The Only 2011 Forecast With A Bizarro Chance Of Getting It All Correct

Tyler Durden's picture

One of the traditional characteristics of the financial media world in the last few days of any given year is the veritable cornucopia of next year "predictions" from those who believe their opinions are relevant/important/credible. Of course, with this whole process being nothing but an exercise in vanity, and resulting in pervasive ridicule by the rest of the media world 365 days later, unless of course one has immaculate luck, in which case playing the lottery has far better fringe benefits, Zero Hedge has no interest in actually predicting parallel outcomes, when event iterations are serial and just getting the one main thing right usually ends up paying off in droves (as such our one and only very vague prediction for the end of 2011 is that the Fed will be one year closer to completely losing control of its centrally planned schizophrenic reality, and the market will be ever closer to realizing this). That said, the following list of forecasts by Charles Hugh Smith is certainly worth reading. And with gems such as: Markets in precious metals, oil, commodities, stocks and bonds will rise and fall in an unpredictable fashion; The SNAP food stamp program will be expanded to include cable TV
access to a new U.S. government-sponsored channel, "Bread and Circuses, and
QE3 will include issuing U.S. Treasury bonds directly to households you know this may well be the only set of predictions that gets the outcome right in our Bizarro world, TheOnion-style centrally planned reality.

My Predictions for 2011, by Charles Hugh Smith

Despite the surfeit of predictions currently clogging the Web, I offer my own modest list of predictions for 2011.

I've tried to resist, but the temptation is simply too great: I'm caving in and unleashing a list of 2011 predictions.

Sitting back while other commentators issue their lists of predictions is like being in front of the salty nuts and chips at a party, watching everyone else grab handfuls of the tempting treats. I've held off so far but my resolve has finally broken down.

Despite the ridicule that is sure to be heaped on my head for being wrong, wrong, wrong about everything I expect to happen, at least I share that ignominy with 99.99% of humanity.

Life and history are not predictable, hence the temptation to go ahead and fling a guess or two at the dartboard.

So here goes nothing:

1. North Korea will demand a "workers' paradise" Disneyland be constructed over its uranium enrichment plant. The North Korean Elites are tired of skulking off to the Tokyo Disneyland under faked passports, and so after a hair-raising display of bellicosity and raving threats of a "holy war" against South Korea and the U.S., the North will demand a specially themed "workers' paradise" Disneyland be constructed over their primary deep-underground uranium enrichment plant.

The U.S. will greenlight the project over South Korea's objections, but the deal will fall through at the last minute when North Korea also demands a Universal Studios theme park be built on the Chinese-NK border as a hard-money tourist attraction.

The North, threatening nuclear war, will contact FedEx to inquire about the shipment of fissile materials via two-day express.

2. The Bernanke Put will turn out to be more than a figure of speech. When the U.S. stock market "unexpectedly" craters in the first quarter, despite the Federal Reserve's QE2 POMO buying of Treasuries and the positive news about retail sales, employment and Pres. Obama's pickup games on the D.C. basketball courts, the Fed will reveal that it raked in billions of dollars in profits from a massive bet against the SPX (S&P 500), NDX (Nasdaq 100) and DJIA (Dow Jones 30) via index puts.

After the revelation, the markets will rebound on rumors that the Fed exited the Bernanke Puts and has secretly loaded up on calls. A contract for a new luxurious Fed resort on Jekyll island will be announced via mimeographed newsletter distributed on a "need to know only" basis.

3. The convergence of Hollywood, politics and finance will gather momentum. President Obama will start subbing for the L.A. Lakers, getting the nod from Jack Nicholson and Magic Johnson, while the First Lady will start attending tractor pulls and motocross races.

Ben Bernanke will be a guest on "Jeopardy!", while Tim Geitner will do a turn on "Dancing with the Stars." Everyone's favorite member of the Financial Power Elite, Warren Buffett, will guest-star on "CSI: Omaha" as the avuncular billionaire who has misplaced a few billion dollars invested in Goldman Sachs stock at the bottom of the market in early 2009.

Lloyd Blankfein, the CEO of Goldman Sachs who famously declared that he and the firm were "doing God's work," will join Brangelina on a goodwill tour of East Africa, offering U.S. Treasury bonds to village chiefs in exchange for any diamonds they might have laying around gathering dust. He will be welcomed as a very amusing fellow, though lacking Brangelina's star power and charisma.

4. The SNAP food stamp program will be expanded to include cable TV access to a new U.S. government-sponsored channel, "Bread and Circuses." The new channel will be carried by all cable and satellite carriers, and will feature 24 hours of America's favorite "reality" shows (or their knockoffs and copycats if the original show is unavailable). The lineup will include the full menu of instant-celebrity entertainment: "survivor" copycats, "American Idol" and "Dancing with the Stars" clones, and a revolving schedule of demeaning, obnoxious TV-judge shows featuring citizens confessing to lying, cheating, stealing, wife-beating, child abuse, bungled burglaries, serial addictions, going to church solely to "pick up the ladies," coloring in their kid's coloring books and other assorted crimes and indiscretions.

