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Open Thread: The Real State Of The Economy
Over the past two years, one of the most salient topics of discussion has been America's collapse into a Chinese state of economic disclosure - limited, opaque, and, at worst, fraudulent. Due to Zero Hedge's extremely "eclectic" selection of readers who are professionals in a variety of industries, we would like to take the opportunity to hear from all of you on what the true state of the US economy is where you are - be it (un)employment, inventories, overall business conditions, moods, general supply and demand, etc. Consider it an objective, crowd-sourced, non-manipulated business perspective.
This will likely be the last open thread for a while.
The soapbox is yours.
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While there may be some movement in residential RE, I suspect it is largely due to the fire sale pricing that can often be found. Furthermore, I suspect that much of that buying is being done by long term speculators with available cash on hand and not by homeowners stepping in to melt the ice of a frozen industry.
The jobs market is still a disaster and will remain high for the foreseeable future. I know that there are some, if not many, economists that are predicting 10% unemployment to be the new normal going forward.
In South Florida, where I live, there is no evidence of the RE market getting any better and some evidence it is in fact getting worse and preparing for another leg down. The state unemployment levels here just hit 11.9%, which is an all time high and it's expected to reach 12.5% by the end of 2010.
Bank lending right now is virtually non existent. And that's with a zero percent Fed rate. What's going to come of this when the Fed, eventually, ups it's rate? History does not suggest this will make lending any better...on the contrary.
While the monkeys on CNBC keep spouting off about economic improvements and these mysterious green shoots sprouting up all over the place that apparently only they and others with access to the magical rose colored glasses can see ...from the perspective on the street, the only green I see looks like gangrene to me.
im in RE related area of business in Seattle. It has picked back up in the last six months, but not to any 'normal' level yet. Deal with land speculators as well and they are not long term buyers. They want a 20-25% return per year on equity. They are looking/planning on a 1-2 year holding period. However, I do think there are many here (seattle) who have the feeling that "its different here" - im not one of those.
I think their hope for a 20-25% per year return will manifest itself in the form of spectacular disappointment.
Chart of the Century
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2010/03/most-important-chart-of-century...
Well if that doesn't get the blood pumping! Damned if we do, damned if we don't.
I suggest listening to Nathan's interview of Celente last week also....
And join The Swarm!
Agreed. The next shoe is about to drop, but it might not drop until autumn. Spring and summer are the bounce seasons for real estate. Foreclosures are counted as "sales" because the deed changes names.
Um, can someone confirm this. I know fucking with #s is part of every government worker's duty, but what you claim here is just insane enough to possibly be true...
I agree. Their assumption that the worst is over is premature in my opinion.
Blind optimism.
I can look out of my office building into a supposedly "recession proof" luxury condo high rise that has been empty except for limited construction lighting on every floor - empty all the way through - you can see the buildings on the other side - it's been quiet for at least the last six months - just a tall empty shell. Thats in South Lake Union, where they have five or six cranes working on as many new complexes, blocking the damn view. From what I read it's only gov bailouts that keep the cranes moving. Imagine if they stopped without finishing - in full view of commuting traffic!
The new complex up at Northgate mall with the fake IMAX is a lot of young renters and its only half full.
Ahhh, you must be talking about Thornton Place. Yeah, through 2007 a lot of stuff got built that needed maximum bubble froth to make it pencil. Now you got a lot of cookie cutter condo and apt buildings that cant make money on what was spent to get there. Look at Michael Mastro (developer) as an example.
LOL I'm one of those expecting outsized returns in the Seattle area on RE investment. You would be crazy not to demand massive returns on such a high risk ventures. Just the lack of liquidity alone makes me expect double or triple the returns vs stock.
By the way any bets on who's going to get Frontier, City bank or Sterling? They have a huge pile of empty lots on their books they are not making available except to "special" friends. I asked for an REO list from Frontier about a year ago and they printed a page with 3 properties. During that time I know a number of people who made very lucrative deals with them on properties that were supposedly not available. Only the crooks make money any more.
Spoke to a realtor in upstate NY that things were now busy (after sucking hard) due to banks releasing repo houses onto the market.
Central Coast, CA
Big lots and newly remodeled homes getting bid up over asking price again. Prices are rising although we're still 25% off the peak. If your house is on a small lot or your interior decorator is your grandma from the late 70's your house will sit unless your willing to take a substantial haircut. CRE still seeing highest vacancies since forever supposedly, returning tourists and long time residents are "shocked" at how much downtown has changed. Projects uncompleted from initial fallout remain that way. People with F.U. money keeping on with 3rd remodels, infinity pool additions, 7th and 8th bathrooms and 4500 square foot pool houses. Apple store packed. Every day. Go figure. City workers on mandatory vacation and furlough 2 times a month. My business took a hit briefly in the beginning, but people are still a little weary to open the wallet. Tons of new homeless, 2 per on/off ramp working both sides of traffic now. College students haven't skipped a beat although I've never seen so many postings on Craigslist.
I love you "goofy bastards."
A neighbor's house in Silver Spring (DC suburb) had three offers the day after it went on the market last week. A house across the street sold after about two weeks. A year ago there were rent to won signs and a few foreclosure sale advertisments - unheard of in Washington!!! About four months ago in the Metro system I saw a sign for a foreclosure seminar. You know - pay $500 for a Saturday afternoon at the Bethesda Marriott and you will learn how to make $50K per week flipping DC foreclosures sales. Meet Joe Theisman!!! Four years ago Joe was offering flip-it seminars at the peak. Maybe this is a sign of the bottom. I have a friend with a gorgeous house on Rock Creek Park who had it on the market for nine months starting November '08 - not one offer after starting at $1.5 MM and dropping to $1.25MM. I have seen ugly spec houses stay on the market, go off, and recently come back on. I think that the usual spring buying season is happening in DC. I wouldn't conclude much from it. DC is an anomoly. Nancy Pelosi's house will be on the market tomorrow (Monday) if health care fails today, and in November if it passes.
Am going down o the American Enterprise Institute tomorrow afternoon to hear Timmothy Geithner from 4:30-5:30 speak in a 17 seat confertence room. You might see me on the 10:00 news in a perp walk for throwing rotten tomatoes or some such.
Salem oregon , like many cities has the government component and offshoots, city workers, state workers etc. Thats the only reason its doing good. But now so many teachers, principals etc are getting laid off.
Its a crumbling , slow decay.
Interesting. Here in Strasbourg (France) property is also moving. Like DC I wonder if this is because of the large amount of Federal/EU commission workers. They get beneficial treatment as regards mortgages in France and a reasonably stable wage.
Elsewhere in France its a little bit up and down...people have become so desperate in Paris they have begun living in cellars (Suplex) so I guess one has to think we might be in the latter stages of that market?
In the west of France, in fact anywhere where there may have been UK buyers, has seen prices drop.
Artful.
Big surprise. Government has been totally unaffected by this depression. In fact government has only gotten bigger and they now make more than twice as much as the private sector.
