The One You've All Been Waiting For: Heeeeeeere's Joe LaVorgna

Tyler Durden's picture

Joe LaVorgna, who yesterday raised his NFP estimate from 100,000 to 175,000 was off only by a factor of 972% (and who can forget his 300,000 NFP forecast from last month two days before the final number ended up being a revised 25,000). Here is his, uh, "explanation."

There was very little positive news in the June employment report as job gains were paltry, the unemployment rate rose, the work week declined and average hourly earnings were unchanged. Headline payrolls rose just +18k following downward revisions to the prior two months: April was lowered to +217k from +232k and May was reduced to +25k from +54k as previously reported. The weakness was broad?based within the underlying categories. In the goods sector, construction shed ?9k jobs versus ?4k previously and manufacturing rose just +6k compared to ?2k in May. Private service?sector hiring also slowed significantly (+53k vs. +70k previously), as net layoffs occurred in financial services (?15k vs. +14k), temp workers (?12k vs. ?2k) and auto dealerships (?1k vs. +4k). Government layoffs continued (?39k vs. ?48k).

The unemployment rate backed up another tenth to 9.2% as household unemployment was unchanged but household employment declined by ?445k (vs. +105k previously). The length of the workweek declined a tenth to 34.3 hours and average hourly earnings were unchanged in the month. We are hard pressed to find any redeeming qualities of this report, which did not reflect the improvement in the manufacturing ISM or the ADP data. If the soft?patch in hiring does not improve in July, the outlook for second half of the year will diminish.

But, but, but Joe.... This is not at all what you predicted yesterday:

As we warned in yesterday’s note, our June payroll forecast was susceptible to revision pending the results of the ADP report given the recent improvement in that series’ forecasting track record. The ADP results were much better than expected, so we are raising our payroll forecast. ADP employment rose by +157k in June following a modest downward revision (-2k) to May. Over the last four months, the average miss on ADP has been just 43k, but these misses have all been in the same direction, to the low side. Thus, if we assume a similar forecast miss, this is consistent with a 200k increase in private payrolls. With the public sector shedding on average -25k jobs per month, headline nonfarm payrolls should come in at +175k. Previously, we were forecasting +100k. Our forecast of a one tenth decline in the unemployment rate (to 9.0%) remains intact.

Joe: please, tell us... We beg you... What is the secret? How do you have the absolutely worst forecasting record in the history of Wall Street and still keep your job? How do you do it? If you trademark it you would make gobs more money than using the excel goalseek function month after month with results so wrong that it boggles the mind.


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johngaltfla's picture

Just remember when Bear Stearns collapsed he said on Bubblevision that we weren't in a recession nor heading towards one.

3 months after it had already started....

Mercury's picture

Bubblevision - awesome.  How have I not heard that one before?

Is there a house artist in the house?

Bring on the three-part female harmony station ID!

coppertop's picture

you watchin too much Oprah dude

10kby2k's picture

I thought all the numbers were fixed, so why does anyone try to predict them or even print them as news?

Fish Gone Bad's picture

What is the secret?

He is the smartest retard.


Harlequin001's picture

because that's how they make their bonus...

Hurdy Gurdy Man's picture

yes... bubblevision is awesome


Hurdy Gurdy Man's picture

yes... bubblevision is awesome


hugovanderbubble's picture





No will be in his place job...



Deutsche bank guys are all scammers, like GS in US

Libertarians for Prosperity's picture

Few people know that Lavorgna began his career at FRBNY where he honed his skills as an analyst in their Projections department. 

SparkySC's picture


He better start 'past posting'. 


SparkySC's picture

LOL He should just STFU and save his career.



richard in norway's picture

i bet he placed a large short 2 mins before the report came out


i wish i had

mayhem_korner's picture

I bet he placed something large in his shorts 2 minutes after it came out.

mayhem_korner's picture

He could be our next Treasury Secretary.

