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or isreal throws the first punch so the US cannot be blamed, then we back em, since
with troops from the afghan side. Georgia may have been a probe to see reactions.
what about mexico:cali border. if mexico implodes, will it become a drug cartel
and all the refugees come into Cali?
who paid N Korea to see how the US would react to that missle setup. China, Iran?
another probe imo. with all the guns pointed at one another, someone is gonna blink.
bull markets are much more friendly, argh this bear market, and the bear is just
getting started after very long hibernation.
It is not about the nuclear weapon. It is about the consequence of Israel and western countries lose out the leverage.
Everyone and his dog know Israel has nuclear weapons. The unspoken threat is that Israel holds the ultimate response. Now if Iran masters the technique to become nuclear capable, then the threat of Israel is gone which will force Israel and western countries to the bargaining table with a more reasonable offer.
The nuclear fuel market is controlled by those nuclear states. Once Iran broke the fuel cycle, another new supplier enters the market which will weaken the pricing power of those suppliers. That is the key reason Europe enters into the picture. Why a country without signing anti-nuclear treaty can have nuclear weaopns while a country signing that treaty cannot develop peaceful use of fuel cycle, even that the same fuel cycle is a first step to produce nuclear core.
The know how cannot be destroyed. Israel will make the greatest blunder by attacking Iran. Once Israel attacks Iran, the non-proliferation treaty is gone and Iran and any other countries will race to develop nuclear weapons at all cost.
For better or worse, Israel cannot do this alone. Too many sites, too well protected by too much earth, and no fighter or bomber aircraft Israel has can make the round trip without refueling. And who is going to grant them the overflight, Syria? Turkey?
Any attack in Iran may have serious unintended consequences, such as the potential overthrow of the Pakistan leadership by Islamist hardliners/Taliban types who want Pakistan's already-in-existence nuke (which they will then use). In addition, Shi'ites in the Gulf would definitely take Iran's side. Why is that a problem: Saudi Arabia. Saudi is predominantly Sunni, but the population around Dhahran and the oil fields---including most of the workers, are Shi'ite. Pipelines are easy targets for sabotage, as are GOSP's. Couple this with the certainty that Iran would sink a ULCC or two in the Straits of Hormuz, and GS finally gets some respect for their $200/bbl crude price. In fact, we'd be wishing the price was only $200.
Russia would make critical statements, but privately be delighted that their cash registers started ringing again.
Iran probably does not yet have a useable weapon. They are only now getting somewhat competent with enriching uranium via their high speed centrifuge system. In the meantime, their economy remains in shambles, and the prospect of a dialogue with the US that might lead to some sort of warming of relations with an eye toward eventual investment might be a sufficient carrot to entice the less hardliners to play nice.
I'm not trying to play Neville Chamberlain, but the consequences of an Israeli strike are too dire for the entire planet to not exhaust every other avenue first.
chindit....well composed and thoughtful. I chuckled about the Russian response and agree wholeheartedly that they would be delighted by the increase in their income!
I can only provide a number of the usual guesses, but the necessary refueling of Israeli aircraft is a small obstacle at this point, i.e. it has already been worked out.
Wake up chindit13. Iran said they intend to destroy Israel. You want to see if they're bluffing? Well that may be fine from your front porch in Berkley but the folks in Israel don't quite see it that way.
Careless... wake up buddy don't drink the poison that MSM has been serving up. Listen to Scott Ritter cheif weapons inspector in Iraq who told us there were no WMDs in Iraq.
He's a true patriot and career US marine buddy... he bleeds red white and blue just like you. And unlike George Bush, when the facts changed he changed his mind.
Iran has NO intentions of destroying Israel.
Read this and tell me if I'm wrong. If I am I want to know.
http://www.mohammadmossadegh.com/news/scott-ritter/
I read an interview with the religious supreme leader Khameini (sp?), think it was Newsweek, point being it was relatively mainstream. anyways, he did say that they had no intention of "wiping out israel" and made thepoint that it would be very much against islamic religious tenets.
I'm not sure how much i believe him or anybody else involved in the mideast quagmire for that matter, but he is on record with that statement.
BTW, I don't have a dog in this fight.....frankly, I really don't want to see anybody die unless it is from natural causes.
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I assure you chindit13 is very much awake, and I am nowhere near Berkley (sic). I appreciate that the possibility of Iran possessing a nuclear weapon is of utmost concern to Israeli, but perhaps you can appreciate that a CERTAIN retaliation by Iran that would drive the price of oil to $300 is of considerable concern to the other 6.6 billion humans who are not Israeli.
Never mind the concurrent price rise in everything; of particular concern is the fact that the Earth is capable of supporting only 1.5 billion souls if petroleum based fertilzer is not used, so $300 crude would lead to the starvation of ten of millions of people who would like to continue living just as much as Israel's citizens would.
Given two potential horrible outcomes, one a possibility and the other a certainty, it might be prudent, as I stated previously, to exhaust every other avenue before military action.
Chinny buddy... you are reading my fricken mind!
Great analysis/insight... keep posting my friend.
Just as you observed, in most sunni oil producing states there is a minority shiite population serving as the manual laborers for said fields. Any global event that strikes at the power centers of shiism is bound to be met by riots among oil field workers.
