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Open Thread: The Real State Of The Economy
Over the past two years, one of the most salient topics of discussion has been America's collapse into a Chinese state of economic disclosure - limited, opaque, and, at worst, fraudulent. Due to Zero Hedge's extremely "eclectic" selection of readers who are professionals in a variety of industries, we would like to take the opportunity to hear from all of you on what the true state of the US economy is where you are - be it (un)employment, inventories, overall business conditions, moods, general supply and demand, etc. Consider it an objective, crowd-sourced, non-manipulated business perspective.
This will likely be the last open thread for a while.
The soapbox is yours.
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Best wishes. I used to fly for Mohawk up there - when it tanked I was out of work for a year, with one offer to work in the building industry, 2 days before unemployment stopped I got an offer from a large regional. Great place to raise kids, skiing is bad only one month a year but man, tough place to find work.
DH,
New York State is actually one of my favorite places. I always enjoy your posts. Perhaps you can find work with a bankruptcy attorney. They could use your background, your level-headedness (dead or not) and your clear, concise writing style.
All the best.
DH,
All the best to you.
And thank you for your contributions here on ZH ...your thoughts are always among the very best
News from Key West and the Florida Keys: The old saying all the way back to the 1970's here was, " when construction stops,' i'll be on welfare". It stopped. Monroe County has gone bankrupt 9 times in 60 years...the last time was in the 1960'. Each time the State takes the charter until the county pays back the debt. Guess what, we never have. So that makes us the only county in the nation without home rule (sorta like Puerto Rico is to the USA). Now for years everyone was mad a hell because we DID have the money to buy back our charter, but the State decided it liked playing big brother in every facet of our lives ( and they did!) Now, it is the best thing that could have happened to us...we are broke again and the State of Florida has to take care of us because we are a ward of the State! Were it not for the Navy here, we would be a dust bowl. Tourism is in the toilet. Stores closing. The termite ridded gargages everyone call homes here, that sold here for 1 million two years ago are now 500,000 and falling. Why were it not for the CONGRESSMEN here just a few weeks ago buying distressed houses, there would be hardly any RE sales at all. Half my friends have lost their home or a rental. The only ones who have NOT BEEN HURT are the ones with government jobs, be it Federal/military/State/County. My RE taxes just spiked 30% and all school taxes, and at the same time we now find out that 5 MILLION plus dollars are missing from the school system (a system of maybe 10,000 kids county wide), and an expendature of $339,000 for a hot dog stand and a school playground! In two years time, my income has gone from 60K to 5K, while the public service employees salaries have grown 3 to 8% compounded yearly ( that is about 10% in two years in most cases). Some cruise ships still come, but they don't spend anything and the cost for the police to "patrol" that end of town has skyrocketed and benefits a hand full of businesses at the cost of everyone.
Paradise???? The grass is not greener here, it is all rocks and stones fertilized by coruption and greed.
Los Angeles:
Commercial real estate a total disaster, tons of vacant new concrete tiltups and office buildings. Appraisal values have been cut in half since 2007.
Lots of vacancies in apartments, but interestingly, cap rates have collapsed by 100b.p. in the last 3 months as bottom fishers have come out and are now bidding up the prices of multi-family units.
Single family homes in the Inland Empire and High Desert have taken hits up to 60%, but westside properties are only down about 20%.
But industrial business activity is really booming, people are starting to hire again. Strongest sector is aerospace.
Just within the last two months, traffic has been getting horrendous, a lot more people on the road. Gasoline hovered around $2.99 for many months, just recently it popped up over $3.00.
As usual, the high end luxury neighborhoods and communities have been relatively unfazed, people still spending money like crazy.
Aerospace spending is a good indicator of stimulus. You're seeing the end of it--should last another couple of months. Aerospace is about the most overbuilt, useless, make-work welfare program there is. Shall we go make a tour of all those planes sitting in the desert?
Aerospace or defense? How about a war?
i have friends and family in LA. They are telling me crime is going bonkers.
muggings and burglaries are on the rise.Lets not forget we have tent cities.
Vacancies in LA? Hmm... time to see a lawyer about setting up that porn gig... <_<
We're having it "broken to us gently" that there is work for about 20% of the American labor force. There is simply nothing for most workers to do now that suburbia has been built. As Howard Davidowitz put it, there are 25 square feet of retail space for every consumer in America. America needs about 12.
Good luck dealing with ALL those USELESS workers.
If you want to see a real problem develop, look at the underemployment rate in urban areas. Regardless of what happens in suburbia, unemployment is increasing dramatically in urban areas.
Class warfare anyone?
> Class warfare anyone?
Ummm ... No thanks!
whether you want it or not class warfare was going on for centuries, only during the 50's-70' government was on the side of labor and thats when the economy was booming and created middle class. Since Reagan steped on Unions (fired air controllers) was that government stopped protecting the labor and this is what we got. It is all about that no protection for middle class from class warfare. Minimum income for majority and you loose consumers.
It is globalisation that is equalising the wages all across the globe and only government can stop this forces. If you want not to have government protection keep arguing against taxes and voting for GOP.
Orange County CA:
No temp jobs for CPAs during the current tax season. Robert Half says not only are there no temp jobs, firms are laying off accountants now. This is unprecedented during tax season.
Rumors are firms here will do 40% furloughs of CPAs before July in preparation for new fiscal year. Unemployment here is double digits.
In the California Central Valley farming areas it's 30%. In one town there it's a staggering 40%.
Utah has unemployment of 7%, 2% under national average. But a friend there says he got three calls in one day asking if he had work - for $8 an hour shoveling goat manure.
Cost pressures are immense on small/medium size businesses - i.e. those that don't benefit from the stock market Ponzi. As a result, businesses are looking to cut costs everywhere including on accounting services. One of my vendors just stopped using their expensive outside accounting service - the bookeeper studied up on accounting and will handle the books now at the same pay level. You will see a lot more of this over the coming years. In fact, I enjoy hearing and reading about accountants and lawyers losing their jobs - it's about time they started to feel some pain. Engineers like myself had to make the "adjustment" a long time ago.
http://www.outsource2india.com/services/tax.asp
Mad Money is still on TV so I guess all is well. :-/
How can the presence of Cramer be considered well? :P
Archie Norman, the chairman of ITV, said yesterday that the UK is facing an economic "national crisis" worse than that faced by Margaret Thatcher at the end of the 1970s, according to the UK Telegraph.
Norman, who was formerly a Conservative MP and shadow minister, said, "I think that this country is facing - in terms of the economy - a national crisis."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/mediatechnologyandtelecoms/media/7488777/ITV-chairman-UK-faces-national-crisis.html
Which brings me to this post from Mega (master of British Brevity), a frequent blogger on iTulip’s Forum News who occasionally has commented on Zero Hedge. Here is his post March 11, 2010 from iTulip:
Mega shuts down his engineering company
It's Ok, because of having lived though the 79-82 recession & 89-92 recession i made careful plans. I got plenty saved & i think i am in with a good chance of a job locally.
Its a very hard thing to do, but easy choice..........65% of my clients are bankupt & the rest are not ordering ANYTHING. I been in this game for 25 years & my own bussiness for 16........its never been this bad!
At some point this has got to explode up UK PLC?
Anyway am off to look at the jobs page.
Here are some iTuliper replies:
**Glenn Black (Ontario, Canada)
My engineering company was 25 yrs. serving the automotive industry, and is but a shadow now. I left my partner to hold down the fort, insufficient business to feed all of us, and went to seek my fortunes elsewhere.
Give yourself the time & opportunities for adequate grieving of your loss. It will take quite a while. Each month, from my experience, the pangs will hurt a little less, and will be a bit shorter in duration. I don't think they will ever go away 100%.
There will be a lot of grieving everywhere for the next couple of decades.
**shiny
So sorry to hear the news, Mega. I wish you all the best. May you land on your feet!
I'm in the same boat. Sales in my e-commerce store have fallen off a cliff. For the first time since I started over five years ago, I might not be able to meet my (very low) expenses this month. The income I've been bringing in has been used to supplement my husband's salary and save for retirement. Looks like it's time to hunker down and pray we can ride it out.
I'm depressed about losing my business. I built it from scratch. I learned HTML and wrote the website myself because I couldn't afford to pay someone to do it, then I learned how to optimize so now I'm listed at the top of Google in my niche. I have a lot of my heart in it. Sad to let it go.
**ThePythonicCow (North Texas)
Well, not sure this is the right thread to post this -- but my son (a young man) just landed two jobs today. He's away right now delivering pizza, and later this month he will help collect the U.S. census. News of both jobs arrived via phone calls today. Both are crap jobs, but that's ok.
My condolences to the others posting job losses. Hang in there. Adapt. Be flexible. The human being is an amazingly resilient creature.
**roxtar
No job is a crap job, at least not in my world..... I pray that one day I'll be able to get out of my college education what I put into it (money wise at least).
**stetts
Dear Mega,
Your posts have educated, amused and enlightened me.
I am saddened to hear that individuals with your talent and verve apparently are not immune to the effects of this economy.
I wish you the very best of luck and may well join you in the unemployment line as my social security and retirement checks inevitably march toward their vanishing point.
Take care. Stetts
**Sharky (New Zealand)
Mega, a friend of mine in the UK who works in IT said he and several others he knows have had to send out more than 1,000 CVs / resumes before finding a job, and that hiring managers are completely buried with job applications. I hope your experience is better.
**Jeff (Florida Keys, Mid-coast Maine)
Good luck, Mike. There's stuff to do for sturdy lads, and even those of us a little shop worn. After decades in high tech ventures, and a quick decade in and out of real estate, I'm settled into a business that I hope will survive sovereign defaults, loss of electrical grids, death of the internet, and hell, probably a global version of an electromagnetic pulse- making shoes in a 3rd world country.
No quick riches like in the old days (with EJ and other pals) but everyone needs shoes, kids feet will always grow, and cows and cotton should be with us forever, so no supply worries. Yes, we use hand woven fabric. And sewing machines that still have treadles. And skilled craftsmen, remember those?
You'll do well.
**touchring
If you're in the building engineering business, you may want to go to China. Half the building and construction in the world is done there.
Although have they run out of space in the cities, but they have started building in the countryside.
**aaron
Me too (business down the tubes). I feel for you, Mega.
There is a good point that Charles Hugh Smith makes in is (great) book that resonated with me. Basically, things are so bad that many business people will think it is all not worth it. Taxes, regulations, politics... Why start a business, work your ass off, only to enrich others? I know it all my fault (I have been trained well), but more than 80% of my efforts were "lost" to taxes & banksters. There is something liberating about going to job, getting a paycheck, and having a few hours a week to spend with your family. How many others (much smarter than I) will make the same decision? How many inventions will be lost? How many jobs will not be produced?
**sunskyfan (Albuquerque, NM)
I have been self-employed for 7 years. Things have collapsed unless you are in a long term contract situation. I think the economy is that way. If you have the momentum of an existing contracts you haven't felt the pain yet. No new contracts or business generating. If you work for the Feds you are golden.
**santefe2 (Santa Fe, NM)
If you work for the Feds you are golden. This has been the key for success in the US over the last couple of years. Our customers have benefited from a 30% discount on our product from a Federal tax discount and the product itself has moved down in price another 30%. There is currently a bill before Congress to add an additional 30% reduction in cost. We're business people, but we're following the lead of the Federal government. I don't see this trend ending in the next 2-3 years.
**cbr
took my lumps getting out of fortune 500 executive illfestyle (complete with a 3rd life-wave of total savings wipeouts), but fortunate to be in the premier fair/concert/rodeo business now. business is literally booming (where else can you buy tickets for an all day event including a great carnival, darn near a zoo, rodeo, and major artists (black eyed peas, etc, for $16?).
we are having an all time record year.
value staycation rules the day.
http://www.itulip.com/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=5
I live in Hong Kong. I can confirm to all that busloads of loaded mainlanders are roaming the streets scooping up all manner of designer goods and bidding on $50 million dollar condos, with the money you all are spending on giant screen TVs, mobile phones and electric salad spinners.
MADE IN USA:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_wkgIzuqJM0w/S5MxVx-L4nI/AAAAAAAAC5Q/2W2Mv176DO...
Actually, my small business really hasn't been hurt, but I live in a South Dakota. Our economy tends to lag the national economy when times are good or bad (not as good or bad).
I am very concerned for country...
Massive consumer and Gov debt.
Ever decreasing manufacturing base.
It seems that when new technology is developed, manufacturing of the product is sent to the developing world or China. Workers in the US seem destined to compete with cheaper foreign labor. As far as China being a bubble, I believe the underlying fundamental economy in China is far healthier than ours. Our government lives in a folly, look at California or the US government. They are both stone cold broke, but the wasteful and marginal spending continues as though there isn't a problem and we are rolling is cash. I don't see how the fiat based world currency system ends with a happy result.