My small manufacturing business in Oregon has doubled sales (not employees) over the past 6 months. We serve the semiconductor and high tech automation companies. There has definitely been a large upswing in this industry but I believe that it has peaked and will fall off in the latter half of the year. I suspect that the huge boom/bubble in China and other emerging markets has created massive demand for semiconductors and electronics.
The D.C. realestate market is an abberation as the outgoing Bush regieme was caught in the price implosion and lost 1/3 of their equity and refuse to sell while the incomming Obama regieme went on a building spree.
If you have a friend that is an automobile franchisee go to his office and look at the state by state breakdown using his proprietary NADA program. You will see that America's auto dealers that are leveraged ar about to fall like dominoes.
Stock up on the essentials and make peace with your God.
The DC area is as close to recession proof as you can get in this country, due to govt employees, contractors, etc. Their housing market has taken a hit though. I've been looking at houses in the outer suburbs for several years, looking to find something affordable, and last year for the first time in years, some smaller ranches have moved under 300k. I've even seen some now under 200k. But prices closer in are still high, and will likely not go down further, IMHO.....I lived there for years in the past and had a condo that I sold at almost the height of the market for 200% profit.....had I waited another 6 months, I could have been 300%, but it fell after that.
Even if realestate was moving backed by solid fundamentals, the end result would not differ.
In fact, I would argue that solid realestate fundamentals would only throw gas on the fire... (gas we don't have, wink wink).
Credit money that purchases realestate becomes instant dead money. If credit was being used to build new infrastructure, credit money would flow back into the real economy in builders income, sale of concrete, timber etc. etc.
But the real problem always was and still remains the ability to purchase land with credit. Land is natural capital that required no energy input to produce and thus, the only way to purchase land without becoming an instant wealth transfer from the real economy (savers) to the banks is to put this to a permanent end. But its too late of course, maybe next time ay?
Savings that are used to purchase land are not a drain on economic growth because throwing this money at natural capital does not devalue the remaining money in the system. Also, I does not drive realestate prices beyond an economies affordability. Good ol supply and demand takes care of that.
But its all over, nuff said :-(
Many folks are beginning to discover what survival is all about. I suspect that the US GDP numbers will move from resembling China's to Greece's as efforts are undertaken to quantify and apply the contributions from the "on the left" economy. I just wonder if the US will turn a trick in turning the US from a 12% to a 3% nation overnight as the lady that normally stands atop our courthouses is trafficked and pimped for a fix?
On a side note it would appear as if many of the all cash RRE deals were recycled into property management firms that are unable to garner sufficient rents to offset their mortgage, taxes and maintenance. I suspect that starting with the western coastal states late summer we may well see the start of significant concerns with the early all cash deals at foreclosure & short sales making their way back to market.
A recent move allowed me to meet a local Comcast installer, who related his situation. A father of one, he has worked in the same field for several decades. Four years ago he would earn about $1000 for four days work. Now he earns $400 for the same work period and feels lucky to have a job.
His wife has "steady" employment, but has been laid off for short periods recently.
I kept my mouth shut as piling Shadowstats inflation on that (or just the price of gold), would have been just too much.
anecdotal and non-statistical, but I hope this has value.
Tyler:
While I've known for several years that the Power Elite are the ones who truly control this country (rather than any political party), I didn't realize the long term motives behind their treasonous actions until recently.
To glean a better understanding of "the Big Grand Scheme" currently being orchestrated by the Power Elite, your readers may wish to peruse a very interesting commentary that appeared a few days ago in the Daily Bell.
The web link is here:
http://www.thedailybell.com/899/Party-Time-for-Anglo-American-Elites.html
I hear ya. I also subscribe to the shadow elite government theory. It almost feels like some sort of "Trading Places" style experiment or bet to convert the communists into capitalists and vice-versa. A decade ago, i would never have believed it. Now is another story.
Gravity is also just a "theory", you know.
I am Chumbawamba.
Krugman?
The force of gravity is a fact, the explanation of gravity is a theory. Evolution (species change over time) is a fact, natural selection is a theory.
This is a very important distinction.
Ok, then the Shadow Government is a fact, and the explanation of its existence is in numerous so-called conspiracy theories.
I am Chumbawamba.
Micro evolution is fact, macro evolution theory.
Wait... Gravity was downgraded from a universal law before US was downgraded from AAA?
Now I've seen everything.
Gravity also got a new definition. "The earth sucks"
"Evolution (species change over time) is a fact, natural selection is a theory."
i have never seen any absolute proof of that, except with mans assistance.
During the course of this argument, the herring species turned red.
Once one understands the truth, the great philosophical question then becomes one of whether to fight or join. Are the American people worthy of freedom & liberty, or do they deserve to be robbed of their very birthright and sold into slavery?
What favorable traits, behaviors and general worthiness recommends Americans? What warrants such an exercise in futility as that of attempting to restore basic rights? Did not Americans long ago collectively sell them all for the proverbial bowl of porridge? Why not, as was so presciently noted, join the dark side?
Remember the line from Patton "Rommel you bastard, I read your book!"? Once you understand what is occurring, every thing begins to make perfect sense. Therefore, why not copy & mimic in the shadows? Like the sharks' remora, why would the power elite care if you were eating leftover crumbs by following their same exact set of strategies, as long as you got nowhere near to threatening them in any manner?
Why bother fighting TARP and the various bailout bills? Why waste one's time opposing health care? Once the parlimentary tricks are perfected for H/C "reform", both amnesty and cap n' trade can be rammed through regardless of political opposition. Sure it's going to destroy the middle-class and bring on, shall we say, widespread poverty & social chaos, but isn't that their point?
What one really needs to think through is by what means will assets be captured & profits harvested by the power elite when the SHTF? How hard is it to be a well paid agent who willingly drops Zyklon B on fellow citizens if, in the final analysis, it's what they deserve? After all, they're just fucking sheep, right?
Good questions.
But how do you personally answer them?
In the first chapter of Plato's Republic, the key question comes up; why be just or good if there is nothing in return, worse yet why be good if there are negative consequences to it?
Care to reply?
@ B9K9:
Excellent points, all!
Thanks for the lead to this website obewon. I read two articles and bookmarked "The Bell"...fascinating stuff and perspective.
Everyone I know is hurt'in. Many are small business'es that have been going for 20 yrs. +.
Were doomed! Do you want to call this super negativity. I know it is against American culture to be anything but super Vince Lombardi, gun-ho, we-can-do-it, ra, ra, boss, boom, bah. Thats what got us here in the first place. Along with the hyper greed on wall street, lending personnel, scumbag CEO's. We've become a go-for-it culture and damm the torpedos!
Redeem your stocks and bonds. Starve the Wall street beast.
Move your money to smaller safe banks
I am attending a conference in the next month. That conference attendance number is down about 25% from last year. In the business sector that I am in, we are seeing the "last gasp" of money flowing through the commercial RE and development, and some restoration type of contracts. The only bright spot is the ARRA money finally coming through in the Government Renovation and retrofit of Govt. buildings with "Green Technology". TBS, there is little movement outside that, and more are giong backwards everyday. The UE in our area hovers at just under 10%, when the next shoe falls, I believe we will be in big trouble, and will push UE to 13%. In this "Metro area" the revenues for state, city and county taxe revenues is off about 30% or more, meaning that cutbacks will be the rule rather than the exception.
