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Tyler Durden's picture




 

As Zero Hedge will be unable to post news updates over the next several hours, feel free to use this open thread as a forum for any important developments and observations.

We leave you for the time being with this fascinating special report on emerging markets from The Boeckh Investment Letter: Emerging Market Uprising: What it Means for Investors

 

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Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:56 | 684645 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

Marry me...Tyler will officiate!!!

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:35 | 684467 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

I do not think you can make any long term calls on much of anything.

Without a big Q.E. 2 it will be another round of asset deflation ... The banks are fuck'd.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:49 | 684500 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

Asset deflation is a certainty. Dont be fooled by sectoral inflation rate in independent asset classes such as commodities and metals. That is a mirage. And this time it is not about the unavailability of credit, but about demand for the aforementioned credit. Banks can not lend since there is no demand from the "street" and banks can not de-concentrate the risk associated with the practice of lending because the SP market is officially either dead in some more exotic products, or secondary market is too illiquid for more PV products.

Maybe CLOs and AL backed ABS have some kind of a chance to be sold to investors, but MBS, CMBS, MBS/CMBS/CDS/ABS/ hybrid CDOs or just PV 1 class CDOs no chance at all. But, not to drive this into the wrong alley, the boom that was created by "standardization" of the securitization process will not be experienced again since there is no demand for such instruments, and since there is not demand for such instruments "global" deflation will resume as projected. Sure sectoral inflation will be there for quite some time, but that is, IMO, just FEDs way of trying to "hide" the deflationary environment. In short, it is about VoM, it is not about QE, and the smart investors know that no matter how big QE is it will not suffice to change anything because of the arguments I listed here. Equities are now mainly institutional playground and rather boring. Look at bond [TIPS especially] and SPs default rates. There is your answer.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:17 | 684527 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

With securitizaton broken can they just hide everything offbalance sheet. The s&l crisis, mexico, lots of dirt under that cover.

Will we not have to pay the piper without credit expanding all the crap on credit from the top down ... It really started with ronald early 80's,right, so is housing going to deflate to 1995 or ..... ? Also you expect another dash for dollars as dollar denominated debt needs servicing ...

 

From Total Securitization:

A drastic drop in trading of residential mortgage-backed securities has continued for a fourth consecutive day, according to traders. Last week saw almost $2 billion in trades on Tuesday, but by Friday volume was down to only $300 million. The drop comes as foreclosure moratoriums (TS, 10/15) are beginning to hit the non-agency RMBS universe. RMBS bonds, such as prepayment option ARMs and Alt-As that get most of their cashflows from ...

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/10/27/385056/mbs-trading-takes-a-ti...

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:18 | 684570 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

Thats trading. That is not important. And its all old vintages anyway. Like pre-2008. Lack of liquidity was expected when the strong evidence of discrepancies in mortgage processing and foreclosure emerged. Everyone is prepared for that. And if the put-backs do occur and banks are mandated to buy back at 100c/$ only those BS that carry the securities with an above par value will be damaged, but they have hedged, or are in the process of hedging that risk. Illiquid secondary MBS market means really nothing. Sure it will reduce the income and profits, but from a macro point of view it is a) completely irrelevant to all but the shareholders of the institutions that trade in that market b) most of the damage was done in 2008 and 2009. So, in conclusion, illiquid secondary market is completely normal in this environment and risk associated. 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:38 | 684593 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Thanks.

I dont trade. I just like to read up on this shit, its fun.Came across the word cdo in 2005 and away I went ....

I know you post' from way back on the old zero hedge & was interested in your thoughts.

 

 

How much of global credit was driven by the shadow banks/securitization market ?

Will they have a sudden stop, how will they service debt payment without new credit growth ???

 

 

 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:02 | 684755 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

Tyler covered shadow banking system to very high degree of detail here. I think the figures are around 5-8T or so. I know EUR has a 3T shadow banking system. 

And as for all the info, stats and spreadsheets you need re: debt [and debt related instruments] go here:

http://www.sifma.org/research/research.aspx?ID=10806

All of the data is .xls and is up-dated constantly. So you can model it and "dig" deeper into the whole structure. As for SBS, AIS, search ZH archives or just seek info about jurisdictions which are best known as administration or incorporation areas for alternative investment entities [HF, SIVs etc etc]. Start with Caymans, Luxembourg, Liechtenstein.

 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:33 | 684792 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Thanks again for the help.

I always learn alot from your post.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:06 | 684545 Bob
Bob's picture

Now you're back!

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:19 | 684575 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

Meh. Its an open thread and I am bored and kind of missed you guys and all your bat-shit insanity. Also, Its been quite a time since I discussed this in detail. Its fun. Nice to see you too dude.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:40 | 684606 Bob
Bob's picture

Look, we were both around way back when, CB.  'nuff of this professor emeritus bullshit, man.  You paid your dues . . . and won a whole lotta luv . . .  now get your ass back in the mix!

 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 18:01 | 684660 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

CB: I missed you the most...Had drinky with Tyler and told him that I missed you.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 18:08 | 684673 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

Say hi to The Man from me when you see him next time. I will be in NY soon [in like month and a half], maybe we can meet for drinks.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 18:50 | 684742 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

I would love that...you will be quite shocked, this I promise, we will invite Tyler too!! x

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 18:57 | 684747 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

shocked ? dont poison me a la Litvinenko or something ...

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:01 | 684753 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

more in terms of who I am..lol

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:03 | 684758 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

Do I "know" you ?

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:41 | 684800 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

this is a good chuckle.  i know boris berezovsky personally which is what makes it even funnier - picture the most paranoid individual to roam terra firma thinking he's about to get poisoned.  monty python couldn't write something that good

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:37 | 684794 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

"Look at bond [TIPS especially] and SPs default rates. There is your answer."

 

Glad ur back to commenting... as i get sick of boring chit chat that lacks insight.

Could not agree more. M3/ jobs data suggests just that as well

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:46 | 684804 Cheeky Bastard
Cheeky Bastard's picture

Best macro-indicator, for me at least, are "dirt" bonds since they are directly tied to taxation of CRE, RE activities. Watch those and by extrapolation or induction you basically have the whole macro picture in front of you. Also, thank you for the compliment, and I agree fully re: M3/jobs.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:33 | 684457 JimRogers
JimRogers's picture

CHEEKY BASTARD <3's ANGELO MOZILO, MOODY'S and DECAF

 

 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:53 | 684508 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

Hey!  Nice to see you again!

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 20:53 | 684897 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

you

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:03 | 684373 Peak Everything
Peak Everything's picture

I would like Tyler to do a dispassionate article on the choices we face. For example:

1) Stop Printing

- stock market falls

- GDP falls

- some banks fail

- interest rates rise

- government austerity (higher taxes, lower services)

- unemployment rises

2) Keep Printing

- foreigners reduce buying and holding treasuries

- people begin to swap fiat for physical (commodities, land)

- cost of living increases due to rising non-discretionary prices

- eventually currency collapses

It seems we end up poorer in both scenarios. I'd like to better understand how the two destinations differ.

 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:14 | 684408 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Yes, you are getting poorer:

1 Your property value is deflating...because it was previously ridiculously inflated.

2 Your currency is being debauched because your politicians need to do that to cover the cost of the fact that they figured out how to buy votes with your dollars.

3 Commodity prices are lowering your quality of life because other governments who did not engage in numbers 1 or 2...are putting money into commodities to build out their nations.  And our commodity oriented companies are happy to sell our commodites to those other country's cause they have more money than you.

4 You are getting poorer specifically because of Crazy Uncle Ben Bernanke who is showing himself to be the biggest thief in the history of the world...while other nations stand back with looks of horror on their faces.

5 You are getting poorer because the generation directly in front of you cut you nut sack and sold every last moral principle for a quick buck...so there is nothing behind you for you to stand on.