Back in the early 2000s i saved this Friedman op-ed takling about the first parliamentary elections in Bahrain: http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10/27/opinion/there-is-hope.html
The election was notable not just because of the democracy thing, but because this was the first time in recent mideast history there would be elected shiite leaders (pre-iraq). Now in the minds of many Bahrainis their worst fears are being realized. They believe the minority shiite parties are supporting shiite separatists in Yemen. http://www.americanchronicle.com/articles/view/116015
But now that i've dug a bit, I must say that the threat of proxy wars between Saudi-Iran seem to be breaking out more frequently.
Saudi- Iranian War fought in Sa’ada: http://yemenpost.net/Detail123456789.aspx?ID=3&SubID=1202&MainCat=2
Yemen's instability could draw regional players into fray: http://www.csmonitor.com/2009/0827/p99s01-duts.html
I see Russia messing with the middle east, in particular through Iran and Pakistan. I can also see Turkey claiming Kurdistan from both Iraq and Iran. The Turks are the most powerful military in the area and they have no petroleum. There is a mismatch somewhere.
I see the possibility of internal insurrection in Holland as muslims were 15% of the population in 2005 with a growth rate 10x of that of the condom wearing Dutch. I know the Dutch are too wrapped up in cheese to get cheesed off, but things are coming to a head with discussions on heading off an imminent muslim majority.
Armed conflict will occur where we don't expect it. I could see a bizarre alliance of China and Japan forming to seize Siberia.
Sorry mate, you've been misinformed.
1 out of 16 million in Holland are said to be Muslim, whatever that may mean. So, 6% instead of 15%. (I'd say a lot more Dutch can be shared under the Christian camp.)
Lots of angry frustrated Muslim teenagers present (higher birth rate, yes) but the anger has more to do with the 'frustrated teenager' than the 'muslim' part. They'll grow over it. (Football hooligans are an equally big problem; almost all of them natives.)
As for discussions, things are heating up; rightfully so. But problems? I'd say pensions, the highly leveraged import/export economy and the coming Alzheimer peak are the big turds heading for the mechanical cooling assistant.
OK, but that 5% was in 2005. What is the percentage now?
Here is the better figure: Muslim majority in Holland in 2017.
http://centurean2.wordpress.com/2009/07/16/2006-jihad-in-europe-holland-...
Does that make it all better?
It should make any westerner much more comfortable. As I recall, The Hague has a muslim majority today.
In the Netherlands, 1 million out of 16 are Muslim, so that's 6% instead of 15%. Integration into society by immigrants was mostly overlooked for decades which gets problematic in this densely populated country. 2nd generation immigrants (mostly angry teenagers, some of them Muslim) are now causing the most "visible" problems (street violence, school dropouts etc.). But this has nothing to do with being muslim; it has all to do with being an angry teenager. There's an equal amount of trouble being caused by football hooligans (mostly natives).
There's discussion, thankfully so. That's what, besides dikes and cheese, makes The Netherlands.
Just my thoughts though... be interested to hear what others think.
I see Russia, China, Middle East minus Israel, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Venezuela and maybe Argentina try and open up a can of whoop ass on us because we have completely screwed the world up. Not that any of them are worth a crap either. Only governments can kill legally. Recipe for disaster.
The Iranians have accurate medium range ICBMs. The Russian highly accurate Iskander and the Chinese potential carrier killer ICBMs share this tech.
If Israel attacks Iran they have promised to destroy the nuclear complex near Dimona. This could be very bad as it's not that far from population.
So what do you think will happen... how do you see it playing out... because I think that Israel will unilaterally act...
If they do there are so many damn dominoes that how it plays out is irrelevant IMO, the important thing will be that it will play out.
Agreed... you can't predict an outcome with an infinite combination of possibilities...
everyone is focusing on the wrong arab....
syria will be first to fall.....
Minnesota Nice, If the US Miltary saw the government starting to fail, US Forces would immediately enter into Pakistan and seize all Nuclear sites. The Taliban would never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. This would be done to PREVENT India from launching an immediate pre-emptive nuclear strike on Pakistan. More than likely, it would be a joint Indian/US/British incursion to neutralize any threat from the Pakistani Nukes or their Nuke facilities.
-Michael
Problem: you have to know where the nuclear sites are first. Even if someone in Pakistan knows the location of each and every nuke(big if), they will never give us that info.
good point Steak, as most of the nukes are mobile from the information that I am aware of. I forgot the number, but I think there is something like 90-100 pakistani nukes; anybody have better info??
here's a thought/question to ponder....with all the freaking money the Bushies gave to Pakistan (musharaff), do you think we were smart enough to get in return the opportunity to tag these weapons with locators? i know if i was the prez handing out that kind of coin i would have demanded my ops guys have access to tag/monitor that shit.
1. I believe that the odds of the Israelis attacking Iran increase weekly. Netanyahu's actions since election have had all the appearances of shooting a few over the bow. The public opinion polls in Israel consistently show a solid majority in favor of a preemptive strike. I do not think for a New York minute that Iran will back down and most of my info sources seem to suggest that this conclusion is a no brainer. One thing that I have learned is that the Israelis will not be afraid to strike.
2. Pakistan's nukes getting into the hands of the taliban/al qaeda is a genuine possibility in my view. If this happens, Obama will launch whatever strike it takes to stop this.
3. An attack in the US ala 9-11. Seems to me that politicians from both sides of the aisle have consistently said this is much more likely to happen than not. This is one of those rare items wherein I think the politicians are telling the truth.
4. North Korea is simply a wild card, could easily go either way. I would not rule out an Obama preemptive strike on this one either.
5. The Russians.....I have never trusted them and they would be delighted to see bad things happen to the US and would surreptiously help in just about any fashion.
