One Minute Macro Update: I Don't Wanna Pay

Tyler Durden's picture

Overview: Markets positive again this morning amid better than expected corporate profits while the debt crisis in Europe intensifies.

U.S.: The Fed announced yesterday that Bernanke will hold four press briefings a year to improve transparency and explain its decisions to the public. The first two sessions will be in April and June and will likely focus on providing clarity on QE2. Today will see the release of GDP estimated at 3.0% QoQ v 2.8% prior. Despite strong ISMs, it appears that the risk is to the downside with respect to other data, including yesterday’s disappointing Durable Goods and Capital Goods results. Weekly Jobless Claims continue to trend stronger. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence also comes this morning: 68.0E v 68.2 prior.

Europe: German pressure pushed EU leaders to cut the amount of initial startup capital for the EFSF/ESM in 2013 from €40B to €16B, reducing Germany’s burden in the rescue mechanism. Politics at home are compounded by politics in meetings for both payer and payee countries. While the effectiveness of the fund wavered during yesterday’s EU summit, Portuguese yields continued to grow. S&P downgraded Portugal two notches to BBB and left the country on negative watch. Fitch downgraded two notches to A- also leaving the rating on negative watch. Both agencies cited the uncertainty in the area and the governmental changes in their reasoning for downgrades. Two IMF officials reported that members are discussing the use of a crisis lending pool, which will come out of the organization’s $583B credit line. The next round of German regional elections will take place on Sunday in Baden-Rhineland, which may show a further loss of control for Merkel. Austrian industrial production in January grew 8.4% YoY v 2.8% prior. French GDP grew in line with estimates, expanding 0.4% QoQ v 0.3%E and 1.5% YoY v 1.5%E in 4Q10. The March IFO survey for Germany reported a score of 111.1 v revised 111.3 prior for the business climate, 115.8 v revised 114.8 prior for the current assessment, and 106.5 v 107.9 for expectations. Italian retail sales came in at -0.3% MoM v 0.2% prior and -1.2% YoY v 0.4% prior in January.

Asia: A report from Japan’s finance ministry today showed that Japanese purchases of foreign assets was greater than sales by $3.6B during the days immediately after the earthquake, revealing that repatriation did not drive the yen’s recent spike. Singapore industrial production grew 4.8% YoY in February v revised 11.0%.

From Brian Yelvington of Knight Capital

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Racer's picture

As usual US futures stuck near the highs while EU and UK take advantage and sell off

tom a taxpayer's picture

"The Fed announced yesterday that Bernanke will hold four press briefings a year to improve transparency and explain its decisions to the public. The first two sessions will be in April and June". Bernanke's first session will be on April Fools Day.

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

I can hear Ben now... 'while inflation expectations remain low'... LOL

Four time a year??? Ben's equivalent to 'hitting the campaign trail'??? Is he in that much doo doo??? Must be...

mdwagner's picture

He should hire the Iraqi Information Minister to do it for him.

InconvenientCounterParty's picture

If you are experiencing congnitive dissonance right now, you are thinking how odd is it that the Fed wants to increase transparency when they are usually very secretive?

Just consider that the Fed has plan A, B and C. Sometimes all cooking in parallel. BB and his crew of sophists have utter contempt for the worker class, and politicians and all those that are incapable of understanding the Fed's "unique challenges".

They won't hesitate to create various "trojan horse" memes to distract from their true intentions. The transparency efforts are the delivery channel. I expect their credibility will drop below Goldman sux, which is hard to imagine. Pay attention to the cognitive dissonance.

UGrev's picture

Is this the part in the death process where they tell the party which is dying that they're going to be ok? or are we past that part?

dcb's picture

sorry for the language, but at times it is appropriate. Fuck Bernanke, I have seen him get it wrong over and over so many times during the crisis it makes me puke. Just recently he testified before the senate  or congress that the dollar hit the low for the year.

I can;t sy what I think should happen to him and his cabal, cause I'd get arrested.

A Man without Qualities's picture

Bernanke's neither smart enough nor strong enough to fix the underlying problems, which is exactly why they chose him.  Now, he's suffering from Stockholm Syndrome.

lynnybee's picture

& I'm too scared to mention ROBERT RUBIN'S name toooo much for fear they'll come after me !!!   damn s.o.b. bankster !    throw him in the slammer !

augie's picture

so, is transparancy now synonimous with propoganda?

I'm about do for a two-minute-hate right about now.

firstdivision's picture

With that GDP number, I wonder if those that are still betting on QE3 are questioning their strategy. 

Spalding_Smailes's picture

Correct. Many people betting on QE 3 will be wrong ...


WASHINGTON, D.C. – March 24, 2011 – The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported rail traffic gains for the week ending March 19, 2011, with U.S. railroads originating 293,772 carloads, up 2.3 percent compared with the same week last year. Intermodal volume for the week was also up, totaling 222,788 trailers and containers, up 10.7 percent compared with the same week in 2010. For the first 11 weeks of 2011, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 3,168,141 carloads, up 5.3 percent from last year, and 2,398,885 trailers and containers, up 8.1 percent from the same point in 2010.

Combined North American rail volume for the first 11 weeks of 2011 on 13 reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads totaled 4,103,782 carloads, up 4.1 percent compared with the same point last year, and 2,972,689 trailers and containers, up 7.2 percent compared with last year.

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Why are the railroads carrying more stuff? What are they carrying more of?

A Man without Qualities's picture

In the dying days of the Soviet Union, first they just shipped the goods from one warehouse to another, and then they just shipped empty crates...

Ben Fleeced's picture


I watch the same cars, by #, go East and then West.

Love the Choo Choos.

snowball777's picture

It's more of a "no place to go but up" situation...note this report from ealy 2008...

Carload freight in the week ended April 12 totaled 329,508 cars, down 2.9 percent from last year.

Racer's picture

"Fed's Fisher says there are signs that liquidity not just abundant but in excess"

Yes for the rich 1% and the PDs, for the rest... not at all

firstdivision's picture

I'll be quite liquid tomorrow midmorning when I wake up from tonights binge

quo vadis's picture

"Bernanke will hold four press briefings a year to improve transparency and explain its decisions to the public."

The truth is we need to hear from The Bernank far more than from The President. Is there a better proof of just exactly where is the real power that we're beholden to in the U.S.?

snowball777's picture

You need to be lied to? Repeatedly?!