6 You, like the rest of us, are in the same boat.  WFD!

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:19 | 684428 There is No Spoon
There is No Spoon's picture

stop printing, interest rates rise, saving is rewarded, debt reduction is rewarded, resulting in stronger balance sheets for individuals and the government (government would issue less debt with higher interest rates). dollar gains strength, trade deficit increases, commodity prices stabilize. stable input costs are good for economic growth. increasing trade deficit will increase unemployment in the short term until domestic capital investment increases.

keep printing and the opposite occurs, except unemployment will still increase, even more than in the stop printing scenario, because there will be no way out as the economy structurally deteriorates. a weaker dollar will reduce the trade deficit but exporters won't create jobs here since they build factories elsewhere and are american companies in name only.

stopping printing is the way to improve the economy structurally rather than quick fix propping up.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:36 | 684448 FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

I think you've jumped to the conclusion, as the destinations are so similar that the distinctions will be irrelevant.  The key elements will be government default, mass bankruptcy, much lower standards of living, a high and exponentially rising risk of civil unrest, and ultimately, to use TylerSpeak, a complete domestic (if not global) 'reset'.

The primary distinctions imo are timeline: stop printing and we collapse pretty much in the same manner we were collapsing in Q4-08 (when we began printing).  Keep printing (always the preferred choice of politicians everywhere because it kicks the can to their successor) and they can drag it out longer (a timeline in which, you might say, my survival rate drops to zero)

But from a standard of living/quality of life issue, the destinations are effectively identical, and I fear, after "100 years of Fed solitude", we really are past the 'tipping point' this time

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:05 | 684379 UncleFurker
UncleFurker's picture

 

"Heck of a job, Summers"

Mark that down as the moment Obama truly jumped the shark.

 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:06 | 684381 DocLogo
DocLogo's picture

How about that story about the 50 nukes going off line?

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:57 | 684523 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Move along.. Nothing to see here...

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:59 | 684526 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Another planted story for the "Alien Invasion of 2012?"

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:49 | 684631 DocLogo
DocLogo's picture

I thought the Mexicans already invaded

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:07 | 684383 TheGreatPonzi
TheGreatPonzi's picture

"It seems we end up poorer in both scenarios. I'd like to better understand how the two destinations differ."

Stop printing = lenghty collapse ; keep printing = quick collapse.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:09 | 684393 Peak Everything
Peak Everything's picture

Do you mean time to collapse or time in collapse?

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:09 | 684394 Gloomy
Gloomy's picture

I just got a nice reply to an email I sent to Commissioner Chilton. I copied Gensler. Everyone should really do this. Who knows what might happen.

 

BChilton@CFTC.gov

GGensler@CFTC.gov

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:12 | 684403 redpill
redpill's picture

Now that the Fed is openly asking Primary Dealers how much money it should print, the cycle is complete.  Kind of sad that people think a change of which political party controls the House of Representatives is going to have any impact on the reality of what is happening.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:13 | 684405 putbuyer
putbuyer's picture

I say small QE and market tanks. The pressure has got to be to much for Ben to handle.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:14 | 684410 redpill
redpill's picture

If the PDs want $1T, they'll get $1T

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:47 | 684491 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

If they want $1T they'll get $2T. And they'll like it.

The deflationary whirlpool has us by the balls. It's now inflate like a mo'fo or default, and 33 Liberty don't have 20 fiscal quarters in which to wire their shit up either. They might not have 2 quarters.

This easing into QE2 is a load of dingo kidneys. They're gonna drop the QE hammer so god-damned hard Thor is gonna faint from the shock.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:17 | 684419 tecno242
tecno242's picture

Small QE intially with potential to expand..

market tanks on lack of instant large announcment

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:19 | 684425 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

What's more important than beer?  In honor of deer season, my favorite bushweiser product now comes only in fall camouflage colors.  Anyone else have a problem with that?

At least we know what happened to the pentagon.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 18:06 | 684668 Bob
Bob's picture

Hilarious! I'm . . . just a sec . . . opening one right now!  And to think of all the years and money I spent on finding the perfect brew. 

Gotta luv the cammo

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:20 | 684429 tmosley
tmosley's picture

This looks pretty important, though I would like to get a more reliable source: http://all247news.com/fdic-proposes-25-percent-discount-on-monthly-mortg...

It looks like the FDIC wants to trade a 25% discount for clean titles.  This sounds like a nightmare waiting to happen.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:03 | 684534 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I received an offer this week to refi my VA loan at 2.75% for 30 years. I can't wait to see how much lower they will go in order to clean up my title.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:20 | 684579 Bob
Bob's picture

Have you seen the Note?

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:53 | 684816 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Not yet, I've got to take off from work to travel to the county seat(no website). I also had to research the differences of living in a deed of trust state first, since everything I see is about states with mortgages.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:23 | 684437 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Security is tight as a drum sir.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:40 | 684473 Bob
Bob's picture

+++++

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:24 | 684443 Battleaxe
Battleaxe's picture

Check out this chart from Doug Short's website:

http://dshort.com/charts/Consumer-Metrics-Growth-Index.html?CMI-shift-series-02

It overlays the US GDP, S&P(shifted back one quarter), & the CMI leading indicator (shifted forward one quarter). Pretty ominous.

 

To read the full article see here: http://dshort.com/articles/guest/Ilargi-Thoughts-ahead-of-Q3-GDP.html

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:42 | 684481 erik
erik's picture

Consumer Metrics... I want to believe in their data but the seep through to production is not happening strongly enough as yet.  That demand cliff dive in July/Aug should be showing through in the supply side by now.  Yet we got "improving" regional Fed indexes this month, and are primed for another 54-55 on ISM next week.

I feel like I am waiting for godot on the Consumer Metrics leading data right now.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:38 | 684797 -1Delta
-1Delta's picture

my only explanation is that Con Me data is a summation, while retail sales surveys companies that are not bankrupt, and thus, those that are left obviously have some more sales...

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:54 | 684815 erik
erik's picture

CM founder did a nice write-up this week contrasting his data with govt retail sales.  That was one of his points.  I'd like to believe it, but I am losing faith in CM data as the market goes higher and production keeps going.

My biggest problem with CM data is the late 2008/early 2009 improvement.  How on earth did people spend more money during the crash and afterward?  It seems completely the opposite of what you'd expect.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:33 | 684459 bronzie
bronzie's picture

"More than eight years after the tragedy of September 11, 2001, New York Supreme Court Justice Edward H. Lehner was hearing arguments in a courtroom less than a mile from Ground Zero about a ballot initiative to launch a new investigation of the 9/11 attacks. When the lawyer for the plaintiffs sponsoring the initiative explained that the 9/11 Commission report left many unanswered questions, including “Why did Building 7 come down,” the Judge replied quizzically, “Building what?”"

"Building what?"  this is an American judge who is clueless about the events of 9/11

this is one of my frustrations with my fellow Americans - I can understand the sheeple being clueless - they are sheep - 'nuff said - it is the supposedly educated, intelligent people who are also clueless that causes me to lose hope in my fellow countrymen

http://buildingwhat.org/

and in my cynicism I suspect that this new organization is more interested in self-agrandizement and separating us from our money than they are in actually effectuating any change in this country ... hopefully I'm wrong

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:56 | 684519 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

You'd better watch out, lest Denise Richards take your kids!

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:05 | 684541 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

9/11 (terrorism) is the excuse being used for nearly every crime being committed against us from illegal wars in our name to the destruction of our civil liberties.

How any person with 2 brain cells to rub together doesn't sit back and ponder this -along with the numerous apparent inconsistencies- is beyond my comprehension.

There will NEVER be real change until the truth about 9/11 is exposed. If and/or when that happens, we will see the reset we all (with 2 brain cells) knows is needed..

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:20 | 684569 redpill
redpill's picture

The main problem with 9/11 truther conspiracies is that it would require our government to be 1) capable of it and 2) capable of keeping it a secret.  That requires a massive delusion of seeing our government as being far more competent (and even more sinister) than it really is.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:58 | 684651 DocLogo
DocLogo's picture

Manhattan Project. Afganistan:

Yes. According to the official version of history, CIA aid to the Mujahadeen began during 1980, that is to say, after the Soviet army invaded Afghanistan, 24 Dec 1979. But the reality, secretly guarded until now, is completely otherwise Indeed, it was July 3, 1979 that President Carter signed the first directive for secret aid to the opponents of the pro-Soviet regime in Kabul. And that very day, I wrote a note to the president in which I explained to him that in my opinion this aid was going to induce a Soviet military intervention. - Brzezinski

 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:12 | 684769 umop episdn
umop episdn's picture

Also, it wasn't kept secret that well or that long. Wasn't there a 'spot the Boeing' website in early 2002? And quite a few people were hollerin' about the non-performance of the air force the day after.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 21:49 | 684973 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Covert support for anti-communist forces (and vice-versa) was pretty much what the Cold War was all about.  That and non-covert, open support for same.  Big deal.