We are also seeing a "rotation" out of the regular construction jobs, and into "house renovation", which I do not think there are not enough projects to "go around" for the numbers.
It smells and feels like despiration.
Austin Texas: Depending on how you define the economy, we've taken a hit but appear to be growing again, although somewhat slowly. Housing starts appear to be picking up. Real estate prices are stable. Help wanted signs popping up for minimum wage type retail and restaurant positions. Sales tax receipts down about 13% YoY, mostly as a result of autos. There are many more out of state cars on the roads here than is typical, particularly from the midwest.
Medium to long term view is somewhat more ominous. State budget deficit is huge $15B but not terrible as a percentage of total budget. Nobody's talking about it though and it will be a problem down the road if not addressed. Locally Seton Healthcare announced a layoff of 150 over the weekend because a larger percentage of their patient base is now uninsured and non-revenue generating.
BBottom line: Stable but no signs of strong growth on the horizon. Just one man's view.
I got 3 completely unsolicited job offers out of the blue last Monday, all in the span of 24 hours. That tells me things are moving again.
I got an interesting email from Nigeria, does that count?
Oh really? Because to me that smacks as desperation. Tragically so if people are coming to you asking for work.
I am Chumbawamba.
How much did they offer you compared to what you are making. That is what really the question is.
I had one guy try to convince me to move across the country to FL from MN saying that the housing has dropped enough to justify keeping the same salary. Which I think is comical.
Austin Texas: Depending on how you define the economy, we've taken a hit but appear to be growing again, although somewhat slowly. Housing starts appear to be picking up. Real estate prices are stable. Help wanted signs popping up for minimum wage type retail and restaurant positions. Sales tax receipts down about 13% YoY, mostly as a result of autos. There are many more out of state cars on the roads here than is typical, particularly from the midwest.
Medium to long term view is somewhat more ominous. State budget deficit is huge $15B but not terrible as a percentage of total budget. Nobody's talking about it though and it will be a problem down the road if not addressed. Locally Seton Healthcare announced a layoff of 150 over the weekend because a larger percentage of their patient base is now uninsured and non-revenue generating.
BBottom line: Stable but no signs of strong growth on the horizon. Just one man's view.
I take the train to the CBOT each morning and some time ago noticed a significant dropoff in passengers. I was speaking to the MS broker on the floor about this a few weeks ago, since he comes into Chi-town from another direction and he agreed; however, he also mentioned something that I hadn't noticed until he mentioned it: there are NO construction workers on Metra any longer.
Moreover, in the last few days I have noticed an even lesser amount of passengers on Metra.
Perhaps the "green shoots" are the weeds growing between the rails?
Hey Fidel...I'm in Crush....I'm not on a badge right now, but in the Grain Room I am known as "sink" (CNK)...come on by. I was thinking the same thing about passenger loads on the UP North Line....might be somewhat spring break related currently. I have started a collection of flyers from this or that service...landscaping, seal-coating and the like....more this year than ever...plenty of people willing to help around the house!
Key Biscayne, FL:
Almost all the small businessmen I know say business is way down. More vacancies in the office buildings here as well as in the shopping centers.
More houses are selling than vs. a year ago, but there is still a very high inventory of houses for sale vs. actual sales.
Note that Key Biscayne has a lot of rich foreigners living there who may not be much affected by the recession. Also K.B. is not much like the rest of America.
I´m retired with savings and gold, so not much affected (at least yet).
the gas is close to $3/ga now. I didn't know anyone who got a raise last year. There are more homeless people holding a sign, standing across the street looking for food/shelter/work.
I asked the mortgage broker for a loan for an investment property, and I was told to have 35% down, and they like 38%.
2002 is when it started for me. I got
layed off from my dot com dream job,
lost my retirement, and had to scramble
to find a job that would pay less than
half of what I had been making.
Everything the government has done
since 2002 has been to prop or defer
the inevitable. In 2002 there was not
much sympathy for the out-of-work IT
guy but now the perfect storm has
come for everyone. If you think you
are safe you are not, the perfect
storm is coming and you will get
wet. Prepare.
As I told my dot com staff 18 months
before we got layed off; pay off
your debts, do not buy that new
house, do not buy that new car,
save your cash, adjust now.
If you adjust now you will be better
off than if you wait till you are
forced to adjust.
Now it seems everyone is in the same
boat and everyone knows what I have
been talking about. Even the ladies
are more tolerant of men that have
uncertain employment issues whereas
in 2002 it was a showstopper.
When I visit the various University
campii I see armies of F1 visa
students (being funded by the
taxpayer) preparing for jobs that
no longer exist. They are all
slowing down their studies to
stay at the University as long as
possible. Everyone is engaged in
extend and pretend down to the
most recent Chinese or Indian F1.
Supply supply supply!
When I drive by the office real
estate there are endless vacant
small business offices where once
there was a vibrant and diversified
small business sector. It has been
wiped out. Demand, Demand, Demand!
The true nature of recession and
depression is to cleanse the
system of this. Capitulation at
all levels is a necessary step
that must occur before any true
recovery can begin.
Extend and pretend for nations,
corporations, individuals, and
yes, even immigrants will only
delay the inevitable. There
will be no waiting this out.
Borrowing to stay afloat in the
hopes that the economy comes
roaring back to bail you out just
will not work. The sooner we
all capitulate the better. This
is the same for Greece as it is
for the out-of-work VP that is
using student loans to keep from
having to face the music.
All of the Chinese and Indian students I know are now planning on heading back home after they graduate. In America, they would have to get a post-doc position for at least two (usually 3-4) years before they can even get a job in their field. Post-doc positions pay between $32K and 45K per year, not great for someone who just spent ten years in college. If they go back home, they can geta high paying job right away (not as high paying as they would have in America after their post doc, but the cost of living is so much lower). Rather than being the low man on the totem pole, when they get back home, they are placed in management positions immediately. If things get really bad, I might follow them back and see about getting one myself. Hopefully they won't mind employing a white person, as by then we will probably be understood to have destroyed much of the Western economy.
I Was offered a job in Germany for 25% more. Could not believe it.
Thanks for sharing bugs. I saw a special a few months back showing Indian families wary of allowing their son/daughter to marry anyone that is economically rooted in the USA.
i live in ne fla, about three blocks from the ocean. the half block ocean side of me has four of eight houses essentially unoccupied with none for sale or rent (at least no signs). makes me wonder what the shadow inventory really is. not autobiographically anecdotal, but lipsky's (of imf) comments in china about the g7's weak 5 needing fiscal austerity "as the recovery continues" caught my eye. this seems the rock and the hard place: weaker demand through fiscal austerity or weaker demand through higher yields. imo, a little (or maybe more) of both.
Charlotte is depressed. Way too much of our economy was bank related (Wachovia, B of A). High end houses are dead. Low priced stuff is selling some but not gang busters. Be interesting to see what changes after house credit expires. I own rental properties. Have cut rents by about 20% to hold good tennants. I have good properties. Others that didn't bother to keep properties up in boom times are sucking wind....having to spend $$ to fix up just to attract lookers and then still have to reduce rent to get leased. Anyone with cash flow issues is in trouble in next couple of years.
