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Open Post: The Holiday Default Effect?
Far be it from us to be so cynical as to suggest that financial disclosures might be delayed to fall on the deaf ears of absent markets (Dubai related evidence notwithstanding) but who else might we expect dire tidings from this long weekend? Whither Failure Friday?
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You know it baby.
roasting
Well, on the humorous side i am going to guess the secret service aren't going to be having a great weekend.
Should one be a bit worried (and very amused) that those charged with running the United States cannot even police their own party?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/25/AR2009112504113_pf.html
Why would anyone want to harm the POTUS?
Be like attacking the dummy on a ventrioquist's knee.
and here is more on Michaele Salahi
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Michaele-Salahi/101907941877
Is it me or isn't VP Biden's left hand a tad high, perhaps approaching the bra strap?
This is what's wrong with america
I feel sorry for the poor sap who married her. Hope he got a prenup.
I hate to say it, but I honestly think we're going to see a lot more of this type of behavior in the future; especially considering that anyone that draws breath can seemingly get a reality TV shot.
Troubling, to say the least.
Totally disagree. This is the kind of stuff that makes America great! Nothing better than embarrassing your Head of State, along with his impenetrable security detail, all while proving that the Average Joe roaming the streets has a shot (just like anyone else) at his very own 15 seconds of fame.
Huge buyer here.
[Sarcasm light is glowing brightly]
You've been punked !
Well, considering the level of (politically-motivated) anger and resentment ever since the last election, I would say it is a lot more worrying than amusing.
This shows every gun-toting all-american nut that it's possible to get very very close to the President (and VP) if you look and talk the part. How long until there is the first assassination attempt on either the President or his family?
(Please note that this NOT something that I advocate or support in any way, shape or form - I am just concerned)
Seriously, I hope a lot of Secret Service people are fired or demoted over this. Checking names of guests versus an official list is not difficult.
And, on a ZH-related note, Dubai sovereign CDS would be peanuts compared to such an attempt.
Anton, consider yourself flagged@whitehouse.gov
The key is not to try to get into the party, the key is, how to get rid of the building while all the scum are inside.
I can't believe it has come to that.
Which building is Fox News located in?
TIA
Let's see.... Negative interest rates right before a holiday week with light trading in the states and suddenly major sovereign concerns come out all over the world.
I wonder if there's a link?
(and for the unthinking... that's called sarcasm)
Coincidence.
SLP shorting their float/floating their short:
GS 11.25.jpg
Visual aid.
http://cache3.asset-cache.net/xc/200184415-001.jpg?v=1&c=NewsMaker&k=2&d...
Inquiring minds ...
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2009/11/who-knew.html
If I were Latvia (facing default for some time) I would use this opportunity to say... "Us too!" It would be a kind of political cover...it's not just them...hey, look at Dubai
ukraine still negotiating the sale of their souls, to buy some time
As my Greece bonds are about to go TU, next time I'm in Athens, I will be foreclosing on my share of the Parthenon.
I think in Washington that's sometimes called "greater fart theory."
I'm not going to lunch at San Pietro tomorrow. The largest concentration of wealth will be there bleeding from the ears and losing it all.... ...Im slapping on my bullet proof bra and kicking back at the ZH lounge all day!!!
Do you think Charlie Gasparino will be at San Pietro to chronicle Black Friday?
No, we rescheduled for next week..lol
Long gold, short term short S&P is good for the next 2 weeks imo.
When nobody is watching and only few are paying attention, most have forgotten about the immediate "collapse" and the "crisis".. the money gets sucked from the markets... not so much to get people concerned.. bills need to be paid, c'mon folks where is your spirit.
share your profits with Wall Street (and Dubai banks and others).. don't be greedy!
And watching the Dax futures while the US was closed... they managed to squeeze it higher at the end as usual. now I wonder why that is!
apart from being a type of Canary (this one named Jumeirah), the size of the "default" is a fraction of the Emirates' SWF assets estimated to be in the $600b range - so it would seem that apart from the usual suspects who have exposure to the $60b (similar to Iceland)- this is like a half day at the printing presses for Ben - Are the markets over reacting or has the domino theory been brought back to life?
http://www.swfinstitute.org/funds.php
Half a day? I think Ben can print that while sitting on the toilet.
And there's probably an app for that, too.
"...has the domino theory been brought back to life?"
When did dominoes stop knocking each other down? Did I miss something? Did the laws of the universe change?
This tells me that exchange insiders want to take the market down without too much public participation.
In other words, insiders don't want to accumulate too much inventory. If I'm right, the market is at the tippy top of the rally.
Well said!
How much pressure can build up in the piping of all these inter-connected systems before gaskets start to blow? Actually, eff that, before we get multiple & simultaneous ruptures?
Dubai, or how to borrow, spend and ultimately waste 90+++ bl in pix:
http://www.mebanefaber.com/2009/11/26/du-buy/
Guess what?
