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The One You've All Been Waiting For: Heeeeeeere's Joe LaVorgna
Joe LaVorgna, who yesterday raised his NFP estimate from 100,000 to 175,000 was off only by a factor of 972% (and who can forget his 300,000 NFP forecast from last month two days before the final number ended up being a revised 25,000). Here is his, uh, "explanation."
There was very little positive news in the June employment report as job gains were paltry, the unemployment rate rose, the work week declined and average hourly earnings were unchanged. Headline payrolls rose just +18k following downward revisions to the prior two months: April was lowered to +217k from +232k and May was reduced to +25k from +54k as previously reported. The weakness was broad?based within the underlying categories. In the goods sector, construction shed ?9k jobs versus ?4k previously and manufacturing rose just +6k compared to ?2k in May. Private service?sector hiring also slowed significantly (+53k vs. +70k previously), as net layoffs occurred in financial services (?15k vs. +14k), temp workers (?12k vs. ?2k) and auto dealerships (?1k vs. +4k). Government layoffs continued (?39k vs. ?48k).
The unemployment rate backed up another tenth to 9.2% as household unemployment was unchanged but household employment declined by ?445k (vs. +105k previously). The length of the workweek declined a tenth to 34.3 hours and average hourly earnings were unchanged in the month. We are hard pressed to find any redeeming qualities of this report, which did not reflect the improvement in the manufacturing ISM or the ADP data. If the soft?patch in hiring does not improve in July, the outlook for second half of the year will diminish.
But, but, but Joe.... This is not at all what you predicted yesterday:
As we warned in yesterday’s note, our June payroll forecast was susceptible to revision pending the results of the ADP report given the recent improvement in that series’ forecasting track record. The ADP results were much better than expected, so we are raising our payroll forecast. ADP employment rose by +157k in June following a modest downward revision (-2k) to May. Over the last four months, the average miss on ADP has been just 43k, but these misses have all been in the same direction, to the low side. Thus, if we assume a similar forecast miss, this is consistent with a 200k increase in private payrolls. With the public sector shedding on average -25k jobs per month, headline nonfarm payrolls should come in at +175k. Previously, we were forecasting +100k. Our forecast of a one tenth decline in the unemployment rate (to 9.0%) remains intact.
Joe: please, tell us... We beg you... What is the secret? How do you have the absolutely worst forecasting record in the history of Wall Street and still keep your job? How do you do it? If you trademark it you would make gobs more money than using the excel goalseek function month after month with results so wrong that it boggles the mind.
Seriously.
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Just remember when Bear Stearns collapsed he said on Bubblevision that we weren't in a recession nor heading towards one.
3 months after it had already started....
Bubblevision - awesome. How have I not heard that one before?
Is there a house artist in the house?
Bring on the three-part female harmony station ID!
you watchin too much Oprah dude
I thought all the numbers were fixed, so why does anyone try to predict them or even print them as news?
What is the secret?
He is the smartest retard.
because that's how they make their bonus...
yes... bubblevision is awesome
yes... bubblevision is awesome
Fired,
Dismissed,
Kicked...
Resigned
No will be in his place job...
Incredible
Deutsche bank guys are all scammers, like GS in US
Even you might be better Eb.
Few people know that Lavorgna began his career at FRBNY where he honed his skills as an analyst in their Projections department.
LOLLLLLLLLLLLL
He better start 'past posting'.
LOL He should just STFU and save his career.
i bet he placed a large short 2 mins before the report came out
i wish i had
I bet he placed something large in his shorts 2 minutes after it came out.
He could be our next Treasury Secretary.
Joe .... keep it up...as long as there are still suckers out there listening to you ... looking forward to listening to you on Kudlow ...
You got some splaining to do Lucy!
This guy is such a joke it hurts. Maybe CNBC will hire him.
Who hired Air n Burr Net? Jess sayin.