Charlotte tax revenue way down and local government is trying to scare public into some type of tax increase. Headlines are 600 teachers to be laid off and closing half the library branches....neither of which have to happen at that level if they adjust priorities elsewhere.
I'm older and thus have more savings, but our younger friends/families are hurting with a number out of work and not much on the horizon. Architect-no work, bank type-no work, IT for building materials-new job tons of travelling, retired neighbors helping grandkids with house payments, on and on.
If there is another leg down and unemployment benefits expire, there are going to be a lot of hurting folks (mainstream).
Commercial real estate is sad state. Way over built and office space out the wazoo. A number of small businesses have closed (strip mall types) but have to think more are coming. Marginal businesses.....antiques, sundries, pet supplies, etc.....just don't have to have this stuff.
Many friends and acquaintenances still don't get the severity of crisis. When I talk Depression, some look at me like I'm nuts. Some admit it's bad but don't want to hear that kind of talk. Mostly denial.
I'm in DC. Unemployed 6 months, tough to get an interview. Underwater with a jumbo mortgage, blowing through liquidity. A real bind. Work in CRE. CRE market, as Andy noted above, sucks. Gubmint's bailout-oriented response to banking mess has stopped RTC-type work, which could have been my salvation, from arising. As USA is now a BailOut, NannyState nation, DC will prosper long-term - may be the 'only show in town' - while simultaneously become even more intensely hated than it already is both domestically and globally. Fed gubmint is said to be world's largest employer, and gonna get a lot bigger still. 17,000 new IRS agents coming. Hmm. Perhaps we'll meet one day, over your tax docs spread across your dining room table.... Not to worry, though - Uncle Sam is your good buddy. Residential mortgage market, banking, student loans, autos, healthcare... Who's your daddy? That's right, Uncle Sam's your daddy.
Why haven't you defaulted on your underwater mortgage yet?
I'm not broke. Yet.
well why not pull the plug before you are,, pocket the payment ,,
Deficiency Judgment.
Oh, and here is something interesting to mull: http://market-ticker.org/
As a small business owner for 30 years, imho, the last ten wiped out an unimaginable number. Most of the ones I saw started were real estate related, obviously most are long gone. The others were tied to some large coropration, ie, having 80% of ur sales coming from one source. Those have also had a myriad of problems, mainly sales volume that have led to alot of lay-offs, that are not coming back.
I see it as two tiered, those who workd for large corps and government are okay. Everyone else pins and needles, not enough sales volume which translates into constant penney pinching versus running the business. I see more folks than ever going paycheck too paycheck.
McMansion holders are erily in trouble. Know quite a few, all of a sudden without bonuses, pay increases, and rising healthcare, energy costs, insurance, sending kids to college they are feeling squeezed, basically there is nothing extra for them.
I differ than most imho the problem is erratic energy and commodity costs, no business big or small can handle the volatility, thus, planning for growth is impossible. How do you budget for future healthcare and taxes right now, along with the bouncing ball of commodities.
Pivot Capitol has a good piece on China Bubble and it factual states Jim Chanos case. If they are right, alot of US sales have been exports to china the last 2 years, which anecdotally I have a few high tech friends who have confirmed this.
IMHO, folks are blind too China issues, they have so much overcapacity it's insane, when they stop pumping money and they will have too along will come australia and brazil spiders.
You do not go thru what we just went thru and be fine in 18 months.
The fact that people are happy and complacent scares me crapless. Don't worry, Be happy. 220 billion a month in deficit spending can people not do simple math anymore.
The fact that people are happy and complacent scares me crapless.
Just get a lobotomy - then you can be like the mindless masses that are happy and complacent.
"Just get a lobotomy - then you can be like the mindless masses that are happy and complacent."
Or mix some red wine with your Xanax and oxycontin before you watch the idiot Matt Lauer and then the View...
On second thought... take your Browning 9mm out of the drawer and shoot the teevee and sit in silence with your Xanax, oxycontin and red wine...
"limited, opaque, and, at worst, fraudulent" - Clothes make the man
Here in criminal law, where many of the offenders are young males, private defense attorneys could always rely on dad's credit card or a home equity loan because for some strange reason, avoiding jail always ranks high on the economic priority list. For the first time however, this has evaporated and while most criminal lawyers demand their entire fee up front, this is no longer possible with many clients. At the same time, we are seeing a large increase in economic crimes committed by older, first time offenders trying to pay medical and other bills.
I wound up in a flame war with a CDL on another site: He kept insisting that people were just "being stubborn" and they would willing shell out $50k for surgery. I pointed out that people like me--who don't have $50k--could not produce the money regardless of desire, reason, or need.
In WA state I've been trying to close on a duplex for 5 months now, but the hoops and new regs Fannie is putting on the bank is not allowing the loan to close. The bank received $18 million in TARP money, and I asked the branch manager why she doesn't use internal funds, primarily the TARP, and she said Fannie is more competitive in rates so they basically broker everything to the government. The TARP money costs them 5.25% so it isn't exactly "wholesale" money they would be loaning, and I believe the primary reason for TARP money is to stabilize their weak capital base since it's a credit to capital on the balance sheet.
I have a guy I work with who's been trying to refinance via B of A through Fannie for 5 months with no luck as well. Basically the government has taken over all home loans (been this way for years I know) and is stonewalling with regulations and indecision. Either intentionally or unintentionally the government is grinding the money machine to a halt and will have to nationalize or radically change the banking system within a couple years.
For affordable housing, multiple units...
Simply put - eye of the hurricane and the storm is intensifying.
Fantastic thread, super reads.
Central Virginia for the past 15 years. UVA is a good economic engine but I'm seeing a lot of cracks forming. My wife, a 4th year tech student, sees more unemployed in her classes. We run a tiny company and have about 150 residential clients and about 25 small businesses. A lot of the residential's are retired and lost a lot of paper wealth and have really cut back.
All are terrified. None understand Federal or State debt, many are diving into annuities, some ex NY state teachers are pissing their underwear.
Business clients struggle. An autobody shop told me many of their clients took the claims and are driving around in bashed up cars. Upside down in a car was a new listen for me.
Strip malls in some towns 30 miles from Charlottesville are at 50% vacancy. One or two projects in Charlottesville were halted. Eye sore.
Couple of CRE clients, worried as they saw friends loose McMansions and nothing they have is moving, banks are working with them. Right now anyway.
In the .75-3 million dollar a home gated community houses are in foreclosure, one guy owned the best pizza restaurant - people aren't dining out like they used to.
Simply put - eye of the hurricane and the storm is intensifying.
Commercial R/E is a ghost town here, residential the same, my whole family is in it in Colorado. If it wasn't a big military presence around here, it would be a dust bowl.
China is 'the model', far as Im concerned we'll likely never see the old USA. I dont care about a blip up here or there, factor in taxes and interest rates soon shooting way up soon coupled with a zero production economy. The whole game has changed completely.