5. A new "ultimate challenge" gameshow will offer not just instant celebrity but also the chance of dismemberment and death. As the public tires of formulaic singing and dancing contests and foolish races through pig-slop and hokey contraptions, one brave production company will move to a nation without liability laws and launch "the ultimate challenge" gameshow, which will include everyone's favorite contests plus new ones that will bring digital games that mimic combat to real life.

Contestants will gather in a replica of Rome's famed Coliseum, and engage in a series of contests that include dancing, singing, tug-of-war, trash-talking, endzone touchdown dancing, Tongan-Rules rugby, chariot racing, blindfolded combat with exotic ancient weaponry (such as the gimlet tor, a combination throwing net and mace), helmetless motocross, hang-gliding combat, and lastly, a weeklong stint with a U.S. Army Ranger team deep in Afghanistan. Contestants who fail to return will be given spectacular burials, and their exploits will be documented and posted on YouTube, with a voiceover by a Hollywood star.

Though critics will deride the show as "barbaric," it will be an instant hit.

6. QE3 will include issuing U.S. Treasury bonds directly to households.
The sole stipulation will be that any proceeds from the sale of the bonds must be invested in the U.S. stock market.

7. Markets in precious metals, oil, commodities, stocks and bonds will rise and fall in an unpredictable fashion. Every analyst, pundit and commentator will be right about the movements, but at the wrong time. Most players will lose money while convincing themselves they made a killing. Bat guano and 'roo innards will emerge as the "hot commodities" of the year, as both will go parabolic.

Everyone betting on the oil futures contango will be wiped out.

8. Contact will be made with an alien civilization in the Alpha Centauri system. The U.N. security Council will issue a proclamation in support of galactic peace, with Russia and China abstaining rather than support the U.S. initiative. President Obama will request a loan of 100 trillion quatloos from the aliens as a "gesture of friendship to Earth," which his financial advisors estimate will fund the status quo to the 2012 elections.

Republicans will issue a stern warning to the aliens that "illegal immigration" to the U.S. was, well, illegal (at least in states which don't depend on said illegals to mow their lawns, staff their slaughterhouses and tend the Elites' offspring and elderly parents), while the Democrats will offer the aliens instant citizenship and Medicaid as long as they have "anchor babies" "within the U.S. or its airspace."

NASA's budget shortfall will preclude the intepretation of the aliens' message, but it will be believed by some cryptographers to be a combination of laughter and fear.

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umop episdn's picture

I'm sure the aliens will tell us that a check is in the mail...

gwar5's picture

I predict the bitches at the Federal Reserve will precipitate a run on the banks and call for martial law.

MsCreant's picture

You missed the point of this post. You are supposed to come up with extreme, gag, predictions, riiiiiight? Yours is a given statement of fact.

OMG's picture

100 trillion quatloos , well well well! So TD has the inside scoop on those quatloos, or he thought he did!


The Bernanke had already heard the call "head For The Choopa" and convinced the Alpha Centauri to complete the FX swaps as advised....too late for the admin the water is polluted.

CPL's picture

4. The SNAP food stamp program will be expanded to include cable TV access to a new U.S. government-sponsored channel, "Bread and Circuses."


Saddly I believe this will actually happen even with TD being a smart ass

Oh regional Indian's picture

CPL, I had the exact same thought. It will be couched in some "Continuation fo Governance" gobbledygook.

The citizens will need to be kept informed of where the Soup Kitchen lines are the shortest, get 24/7 UFC re-re-re-runs etc. etc.

Propaganda!!! It's no laughing matter (insert cackling laugh track)!


jeff montanye's picture

and what about "interactivity"?  they get to overhear you so as to protect your home(land) from domestic terrorist attack.  you get to pick the features of microsoft's high def dvds.

The Alarmist's picture

SNAP already provides assistance for phone service, so this is not such a stretch.

Pants McPants's picture

I haven't finished reading yet but felt the need to chime in on #3.  Brilliant.  If Mr. Smith had included professional sports in his merger I would go all in on his behalf.  As if seeing Obama's mug on finance and news sites isn't enough he's permeated the sports pages as well.  Good grief!

TooBearish's picture

Oil and bonds will both rally hard all year?!?

Azannoth's picture

"NASA's budget shortfall will preclude the interpretation of the aliens' message, but it will be believed by some cryptographers to be a combination of laughter and fear."