6. longer shots.....Great Britain completely falls apart....
There will be no more 9-11-magnitude attacks on US soil. Say what you want about the Bush administration (I personally despise him and believe he, Cheney and Rumsfeld should be put in jail for crimes against humanity), but I believe they have eradicated the terrorist threat from US soil. This is despite how retarded Homeland Security is, it's more thanks to the FBI and CIA. I don't think it's very hard, just strangle the flow of money to known terrorist organizations, a few cruise missile attacks in the Middle East and Afghanistan, and put a little bit more effort in terms of processing visas, etc.
If there truly were an opportunity for another attack, the terrorists would have done something in the past 8 years. The reason why they haven't is because they don't exist anymore.
but I believe they have eradicated the terrorist threat from US soil
There was never a threat to begin with.
cheek...i'd be curious to hear more of your thought that there was never a threat to begin with...thx.
yo deadhead. I didn't say that in the context of sounding like an Alex Jones reader, but simply from a strategicall point of view. The CIA knew very well back in the 80s that they can not simply go out of Afghanistan and not try to rebuild it. There were several meetings with various congressmen and the topic of reconstruction, and infrastructure upgrade was discussed; but the congress would not commit any funds for that. Furthermore; terrorist attacks were not as frequent globally as they were in the 50's 60's and the 70's in Europe. So probabilistically there was no threat to America in the 90's or even in the 00's. Terrorist act is always an anomaly in a warfare context and is never considered as an open act of war; more like an act with small probabilities of occurrence. In that context the treat was non-existent. I have my doubts about 9/11 and hard disc full of documents, articles and original reports from that day, complimented with numerous books on geo-politics, internal and external affairs etc; but i will not share my view about 9/11 here. Also i don't understand why did 83% of American public DEMAND war against a sovereign nation and 2 yrs after against another one, when there was no threat to American sovereignty; the same sovereignty which was eroded by numerous un-constitutional acts by the US government and deliberately pushed aside for money interests.
thx cheeky, appreciate the clarification (i did not think you are an alex jones type!!)
as opposed to the terrorist attact theme, would you agree that there are al qaeda types/members/sympathizers in the USA that are capable of and willing to cause violence here in the US?
as to the 83% of americans demanding attacks on sovereign nations, that's to me the typical american bloodthirsty revenge "how dare you do that to us" mentality. emotions ran high, herd mentality, you understand the rest.
willing; yes. capable; or even trained enough; no.
Unfortunately this country isn't engineered with the failsafes to handle much of any attack. Truth be told, all that would be required is a small electrical disturbance to have a meaningfull impact on the US. I would personally switch that around. Capable/ trained enough: yes; willing: only to generate a lot of hot air. We have let our membership with the "Home of the Brave" club expire, and now we are just a nation of pompus grandstanding.
DH please take note of the avatar of CB vis a vis AJ type
don't be a douche; i had this avatar looooooooooong before that motherfucker Jones picked it up and made a meme out of it.
My thing about it is that the risk was identified at least as early as the mid-90s. We, as a society, chose to do nothing about it but rather continued to prop up our favorite dictators and fund our proxies to continue out global empire. We didn't ask for it per se, but we also did nothing to stop it when we had the chance and then the tragedy was exploited for political gain and still is being exploited to this day. The MIC loved it because it gave them cover to run a hot war in a couple different localized regions where the media could be totally controlled during any conflict.
60316...cheeky is correct. long time zh readers are aware of this.
I don't necessary disagree with you, but I guess it depends on what you mean by a "threat". The terrorists were on US soil when they attacked us on 9/11 and were around for a while before that.
Now, do I believe that there were ever huge amounts of terrorist cells lying in wait to attack? No, so in this way I agree. I don't believe there was a large network of terrorists cells back then, and I don't believe there is now. Could there be a couple of cells here and there? Of course, but I bet most of them are American terrorists, like Oklahoma bomber, rather than Middle Eastern terrorists.
How quickly they forget. Doesn't anyone remember the dipshits who rented a Uhaul truck and tried to blow out a support pillar on the world trade center? Then in open court the expert witness said that there was no real threat. The only way to knock down the tower in a terrorist situation would be if someone flew a large plane loaded with fuel into it. I guess a couple tons of thermite probably dumped into the spaces of the support beams would help too. That is after all how you weld railroad tracks together. Except it only takes a 1 lb or so to get a good joint.
Remember the Uhaul methodology was particularly en vogue. I was working on something out in garage when I heard a boom and my dog freaked out. That was fed building in Oklahoma City 90 miles away gettng blown up. Hard to say what means what. Just have to remember right. it's all in paying attention.
General Public-Hand to Mouth- In Conversation
in conversation in conversation in conversation
in conversation, your mind is acting now
to take what's coming could make you change your mind
piece of the action, look who's in pieces now
it turns me 'round and around
i'm struggling, i'm waiting, watching for the sidelines
it's obvious i'm chasing, there's got to be an answer
distraction takes over when i'm deep in conversation
i'm looking & learning
that my heart is running faster all the while
when i say i'm sorry, it's not that i'm afraid
guess i'll have to guess again
one day it happens, next day it's all at rest
who made this happen to me?
i'm struggling, i'm waiting, watching for the sidelines
it's obvious i'm chasing, there's got to be an answer
distraction takes over when i'm deep in conversation
i'm looking & learning
that my heart is running faster all the while
in conversation...
in conversation, our minds are acting now
let's ask those questions again
whay am i angry? why am i doing this?
i made this happen to me
i'm struggling, i'm waiting, watching for the sidelines
it's obvious i'm chasing, there's got to be an answer
distraction takes over when i'm deep in conversation
i'm looking & learning
that my heart is running faster all the while
aahh aahh aahh aahh
in conversation in conversation in conversation
yeah but, if someone nuked all the gold mines, then what ???