People are looking for the green shoots of a rebounding economy all the time, but make no mistake- behind the scenes the govt is welding the lid shut on what you and I would consider a real economy. No one knows whats going to happen next, you cant build a business or an economy on constantly changing ham fisted rules and laws on business! And I'l say it- by a tyrannical Marxist govt!
Theyre designing a total top-down control, and unless youre THEIR friend and playing by their rules, they'll cancel your workers ID card. Really people, what do you really think theyre building here? A friendly free market business atmosphere in this country? Dream on.
Albuquerque has always been one of the most economically stable markets, but we've experienced no bounce. Our high-tech construction SMB is holding on for dear life, and another downturn may prove fatal. CRE is a joke, and residential construction has ground to a halt. Restaurants and businesses that have serviced this area for decades are going under.
I called a friend to ask how his auto parts business was doing. He said that he was surprised that business picked up the last 3 weeks. Perhaps it is due to IRS refunds. I have seen more and more people asking for money in front of stores.
auto part stores could be expected to do well in bad times as people decide not to buy a new car and extend the life of the current one through repairs.
Auto parts to repair an already owned car as opposed to buying a new one.
such is what my mechanic said
Last time I was getting my car serviced at the dealer, a service employee advised a customer (whose car was there for reasons unknown to me) to repair the brakes on their car immediately. The customer refused to have the brakes repaired and left without making an appointment. Drive more carefully, there are people not maintaining their cars in road worthy safety conditions.
Worse than that Swamp is that we allow teenagers to drive!
Prior to watching my 17 year old teenager driving away alone, the scariest thing I had ever experienced was jumping out the back of a perfectly good CH 47....
We have a repair shop, 5 bays, and some weeks he is slammed and other weeks he worries how he is going to service a million of debt. He, and I have a mutual client who stiffed us a few grand as well.
Residential is a ghost town here, residential the same, my whole family is in it in Colorado. If it wasn't a big military presence around here, it would be a dust bowl.
China is 'the model', far as Im concerned we'll likely never see the old USA. I dont care about a blip up here or there, factor in taxes and interest rates soon shooting way up soon coupled with a zero production economy. The whole game has changed completely.
People are looking for the green shoots of a rebounding economy all the time, but make no mistake- behind the scenes the govt is welding the lid shut on what you and I would consider a real economy. No one knows whats going to happen next, you cant build a business or an economy on constantly changing ham fisted rules and laws on business! And I'l say it- by a tyrannical Marxist govt!
Theyre designing a total top-down control, and unless youre THEIR friend and playing by their rules, they'll cancel your workers ID card. Really people, what do you really think theyre building here? A friendly free market business atmosphere in this country? Dream on.
economy=shit
QED
I work in a niche market, the manufactured home industry.15 years average of 2 houses per month we set up. Now we have noone signed up, I did my last client house 6 months ago. All of our clients have been "set money" seniors. We still get tourists from portland , but our restaurants are closing one by one. Our Dealer is having us work on a spec house now just to keep the skeleton crew.
Am hearing contractors going door to door offering their services at great discount 10.00pr hour. There are folks putting of getting their roofs done.
I live in an up scale burb of Memphis and no less than three separate cold house calls this past week from reputable contractors.... I hear it is much the same in Jackson, Josephine & Lane counties in Oregon... Two diverse locations, same action.
Heh - I knew you were a G-town snob! :-P
Zip code can matter in the selection of scooby snacks...
AZ: Our state is broke, $800 million in the hole and borrowed money to send out income tax refunds.
Our town is broke, went to a four day work week, cut staff dramatically, businesses still closing much faster than new ones opening. Lots of vacant commercial and office space.
Residential real estate still heading south. Sales up slightly in 09, but prices down. Foreclosures still dominate local paper's advertising. We depend on CA retirees, they aren't coming like they once did. The house next to me was completed in 2006, still for sale 3+ years later price dropped from $560K to $400K, current market value $350K.
Unemployment in real estate related business (construction, sales, mortgages, title companies, etc...) very high maybe 30-40%. Our local economy is basically retirees and those who take care of them. Health care and service businesses doing fine.
The Hispanic population (legal and illegal) is about half of what it was during the construction boom. Over the past three years, they have moved on to greener pastures.
The only hope for the future is an influx of baby boomers from CA and elsewhere as they start to retire. They will be the replacements as the current group of retirees die off. If retirees can't or don't relocate here, we will be a ghost town in twenty years.
Prescott, AZ
1. We know a regional manager of an Air Ambulance company that was TOLD that he would be getting a 50% cut in pay. If he wouldn't take it, they would find someone who would.
2. We just negotiated a 15% reduction in our rent.
Heading to the mountains south of you middle april for decompression-wouldnt be out of my way to meet a fellow ZH'r.
Prescott, AZ
I would enjoy that.
I live in the "quad city" area, too. It will be worse when the 25-30% reduction in property values hits next year's property tax receipts. The local school districts are really going to feel it.
At least it's sunny and dry here, it would be much more depressing if it was cold, cloudy and wet.
Lucky you. In the northeast, taxes never go down. The mill rate goes up to compensate for the loss of prop value, but never gets adjusted down when values go up. Lose lose.
Quote from Janet Napolitano (notice how she got out on time! what a hood this creep is):
"We bond for roads. We bond for other building construction. ..."
You left out how our governor has cut 350,000 people off the health care rolls. So, for the hospitals, they were getting some payment, not the most, but some payment on those 350,000. Now they HAVE to treat them for free. That's going to kill all the hospitals, which by the way, are the largest employers. I guess nothing will change until one of our Senators gets sick and the hospital is closed. Doesn't matter if you have insurance if there is no place to go.
On RE, just bought a $220,000 house for $45,000. A friend just lost his house to foreclosure, after a year of not having to pay any mortgage ( mortgage was $132,000) I might add. It sold at auction for $20,000, and the buyer flipped it next week for $15,000! Oops. Things are not looking good for Arizona.
My ex works for a major hospital in central phoenix.. She just
told me they were all called into a huge meeting where they were told.. 'they are losing $11 million a month, and all overtime is cut'. She said they've had to shut down
entire sections. I know A LOT of people that based their living off overtime, especially
prison guards and cops... they're hurting big time.
Phoenix NW: I've noticed a pickup in homes on the market. Foreclosures seem like
they're picking up steam along with the closure of small businesses.
CRE is imploding.. I've seen a couple store fronts lease space, but in the grand scheme
it's going out like the deathstar. On the far west side Amazon backed out of their new wharehouse they just built. Supposedly its huge. There are also huge wharehouses
sitting empty along the south side of i-10 along 83rd,75th,and 67th avenues.
On wharehous alone is 1.2 MILLION sq/ft!
I check job listings on craigslist for my trade once in a while.. it's gone from a page in a half per day to zero - three a day, with a slight uptick to about five a day.
Homless that are normall confined to downtown have spread to the suburbs..
CA retirees will bolt the Sanctuary State in droves for their favored AZ and NV when they can sell their homes. Unfortunately, all 3 States are saturated with a glut of housing inventory .