1 Alien: those humans are shitting us, aren't they (giggle)

2 Alien: <after pondering> no I think they're not (alien goo running through their pants)

1 Alien: let's use our time machine and make sure the 1st Contact never happened

2 Alien: you're a genius!

The Alarmist's picture

Actually, I am reminded of a Twilight Zone Episode ... the aliens come along with a book entitled, "To Serve Man," and as her ultra-smart science type colleagues board the alien ship to go to their new digs on their planet, the smart young lady manages to translate the contents ...

"To Serve Man: It's a cookbook!"

Sudden Debt's picture

Nothing about the construction of Stallags? Work camps for the lazy unemployed?

MsCreant's picture

You all keep missing that this is a joke post, see. You are supposed to post stuff that is clearly far fetched and absurd. Here is an example of one:


#There will be a recovery.

rosiescenario's picture"The current recovery will advance"

NumberNone's picture

Either people are just reading the headlines and not the content...or the world has gotten so effed up people actually can accept the premises as possible. 


jakethesnake76's picture

Thanx i was afraid i was gonna have to prepare for something dire or even worry about my Gov. Job , so i can smile and nod back off to sleep now my retirement funds are safe again.

The Alarmist's picture

You got it wrong, dude.  The work camps are to keep the remaining few productive citizens working while their overlords and supporting poverty-posse live off their efforts.

101 years and counting's picture

Tyler Durden's identity is revealed.  He is a disgruntled janitor at GS and is blogging because his bonus is "only" 300% of his yearly salary.

rosiescenario's picture

....which would also explain his access to certain inforamtion left carelessly lying on the copier....

TexDenim's picture

We are goign to see the Fed buy equities, oil, apartment buildings, pet food, and bordellos in Nevada.

zhandax's picture

They already tried that....Mustang Ranch in Nevada.  They later sold it at a loss.....

StychoKiller's picture

'Tis the screwing they get for the screwing they got!  It's certainly a statement when the Govt. can't even run a cathouse properly!

dracos_ghost's picture

I think #8 is a typo. The UN cuts a deal with the Alpha Romeo system and gives Italy a way to get bailed out by the federation of planets and leave the Euro.

Azannoth's picture

There is one reason and 1 reason only why the government hides from us the fact that aliens have been visiting or possibly are still visiting Earth, any being smart enough to travel the Galaxy would be smart enough to see through the daily lies we are fed, we are in fact a Galactical North Korea, where any contact with the outside is prohibited


I wouldn't be surprised that the governments especially USA have threatened with planetary suicide if the aliens where ever to show them selves in public

jeff montanye's picture

if i understand you, i wouldn't be surprised if the u.s.a threatened aliens with planetary destruction either.  what would surprise me is that, after watching iraq and afghanistan, the aliens believed the threats.

Mad Max's picture

As good as any list I've seen so far.  But two glaring errors:

#5 "Contestants will gather in a replica of Rome's famed Coliseum" no, TV is far too cheap for that.  Think huge uninsulated pole barn.

#8, it won't be quatloos, see here:

The Alarmist's picture

re #5, you are correct sir that TV is too cheap to build an actual coliseum, but they will build a few styrofoam columns and chroma-key the rest ... TV, like Politics, is all about illusion.

downrodeo's picture


hang-gliding combat.... hilarious!


I've got one: I call it murder golf.

Two players are positioned 50 meters from one another. They are each given a basket of golf balls and a callaway driver, and the last person standing/twitching wins the round. If you're a decent shot, the rounds shouldn't last more than 20-30 seconds. The ad revenue alone could pay the national debt.

rosiescenario's picture

....and Rolex would be a sure advertiser

mogul rider's picture

The maple leafs win the cup.


Holy sheep doodoo I just woke up from a nightmare.

chindit13's picture

Some Zerohedge predictions:

---ZH will run 400+ articles on gold, all the same folks will make all the same comments, for and against, nobody convinces anyone of anything...junks flow freely

---Gordon Gekko will write two cookbooks, one for gold and one for fiat paper, "You Can Eat Gold (Just Use My Bathroom, Please)", and "Fiat is the New Arugula"

---Cornelius will devise a program that blocks the account of anyone using any permutation of "bitches"

---Michelle will will Caruso and Cabrera to Erin Burnett, much to the delight of ZH shut-ins and TSA airport personnel

---the range of world problems attributed to Jews by ZH regulars will expand to include acne and boils

---the range of world problems attributed to the CIA by ZH regulars will expand to include chronic flatulence

---Alex Jones will be "proven" to be a CIA psyop, Geopol a Mossad agent, since neither has yet produced official government documents showing 911 was an inside job; Julian Assange will start the rumors to take heat off himself for same

---Marla will start her own blog called SubZerohedge, with obvious product placement opportunities should housing recover; copyright battles will ensue

---a meteor will strike the Earth wiping out North Dakota; ZHer's will scream false flag