PS. I know some folks in construction related work, and there is some activity, but most are hurting
KC here and have been in the construction industry for 35 years--it is on its knee's--nothing-nada-zero. More than 70% of the homes up for sale are REO. Mucho commercial property EMPTY--wife works for Harris Comm and they have just recieved layoff date(outsourced) in May and have the balls to fly the replacements in from India for training-they call it knowledge transfer NO KIDDING........ I T is the next shoe to drop. Went to a meeting with a State rep last week and he actually believed that Missouri being 1 billion in the red was not that much---what a bunch of ankle humpers.
Iceland is having an unexpected volcanic eruption today. Folks are having to move fast.
Charleston, SC - I sell commercial trucks and things have picked up a little bit. Boeing is building and trucks are running for the time being. New 2011 trucks (medium duty- about $4k more than last year's prices due to emissions requirements/ Heavy Duty $8-10k more than last years price due to emissions requirements) are a good bit more expensive so used truck purchases have picked up dramatically.
We are in a relatively good, but many businesses have shut down. I think the recent pick-up is temporary. We went from selling 100-140 new trucks/year to selling maybe 15 last year. Anyone bidding for work is bidding as low as they can. Anything to get work and make the payments. Lots of guys pissed at this because nobody can make any money.
There are some road projects going on and a few other things, but nothing like it was. New truck market is going to suffer. Nobody really buying trucks this go 'round. Heard that fleets and major companies will wait until 2012 (the scuttlebutt floating around, at least) to purchase new trucks.
Houses are selling...sister and her husband's was sold within a week.....paid $180k 6 years ago and sold it for $230k. Not too bad, I guess.
Buddy's wife has a buyer after one week of being listed and is scheduled to close end of April.
Condo prices have dropped dramatically. Dad bought one for $165k two years ago and they are selling for $120k at the moment....I'm waiting to buy one at $100k.
All-in-all, people around here are in pretty good spirits. This area is more "affluent" and has tended to weather things better than other parts of the state/country. I don't look for things to stay this good here in the future. Lots of cutbacks/talks of cutbacks in the public sector....and private sector, from what I've heard are not hiring.
One other anecdote....a good buddy is foreman of a group that does historic restoration/preservation....biggest name in that biz around here and he says they are back to mid nineties levels of work/employees. Basically, if you took a snapshot from mid-nineties and one from today, compared them you wouldn't notice a difference.
In my opinion, we have a lot of excess that needs to be taken care of before we can head down a sustainable path.
Been a remodelling contractor west of the Windy City for 20 yrs. Always thought business was interest rate sensitive, now I know it is credit availability sensitive. Everyman above had it right. All the new construction carpenters are now competing with me. Dividing up a shrinking pie into ever smaller pieces.
Read an interesting article about the wealthiest counties in the US. In 1980, DuPage Co. Ill. was the third richest in nation. Now it isn't in the top 25. Six counties in Md and Va have all moved into the top 25. I suspect it is because Uncle Sugar is taking our money from flyover country and hiring more bureaucrats to buy homes around DC
PS. Missing Link must be an electrical engineer
Denver. I work as a researcher at the University of Colorado. Large cuts coming to all levels of education funding as the state tries to balance the budget. Tuition at the Boulder campus increasing 9% this fall, and this is just the latest in many years of such increases.
Closed my car dealership in Colorado in '08 after showroom traffic dropped to nil and we had to sell our building. Everyone I know is deleveraging, selling and tightening the belt. I went back to work for others and am making a living, but business is definitely off by half from the peak. Credit expansion only works when people are willing to strap on more debt. I am not planning on another credit purchase in my lifetime.
Casino Related (Not NV)
My employer gets most of it's money from a connection to a casino and a few years back couldn't waste money fast enough, including asking for suggestions about buying new tech toys. Now they cut the pay raise plans as well as most budgets. We need a piece of software we can pick up for 40k (which is crazy cheap for this) and I'm being told I'll probably have to dev it on my own, which will cost more than 40k (my time and other factors). I'm also idling a project because I need a 15k security cert that was supposed to be bought about 16 months ago (well before I started).
Talked to the CIO and was told that any department asking for money just gets laughed out of the room. On the plus side because we are so under staffed and because I have about 2+ years of projects lined up by my boss, I know my job is secure as long as this place is around.
So I know the local casinos are getting trashed. Looks like retirees are not willing to dump money as much as before into the one armed bandits. I drive by the casino and sometimes I swear there is more cars in the employee parking lot!
The only upside I've heard about is that if you are willing to move it looks like there is software development work out there. A few of my friends are in that field and some have had to move to different states but they have been able to find work. Though they all have like 5+ years development experience and know several languages, not sure how it looks for fresh college kids.
What I have seen is that the prices of what the poor and middle class needs to buy have been rising, while other prices have been stagnant or falling. This translates to
food and fuel -- more expensive
everything else (including wages) -- steady to cheaper
While actual unemployment is well above 10%, most people (let's say 4 out of 5) are still employed, and so it is a slow boil situation. Most people know friends and relatives who are unemployed, but aren't (yet?) unemployed themselves.
No real reforms have been made to the system. Just bailouts to the well-connected at the expense of the middle class.
very good point about food and fuel. Companies like GS and JPM know they can bid up these because people need it. Everytime we fill up or get food, we are paying a tax to wall street vultures.
Metro Detroit.
Personally i have no sympathy for those outside the industrial midwest who were adequately warned about the ensuing depression. The manufacturing states should have been seen as the bellwether for the US economy but instead were ignored by greedy home flippers and wannabe stock market speculators.
Personally, things are OK for me. Although I'm not in the top 1%, everything around me is actually getting cheaper, it's easier to find parking and no waiting at restaurants.
In WA state as well, king county.
The building that the dot com I work at has had open spaces for at least a year now. The shipping around here has been horrendous, big drops in volume, only things still moving are oil and bulkers.
Driving home, from Seattle to the Eastside (bill gates land), every stupid little strip mall has empty spaces. For lease signs as far as the eye can see. My favorite pizza place went under about a year ago, the retail space is still empty. My favorite Mexican place went under a couple months ago, sitting there empty.
I see the same houses with for sale signs for months.
More homeless people begging at intersections where they never used to be.
The local Chipotle appears to still be doing well though....
Want a great ride between Seattle and the east side try Lake City Way to Bothell or Woodinville then head to Kirkland, Redmond or wherever.... For a great taste of the north side between the two. Or for an even better time take 99 south to Federal Way then cut down to Auburn then head back to the east side via the East Valley Hwy through Kent & Renton. heh
Be sure to stop at Rick's while you're on Lake City Way since you're taking the scenic route - check out prices on double-wides around the top.
Ya, after I hit Freddies to watch all the tweakers flail I'll swing by and pick up the queen of my dblwde....
Another green shoot. http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2011431935_colu...
RE in the north shore of Chicago was dead, but I hear from the surveyors and attorneys that it is busy right now with short sales, and some foreclosures. Apparently some regulatory change made short sales suddenly attractive, maybe the waiver of income tax.
Central OK:
The rre building boom continues. This is supposedly a recession proof area but that is only because we have been in a depression for 30 years. Wages are low as always. The state gubmint has revenue shortfalls. imo the stimulus(s) and house tax credits are the only thing keeping low-middle re afloat. The upper end is starting to stagnate as people who uber-leveraged are having more trouble finding greater fools. If you have money (or a decent job) and low overhead this is a great place to live, if not it is a really hard place to make a go of it.
I also live in Central OK, Midwest City to be exact. Heard on the radio (KTOK) the other day that the UE rate went up in OK from 6.7 to 7.0 %. Also heard on the radio, and saw in the Daily Oklahoman that close to 1900 homes were foreclosed in Feb., a 6.5% increase from Jan. These are both not good signs from my perspective.
My wife and I were both unemployed through most of 09, but fortunately that has changed. Although I will say both of us now work in jobs where the income is derived from the Federal government. She works in a medical facility and I work as a Civilian at Tinker AFB. So things look good for us, while they appear to be crumbling everywhere else.
Yes, we are saving a lot for the rainy days to come.
small world. some forums have dozens of okies. it always surprises me. I'm glad you-all found decent jobs. :)
"...house tax credits are the only thing keeping low-middle re afloat."
Agreed.
Cincy, OH. My was brother was telling me yesterday that his buddy, a realtor, was urging him to buy a house quickly before it's "too late" and the tax credits and discounted prices come to an end... I feel that buyers will dry up and prices will resume their slide with vigor after April and told him as much. Also, I work for a major financial services company here and they just did another round of layoffs (strategic alignments) earlier this month. We may not be in free-fall anymore, but it still feels like the primary trend in the real economy here is down.
Fidelity cutting that NoKy campus... again.
Indeed it is...I drive past it about 2-3 times a week. Humana is getting rid of a large number of their employees. I was advised by a freind that works there that Humana will lay off a lot more when the Health Care bill gets shoved thru...
My geographic area used to be maily manufacturing jobs, government, and university. The manufacturing jobs were wiped out over the last 20 years. Government tried to turn the area into a high tech campus, which worked for a while but now that is in severe contraction. Many big employers have scaled back, some have closed entirely and moved overseas. The only tech company I know to be hiring is a call center for Apple Ipod support. $10 an hour and all the shit you can eat from tech-clueless yuppies.
Government workers haven't had a raise in three years and furloughs started last year. I get to see the state revenue numbers in real time and they are down substantially even from last year. The state government is betting on the feds bailing them out of budget problems. If that doesn't happen big cuts will affect very basic services like police and fire, road maintenance. State workers will get some combiation of furloughs, pay cuts, layoffs. Oh, and the state has already borrowed billions from the feds just to pay unemployment claims. State wants that debt forgiven. LOL. See a pattern?
The only area that doesn't see to be suffering is the university system which I understand is maintaining staff levels and giving raises. Our tax dollars at work.
Unemployment is still climbing, some counties are 13, 14, 15 percent. It's an absolute depression in those areas.
There is NO PLAN here for anything except asking for federal handouts. There is no job creation except temp/$10 hour jobs. Bailout nation.
In Bali the Aussies seem to be buying real estate again with their $ getting stronger.
To my ZH freethinking and sociopathic brethren I'll say that it all has a more academic quality for me than it used to though, since US~$20 buys me a quality of life here that's better in most ways than most find in the US of A.
You don't need too many adsense clicks to make it...
I'm not being flippant, because I know the cubicle all too well, and too many people I care about are still working shit jobs there.
I'm not smug either because the fact is that I could have started a better life years here or elsewhere in SE Asia years ago!!
Tell me more !!!!!!!!
Cleveland, OH - Things are crap. With the arrival of spring there will be some laborer positions, but they will not pay well. Two friends own landscaping companies, and they said they have people willing to work for 8/hr where they had to pay at least 10-12 two years ago. For every three people I know (mid 20s), only one is working. I don't know one single individual who graduated college and stayed here.
I have seen some barber shops and junk stores open up, but that's about it in the way of new businesses.
The other day I was chatting with an old acquaintance who owns a hydroponics shop. He said his business has increased nearly 300% since last year. I found that rather amusing. You'd think more of these $1,000 homes would be coming off the market haha.
Also, read in the paper a couple weeks back that one of the suburbs is so strapped for cash they are raising speeding fines from $80 to $200.
In essence, FUBAR.
Also from Cleveland, OH -
Out of work for a year and half - not even any office temp work in this whole town to be had. I stay in regular contact with a temporary agency, but I feel a constant impulse to console them. If they don't come up with more clients, they too will join the unemployed. I am a college grad who stayed in this town, but it was not evidently a wise choice. All of my college friends did eventually move out of town.
LOL on the speeding tickets. In my suburb, traffic goes 5 mph over the limit at most - for fear of getting nailed with a ticket. There was such tough enforcement in H2 of 2009 they essentially burned down their captive market in tickets.
Now my question is: what's next?
Re: speeding fines.
Here in QC the provincial police has increase speeding tickets some 300% depending on the speed bracket. For example, before the heavy increase in 2009, i would get a $225 fine for doing 130 in zone of 100. The incremental fee for every extra 10km/h of speed was a flat $100. The other day my buddy got owned with an $860 ticket for doing 160, 60 over. So no more 'flat increases', and as soon as you go 70 over the limit any zone, youre looking at fees in the thousands and automatic car impounding for a week.
Never looked at the increase in fines as a way to make more $ for the state, but that makes sense. This Canadian province has the largest deficit among the rest (~$9B in 2009) which is ironic since it ran a surplus the year before. The local bankers here are idiots - apparently they subscribed to the notion of "subprimes are a win!" That, along with the whole ABCP fiasco, makes everything quite similar when comparing the mess the American mortgage issuers caused.
Im with Davos Sherman on economy, "eye of the hurricane" scenario.
My family owns 5 restaurants. 1 is leased out, the other 4 are owned and operated by us. 3 of them (ABC) are doing fine but have fallen 10-15% topline rev. The newest location in IE has not made profit in 2 yrs and continues to operate at a loss, being subsidized by the other 4 stores.