"Turbo Tax" Timmy's replacement? or next FED Chairman? I see a bright future for Joe in government.
Exactly FEDbuster,
Joe is eminently qualified for a top Treasury or FED position.
An abject shill/puppet who is wrong almost every time.
Perfect government/FED hire for Obama. Another idiot who believes that massive government and taxation is the answer to the problem caused by massive government and taxation.
LOL.
How do you have the absolutely worst forecasting record in the history of Wall Street and still keep your job? How do you do it?
It's called wall street socialism. A race to the bottom for talent.
Only a "stunner" to Keynesians. Austrians know better.
+1 !!!!!
I was laughing, yesterday, at the updated forecasts on jobs. And the media carrying water for the boys, as usual.
I'm laughing today, too.
Fools, all.
Don't you know Tyler--he gives great head.
Gotta love this shit, just priceless!
Joe LaVorgna has turned into the ZH pinata. Who's up next and where the hell did I put that baseball bat?
Who's up next and where the hell did I put that baseball bat?
I can think of a contributor named after a certain feline zodiac sign.
they are picking on him because of its french ... La ... discrimination thats what i say ...
fight back Joe! next prediction double up ... 350,000 !!!
Lavorgna looks more Italian than French to me. :>D
You left it with the momo monkey on the other thread.
LOL
But that old momo monkey won't let it go. He said something about trying to pry it from his cold dead fingers.
Say it ain't so Shoeless "Joe LaVorgna" Jackson deserves a 47 ounce hickory bat like Babe Ruth used.
I'd prefer to see him get the one that Al Capone used.
or Kevin "walstreetpro2" Rowland from youtube (sure miss that guy!)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-NWFA6g2x-4&feature=channel_video_title
I love an angry man with an axe in hand.
It's not Joe's fault really. It's the U.S. Government's fault for not lying harder. Perhaps there is a Chinese division Joe can go work for, forecasting government payrolls over there. Or perhaps the Chinese government can just hire him. He likes big numbers, so does China. They were meant for each other.
I was hoping for the deer in the head light picture - my all time favorite.
Which anal-cyst is Joe LaVorgna?
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/27/100874288_a5ff91b322.jpg
Che vergogna
lol
$5 says he ends up working for the US Government. Again, if new weekly UE claims have been averaging 400K+, doesn't that mean that we've been losing 1.6M jobs a month for months on end now??
Rally on!
Lavorgna's bonus should be put into his personal PA, which he would be forced to trade based on his recommendations.
PnL bitchez.
right ... but how can he make any money that way ?
Last winter he was "Snow Lavorgna" :-)
Are you trying to get poor Joe fired?
If so, hope you know that talent like Joe's is always sought by the White House.
Unintended consequences anyone?
I suggest that, henceforth, the term "dumbass" be replaced with "LaVorgnass".
I second that. BTW is this the kind of "talent" that wall street touts as an excuse to use taxpayer money to fund record bonuses?
You guys did not know that Joe got a magic 8-ball?
Lavorgna can do for your portfolio what he did for Lehman.
...and he still has a job because........?
and inventories are up almost 2% Ha! The fall is gonna suck!
There was a huge cheerleading rally for almost 2 weeks leading into this number. If it had come within 15K there woulda been Crystal flowing. It's how these guys collaborate, like the fake players at a street 3-card Monte game
You mean that first guy wasn't really a big winner? Son of a...
hehe I spent a summer shillin' for a 3 card Monte game in Times Square. It was a WS job requirement :-)
Many IBs have excellent training programs in place and, contrary to popular belief, they don't actually have boilers in them.
Right. Sometimes they trade wingtips for two-tones and train at race track, bookie joint, vegas sports book and really cut their teeth
Amazing how so many of these "brilliant people" keep their jobs. Would not hire him to clean my windows.
Why do they even need these idiots. If the formula is take rolling average miss on ADP then deduct that from ADP and make that your forecast.