THE NEWS DON'T MATTER
Its just an excuse =)
The defaults now occurring are the first in a row of dominoes. As these properties decline it will have an effect on their other properties valuations causing more losses which will cause more defaults... etc. This is always just the first step. It's the unforeseen derivatives and intertwined investment losses that cause a liquidity crunch on the world stage. Add in Latvia, Ukraine, California, New York, CMBS, Alt-A, Option Arms, US Sovereign debt, Japan Debt to GDP and whatever else you want to throw in and it takes just a small spark to cause a huge fire. Did anyone just see that swan fly by?
Speaking of default, there are grumblings that quite a few Americans plan their own stimulus package by racking up huge credit card bills buying gifts and then defaulting on their cards and jungle mail the keys to their homes. Not what I would do or condone, yet a personal stimulus package for the people.
Personally, i vote to starve the beast and so will not shop for the holidays. If you want to be biblical like Jesus received from one of the three wiseman, get gold.
can we plese gat one more radio zero
Tel Aviv:
Saudi Arabia, Dubai:
Kuwait, Abu Dhabi:
UAE to see significant growth next year
26/Nov/2009
Business 24|7
Recovery in the UAE is strong and might come as a surprise on the upside in 2010, specialists in financial services industry said.
"We are growing significantly even as the growth rate we are forecasting is half of what we saw in 2008," said Marios Maratheftis, Regional Head of Research, Standard Chartered. "There is a good possibility that growth rate of 2010 might surprise on upside even if it does not reach the heights of 2008. ... Neven Hendricks, COO, Corporate Finance, Mena, Deloitte Corporate Finance, said: "Dubai has tightened up its regulation significantly, it is in fact the role model of regulation in the Gulf, I do not see the problem with hot money being as great if it was into the future."
http://www.gulfbase.com/site/interface/NewsArchiveDetails.aspx?n=117700
Had the Dubai default had anything with spike in ICE? Just an afterthought..
Chinese Auntie must have her rice panties in a knot...cannot arrow debt junkies to miss Black Friday sales of cheap chinese toxic plastic exports...Make sure to have SEIU crowd control outside Walmart begining at 4:00am. Any and all declined credit cards will be honored by US government.
No news within 10 miles of all Walmart stores!
They're opening at midnight here... will be monitoring popo scanners for any disturbances in the force (as it/they were).
Cheers to all ZHers this fine American holiday!
Open 24 hours here....
*** Investors need not worry ***
This conspiracy was treacherously perpetrated against what We, The People (of the United States), hold dear (The Fed, The US Treasury and Goldman Sachs) on a day when aforementioned institutions and the honorable "Plunge Protection Team" were celebrating (especially GS) the National Holiday, and couldn't, for a short period of time, defend the "orderly" devaluation of the USD.
I repeat, Investors need not worry:
While the bums and simply unemployed will line up in front of Best Buys and Wal-Marts at 3AM, the really hard-working teams from the Fed, GS, and the PPT team will be already hard at work! The S&P futures will gap to +15, the USD will resume "orderly" decline, and the shiny yellow stuff will do...whatever the heck it will!
In conclusion, Special thanks to our partners in the "coalition of the willing" - the Brits - who displayed true heroism in attempt to sabotage LSE trading. Unfortunately, with hotline to 85 Broad St. remaining "cold" for the duration of the holiday, the blokes from across the pond obviously had limited success. But, I hope their effort will still earn them favorable mention in Lloyd B-fein's ledger.
Let's unwind the mother of all carry trades!
The FX war has just entered into a new dimension
Watch the Yen: at its all time high since 1995!!!!
Japan is the second biggest economy in the world.... Poor exporters.... Traders are testing the nerves of the blinded governement. At what level are they going to intervene?
Just remember, the dubai story is a tree hiding the forest when you bravely cast a glance at the CRE time-bomb!
Happy Thanksgiving from France!
Euro banks are scared shitless. Chatter is mind numbing from Credit Suisse and UBS.
This is going to get ugly. Brace yourselves.
one domino at a time..
By Toru Fujioka
Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa
Fujii said the government will take appropriate action when
currencies move in a disorderly way. He was speaking to
reporters in Tokyo today.
Thanks Fujii for your remark. Let's have a test of the 80 level....
Pfffffffffff what a pity...
*FUJII SAYS WILL CONTACT U.S., EUROPE ON CURRENCIES IF NEEDED
I would prefer a citibank bankruptcy
It already happened. You can sweep the ones in house under your own rug. Outta house like this, not so much.
Huh?? What are you talking about? Just finished my turkey dinner, turned on cnbc world tv, and saw the futures are positive.
Oh that's right, the assholes over there can't calculate the futures accurately, like bloomberg and fox.