ABC locations are in great areas. Lower middle class but high population densities. One is near a international airport, the other is near a massive group of refineries, the other near the port of LA. These three stores had a 25% drop at one point but have since rebounded (which i think is due to fed tax returns). Its odd how ABC stores move together revenue wise even though they are many miles apart from each other. They are managed very well so it must be the general economy.
The newest location in IE was opened in 2007 and has been losing money since 2008. I keep telling pops to sell sell sell but he refuses to listen. Its a LOSER of a location and always will be. We own the property outright and no loans. We can lease it, sell it, or simply close it. Im just sick of losing 6k a month over there.
Lastly, there is the 5th location that is being rented out. The lease expires in 7 yrs. He has never missed a payment but from what i hear his business is DOWN hard. I hear the entire renters family is in there day and night to save $$ on payroll. If he goes bellyup we get the store back but we lose that rent $$. We are capital constrained right now as property taxes and home mortgage in addition to LOSER location and forcing us to live very tightly.
Quick question...can anyone validate rumors of bond and equity traders being called into work this morning? I've had two emails floated my way now. If it's about health care, it is a waste of time, IMHO, unless there is a huge move about to hit the Obamanomics crowd...
Iceland volcano ??
I work domestic (Alaska) E&P Oil and Gas. End user demand has not picked up. My CEO cut everyones pay by about 15% last year and then took in a 'record bonus', so in that sense, we reflect the financial sector. BAU corporate theft and fraud. Everyone is scared for their job, but as long as oil prices stay high, some new projects will be coming down the line. Day rates have started to go back up, so it looks like demand is starting to come back. The recession hasn't hit nearly as hard up here, RE has yet to crash.
Oh, I have to share. Pardon the long posting.
First the local environment:
AZ here. I agree with FEDbuster's comments regarding residential real estate -- still headed down. I commute between two homes, one in the extreme northeast Valley area, the other I rent in the Grayhawk area of Scottsdate, and the RE market is surreal. The past year or so homes have been listed at delusional prices, but I've started to see an occasional reality-based listing in the northeast area. As a comparison, just in the past week I've seen virutally identical homes listed for $700K and $390K, with $350K being a realisitic value. I would say 90% of the listings are still at delusional prices.
Things are very strange in the Grayhawk area, which is one of the higher-income zip codes in AZ (and I think in the top 20 or so in the US.) I've seen the sherriff put up a foreclosure notice at 6AM and the soon not-to-be-owner take it down in 15 minutes, and pretend nothing happened. We've talked with other renters who have moved FIVE times in a year, due to having the rental foreclosed out from underneath them -- and this isn't an isolated event, I'd say we've heard this number of relocations from a half-dozen folks now.
But CRE is where it's batshit insane. There are two major office/retail developments near the scottsdale house that were under development -- one on 20 acres, another on 5. The larger development completed, but is unoccupied and gated off with fencing. It was dark for months, then in the past couple the lights were on. There are roughly 100 business retail condo units there. The smaller development was half-finished, some units with glass, others just block open to the environemnt. The roofing was just being put on when work ended, a year later there's still piles of concrete shingles on the tar paper of the place, waiting to be installed. I see stuff like this everywhere I go.
The strip malls keep seeing stores close. I'd say closings have slowed down a lot because there aren't many left. Occupancy is roughly 30-50%, getting worse as you get away from the city core. While a lot of the closures have been boutique-type businesses, I've been seeing some medical/dental office closures.
A few montsh ago I noticed one strip mall was PACKED with cars, so much that overflow parking was on the street, and this was happening twice a month. I investigated and it turns out a small community food bank had started operations there. Scary.
This area has had no homeless to speak of, other than dozens migrant workers who camped in the desert and would wait for work at a local church. They are just gone. We do have a new type of homeless I have noticed, which ultimately I think are described as Oakies -- families with everything they own in the back of a pickup, just passing through town on the way to whereever.
Now onto business:
My brother runs a small engine recycling business. He has been hammered hard by the collapse in metal prices relative to before the financial implosion. His retail side sells parts to rebuilders, and it's actually picked up a bit since the start of the year -- and this business in normally counter-cyclical as people are more apt to repair than replace in a downturn, so I take this as a sign things aren't better. His receivables have been terrible, with his business-to-business customers asking for credit, making $100 payments on $2000 accounts that used to be paid monthly; he's seen more than 50% of his commecial clients go under in the past year. He is operating under 50% of his revenues pre-collapse, and went from four employees to one-half.
My fiancee opened a spa last year, and business has been very slow getting off the ground, but seems to be picking up -- but the clientele is interesting. She located nearby, but outside of the "weathy" zip code, and positioned herself mid-market. Her clients are mostly well-to-do's that are cutting back and shopping down from where they were. She rents in a paid-for strip mall, and the landlord paid $15K for a build-out that's bringing him $800 a month. The guy seemed pretty savy and it was clear not having empty units was more important than immediate income to him.
My own business is in planning for the semiconductor industry, and I have no clients in-state. I took a 40% hit immediately after the collapse in late '08, then by mid-'09 many clients had returned, so now I'm down about 20% from 2007-2008 revenues. I had seen the collapse coming about 2-3 months ahead of time from talking with my clients and industry sources, but I had no idea the hit would come so fast or hard. Right now things are on a roll, with things so strong in the PC industry there are parts shortages. At the same time everyone seems to be waiting for the next shoe to drop, and not a week goes by that I don't get some wierd anecdote about China -- my guess is the next shoe will come from there, most likely that there had been a secret inventory build there as they tried to pretend nothing was wrong.
350k is still way too much. Especially for homes Firefighters won't get on if there is a fire at your house. (see staples holding up roofs)
In the Arizona Republic today (the only paper for Phoenix as of the beginning of this year...East Valley Tribune shuttered) they had a big mention of shadow inventory. They of course said that 50k homes would only impact the price of each home negatively 10 cents per home (5,000) if all 50k homes went onto the market.
Born and 100 percent lived in Scottsdale, Arizona. (south side)
The north side of Scottsdale is still living in a dream or more accurately refusing to face the reality of it. 350k for homes worth half that, that can be a mile+ from any store is insane in this market.
Houses are being turned into rentals.
I've even seen crappy ass meth filled apartments turned into condominiums (a few years ago) with paint and little exterior work, now be taken off the market, and are back now as rentals, probably to the same meth heads.
I've seen houses that used to run (for rent) 1500-1800 now going for 800-1200 in the greater phx area.
Clubs are still fairly packed, but when you have 200k+ college students in the area, it will remain such for quite a bit longer. But imagine how much these places would be 'blowin up', if the economy wasn't crashing.
Phx is different than most areas. We get tourism. We have little manufacturing. We have tons of service. So it's hard to 'notice' alot of what's wrong, when you just can't lose certain things because they presently don't exist in your area. So the first wave was real estate, but there were a lot of cushion built in with 'investment houses'. Also when this area inherently has more money, less damage is done. Meanwhile in Gilbert 20 miles or so southeast you have entire subdivisions basically empty. Although I need to drive around more in N. Scottsdale to see a more in depth look up there. Plus Scottsdale benefits from being in the Center of the valley basically. You got Phx to your west, and tempe/mesa/gilbert/ a million others besides that to the south/southeast. So what you're seeing is people on the outskirts, in East Mesa, Gilbert, Apache Junction, or the extreme west say Buckeye or Anthem or whatnot having the worst of the situation. These were places you needed to drive 10-30 miles to get back into the relative center of Phx. In other words, people are leaving the extreme suburbs, and moving more into the center of the valley....which is South Scottsdale, North Tempe, East Phx.
But it's coming. McDowell Road in Scottsdale still has basically the majority of it's car dealerships shuttered. (including the two newer ones that closed a year ago...even though they were right by the freeway). Of course another one that was there 60 years is gone, plus some of the higher end ones.
If it wasn't for ASU building its research center where the decade empty lot of old Los Arcos mall was sitting wasn't done, you'd basically have from the buttes to the indian reservation (on mcdowell road) just about 40-50 percent of everything closed on that 4 mile stretch.
Tuition is going up at ASU by 20-30 percent this year. Now let's try to understand this. I was in college 10 years. My friend wasn't. He got out early. Now his financial aid, think school years 1996-2003 was roughly 2,000 dollars. For which he could attend ASU, pay for his parking pass, buy his books, and have money LEFT OVER.
I graduated in 2006, whereas my friend I described above, graduated 2003. Now between 2003-2006 that financial aid went from having hundreds extra, to needing about 1000 dollars a semster extra.
NOW, you have 59 dollar parking in 2003, is now 150-200 dollars now. (and it could be 2+ miles from your classes)
The 200 dollar parking structure spots are now 500-600
You are forced to buy ASU health insurance
If you're a freshman they're looking into (forcing) living on campus for the first year.
They also added that you have to buy a meal ticket, whether you use it or not.
Plus tuition/books have gone up about 50-100 percent since 2006.
They just announced between 20-40 percent increases at NAU, UofA, and ASU (which I believe was in mid 20 percent range).
So you could litereally have one brother who got financial aid and graduate in say 2003 who was getting extra hundreds of dollars, to another brother graduating in 2010 or 2011 that is paying roughly 200-400 percent more.
Food prices are going back up. The stores actually discounted things say 1 or 2 dollars/lb but now aren't. Bashas' might be sold to Albertson's (high prices/low quality imo....worst meat section...ever).
Dollar stores are busy. Every fast food place has their dollar menu. You should see Arby's, it's literally a one bite dollar roast beef sandwich. If it was any smaller it would be silver dollar sized.
Lots of people pretending things will get better, but all are obliviosu to how and why that will occur. ALso lots of people don't believe anything and have lost all faith in gov't/business. That's a rift forming. Between the people sticking their heads in the sand to others seeing how crappy things are.
Just like other places, schools are suffering, all day kindergarden looks like to be ending.
Mayo clinic won't accept medicaid patients
Sales tax (actually not sure if just in Phx or statewide...there's talk of both) just went up 1 percent.
They're selling state buildings or plan to, and rent them back (at increased forwards costs).
Finally remember all this has taken place with a 30-40 percent budget deficit. So as you can tell, there's lots more that will be stupidly reduced to balance the fraudulent deficit.
Arizona, my lifelong state will be crushed in the upcoming couple of years. When the budget cuts get real things will get a whole lot worse. But a 40 percent deficit sure is making it easier on us. The thing is, we're a republican state, meaning a 40 percent defiict won't be there for long. So if you're poor, you're about to be screwed here in this state. It's amazing that it's our REPUBLICANS that are raising taxes. YOU ALL KNOW REPUBLICANS RAISING TAXES are like Democrats favoring tax cuts in jobs bills...whoops.
Yet here in AZ our republicans are raising taxes, and still cutting tons of stuff. (but tons of stuff is the vast minority of what will be cut)
The state parks are closing. Like 90 percent of them.
The city inspectors are going crazy dealing with all the mosquito pools, and have gone psycho. Now they're going after any little thing wrong with your property. Oh you have a car no running, well, even though it looks fine, has inflated tires, and looks like you could drive it, if you don't remove it 1400 dollar a day fine. Yes that's 1400 dollars a day. Fascist? You bet'cha. They have so much stuff to do, they are doing a piss poor job at it, and just hitting everyone with the nuclear bomb option.
The only new commerical building done in my area the last couple of years? A chase bank. ROFL
I haven't even been trying to notice things, so I'm sure someone who has could do a much better job.
Oh yeah, and here in AZ, less illegal immigrants.
The day the economy crashed, they ran for the border. You see literally 50 percent less illegal immigrants. They're not walking down the streets, or sitting at the bus stop, or on the corners for day work. 44th and Thomas Wal*Mart still packed though. I guess when I see filiberto's or the thousands of fast food authentic mexican places like it around here closing I'll know we entered a new phase here.
But again, most people are oblivious to what's going on. Just need time.
I have high school friends that bought at the top of the market, and can pay, so they wil. One an option-arm, whoops. The other paid 300k+ for a south scottsdale home. whoops. But it is brick at least, not balsa wood like all the past 20 years homes pretty much are...but 300k still 2x or more too much. He can pay it. How many people are in the same position? tons. Eventually more and more will jump ship.
Scottsdale also is like Beverly Hills, or something like that. It's got the whole 'name' thing working for it. This will be one of the last bastions of higher prices in an area where they are going down. People will justify fantasy prices, because, it's Scottsdale, AZ.
While they are right this is the place to live, it's not where the higher end parts of scottsdale are. (scottsdale is in the shape of 'P'). Basically the handle is what was built pre-1990, the 'D' portion of the 'P' is what was built after 1990). North Scottsdale is the most insanest prices, while also being in the worst location part of scottsdale.
Fountain Hills, is even higher prices. Think community of custom built homes. If you think a Scottsdale home is worth 600k, go to Fountain hills and see one that is surely worth the same price Scottsdale homes offer but are custom, built on bigger lots, hilly lots, and aren't made from crap.