Although the Inland areas of SoCAL have price adjusted fairly dramatically, the coastal communities have yet to do so. Higher end res properties in certain areas of LA and OC represent a large segment of the shadow inventory in SoCal. That makes sense out of nonsense. These are the properties on which lenders will take a major hit when they transact....including blowing up the worthless HELOCs being carried at or near par behind delinquent firsts. CA leads the Nation in 2nd liens. The rents to ownership valuations are way out of whack.
In a " normal " cyclical real estate recession in SoCAl, the coastal areas come back first before the Inland areas. That's what is projected to happen again. But this time it won't happen without a pricing purge of the growing shadow group. That is still to come.
Right now, the only thing keeping unemployment from surging even more in CA is government employment. The No Pay Friday Furloughs aren't enough, as evidenced by a projected deficit of $ 20 billion for the State. Counties and municipalities are far into the fiscal hole as well. On March 15, 23,000 Statewide teachers got a pink slip notice to take effect in May ( may be fewer if an infusion of ObamaBucks materializes before then ).
Unfortunately, CA really is Greece on steroids.
From my vantage point, most if not all of the 23,000 teachers were hired after the influx of illegal invaders, who are in our schools by the millions. I'm not saying the 23,000 layoffs will affect the illegals directly, but that number and likely more were hired as schools ballooned not from indigenous populations, but from illegals in the 1990's and 2000's.
COKAFing
Complexity + Opaqueness Killing American Families
COKAFing. (It's a cool word don't you think?)
The level of complexity is so grand, nobody really knows what
any economy is going to do.
Shakespeare was right, "All the world's is a stage".
"Exit stage right" Snagglepuss
At the risk of "outing" my screen name....... I am in the accounting profession, my husband is in the construction industry and we live in Northern Florida and are self-employed. I read Zero Hedge and Pragmatic Capitalist every day and I check Kitco every day. As far as the construction side, we are doing okay. There is not much residential or commercial building going on, but enough to keep us eating. The construction jobs have gotten smaller. We have witnessed owners that have designed commercial projects, pulled permits, subsequently lost their bank funding and had to scrap the projects or renegotiate loans. The federal stimulus money is being held by State government. I think what happened is IF Florida got any money for "shovel-ready" projects, they just used the Federal money for already planned State projects and put the previously designated State money back into the budget. Shell games. Large construction companies are coming from South & Mid-Florida to bid on jobs. Construction companies are bidding jobs at a loss, just to keep the cash flow alive. It's better to loose 10% of your net income(worth) by bidding a job below cost than to loose 100%, by not bidding and retaining your employees and overhead. This business model won't last long. Large companies are bidding mid-size jobs, mid-size companies are bidding small jobs and the small companies have few or no jobs. A couple of years ago, people were so busy that you couldn't even get a contractor to come bid on a job, now you have 40 to 60 contractors bidding on hanging sheetrock.
The financial side is very exciting. I have been reading loads of economic books, it's a new saga every day. People are getting poorer and they don't realize why. I try to explain it in simple terms, but they are fixated on sound bites. All they know is that they are working harder, longer hours, and multiple jobs, but the rent, utilities, groceries keep going up. They don't understand why they can't seem to get ahead. Taxes are going up at a lightening pace and no matter how loud you scream at elected officials, they just don't get it. Our utilities, automobile and court fees have all gone up, but wages have not kept pace and the price of consumables have increased. People are being squeezed on all sides. I don't care what the officials say, inflation is on the rise. I shop for groceries & consumables...they are all going up. The only upside is that property values have gone down, thus decreasing property taxes.
I am a public works contractor in Washington State, and the market is gone. Not slow, but gone. I just crawled out of hybernation last week for the first time in 6 months and bid a small works job. It was invitation only, so we all knew there would only be about 5 bidders rather than the usual 30-40. The job had a $75,000 engineer's estimate and the bids were as follows:
Mine - 66k
then 65, 64, 52k
The winning bid was 35k. I had my 11 month old at the opening, and I got up and left when I heard 35k and anounced that I was leaving before they made him cry. Everyone laughed except the moron who bid 35k. This happened all last year, and thanks to the fucking SBA loans, all these dead companies are able to survive to take losses and ruin the market.
On another note, I tried to get a line of credit and was turned down by BECU(planned on building a house with cash but wanted some reserves just in case). Mind you I have no debt at all, and this would be a first lien holder line. I was told that my wife's income as a CPA would not qualify us because my income in 2007 and 2008 was large enough that they projected I had to make 16k a month to qualify for a 250 line of credit. So much for doing my part to stimulate the economy lol. Probably for the best.
There. This. This is literally what the Austrians mean by the failure to liquidate malinvestments. The companies big enough to take a losses (for now) are the ones dependent on abundant liquidity to finance the demand for large-scale projects and the market has now made them malinvestments. Credit Expansion just isn't there to drive demand anymore. Deflation is here, demand is gone and yet thanks to QE we are getting inflation in the quality-of-life basics.
Well done Keynes, Bernanke. Disaster averted.
The town I live in has the second most foundation companies of any town in the country. They are all stopped. As a RE broker, theonly thing I'm selling these days is REOs to investors with cash. I think in Connecticut, we are in better shape than most of the country, but it is very bad here too. Many commercial properties vacant and in the last year we have had massive business closures.
Economy will not improve untill demand for things and loans improve, and as we all know that wages of huge majority of population stagnated for 30 years. Income increase of top 1% doesnt help demand even tough will increse median wage income and trow the mud into your eyes.
Knowing all this, GOP still wants to make more welfare queens by reducing SS and Medicare that keeps those who enjoy them not to sink to beggers levels and makes them consumers. Not to mention that they were paying into it for their whole life and now want to enjoy the products of their work.
GOP wants to help corporations reduce the labor expenses for purpose of saving the companies. If companies need saving then they should not increase menagement bonuses, but we all know that every labor wage cut brings bigger menagement bonuses.
By reducing the wages of their own workers they are destroying their own customers. They might think that if only they reduce their workers wages, other companies won't and they will still have enough consumers to buy thier products. But that was happening over 30 years time and now every Union is destroyed except government employee unions, and Unions were only ones keeping labor wages on level to make them consumers instead of welfere queens.
30 years of damaging Unions that started with Reagan firing Air controlers and spiting on Unions gave us this lack of demand for loans and products that we can see now troughout the economy. For some time that lack of demand was disipated by borrowing from the home equities, but now it is end of it and we see how we swim in shallow watters.
And lack of health care for 47 million american residents makes them so close to becoming a welfare queens, it is just one illnes away or an accident.
GOP wants to give more power to corporations to control the wages of all americans and with that their buying power.
As we all know they will give smaller and smaller wages, especialy with this unemployment levels. And that will destroy many consumers and make them welfare queens.
Only Unions can keep welfare queen numbers down by protecting their wages and benefits.
Do not let this self destruction going, do not let corporations destroy their customer base, do not let GOP make more welfare queens.
Lets create more consumers instead of welfare queens and save economy, SS and Medicare.
You've got to get over this notion of "demand." It's ridiculous. We've had a managed economy for 60 years built on one command: "build suburbia."
OK, so it's here. Your "demand" was simply this organized, state-sponsored construction project for crackerbox houses sitting on quarter-acre lots. That's "demand"?