Dead On Deadhead...
Israel politically, would of course be immediately cut off from regional Islamic producers oil, fuel oil, aviation fuel and associated distilate shipments and it's pretty hard to run a military operation without fuel as Hitler found out.
Until the Straits of Hormuz were reopened prices would skyrocket and global availability would be thrown into chaos...
The Israelis would almost certainly have to purchase large quantities of all the above in advance and store them somewhere mobile to maintain military and economic operations until the Straits could be opened again.
Luckily for them tanker oil storage is at an all time high. Heck Goldman, Citi and JPM amongst others have recently gotten into the game in a HUGE way. Morgan is parking several tankers just off the coast of Malta. A Reuters reporter (I think) was amazed cuz JPM hasn't taken physical delivery in over 5 years.
Could just be the contango play here but my Spidey senses are telling me otherwise... maybe they really believe we are soon to experience major economic growth... what did that Goldman forecast say again?
Smoking Gun?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=auE79A8VeBis
I'm such an idiot... contango would require these guys to long the physical and short the futures contract. These guys are also long the futures and are positioning their clients long too.
Must be expecting one hell of a recovery while the world is (temporarily) awash in supply. Boy are these clowns ever DUMB!
zero...i'm not sure that Israel needs all that much fuel for the operation....it would be more akin to the original Irag and Syrian nuke facilities attack (though much more difficult due to Iran's positioning of their facilities, i.e. underground, hence their pestering of the US for bunker busters). either way, i think they get the fuel easily even via other arab states, many of whom share the conventional view of most of the world that a nuclear Iran upsets the balance thing. many of these arab states were delighted that old bushy took out saddam.
Agreed... the strike will be aerial in nature just like the Iraqi reactor strike. However, there are numerous reactor and centrifuge targets to hit... and these are the ones we know about. Many of these targets are hardened sites dep underground. It may take hundreds of GU-39 bunker busters to take out just one target. This will take a long time. Weeks not days IMHO.
In the meantime the Israeli economy alone will still slurp up @ 600,000 barrels per day unless they plan on shutting it down. With everyone in a mad scramble to secure a supply at any cost it would help if you already had yours floating safely offshore no?
It all comes down to how quickly the U.S.A can secure transportion through the straights. It'll take weeks at a minimum... perhaps months.
While you are correct that the 'governments' of arab nations may privately rejoice... I doubt that their subjects will. They will not overtly assist Israel that I can assure you... lest they desire to be deposed.
Then there is the law of unintended consequences. The first thing that goes wrong is that the adversary rarely cooperates with your plan. Ask Bush and Cheney.
Check out the last sentence
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1221142470441&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
excellent insight zero....i was under the impresssion that a few gu-39s could take out a target. as to the oil floating offshore, is your thought that this oil is not part of a financial bet on contango but more of a strategic military reserve for an impending matter? In other words, is israel paying the jpm's, gs's, etc to hold oil for them?
I honestly don't know deadhead... just something smells fishy and is making my whiskers twitch. Contango is clearly NOT the play here unless their futures positions are SHORT and the economy is too weak to absorb current production capacity... so unless they think things are going to pick up REAL soon...
A black swan event of $200 oil would cripple the GLOBAL economy... regardless of how it gets there. And the icing on the cake is that they are putting our bailout dollars to work to make this happen regardless of what ultimately occurs!
http://www.american-reporter.com/3,761W/55.html
Correction: Israel oil consumption 350,000 bbl/d
al-Sauds will in no way assist Israel, or the US for that matter if Israel strikes Iran. There are two reasons for that; the prevailing current in the House of Saud is the heritage of Faisal and that means that there is ultra-strong current against Israel; and the second one is that they have problems of their own with orthodox Muslim community and the mullahs;plus the coup was tried in the 70's and the 80's; and again in 1993. They even bought half of the houses up in Kensington Road and transferred app. 300 billion into Swiss banks if they were to be de-throned. In 2008 Bandar al-Saud tried to pull and inside coup and since then he is in house arrest in Riyadh. They will not risk the possibility of domestic violence by supplying Israel or the US with oil. Expect for the Saudis to enact an embargo on oil exports WHEN Israel attack Iran.
When IS the operative word Cheeky
Your analysis excludes all the US military bases in there. An embargo will be a declaration of war and they've already lost...unless of course the declaration is preempted with massive ambushes, in which case the outcome is not as clear. If thats the case, the US only has two months worth of strategic reserves to "win".
I met the son of a Saudi banker in NZ a couple years ago who mentioned the "Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) prospective monetary union" any thoughts CB??
Frank; i think that this is not possible; considering all the tensions between various fractions of Islam and non-secular nature of Islamic states ( with the exception of UAE ). But, if they see that their $ are losing value and if a greater political consolidation happens before ( yet again highly unlikely because of the same reasons ) GCC could come into play; but without those conditions; unlikely.
as I remember Condi saying not too long ago..."When written in Chinese the word crisis is composed of two characters. One represents danger, and the other represents opportunity"
Worldwide crisis seems certain... I think the plans are on the back burner.. (Edit: to elaborate somewhat, they all worship the dollar (or money), regardless of stated religion) Thought your non-comments on 9/11 were inline with my thoughts. lol
http://business.maktoob.com/20090000004786/GCC_single_currency_knocked_b...