So you have a sort of everyone around be is selling for 1 million syndrome. Or theirs is 1 million, our must be 800k...type things. It's insane. These are crappy homes that won't last much past 40-50 years. Cheap materials, small yards, away from stuff (compared with all other parts of phx), and again, if there is a fire, a fireman won't climb on your roof.
CRE?? What a joke. Office space for miles around. Pick of the litter. But no need to hurry, the pick of the litter will still be there next week, month, year. Huge strip malls with tons of vacancies. Office complexes nearly or entirely empty.
As for business
Currently not working, the jobs ads have gone from literally 40 pages, to four or six. You know front/back, front/back = 4 pages. iF you have any section at all it has to be 4 pages. SO, 4-6 pages ain't much for a 4+ million metro area. (not counting illegals)
Of course most of those jobs are 10 dollars an hour or under. Those that aren't, are healthcare type jobs. Or get rich quick schemes, work at home schemes. Or telemarketing. We're big in telemarketing here. But even they aren't immune. Sometimes the pets section or car section starts to be lumped in. Or the individual contractors part, like for nannies and whatnot.
My mother works for a telemarketer, who does some of its work for a bank mentioned on here a number of times before, but more london-y, basically they've halved or less her hours. So my mother is underemployed. I think she says she's working about 15-20 hours a week, and has to call in everyday to see if there is work. Sometimes she'll start work at 7 am, other times 4pm. Yes, she never knows when she'll have to work, and she gets paid a whopping 9 dollars an hour for the pleasure of having to have your entire schedule up-in-the-air perpetually.
The extra house we have that we've rented, been off the market for 28 months as we remodel it ourselves, new tile, all of that. Well it was 1050 a month for 4 bedrooms (a bargain), now 1050 is nearly high end and will have to compete against 5 year old houses (this is a 50 year old house). Looks like my family lost 28,000 dollars during the remodeling due to lost rent only to get 100-300 dollars less for it than we got before remodelling it, if we rent it before the bottom drops out. But that's one more that hasn't been on the rental market yet.
Oh yes, the economy is fine and dandy. We're just pretending everything is collapsing. All these things aren't related. None of them will get worse. BS.
Even my friend's republican father, who voted for Obama, realizes the crap hit the fan, obama is a toad, and his republicans are even worse and just shakes his head at all the bad stuff, remarking, well I won't be here for long.
Well I will be. I'm not in my 60's. Any of us that also aren't, will be too.
The solution is simple American Credity System to bypass the banks in credit creation. That's why ONLY the LaRouche plan in its full comprehensive approach will save the day. Or at least keep everthing from utterly collapsing, which IS the road we are going down. 100 percent positive. Ladies and gentlemen, we're not in the greatest recession since the great depression, we're not in the great depression II, we're in a BREAKDOWN CRISIS. A breakdown crisis, A WORLDWIDE breakdown crisis, which makes the great depression, look like a picnic. The people running THIS system will either have them and it succeed or we all go down. Well they can't succeed because they're squid, so we're all going down. Unless we change, substantially. That's one change Obama DOESN'T believe in. It's also one the republicans are competely cluesless about.
Also since Phx is well, Phoenix, you should understand it gets hot here. So when it comes to housing, people just don't like to move in 120 degree weather. (really? no s**t). Thus may-october are not that good for people trying to sell or rent a home....even in boom times...there was marked reduction during these months. Expect imo more pain to hit, during that window here in phx during 2010.
Also my half-brother, a guy who used to work for MS/DW at the World Trade Center, has had his house foreclosed. But he was always the dip.
Have to agree with a lot of what you are seeing. I was visiting my folks who live in Phoenix and it's shocking how empty the CRE is. Even the parts of town I would consider nice ,like Scottsdale, you will see 50%ish vacancies.
The budget crisis will be "fun". AZ grew to much to fast and will go down the pipes. The last decade of property speculation and property taxes grew the state gov way to much and now they need to cut. I knew things were out of whack when I was working in the construction biz and realized that's where most of the economic growth came from. You can only build so many offices or houses.
As for ASU Crow is scum. I was on the student council screaming about the student activity fee he wanted and more tuition hikes. I got told flat out "Either you agree to the student fee or we just hike the tuition by the amount of the fee" I still fought that damn fee, and I was about to graduate anyway. And I remember them promising that the 13% hike a few years ago would be it then only 5% raises, saw how long that lasted. And as far as needing more money, they don't. I got involved on the student council because of the insane waste I saw by the administration, it blew my mind. Talk to the profs, the money is not going to them it's going to wacky projects and stupid services. I was tired of paying for it and my folks being taxed for it. But of course the administration doesn't listen to the student council.
Up here in the Prescott area, we still have more gun shops than Starbucks, and the gun shops have had two years of record sales. The poster of Obama as the "Gun Salesman of the Year" is truer than you think. Unemployed are selling guns for whatever they can get, and those with money are buying them up. I was at the Phoenix Cabelas and the gun counter has a take a number and wait system, and it was packed.
Both of our Walmarts have been perpetually out of ammunition for three years. If the SHTF, the amount of lead flying will be unbelievable.
News from Montreal Canada:
I sell real estate, used to be mostly in residential, but now I am mainly in residential and semi commercial revenue properties. Market has never been booming like it is now. I'm closing huge deals, making tons of money. It's a carnival atmosphere for real estate in Montreal. Condo sales are slow, but even that has picked up this month. Things have never been better. Everybody thinks this is heaven on earth... I'm saving up, because I know it cannot last. My office is swelling and my boss just decided to move to a huge new location to keep up.
I also sell bikes (bicycles) as a hobby. Had a sale on Saturday and sold out in less than 5 minutes (seriously). I've never seen anything like it. People running up to me with cash in hand just to buy a bicycle... I was laughing.
Wife works in medical testing (give meds to human guinea pigs and then see what happens). 2009 was slow, but started picking up at the end. Now it is booming like never before. The company is being forced to hire more staff because there is just too much work.
Basically, everybody hear is fat and happy, tons of money to go around (tons of debt too I'm sure). Expect the situation to implode shortly. It's hard to foretell an implosion scenario, but it probably involves China reducing imports or raw material, coupled with a high CDN$. These debt fueled growth spurts cannot last, yet as Canadians, we are repeating the exact same scenario as the USA in 2003-2006.
I'm saving every penny, with no debt. Plan on retiring in a few years an moving to Florida. I'm 28 years old. I'm not waiting for the shit in Canada to crash.
Ontario, Canada. Delusions of everything is going to be alright abundant. Housing real estate 'recovering' after slight slip back to insane levels. Manufacturing struggling but lots of blind optimism. Native (illegal, less than half price - no taxes paid) cigarettes everywhere.
Ive noticed little problems with CRE in the downtown area (then again in downtown its not as obvious as in the burbs...), but venture on the North Shore and you will slowly notice those gargantuan strip malls (Laval area) having for rent signs in the windows.
As for condos, i feel the massive construction in condominium properties all across Mtl has cannibalized the demand for rental properties. My parents have been landlords all their lives and have never had trouble renting them out. Sometimes had to fix the place up, adjust rent, give in to renter demands (paint, etc) but they have 2 apartments out of an 18 apartment complex (North Shore area) which have been vacant since January. Not the normal time to end the lease mind you, but nobody wanting to snatch the place up either since that time.
As my parents are old school, to which many a ZHer here can probably relate, they don't believe in credit cards unless for emergencies (and always pay it off soon as the statement is in the mailbox), are debt-free since the mortgage was paid a few years back, and recognize the importance of having $$ for a rainy day. And the other day, the bank theyve been with for a good 30 years (Desjardins), tells my parents they should essentially take out a mortgage on their house (home) because of this EXCITING NEW INVESTMENT PRODUCT. They insisted this bank advisor their son is in finance and if this was such an exciting product he would have already suggested it to them, and that they dont believe in stocks. The advisor carries on and sits them down, basically spewing a whole load of crap about an annuity which, after fees and inflation, basically gives NEGATIVE returns.
Of course, this is what my parents understood after i looked over what this dipshit was trying to get my parents into. They were so furious they closed all personal and business accounts at the bank and told the manager he should think twice before trying to scam people who, just based on their age, dont look like they understand what advisors are trying to push their throats..
I sell throughout North America- sales down 50% and weak since Fall 2008. Customer credit tight. A little bump early March, but new orders have stopped.
I drove through Eastern Washington (state) and Idaho last week. Small towns disappearing. I noticed lots of cars parked in one town with people crowding around a tractor-trailer truck in a vacant lot. It was a mobile FOODBANK with mainly older folk picking up their boxes- it was heart wrenching.
Of the business people I know, the vast majority (that have not already failed) consist of the standing dead or bleeding with no stopping in sight. There are no more economies of scale in anything, and Lord help you if you have debt that you need to amortize over yesterdays volumes.
This mess we are in, comes from the SOMETHING FOR NOTHING elixir, drank heartily by America for a generation. As a nation we need to roll up our sleeves and instill the WORK ETHIC, not the ASSET BUBBLE ethic. Unfortunately NONE OF OUR POLITICIANS get it.
We are continuing ever faster down the path of a BEGGAR NATION. We spend money we do not have (perversely, now at a faster rate). We reward our PARASITES (in New York and Washington) for financial sleight-of-hand. We reward propaganda rather than truth. And we continue to send lawyers and bankers to Washington.
We have drank the poisoned Kool-Aid that a country can be great by growing a service economy and outsourcing its manufacturing job base.
Short of Revolution or a new Messiah, this continuing of borrowing our way out of a debt problem must necessarily end in in tears.
We are swapping a Subprime loan problem into a SUBPRIME COUNTRY.
Well said, unfortunately.
I have had some trials in a few small towns in Eastern Washington and it is heart wrenching. Main Street strips look like a disaster movie set. Folks told me things were already bad before 2007. Now they are surreal.
Pittsburgh PA,
Family operated Auto Parts warehouse, 90 years old this year. Lucky for us we had a sub contract with a company to service the state the first year of the down turn, but as things got tighter the other company cut us out, not much improvement as wages for most employee's are tied to when things were at a higher level, and they are not young kids, so we are running as thing as possible right now. This region has morphed into a healthcare/ college city, so i fear for everyone when these massivly government funded buisness models implode, as i am sure they will, they just pay to much and i truely believe that too many people go to college for made up degree's. Things have picked up in the past two weeks, the snow did really have an effect during the month of feb, but hopefully all the pot holes it created will break enough struts and chassis parts to last us through the summer. Housing here is iffy, parents sold their house in Oakmont last year after it being on the market for about two years. Even healthcare and colleges have cut back, and hiz honor (Luke Ravensthal) has proposed taxing non profits(UPMC) to fill the cities massivly underfunded pension, they effectivly told him to stick it where the sun don't shine, so now boywonder wants to tax sugar drinks 2cents/oz. We havn't had it to bad here because of health and college, but i fear those days are coming to an end, also people are not fixing their cars because they arent buying new ones. The people who have old car's can't afford to fix them, and the people who have new cars and can afford to fix them don't need to because the newer cars take so many years before they start to break down. Personally i just want the collaspe to happen, so the rebuilding can begin, i love reading this site and others, but lately i have been very depressed by most people for a lack of understanding, and reading nothing but bad news for three years now. Sometimes i want to go back to the matrix........
A corporate defense attorney, this year has been my busiest in the five years in the field. If I didn't read this site and only dealt with others in my field, I would think that the economy isn't great, but it is starting to pick back up. I deal with attorneys nationwide and in my opinion they are absolutely clueless about the true state of the economy. They also show no indication of wanting to learn otherwise.
My 23 yr old daughter landed a paralegal job in Chicago 4 months ago. They just gave her a raise!
What kind of lawyers are they? Bankruptcy attornies. PLENTY of work like that in Chicago apparently.
My observation on lawyers (both dating one and trying to hire several) is that, as a lot, they ARE clueless. One reason why I plan on taking the LSAT in Oct...
Good luck...the legal market is a warzone and spending a fortune to jump into the firing line might not be the possible best move...but good luck to you. And if/when it comes time for scholarship talk try to get them to lock it in regardless of grades. I did that and I'm quite happy about it. Heck most people don't even negotiate scholarships which blows my mind.
I'm not planning on becoming a lawyer, I just want to know enough to be dangerous......
Thx for the scholarship info. Will look into it. Plus, I still have the GI Bill... :)
I’d say there are many that are clueless, but many that are for more clued in than you may think. Having worked for a state court as a P.O., worked for numerous law firms for their computer support for a couple decades and being married to one I’ve seen all types. The main thing you have to realize is they do not see things the way most do – they see the legal ramifications and issues, many of which go against “common sense” understandings. There’s also the reality that the courts don’t work anything like people think, and you only think you hear them talking English (many words we all use have very special meanings in legal speak – nothing like what you may think...).
If you go that way good luck to you, but just a word of warning to be prepared for the reality of practicing to be far different than you ever could imagine...
estate attorney's BIG. made a bundle off of my parent's estate.
