can understate actual job growth by 150,000.  At least according to any reporter they have NEVER overstated actual job growth

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 15:38 | 1217326 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I think you got your under/over backwards.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:46 | 1217092 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

That's almost as high as the margin for error in your keypunching technique.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 19:35 | 1218397 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Stutter much?

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:32 | 1216808 ml8ml8
ml8ml8's picture

ZH is actually having an impact.  Bernanke is getting tired of the rising tide of complainants claiming that he's over-goosing the economy monetarily.  Therefore, I expect there will be no QE3 before there is serious economic pain and every politician (except Ron Paul and his progeny) is absolutely begging for further monetary easing (in whatever form).  It's my own personal "Lehman" monetary theory.  The analogy works like this:  Treasury got so much criticism for bailing out Bear Stearns that, to avoid the pain of further criticism, they refused to bail out Lehman, a nearly exact replica of Bear.  (AIG not being an exact replica of Bear.)

QE2 has been effective enough and enough people are complaining about rising commodity costs (for example, the CEO of Wal-Mart), that the Fed will now let monetary policy well enough alone until further monetary stimulus is absolutely required, or until the Russell 2000 has fallen 40%, whichever comes first.

Here comes pain.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:49 | 1216871 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Quite possible, so this means PMs will dip ahead of the next QE.  To extend your hypothesis, since the dollar, as the world's reserve currency, will become an issue when it becomes clear that The Fed is still printing, we will really be in a tough spot.  I think we could survive with minimal pain if bondholders and banks were forced to take the haircuts now.  There is no way we can reasonably negotiate the loss of reserve status and the haircuts/default that are coming.  Even the well-off must recognize this.  PIMCO is certainly betting on this.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:31 | 1217053 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

I still wonder if, now that Bernanke owns a lot of their paper, one of the first steps will be to cut Fannie and Freddie loose, i.e. not backstop their debt and MBS anymore?  Now that the Chinese have bailed out of their paper and Bernanke has replaced them, a Fannie/Freddie default/haircut would simply allow that portion of their debt to be effectively monetized (i.e. Bernanke wouldbn't get back the money he printed to buy them), and would get that giant monkey off the back of the US.

I'm betting we will see this happen circa 2013.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:42 | 1217078 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

The troll has consistently said no qe3 until bernank sees the whites of deflations eyes. We got a deflation scare ahead of us to wring out the excess.

Fri, 04/29/2011 - 01:06 | 1219308 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

QE3 will occur, with or without a pause.  The Easy Money Users will howl for it or send The Bernank to Dealey Plaza!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:41 | 1216841 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Let there be pain!  Let there be pain!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 13:54 | 1216885 Hacksaw
Hacksaw's picture

nt

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:02 | 1216924 ThirdCoastSurfer
ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

This report is so bogus. 400k a week filing FIRST TIME unemployment benefits means that every 10 weeks 4 million have lost their job and we're way past 100 weeks at this point. of course losing your job creates a ripple effect on your life far beyond the loss of income. One small example, even if you get another job the next day, you will not qualify for credit of any kind for at least 6 months. No health care for 6 months, no 401k. No way you (or your spouse) qualify for a mortgage. 100 weeks at 400k a week = 40 million out of a working population of little more than 200 million or about 25%. 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 15:17 | 1217235 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

Untrue ThirdCoast Surfer.   If you were to find a job the next day in the same career field most banks look at that as a continuation of employment  EX: Human Resources Manager to Human Resources Manager.  Now if you changed to a zoo keeper then maybe you would be denied credit.   Health Insurance is usually available with your new employer anywhere from 30-90 days not six months and you will recieve a certificate of credible coverage from your previous employer according to the law(HIPAA) which means your new insurance must credit the past insurance and not consider anything as a preexisting condition.  401k no big deal save it in a IRA if you want the same tax break.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:03 | 1216935 voltaic
voltaic's picture

According to the latest BLS data, there are 1.9 million who have been out of work 99 weeks or longer, which is a record number. Only about 2/3 of all unemployed receive any beneifts. Only 25 states have 99 weeks of beneifts, so many stop receiving beneifts after 72-93 weeks. If someone is laid off today, the maximum number of weeks availabe is 60 and if someone is laid off this coming June, the maximum will be 46 weeks.