GCC single currency knocked back 3 years
Jun 06, 2009 at 07:56Plans by Gulf Arab states to launch a single currency could be delayed by three years to 2013, a Saudi newspaper reported on Saturday, quoting an unidentified senior Gulf source.
"It is impossible for the (single) currency to be launched within six months." al-Hayat newspaper quoted the official as saying.
"I expect the new deadline to be 2013," the official said.
Last month, the United Arab Emirates became the second Gulf Arab nation after Oman to abandon the single currency project of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
ZeroHead, Bunker busters can be equipped with nuclear munitions. Why would the Israelis not use nuclear munitions to destroy nuclear facilities...especially the tactical ones that are small but would easily equal the force of hundreds of bunker busters? Moreover, since these facilites would be underground it would help mitigate any fallout! I fully expect nuclear weapons to be used by Israel to demonstrate to the world to not fuck with them and to send a nice warning to the rest of the world not to mess with them or else...
-Michael
Flawed theory. Using nuclear weapons doesn't deter counter reaction. It incites it on larger and larger scales. Everyone is connected through sympathy corded to each other. Whatever forces that kept those flows at bay are breaking down. We are going through 5 rounds of saturn oppose uranus. Each round dissolves groups, each round creates rifts, each round solidfies support. The world is changing in structure rapidly. Tactics that you think may work based on past experiences could literally bring down hailstorms of problem from every crack in every orfice of every part of the world. Sept 15th is round 3 of the 5 rounds. Make your move and destroy your friendships and create your enemies. Being hard will get you cracked.
If the United States does NOT intend to materially assist Israel you may be right... but I really don't think that Israel or the world really wants to go there.
It's one thing for us to invade Iraq in a conventional preemptive attack since we 'believed' that Iraq was preparing to attack us first and we just couldn't wait for the mushroom cloud or biological assault (remember the duct tape and plastic sheets)
It's quite another thing to launch a 'preemptive' nuclear strike however limited.
There is moral hazard in war as well as in banking bailouts... what would stop India or Pakistan from immediately pulling the trigger on each other the next time teempers flare. They both have as good or better reason to fear each... more than Israel has to fear Iran. The country that strikes first has an insurmountable advantage unless you have so many weapons that mutually assured destruction exists.
There are many nations in the area that fear Israels military might... if Israel uses nuclear weapons on Iran there would be a renewed effort to acquire these weapons with oil wealth. Israel is a very small country geographically. I don't think (hope) they want to go there.
The initial Israeli attack will undoubtably bring in the United States anyway who will be more able to finish the job.
http://www.eurotrib.com/files/3/050805_Iran_nuclear_sites.gif
If you french is good you can see the sites are predominantly in populated areas.
That said, the world is full of surprises!
Oh ya mikey... one more thing.
Expect Iran (and possibly Russia) to supply the Afghani/Pakistani Taliban and Iraqi Shia with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weaponry... just as we supplied Osama and the Taliban with Stinger missiles and Tow anti-tank weapons when they were our allies against the Evil Empire. The country is still littered with the carcasses of Russian tank and Hind helicopters. The Russians would be happy to see oil go up... da?
Can you spell clusterfuck?
http://s.wsj.net/media/0410pod04.jpg
I think you nailed it mikey.
Regarding the "Black Swan" events with a potential
to sent the world economy further south - why to
wait till 2010? What about:
a) German combined left (SPD, Party of the Left,
Greens) will win September 27th elections
and/or b) Irish will say NO in repeated Lisbon
treaty referendum (scheduled, I believe, for
October 2nd?
Antonin Rusek
Iran/Israel - but that will be before 2010 (so I am off topic). Israel, for its own self preservation, cannot permit a nuclear Iran. Whether you are pro-Israel, anti or indifferent they will do what they have to do with or without the blessing of Washington. I would have to think that the Obama administration is pro-Israel, notwithstanding superficial evidence that would say otherwise e.g. perhaps it is an elaborate game of good cop, bad cop.
Ezekial 38 is pending sometime in the future where Gog and Magog (Russia) come down and attack Israel, however, Israel will be living in peace at the time. Since Israel is not currently at peace there will be some war prior to the one they will have with Russia ... i.e. with Iran.
Actually for those with a biblical bent... check out Khazaria. It was the largest 'country' on the globe in the 9th and 10th centuries and occupied the lands described as Gog and Magog... and Jewish (conversion) to boot. Many think that the Khazars became the Ashkanazis... dna tests are suggestive of this. So if they are attacking Israel you need not worry... they are merely returning home!
oh God !!!!!! no religion PLEASE.
Hahahahah for the love of God..
Sorry guys... being a godless athiest and all I forgot. No cats allowed in church!
For the love of Dog, no invisible friend idiocy please, the adults are talking now.
Little wars/rioting all over the USA, breaking out like acne. Some areas see nothing, others one event, others unstable any day of the week.
Short story. I went to a teaparty. Really useless bunch of "write your congressman" and speakers who are too far inside the box to see reality. For fun, I took a pitchfork and carried it with me. Here and there I heckeled the speakers with cute phrases like, "Your congress people don't care" and "They voted for the bailout the last time you called and said no." Adorable stuff like that.