1.Greece: For the first time in decades the market all of a sudden halted, mostly because of fear. While the government finances are getting worse, the private sector is trying to shield (or to transfer elsewhere) their wealth. Many people say "it was about time someone did something about the public sector", but not many believe that they will do. The government will most likely go to the IMF or a bailout than to actually reduce the government size.
Even models posing at art schools are employed by the government to "sit for 3-4 hrs" for the students to paint. They receive full salary and benefits.
It started in 1981, when a Harvard guy (Mr. Andreas Papandreou) became the prime minister of Greece with one message: "Allagi" ("Change"!). Massive government programs raised unemployment, EU grants were mostly wasted on consumption, small businesses destroyed by 50% at least, and we do not think that the country will ever produce a good balance sheet again unless it goes through the IMF or bankruptcy first.
2. What I'm observing in the U.S. is a lower work ethic and lower morale in general. Studying such movements in ethics and mentalities is probably more useful to predict the next moves in the economy. A key factor in the US in the past was the Protestant Work Ethic. Europeans were admiring Americans for their work ethic and efficient, low cost government. It's almost non-existent nowadays.
3. I'm also reading about young talents and research, high tech businesses migrating to China, one after the other. This will accelerate the US decline - at a much faster pace than the economists predict, since hard working immigrants were a key factor in the development of the U.S. Many people came here from Europe in the 80s and 90s to enjoy a lot less taxes, more freedom, appreciation for their work. These things do not exist anymore.
With the US becoming more like Europe, there's no reason for talents to migrate to the U.S. anymore.
Overall the U.S. is losing its status as a "preferable choice" for investments, immigrants, hard work, meritocray. There is a strong sentiment in Europe that the U.S. is now favoring Corporatism, and not meritocracy. Europeans now believe that the "American Dream" (meritocracy, ownwership, low taxes, freedom of choice, social mobility) is dead.
Very interesting post. Regarding #2 above: I am afraid this is what a long-term bull market fueled by credit does...it makes money easy to come by for little effort. I've always had a really strong work ethic (it's the irish coal miner roots), and I never got anything handed to me (thank God). It's fascinating...over the years (I am in San Francisco), I have seen so many people get rich overnight for basically being in the right place at the right time (internet companies) or just riding the bull market in VC, financial management, etc...these guys got so used to making outrageous amounts of money for little effort. This is country wide (think of all the idiots that were in the mortgage business or flipping houses)? All of the easiness erodes our discipline and our work ethic and the true effort it takes to make a buck. Now, through a bunch of subsidies at people that were already lazy, and now you double down on the problem. There comes a sense of entitlement (this is not everyone of course...e.g. Deadhead)...but this adds to the erosion. All of these government programs are just delaying the inevitable and making us softer. And now, with globalization, we are competing with people that are much more hungry than us and have a work ethic that completely blows us away (coming from poverty with the ability to actually make what we think is small potatoes is huge motivation). We need to collectively wake up and smell the coffee. Fuck Wall Street...they make the easiest money there is, and always on the backs of people like us. This all needs to change and we need to get back to real work (just too bad that the buck we are working for is worth less and less...thanks Bernake...wipe that Goldman cuz off your lips). Time to hit the reset button...the Great Depression must have really sucked, but I bet you it helped this country in many ways (got rid of debt, shitty companies and gave us some grit).
Hey Poop, I know what you mean. I work for a rolled roofing manufacturer in NH, ( just lucky it is probably too nasty a job for them to make elsewhere) with about 110 employees. Our gross revenue is about 400K per employee, which makes our company very resistant to management moving overseas. Which means job security is pretty good, but being a job that is repetitive you can't get many people with a lot of smarts that want to stay for long. So we end up with 18-30 year olds with turnover. The crazy thing is we start these kids at $12.00 an hour and if you have any drive at all, with certifications on different areas of production you can get up to $16.00 an hour in a couple of years. On top of that they get full health and dental insurance for $20 a week. Good health insurance. HSA with the $3000 deductible fully funded by the company. I know that's not the lottery or anything, but for a 20 year old living at home that's pretty damn good. Now the bad. We can't motivate half these kids to do anything. We've automated the winder so all they have to do is push buttons, palletizers stand the boxes up and stack them on pallets, pretty much just show up and you're in. But noooo. They're late all the time, stay out drinking on work nights and then call in. They have no clue what responsibility is.
Reading all these posts on the college scam pisses me off too. My daughter is going to a pretty good (3rd in NH public schools) high school this fall and taking all college prep courses, I told her to study hard there, I don't know if we'll be able to afford college in 4 years. If she does well she'll probably do better to look for a job right out of high school rather than take on all that college debt and then try to pay that while your starting out. I've seen college graduates having just as hard a time finding jobs as high school drop outs. High expectations are a bitch. Like you said though todays kids don't have any idea of what a real struggle is like. I learned early from my father {an old Canadian Frenchman that worked long hours his whole life in carpentry) nobody gives you anything, you have to earn it. My kids think I'm a hard ass ( and so do their friends) but when TSHTF I hope they'll be better positioned for survival.
As far as real estate, we had a really nice colonial 3 houses over from us 3000 sq ft, 3 1/2 baths, 4 bedrms on a quiet dead end street. The owners were getting divorced so they put the house on the market mid 2008 for $389K. It sat and sat and sat. Fall 2009 after foreclosure and languishing in shadow inventory for about a year a nice young couple bought it for 256K. Good for them, bad for me. I put a 2000 sq ft garage addition on my old house in 2000 and built 90% of it myself. When I sold in 2006 I was able to put 120K down on my new house, just like everyone else trying to live the dream. Oh and every realtor telling you to buy the biggest house you can afford because the value will only go up, yeah, right. I'm just lucky I didn't take the interest only mortgage some schmuck was trying to talk me into. Long story short, did everything right and I'm still very close to going upside down. Another 10-15% and I'll be there. It really doesn't matter though, even if I wanted to sell there are no buyers out there. Two other houses in the neighborhood have been on the market now for two years.
It is really interesting reading about other ZH'ers through their jobs , locations and their observations of the current state of the economy. I'm glad I found this site, I feel like we are the only ones that see what's going on. Now is the time to stock up on the PM's, food, seeds, guns and ammo. My wife thinks I'm nuts. She realizes we are in a recession, but thinks we will come out of it. I just don't see how, especially if we keep pissing off China. Sooner or later they are just going to say FU and sell, sell, sell, to hell with the losses. Then Obama will have something to bitch about, won't he. Sorry for the long ramble, me and my beagle are signing off, I have to take her for a walk before she licks me to death.
So who wants to work long hours for a corporation when year after year it's obvious that 90% of the merit rewards go to the very managers that evaluate merit? Should someone actually design or create a new product that earns great money, motivation should come from loyally observing the gifted supervisory hierarchy above them being well rewarded.
Greetings from (finally again) Sunny California, land of fruits and nuts and Chumbawamba. In fact, when my machinations have run their course they may well change the name of this state to Chumbawambia.
This humble scrap man is seeing the beginnings of a repeat of the Summer of 2008. First of all, business has died off considerably since my new year promotion of free electronics recycling that lasted for a month. Now, we barely get 2-3 people dropping off stuff each day. What this generally means is that people aren't buying new stuff. If they aren't buying new stuff, they aren't getting rid of the old stuff, and therefore we don't get much business. Which is fine, since I have a two month backlog of crap to process. If we start to see an uptick in residential customers bringing in large loads of old consumer electronics crap, we will know that the second wave of the California Egress is happening, since it generally means people are either moving to find work elsewhere or, more likely, being foreclosed upon and dumping all the shit they can do without to lighten the moving load. I figure April will be another good month for us at the rate things are going.
A re-emerging sign of desperate times is the amount of thievery going on in town. People have been coming by and taking random shit from my yard nearly every week now. The last time they came by it looks like a pile of 20" computer monitors may have toppled on them and sent them away with serious injuries (I hope). On the other side of town where I had some equipment stored in a friend's lot (covered), someone came by in broad daylight a couple Fridays ago and just loaded the shit up and took off. My friend (an aged scientist suffering from Parkinsons) will file an insurance claim for that, which will help him immensely as he's not had any work for as far as I can tell a couple years, surviving only on rental income from two rental homes he owns in town. Talking to my local upstream scrapper he says that theft has increased all over town lately. I figured as much and am surprised we aren't being hit harder. Scrap metal prices, while still under their historic highs from the summer of 2008, are nonetheless at prices that make the scavenging of copper pipe and wire from abandoned foreclosures and even inhabited shopping centers (someone stripped the copper piping from the HVAC equipment on the roof of a local shopping center during the last scrap metals peak) by tweakers and other worthless miscreants salivate over the thought of their next fix being firmly in sight. My guess is that the cops did a good job of cleaning up the last wave of scumbags who terrorized our town (and the new law in California requiring stringent ID checks and even finger-printing of anyone wishing to sell scrap certainly helps) but that a new group of losers who are fresh on the streets because their tweak was more important than their rent or a clean appearance are now in the market for any bit of scrap that isn't bolted to the concrete and that they can turn a quick buck on. When these guys get rounded up or move on for lack of opportunities then we'll get perhaps a respite, but if things keep getting worse then I fully expect to be employing my security detachment (Mr. Mossberg) to take care of the issue.
On the consulting side of my business ventures (unrelated to the scrap industry), new business has been trickling in since the Fall of 08 but only that. I get by on existing contracts that could end at a moment's notice. Unfortunately, it wasn't enough last month and I had to forgo the mortgage payment (sorry, Wachovia, my weed comes first, we'll try again this month).
Anecdotally, I don't see much increasing business activity. The highways are clogged on Fridays in good weather, but it used to be like that every day, not just when people were scurrying away to mountain redoubts for a relaxing weekend away from the hell and torture that this so-called modern life offers. The foreclosure down the street is still on the market (for about a year now). The overgrown lawn has been hacked down but the realtor's sign is now completely missing, with just the post remaining, whereas before they were at least making an effort to have SOMETHING up there, but unfortunately cardboard doesn't last long in a wet, windy climate.
Everyone I know is still broke as fuck, but then the friends of a scrapman tend to be fellow comrades in the minimalist lifestyle. Then again, my friend who sells high-tech lab/industrial equipment down the street and drives a Ferrari has only been making money at the cardroom in town these days...turns out he's quite the poker player. Otherwise he's been complaining that he hasn't made jack shit all year, and didn't do all that great last year either. If there's manufacturing going on it's not happening around this place. He liquidated a 20,000sqft warehouse crammed with gear a couple years back and is now squeezed into a 5,000sqft shop, wondering how long he's going to last in that.
Commercial real estate is pretty much dead as far as I can tell. I see the same "For Sale" or "For Lease" signs up and down my street that have been there for in some cases up to 2 years. This scene repeats all throughout my city, and all throughout the greater metropolitan area where I live. The business park that I moved from last summer has replaced maybe 1-2 tennants but has lost at least one more and is losing another who is moving out now. This on top of the 2-3 vacancies they already had. By my reckoning they are at a 25% vacancy rate (out of maybe 16 units) and I know at least 3 of their businesses going forward will be having trouble when the economy doesn't pick up. I still have realtors sending me their e-mail updates for commercial property availability but reading the numbers in the reports they include and comparing it with their optimism it makes ponder the incredible ability of humans to con themselves into believing things will get better just around the corner...
On a brighter front, and has been noted by others, businesses in town that cater to repair and refurbishing are going gangbusters. I needed a new starter motor last year and asked the proprietor how his business was going; his answer was along the lines of "more work than we can handle". I just had my work shoes re-soled, the cobbler said about the same ("Keeping real busy..."). My friend runs an upholstery business and he's doing well when he's not getting stoned and playing his guitar (but boy can he play). And the gun shop always has lots of customers. Are you unemployed but industrious and enterprising readers paying attention here? The new economy needs people with repair skills and hard currency. I need to open that coin & bullion store I keep thinking about. I'd be the only dealer within a 25 mile radius.
In the meantime, in Chumbawambalia, I continue to stock food, bullets, seed, and of course precious metals. My fight with the IRS is going to intensify, and I'm currently battling it out in court with the one credit card company that has opted to sue me over a defaulted $10K credit card. The others are just starting their collection efforts. The court system is a mess. When they aren't trying to scam you for money (I was expected to pay $330 to file an answer to the civil complaint) they are doing what they can to railroad the case load they do have just to get through it. Court hours are shortening and lines outside the door are getting longer. The California DMV has gone from being Planet of the Apes to a Monty Python skit. Old fees went up and new fees joined the fray. Pretty soon you'll have to be a millionaire just to drive a fucking second-hand Geo Sprint in this state. My vehicle registration is currently in an expired state until I complete my smog procedure (think carbon tax but 20 years early; Californians have been suffering this nonsense for decades while you whiners scream at Al Gore) but I don't have the time or money to get it into the shop because I'm too damn busy trying to make money to pay the bills. Trust me, the fight against the carbon tax will have to get bloody if need be. You don't want an extra 20% of expense tacked onto your daily life. Thanks to California's smog laws, we have clean air (yes, thanks) but it costs over $1,000 per year just to register a newish commercial vehicle. Guess where that money goes? To hire more CHP brownshirts to issue more tickets on the highways, because the lines at traffic court just aren't long enough, and government pensioners want their fucking money. But I beging to digress...