Repubs won't extend again, so millions more will suddenly be without benefits early next year. Some states are now cutting back on state unemployment beneifts form 26 to 20 weeks. In a very weak jobs environment, that will mean even more on food stamps, more in poverty, more foreclosures, more bankruptcies, etc. Not a pretty jobs picture going forward.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:03 | 1216941 Chuck Walla
Chuck Walla's picture

Why this is great news - for Obama! Those people are taken out of the count and Voila! UE is down. Its an Obama-nama- ding dong electoral miracle!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 15:33 | 1217299 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

All news is good news for Obama. There is no, I repeat no, downside for for The Chosen One.

He has an impeccable birth certificate.

His poll numbers are solid and and rising.

His re-election campaign has been kicked off with exceptional verve and that old energy of 2008.

Upward and onward to the Promised Land of a second term!

Just check with the AP, NYT, CBS, NBC, ABC or CNN for periodic updates.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 19:48 | 1218424 DosZap
DosZap's picture

That's the same lame assed BC they showed us a year ago.

I have never seen a BC from any where, that wasn't embossed with an Official seal(like a Notary), and/or a set of the child's footprints.

AND, we still have NO CLUE, how Barry traveled back and forth to a country on the NO FLY List with an American Passport.Also, even of he held a second Passport, he could not have done so, IF he were an American citizen.

And the POOR Me's on his Grandparents.........give me a break.

His mother was the First Female V.P. of a major bank, and his Grand Dad, was in the oil business.

You do not get into Harvard, or Yale without money, or knowing someone, or a scholarship because you are a super savant.

Pick one.

It's like Bill Clitton, claiming to be a Rhodes Scholar.................he was a Road Scholar.

Never finshed.

 

Either way, I do not give a crap if he is related to Pol Pot.

Damage is done.

 

 

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 15:38 | 1217304 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

x2

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:20 | 1217012 Sparrowhawk
Sparrowhawk's picture

Too bad if you're unemployed and would like to start a business...noone will lend to you.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 15:23 | 1217163 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Lend?  Lend!  Lend.   I've started/stopped half a dozen businesses with nobody's money but my own -- and not a lot at that.  The last business was begun with $500 cash and sold 3 years later netting me a monthly pay-out for 7 years.   It can be done with the help of family/friends/supporters and NO money from the pirates in banking.  Just offer a piece of the action for participation -- active participation, none of that "passive" crap.  If all they can do is mop floors and file papers, that's fine.  If your business is hare-brained you'll find out really quickly with no debt left over to remind you how stupid your idea was.  (Remind you of some student loans?)  And don't tell me about "growth" being impossible without OPM.   Growth comes naturally from having a business that supports its own growth.   Growth that comes from debt is all too often Franken-growth that is totally unnatural and cancerous.  It feeds on the profits of the original business model and gives the appearance only of being profitable.  (The preponderance of the "money on the sidelines" of U.S. corporations is borrowed money.)  Growth that comes from debt is fake since you are giving up what would be net profits to servicing debt.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 16:30 | 1217593 nufio
nufio's picture

non-service sector businesses would need more capital than available from friends and family.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 16:45 | 1217666 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Like what?  I've had real estate businesses and remodeling (residential and commercial) businesses, and currently a coin/stamp dealer business.   None of these required debt.   All the tools and vehicles needed can be had for nothing more than the same money it would take to have the same items for any home handyman.  Grow organically and give it time.   Time is the thing that Americans can't abide.   Deferred gratification is an honored trait no longer present in the U. S..   Gotta have my flat-screen TV now -- gotta have a high-profit margin business NOW.  Debt can be a valuable business asset but not in the hands of the average American so-called businessman.  Just as each employee must be seen as a profit center, debt must be seen as a TOOL of business, not its source.  Debt must not be seen as a source for the hammer, it must BE the hammer.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 16:45 | 1217701 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Thank you for the refreshing interlude of true entrepreneurialism. I mean it. I've had a number of businesses myself and never borrowed a nickel to get them off the ground. They either made money from the start or died on the vine.

We have been sold a pile of horse-shit that says you MUST borrow if you want to start a business. Pure BS.

