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One Minute Macro Update

Tyler Durden's picture


US:  Futures higher in the early morning as the market rings in the New Year.  With today's data featuring the ISM readings for December, expectations are high for the start of 2011.  The week ahead will likely be bolstered by a slew of economic data that should serve to feed the positive tone, however we caution that the risks to the global economy remain high.

Europe:  London closed and eyes return to the periphery with issuance scheduled this week from France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Malta, Germany and Portugal.  We believe the European debt story will continue to accelerate in 2011 and that a true fiscal union combined with haircuts will be the ultimate solution.  We also note that with US QE2 priced in (and before the inevitable QE3), the divergence between the EUR and European sovereign credit is unsustainable.
Asia:  China December manufacturing PMI fell to 53.9 from a November 55.2 reading.  The slowdown here will continue as tighter policy takes hold and extremely high levels of new loan growth are dampened.

Via Brian Yelvington of Knight Capital


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Mon, 01/03/2011 - 08:48 | Link to Comment spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

looks like gordon brown was 10 years before his time: helicopter ben's new "putting an end to boom and bust" era is going full steam ahead.


keep buying the fucking dip you fucking sheep!

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 08:54 | Link to Comment pat53
pat53's picture

Like I've said, ad nauseum, SPX will get to 1400 this year easily and the Dow to 13,000. Why people try to fight this is amazing. You will get KILLED trying to short this market.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 08:59 | Link to Comment spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

as long as china maintains the flow of borrowed prosperity (i.e. manufactured goods for cash they can buy gold with), and the ben bernank maintains the flow of cash (from his helicopter), then you are right. 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:07 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Great, another expert opinon.  Are you a member of the FMOC?  No?  Then you have no clue and neither does anyone else without a ticket to the party. 

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 11:25 | Link to Comment spiral_eyes
spiral_eyes's picture

the fmoc doesn't even define america's monetary policy; they define the monetary base. commercial banks define monetary policy, which is very democratic (!)


blankfein, dimon, etc will never allow deflation in america because it will immediately destroy all the debt they own. they'd rather some of their principle was inflated away than see mass defaults. the most important monetary chart of the last 60 years:


clearly shows that since the adoption of the "paper" standard every "crash" has been inflated away, riding on the buoyancy of cheap chinese goods.


eventually china wanna decouple and send america into chinese receivership, but for now they will not allow a dollar collapse until they've squeezed every last ounce of gold, miners, oil & infrastructure out of their dollar pile. 


if you wanna be short (in dollar-denominated short etfs, or whatever), then enjoy losing your money as bernanke flood-prints the way to "growth". at least if you own the upside all you lose is the inflation. precious metals, mining stocks, oil stocks are best of all as they all have a very rich wannabe acquisitor: the chinese central bank.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:04 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

So, between Friday and this morning, things have gotten better?

I knew last night that they'd shove in a triple digit opening bell.  I've seen this fucking act so many times that it's sickening.

The 'optimism' is so forced that they are literally going to jam it down your neck.

Futures now at +97, of course.  ISM will be a fucking joke.

Whatever.  Truly, whatever.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:25 | Link to Comment pat53
pat53's picture

Everyone has a ticket to the party. Go ahead and use it. The fact is that the permabears who have listened to all the dire and apocolyptic predictions for the last 2 years have been DECIMATED. They are completely clueless and refuse to accept that the market will keep going higher, and they will continue to get hammered. Keep shorting morons, I'll gladly take your funds, easy money !!  LOL

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:37 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Does my 3 year old have a ticket to the 'party'?  Furthermore, the 'permabulls' have also been declaring precious metals as the best investment.  So, how did that work out, moron?  If your shorting equities and buying PM, then you're doing fine.

You're part of Cramerica, aren't you?  Everytime I think to myself "why are they pumping this so hard and obvious", I run into someone like you.  It answers itself...because there are literally shitloads of people like you in the world.  You are ignorant but happy and, of course, cock sure.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 10:24 | Link to Comment taraxias
taraxias's picture

It took them 2 years to get DECIMATED. Unfortunately you will be DECIMATED in a matter of days, if not hours. And the irony will be that you'd still be buying the dip looking for "easy money" at the same time all your wealth evaporates in front of your eyes.

Count on it.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 12:08 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

We'll make sure to print this on your forehead indelibly after you jump from the 20th floor.

There's you at 1075...and at 800...splat.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:11 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Follow the tape.

Watch the cyclicals, retail, banks.

It really hasn't been that difficult the last few months.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:12 | Link to Comment AlienTrader
AlienTrader's picture

No matter what the reason is, improving economy, money printing, FED intervention, etc, the market had one clear trend this last 2 years, UP. Shorting this market on elaborated bearish scenarios that have no confirmation in the market movement, is just stubbornly pissing against the wind. The time to be short will come, but not yet.


Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:36 | Link to Comment cosmictrainwreck
cosmictrainwreck's picture

yeah, but I like to piss into the wind....freaks people out

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 10:31 | Link to Comment AlienTrader
AlienTrader's picture

be sure you're not wearing your good pants while doing it.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 10:28 | Link to Comment taraxias
taraxias's picture

When the time comes if you don't have short positions open already it would be too late to get in. It won't be orderly for all the "wise guys" who drunk the cool-aide and profited from the Bernanke put to also profit on the way down. And way down we will see, rest assured.....

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 10:39 | Link to Comment AlienTrader
AlienTrader's picture

I would not worry about that. When the trend finally turns, there will be several good opportunities to go short, just like in 2008.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 09:53 | Link to Comment More_sellers_th...
More_sellers_than_buyers's picture

Everything UP! Gold Oil Bonds Dolar Euro Stocks Asia ...just buy everything...yea this makes sense!... Fuck it ...Im giving my shorts till the end of the week...then Im covering...Im gonna take my bat and ball and go home... I'll take whatever remains of my capital and spend it all on hookers and 8 balls, because when inflation hits at least i'll have some good memories...cheers all

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 10:22 | Link to Comment nudedude
nudedude's picture

Thanks in part to Zero Cred I have been a perma bear and gotton killed. ZC is grasping at anything now, becoming a little pathetic.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 10:30 | Link to Comment taraxias
taraxias's picture

I'll take this post as a counter-indicator that it's time to go short. What's pathetic is the bullish sentiment on here STRICTLY based on the belief that TheBernank would never allow the market to drop. He will. Why? Because he'll have no choice.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 11:01 | Link to Comment kalasend
kalasend's picture

Try and time your shorts. Good luck

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 10:39 | Link to Comment Boilermaker
Boilermaker's picture

Really?  I thought the dominant 'advice' was to avoid the equity markets and buy precious metals.

Mon, 01/03/2011 - 12:18 | Link to Comment snowball777
snowball777's picture

Exactly. If you got reamed, it was because you didn't pay attention.

I can thank ZH for saving me multiple commas with timely news about FX shifts, what bonds will and won't get POMO'd, and explanations of common market aberrations like the COMEX options expiration dance.


Mon, 01/03/2011 - 17:34 | Link to Comment Djirk
Djirk's picture

On a side note, there was an add for Meta Trader on the sidebar...At first glance my mind read Melta Trader...guess I have been reading ZH for too long...the melt up lives on

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