I am Chumbawamba.
In the most recent PPI steel scrap prices were up something like 9% m/m or something rediculous. Already, both Steel dynamics and Nucor, premo names, have pre annoucned earnings - not to mention Massey (althought they shrouded it in M&A). The idea that you can cram down 80% price hike in iron ore (/ met coal) or double digits sequentials in scrap into a dearth of demand (cost push) is yet another manifestation of the Wall Street here and the now. Same goes for food/consumer goods companies. Next time Bernanke gets up in front of congress and grandstands about the need for more stimulus, RP ought to let him spew forth for a minute and ask him why (1) oil is at 80+, copper is at 3.40+ and steel scrapp, Alan Greenspan's favorite indicator is no longer relevant?
I did forget to mention that I'm doing quite well with scrap metals. Copper being up has really helped out for day to day expenses. Whereas before I'd get my guys plus an extra hired hand to sit around a huge bin of copper wire and chop at it all day until it was cleaned up, then sell the whole pile for a big cash payout that ultimately went into gold and silver. Nowadays I just cut up a barrel of wire for a few hours, then go cash it in to get a few days of spending money. I treated it like my personal ATM ;)
I'm stockpiling my aluminum until the price goes up a little higher on that, but I may get burned there. I could probably be doing better on my steel but I'm happy to be getting $.05/lbs for it whereas before I was only getting a penny (before the Fall of 08 I was getting near $.15/lbs). I accumulate lots of computer cases, appliance shells, and the occasional fencepost and just have my upstream scrapper come with an empty bin and take away the full one. It ends up getting me a tank of gas and a 12 pack, so I'm happy.
And of course I'm collecting all the precious metals scrap that comes through my door. And being that I'm recovering and refining the lower hanging fruit myself, it's all profit. I have a few guys eager to get at my scrap circuit boards. When I'm done sorting through them I'm going to just put it out for bid and sit back and watch them tear each other apart.
I don't know why exactly the price of commodity metals is up where it is but I'm pretty sure it has a lot to do with this quantitative easing. All that printed money has to go SOMEWHERE, and the smart money is putting it into hard commodities. And as long as that nonsense continues, I'll be making good money. So thanks, you dumb traders.
I am Chumbawamba.
I guess my question then is how a scrap metal collector would be interested in the topics of this blog?
And i mean zero offense, though after retyping and trying to rephrase my original sentence, i have failed. Your posts are excellent and i will continue to digest them.
Strangely enough, my question is, why isn't everyone in the world interested in the topics of this blog.
No doubt.
Ah, but I'm interested in a great many things. You'd be surprised how much intellect is behind the eyes of your (sometimes not so friendly) local scrapman. You should consider that we are in the scrap business for a very good reason: it's easy and you can make a shit ton of money. And trust me, dummies don't last very long in this business. But that's find if people consider me an unsophisticated boob. It makes winning easier as well ;)
I found Zero Hedge because it was one of the few blogs that was producing content that was exposing and explaining what was truly happening in finance (as opposed to your MSM financial buffoonery). I've never been very interested in finance and all my life have stuck to simple investments, but when the SHTF in 2008 I started a re-education and tried to understand this stuff. I still am mostly clueless with a lot of this, but all I'm really interested in is knowing how far the fraud and deceit goes so I know when I have enough bullets. I don't need to understand the mechanics behind it to know that it's doomed and that I still don't want to be a part of any of it. That's why precious metals are so attractive to me. They're easy to understand, fun to collect, and in a secular bull market like we're in now you'd be a fool to ignore them.
Thanks for reading my scribblings.
I am Chumbawamba.
Thanks for the post. I could have read your work for hours. Too bad you can't get paid for it!
I sold off my 51% of shares in a real estate/remodeling/construction business to my partner in 2002 and he's still paying me monthly (fingers crossed here). I maintained my real estate broker's license, but thank goodness that I never relied on income from real estate sales work.
I've branched into dealing in my former "hobbies" of stamp and coin collecting. I have a sales venue and will post more numismatic stock when the selling gets good. Now, it's just buying. I'm swapping positions in the philatelic stock to numismatic stock. I'll take gold/silver for paper any day. Intrinsic value, don't ya know.
I'm just a few months from being able to take social security and I'll go for the low hanging fruit for sure. Can't see waiting years for a few more bucks per month -- the bucks may not be there. A bird in the hand sort of approach.
All in all, one would have to be certifiably insane, or just masochistic, to start a business these days. Been there, done that. No way I'd do that all over again. Vegas would be a better place for betting like that.
My best to you all!
Yeah man I wonder what that jobs bill is going to do? I mean what a $1000 credit? Isn't that laughable? What after a year? Who in their right mind is going to expand business that way? And I laugh because 50% of small businesses fail within 5 years. And I forget how much they say drives job creation? It's almost laughable. Sign your failure notice now. Agreed. Fools will start a small business now.
I do get paid, with great conversation! ;) Zero Hedge comments is some of the best education that money can never buy. You guys are all awesome, and this is certainly one of the best ZH threads ever. This is great stuff! We should all do this quarterly. I'll bet a lot of value can be gleaned from these postings. We all come from varied parts of the country with diverse backgrounds in different fields, so we get a real good cross-section of people posting their observations about the economy. Just terrific!
As far as the SS, definitely take the money and run, as I'm pretty sure you're right that you'll probably get less (or nothing) in a few more years.
Lastly, I do believe one can start a successful and thriving business in this climate. You just have to figure out what people need/want and provide it. You have to be willing to work harder and be smarter than the next guy these days (as always), but it can be done. It helps to have a good business plan, one that takes into account that we are entering into a longterm economic depression. A repair business or anything focused on saving people money over the long term is a winner. A coin/bullion shop right now is an excellent venture as it's still early. If you get established now and make a good reputation for yourself then when hard currency once again rules the day you'll be a revered part of your local community.
The reason I'm relatively unscathed is because I'm diversified. My consulting business (catering to attorneys in a specific high tech field) is in an entirely disparate field from my scrap business, but it has strong threads that run between. I started my consulting practice in 2000, the scrap business in 2003 (when the consulting wasn't doing so well). Once things got going I started to recognize regular cycles: when one was down, the other was usually up. So I was usually able to keep the bills paid. The Fall of 08 changed everything. And then breaking my leg early in 2008 didn't help matters either (which should explain my omnipresence in ZH comments during most of last year when I was sitting on my ass most of the time, trying to heal). Now both businesses are doing OK, and I'm scraping by after having cut expenses down to the bone both at my business and at home last year (to include defaulting on all my credit cards...Debtor's Revolt!) We're looking now to try to cut another 20% to prepare for the next wave of the depression.
In the meantime, every spare penny goes into one of "gold/guns/garden", unless that penny weighs 3.0 grams (i.e. all copper) which goes in the real penny jar; same with nickels now, too (http://coinflation.us).
I am Chumbawamba.
Thanks for the reply. A good discourse is doing wonders for my sanity.
Too many points I'd love to respond to. Chumba's, as well as the other fine posts here, but time marches on. Hogging the bandwidth is annoying as well, so I'll skip the finer points.
I did not mean to say I have a storefront, brick-n-mortar coin/PM store. No way! My sales are all online. Getting robbed is one thing, but I ain't asking for it by putting stuff in a plate glass sales venue! Around here we call a 7-11 convenience store a "Stop-N-Rob". That's not for me.
As for starting a business in this climate, my point is that the laws, regulations, taxes, etc. are just too onerous. And it's not going to get any better with the States and Feds needing revenue. It's a headache that I'd rather avoid. I worked as a sole proprietor since 1976 until 1991 when I incorporated. I'll never do it again. It took a grand for an attorney just to kill the corporate beast with all the State and Federal filings to tell TPTB that the thing was dead. It continued to kick (death throes) for a year and a half as the State hounded me for tax filings.
Never again!
Chumba, what pleasure to know more about you.
I posted well above about how Key Biscayne, FL is doing (not good).
I am now down here in Peru visiting and checking up on the auto parts import business we have here. Our business here is doing just fine (Peru itself is doing just fine). Selling auto parts may be a little similar to what you do as a scrap guy.
Your idea of opening up a coin/bullion shop may be very good. There is really only 1 important bullion dealer in all of Miami/Dade (pop. 2.5 million), so I would check carefully (Monex is there in SoCal, no?).
Yes, upon my return to Obamalandia I will be picking up my 9mm and my AK-47, then off to the bullion shop for more Au.
I hope you are not going to use the 9mm and AK-47 to acquired your Au from the buillion shop! LOL! That's what it sounds like from reading your post. ;)
Whoa, I´ll write more clearly next time!
No, the weapons are to keep my PMs with me!
Can't you score some cheap(?) silver in Peru while you're there?
I am Chumbawamba.
I had a hard time finding silver coin, in mexico. the price was equal to $5 over spot, for a 1 oz coin, and they didn't have many
Thanks, DoChen. BTW, of all ZH monikers, for some reason I like yours the best (and not because you just kissed my ass :)
I once spent a month in Cuzco. What a fantastic place, Peru. I will return again in my lifetime, at least once. I hope they do something about the pollution from all those cars in high altitudes someday. Maybe you guys can start importing emissions reduction subsystems and catalytic converters? Gotta get cozy with a government minister to pass the appropriate laws first, though ;)
I've never been to your part of the Keys but I once spent a week in Key West. Awesome place. I got to hang out at the Mel Fisher museum and check out all the gold. I believe I still have an open invitation to go down there and treasure hunt with the crew...just need to get my diving certs.
I'm in NorCal (SF area), and we have several coin shops around but mostly in the more populous metropolitan areas and none where I live. I have to drive clear across the bay to get to my coin dealer (one of the best in the country). Otherwise the nearest one is about 35 miles north of me, and they are more of a hobby coin shop.
What I have in mind to open is more of a bullion bank: minted coins, rounds, bars, wafers, you name it. I'll also store metal for you and keep it secure (Mr. Mossberg will be sure of that). I'll have safety deposit boxes as well. Basically a bank, except I won't employ FRB fraud and I won't be FDIC insured, because we'll only deal in REAL MONEY. And being that supply will come from both my scrap electronics recycling business plus the two gold mines in historic gold country that I'm now involved with, I'll be poised to be a mother fucking Lord of this valley (yes, the bombast is authentic :)
I am Chumbawamba.
Ah, Northern Chumbawambalia.
The moniker comes from our Korean bearing supplier, we needed a logo and marketing materials from them, so I just copied it and somehow got into that rectangle.
Peru is quite a place, I married a Peruana, and my in-laws are very nice people. In fact, we are gearing up for dinner (Arg. wine and the best steak they can find over there at Wong).
Practically the whole country is interesting. Yes, you should go back.
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Careful of low margins if you are going to be mostly bullion, etc. Re storing in vaults (etc.), a friend of mine in K.B. and I thought about doing something like that. But, I think there may be onerous LAWS (yes, I know Da Chumba SCOFFS at laws) re storing other people´s valuables in vaults, so look into that.
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Maybe we can convince The Tylers That Be (TTTB) to set up a match between you and The Wanker (Master Bates), even though he goes against the gold flow, his arguments are good (but lack a, hmm, view of history). Would be a great match!
Otherwise, carry on.
Enjoy the roast guinea pig. I didn't get up the balls to have any when I was there (and being a vegan at the time I had good reason to pass it up).
As far as laws for being a bullion bank, I'm sure something exists that would attempt to stymie my ambition, but as you so avidly pointed out, regulations and me don't sit well together. If I ever cheat any of my customers they'll know where to find me. The operation will have to naturally be a bit underground to begin with. I'll build clientele and services slowly, responding to the needs of my clients. I'll provide them with what they want and need, and the government doesn't have to be a part of it.
I have no desire to get into a wankfest with anyone. I've laid out my beliefs and prognostications--my cards are on the table, if you will. My bet is in and I'm waiting for the dealer and everyone else to either call or fold. May Lady Luck shine on us all.
I am Chumbawamba.
Ah, Chumbs. Being in your community would be a pleasure. No nonsense, just producing.
I can already envision myself heading the chickens and goats effort, translation for latino business partners, and the area would be clear of looters for 300+ yards.
I have to leave all my high-cap mags behind though. (not!)
Chumba, have you ever owned a Hearse?
You ought to write a book Chumbawumba,
your writing style is very similiar to the one Salinger used in Catcher in the rye
FWIW
Holy crap, are you serious? Ok, thanks. I'm humbled :)
Maybe someday I will.
I am Chumbawamba.
There it is again, 100% Holden Caulfield
I wonder if we have the same coin dealer.
Is he in the land of make believe?