Just put an excell spreadsheet up on your website using this.
Garbage in Joe, garbage out Joe.
This fool, Lavorgna, is a complete and total douchebag, rivaled only by LIESman and Zandi.
don't forget shit for brains pissani..
Joe : suck my hairy asshole
Tool
An excellent example of the Wall Street talent which requires ongoing bonuses in order to retain. Why, if they didn't pay the bonuses they do, they'd lose talent like Joe and those who gave us Lehman and AIG to McDonald's and Walmart.
Joe would fuck up orders at McDonalds.
So when do we hear from the Telepromter again? I am actually gonna listen to this one!
Think he's up at 10.30am but maybe its postponed as i hear hes got a golf lesson down on the range thats taking a while.
Are we seeing "Buy-the-Dipper's Remorse"?
Buy the dip....no that dip... no that one...ummmm...
thats what you get when you hire an "economist" from Vassar College.
these IBs need to stick with sophisticated intellectuals from top 10 school
yesterday there were totally different assumptions, conditions etc. In the internet age everything changes quickly. Do not blame Vergogna. I am sure he 'bemühte sich im Rahmen seiner begrenzten Möglichkeiten', roughly: 'he did the best endeavours within his limited capabilities', this is the worst possible sentence in a job reference, yet sounding positive. I was always proud when I read it in my references first.
A kindergartner with a couple darts could outmatch this retarded assclown.
maybe he uses linked in to keep his job, it would help explain the valuation
Joe BaLogna and LIEsman are spooning on the couch in the CNBC office lounge cursing Santelli name.
ADP number was completely made up out of thin air and leaked to have an excuse for Wall Street crooks and NY Fed to mark up the stock market before a terrible jobs report -- without this recent mark up we would be entering a bear market (where the stock market should be and the government asshats and Bernank know it).
Wholesale inventories jump.
You are all wrong.
You are confusing stupidity with intention here.
LaVorgna isn't stupid.
He's being paid to make false predictions, because internally he and his bank's prop trading desk are betting the opposite direction.
Do you really believe he doesn't know what he's doing ?
Deutsche Bank made a gain of $10bn this year for a reason.
Why do you think banks employ analysts ?
Because they are so generous and out of the love of their hearts give investment advice for free ?
Please don't say you're so naive.
Right, like Ive said since day 1 here on Zerohedge, 'planned demolition'. Under the guise of 'No, really, it will work....keep your 401K's dont sell em SEE markets green!' While the country is 3rd worlded, as planned.
And MOST people BELIEVED it!
Douche Bank taking profits ystrdy, no doubt.
"Planned demolition"? Yes, it is.
Good call, Sheepdog.
And the CNBC puppets (Liesman, Pissani and the new Troll, Simon Hobbs, etc.) continue to be an advertisement for Wall Street. Carnival barkers with suits on.
I do not know why ZH cares so much about anything any tbtf bank publishes, too. Shall we read this analyst report reverse? or in an affirmative way? or hyper-reverse, which equals affirmatively? or the first section reverse and the middle section hyper-reverse... everybody, in words: EVERYBODY knows that banks are looting and shitting the population as deeply and widely as they possibly can. Caring about their PR number crunching is kind of masochistic.
Seems to me everyone thinks the central banks main goal is to keep retail mom and pops 401K green. LOL, what a laffer.
+ 12717
which is about the level joe bought his short
Just pumping their longs waiting on the debt ceiling to pass and for the next round of QE. That's all.
Right on, bro. It's a proven business model
Or, contrary to what EVERYONE retail believes, theyre stacking their shorts. Wouldnt that be spectaculary hillarious!
+1
who is Joe Lavorgna, and why should I care?
Joey Bagodonuts, what a loser.
Not a loser.
Intentional and paid public misleader/talking head/front end puppet.
He's raking in $500,000 per year for this and you're not.
His mom says he was always a good boy
How do you know what Im making from it? Ive called it right all along.
