This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
One of These Things is Not Like the Other...
One of these things is not like the other...
The trends below bear watching as they
served as important leading indicator of things to come in 2008. Kinks
in the reflation trade were visible at the time despite CPI spiking
higher through H1-08. Coincidentally, we expect increasing CPI prints
through H1-10 as well. But recent kinks look eerily similar to the
deteriorating internals ignored by so many ahead of the Great
Contraction. Is the market beginning to sniff out heightened
deflationary pressures later in 2010 or 2011? Time will tell, but given
excessive valuations and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty in the
aftermath of crisis, we are quite happy to take some risk off the table
here, given the trends below.
Disclosure: At the time of publication, the author was long SPDR
Gold Shares and short iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index, although
positions may change at any time.
»
- advertisements -
DOW / SP500 downtrend on the daily chart continues.
The recent equities counter trend rally has finished and the March 2009 bear market rally is over.
The dollar, crude oil and copper charts have been giving bearish warnings for stocks for months.
DOW / SP500 downtrend commenced as forecast and the USD rally I forecast several months ago is just getting going.
My indicators can identify trend changes before they occur.
They warned me of an impending market crash back in early *2007*
The uptrend since March 2009 has been a bear market rally contained within a much larger bear cycle that started in 2000.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
Sesame street! A little different from Walled St...
BTW the graphs do not enlarge.
Your GDX:Gold chart should be adjusted. That bubble on the left side needs to be moved over just a bit, to reflect that sharp dip from the ratio did not recover. The volume is linked to the second half of the ratio, right?
But to answer the puzzle the USD chart doesn't look the same. Which means what? My favorite chart is to superimpose the 2008 INDU rally into the highs, with the current chart, for duration, and the slope. But that shouldn't really surprise anyone, we put Humpty Dumpty back together again, he's going to fall down again.
Great charts.
We divide things by gold to snort out the
truffles.
Of course the Big D is here, galloping defaults
by any other name...
http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/