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One Minute Macro Update: Bated Breath for Labor Data

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Overview: Markets in positive territory this morning in anticipation of U.S. employment figures estimated to show an improving labor market.

U.S.: Hawkish comments out of the Fed yesterday as the Minneapolis Fed President said that the Fed could increase rates by the end of this year, way before market expectations. The Richmond Fed President also called for a decrease in QE2. Estimates for March payroll figures due out today show declines with nonfarm at +190KE v +192K prior, private at +210KE v 222Kprior and manufacturing at 30KE v 33K prior. The unemployment rate will be released morning, with markets expecting no change from February’s 8.9%. Although jobless claims and ADP data were disappointing earlier this week, the releases still kept in line with encouraging trends, so expect today’s labor market data to follow. We think the risk is to the upside with jobs numbers, but the unemployment percentage read is difficult to say as it has dropped on lack of labor force participation versus true gains. ISM numbers out this morning should stay close in line with the developing recovery in the manufacturing sector: 61.0E v 61.4 prior. ISM Prices Paid is estimated to rise to 82.9E v 82.0 prior as prices creep up globally. Also out today is construction spending: -0.2% E MoM v -0.7% prior.

Europe: Ireland’s bank stress tests yesterday showed its four largest banks are in need of €24B in capital. The government has created a restructuring plan which involves a combining two of the lenders together. Along with €46.3B already injected into the Irish financial sector and €30B spent on banks’ property loans, the Irish financial sector has cost an amount that is about two-thirds of the Irish economy. Portuguese financing remains at unsustainable levels with its latest auction of €1.645B in 2Y bonds at 5.793% v 3.519% prior with b/c at 1.4x v 2.3x. Yesterday, the country’s president announced snap elections for June 5 and it appears that the temporary government in place until then cannot authorize a bailout. Portugal will hold another auction today for €1.5B in 1Y bonds. Euro zone February unemployment reached 9.9% v 10.0% prior (revised up from 9.9%), reaching a fourteen month low. Final PMI manufacturing data for March also out today for much of Europe, starting off with the Euro zone at 57.5 v 57.7E and 57.7 prior. PMI Manufacturing numbers mostly missed expectations with 56.2 v 58.0 E in Italy, 55.4 v 56.6 E in France, 60.9 v 60.9 E in Germany, and 57.1 v 60.9 E in the U.K.

Asia: Chinese PMI in manufacturing rose to 53.4 v 52.2 prior. A PBoC official yesterday recommended doubling the reserve requirement ratio up to 100bps as an anti-inflationary measure. Indonesia saw inflation increase 6.65% YoY v 6.99%E, up from 6.84% prior, with core inflation picking up 4.45% YoY v 4.36% prior. Indonesia also saw exports rise 28.9% YoY in February v a revised up 26.0% prior. Thai inflation also picked up with CPI growing 3.14% YoY v 3.10%E. Thailand’s foreign reserves held approximately steady to $181.5B v $182.1B prior, and its holdings of forward contracts increased to $20.8B v $20.0B prior. Indian exports grew 49.7% YoY in February v 32.4% prior and imports grew 21.2% v 13.1% prior. Vehicle sales in Japan dropped sharply in March, down 37.0% v -14.0% prior, as the earthquake hurt an already struggling market. The Tankan manufacturing index out yesterday showed an improving manufacturing sector in Japan just before March’s earthquake and tsunami.

 

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Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:00 | 1124411 Robslob
Robslob's picture

and....who cares...all the "data" are lies same as the belief that the fiat money you are making / losing is actually worth something...

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:03 | 1124422 Gold Dog
Gold Dog's picture

Just keep QE going....some of us ARE drinking the fiat Kool-Aid to get PM loot!!

 

Dog

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:12 | 1124436 digitlman
digitlman's picture

"Baited" breath.

Not "bated"

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:30 | 1125621 Sisyphus
Sisyphus's picture

Public school?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:17 | 1124444 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Exactly...who cares?  Answer:  criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers that, instead of going bust and not being here today to wildly bid up equities based on Ponzified stupidity and lies, are amongst us and supposedly leading the way to prosperity.

Enter Ben Bernanke, the great criminal bailout king, and the incompetent Obama administration and its Marxist job accounting regime, and you have pure bliss...despite the fact that the Middle East is in flames and about to rise up against the US and it oil needs, Tokyo being one wind shift away from complete Armageddon, the US Federal government perches one political tizzy fit away from default, European banks already in Bond Haircut City...all while the absolutely zerocred MSM joyfully prepares for just enough of a fake jobs number [that will NOT be large enough to even account for population growth] to raise stock prices that, based on volume, only one mentally retarded algorithm in the room next to where Duncan Niederauer takes his afternoon dump is still buying because it is too dumb to turn itself off.

So...let's rumba baby...and make a little Netflix nanosecond trade and call it GDP!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:18 | 1124451 digitlman
digitlman's picture

Fucking. Brilliant.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:18 | 1124446 99er
Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:20 | 1124458 connda
connda's picture

Expect talk about raising interest rates and ending QE.  Commodities and hard assets get pushed back -20% (or more) going into June.  Then -- suprise!!! QE3.

Back up the truck and BTFD...

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 08:34 | 1124462 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

3 months 14 days and counting down (+ or - 4 days)

Feeding Pearls to pigs is expensive and the pigs are never thankful.

As an explanation - the books close in the places that matter on 31 June. 14 days before they will know the damage from March and they will capitulate, in that the print can never cover the facts they see baked in.

Just a hunch but a calculated one

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 09:32 | 1124786 connda
connda's picture

+1

With you on that...

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