Does he have a picture of himself, in the store window, with Shotgun in hand during Rodney King riots? (east bay had some rioting during rodney king riots)
This is not a cyclical or structural recession. Recessions are followed by growth. This crisis is a structural reset. I had three automobile dealerships employing over 250, 25M in commercial re, 3M in residential re, and a fat retirement plan. I now have one dealership with 10 employees, 4M in commercial re, and 1M in residential re and an anorexic retirement plan. One of my dealerships was unconstitutionally taken from me, and the other was closed as my tarp bank called in my due on demand floor line. My cre investments went bye bye when my other tarp bank wouldnt renew my line even though it was in good standing and cash flowed positive. At least they had the good nature(while I held a gun to their heads) to release me from my pers guaranty. Both banks forced a loss unto themselves totalling in excess of 15M. I now dabble in depressed assets and have returned to my previous career of currency speculation. I will never have the desire to grow a business and employ. I am not alone. I fear and believe that this resetting of our economy (aka govt owned) will prohibit future growth and prosperity.
In Northern Illinois the economy is fragile at best. Banks are still collapsing small businesses and foreclosures are holding down home values. Rent/own is the only stabilizing factor. Underemployment is far worse than the stats show. I have a condo in Chicago that I visited recently and was astonished by the rampant homelessness. Wages are down and consumables are up. If rents depress further(which is likely) home values will fall further. I dont have the detailed stats on underwater owned housing but a thought process based on common sense and local market knowledge, even though on the verge of extinction, will conclude we are very close to a tipping point.
The govt stimulus and fed actions have fought this crisis under the assumption that this is a cyclical recession. It will be too late when they finally come out of the ether and are forced to take even more unconscionable actions.
Imho the markets have priced in a full fledged recovery based on cyclical expectations as well. Of course this cries out, "danger Will Robinson, danger."
Take a look around and form your own opinions. While my perspective is certain to be different from others be assured it comes from where the rubber meets the road and there are far too many potholes to dodge.
The market is a function of liquidity. A huge portion of the $1.25T in MBS purchases goes to the primary dealers that get to offload their crap onto the Fed Balance sheet and invest in all manner of risky assests. They are literally receiving $30-40B per week to trade. That is why the market has been going up pure and simple. Supposedly the spigot closes at the end of the month but there is sill a wall of liquidity still in the pipeline that could last till June. Whenever the flow of liquidity stops the market will collapse but who knows - it may never stop.
Very possibly, absent stringent court action, Obamacare will prohibit future growth and prosperity, except for highly paid federal bureaucrats.
...I will never have the desire to grow a business and employ. I am not alone....
I am with you on this. I was an entrepreneur. As with most entrepreneurs, I had some sucesses and some failures. Once it became clear to me that the wall street gangsters had taken over this country, I stopped being an entrepreneur. There was no longer any point.
It is the entrepreneurs that transformed this country into the strongest country in the world. It is the entrepreneurs who create jobs and create wealth. The entrepreneurs are on strike.
sounds like a website in the making, entrepreneursonstrike.com
Atlas Shrugged. You guys never read it? You just said you're living it.
Read it. Hope the present situation ends more favorably, but wouldn't bet an ounce of Reardon Steel on it.
Just finished reading it. Yes. We are living it now.
The Equalization Act. We are so fucked beyond measure.
Get to The Gulch!
You need to get mad as Hell and armed. Politics sure are'nt working
It's not IF treasury bond holders take a haircut, but WHEN? (and how much)
I am in the Atlanta metro area. There is no switching jobs now or in the last couple years; where I work employees getting zero percent raises (company I worked for had to put a lot into the retirement funds). Years ago (summer 2006) upper income women cut back on spending on discretionary items (salon,massages) from someone I know in the business. Also weddings expenses were cut back, limo services, up-do spending for wedding party. Suburbs are completely overbuilt (townhomes, condos, monster houses), many empty for years. I do not see much new residential construction in the last few years. Hard to sell cheaper condos, homes right now.
Strip malls are very empty, I see many with only 1 or 2 open shops and over 6 available empty.
Seems like everyone I know is on hold, charity events are slower, used car lots closing last year. Talking to kids working at sandwiches shops, they tell me it took six months of applying to get the job. I do not see it getting better or worse.
People I work with are counting on company pension funds. I simply do not get that, there is no way most large corporations will be able to fund them.
Also, the cops are out of control with writing tickets. I recently heard of a $728 ticket for going 80-90 mph on highway. They have a super speeder law here which adds a ton onto tickets. Cops cars are everywhere. When I paid a ticket years ago, I saw the breakdown, a big part of it went to the county clerk retirement fund, another big part went to the sheriff retirement fund. I guess the cops are doing fundraiser, 24x7.
Too true! Same here in Florida, too many cops writing too many tickets. Same with all government employees. It appears that when times were good & the State could collect extra tax, they hired "thugs" to accost the citizens. Now we have an excess of cops, code enforcement & regulation. Any methodology possible to extract more money from more people. We, the people, have over-funded the government.
phoenix has more speed trap traffic cameras, than any city I've ever been in, they even cite you, for seatbelt violations. many are mounted on suv's, and moved around
forgot to mention the traffic tickets and new automated tickets. My office partner, a retired cop who went to law school, does a good number of these. I do them time to time for clients' kids and the like. Tickets have changed dramatically and are being written and negotiated like never before. For the first time ever, cities and counties are staffing all the Washington courtrooms with prosecutors to negotiate some (any) kind of payment. They don't care about your driving record, they just want some kind of cash. At the other end, if you contest these things, a decent attorney used to have a very good chance. That is drying up quickly.
The camera tickets are an insane, unconstitutional money making scheme that has absolutely nothing to do with driving safety for no matter how many you receive, it will never effect your driving record or license. More important, the statutes have been written so that a driver may not challenge the accuracy of the camera system contrary to the evidence rules, the local infraction rules, due process, and just about every other rule. I am currently up on appeal on this and have found one judge to agree with me. There is a federal circuit decision out of chicago (the numer one camera money maker) that has already ruled against the citizen.
The ticket is just the beginning of the pain. Wait for your next few years of increased insurance premiums.
great handle...awesome avatar.
"better...better get me a bucket!"
Live on the east side of Seattle - Microsoft country. Neighbor's house sold one day after it listed. They bought in '99, still above water, but homes here are now at 2005 price levels and slowly sliding dowmward. But developments that had stopped for 2-3 years are starting to build new homes, very slowly.
One friend has been out of work for two years now, as you might expect, he has a bit of a complex about it. Won't work for the census, won't work at Costco, still waiting for that cherry job to come through.
I'm employed at a large multinational, a big change after working for start-ups since '99. Wife is employed at a large company. It's all about preserving capital now.
El Dorado Hills Ca...If it wasn't for the 40,000 some State workers in this area, it would be total chaos. Many homes are under foreclosure and thousands of familys are either squatting in thier home or have recieved notice of defaults. This summer there will be thousands of Alt A and Option Arm resets which will put another wave of people in default and unable to make their payments. Talk of the town is strategic default, or jingle mail, just walk away because the property values have lost about 40% in the past 2 years. Most of the homes here were sold in 05 and 06 leaving a huge number of people underwater. We have vacant strip malls and commercial real estate just sitting around collecting dust. I started a small business in the Auto Industry over a year ago and have been turned down for capital everywhere I turn. Keep in mind I have a credit score of over 800 and have plenty of my own money in the bank. I sold my house at the peak and paid off all my debt. So if someone like me can't get a business loan, I don't see how there will be any growth at all. Businesses are just dropping like flies and the ones hanging on are cash strapped and about to fold. All this talk about green shoots and a jobless recovery is nothing but smoke and mirrors, a bunch of economists having some kind of pipe dream and hoping to hoodwink the general public into going further in debt. All this spackel and tape, paint and wallpaper can't cover the fact that this whole recovery they created is nothing more then a mirage that will soon turn from Palm trees and a crystal clear lake into miles of dry, hot sand and burning feet. We have done absolutely nothing to correct the situation, only made things worse. Since the recession began in Dec 08 because of a " subprime crisis" it has gone from subprime to middleclass to jumbo prime. There is currently 37 % more deliquent mortgages now then when the crisis began. We have a banking system that has become more toxic and a Government that is completely in denial of the the truth. Lets look at the facts... Social security is almost insolvent, medicare will add another 1.2 million baby boomers to their bankrupt system over the next 14 months, Fannie and Freddie are nothing but a drain on taxpayer dollars and will continue to get worse, and the FDIC is operating in the red. We have places like Greece, Dubai and the rest of the PIGGS held up by nothing but a temporary jack that will soon fail as more load is put on them. Commercial Real Estate is just sitting empty all over the place and half finished projects are spotting the landscapes. Unemployment is said to be at 9.7% but the real figure is around 12% and if you add the underemployed and the people that have just given up it is more like 20%. Our government is BANRUPT, revenue is coming it close to 20% short, spending is up nearly 18% which makes for a 38% swing and to make things worse they have allowed the FED to play their ponzi scheme and double the amount of currency in just one year. We have 43 States facing budget crises, and a reirement obligation that can never be met. I wonder over the next couple of years who will buy our debt? NO ONE! The Chinese and other Countries are exiting their positions in the Dollar and the card we once held of being the World currency will soon be played for the last time. This country has a 16.5 Trillion Dollar deficit and a 93 Trillion Dollar obligation if you add in Social Security and Medicare obligations. Within a decade this country will not even take in enough revenue to pay the interest on its debt. Jobs are leaving overseas by the thousands. All these better then expected earnings reports by corporations amount to nothing but downsizing their staffs and outsourcing the jobs to cheaper markets, this is how they have managed higher profits with substantially less sales. Wall St. is a total joke! Nothing but a huge Casino that places its bets on what ever the FED does, they follow Ben Bernanke around and respond to his every move. Wall St. has enjoyed a great sucker's ralley fueled by 5 trillion in liquidity and another 8 trillion in backdoor loans at 0%. This money is evaporating from the system, being skimmed daily as Ben continues to throw dollars on the fire. We have allowed the big banks to control the country. They launder money amoungest themselves and create an image of a rebounding market at the cost of the taxpayers. The banks have gotton larger and more dangerous and their 700 trillion dollar derivitive Casino will be the next to fail. Our government has allowed for a complete take over by these CRONIES. They set a huge fire over on the hillside and while the whole town is over trying to put it out they are busy ransacking our houses. I guess the only way to summarize the current situation is to imagine youself living on a credit card. When one maxes out you get another and keep paying the bills with the new cards. Now imagine the position you have put yourself in if you can't obtain anymore credit? You have kicked the can as far as it could be kicked and now it's payback time. This country has crossed the Rubicon and there is no turning back now. We have made our bed and now it's time to take a big nap. Wall St. has replaced Main St. and the people who built the towns are slowly fading away. It makes me sad to think that the America we were all once so proud of has taken this unsustainable path all because of greed.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBh-m1yTZS0
That must make WFC a conviction buy.
Great post.
and in the end of your story, uncle sugar (through aunt fannie & uncle fred) will end up owning over 50% of the RRE and cousin FED will own over 50% of the CRE in the US (i'm being conversative, yes?).
'all your land now belongs to us!'
don't matter what the paper's worth at that point.
quite brilliant actually. sadistic but brilliant.
Reporting from Pittsburgh, PA. Formerly the Gateway to the West but a 65 year democratic government stranglehold has seen us denuded of that title.
All in all the county, Allegheny, is bankrupt.
The economic climate soft but not too bad relative to some other cities. I noticed in what might be an error on a national map that we were the only county in which RE prices actually went up a smidge in 2009. I don't believe that for a second and have accused the RE company of lying about it.
U/E is about average. Nothing to brag about but seemingly holding steady though I had a dream last week that the employers who have been holding on are about to start letting people go.
Retail: Best Buy had every single salesperson talking to a customer and the parking lot was full. Restaurants at all levels seem to be doing ok. More openings are planned.
If I had not been on this and other boards, and did not pay any attention to the news, I would not know that there is a serious recession/depression/meltdown happening elsewhere.
Obviously, I'm writing about NYC. A summary from my perspective:
Street Level: many small storefronts and large retail/commercial spaces are empty and for lease. Many have been this way for over 12mths. This goes for UES, midtown, East & West village (West Village seems the healthiest of the bunch), and downtown. Every store is having a 50% off ++ sale. Loads of people on the street and in shops still, but many less shopping bags being carried around. Lots of lookers, not as many buyers in my opinion.
Commercial Space: dreadful. You can get A-grade space for 50% less than peak, if you are looking
Residential: landlords and sellers still asking relatively high prices. DON'T BUY IT. You can cram them down in negotiations on rentals and purchases (recently did so myself), and many smack of desperation. We have not hit anywhere near bottom here.
Social: networking events are packed, often with the same people chasing the same deals. Friday's just seem to be dead. No emails, no phone calls, as if people no longer work Fridays.
Morale: not good. Fear running pretty high still in the small finance/small business world.