---"Tyler" will admit he's really Chumbawamba

---"Tyler" will admit he's really Harry Wanger

---RoboTrader will join PromiseKeepers and swear off soft porn

---Jim Cramer will break Sergey out of prison in order to hack Zerohedge and stop the character assassination, as opposed to the character suicide he does on CNBC

---a future Fed President, now a doctoral student at an Ivy League university, will study Great Depression II and convince himself he knows what Bernanke did wrong;  hide your babies

---ZHer's who write, "this is going to fall apart a lot faster than people think" will be required to do 300 hours of community service in the Hamptons for the "underprivileged" (folks who did not receive an eight figure bonus)

---2011 will end with not a single prosecution for wrongdoing in the financial system

rosiescenario's picture out did the original, especially liked:


"--a future Fed President, now a doctoral student at an Ivy League university, will study Great Depression II and convince himself he knows what Bernanke did wrong;  hide your babies"

Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

I think it would be interesting to see the worst predictions for 2010.

In doing so, one cannot deny the undisputed champion - Dick Bove.   He might be the only bull in the Wall Street community (community - lol) that could not find a way to make money in 2010.

Mr. Hairy Face's top picks for 2010?  Banks!  Banks!  Banks!  

In particular, his favorite humping posts were GS, C, BAC and Wells.  

Could it be that Dick Bove is the only person that lost money in 2010?  Obviously, the sebaceous glands in his face responsible for his beard growth are sucking so much energy away from the brain that it has affected his cognition.  He should spend less time being concerned that his face will be cold, and more time directing nutrients to other regions of the body - namely, the frontal cortex.  

Hulk's picture

Well done Chindit13, but technically inaccurate. "Bitchez" is not a permutation of "bitches" as it contains a 'z'..

Au and Ag Bitchez! This Biatchie is going down fast!

moneymutt's picture

Robo in promise keepers, that was my favorite

Calmyourself's picture

Nicely done..

TD is Harry Wanger reminding us to stay in the here and now..

penisouraus erecti's picture

#5 - sounds like "Monday Night Rehabilitation" from the movie Idiocracy......

lots of tards livin kick-ass lives out there............

mikhail kalashnikov's picture

Ya know, it is a good thing our president has a 3 point plan...

penisouraus erecti's picture

South Carolina Representative # 1: That's what you said last time, dipshit!

rlouis's picture

I predict by late 2011 overseas private security contractors of the US gov. go on strike because even with outrageous high pay and low taxes, the $$ won't buy sh** overseas.

TruthInSunshine's picture

I am predicting that income tax rates will revert to 1914 levels and exposure:


In 1914, the income tax applied to less than 4% of Americans. The top marginal rate was 3%, while the overwhelming majority of the less than 4% who did pay any income tax paid 1%:

Rep. Cordell Hull introduced the first income tax law under the newly adopted Sixteenth Amendment. He proposed a graduated tax starting with a 1-percent rate for incomes between $4,000 and $20,000 increasing to a top rate of 3 percent for those earning $50,000 or more. The House Ways and Means Committee called upon citizens to "cheerfully support and sustain this, the fairest and cheapest of all taxes. . . ."

The first tax collection day under the new law took place on March 1, 1914. Since the average worker earned only about $800 a year, few people actually had to pay any federal income tax. Less than 4 percent of American families made an annual income of $3,000 or more. Deductions and exemptions further shrank the pool of taxpayers. Nevertheless, the federal government collected $71 million that first year. Millionaire John D. Rockefeller alone paid an estimated $2 million.

All in all, most Americans thought the new tax was a great idea. One taxpayer wrote to the Bureau of Internal Revenue, "I have purposely left out some deductions I could claim, in order to have the privilege and the pleasure of paying at least a small income tax. . . ."


BRIA 11 3 b The Income Tax Amendment: Most Thought It Was a Great Idea

Pez's picture

Here's a couple:

Paris Hilton donates Tax Refund to Michigan: Unemployment drops to .5%

SEC to be acquired by Goldman Sucks in effort to reduce government debt. (Oh sorry, this happened already.)

Cars now made at the GM plant run on non-carbon emitting fuels formulated by Al Gore. Thank you "Clean Coal" quips Obama.

Bush, "Chin"ney, Rumsfeld, et. al. extradited to Gitmo for surreptitiously causing Iraq War.



jeff montanye's picture

and bush, et. al., require extradition because gitmo is sold to raul castro who takes cuba public following fidel's death and uses the funds (from the fed in q.e. 4) to buy the base rights back to make a terrorist theme park.

Husk-Erzulie's picture

Really amusing, thank you...avuncular, such a lovely word. :-))

Reuters will report that Facebook has officially beat out as the most visited website on the web.... Oh, wait

moneymutt's picture

what's so wrong with letting us use the discount window, I'd love to get a zero percent interest loan for few 100 billion and buy Treasuries with it...I would even use my "earnings" to stimulate the economy, I promise.