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The Ongoing Plight of the "Nightcrawler'
I'll let Rasputin do the talking for me today, on the ongoing drama surrounding the U.S. Dollar, otherwise referred to as the "U.S. Nightcrawler". Apparently, the Fed is willing and able to monetize rotten Cabela's bait and hook receivables, breast implant and liposuction receivables, 0% Best Buy LCD TV receivables, etc. from the bleeding private label bagholders via its Alphabet Soup programs. No wonder the U.S. Dollar is taking a drubbing.
Yet interest rates remain at or near 40-year lows, the U.S. continues to finance its huge deficits without a hitch, each issue going out 300% oversubscribed, and the Asian and OPEC debt enablers keep swallowing more and more nightcrawlers.
Imagine Ben and Timmy with their hands in the bait can, flinging more and more of this stuff:
Rasputin describes the situation the best:
"World trade--which has fallen off roughly
THIRTY-PERCENT in the last year--is even beyond the drop seen in the
previous Great Depression.
The question now becomes:
"What happens next?"
...and from everything I'm seeing (Australia's central bank
notwithstanding) is the most massive, coordinated, pervasive, abusive MONETIZATION, REFLATION, NATIONALIZATION AND FIAT-FLINGING
the world has ever witnessed by all major governments and central banks.
And, as Mish points out here:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/10/competitive-currency-debasement-look-at.html
...even China is partaking in a true "Beggar thy Neighbor/Race to
the Bottom" currency debasement, so it isn't just the Western World
trashing their currency.
So, either these central banks and governments are willing to
continue to burn their currencies to the ground, AND the U.S. is
allowed to go back to the "good ol' days" of running up FOUR TRILLION FIATSCOS
per year of brand new debt (over and above the near
sixty-trillion we already collectively owe) in order to again become
"The mouth of the world", or it's back to "Great Disintegration I".
Frankly, I'd rather see the latter than the former take place, but
I suspect that the world's central banks and governments are going to
try to incite "Global Weimar" in order to keep the whole "Ponzi Pyramid
of Debt and Derivatives Death" from continuing to implode.
Uncle Sugar runs up a $1.5 trillion fiatsco deficit, yet manages to sell 10-year Treasuries at a 3.21% interest rate.
Now, here's the funny part:
Nearly thirty years ago, the world was going BERSERK when Uncle
Sugar's TOTAL debt--accumulated during the first two-hundred years of
this country's existence--reached one trillion fiatscos.
Total. One Trillion.
And, as previously mentioned, it took over two-hundred years to get there.
The result of this fiscal extravagance was that the "Bond
Vigilantes" smacked Uncle Sugar with upwards of SIXTEEN PERCENT
interest rates to compensate them for their perceived risk of funding
his financial infidelity.
And today?
Uncle Sugar is running up more than the ENTIRE
budget-deficit-to-date back in 1980 in ONE SINGLE YEAR, yet he only has
to pay ONE-FIFTH the interest rate on new debt?
Oh, and by the way, don't for a minute believe that one-point-five
trillion number is anywhere near accurate. It's not. Between the
stealing...er..."borrowing" of funds from Social Security and the
"off-budget" items, the real number is probably closer to two trillion.
And let us also not forget that it isn't exactly like our dear
Uncle has been a model of fiscal sobriety in these last thirty years,
as he has run up twelve trillion fiatscos of debt prior to going on
this latest bender.
Meanwhile, regarding the U.S. nightcrawler...
Forty-six friggin' percent fall over twenty-four years. Would you call that a trend?
If an investment or asset fell forty-six
percent, nearly one-half, over a period of twenty-four years, would you
consider it a loser?
Would you stick with it, or get rid of it in disgust, finally throwing in the towel?
Well, that very question is one with which our foreign debt
enablers are wrestling, as they have watched the U.S. fiatsco fall from
its 1985 high of:
164
...to today's roughly:
76
...crushing the value of their holdings of our debt.
And they're not happy about it.
In fact, as this lengthy-but-informative Bloomberg article so vividly reveals:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aPoUCijvAfCk
...our creditors are seriously considering--and moving into--alternatives to the U.S. nightcrawler-backed buck.
Furthermore, the empty rhetoric of Turbo Tax Timmy's:
"A strong U.S. fiatsco, blah, blah..."
...is falling on deaf ears, as the world is finally figuring out
that the U.S. wants a WEAK nightcrawler, not a strong one, in order to
allow us to cheat our debt holders and even allow Amerika's few
remaining exporters to show a profit.
(Ras Conclusion): The trend is undeniable:
-Twenty-four years.
-Forty-six percent fall in the U.S. fiatsco.
-U.S. fiatsco share of world reserves dropping.
-Debt enablers moving to alternate currencies and buggy whips.
-Those same debt enablers balking at buying more of Uncle's debt.
-Uncle states he wants to borrow another three-trillion fiatscos in two years. (And ten trillion in ten years)
-Uncle and the Fed both actively trying to destroy the value of the nightcrawler.
Yet, people STILL believe that the U.S. fiatsco is gonna magically
RISE, even as Uncle Sugar continues to pile debt to the sky and our
debt enablers are moving away from our currency in droves and the Fed
will be the ONLY buyer of Uncle's debt?
Imagine being an Asian central bank--already
stuffed to the gills with U.S. nightcrawlers--then being forced to SUCK
DOWN MORE of the creepy, crawly things just to keep your own export
industries continuing their utter collapse.