Besides, you could also call that "organizing and aiding Muslim resistance against Soviet imperialism."  Probably should have stayed the hell out of that one too but you'd think it would at least have built up a little more good will with the Muslim world than it did.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:58 | 684653 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Your assumptions are off base in light of conspiracies successfully pulled off by our government on a nearly constant basis.  Just to throw one out there, the bombing of Pearl Harbor as the pretense to enter WWII.  Shit, even Public Television and the History Channel have well-sourced documentaries on this.  Now tell me, if they can pull that off, along with other assorted bullshit like the Gulf of Tonkin incident (which was proven fabricated by the very person who fabricated it, again part of the public record and reported on by our federal government via their NPR/NPT radio/TV proxy), why on earth do you think our government isn't capable of getting a small contingent of brown people to fly an airplane into a building, while they blow up said building with nanothermite?  Do you realize how low tech this op is compared to some of the shit they've managed to pull off?

Seriously, 9/11 was not that hard to do. 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:54 | 684819 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Zackly!.. I don't buy this "incompetent government" theory for a moment.. Actually, it's absurd.  Our government makes very few mistakes on the grand scheme of things.. It's much more acceptable to claim or be seen as incompetent than it is evil..  Evil Mastery 101...  I suspect..

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 02:09 | 685240 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

Well you should. Smart crooks are a fantasy. Evil and stupidity = incompetence.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 18:06 | 684665 DocLogo
DocLogo's picture

I think subconsciously, whether people are willing to admit it to themselves or not, people know that IF 9/11 was an inside job then they would have to do something about it. For how could a moral person sit back and allow his or her country to perpetrate such evil? We often ask how the people of Germany could sit back and do nothing during WW2, yet we turn a blind eye to our own country's acts of aggression. I think people would rather accept that big lie one's government tells than be forced to act. In many ways, that big lie is the one we tell ourselves when we accept the propaganda even though we know better.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:45 | 684802 ATTILA THE WIMP
ATTILA THE WIMP's picture

My name is Thomas W. Chittum and I say that 911 was an inside job.

My name is Thomas W. Chittum and I say fuck the NWO and their CIA/MI6/Mossad assassins that pulled off 911.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 20:16 | 684850 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

I have a bad feeling this Thomas guy is your neighbor whose dog is shitting in your yard and digging up your flowers.. LMAO

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 22:40 | 685057 ATTILA THE WIMP
ATTILA THE WIMP's picture

Yes

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:58 | 684824 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Dead nutz Doc... But that only accounts for the cowards and those that are weak of character.. Those that see the shell of mainstream propaganda as thick enough protection..

There are some that just get that deep down clean feeling from hating brown people and controlling the world.. The couldn't care less if 9/11 was an inside job or not.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 23:07 | 684988 Mercury
Mercury's picture

For how could a moral person sit back and allow his or her country to perpetrate such evil?

Because they work for the government and when something very fishy arises (like Zacarias Moussaoui's flying lessons) they are incentivized to just drop it becaue different agencies aren't supposed to share certain kids of information, or it ruffles feathers or it's not my department or it's almost lunchtime or... http://www.city-journal.org/html/12_4_why_the_fbi.html

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 18:11 | 684683 ratava
ratava's picture

i dont even find it ironical it stood on the Barclay street. got a bad hedge? hit it with a plane.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:36 | 684464 Bob
Bob's picture

Show Me The Note. 

The banks are suckering millions of homeowners into refi's on apparent "sweetheart" terms in order to quickly paper over the evidence--and actionable damages--of their unprecedented crimes. 

ZH is not my site, but how many people would like to see it used to mount a campaign to  actively inform and arm homeowners to take the war--and we all know it is at this point truly a war--to the banksters with a tool kit for forcing them to Show Me The Note?

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:47 | 684492 erik
erik's picture

bob, i asked tyler to do the same.  the SEIU involvement scares too many people away.  we need an independent person to do the same campaign.  it needs to happen.  expecting tyler et al to do it is too much on them.  though i agree this site has enough traffic to make it happen in a big way.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:09 | 684549 Bob
Bob's picture

You've seen Fight Club, right?

Time to put us space monkeys to work, imo. 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:38 | 684613 erik
erik's picture

oh yeah, in fact tyler durden was my costume idea for this year.

we are all on ZH for more or less the same reason.  i think it is a shame that we have under-utilized our "enlightenment"

i, like most, am disillusioned and feel helpless to stop the insanity that surrounds us.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 18:22 | 684694 Bob
Bob's picture

i, like most, am disillusioned and feel helpless to stop the insanity that surrounds us.

get a grip, erik!  Helplessness is just a feeling, but it does represent surrender.  Put that fucking white flag down!  Things are just starting to get interesting. 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 20:00 | 684827 erik
erik's picture

Bob, I like your fervor.  How can you not be jaded by the insanity though?  I bought puts (leaps) on Freddie Mac in 2006 and sold them for a loss in mid-2007.  I bought calls on SRS in June 2008, and upon seeing the TARP nonsense decided to sell them (for a loss).  Now, if I admit that I am holding puts right now (leaps), well then I'd be telling the truth.  This time though, I refuse to sell, and that is what worries me!

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 20:52 | 684894 Bob
Bob's picture

Oh, now I feel ya.  Misplacing emotion--hope most of all--will torment you in your sleep this days.  It will chew up and spit out your dreams, if you place them at risk.  I ate my shorts last year on both real estate and financials and then gave it up.  Being smart and knowing how it "should" play out is worth nothing in this market, though, which basically defines the ZH perspective.    POMO or don't play. 

That said, however, I've been feeling the itch again the past few days.

Nonetheless, there is a much bigger picture here.  Money ain't everything and it sure isn't what we'll be remembered for. 

Sell, don't sell.  But don't sell out your hope

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 21:36 | 684955 erik
erik's picture

Therein lies the issue.  Hope is not gone, but I struggle mightily with the "what should happen" vs "what will happen".  I commend you for throwing in the towel when you did.  I can't quite bring myself to accept that fate.  Somehow I always think the market will eventually win and the big banks will be brought down.  It does appear to be too much expecting justice and honesty to win out.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:41 | 684477 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

Tube-free toilet paper means roll-size can be changed at will.  Hidden inflation scheme lauded as a "green" solution.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/environment/2010-10-27-1Atube27...

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 23:04 | 685085 Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

Words to the wise...

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 16:45 | 684488 azengrcat
azengrcat's picture

Cramer: Microsoft bad, Gold good, Apple best!

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:08 | 684547 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