Homelessness: definitely on the rise, more homeless abound unfortunately.
State of the City: not too bad, but a little grittier than it was a couple of years ago. Less cops on the street, although still pretty heavily policed.
Hope this helps, trying to be as unbiased as possible.
"Homelessness: definitely on the rise, more homeless abound unfortunately."
3 of my friends have mentioned this observation as well without me asking.
"Less cops on the street"
way more meter maids though. oh excuse me, traffic enforcement officers.
on the bright side, a little grit is good. city was getting way way way too stale, like a pack of 2 year old cigs, still mildly toxic but without the dopamine rush.
American living and working in a rich suburb of London, England. Not a business owner or RE tycoon like others on this comment page, just a humble desk-bound employee. I can tell you that there is no recovery here.
Much more so than 12 months ago, almost the only available, decent-paying jobs are government jobs (including government contracting and outsourcing of one sort or another).
Entire half-blocks, even blocks, of low/medium-rise office space stand completely empty all over my town and other outer parts of London. You really have to see it to believe it. Most of these are not new buildings, so you know they were filled at one point. Even office buildings that have some occupancy, like mine, nonetheless have substantial vacancy.
A new, attractive, four-floor office building near my home, completed one year ago, is still completely empty.
Retail establishments are falling one by one. Around 25 storefront businesses located on, or just off, our “high street” (main street) have closed in the last 12 months, and the rate seems to be accelerating, not slowing. Only a few new businesses have taken their place, and one of those itself closed after only a few months.
One of the failed businesses is a dry cleaner. That says a lot.
Parking ticket enforcement seems to be more aggressive. I see entire packs of marauding meter-men now, whereas only ever saw one in my neighborhood until very recently.
Commuter/transit fares have just gone up substantially to pay for I-don’t-know-what.
Just noticed that some of my favorite store-bought snacks have shrunk, or the packaging filled with less food and more air, while the price remains the same. Feels just like the States.
Despite everything, most people here are still eating out, clubbing, gambling, living on credit cards, and spending every penny like there’s no tomorrow. No one saves. The State shall provide, right?
As I said, no recovery here.
There will be no legit recovery until the system is cleared and bad assets are valued at their true value. All that's occured the past year is a full court press by the Federal government to forestall this from happening either by taking those bad assets onto the Fed's or government's balance sheet, forcing changes in accounting rules to prevent realized losses on those assets and a dramatic flooding of the banking system with liquidity and the broader economy with government spending. For $4T-5T we got two quarters of miniscule amounts of GDP growth so that the government could declare the recession is over, and technically it will be, but at what price? What now that the net affect of all those actions has passed? Does the economy suddenly take off when the private sector is not spending, credit is contracting, and the consumer is dead? What would stimulate such growth? N-O-T-H-I-N-G!!! End result is another collapse, followed by additional government intervention, claims of recovery, rinse and repeat.
Eugene, Oregon
We are the sons and daughters of Nike, god of victory. Our University generates most of it's funding from Uncle Phil, and the military. In times of excitment, we raise our hands over our faces, and "Yell-O!" I walked through campus late friday wondering if I would see Thoth Occultists out on the night of the Argonaut; there was once a 40-50 ft "sundial" erected before Knight Library once the Business School was completed; it was taken down promptly. As we move into spring, the rebirth is taking place.
As the West Coast is the eastern main body of land next to China, I am not worried about our long term prospects. East Coast travel and trade will bypass the once "Great Plains" for the most part; maybe fat from liposuction can pay the motrgage....Hollywood will still want that botox! GMO processed foods casuse weirdo happenings to the consumers; the rest of the world knows this. America will recognize this; they must. Mansanto will collapse as a comapany in 5-7 years, or else we will have become the prisoners in Orwell's imagination. "Fertilizers" will be once again organic; polluting the earth may not change the weather, but it changes our DNA. Americans, however complacent, are not all stupid.
Luckily for Eugene, grass does not rape it's top soil, however we have a lot of work to do to regenerate it's organic compounds, and no place is perfect. We grow 3/4 of the world's grass seed, and once that business ceaces due to farms not lawns, we will farm the land. We have some of the richest soil on earth-evident from our wine, and we will harvest our own crops. There will be a shock, no where will there be a place that does not feel the shock of the collapse of the Nation. We will be able to roll into the future.
Eugene has been a city that was built around the University, and only recently expanded from the south of the city. Over the last decade many suburbs arose with McMansions as tall as they were wide, and they took up the whole plot. Californiacation was spreading. The houses lost about the same amount of their worth on average as the rest of the country.
Unemployment is bad here, the first thing college kids say is, "I have to find a job when I graduate" as if life wan't already posing a direct challenge of Darwinistic psycho babble; children, the meek will inherited the earth. I wish they knew "the challenge" was society's, and society failed. In fact, I wish not only did the youngest generations know this, but the others as well, "YOU FAILED!" So now go outside, hold hands, and figure this out. Because it is over. The old way of life is over.
Once people are cold, tired, and hungry enough to stop thinking some magical way of counterfeiting monies is going to keep their benefit over the rest of the world, I think there will be change. The problem is, what will those peole do for work? What is it that we need to do to continue achieving such an illustriuous life?
¿
Well said.
High unemployment. Housing is even, supposedly. People still watch 'Merican Idol. Blah, blah, blah.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avYXL15P6bM&NR=1
"The problem is, what will those peole do for work?"
farm baby farm.
lennon, got a question since you mentioned grass. interested in doing a crazy rooftop experiment and need a good heat-resistant grass. any suggestions? tried irish moss last year and the sun baked it.
One of the things I am most interested in is to see the continued development of what I will call "symbiotic living". A roof made with grass can insulate perfectly, and the space could be used to farm! Houses packed with hay insulate better than standard construction materials, and all this is done cheaply. Once solar voltaic is released in America (Europe relies on it heavily) we will have our roots in the ground.
Friend, I do not know of the grass in which you seek. Good luck on your endeavors. It is people like you whom our society will be relying on to help them make the jump from the complacent past and into the future.
ya mon, developing solid roots make for a very resilient plant, no matter what the external environment throws at it. and no, there need not be a conflict between humans & the rest of nature, even in the urban jungle, even after we extracted so much of her bounty already, even with 6B+ of us here now and counting. we just have to start working with mother earth, instead of raping & exploiting her. she still possesses many secrets.
thanks anyway, your good wishes are worth much more than what can be found easy via an artful scroogle search.
North Florida: office, retail and multi-family housing is dead - tons of vacancy. Probably 75% of previously wealthy individuals/families (i.e. those living in $2mm+ homes) are now having major cash flow problems. Many got heavily invested in both commercial real estate projects and/or community banks. These strategies worked and worked for years, until now they have bankrupted many people who didn't know the meaning of the "personal guarantee". Many of these folks had 5+ country club memberships, 3+ homes and time on private jets - now they are literally living month-to-month. Scary.
My post is from MidSouth flyover country, and from an agricultural perspective. Here farmland never lost value from 2008 to present...actually increasing somewhere around 28%. Farm communities are holding their own, but nothing else seems to be moving. My friends in construction are on extended vacation until this economy settles out.
This issue with farmland values is strange indeed. Some of the demand seems to be a flight to quality by those who still have liquidity. Rental rates are still averaging 3-4% return on investment...not great but beat a CD. Commodity prices are still high based on a historical basis and farmers are doing well all things considered.
Interesting times we live in.
I am a prop trader on the Nymex. No one here is making money. My company has been losing millions the past year. With all the government intervention and manipulation in the markets the only way to make money is to sell vol. and I don't have the stones or the wallet to be short vol in this enviroment. Maybe it's time for something else.
Hugely valuable insight, which should be heeded by all those with market positions. Since the markets started acting bizarrely last July/August, I've not had any significant positions on as I just don't trust the market.
Thanks.
Wish you would expand a bit. Locals aren't playing? Or getting whipsawed? Are the big funds active and successful, or getting whipsawed, too (e.g., Tudor, Bacon, Kovner)? And geez, selling vol is either really gutsy, or really foolish.
I live in a college town in North Central Florida. To say the majority of the population does not have a clue about the economy is an understatement. 45% of the population is in school between the grades of kindergarten and doctoral student. Another 35% of the population is employed by a government agency. 10% of the population is unemployed. The same 10% that was unemployed during the last 4 recessions.
We just had an election for mayor. 14% of the registered voters voted. That is about 7% of the eligible voters. These few voters constantly pass tax increases for libraries and parks. The homeless love this town.
The carpetbaggers of 2006 and 2007 have gone due to a lack of 100% financing; but they will be back. And they will be welcomed back with tax incentives to build things no one needs or wants.
Real estate is slow but alive. We take in a lot of people who have figured out that South East Florida is a crime pit and not a place to retire. A single word to describe residential real estate here is "cheap".
Life is good here because everyone gets their news from television. And you know, if it is on TV, it has to be the truth.
You must be near Gainesville somewhere. I went to school there back in the 70’s. Of course I didn’t give a hoot about the economy or anything else. I was too busy going tubing on the Itchnatucknee!. Enjoy the good times while they last!
I was just there visiting a relative...tuition just went up 15% and will keep going up to reach the "national average". Not as many courses will be offered for the summer program but who gives a shit as long as we have student loans and financial aid
There has been a civil war going on for the past 25 years, but nobody told us.
The civil war was fought between big government/big corporations, and the sheeple.
................
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The sheeple lost.
From now on -until we wake up and change the rules ourselves- the state will cripple you ith taxes, energy costs and utilities charges, and steal your savings and assets.
But as a neighbourly gesture, they will give you handouts.
There are NO green shoots.
You have to pay for the bail-outs.
You have to pay for the bonuses.
You have to pay for the expense accounts.
You have to pay for the $500/hr pretty-boys.
You have to pay for the anesthetised garbage being pumped into your Living Room.
.................
.................
and you have to like it.
not me. i will protest. I will NOT allow myself to be raped repeatedly , nor my children. And if that means going to jail or getting locked up, so beit.
I am not a farm animal. And they (thieves) are pirates.
abbyville kansas ,,here
only taco shop in town closed down,,
fired the dog catcher duties will be taken over by sheriff, who also serves as town mayor,
things are looking up,,, the scrap dealer just hired a welder,,you got it the sheriff... brings the unemployment rate down to 67%
Taco Shop closed down: No diarrhea.
Scrap Dealer hiring a welder: $9.50 a hour.
Sheriff doing dog catcher's work: FREE Dog meat!
Ability to live in the "Land of Ahhs" at 67% UE?
PRICELESS!!!!
So one guy is doing 4 jobs, getting paid for 3, 2 of which are local gov't...
I hope he is paying enough taxes to finance the public payroll...
But obviously he wasn't buying enough tacos.
PRICELESS!
From my perspective here in Arkansas, I live near a small planned retirement community. It was started in the late 60's- early 70's, has lots of 800-1000 sq. ft. weekender cabins and many 1100-1300 sq. ft. senior homes. Some 1800-2500 sq.ft. lake fronts.
For about the last 5 yrs. for something to do that fits the schedule of a hopeless insomniac have been running a news paper route, 2 a.m.-4 a.m. 7/365 days. From my subscription rates of 07' till now..down only about 10%..but retail locations down about 20%.
The most noticeable thing as of late is the real estate signs that show up in the neighborhoods around my morning route. They put them up one day..then shazam 3-4 days later..sold. Most of these are in the $15-$40,000 range. In the following days people start moving into these. Mostly the license plates come from Ohio, Ill, Mich. and Ca. Local realtor says most pay cash in full w/ no lienholder.
West Central Florida here. Unemployment was 12.9% as of Decemober, 2009. It has gone up since then per the St. Petersburg Times. As everyone knows, Florida was ground zero for the real estate bust, along with California. I was a property researcher in a title company for 10 years. The company went out of business over a year ago and I have been working as a part time janitor at the local mall. The difference between $15.00 an hour for 40+ hours a week is a long way from $7.35 an hour for 24 hours a week.
The state has done everything except set up licensed brothels to try and balance it's budget. Some of you may know that Florida got scammed pretty badly in the CDO/hedge fund debacles so, fees and taxes have gone up like crazy. For example, cigarettes have gone from $18 a carton for sub-generics to $40 plus tax. Car registration has gone up $20 a year. In other words, the state is balancing it's budget on our, the taxpayer's backs.
The good news is that there is no stigma associated with any of this since everyone is in the same boat. Even formerly high priced stores and services have reduced their prices significantly. The bad news is that Florida is a notoriosly stingy state when it comes to benefits for the poor: there aren't any.
Florida is fucked. And it's gonna stay fucked for a very long time. It will take at least a decade to deal with all of the excess/forclosed real estate here. The northern mid-west is starting to look pretty good right about now.
Florida is probably a great place to invest in real estate.
Super cheap property, and no state income taxes.
To many in California, it looks very enticing.
9.5% state tax rate vs. zero in Fla.
$350,000 for a 2 bed/2 bath condo in Southern Cal vs. $125,000 in South Fla.