But you are not a public analyst with a bank, I assume.
That's what I wanted to say by that.
Confusing incompetence with planned malicious deceit is dangerous.
Im my own central bank now. All the rest of this is just sideshow freak entertainment. The plan from TARP was ensure the complete destruction and bankruptcy of the USA....no big deal everyone should have been able to see it, but all blinded by $$$$ signs. So easy to cull the herd, and look how fat they are now. Good luck mom and pops, your 401K will soon be gone, buy a good tent.
He has a job because he has a PERFECT track record; meaning, everyone does the EXACT opposite and they do well. It actually makes perfect sense.
Awesome how everyone still believes theyve got these guys pegged and believe these guys all work to ensure ever-green markets, and 100% certainty endless bailouts continue...behind the scenes theyre piling on their shorts. Have fun, retail 401K longs, while you can.
Wall St loaded short people, keep thinking Bernank is there to pump your stupid stocks, I couldnt care less really.
Joe is smarter than you think. He shorted the ES heavily yesterday. I just saw him at Sothebys buying Elizabeth Taylors 28 Karat ring. /sarc
Oy VEY!
Now those are some pearly whites.
But, he really does look good. With all that mousse in his hair and the heavy starched shirts, $300. ties, etc. And, always smirking. I like his smirk. Of course like the rest of the talking heads he knows nothing.
That's how FIRE industry is hurting real economy: they employ all the best talented people.
Nobody is left for producing common stuff.
I like this forecasting thingy, I'm sure it's a great job. No problem if you get it all wrong and I bet the pay and perks are pretty good too.
I have a grandson who could do this job. He's a smart guy, really quick to catch on.
I think he could do the job as good as Joe does, and a lot of the other tossers too.
OK he's only 5 years old, but give him twenty minutes and he'll get the hang of it.
He reminds me of a "friend" who sells cars. I buy elsewhere. lulz
John Nadler at Kitco easily beats Joe. He's been calling gold a bubble since 2002. For lessons in deluded, rationaling cognitive dissonance, with a healthy splash of academic nitwitizm, Nadler is supreme.
In other news, Kitco asks for Creditor Protection as Revenue Quebec demands almost $400 million.
Now if their 'unallocated' gold holders start asking for redemption, then they could really be in trouble.
Nadler is a complete tool. I stopped reading his daily columb almost 8 years ago. He was just consistanly wrong and his bias towards trashing gold and sucking Central Planners dick's was thinly veiled. Strange for a senior analyst for a company selling PM's. Maybe he just wanted to brown nose the Central Planning authorities while his company was defrauding them. He is a complete joke.
+1000. Directionally, Nadler to the gold market is the opposite of what David Lareah was for Real Estate. Both exemplify the complete absence of integrity. Little wonder Kitco is embroiled in a scandal now about false gold transactions. Shocked I say, shocked.
Nobody has ever seen Joe L. & Leo K. at the same time. I'm just saying...
Joe completely ignored the whole topic of why he was so wrong. Could it be because he's believing his own kool-aid coloured BS and that same BS from from the Central bank's perception management agenda... say it ain't so Joe.
Other careers beckon ... meteorology perhaps?
Typical Wall Street Trash.....I wonder what stocks he holds?
If a doctor or lawyer make a mistake like this they gets sued or lose thier license...on Wall Street, a mistake of this magnitude gets you a Fat Bonus (usually from taxpayer money via Fed, no less).
UPDATE: BaLogna nuts up admits on CNBC, "I was a trifecta of wrongness..."
Tyler, you are hilarious! keep up the entertainment please. News on its own can be quite depressing.
Joe is Larry Kudlow's bitch, he is the only person who is always MORE bullish than Kudlow. Amazing how these guys have this lovefest on CNBS and are not right.
Watch the YouTube video 'RIOTS ARE COMING TO AMERICA !!!'
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QypD1z7rcqg