Guess what. Older folks looked on quite disapproving of the woman with a pitchfork. Some laughed, I was a circus side show. But let me tell you what else. I had young men, teens, early 20's, tatooed, peircedup, haircolored, militia themed, goth themed, V for Vendetta themed, lots of them, telling me my pitchfork was "awesome," or "much more fucking like it" or "wish I had one." I also heard that I "rocked."
I thought about it alot as I was walking home the mile I walked to get to the park (funny, I felt really safe, bum dudes gave me big clearance). These kids are ready to fight, something, anything. I don't know that they know crap about what is going on in the economy or why things are so screwed in Washington. I honestly think they would just like to fight.
Black Swan singing in the dead of night...
I concur. I personally know many people who are stocking up on guns and ammo - not just young ones, either. They probably won't be the ones to start anything, but they will certainly be ready and willing to keep it going or at least defend their property to the death. In addition, I know a number of highly intelligent very young people (early teens) who are very aware of and absolutely incensed by the burden placed on them to repay all of this bailout money, etc. They want a voice and they want congress to listen. These young people will not go down without a fight. It may very well be 5 - 10 years off, but it's coming.
Believe me, I'm not a conspiracy theorist or a doomsdayer. Until a couple of years ago I was uninterested in politics and even intentionally oblivious to all of that Washington nonsense. I was (and to some extent still am) more interested in raising my children and enjoying a quiet average American life. I witness this gearing up and simmering sense of anger with great anxiety. I have two children who are young adults as well as a pre schooler (oops). I hate to think about what their lives will be like when they are my age (early 40s). So sad to see what has happened to this lovely country and people just in my lifetime. I remember 1976 so well and it just brings tears to my eyes when I hear this odd self-loathing that has spread through the population. Anyway, now I'm rambling. But I agree with you MsCreant.
"All your life you were only waiting for this moment to arise."
March on Wash DC next Saturday (9/12) Lincoln Memorial -- Be there -- Get the word out. I am flying in for the day just to show up. Just really tired of what is going on.
Blackswan singing in the dead of night
Take these broken wings and learn to fly
All your life
You were only waiting for this moment to arrive
Black swan singing in the dead of night
Take these sunken eyes and learn to see
all your life
you were only waiting for this moment to be free
Blackswan fly, Blackswan fly
Into the light of the dark black night.
Blackswan fly, Blackswan fly
Into the light of the dark black night.
Blackswan singing in the dead of night
Take these broken wings and learn to fly
All your life
You were only waiting for this moment to arrive,
You were only waiting for this moment to arise,
You were only waiting for this moment to arise
(John and Paul, thanks for the loan). <3
You rock. ;-)
:-D
I think you summed up the human reality pretty well.
Older folks have their dreams, but so long as things are moderately comfy, they will work within the system.
Young people are full of the dangerous mix of ideals and hormones, and always are the grist for the mill of violent acts. Take any revolt at any time in history, whether it is the current Islamist extremist jihad, the Lebanon civil war, etc. It is usually fueled by young men bored with the reality of what life actually offers them (factory work, dead end jobs, etc.) as opposed to what they had hoped. Revolt is simply more fun than work.
The chance to act violently is the first draw; the "cause" comes much later.
That's why we are in trouble in the US. Those teens/young men are not going to find ANY work, even menial stuff. It will be quite easy to entice them in hordes into the ranks of the revolutionistas.
My Chicken Shit Representative has held three Town Hall meetings, all by telephone! To participate you had to register giving your name, address, phone, number, and email address.
Any cock-sucker from government who needs to hide behind a fucking telephone for a "Town Hall" meeting is nothing more than a useless waste of resources.
Hello David Price, are you there?
Oh yes NSA, since my Representative does not respond to my messages, please forward this to Rep. David Price, D NC.
Thank you,
Bubby
He sounds like a weasel. Save your cell phone minutes.
Your young friends may not remember what happened to Timothy McVeigh.
MsCreant: These kids are ready to fight, something, anything. I don't know that they know crap about what is going on in the economy or why things are so screwed in Washington. I honestly think they would just like to fight.
-----------
Lots of guys in their teens and 20's like to fight. And if unemployment keeps going up for them, it won't take much to spark riots. Like Flava Flav said of the LA riots, once the riot started it went like a forest fire, it started at a lot of places in about the same time.
Get someone like Father Coughlin in the 1930's on the air. Wild stuff could happen.
Jesus Ms Creant! Somehow i missed your post earlier...WOW
After reading your short story, who could ever want to attend a teaparty WITHOUT a pitchfork!!!
And, the way you planned your heckling questions was brilliant! Would you consider getting a working list of heckling questions together to share with all of us and if you had the chance to think about your list for a while, til it jelled as almost perfect, maybe this is the thing that can turn into a twitter/facebook type post asking others, if they agree, to post faithfully, until your "heckling questions" were everywhere and not going away!!!
A unified list as a mantra would be very powerful....and seriously, i think you have a huge key here!!!
Agreed. Went to local event recently and the first 30 minutes were spent swearing various oaths, saluting, and pledging varying degrees of allegiance to the all powerful state. I expected much more of a "fight the power" type attitude. It was very watered down, controlled, and conformist. This country needs a little taste of chaos a la walstreetpro2.
I agree that young people are generally more rebellious but there are also a few factors that stretch beyond the excess hormones issue.
