The Only Chart That Matters From Today's Empire Manufacturing Index

Tyler Durden's picture

The Empire Manufacturing Index came out at 21.70, on expectations of 17.00, reversing the recent downward trend seen in other diffusion indices. The full release is here. The only chart, however, that matters is the following: Prices Paid.

From the report:

Price Increases Continue to Pick Up

Price increases continued to accelerate in April. The prices paid index moved higher for a fifth month in a row, increasing 4 points to 57.7, with 60 percent of respondents reporting higher prices over the month. The prices received index advanced 6 points, to 26.9, its highest level since mid-2008. Employment indexes were positive, indicating that employment levels and hours worked rose. The index for number of employees climbed an impressive 14 points to 23.1, and the average workweek index fell 5 points to 10.3.

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snowball777's picture

Gas goes up. PPI goes up. Unemployment goes up. The market...

I am Jobe's picture

QE3, QE4. F the bitchez in the Govt. Clueless idiots.They have never worked a day in their life and buch of idiotic Harvard BJ idiots running this country. hang em all high.

DispenzPez's picture

"never worked a day in their life and buch of idiotic Harvard BJ idiots running this country"

Yep, manipulating language for personal gain.

Hang em high...or Reno's fate:


Gully Foyle's picture


But does that mean SS gets an increase next year? I imagine there a lot of pissed off seniors right about now two years and no raise while prices skyrocket.

snowball777's picture

You can almost make out their vocoder-assisted cries...something about "CPI, CPI, a bump like that is like spit in your eye"...I dunno...the colloquialisms are difficult to parse correctly when their dentures are loose.

This is the same CPI that "Ryan's Privates" vouchers would be indexed to, right? Like the horrible twisted love child of fiat and coupons.

Hephasteus's picture


Or groupon if you're really fucking perverted and shit!!!!

Caviar Emptor's picture

Biflation, baby. Inputs will keep rising while the real economy continues to deflate (along with housing and employment and real incomes). 

It's not stagflation (like in the 70s). We should be so lucky: because back then incomes were rising nearly as fast as prices. That set off a war on incomes. That's called supply-side economics. And it has worked: real incomes have declined since 1981. That's 30 years of declining buying power. That's what set up the crash and depression since 2008


oklaboy's picture

me thinks you are on to something there

MonsterBox's picture

things you don't need go down.  the stuff you gotta have to live go up.    stagflation.


i got the 1040 blues

snowball777's picture

Which way does real estate go?

I am Jobe's picture

Morgan Stanley fund fails to repay $3.3 bln debt on Tokyo property

Well they handed over the keys to Blackstone

flattrader's picture

Why continue to pay on a building that has declined in value and my soon be uninhabitable due to radiation?

I expect to see more of this. It's just starting to get interesting

Long-John-Silver's picture

It's going nowhere but down. It's been nationalized. No one actually "owns" property. You rent it in the form of property taxes and they can seize it via eminent domain.

Josh Randall's picture

Move those factories from Japan back to the rust belt of the Midwest, time to stop all this Tom Foolery and come back home

snowball777's picture

Ummm....let's build new factories instead.

Bleeping Fed's picture

Right, because union-friendly rust-belt states are so accomodating to business...

Seer's picture

Just how fucking stupid are people?

It's mainly ROBOTS making shit, making shit that people CANNOT afford.

Yeah, let's move a bunch of old paradigm shit to the US so that we can, well... people just can't seem to let go of stupid-assed fantasies.

Josh Randall's picture

Easy Seer - just having some fun this morning. Besides the new hope and change for Detroit is Amsterdam-inization:

Quote du jour:

"Don’t let any self-appointed, self-righteous person say we couldn’t do it,” Fieger added. “The city of Detroit couldn’t get any worse.”

Hephasteus's picture

Mommy why is the gym teacher making me do 500 situps a day and 2 hours of walking in stripper heels?

bob_dabolina's picture

Prices the same as back when the unemployment rate was 4% and everyone was drunk on excessive liquidity.

No wonder there are so many on wealth stamps

RobotTrader's picture

The market is not pricing in QE3.

It is pricing in an economic boom, led by the U.S. consumer.

That is why BIDU is trading at $150/share and AAPL is at $340/share, not Newmont Mining or Goldcorp.


Johnny Lawrence's picture

CANSLIMers aren't supposed to have opinions.  They just read charts and look at earnings.  Keep your economic analysis to yourself because it's retarded.

PY-129-20's picture

"led by the U.S. consumer"

Dream on, Sunnyboy.


"Hunger is on the rise in the New York City. Seven hundred thousand more people get food stamps in the New York City today than did five years ago, according to Joel Berg of the Coalition Against Hunger. In all, the Coalition estimates, there are 2 million people in the five boroughs who get food stamps now.  "We are facing a very serious situation when it comes to the poor," Berg told me. "Food pantries and soup kitchens are struggling to meet the demand. There are actions in Washington that pose new threats to the hungry, including Republican efforts in the House to cut the WIC program that serves women, infants and children." more here


"The number of Idahoans who now depend on food stamps isn’t just high — it’s scary. According to the Wall Street Journal, the head count of Idahoans taking food stamps has climbed every month since October 2007, hitting 223,347 in December. Back in 2007, 87,232 people got food coupons. Let’s put that into context: 223,347 is a number equivalent to 14 percent of Idaho’s population; that’s more people than live in Boise. The growth in food stamp use is so dramatic that Idaho’s major supermarket chains say they’re having trouble handling all the people who come in to restock their pantries on the first of the month. --- And the list goes on and on...
oklaboy's picture

I think he was being scarcastic...and yes, with that data, and others, were will it go? 

Absinthe Minded's picture

No there was no sarc there. Robo sees skittle shitting unicorns as far as the eye can see. We're only limited by our pessimism. Sometimes I wish I was on as much Prozac as him.

NumberNone's picture

This can't be right.  Plosser was just on CNBC rubbing oil on Liesman's hairy back and blowing in his ear saying inflation is not a problem. 

snowball777's picture

You gotsta soothe...or he gets all "Ballmer"ed up and just shits every-where.


Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Liesman reminds me of the prototypical little corporate toad running around getting the boss coffee and agreeing with everything he says. I'm convinced Liesman actually believes he has market influence because of his brilliance rather than his Hoover like suction power.

lieutenantjohnchard's picture

good observation. i've seen guys just like him in real time when working for a big outfit. he's galling.

Hephasteus's picture

He's the poster child for obsequious. They should compile video clips of him to use for the definition of obseqious in the 27th meriam webster dicionary.

RobotTrader's picture

Crude and copper getting hammered.

Bonds up.

Stocks up.

John Law Lives's picture

Do you get paid by the post?  Maybe an extra squirt of oil in the servos?

Seer's picture

Slinky down the staircase... Getting excited about the upward arc without seeing the trend is a bit myopic.  I seem to recall that over the longer-term stocks have sucked big time.

Pool Shark's picture


Stocks up?

Umm... no.

(p.s., how's GOOG working out for you Robo?)



Absinthe Minded's picture

Don't you get tired of the Junks? What is it some kind of badge for you. How can you look at what's going on right now and feel anything good about it? We have a $1,000,000,000,000+ deficit and they're fighting over a lot less zero's than that and celebrating that they hammered out an agreement. For less than a percent of the deficit. Doesn't that scare the shit out of you?

tmosley's picture

Such stupidity.  Price action in the last month:

USDX: -2.1%

S&P500: +3.1%

Gold: +6%

Brent: +10.7%

WTI: +12.5%

Silver: +25%

Time to hang up the trader's hat, chum.  And I mean rotting fish used for feeding sharks, not friend.

George Costanza's picture

money printing induced inflationary crack up - we are living history as it repeats itself

John Law Lives's picture

Prices keep rising.  It must be because of the strong economic recovery and organic growth demand.  It must be true because Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy said so...

Zardoz67's picture

The index seem releted to the BDI until 2-2009, after it goes alone. Really possible a so different trend?


PulauHantu29's picture

ZH posted a great chart awhile ago showing how (and why) the BDI chart is so out of wack with prices.....The BDI reflects demand (which is very low) but the rising prices reflect inflation and inflation protection results.

I'd be interested to hear other thoughts.

SheepDog-One's picture

Theyre unable to pass along higher costs to the public. For now companies have to mop up that cost themselves, like a pressure cooker it will blow margins to hell.

Zardoz67's picture

Yes, I agree, is there a way to undertand the difference between the increase due to quantity and due to prices, and relate the first with BDI?

Zardoz67's picture

An Empire Manufacturing Index deflated at gld price? 

alfred b.'s picture

the whole cnbc team always bends over for any Fed Res rep; you'd think they were li'l kids getting their first taste of candy...and don't get me started on that Sick Rantelli !!