Get over it. Look for some different model than your suburban fantasy of "demand."
And notice that there is NO current commitment to MAINTAIN what has been built. "Maintain" is a different economic model than "demand."
We still can't quite let go of that "demand" thingy. It will kill us until we do, because we will still be running after this chimera "demand," which is exactly what you're doing.
Don't you realize you're living in a fantasy which never existed, doesn't exist now, and never will exist?
Sad.
Well, I guess we're screwed then. I don't need any more "things" nor do I need a "loan", least of all for another "thing".
Yup. That's what we need right now. China agrees with you on that one.
Leave me alone.
demand
i demand health care
i demand free food
i demand free housing
i demand free transportation
i demand free intertainment
i demand free education
i demand free
now take these shackles off my legs
I hope I didn't give you the wrong idea there my diving buddy.
I've been an entrepreneur all my life, never had a salaried job, nor hourly for that matter. All I have left in the world is paid for or accounted for with assets on hand. House and car can be paid with cash should the need arise. No credit card debt, no other financial obligations. So, I never asked for any of this. One reason is that I follow the teachings of wise ones who have gone before and predicted this situation. Yes, their timing has been terribly off! But that just lends credence to the supposition that TPTB can squeeze the last juices from us quite efficiently. I started gathering the precious metals when they were cheap -- I sweated buying gold at $400 thinking, "This is madness! $400 gold!". I just chuckle at the folks who say gold is in a bubble every time it goes down $20 or $50 or $100. Big deal.
I'm on your side...
Are you suggesting that the country follow California's lead where unions have been successful?
Are you suggesting that California is a different country?
As i wrote above that companies each hoped that if they reduce their labor wages they will still have consumers from other companies good wages, and that after 30 years of such thinking every company did reduce wages to all labor killing consumers overall. That same applies to states California and NY enjoy higher wages then the rest of the country and only benefit of that is that they have same prices for goods as everyone but overall they still have huge wgae inequality so their system did not work.
I am talking about Unions that need to be quantitively strong enough to rase the wages for the whole country, not just pockets as it is right now. Only governmnet employee unions are strong enough to uphold their decent wages.
And when i hear people asking for government employees to reduce their own wages( being rightfully outraged at abuses of menagers double and tripple dipping into government pension benefits) i am really surprised at shorsightedness that they are so revengfull and hatefull about others who live decently. Instead asking that everybody should earn such decent livable income, they want more people to suffer. Just because they see some sporadic outrageous abuse in government salaries. Unlike widespread abuse of selfdealing with menagement bonuses.
Central virginia is a mess...have friends unemployed and underemployed for months and a 3000 sq ft abandoned house next door that the bank refuses to foreclose on...
when that is settled, thing will be better in my mind...the simplest of simple indicators...
As the owner of a small business that makes a micro-luxury food product, I'm a bit surprised to see my sales remain steady into 2010. I do not plan on hiring until I see sustained growth and my capacity reaches 95% which I am nowhere near. I spend a lot of time in high end supermarkets and observe that they are still crowded and people are spending. What that means for the overall economy is a toss up cosidering I believe that American consumers are like goldfish, they will consume until they explode.
On a macroeconomic level, I do not believe the hype about subdued producer price inflation. It's absolute BS IMHO. Here's a few examples:
1. Cost of sugar went up 40% in six months. I kid you not.
2. Cost of plastic resin based packaging his increased 20% in the past year.
3. Energy/fuel costs are still sky high. I receive 26% fuel surcharges on my LTL shipping. I just do not understand when gas went up to $3/gallon a few years ago when times were good, everybody screamed bloody murder. Now, with unemployment sky high, nobody has a problem with it. Something just doesn't add up.
On a general level, I am quite frightened by the fiscal state of this country and most of the western world. I believe runaway debt will bring a serious fall to our way of life.
+1
"1. Cost of sugar went up 40% in six months. I kid you not."
200% Plus in two years... better than Gold.
Yeah, but.... Storage is tough and it attracts vermin.
Maybe it's not all that different after all?
thigh slappin' funny, that...
'Tis worth it in the long run, my agrarian friend. With the right caliber any vermin can be controlled. I prefer .223.
Absolutely. I just picked up a beautiful mini-14 target in stainless.
I'm in So. NH and many are hurting, although Walmart is still always full. The sheeple know who their master is. I remember when their big claim to fame was how everything in their store was made in America. Boy that changed in a hurry didn't it? I work for a small subsidiary of Owens Corning, so far so good. We make roofing underlayment, I don't know where all this stuff is going, we make 8000 rolls of it a day. We are fairly lucky though UE is only around 7.5% Watching the Healthcare debaucle right now, if that passes game over.
Good choice! I have a Mini-14 as well. Haven't spent a lot of time with it yet, but I intend to get proficient.
Got a relatively inexpensive sight for it and some massive magazines as well as the issue capacity. Those old ammo boxes sure come in handy!
I've got my boogie-bags prepared and all the camping gear at arm's length. Threw in some pre-1964 coinage to make quick trades if needed. Stocked up on over-the-counter medicines as well. The meth-heads have made iodine scarce! Go figger.
Your part of the country should make it easy to find some new friends who raise chickens and know how to garden. I'm cultivating (pun intended) those friends as well.
and you CAN eat it! (couldn't resist)
That's pretty good.
I'm guessing that by 'everybody screamed bloody murder' you mean that you saw a lot of people on TV complaining.
Perhaps I can clear this up for you. A few years ago the politics of the administration did not so closely match those of the mainstream media. People were constantly seen on TV and in newspapers/magazines etc. 'screaming bloody murder' about a lot of things: war, Guantanamo, rendition, Patriot Act, gas prices, etc. I remember even hearing complaints about the unemployment level and the economy. Now, with the new media-approved administration, not so much.
I guess this is why I harp so much on this issue. People don't seem to make the connection between where we are now, and where people get most of the information to form their perception of the world around them.
And yes, both parties are equally bad. It's just that one has the media to reign them in. Unfettered and unrestrained corruption is, in my view, what we have now. The fox is guarding the hen house, and the chickens are just starting to realize what is on tonight's menu.
Yes the MSM is definitely under Obama's control. The weekly bank closings were always a story on Yahoo and MSN but this past week they buried the closings. The only way I found out about the 7 banks that closed was from www.dailyjobcuts.com
"All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others." George Orwell
That kind of information is not something conducive to keeping the masses in the dark.
"Yes the MSM is definitely under Obama's control."
Yes, total control. Thats why they did not report that federal judge ordered for ACORN defunding was unconstitutional, and also they reported that another judge cleared ACORN and they workers of any wrongdoind because uncut and unedited videos tell completely different story then you were fed by FOX, NYT, WP and many others.
And also they all reported about "death panel" lies, and also they all report about well documented financing of Tea Party organisers by wealthiest americans.
And the most interesting, all MSMs are reporting about Siebel Edmunds, FBI former translator for Turkish, farsi and kurdish languages, That Bush gaged twice from testifing about blackmail and bribery of meny republican and couple democrat congressman. ANd finaly she testified to the federal court about it after 8 years of being silenced by Bush' lawyers. You can read about it only in Hustler and Brad Blog.