1) The influx of university students into social sciences is huge and I am pretty sure historically significant. Learning how our social structure is set up, particularly the big lies it is based on can turn many a college student against the government. When the equations stated in a macroeconomics textbook such as inflation = expected inflation and interest rates move with unemployment are proven wrong by the real world, students look for alternative explanaitions of concepts they thought they understood so well. Usually for economics it is the Austrian school of thought that replaces Keynes. As Keynes is proven more and more wrong the distrust will mount.
2) Young people know that the rising uncertainty and colatility in "the economy" in the past has often led to war. The can see the previous generation has enjoyed the fruits of the golden age of America and they accumulated enourmous amounts of debt for them in order to do so and are accumulating exponentially more debt just to keep it all from falling apart. Soon they might even have to sacrifice lives in war to keep it in place and yound people know that they will be the fodder for such a conflict. It is a recipe for disdain and distrust that might materialize itself in your prediction.
Mmmm... what about that Arctic Circle division... that looks interesting and somewhat high stakes...
I place better than even odds that Israel and Iran will come to blows, possibly through Iran's Hezbollah proxies.
Excellent topic CB, one I'd be game on contributing to, especially after reading some Stratford pieces. But, alas, it's Saturday night, and after a few Corona's (no lime, knives are for oj) all I can muster up in my volitility numbed brain is New York vs. Boston. But seeing as how Boston is eight and a half back, or to say the glass is half full, the Yanks are eight and a half up, .....
CB,
Where to start?
China has already used the Somali "pirate" issue as an excuse to move naval assets into the IO, from where their ships can monitor air traffic over the Persian Gulf. The U.S. and China have a long running and completely unpublicized shoving match going on in the South China Sea, and it seems to revolve around American ASW presence. The Chinese to my knowledge don't have a large and advanced ASW capability, so I look to their allying with Russia to provide it. At some point they must shove the U.S. Navy out of the Pacific (ask the Japanese). Submarines being weapons of denial, and China being a mercantilist nation, the situation is clear.
China will make deals for Russian oil and natty and will fund pipeline construction. Russia's job will be augmenting Chinese ASW, dominating the Caspian / Caucasus and the Black Sea, selling arms to ME soon-to-be-client states, and keeping an energy and military choke hold on the EU. Turkey is a wild card (access to the Med). Once the back of the U.S. economy is broken, the army must leave the ME and fundamentalism reigns. The days of the House of Saud are numbered. The American move into Pakistan is unsustainable. IMO we are already overextended. When the dam breaks we will either have to admit failure or start knocking countries down in a big way.
Israel might find itself on its own when this happens.
Knowing all of this is the reason I have often stated that what is really going on right now is a global game of "last man standing". The U.S. hopes China cracks first.
SW; nothing to add, all bases are covered in your post; backed by facts. I completely agree with you and see things from the almost exact perspective. +100
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/6132379/US-and-Aust...
US and Australia invite China to war games The US and Australia will invite China to take part in joint naval and military exercises in a move that highlights the changing balance of power in the Pacific.By Bonnie Malkin in Sydney and Malcolm Moore in Shanghai
Published: 2:20PM BST 03 Sep 2009
Admiral Timothy Keating, the head of the US Pacific Command, said the US and Australia had agreed to make the approach to the Chinese Ministry of Defence.
"We are anxious to engage with them at the earliest opportunity," he told the Sydney Morning Herald. "We want to understand much better than we do now China's intentions. We would say: 'Don't stand in isolation in the Pacific'. China does publish a [defence] white paper but we find it to be less than fulfilling," he said.
MUAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!
Ha ha ha ha ha... 'engage at earliest opportunity...' ha ha ha ... that's rich... what an ass!
Wait... let me guess... we'll be the cowboys and they can be the indians. That way we can see how good this made in China crap really is! Ha ha ha...
pew pew pew
How about a indo-china border dispute escalating into a war with US taking sides India and Pakistan aligining with China. And that war becoming a proxy war between US & China
Nostradamus has predicted that the big war will start around that geographical area-Not that it is very hard to find a Nostradamus prophesy to fit any wild theory.
well, let's see what they cook up for us in the not too distant future. 9-9-09 is wednesday, so let's see if they can get something going in afganistan...
the web-bot project suggests that there might be a bombing of Iran near or around the 25th of oct. and also most recently cliff high suggests that the predictive linguistics are seeing a potential attempt on B.Obama's life in the first 2 months of 2010. Things could get a little crazy when this market starts it's next leg down, and the powers that be will need something to take people's attention away from the collapsing market.
Short answer yes. Article. http://www.tnr.com/blog/the-spine/beware-do-not-read-if-all-you-want-intellectual-fix-one-your-political-prejudices-ser
Given your readings this is not new information but since we know the office is on the job training we shall see what is inside the suit. The current affair we are in is essential. The last yellow cake was shipped to Canada. How fast the centrifuges are spinning is above out pay grade. I have family in the "groundhog day" The only geohot on the map IMO was resolved in chile massacre a few month back.
Idiotic neoconservative/jewish lobby propaganda.
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=The_New_Republic
I don't see it happening in 2010. I have a feeling global conflict that year will progress like a pressure cooker. No major disturbances because everyone will be setting up for the BIG ONE. There is a global arms race afoot but no one yet has a clear advantage.
I wish I could offer more than intuition, but clearly every major army is getting on the digitization bandwagon. I see the period we are in now much like the armament period before WWI where there were tons of bellicose statements and fancy new weapons. What worries me most is how many of these weapons systems can be sold as impossible to counter, giving an erstwhile rational leader balls of steel and brains of jello.