A guy in my neighborhood hustles advertising for local businesses which he prints up and delivers door-to-door BY HIMSELF - no mail. The guy works hard AND lives in one of the best houses in the area. THAT is the American spirit. No loans, no workforce, just one guy with an idea doing it on his own.

I am in the same camp, except I do all my work online and have six diverse income streams. Others may make more than me, but none live better than me and I don't have to worry about being laid off.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:41 | 1217077 mhjhnsn
mhjhnsn's picture

With all sympathy for the unemployed, if you want to follow meaningful macro-level statistics just watch total private sector non-farm employment and hours worked, and calculate the ratio of hours worked per employed person.  You can also look at average compensation but those numbers are dirtier.

Do that and you won't get misled by all the mumbo-jumbo.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:42 | 1217079 goldnguns
goldnguns's picture

Feel for the honest losers of benefits.  But just left Sam's Discount Warehouse and the lady in front handed the clerk an Elec Bennies Card for a $133 tab.  The card had just under $100 left on it.  the lady pulls out a roll of HUNDREDS, peels thru it to find a 20, then thru a stack of 20s to find a couple of tens.  had to be at least $1500. 

 

"Your tax dollars hard at work".  And yes, she thinks life is full of Hopium and Changium.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:57 | 1217137 pazmaker
pazmaker's picture

goldnguns...don't hate the player hate the game!

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:59 | 1217152 LFMayor
LFMayor's picture

You should have jacked that bitch up in the parking lot, got your tax return early.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 14:56 | 1217141 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

...well, now those increasing gun sales reported yesterday begin to make sense....at least some U.S. consumers are using their heads....I alo see Walmart getting back into that business in a big way.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 20:02 | 1218455 DosZap
DosZap's picture

I alo see Walmart getting back into that business in a big way.

 

Selling weapons?, have you seen any STOCKING them?.

The Arkansas connection stopped that bitch when the Clittons where the Fascists.

Or, are you just THINKING they will get back in it?.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 15:56 | 1217414 gwar5
gwar5's picture

More unemployed is devastating -- fewer paying taxes and more needing government assistance.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 16:12 | 1217499 monopoly
monopoly's picture

Not so sure about the herd mentality but just about everyone I blog with advised top is in and silver goes bust, very soon. Something about most thinking one way. Silver just catching up to a normal price ref: gold. This is not rocket science. Maybe too fast but a major dump. My money says Not.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 16:20 | 1217553 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

There will no doubt be dips, so btfd's. With as many forces working to keep silver prices low I'm kind of amazed it's been able to move up towards where it should be so fast.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 16:53 | 1217752 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Two quick anecdotes on the unemployed.

1. Guy was working at Wal-Mart, making crap, got his hours cut to shreds (from 33 to 8) and went to work for Manpower or something like that. Never even thought about UI. Will probably be OK.

2. Guy has masters in computer science, laid off 3 years ago, collected 99 weeks, still no job 1 year later. Has big mortgage (probably underwater but won't admit it) and is getting close to retirement age - about 8 years off. Money is stocks or cash equivalents, but has only recently thought about starting own business or taking a "regular" job. I'm a bit concerned about him.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 17:09 | 1217861 dexter_morgan
dexter_morgan's picture

And, like a friend of mine, unless he's been increasing his knowledge and keeping up with the field, his skill will have deteriorated making him a less attractive candidate. Welcome to the Banksters America.

Thu, 04/28/2011 - 18:57 | 1218293 sellstop
sellstop's picture

There has been a good bid in the TLT lately. I see an inverse H&H on the daily, with the right side shoulder higher than the left. Neckline just above where we are now.

I have been seeing a lot of individual stocks that have what appears to be distribution over the last couple months. Including many of the natural resource stocks.

And I would have to conclude that there is a massive short interest in the USDollar, with the possibility of a violent countertrend rally at any time.

I just can't get myself to stay long the indexes lately. And got a little short the S@P today. Tops are a process and it seems to me that stocks have been trying to top out for some time now. Maybe wrong. It is all in the timing and I'm probably early.

OH, I almost forgot. I got short silver again. Made a little on the last shorts, made some  on the long side early today, short a little again...

Yours Trolly,

gh

gh

 

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