China Limits Speculation in Forex deals
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125917644264364373.html
lol, like the US doesn't? re: Broken ICE trades
good link phaesed and yeah, the cancellation of billions of DX trades was bs (anyone remember one day last year when Gurgle (GOOG) traded down like 200 in the AH and was all cancelled by 5 pm?)
... have you ever tried to take money, meaning cash, out of China?? ALLEGEDLY, there are men's dress shoes made specifically to hold say $12K in $100 bills in each heel and various other subtle ways to take but a few grand in $ out of the country. Allegedly.
I posted this on a another thread but the US futures weren't up any time today from Wednesdays close. They were shown as being up earlier today but they were only up from the halt in trading today and not from Wednesday's close. More f'g monkey business from the exchanges.
Futures are doin just fine (read awful)...
http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/
All in all I have a hard time seeing the PTP letting the stock market tank on Black Friday. However I did just raise all my stop limits about an hour ago.
Ok, I'm still waitin' for the damn turkey to finish cookin' and i couldn't wait no more, i'm drinkin/// and I got one word for the damn fed and any one who used to work for them...
STFU!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
ohhh yeah... and I got something to say to ZH too... can you guys dumb it down a little... 80% of what ya'll got ta say is about 50% over my head....
=]
Thanks for all that you do.. I knowI have a funnny way to say it...
"...and there he wept, when he remembered Zion
Ohhh for the wicked, carry us away from captivity..."
-Bradley Nowell / RIP
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=isodVi5Hu7M
I and I agree
D.O.D. ZH is, well, ZH, because it highlights some of the most unique data/ issues in an almost always, thorough and professional nature.
Know you're partly kidding but as someone who is told on a daily basis to "speak English, not Stamford" ... I typically reply: do you want real analysis or realmoney?
"Change, shi'ite, I guess change is good for any of us ... whatever it takes for any of ya'll ... to get up out ... I'm witcha, I ain't mad atcha." And yes, some of us are, in fact, "tearing up shi'ite out there, kicking up dust, not giving a mother ..."
And for the guy above us laughing (HEHEHE) ... the ES closed 1084.75 at 11:30 and re-opened at 1086.50 at 18:01 with a very predictable 2 pt gap. Whether it is the TICK or the monthly, it is all fractal and we'd be happy to showcase such for anyone who doesn't wanna bother checking out our daily chat room logs.
23:49 and 23:51 1/2 min Bear Triggers, 5 min Half Cycle Top at 23:51 and 1/2 min ADX/ DMI Bear Reverse at 23:52 = the end of Primary Wave 2 (circle) ... ahhhh, doncha just love the smell of Primary wave 3 (circle) in the morning !! ENTIRE bear market upward retrace is over and welcome to THE very onset of the next downleg, which ought be EPIC, IMHO; just my humble opinion.
Daily GC ( gold futures ) and SI ( silver futures ) each showing possible daily Tweezer Tops candlesticks but are FAR from being anywhere near confirmed. ES (S&P futures) JUST missed, by only .25 points from today's open ... from plotting a real body that Bearishly Engulfed the TWELVE previous real bodies ... while not actually registering as such, this MUST be mentioned/ observed.
1071.25 was just grabbed on a very quick stop hunt and we'll put a full review out by tomorrow evening that updates the key equity, commodity and currency markets.
As for Marla's thread ?: our guess: DX/ $USD shorts & the last remnants of "investors" ... whatever the hell that means.
Hope that everyone enjoyed Turkey Day with friends, family and tryptophan ... have a great night and a profitable session!
I guess you might have been joking, but if not sorry, I beg to differ, please do not dumb it down, this site is one of the few outlets which doesn't try to work to the lowest common denominator. You don't need an MBA to understand, knowledge is not locked up in schools, it is available for anyone with a inquiring mind. Platonicity is dangerous and does not tell the whole picture.
Not only interest was negative(as zh was wondering about),but vix closed higher with higher market yesterday. So with divergent market,somebody knew something is coming up. But can't GS donate a small fraction of its bonus towards debt payment and sweep it under the rug and return to the party?or may be they own Dubai Soverign cdss and that will only enhance their bonus?.There is only one business in the world right now that can make money whether what they sell is expensive or cheap:and that is GS. They ought to start selling franchises like Dunk'n Donut.....
To D.O.D. - not 10 minutes before I read your comment, I was thinking to myself, I don't understand 90% of what anyone is talking about here, though I read this blog daily (and sometimes hope it will just 'sink in').
And Anonymous #143424 - I laughed out loud.
The reason you read this site is because, as it is said, "you have ears to hear", and that's a good thing!
Unfortunately, to get the most out of what is discussed here you need a four year college degree with college level courses in macro economics, money and banking, accounting and statistics as well as real life experience/knowledge/pricing of stocks, bonds, options, futures, and various other derivatives at a minimum.
