One Minute Macro Update

Tyler Durden's picture

U.S.: Markets positive this morning as the rise in oil
simmered and emerging markets posted gains. World food prices met a new high in
the latest U.N. report as it seems that the U.S. continues to export inflation.
The Fed’s Beige Book released yesterday was optimistic and similar to
January’s, with nearly all of the reporting regional banks citing growth in
retail and manufacturing despite evidence of rising pressure on prices. Initial
jobless claims data today 395K Expected and given last week’s large drop and fairly
consistent weather, the release  should
be on par with last week’s 391K. Fed Chairman Bernanke spoke to House of
Representatives yesterday in day two of his Humphrey Hawkins speech, again
expressing dissatisfaction with the labor market, confidence in the battle
against inflation and concern for America’s fiscal policy. Bernanke’s two days
of speeches to Congress showed a conviction to keep short term interest rates
low until unemployment levels recovered. Although recent releases show a modest
rebound in labor, it may not be enough to push interest rates up as current
estimates for 2012 unemployment reach 7.5 to 8.0%.

Europe: Divergence building between high beta periphery
and core CDS, with Portugal, Ireland and Greece moving wider while the rest of
Europe is tighter off of news of a potential CDS ban (please see our note
yesterday for more information on the growing divergence).  ECB keeps rates unchanged, despite recent
hawkish comments from various ECB council members. Euro zone preliminary 4Q10 GDP
was +0.3% QoQ v +0.3% prior and +2.0% YoY v +2.0% prior. PMI Services for the
U.K. fell to 52.6 from 54.5 in January, contrasting the strong data for
construction and manufacturing released this week. Considering the U.K.
economy’s dependence on the service sector, the likelihood of expansion for the
country seems dimmer. PMI Services for Germany came in at 58.6 v 59.5E, Italy
came in at 53.1 v 51.1E, and France came in at 59.7 v 50.8E. Although most
market estimates were missed, it is important to note that a release above 50
indicates growth. Demand picked up in Spain’s most recent bond auction, selling
€1.15bn in 3Y at 3.592% v 2.88% prior with b/c at 3.04x v 2.76x prior and
€2.65bn in 5Y at 4.389% v 4.542% prior with b/c at 2.17x v 2.1x prior.

Asia: Chinese non-manufacturing PMI came in at 44.1, a
significant decrease from January’s 56.4. Australian trade surplus fell in
January to 1.88bn from 1.98bn, but still came in well ahead of market
expectations at 1.55bn despite flood damage. Building approvals in Australia
fell 15.9% MoM v estimates of a 3.3% decrease.


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lbrecken's picture

    so i wake up and was about to east some mini wheats
    i happen to stumble upon a box i bought a few months back .....
    it was 18 oz
    the NEW box i just bought for same price was 15.8 oz
    thats a 10% increase in price!  F U Big Ben.......

Zero Govt's picture

a box of Golden McNuggets has also increased from $240 to $1,400 per 1 Oz pack since 2000 as well.... and Silver Surfer Sugar-Puffs are even more inflationary!!!!

...we know Benny the Bean wants 2% inflation but what's his target on wage growth to keep up with his suicide socialism central planning for the economy???



johnQpublic's picture

they are also now 500% more crunchy than ever before

99er's picture


A one, a two and a one two three.


Boilermaker's picture

It's not 'core' inflation.  Now go get your shine box!

MiningJunkie's picture

This why you absolutely cannot be SHORT stocks - when the presses are on overdrive, the replacement value can only be HIGHER.

BTFD until policy changes - the last populace to revolt against the inflationary spiral is in the U.S. of A. - when that starts, policy will shift.


FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

The Baltic Dry never made it to triple digits then...

... it looks like it is painted the same as all the other 'markets' (aka FED controlled barometers).

MrBoompi's picture

I don't read the reports so I wonder what it means when there is "growth in retail and manufacturing". Are these numbers total sales or net profit? I run a small business. I have to raise prices because my costs are rising. This translates into increased sales, but unless I end up with more money in my pocket I wouldn't call it growth. And even if I did end up with more money in my pocket, if it didn't outpace the inflation rate I'm behind not ahead.

Inflation is not growth, even though some profit from it more than others.

johnQpublic's picture

current estimates for 2012 unemployment reach 7.5 to 8.0%


you misplaced decimal point

should read 75-80%

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