.....................
Same old junk running today.
Despite world record unemployment, accelerating foreclosures, negative GDP as far as the eye can see, the Gamblers continue to pile into retail stocks:
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Not to mention the fact that it is just the debasement relative to their own pervasive debasement, which means that the real rate of debasement is much higher than that.
fwiw Alan Greenspan's face reminds me of an earthworm
AU after hours, $1057.50- in dollars. The best is yet to com3.
Five asian central banks bought $$ to restrain the fall. Imagine if they had not.
Epic fail on the pics today. ;-)
Robo>>>wherez my biches??
(sorry ladies of the ZH)
"MARK IT ZERO, DUDE"
He stopped posting them when some d-bag called him the porn guy or something.
The PC cops are relentless, I'm waiting for the PETA types to lodge a complaint about the crocodiles being used as analogy to GS prop desk. Crocs deserve better ya know.
Screw that d-bag robo and keep posting the ladies. We love them!
interest rates and dollar will go upside
prices always rise or fall surprisingly
what everybody knows is not new any longer
90 still work, consume and invest
the whole grab needs price adjustement and we will be fine
as long as you eat, breathe, drink and make love
you live
so what the hell do you want ?
Well, if we're fantasizing and it's your treat, I'd love a cookie.
Our President's affirmation of T Cube today is all you need to know that the Gig is on the rocks.
I'm a woman so it is okay for me to post. I don't know how to embed this or I would.
Digging for gold?
http://lordmalibog.blogetery.com/files/2009/03/gold-digger.jpg
China battling for gold, ending up with silver:
http://eng.tibet.cn/Features2008/2008olympic/china/200808/W0200808244856...
Really digging gold:
http://fast1.onesite.com/my.telegraph.co.uk/user/latin-america//women_go...
Just some hot chick:
http://slyoyster.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/08/kristenbell2.jpg
Pretty sure Robo would precede that last pic with a comment about unemployed Scores chicks getting extended benefits and jumping into the daytrade game, picking the pretty symbol CAR - quickly followed by the announcement of "Avis and Budget to Offer 100 Percent Smoke-Free Fleet" http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Avis-and-Budget-to-Offer-100-iw-1214595343... And a chart, of course.
My impression from experience is of a student of higher learning at Oaksterdam University, waiting for her sister to make it out of the passenger side & mom from the back so they can get to class and learn how to bring the new economy to life in their life for profit and fun. How I miss the East Bay.
HEY! Steak! MsCreant has one for ya!
Some are awake. News is between friends.
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/10/chalmers-johnson-decline-of-empires.html
Great video.
Fuck the pentagon. When the assholes are dropping planes into thier accounting wing to burn the honest people in the organization it's game over.
and Rasputin references ZH
http://wallstreetbear.com/board/view.php?topic=61811&post=205918
China et al still have more dollars than anything else or any other alternative store of value. All it will take is a touch of potentially responsible comments from the US to turn the dollar up and I do not see the dollar dropping much further until China et al have a better alternative. In the meantime they ( China et al ) need the occasional collapse of the few viable alternatives they currently have ( gold silver etc. ) so that they can load up on them - so I am looking for some words of wisdom that will show that our fearless leaders are still in control of the situation.
You have to love this:
CAMP +21% today on big volume, no news (earnings report after the bell).
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CAMP#chart1:symbol=camp;range=1d;indi...
And then:
4:11PM CalAmp reports Q2 EPS of ($0.17) vs ($0.08) Single analyst estimate; co reports revs of $23.9 mln vs $25.00 mln Single analyst estimate (CAMP) 2.66 +0.46 : Co sees Q3 EPS in the range of ($0.04) to $0.00 vs $0.00 First Call consensus and sees Q3 revs to be in the range of $29 to $32 mln vs $31 mln First Call consensus. With the increased demand and strong operating momentum the firm expects further growth in 4Q10 and sees revs of $34 to $38 mln vs $32 mln First Call consensus.
I enjoyed your article, however I'd be hesitant to pat the Australians on the back. I lived there for close to a year and the work ethic/iq/political correctness leaves a lot to be desired at times.
Australia only escaped recession due to the Chinese stimulus. A double-dip and dollar rally would be a bitch-slap to the aussies. IMO I wouldn't be surprised to see that rise undone within the year.
All your gold are belong to us.
Right on time. Right on the money.
I notice that Rasputin is claiming the US government will confiscate gold. I think that is absurd. The total amount of gold in the world is too tiny to make much difference to an operation the size of the US government.
But there are about $100T worth of proven oil reserves. Now THAT is worth stealing.
The dollar is roughly the same level it was in 1995. Everyone fails to recognize it is the backbone of world credit and as such, the elimination of the US external debt would leave the rest of the world without credit. The current trend is only able to generate a trade deficit half what was generated previously and I venture that without banker interference in oil markets the deficit would be gone. The Fed, like it or not, went out and restored some symbalence of stability in world credit markets. For the time being this is nothing more than the boy with his finger in the Dike. The government is only 20% of the economy or if you want to stretch it, 30%. The economy needs $5 trillion in new debt to run sideways. It is entirely possible that government tax receipts around the world would be nearing zero. The nightcrawler might be bouncing along bottom or going down, but don't forget all the fish in the world have swallowed the bait. This is bank paper and don't forget it. Banks create the militarys around the world and decide who wins.