However, it is in our mutual interest that more knowledgeable posters summarize their ideas in layman terms (if possible) in an extra line or two. After all, this site is about truth and leveling the playing field isn't it? We need all the solders we can get.
As an American, I am scared. I want a bailout of Dubai World. This is a systemic problem. Dubai World is too big to fail. Let's just hold our noses and bail them out. If we don't, our entire system will collapse. The only way out of this crisis is to spend more and cut taxes more (for incomes over 500K).
It will be interesting to see how the dollar and gold react to this. Will the flight to safety be to the US$ as before or will it be to gold?
"DUBAI IN DEEP WATER" blares Drudge headline at 9:50pm EST.
Let the games begin.
...and on CNBC here in Asia the futures are only down 13, as compared to Bloomberg, where they're off 188.
Uh, I do. The Federal Reserve Bank of NY does not hold conference calls on a holiday with bond traders along with the US Treasury setting up liquidity guarantees ON A HOLIDAY unless the fan is about to get excrement delivered to it at high velocity.
Nor do certain government owned instutitions trading under $5 have their staff come into Manhattan on Thanksgiving unless it is for a parade party.
When an 85-year old grandma cannot board a regional airline flight from Fargo to Des Moines without get frisked by a gaggle of morbidly obese TSA-types, while a pair of nobodies can waltz into the inner sanctum of the most protected person on the face of the Earth, I feel we have truly reached the pinnacle of human achievement. It seems entirely fitting and proper that our evolution would stop here, coming as it does on the 150th Anniversary of the publication of Origin of Species.
Wouldn't you just love to write Tim Geithner's PAR? Front man on the economy and the financial system, head of the IRS, AND head of Secret Service. He gets my vote as Time's Person of the Year.
And in conclusion, subprime is to 2008 as Dubai is to?
"And in conclusion, subprime is to 2008 as Dubai is to?"
hmmm... this is a toughie... but I'm going to go with Manchester, England Bob...
Nope. That's Abu Dhabi
"AND head of Secret Service" wow chindit, you're right. SS is part of treasury, aren't they? you just flicked a light switch on under the tinfoil cap.
What is everyone so worried about? GS mouthpiece, er, I mean Jim Cramer said we were getting a small correction! GS engineered this so that the public can now get in and take the other side of the equity trade, er, I mean start making money. Now is the time when the public is supposed to be buying RIGHT?!...Right?...right.
The ice age is coming, the sun's zooming in
Meltdown expected, the wheat is growing thin
Engines stop running, but I have no fear
Cause London is drowning and I, live by the river
Will Dubai remind people that Eurobanks have enormous exposure to countries a lot worse off than the bastard Sheikh-let of Abu Dhabi? As traders assess the state of the world as we think we know it, will it bother anyone that exposure-as-a-percent-of-GDP runs from a low of 8% in the US (to EM's) through the 25%-30% crowd (UK, Sweden, Switzerland) all the way up to the mind-numbing 80% level of Austria? Will the interconnections of CDS' across the system, clearly being tested by the Dubai World problem, reverberate in the way AIG did a year ago? Is there still enough belief in the omnipotentcy of Central Banks to print enough fresh lucre to fill in this latest hole? Will all the folks who said they'd load up on silver and gold really do so when they see silver's 4% decline overnight? Will oil's 4% tumble make Abu Dhabi a cheapskate and say "Allah ya teek al 'afiah" to its first cousins down the coast?
It's going to get curioser and curioser, Alice.
I've got a clue...
From a Bloomberg story "'Dubai Dream' May Be Over on Lower Oil Price, Citigroup Says" posted last week:
Citigroup Chairman Win Bischoff said yesterday that the bank has "lots of billions'' of dollars of exposure to Dubai. "I suspect the business model is not a bad one, based on trade, raw materials, services,'' he said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aKyMem0zXVoI
That article is from last year, not last week.
Bischoff has not been chairman of Citigroup for nearly a year; he was replaced by Dick Parsons. Still pertinent is the article, but I wanted to make the clarification.
Holy cow! Gold & Silver down 4% in a few hours. But who's selling???
You and me and Faustian Bargain on the other thread, we all want to know. I'm guessing there is some bad unwinding going on and some of these folks need cash bad to meet their obligations.
this is like when you're on the roller coaster and you're clicking up over the top hill, and suddenly realize how far down it actually is. ought to be a wild ride.
Lol, but not so much! Actually looking better now. Let's just try not to eager too much into buying 'cheap'.
Ops! double post post.
Downward move hit as Arabs woke up....
brother larry & his godwin's godwand?
think about the last month's movement, the IMF gold sales, the comex delivery schedule, the open interest, and the "coordinated" timing of the dubai announcement.
if the final battleground is laid with gold, no one said it's going to be a cakewalk, especially when the nemesis is the dark lord of summers.