Obama owns MSM pffffrt
I couldn't agree with you more.
Is it possible that the reason you're seeing relatively constant demand for your product that it's a luxury item and therefor subject to inelastic demand?
It would make sense. It's not like the upper-class are the ones who are having to change their spending habits...
FWIW, on sugar - blame your congressman: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Fanjul_Brothers
Socialized risk and privatized profits , thats what we got. Lets take a vote . Who wants all that money back from the oligarchy, reshuffle the deck and try again?
Tyler, the soapbox was just repo'ed.
Reality is always a lagging indicator, but it has the last word.
I am about as bearish as a they come about the future of the U.S. economy, but anecdotal evidence in Colorado suggest things are stabilizing to slighly improving:
- Colorado state budget numbers coming in better than expected
- Residential real estate prices flat to slightly up
- Ski slopes and the traffic getting to the slopes seem to be strong
- Foot traffic in stores and malls seems reasonably strong, but small business stress is high with a larger than normal number of business closures
Apprently the numbers for the Colo Budget is not "up":
http://www.krdo.com/global/story.asp?s=12168925
thanks for the bracing dose of reality E-man. Sour Grapes was taking the lame duck governor at his word...
sour grapes ditto am in colorado have been for last 40 years.
we have a winery but don't want no frickin sour grapes.
i am investing in a new wine delivery service. premium fine wine in a keg. these kegs are made in germany, so the reliable german engineering assures quality. the wine business has to get "green" and get rid of the glass and waste.
initially probably put $75,000. into these kegs, gas carbonator's, nitrogen pump system.
these system's are huge in europe and very popular in san francisco. like exchanging the beer keg and keep reusing it over and over. wine can stay fresh for up to 120 days. booze will be a good barter for us to. we employ an additional 10 worker's during crush and now bottle season.
we buy grapes from local farmer's, hire local workers, and sell in state. it is old school business but we aren't looking to get rich just do what you love and work hard.
Curious as to what you per keg cost is?
Also, what is the keg capacity?
again, i am not the brains in this business. just the money honey.
http://www.wineinakeg.com/
11L and 15L
i will ask, per keg cost? good business question, meaning what we will charge.
this article in bloomberg was a little sobering, though. but we are small and these guys used the vineyard as an ATM, am thinkin.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=auscOWSUL1cQ&pos=11
Gotta love it, free wine year round. Once I get through this current gauntlet I'm running I plan to acquire some fertile ground for vineyards as I'm in wine country myself. I've always want to have a winery :)
But first I gotta get the cattle ranch off the ground ;)
I am Chumbawamba.
i know you would be a hoot as a neighbor. my next plan, grow the grapes but don't ferment them. just make wine grape juice. it is just a beautiful smooth taste with all the goodies. and your base just opened up to all ages and religious people.
Catholics are my favorite alcoholics
chumba, if you're seriously thinking about starting a vineyard from scratch, it's best to think far ahead of the game. grow a few vines now from seed and by the time you get that fertile ground, you'll have nice mature ones to start with. should be easy to find some nice organic wine grapes up there to score some seeds from yes?
"get rid of the glass and waste."
you know glass may be the most cost & process-efficient, recyclable material there is. it's just that most of the glass gets contaminated when mixing with plastic, etc. (if it's recycled at all). plus the bottles can be reused easily, if a producer that uses it, works the return & reuse variable into their equation (like all the bottlers used to do).
with that said, that's quite a wonderful biz idea you have. wish you best of fortune.
D/FW TBTF mortgage customer service manager....
Let me tell you a few things about my job.
I see files on a daily basis that haven't made a mortgage payment in two years, but aren't being forclosed on.
I see files on a daily basis where the second lien even though the first has been short sale'd, deed in lieu'ed, or forclosed that is still open and not lien released.
I speak with customers, on a daily basis, desperate for help that call in for a modification, who didn't have an escrow account before, who then have their accounts immediately have an escrow account enforced upon their loan; which makes their monthly payment jump at least a couple hundred dollars or more; of course.
I've been unemployed, found employment (if you can call it that), my wife was laid off a couple of months ago (HR), and is now seeking employment.
Oh, and my $140,000 purchase price home? It's worth about $125,00 for me and the county, but I'm sure it's being held at 140k on the books of whoever owns it.
Dallas/FtWorth = heavy churn, hit and miss depending on one's individual situation.
upstate NY.
i've been unemployed for 2 years now, there simply aren't any jobs for my background in banking, title insurance. i'm looking somewhat desperately now as i need something for 7 years until i collect social security. i've got a feeling i am going to end up with a job on the very low end of the economic spectrum. same is true for spouse, who might have a job soon as a cashier only due to a connection. we were always solid middle class and never spendthrifts; our debt ratios were low and we saved. At this stage, our only debt is a 16k balance on a first mortgage that will end in 4 years and a p&i payment of $325/mos. We struggle on unemployment benefits which will end in 2 weeks; even with virtually zero debt, it is very difficult. I cannot imagine how tough it is for other families who have big mortgages, car loans, credit cards, etc. I guess my point is that if it is so difficult in my situation, it is that much tougher for those with debt who are unemployed or working under capacity. We spend absolutely zero on discretionary items. it is clear that our standard of living has declined and the only reason we are still afloat is due to savings over the years and our prudent lifestyle. I may be forced to sell our house in another year depending on the job situation as we may have to convert the real estate to cash in order to survive.
the housing boom never really hit upstate NY but the amount of houses on the market right now is absolutely astounding to me. sales of houses are slightly down but not really much compared to the boom times: again, remember that upstate NY has been dying for years. when i see what is on the market now vs actual sales, the only conclusion I can draw is people are desperate to get the hell out of here.
someone above mentioned unemployment insurance and certainly we have plenty of discussions on ZH about this. irrespective of the extension signed into law last week, there were no increases in the tiers, therefore many people unemployed in early to mid 2008 either are or will be out of unemployment benefits shortly. NY had the max of 99 weeks are many are falling off of that now with absolutely no further benefit income to come in.
gasoline here just hit 2.99/gal.
one of the most amazing things i am seeing now is the number of layoffs and threatened layoffs in school districts in New York, which is the last thing I thought I would see due to the enormous clout of the teacher's union in NY. Sales tax revs are clearly down and the politics of that shrinking pot of money are very much in the news.
I'll add some more later perhaps.
Best wishes
Thanks Miles!
DH... I had no idea. Oldskool ZH best wishes to you. Always love your perspectives.
Thank you Lothar....I genuinely feel for those who have much more difficult conditions. Particularly those with children.
Yeah no doubt man. My neighbor wants me to have some prayer sessions with me whenever I go over there to visit. I told him the other night I am in much better shape than other folks or even over half of the population of the Earth. For me to ask God for a job or some relief of my parents problems is about the most arrogant thing I can do. Moreso, I am grateful. Or "Wish it could be better, glad it's not worse!"
Then pray for someone else, or your neighbor!
Hang in their, DH. Your clear-headed thinking will get you through anything.
I am Chumbawamba.
Thanks Chum...I appreciate it....never give up!
"If you get confused, listen to the music play!" ;)