Arius's picture

Joe .... keep it long as there are still suckers out there listening to you ... looking forward to listening to you on Kudlow ...

GetZeeGold's picture


You got some splaining to do Lucy!



pesamystik's picture

This guy is such a joke it hurts. Maybe CNBC will hire him.

coppertop's picture

Who hired Air n Burr Net? Jess sayin.

FEDbuster's picture

"Turbo Tax" Timmy's replacement? or next FED Chairman?  I see a bright future for Joe in government.

firefighter302's picture

Exactly FEDbuster,

Joe is eminently qualified for a top Treasury or FED position.

An abject shill/puppet who is wrong almost every time.

Perfect government/FED hire for Obama. Another idiot who believes that massive government and taxation is the answer to the problem caused by massive government and taxation.


Dr. Engali's picture

How do you have the absolutely worst forecasting record in the history of Wall Street and still keep your job? How do you do it?

It's called wall street socialism. A race to the bottom for talent.

proLiberty's picture

Only a "stunner" to Keynesians.  Austrians know better.

firefighter302's picture

+1 !!!!!

I was laughing, yesterday, at the updated forecasts on jobs. And the media carrying water for the boys, as usual.

I'm laughing today, too.

Fools, all.


Paul Krugman's picture

Don't you know Tyler--he gives great head. 

Dick Darlington's picture

Gotta love this shit, just priceless!

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Joe LaVorgna has turned into the ZH pinata. Who's up next and where the hell did I put that baseball bat?

Dr. Engali's picture

Who's up next and where the hell did I put that baseball bat?

I can think of a contributor named after a certain feline zodiac sign.

Arius's picture

they are picking on him because of its french ... La ... discrimination thats what i say ...

fight back Joe!  next prediction double up ... 350,000 !!!


StychoKiller's picture

Lavorgna looks more Italian than French to me. :>D

snowball777's picture

You left it with the momo monkey on the other thread.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture


But that old momo monkey won't let it go. He said something about trying to pry it from his cold dead fingers. 

Say it ain't so Shoeless "Joe LaVorgna" Jackson deserves a 47 ounce hickory bat like Babe Ruth used.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Say it ain't so Shoeless "Joe LaVorgna" Jackson deserves a 47 ounce hickory bat like Babe Ruth used.

I'd prefer to see him get the one that Al Capone used.

FEDbuster's picture

or Kevin "walstreetpro2" Rowland from youtube (sure miss that guy!)

I love an angry man with an axe in hand.

pesamystik's picture

It's not Joe's fault really. It's the U.S. Government's fault for not lying harder. Perhaps there is a Chinese division Joe can go work for, forecasting government payrolls over there. Or perhaps the Chinese government can just hire him. He likes big numbers, so does China. They were meant for each other.

Taint Boil's picture

I was hoping for the deer in the head light picture - my all time favorite.

inkarri9's picture

$5 says he ends up working for the US Government.  Again, if new weekly UE claims have been averaging 400K+, doesn't that mean that we've been losing 1.6M jobs a month for months on end now??  


Rally on!

lizzy36's picture

Lavorgna's bonus should be put into his personal PA, which he would be forced to trade based on his recommendations.

PnL bitchez.

Arius's picture

right ... but how can he make any money that way ?

Caviar Emptor's picture

Last winter he was "Snow Lavorgna" :-)

Peter K's picture

Are you trying to get poor Joe fired?

If so, hope you know that talent like Joe's is always sought by the White House.

Unintended consequences anyone? 

Cursive's picture

I suggest that, henceforth, the term "dumbass" be replaced with "LaVorgnass".

Fazzie's picture

 I second that. BTW is this the kind of "talent" that wall street touts as an excuse to use taxpayer money to fund record bonuses?

New Normalist's picture

You guys did not know that Joe got a magic 8-ball?

buzzsaw99's picture

Lavorgna can do for your portfolio what he did for Lehman.

alien-IQ's picture

...and he still has a job because........?