        The Sexy Stupidity of CNBC

Ok….I will admit it up-front: I do watch CNBC. Why I watch CNBC, I am not sure. Its surely isn’t for the cutting-edge economic analysis, nor the dynamic program content or the even temper of the pundits. I guess the sad, awful truth is it has more to do with tits and asses than anything else. Of course, the loss of Liz Claman to Fox Business certainly did not help in that respect, but there are still ample reasons to keep the channel firmly locked on CNBC, with the volume necessarily muted.
If there is one person (other than Jim Cramer and Larry Kudlow) whose opinion I value less than all others, it is Michelle Caruso Cabrera. Politically she is an absolute fucking idiot. She is so biased to the political right, and so sure of the supreme wisdom of unfettered capitalism, that she reminds me of one of those Picasso paintings of a man with one eye on one side of his head….blind to all except the narrow angle of vision of that one eye. But, as long as the volume is muted, then it is kind of perversely enjoyable to watch her flash her fake tits through those tight sweaters. The only problem with this scenario is that even with her scorching voice muted…you can watch her face and sink into a grinding rage because you know exactly what she is saying: When she sticks her tits into Robert Reich’s liberal face and those lipstick-slashed lips start hammering away like a top fuel hemi….you just know she is calling him a fuckwit for ever doubting the conservative, capitalistic wisdom of Enron and Glenn Beck. Or, conversely, she is admonishing him for believing that Social Security is kind of a nice thing for old, poor people to have.
And, there is B-cup Burnett. Ok, she kinda fall’s short in the pulchritude department, and her nose is more Cyrano De Berjerac’s than Mona Lisa’s, but she does at least try to maintain a more muted capitalist rabidity than does MCC (Michael Pinto notwithstanding). She has a decent ass, of sorts, is not knock-kneed like MCC, and as long as you look at her face in frontal view instead of profile, as a Money Honey she stacks up reasonably high on the erecto-meter.
The newest bank skank to debut on CNBC is the undoubtedly sexy Amanda Drury. This Aussie import is a welcomed addition to the existing lineup of credit cunts. I really have no idea what her ideology is, nor do I care….but she does have a fine arts degree, so probably finds Larry Kudlow to be a barely tolerable ass….even when he is coked up. Despite all her charms, there is one problem with her…..her teeth look vaguely crocodilian, but is made up for because unlike MCC, who acts like a carnivore, she just looks like one.
I guess at some point I have to mention some of the male lineup here: Jim Cramer, well…he doesn’t have tits, and although he is an ass, he doesn’t seem to have much of one. If one had to pick somebody in the world NOT to take investment advice from, JC would top the list. This guy changes his opinion like Maria Bartiromo changes her hair styles. He is all over the map. One day, King Kong Amyl Nitrates is a BUY BUY BUY…..and the very next day the KKAN CEO is up one the Wall of Shame and their future outlook wallowing in the House of Pain. He is also a shameless bastard in that he uses ever opportunity to tout himself……not being able to form a paragraph without it being wrapped around his “Charitable Trust” or the fact that he was once a Hedge Fund manager – albeit a crooked one. Well, anybody these days who is proud of being a Hedge Fund manager is either a damn fool, or is totally insane….both being highly descriptive of our boy Cramer.
No treatise on televised finance would be complete without mention of the poster boy of coke-head economists: Larry Kudlow. Larry is of course a confirmed free marketeer, and a rabid Republican….and proud of both. Never mind that Larry is almost always wrong – that is to be expected from any economic prognosticator who is stupid enough to broadcast his opinions on national TV, what bothers me about him is the tone of his show: argumentative, confrontational and full of sage, dumb-fuck advise. Another thing unfortunate about Larry is when he gets his motor boat going on some Keynesian crap he works himself up into such a lather he starts sounding like an 80 year old woman who has just discovered speed. But, I love Larry. He failed upward so successfully that it should give everyone hope that if he can do it, so can the most despicable loser in Christendom.
Dennis Kneale. I only mention this wonky bed-wetter because CNBC finally smartened up enough to fire his miserable ass.
Most of the other male pundits on CNBC are duller than stale dishwater. Mark Haines has a reasonable sense of humor, and does manage to carry on some reasonably interesting banter with B-cup Burnett, even if it is about tomatoes. The only thing I can pass on about David Faber is that the CNBC producers need to provide him with either elevator heels or a lift stool. Simon Hobbs seems to be some sort of off-handed Euro-trash addition, mainly for his accent, since there seems to be no other apparent reason for hiring him.
I don’t wake up early enough anymore to listen to Joe Kernan, which subconsciously is probably why I sleep late anyway. Bob Pisani is pretty vanilla in a tiresome kind of way. No matter what is happening in the market, Pisani always seems to have a seemingly well thought out answer….if shares in Tampex is down and stock in Gorilla Dildos is up, Bob can be counted on to lay out some complex divergence scenario at play in the underlying linked fundamentals. It’s all bullshit of course, but it sounds good to the idiot producers and probably sends what few fools who are still trading in the market running to their computers to calculate the PE ratios of both companies. Rick Santelli….the Great Santelli, the father of the Tea Party Crowd. The Rickster is probably my favorite hairy-legged type on financial TV. He always seems to be surrounded by drama – standing in the pit in Chicago with a bunch of bond-trading thugs. And, he always manages to piss Steve Liesman off….and anyone who can send Liesman chasing around after his own tail in impotent rage, is my kind of guy. An odd thing about Rick, although he may be the most financial savvy pundit on CNBC, he seems in a curious way to have backed away from the whole Tea Party thing. Maybe it is just me, but he seems oddly embarrassed about the whole thing…..and I can almost sense his palpable derision at some of the crap his CNBC colleagues come up with.
Ok, enough of that shit…back to the LIBOR whores. Sue Herrera is the lynchpin of CNBC in that she has been there the longest. For obvious reasons, Sue will never flash her tits or wiggle her ass for the benefit of the viewers. For one, she probably considers it beneath her, and second….well, she is fatter than a market hog. She is not bad looking in the face for an oldster, and probably is passable in a closing time/beer goggle sense. As far as I am concerned, she is more of a volume ON type.
Bertha Coombs seems pretty bright, and she is kind of sexy in a mature, Cuban kind of way. She does however, seem like a pretty tough broad: somebody who would slit you throat, then kick you in the nuts as you lay dying for bleeding on her shoes. Sharon Epperson is kind of cute, and she seems vulnerable standing there in the trading pit of the New York Mercantile Exchange. We rarely get any body shots on her, so it is hard to tell how hot she really is.
I can’t really put my finger on Melissa Lee. She is Asian, which should be a plus, but she is SO Asian it seems to have a boomerang effect. Her body seems to have all the required parts, but they seem to be put together by a weird kind of genetics that has more in common with Leggos than female biology.
Trish Regan, Becky Quick and, Julia Boorstin I lump together as all certainly being fuckable…but not near as sexy or as intriguing as Diana Olick….plus, Olick knows what the fuck she is talking about. Suzie Orman is like all other personal financial advisers in that she has the same dim-witted advice, but from a sex standpoint, forget it. No matter how they shade her makeup, comb her hair or try to jam her fat ass in Barbie clothes, she is a non-starter. She couldn’t get humped on a bad night in Juarez.
Melissa Francis cannot get out of the shadow of her own loud mouth. She sounds like a bullfruit with bad adenoids, or a Larry Kudlow with balls. But, I guess she might be decent in bed, if you could shut her up. Wait a minute…did I just say that? No, that ball-busting bitch would critique you on everything from the shape of the bones in your knees to your politics. Fuck that.
And, we are finally here….the original Money Honey herself. Maria Bartiromo. Nobody seems to really know how old she, but she never seems to age beyond 40. Her classic Italian beauty has not really changed much in the last 20 years…oh yeah, her ass has ballooned out some, and her thighs probably look like mutant beer brats, but covered up and coiffured she is still one of the hottest. Of course, she certainly takes advantage of the people she covers, well, mainly their private airplanes, and if you stripped the words “new money” and “environment” from her vocabulary she would barely be eloquent enough to call the hogs. But, she remains an institution in herself – and one ultimately not to be fucked with: If you want to get into that, ask Dylan Ratigan.
I do not have one slim dime invested in the stock market. I do not own a single bond or covet any commodity. Yet, I watch CNBC. And, Ok….I shamefully admit that I do not always keep the volume down…only when Kudlow or MCC comes on. It is, after all, difficult to track which set of tits might be front-and-center without the voice cues. If CNBC would fire Kudlow and Francis (who refuses to dress sexy), and maybe keep Melissa Lee - who knows, I might get horny for Cubism at some point, and yes, unfortunately…keep MCC….but gag her and dress her up in a halter top, and only air above-waist shots….And oh yeah, Hire Liz Claman back from Fox, she is wasted over there, they dress her up like a fucking school-marm. And just for my sake, do some reversion back to the old days…..cleavage, tight sweaters, and that pouty-lip look like she is fixing to suck the wide-angle lens off the snout of an IMAX camera. That just might make the nut.
Yes, CNBC is stupid, biased and the center of their universe revolves around a subject most people find boring and frankly criminal. But, it is no worse than most sitcoms and reality shows. And even the totally beastly Michelle Caruso Cabrera, with her cock-sure bias and black, Republican heart, has tits that most prime-time actresses would pay for, like well…she did.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:13 | 684555 Bob
Bob's picture

Imagine if you were spending your time analysing more worthy targets.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:16 | 684565 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

What is her name.....?

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 01:01 | 685178 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Like say...women. MCC is some straight up crying game material.

http://bit.ly/cGSuZ3

<shudder>

 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:16 | 684566 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

How long have you been holding all of that in?

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:23 | 684583 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

Just penned it up a few nights ago in a spurt of drunken creativity.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 18:47 | 684737 rocker
rocker's picture

At least you really found some good trash to discuss. Yup.

I'll help you with Kermit.  Can you say Toilet Boy. Game On.  

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:20 | 684576 AbandonShip
AbandonShip's picture

I'm pretty sure someone at CNBS visits this site so I'm wondering how many junks your post will receive.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:57 | 684648 Mac1492
Mac1492's picture

What about world wide exchange? Nicole lapin is the hottest chick on cnbc after she whores her self out at 4am for the next few months they probably slide her into b cups burnetts 9am spot with mark Haines.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:08 | 684760 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

Guess I will have to check her out.....I first started watching CNBC back in Asia, in the early 90's, they have some pretty hot little numbers over there as well.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 02:48 | 685245 Mac1492
Mac1492's picture

By the way great post man that was the funniest shit I have read in awhile i dont know about everybody else but for me Becky quick is the worst I'm not a violent person by nature but just looking at her drives me insane with her stupid face and that dumbass look she gives when she's about to end a segment or go to commercial break and the camera hangs on her a bit long and she tries to smile or grin but her face is so fake she can't express any emotion...

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 18:01 | 684661 citationneeded
citationneeded's picture

Epic.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 18:09 | 684679 Rantor
Rantor's picture

Someone needs to send this to Santelli, he'd laugh his ass off.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:38 | 684795 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

Santelli really does not have a laugh - like a normal human being...he has kind of a smirk that transcends humor, more like the Vegas enforcer who is fixing to smash your knuckles with a ball-peen hammer for cheating on the Blackjack tables. With Santelli...humor is more of a reptilian thing - a flick of a poison tongue. It is hard to imagine Rick having a good belly-laugh at anything short of paraplegic wanting to vote Democratic, but can't reach the lever on the voting machine. But, I love Rick, he is one of the few bastards on CNBC who might have any intellectual integrity.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 01:02 | 685171 Red Neck Repugnicant
Red Neck Repugnicant's picture

Aristarchan, you are fucking hilarious.

You should have chosen the name Momus, rather than Aristarchan.

Absolutely epic post.  

By the way, (from what I hear) Kudlow is off the coke and simply pops an Adderall before walking on set. That's why he's excessively chatty and sweats like a farm animal.  

 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 22:11 | 687422 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

Thanks for the Kudus, my friend. Yeah, I guess Larry has kicked the habit, but it is too tempting for me not to use his old nose-jones in writing about him. The older he gets, the more high-pitched his voice gets, kinda like Jack Welsh and Ken Langone. But, I suspect you may be right about the Adderal....I don't think I could go on-air with Melissa Francis without loading up on some kind of mind-bending substance...maybe "Blackout-in-a-Can" or a massive dose of No-Doze and half-a-gallon of creamed pig fat....and maybe keep a cylinder of nitrous oxide under the desk just in case.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 18:12 | 684686 woolly mammoth
woolly mammoth's picture

Darn. I'm feeling left out of the loop. When I wanted to upgrade to high speed Internet my wife made me choose between high speed or cable. Maybe I should have choose the 3rd option. 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 20:41 | 684875 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

fuckin' hell dudes, do you even ponder why MSM uses "sexy womens" to snag your lowbrow attentions?  or why "your" nationstate is toast?

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 15:04 | 686528 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

Well Gee......until now I really haven't.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:12 | 684553 playitcool
playitcool's picture

When can I haz zero-point energy?

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:14 | 684561 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Is Tyler out getting some sugar? Work it TD! Work it!!!

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:18 | 684574 redpill
redpill's picture

He said several hours, not several minutes

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:22 | 684581 Bob
Bob's picture

So much for your love life.  :)

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:24 | 684587 redpill
redpill's picture

I'm married, that ship sailed a long time ago!

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:28 | 684788 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

Like bull riding - 8 seconds....lol

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:23 | 684582 Rotwang
Rotwang's picture

I find that a pouch made from three layers of aluminum foil inside a zip-lock bag does pretty well to cut down on the tracking disturbances, should you be so inclined.

:)

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:37 | 684608 Green Leader
Green Leader's picture

While you discuss the markets, the US Military is busy in the Tropical Atlantic creating an artificial cyclone north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Look at the straight front lines and the dry air being pushed NE of Puerto Rico, a combination of nano-particulate silicon dioxide chemtrailed and directed with brand new microwave towers. The fiscal year brought them a few nice presents!

What days are we living in!

Meanwhile, the Russians are watching and saying to themselves, "We were doing that 40 years ago!"

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 18:48 | 684739 belogical
belogical's picture

Thanks, not sure I can tell the difference. I knew they could do somethings, but i wasn't sure who sophisticated they were with it.

Again thanks

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 22:33 | 685047 Green Leader
Green Leader's picture

You can see straight cloud & front lines several hundred miles long. Straight lines do not exist in nature. The bottom part of the upper cyclone is flat. The military meteorologists are trying to make it spin a few hundred miles north of Hispaniola around an 'eye', uniting the top and bottom halves, more or less.

Where I live I can see the planes and watch the clouds being rattled by the microwaves. Also, the rain produced lacks rainbows (read first part of Genesis Chapter 9 >> the rainbow covenant).

The technology is impressive however Yahweh does NOT like others playing His role.  It's going to backfire.

Detoxing from these chemicals is a bitch.

 

 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 02:27 | 685252 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

fresh cilantro works really well to chelate the aluminium aerosol - added to a salad, salsa, or made into a pesto, adding raw garlic which has bioactive selenium,

http://www.mnwelldir.org/docs/detox/cilantro.htm

be sure to add some chlorella, tabs or liquid, to help flush the aluminium out, you don't want it floating around the body. . .

we get heavy aerosols where I live as well, up to 7 planes at a time - I've watched the churning overhead once the disperal clouds layer up. . . I reckon we've got some "interesting times" incoming.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 18:56 | 684746 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

How good is the accuracy of their steering technology? Can they aim that sucker at Wall Street?

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 22:35 | 685049 Green Leader
Green Leader's picture

They could create an earthquake @ Wall Street. Google HAARP + China earthquake.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:37 | 684612 Adam Neira
Adam Neira's picture

NEWSFLASH !

 

Could 'time traveller' caught on 1928 film mean Future Day has arrived ?  

 

This is the greatest event in human history ! Good detective work by Mr.Clarke of Ireland. The fact that the alien time travellers cover has been blown is momentous. Charlie Chaplin was obviously one of them and had trouble learning our language, thus his “silent” movies. Now they know we are onto them and they can no longer use all the billions of missing coat hangers to transmit messages from their agents masquerading as store mannequins down here on terra firma, they will obviously decide to pay us a visit. I recommend the whole population of Planet Earth turn off their TV's, fill up their cars, close their wardrobes in act of inter-stellar telecommunications sabotage, grab the kids, pack a cut lunch, thermos and rug and drive to the highest point within fifty kilometres to prepare for the visiting fleet of spaceships. This could be the end of the world as we know it or it could be a bright new age that will see us ruled by benevolent philosopher overlords with two heads. (No, they aren’t extras from a Tim Burton movie.) Interesting times ! For all those who believe me I have set up a website where you can donate all your life savings and get a complimentary "We Welcome the Aliens" T-Shirt and a Showbag. Please go to www.kindaliens.com. All credit cards accepted. Processing will be done speedily via our servers in the Cayman Islands.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:56 | 684646 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

The scenario Ben is thinking about is to block the exits and print a number so huge no one here is even prepared for.  Get ready for a 50% dollar deval once the Chinese are taken care of. The unintended consequences are how does the rest of the world react. Given the global capitalist system relies upon the american consumer , i suspect they all just suck it up largely.  The Asian economies are not ready to be the foundation of consumeriusm.  Ironically , the light maybe at the end of the tunnel for the average American. The last 20 years has been a slow bleed of living standards - lifestyles are worse now than they were 10 , 20 , 30 , 40 years ago. The pendulum will swing , just stay on target.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 00:39 | 685159 Green Leader
Green Leader's picture

"Get ready for a 50% dollar deval once the Chinese are taken care of."

It's coming...buckle up!

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 17:58 | 684652 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

With your forebearance,

I would like to recommend Jesus to everyone.

 

Particularly, the place where He goes,

 

"forgive us our debts, as we forgive our debtors."

 

Really, its the only way, isn't it ....

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 01:02 | 685180 snowball777
snowball777's picture

Hey evvaboddy....Bono is stumping for white folk now too!

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 18:34 | 684717 putbuyer
putbuyer's picture

After the market tanks next week with QE2 drip, the MSM is going to wonder how that 2x4 got in their ass. Steve Liesman will finally experience what it feels like to be Barney Frank.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:20 | 684776 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

You know.....Barney could be a top.....wait, no, you are right.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:28 | 684786 Bob
Bob's picture

You've taken that marriage thing way too far, man!

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:00 | 684750 MGA_1
MGA_1's picture

Webbot Nov 8th-11th - big days !  Tipping point.  End of the dollar - hope you got your gold!

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:21 | 684778 putbuyer
putbuyer's picture

Nouriel Roubini is a POS phony. A true Marxist now comes clean in his FT editorial. Your debates with Faber were always suspicious. FU asshole.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:23 | 684782 TheSettler
TheSettler's picture

If the federal government cannot (a) provide a minimum safety net; and/or (b) act in a manner consistent with Constitutional provisions to protect (not take) the Peoples' private property (ie value of MONEY), what's it doin', other than consuming resources to support its own employment & power?

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 19:27 | 684784 ATTILA THE WIMP
ATTILA THE WIMP's picture

Price of gold on Sep. 10th, 2001, the day before the horrible terrible Osama bin Subcontractor attacked us because he hates our Freedom Fries: $271.50. Current price of gold: $1,341 - up 394%.

Price of S&P 500 on Sep. 10th, 2001: 1,093. Current S&P 500: 1,184 - Up 8%

This does not take into account the dividends that one would have gotten from owning the stocks but I doubt that it would make much difference. “Current” price as of 4:30 PM October 28, 2010)

Gold up 394% stocks up 8%

Comrade peasants, we have been at war with the horrible terrible Islamo-fascists for nine years. Show me one war in all history without an increase in commodity prices or without an increase in the desire for gold, just one.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 20:14 | 684844 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

Maybe the Sumer/Elam war in 2700 BC? But, to be sure I have to check with Greenspan on that and get back to you.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 20:16 | 684847 Geoff-UK
Geoff-UK's picture

You left out an important follow-up question:

How the HELL could dollars have gone down in value 394% relative to gold--but THE FUCKING S&P STAYED EXACTLY THE SAME!??!  AT THE SAME TIME OUTFLOWS AND INSIDER SELLING IS AT BIBLICAL PROPORTIONS?

 

The Fed has been too obvious in sneaking more chips into the casino, yet the average American still watches CNBC to see where to invest their 5k a year for their IRA!  

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 20:33 | 684869 Aristarchan
Aristarchan's picture

The average American watches CNBC for the tits-an-ass...only a fucking fool would listen to anything even resembling investment advice from these people. BTW, that Louisa Bojesen is pretty hot.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 20:28 | 684848 hambone
hambone's picture

Since March '09, market has been up and up.  Only significant down periods seem to have coincided w/ Fed reducing or ending asset purchase programs. 

Given this and likely further increased asset purchases, why, prey tell, why would the market go down?  Who, yes who, is going to sell now?  If everybody knows there is a constant Fed drip of POMO's, then every dip is time to buy.  Time to sell is never until the Fed is destroyed or reined in by ???  To have a sell off you either need a rush of sellers or lack of buyers.  Sellers, who?  Buyers, PD's and their BFF the Fed.

Not right, not what I want, but reality is reality.  Please, please show me why I'm wrong and I'll be a far happier man ('cause I'm still net short fucking retard I am???  any other retards like me who know they are wrong but can't go long???)

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 20:41 | 684882 CU1981
CU1981's picture

Can't argue against you because you are right.... Just get on the right side and buy dips and your golden !!

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 20:51 | 684890 hambone
hambone's picture

Guess I can't trust in the goodness of the Fed proping everything, really, seems everything in the market.  With the slightest of pullbacks from the Fed, whole damn things comes apart. 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 23:07 | 685088 UncleFester
UncleFester's picture

I would hesitate buying dips in equities at this point.  Also, if your still shorting this market, you got balls.  Cash on the side for trades later, PM's at home for reserve.  That's the way I'm playing until the elections.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 20:40 | 684879 BanksterSlayer
BanksterSlayer's picture

Clif High of www.HalfPastHuman.com posted a special update today regarding the financial tipping point that his Web Bots program is pointing to for the week of Nov. 08. I am not a financial guru, as are my fellow ZH compatriots here on this page, so I submit this to you for your analysis. Pasted from:

http://halfpasthuman.com/madness.html

"

So here it is....the modelspace is forecasting that within mere days, several very large changes in 'stock valuations' and 'bond pricings', and other 'derivative valuations' including 'tables of cross party risk orderings' will be occurring. These, as with previous money-making-on-future-death schemes, will result in large scale swings in pricing activity. I do not have meaningful clues as to what or where will be impacted....but what i do know is that the first 'swing in pricing' will be a very noticable (if you are looking in the right place) 18 (eighteen) percent....then, and probably directly because of this essay, a further 5 (five) percent additional change will also be recorded. Now here is the cool part, there are undoubtedly greed obsessed monkey minds riding herd on some humans who will read this. They will find the 'loci' of activity of TPTB in advance of the actual November ungluing, and thinking to participate in a 'killing', they will pile on (in spite of karmic risks). This extra 'action' on the part of these greedy bottom feeders will be what brings on the additional 5/five percent. And, with luck, and assuming it is meaningful, this specific 18 and then 5 pattern will be able to be spotted and used, again assuming that it is meaningful. "

"

Now, we also need to know that just by looking we alter the future. However, this particular bit of future experimentation would seem to be reasonably 'locked in' at this late date in the larger unfolding that is universe, and the quantity of the aware observers, while unknown, and basically unmeasurable is still likely too small to cross the threshold of the emotional energy required to thwart the plans of TPTB. In other words, even if TPTB *know* we are watching, they will likely still do their money-bets-with-death things in the markets. This will occur as they discount the number of aware observers, and they are greedy beyond comprehension of most humans, and they are basically a bit stupid. "

 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 21:11 | 684929 gwar5
gwar5's picture

I saw a web bot warning 6 months ago for November 8th. At the time it only suggested and event, probable political fall out from the election-related scheduled Nov 2nd....

So, you're saying it's now saying it's a financial?  Thanks for the link, I'll check it out.

I don't set my clock to such things, but it's good to know why people are rushing the grocery stores.

 

 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 20:40 | 684881 hambone
hambone's picture

Any thoughts that the US QE(1,2,3,?) could destroy countries like Japan who can't devalue near good as us (they brought a billion to a trillion dollar fight)? 

US saving really rich folks ass via devaluing currency only junks Japan and their strong currency ilk and their collapse takes us down with them?

 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 20:52 | 684889 geopol
geopol's picture

 

Yoda Bets on Strategic Deception to Save the Empire

 

In these times I thought it would be appropriate to revisit..

Webster G. Tarpley

Tarpley.net

 

Andrew Marshall, the Pentagon’s legendary Yoda, is at it again. The resident futurologist and gray eminence of the US Department of Defense is now 89 years old and has been running Office of Net Assessment for 37 years, since he founded it in 1973. Now comes word that a gaggle of Strangeloves operating under Yoda’s sponsorship is recommending a new array of utopian psychological warfare strategies to try to shore up the sagging US-UK world empire in extremis. These schemes are contained in a report entitled Capability Surprises, which has just been issued under the auspices of the Pentagon’s Defense Science Board. The core recommendation of the assembled Strangeloves is that United States should create and conduct a robust and permanent inter-agency Office of Strategic Deception, to be assembled by a “Tiger team” of utopian think tankers, consultants, and academics, as soon as possible.

Capability surprises refer to sudden scientific, technological, or organizational breakthroughs that give one nation a sudden potential strategic advantage over another. They can represent secret weapons, or new ways of organizing existing capabilities, such as the German Blitzkrieg of World War II. Capability surprises, in the opinion of the DSB panel, can be expected for the United States in such areas as cyber warfare, space warfare, military operations, and technology, special emphasis on nuclear and biological capabilities. The report lists the Soviet launch of Sputnik in 1957 as a capability surprise inflicted by the Soviet Union on the United States. Another shocking surprise for the US came with the Tet offensive in Vietnam of January. Yet another surprise was the widespread use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) in Iraq. The panel thinks that the US attack on Iraq in the form of operation Desert Storm in 1991 represented a capability surprise based on effective deception against Saddam Hussein, whom they however dismiss as an “incompetent victim.”
The goal of the report is to minimize the shocking surprises experienced by the US, or at least to make sure that Washington can recover quickly and stabilize after each new shock. The other concern of the panel is to maximize the number of capability surprises the US can inflict on its rivals. The need to create surprises for others and the need to prepare to cope with your own are the two premises of the report.

Although this report is officially sponsored by Paul G. Kaminski, the chairman of the Defense Science Board, it represents in its essence a product of the Andrew Marshall network among think tanks, academics, and private consultants. This is a network which Yoda has been building up for more than four decades, using the Office of Net Assessment budget to commission a whole series of utopian scenarios and studies some of whose titles have been obtained by Talking Points Memo under the Freedom of Information Act, and which are listed at that website. Yoda’s influence has been nothing short of immense; Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney, Paul Wolfowitz, and Scooter Libby can all be counted to some degree among Yoda’s pupils. We can say with absolute confidence that Yoda is a key component of that shadow government or rogue network cutting across the executive departments and agencies of the United States government which is determined to assert its own concept of foreign policy, defense policy, finance policy, and the national (or imperial) interest without regard to the momentary majorities in Congress or the momentary tenant of the White House. If Yoda is not a part of the shadow government, then no one is.

Yoda’s main job has always been in the area of imagination and futurology, identifying threats to US military supremacy well in advance and devising means to stave them off. If there was one point in the United States government which should have been held responsible for foreseeing and warding off the September 11 attacks, it was surely Yoda’s futurology and imagination shop in the Pentagon. After September 11, Yoda declined all responsibility with a series of cynical and cavalier remarks. Significantly, he was not held accountable by any commission, was not dragged before congressional hearings, still holds his post, and is as full of sociopathic energy as ever.

This study is the product of the DSB summer seminar of 2008. Yoda provided the keynote address for the entire project. The immediate prod for a seminar in capability surprises would appear to have come from the successful test of an anti-satellite weapon by China in January of 2007. This event caused widespread shock and consternation in official Washington, which had expected no such thing. Another ingredient was doubtless the Washington perception of growing Chinese capability in the area of computer hacking, under the heading of what the US calls Titan Rain.

An analysis of the language of this report allows us to see in retrospect how great the influence of Yoda and his circles over Rumsfeld actually was. In the report, capability surprises are divided into two categories. The first are the “known surprises.” These are breakthroughs by an adversary which one’s own espionage or other intelligence has allowed one to anticipate. These were the events famously classified by Rumsfeld as “known unknowns.” Then, in the language of the report, come the “surprising surprises.” These are the real shocks which arrive without any warning at all — obviously the “unknown unknowns,” of Rumsfeldian parlance. The report is grimly realistic when it says that the United States will not be able to avoid some nasty surprising surprises in the foreseeable future. If China can launch a manned mission to the moon before the US gets back into that game, for example, that would be a surprising surprise of the first magnitude. The report is vaguely aware of the stagnation of basic science and advanced technology in this country, which it obliquely recognizes by showing the relative decline of US science Ph.D.s compared to the rest of the world. Therefore, the report recommends “surprise management,” which would become the responsibility of a new Capability Assessment Warning and Response Organization (CAWRO), which would contain special strategic intelligence cells.

The most interesting part of the report deals with be attempted manipulation of strategic adversaries.. It is clear at the utopian Strangeloves of the Yoda network believe that they can ameliorate the declining US strategic position by playing on the gullibility and suggestibility of their main adversaries, especially by concentrating on the weak spots of the respective national ideologies of the rivals. The United States, according to the report, must concentrate on “understanding the enemy culture, standing beliefs, and intelligence-gathering process and decision cycle, as well as the soundness of its operational and tactical doctrine.” But necessary deception strategy will be “reliant …on the close control of information, running agents (and double-agents) and creating stories that adversaries will readily believe.” After the issuing of this report, nobody in the world has any excuse for doubting that the US does indeed run numerous double agents.

The deception strategy demanded by the report will require the psychological and epistemological manipulation of adversaries at the same time that the US attempts to manipulate and orchestrate world events themselves, as the following revealing formulation makes clear:

“Creating strategic surprise is especially challenging. Indeed, creating operational and strategic surprise requires one to undertake a series of sophisticated orchestrated events, all of which the adversary must believe, while protecting one’s own assets (e.g., double agents). In order to undertake such an endeavor, one must have a sophisticated understanding of the adversary’s intelligence gathering processes and political/decision cycle — as well as of the soundness of its operational and tactical doctrine. Even with this information, plans that rely on deception or bluffing often fail.” (p. 76)

We need to ponder the creation of such a “series of sophisticated orchestrated events” when we look at current aggressive US operations in Pakistan, the Gulf, Yemen, Iraq, and Somalia. This phrase could include just about anything, from fake provocations in the 1964 Gulf of Tonkin mode to a vast array of false flag terror operations. We need to remember this report when considering the next round of Obama administration contentions about world events – it could very well all be merely a strategic deception script.

This report takes its place in a shameful tradition. The 2002 summer seminar in this same DSB series brought us the infamous P2OG, the Proactive Preventive Operations Group. The P2OG was tasked with manipulating terror groups to make them attack targets the US wanted at times chosen by the US — thus coming very close to the full definition of state-sponsored terrorism, since it is by manipulation that terrorist networks are normally controlled in any case. The P2OG was also directed to carry on deception operations. The 2008 summer seminar stressed that deception operations had to begin at once: “Deception cannot succeed in wartime without developing theory and doctrine in peacetime…. In order to mitigate or impart surprise, the United States should [begin] deception planning and action prior to the need for military operations.”

Naturally, when it comes to the specific deception operations which the Yoda networks may have in mind, we find no clues, since these have to be kept strictly secret if they are to have any hope of succeeding. Nevertheless, we can acquire some insights into the current goals of the Office of Net Assessment and its associated coterie if we examine the list of studies which this office has commissioned over recent years. Thanks to the FOIA request by TPM, we can now do this. One of the most interesting among these ONA studies is doubtless the 2007 report from the Hudson Institute entitled “The Great Siberian War of 2030.” 1 This is obviously a scenario for World War III fought between China and Russia, an outcome which represents the fondest yearning of some of the most utopian strata of the Anglo-American intelligence community.

The full text of “The Great Siberian War of 2030″ does not seem to be available to the public. However, Media Matters Action Network has posted online a package of documents including tax returns and other papers regarding the Hudson Institute, a reactionary neocon think tank to which Yoda and his colleagues regularly turn for new scenarios and ideas. Here we find the following summary of the paper in question:

“The Great Siberian War of 2030. Russia is hollowing out and China filling up. The growing inability of Russia to man and invest in Siberia creates a vacuum that China has been filling with people, business activity and a political and intelligence infrastructure. By 2030, China feels strong enough to make its possession of the territories east of the Urals official. The tilt in world geopolitics is so huge that it provokes the coalition of diverse countries intent on preventing China from acquiring such a position: Japan, Korea, India, Iran, Turkey, the EU and the USA. The Great Siberian War of 2030 provokes a complete realignment in world affairs. This scenario will explore causes and consequences.” 2

This is World War III with a vengeance.

