One Minute Macro Update - And Then There’s The Middle East

Tyler Durden's picture

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hugovanderbubble's picture

Who cares 8% 10 Portuguese Yield and EURUSD at 1.39´s¡¡¡¡




Sell Spain till HairCuts and IMF aid appears to Exterminate the Real Estate Loan Losses -

TexDenim's picture

Bahrain is the place to watch. It is a huge fuck-up which should not have happened. Martial law declared this morning, and this is a region that was as stable as Connecticut. Not good.

JR's picture

EXCERPT from Why U.S. Treasury Bonds Are No Longer the Interest Rate Market Bellwether | The Market Oracle | March 15, 2011

Shah Gilani writes:

Forget about watching the Fed Funds Rate now. That central bank benchmark has ranged between 0.00% and 0.25% for a couple of years now. Going forward, it's not going to be an indicator of interest-rate movement, because it's not going to change much.

Sure the Fed wants it there. But more to the point, the Fed Funds Rate remains in that range because all the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) banks like Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) and Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) are far bigger now, are lending less, and have huge excess reserves on which they'd love to earn an overnight profit. So for now and for the foreseeable future, they'll be plenty to lend between giant "TBTF" club members.

And thanks to its "quantitative-easing" (QE) strategy, the Fed is essentially monetizing the U.S. Treasury's debt by buying in the secondary market from primary dealers like Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) the equivalent of every new issue that comes to market.

The net result: There's no real gauge of demand because the Federal Reserve has hijacked the free market.

The New Bellwether
Tens of trillions of dollars are invested in the U.S. bond markets.

And - for as long as anyone can remember - the Fed, U.S. Treasury bonds and the Treasury yield curve were the bellwethers of where interest rates were headed. That's why investors watched those indicators so closely.

But they are bellwethers no more. With the $2.9 trillion market for municipal bonds now buffeted by pension, deficit, tax and potential state bankruptcy woes, it's the direction of muniyields and shape of the muni yield curve that investors should be watching to divine the future direction of interest rates.

To divine the direction of interest rates - and stay ahead of the curve - watch the muni-bond market by watching the iShares S&P National AMT-Free Muni Bond Exchange-Traded Fund (NYSE: MUB).

Read more


LongSoupLine's picture

Nikkei futures are down hard.

Meme Iamfurst's picture

The Idea of American and European governments that if "WE do nothing to help the Libyan rebels the rest of the East will quiet down"  IS NOT WORKING.

As I wrote last Friday, if the US and Europeans do not act by (last) Monday, the cause will likely be lost and the Christian countries will be held accountable.  It is 30 seconds to midnight....

Well, guess what...they didn't act, and the West is going to pay the price for decades of propping up these corrupt governments.  Arabs are not as stupid as this nation likes to believe.  The Arabs see our holy-er-than-thou and democracy rhetoric is just a load of crap to hid our greater interests.

They won't forget this abandment...and the big mouth empty promisses of miss Hillery.

ivana's picture

According to this page

Japanese bonds yields are rising again strong at short end ( SHOWN 2Y-5Y-10Y)

  0.24 +5.8%    0.52 +1.8%    1.23


onarga74's picture

Those numbers just out are telling...Stagflation  Housing starts miserable and food prices up I don't think we need Japan today.  This is pretty ugly.  No doubt about it Bennie screwed up and we're gonna get more...

ivars's picture

Excuse me for repeating these graphs, but they show remarkable accuracy 1,5 months after being drawn:


More reasons to validate the actual results of DJIA and oil prices vs. these February 6th predictions- the drop in stocks will continue as Oil will eat away all QE effect and flight for safety will keep USD high-there is a slight hiccup in June perhaps by QE3. But it won't last long because of rising oil prices.


The DJIA graph actually accurately predicts todays DJIA value, 1,5 months ahead, so the average slope of decay from market top February 18-June 2011 is accurate as well: