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Open (Contributor) Thread II
The Iran-abandoning-the-dollar headline turned into an open thread yesterday---300 comments and counting. At this point it is getting to be difficult to navigate. There you go...
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i re-read your piece and i believe it is most reasonable and still applicable. seems like exhaustion gaps on low vols.
so, what's everybody think of the Obama insurance company tongue lashing today? it does seem to me that he has gotten a bit more testy and aggressive about it? the O is talking about pulling the anti trust candy and Harry Reid came out and pretty much sealed the deal. hoping robo keeps an eye out on the health insurers for monday.
See hear dead
http://townhall.com/cartoons/2009/10/15/6
that's some funny shit! loved the exemption for members of congress; it may give Charlie Rangel ideas.....
more like h/t printing press
speaking of the stock market and all, I was hoping to get some input on this trade I'm considering. All of the following are jan 10 options:
25% TBT 57 calls
25% XOM 85 calls
30% GOOG 440 puts
and the rest is split between UUP and some gold ETF, havent decided which one yet..
to be honest all these look cheap enough. XOM just broke out from a wicked 8 month old triangle, rates are prone to go higher with the end of QE and google has just been on fire lately so its due for some sort of pullback.
well with the end of qe, betting on rising rates is market neutral. rising rates could trigger a crash in equities...since now the only way to keep treasury prices high is to scare investors into them. the GOOG is intentionally aggressive since I figure the only way that the other bets dont make it is if we see a serious crash.
The only thing that would make this trade suck IMO is if we just have a minor pullback for the next three months and I just cant see that happening. Things are definitely not stable now.
i don't follow tech closely anymore, but amzn sure seems like a better put than goog. their p/e is ridiculous, and walmart is jamming it up their ass in a magnificent price war that has just started. they sell books for pete's sakes, this is the USA.
hmmm you may be right...fundies might just be that fundamentals play a part here. the chart also looks weaker compared to goog since amzn has already broken its trend. I may split some part of the goog bet into a 75 amzn put.
has never stayed above 95 for very long
Look at the chart of 30-yr yields ^TYX since 1977. You will see a long-term unbroken downtrend in treasury yields that remains intact. Look at the current yields on Japanese govt. bonds. Their 30-yr is at 2.26 and has been low for decades. Ask yourself whose economy most reflects our future? I'd say Japan's. People cannot afford higher interest rates. People are not borrowing at low rates. Why would they borrow at a higher rate? Banks can't give money away right now, not that they want to. Lending is virtually non-existent. Higher rates would cause even more credit contraction. The long end of the curve reflects inflation expectations. Even if the Fed Funds Rate increases, which I don't think it will, that will not affect the long end of the curve. The bond market is not pricing in the same level of inflation that the stock market is. I have more faith in the bond market's predictions. I believe 30-yr treasury yields will bottom around 2.5 pct in 2-3 years. I expect the yield will move downward over the next few weeks and hit about 3.8 in the first week of November. (TLT should be at about $105 then.) In early January, I expect the 30-yr yield will be at about 3.5 pct unless the stock market crashes before then, in which case yields should be even lower. IMO, you'll see a payoff will TLT calls, not TBT. I think everyone is about to off-risk, and there isn't anyplace to do that except in USD and treasuries. Gold is highly correlated to equities right now. In the very short term, it's part of the risk trade.
well I cant pull up a chart of japans rates but I would be willing to bet that the only time that they went down was when the stock market began crashing again...so I am guessing by your analysis that you dont think that stocks will keep heading higher and that the risk-on trade will once again rule, right?
I just cant see that with so much mbs and agency qe remaining. And the bond market is not really a market anymore so I cant say that its making any prediction.
Im not betting on a fed funds increase, just the fact that in order to lure foreign investors into us debt they wold have to let rates rise for longer dated treasuries. US is different from Japan in that it is much more political this time around, if that makes any sense. They dont want to rely just on the short end of the curve.
Right- I am betting that equities will decline. IMO, the market has priced in a mild recession, and this is one of a different color. The only question is how long the powers that be can keep the equities party going. It seems there are many ticking bombs that any one of a number of things - or nothing substantial at all - could set off to precipitate the next decline. Folks won't have to be lured into treasuries. They'll flee just like they did last year. Even if the market doesn't crash before the end of the year, the odds that the trend in long-term yields will reverse appear low. Long-dated treasuries will start to look quite appealing when people recognize that what we have is not a short-term problem. Again, Japan's a pretty good indicator. With baby boomers beginning retirement and an increasingly older populace, we're not going to see the kind of growth that govt. pundits are peddling.
Interesting article i surfed up. Semi on topic, don't know if this was posted earlier in some other form
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/KJ14Dj04.html
Thanks. Very alarming. So, this may the currency event predicted by Jim Sinclair. SGA
i love you andy....
LOL
Andy, did your wife/girlfriend/taker write that?
I bought dollars for the second time in 23 years on Friday.
Yen, Euro and Pound all look heavy w/ Japanese honeymoon over, Gordon Brown on the way out and Romania insolvency.
the pound is in much worse shape than th dollar IMO.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/10/whats-driving-this-mark...
if you post pictures, they will come. just say they are "charts" lol.
marla in a bikini would be nice....
the shear madness in her makes her one of the most sexy women alive. i love insane women, and this is my dream one. + 100000 for the pic Andy
monochrome
MORE.MEAT.
P.S. Why no music again ?
Thanks Andy. I love the monochrome. At least Marla shares more than one Friday a month with us with the creative energy of jana of course.
Niall Ferguson on Bloomberg Oct 16
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=video&T=Harvard%27s%20Ferguson%20...
April 22, 2004 11:24 EDT *a cache of a now deleted Bloomberg article on Timmay and his appointment to the NY Fed - (good read)
Timmay featured in a now deleted Bloomberg article in 2004
wow...that seems to be a significant change, eh?
I think many of us are reaching that conclusion. You either own metals as a hedge for the longer term (thinking 2011-12) and hyperinflation or watch your assets dwindle. Don't sweat the market gyrations in metals with the next leg down in equities. The COT report has been neutral for some time and the only thing that could trouce gold would be liquidation for other needs. That said, all markets don't go down or up in a straight line unless you are in a bubble, including the dollar since the bottom in March in equities. I still believe that the dollar will bounce and give greater opportunities in other currencies and solids. Since I am moving to Canada, while resource rich, they depend on exports and a strong neighbor below. Barring a Middle East war which would inflate oil and boost the Canadian dollar merely because of that, there is a symbiotic relationship between the two countries. It will be interesting to see if Harper and his cronies ramp up the printing presses like Ben when times get tough or have a longer term view that saves their currency, resources and world domination in water. At this point, I don't care. I have made my choices and will live with them.
Excellent Howard. I am looking strongly at B.C. sometime next summer for many of the same reasons.
All The Best
And all the best to you. Hang in there!
Same for you.. I was getting a bit concerned there for you. Acceptance is a beautiful thing.
got it. thx for sharing your thoughts Andy.
i was looking at danerics' stuff, he put up a chart of the BKX....i noticed that it blew through 50 and 200 day...any thoughts from you on this one from a tech view? I would be most interested.
edit...chart http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/Stom5gRPntI/AAAAAAAACNI/avizDEwaK0E/s1600-h/bkx15.png
$8?
HA HA HA! ok...i'll one down myself. 6.66.
Double post. Deleted by HAL.
Hi DH--The BKX is doing it's job in this bear market rally. How nice traders are loading up on a banking system that is totally unstable....ha. I still think JPM gets to $52-$55 before the rally is over--an amazing expanding triangle from 2006 which is the most bearish of all technical formations. I'm just waiting for it to get there so I can load up on long term puts. Since the BKX does not share the same chart pattern as JPM it is basically just resembling the S&P in terms of retracement--although it is losing momentum and seriously underperforming if you look at a 3 month. I just stay aware of the MA's and don't use them too much in trading decisions. Put the BKX on top of the S&P and you can see it is losing steam. In reality , it is flat since late August. Energy/materials stocks are primarily boosting the S&P. When banks are along for the ride, it seems to be minimal in terms of velocity relative to other sectors.
Never underestimate Santa.
i appreciate you guys sharing...thanks.
I would love to stay up and continue this thread but the swine infected daughter was seeing ponies and rainbows and FROGS on the wall--covered her in cold washcloths for the fever and she passed out in seconds. I am off to sleep on the floor next to her. Hope you all stay clear of Wilbur--as we call it--it's nasty. Have a good night.
seems to me that bkx is out of steam or really close to it. on a short term basis, this p.o.s. sector is due for at least a sector rotation out. wfc report will be highly interesting, particularly in regard to how much they reserve.
nice detailed analysis howard...thank you for taking the time and for sharing your knowledge! i watch the banking sector closely and have for years but have been careful about trading it in the last 3 months (i was heavy long in late feb and march cuz i knew those phucks would bail the banks til the end of time no matter what, lol!).
I have been watching the bkx v spx r'ship and your assessment sure does seem correct to me. thanks again!
Go Jeter...Yankees!
Sqworl. I hope you were able to find a bit of humor in the GI Joe clip earlier.
The only New York baseball club I like is the Giants.
<3
Go Barrichello my son !!!!!! ( i presume you know what F1 is and who is Barrichello )
Francesco Guerreraat the FT writes an article on the ticking clock to the next bit in the financial crisis, or the next one depending on viewpoint. This plays like one more turn of a worn out 45. However, if anyone is interested in some...
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/290b886e-ba8a-11de-9dd7-00144feab49a.html
In a bit of; "Naw.. say it aint so on QE" from the UK.
Mr Bean (deputy governor for monetary policy at the Bank of England) revealed that the policy was not designed to get banks to lend more, as many commentators had thought, but to target and push up asset prices. He explained: “So if the asset purchase facility buys gilts from pension funds or asset managers, they will then have to look for another home for their money. As it is not very rewarding just to hold it on deposit, they are likely to look to put their money into other assets, including equities and corporate bonds.”
The rest: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1b71e3b0-ba8a-11de-9dd7-00144feab49a.html
seems like a genuine moment of candor.
seems like Alex Jones or at least his contributors are moving uptown so to speak
History Unfolding
David Kaiser
DAVID KAISER, Associate Professor of the History of Science, Program in Science, Technology & Society, MIT; Lecturer, Department of Physics, MIT
Infowars
October 17, 2009
I am a student of history. Professionally, I have written 15 books on history that have been published in six languages, and I have studied history all my life. I have come to think there is something monumentally large afoot, and I do not believe it is simply a banking crisis, or a mortgage crisis, or a credit crisis. Yes these exist, but they are merely single facets on a very large gemstone that is only now coming into a sharper focus.
Something of historic proportions is happening. I can sense it because I know how it feels, smells, what it looks like, and how people react to it. Yes, a perfect storm may be brewing, but there is something happening within our country that has been evolving for about ten to fifteen years. The pace has dramatically quickened in the past two...
Thank you
Just more right wing rabble rousing claptrap..........Obama as Hitler, again........give us a break.........
Why don't you go back to Huff Post and lick the boots on Ariana's feet. Maybe Obama will send you a welfare check with some extra in it. Dear Sir if you think that you are more qualified than an MIT professor; you're not. Also, give ACORN a call and show them this comment; i bet they will set you up with some affordable housing. And if you have any children, Obama youth booth camp is the place for the next summer camp location.
Bush or Obama.. In the areas of governance that matter what pray tell is the difference between the two DrPsycho?
*crickets*
This is crap. It's been circulating around the internet since April...Dr. David Kaiser didn't write this.
http://historyunfolding.blogspot.com/2009/05/foreign-policy-wisdom.html
Long setups in oil service which I'm watching....
Looking for the Baltic Dry Index to turn up and get some of these dogs to start barking:
Low risk entry points right now:
Compelling charts.
My monthly indicator for the USD is still giving bullish warnings.
Will the USD rally when DOW bear market rally ends ?
I warned of an impending stockmarket crash back in early *2007*
www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
+1
One interesting reading,
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/KJ17Ag01.html
Iran blaims US of the latest suicide bombing
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0164b2d2-bbc9-11de-9426-00144feab49a,Authorised=...
Is it just me, or is Krugman a complete moron?
I just watched him on Step n Fetch, he has no fing clue!
George Step n Fetch questioned Axelrod on various points, and the only answer he got was GS should rethink its bonus! Somebody just shoot me!!!!
Looks like the start of a revolution to me: * "Iran to Clean Forex Reserves from US Dollar." http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8807250493 * "Latin American leaders have agreed on the creation of a regional currency to scale back on the use of the US dollar." http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jisHEg79Cz8uRtYfZR6WK4JmWsIg * "Russia ready to abandon dollar in oil, gas trade with China" http://en.rian.ru/russia/20091014/156468599.html Any bets on the market moves tomorrow?
If the patriots win, market goes down, if they lose market go down big time. Only support right now for the market is tom brady.
Good analogy, TD ;-)
Get ready for another version of "Patriot Games" - but this time it might not be so funny...
The key reason Iran is planning to abandon the dollar is that it likely faces a US-led effort to freeze its bank assets if things do not go well in the nuclear weapon inspection/negotiation process. By shifting its financial assets and, in particular, its oil pricing to other currencies (notably the Japanese Yen--a key customer along with China), Tehran can largely avoid any adverse impact from an attempt to freeze/seize it international reserves. That such a move has the advantage of maybe eroding confidence in the USD is merely a fortuitous side effect from Tehran's perspective.
...as usual, Tehran is one-step (at least) ahead of the USG....
How does Iran then acquire assets from the US companies doing business even now.