The author of “The Great Siberian War of 2030″ is the late Laurent Murawiec, who worked for the RAND Corporation before going to work for the Hudson Institute. In the summer of 2002, Murawiec presented a PowerPoint slide show to the Defense Policy Board in the Pentagon recommending that the US treat Saudi Arabia as a deadly enemy. Saudi Arabia demanded explanations from the US ambassador, and Murawiec soon departed from RAND. The importance of this Siberian war scenario projected 20 years into the future is to show us the real intentions of Yoda and his friends, who seem to be impervious to elections and to international law. The essence of US foreign policy under the Obama administration is a desperate bid to maintain US-UK world strategic domination in the face of challenges which Yoda and company perceive as coming from China and Russia, backed up by other countries who are tired of the Anglo-American yoke. The strategy of trying to play Russia against China recalls the appeasement line of Sir Neville Chamberlain of Britain during the 1930s, which meant in practice to build up Hitler and play him against Stalin in an attempt to destroy both Germany and the USSR. That did not work as planned, and Britain was almost destroyed in the process.

Most US foreign policy is already based on a deception, to the extent they are predicated on an alleged “global war on terrorism.” This is the pretext cited for operations in Afghanistan-Pakistan, Yemen, Somalia, Iran, and many other places. But the targetting of these countries is dictated in reality not by terrorism but rather by the fact that they are friendly to China, which looms in the nightmares of the Anglo-American elite as the power threatening to supersede their empire. The problem is that an overtly anti-Chinese confrontation line would be very hard to motivate in the eyes of US and world public opinion.

In this regard, it is probably already too late to begin deception operations, no matter how sophisticated, since the basic outlines of the US anti-Russian and anti-Chinese policies are already widely known to the elites of those countries. The United States would be well advised to turn away from Yoda’s harebrained utopian scheming, and stop trying to maintain the current world system using methods like military confrontation, proxy wars, buck-passing, false flag provocations, economic sanctions, and economic warfare in general.

 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 01:05 | 685185 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

Awesome stuff geopol.  

Keep posting the Tarpley.  So much to learn.

Cheers,

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 21:19 | 684935 g3h
g3h's picture

Can this be confirmed?

"Retail Investors Finally Putting Money Back Into US Stocks?" http://www.cnbc.com/id/39891367

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 21:21 | 684941 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

It turns out wishing and hoping ain't ever going to do a damn thing.  We could spend the world dreaming and wondering what curiousity can achieve.  Children figuring success without knowing hard times.  Men and women loving in a partnership of generation.  What ever we were meant to be can be achieved, but only after the wish, the thought.  The thought must be put into play, and only then can we change the game.

R. Kelly - I Wish:

http://www.metacafe.com/watch/sy-13406448/r_kelly_i_wish_official_music_...

It won't matter if the Fed policy is wrong.  It is not about being right or wrong.  It is about getting something done.  And Bernanke wants to transfer an old regime into a new one.  The fix has obviously been in for some time.  This phase is almost complete...until it isn't.  And this is what it is:  The financial system does not exist.  It is an illusion.  Usury is an absence.  Usury is an effigy.  An effigy to a want, a wish.  And I will add my wishes along with those of any good willed person to compare them to people who control industry.  The real holy wish will shine the night.  Greedy wants and desires will always be cast back to the dark.  Always.

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 21:28 | 684946 Yes We Can. But...
Yes We Can. But Lets Not.'s picture

Open thread, eh?  Got a half hour to kill?  Check this blog post out, and watch the videos:

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2010/10/027556.php

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 21:32 | 684948 erik
erik's picture

nm

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 22:04 | 685002 BeSosaNotTony
BeSosaNotTony's picture

I want to use this opportunity to share with you something that has been circulating in the foreign policy community for the last decade but remains little-known outside of that particular clusterfuck. In 2000, a treatise by two PLA officers, Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, was published and translated into English, entitled "Unrestricted Warfare." The essential point of the treatise (approx 120 pgs) was that the combined acceleration of technological capacity in terms of actual warfare and other means of social disruption had by that time created conditions whereby all future conflict, regardless of whether or not it was declared 'war', could be seen under the guise of "total warfare." It is little surprise, then, that currency manipulation, trade jack-off contests, StuxNet and its ilk, and mass media shenanigans are all seen as being fair game for nations to exploit--and furthermore, that it has become easier and cheaper than ever to do so. In this way, I view this as a prescient (if in need of updating) view of the utter bullshit that is being perpetrated on a daily basis by the dour baseheads at the Politburo, the comically muppet-like Duma, Chairman Shalom and the Helicopter Gang, and Jean-Claude Trichet (he needs no embellishment). Although Qiao and Wang could not have foreseen that we would become so craven as to unleash HFTs upon this environment, there is little doubt in my eyes that HFT is (as ZH has correctly observed) truly a weapon of mass destruction--and not merely in the financial sense. It is Machiavellian in both the best and worst of the tradition (and it is worth noting that Qiao and Wang spend nearly forty pages referring to Niccolo--the splooge expelled in the writing of this section is sickly palpable). While the way events have transpired in the last decade has largely made such an expansion of the scope of conflict both convenient and inevitable for leaders of nations and vampire squid legions, it is nevertheless galling to observe in the context of "Unrestricted Warfare" how not a single person in a position of real power has managed to act as both lion and fox in such a demanding and chaotic time--we've instead had a situation where the foxes have multiplied to Zerg Rush-like numbers, overrunning and overwhelming all and any resources to be had, without mind or pity or any individual initiative of which to speak; and the few lions that have come around have either been beta as fuck (my boy Barry) or clinically retarded (take your pick). Ultimately, if we view everything and anything as warfare--most especially in the economic arena (and I don't only speak of currencies, though that obviously a major weapon)--then it is clear that the big war everyone's been sort of secretly waiting for has been going on right in front of our faces and will continue until every last asset can be claimed. 

 

Here's the link if you're interested: http://www.c4i.org/unrestricted.pdf

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 16:37 | 685009 BeSosaNotTony
BeSosaNotTony's picture

Sorry for the double post. 503'd to oblivion at the end of my pseudo-rant. 

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 22:35 | 685050 sunny
sunny's picture

Where is the rage?  Benny is actively promoting increasing inflation and no one gives a shit.  The sheeple are too dumb to realize that inflation is a tax levied by the government and financial institutions to remove money from those who actually work for it and use that money for bankster bonuses and wars.  Probably the single greatest failing of the US of A is the failure to educate people into the ways that government works.  And fails to work.  If people understood the utter BS that the Fed is up to, we'd have millions in the streets demanding Benny's head rather than at NASCAR events.  Where's the rage!?!

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 22:40 | 685056 ugmug
ugmug's picture

 

Since the Christian right is the new Rodney Dangerfield of the liberal media nowadays they should first consider that eventually Islam will be their new and last master. Consider this….

Is The Mark Of The Beast Islam?

In Revelation 14: 9-10 the mark of the beast is placed on the forehead or on the hand and this could only mean that we are dealing with the Islamic religion. Consider that when a Muslim woman wears a burqa, or hijab, according to the Islamic religion, her forehead is covered and only her hands are exposed making the beast’s mark on a woman’s hand the only possible way for verification.

---

Revelation 14:9-10 (New International Version)

 9 A third angel followed them and said in a loud voice: "If anyone worships the beast and his image and receives his mark on the forehead or on the hand, 10 he, too, will drink of the wine of God's fury, which has been poured full strength into the cup of his wrath. He will be tormented with burning sulfur in the presence of the holy angels and of the Lamb.

---

The Christian right (for which I include myself) believe that our current economic collapse is divine providence to bring about man’s redemption from his own self-destructive nature.

 

  

Thu, 10/28/2010 - 23:58 | 685119 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

Asian markets are getting clobbered? 

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 01:02 | 685179 Iranian Dictator
Iranian Dictator's picture

Free money. If ES-AUD/JPY stays true, then ES has about 5 points of downside.

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 08:39 | 685409 sudzee
sudzee's picture

The world just loves bankers:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39903059

Fri, 10/29/2010 - 09:36 | 685535 sudzee
sudzee's picture

Talk about backroom deals. US fucks China for 27 trillion. No wonder China wants gold and silver:

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1288358131.php

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!