Georgia got a "free-pass" from Russia, imho. The next time will incur complete political/military annihilation. No threat in Russia's back yard.
Shia influence in the Middle East would galvanize the major players - Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon & SAUDI ARABIA. Israel influence & support would evaporate overnight with a premeditated attack. And oil prices? Good luck with that play.
I see more continued interference/subversion by Uncle Sham at all ends of the Empire. Good luck with that play!
The only "real" war will continue between the haves & the have-nots.
Israel and Pakistan look like the two possible flash points for 2010. Pakistan/Afghanistan border becoming increasingly unstable with growing popular support of the insurgents in both countries. Plans for increasing US military and DOS operations in Pakistan will just fuel local paranoia and increase support for anti-government forces. Pakistani nukes are a loose cannon. Israel increasingly insecure as Iran develops long range missiles and potential nukes while pushing short range missile to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Dimona now in range....may have to use 'em or lose 'em.
What we see happening now is the role the Chinese are taking in US natural resources, in particular oil and natural gas through Noble Americas.
The method seems to be bankrupt or nearly bankrupt private operations to stay off the public company radar screen. This gets all the more interesting since the US has stopped deep offshore exploration in most states, while Brazil has found massive amounts of oil and gas under the salt layer, with the salt layer 35,000 feet below the ocean floor. And China is taking an active role in Brazilian exploration.
http://www.thisisnoble.com/images/documents/assetbook2009d.pdf
By the way, US oil and gas assets are not on their maps.
Which would you rather own? A Colorado oil and gas field or a Treasury Bond? We are witnessing the sale of the US real assets to pay for government and private profligacy. We are becoming the gambler being tossed out in the street wearing a barrel.
Just a hunch, but I've been expecting the second dip after we get past Labor Day and the 9/11 anniversary date. We Americans don't like to face reality during the summer time and 9/11 is too solemn to deal with anything else. After that? Look out below.
Again, I 'aint nobody - this is just what I've been expecting for a few months...
I say WTC I,II,VII on 911
'08 MegaCrash on 912
and '09 bankholiday on 913
Just a numbers thing for me.
You should address this issue of 2nd dip to Mr. Obama, who know something. He will not attend the 9/11 memorial in NYC.
He also said in last March that it is good time to buy stocks.
Since it's Labor day weekend I'd like to take the opportunity to remind people what it is about. Although it is known to most as the "End of Summer", it is important to understand how far we have come in some aspects:
Labor Day is a United States federal holiday observed on the first Monday in September (September 7 in 2009).
The holiday originated in Canada out of labor disputes ("Nine-Hour Movement") first in Hamilton, then in Toronto, Canada in the 1870s, which resulted in a Trade Union Act which legalized and protected union activity in 1872 in Canada. The parades held in support of the Nine-Hour Movement and the printers' strike led to an annual celebration in Canada. In 1882, American labor leader Peter J. McGuire witnessed one of these labor festivals in Toronto. Inspired from Canadian events in Toronto, he returned the USA, to New York and organized the first American "labor day" on September 5 of the same year.
The first Labor Day in the United States was celebrated on September 5, 1882 in New York City.[1] In the aftermath of the deaths of a number of workers at the hands of the US military and US Marshals during the 1894 Pullman Strike, President Grover Cleveland put reconciliation with Labor as a top political priority. Fearing further conflict, legislation making Labor Day a national holiday was rushed through Congress unanimously and signed into law a mere six days after the end of the strike.[2] Cleveland was also concerned that aligning a US labor holiday with existing international May Day celebrations would stir up negative emotions linked to the Haymarket Affair.[3] All 50 U.S. states have made Labor Day a state holiday."
Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Labor_Day
The Nine Hour Movement:
"The Nine-Hour Movement was an international workers' attempt to secure shorter working days; in Canada, January-June 1872. Beginning in Hamilton, the demand for the 9-hour day (some workers were expected to labour as long as 12 hours) spread quickly to Toronto and Montréal, gathering support in Ontario towns from Sarnia to Perth. Echoes were heard as far east as Halifax. For the first time Canadian labour organized a unified protest movement, developed tactics of resistance, and cultivated articulate working-class leaders. Nine-Hour leagues united union and non-union workers, and in May labour representatives formed the Canadian Labor Protective and Mutual Improvement Association."
Source: http://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.com/index.cfm?PgNm=TCE&Params=A1ARTA0...
It should be noted that it was a 6 day work week: 6x12 = 72 hour work week. Keep in mind that back then travel was not anywhere near as fast and easy as today so aside from sleeping, eating, and working there was basically one day of the week for "family time". I know a lot of people in financial circles have a low opinion of unions, and I will concede they have in many ways been corrupted much as the financial system has been. However, they were the beginnings of workers being treated as human beings rather than serfs. Happy long weekend everyone.
And here I thought it was to give deference to all the women who have given birth. You learn something new every day. I love ZH.
LOL! My stomach is hurting.
Thanks for sharing this; the labor union movement IMO was a rational and necessary reaction to the treatment of the common worker during the industrial revolution. The unions accomplished things for the average man that could not have been achieved otherwise. It is important to remember, while we bemoan the loss of manufacturing here in the U.S., that unions and industrialization go hand-in-hand. It is a pendulum, and like all pendulums it has swung too far, as unions achieved mostly rational and tolerable working conditions, then went on to try to continue to justify their existence with irrational demands.
The pendulum will swing back, too far, and unions will be reborn.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludlow_massacre
Yes, at some point the unions morphed into corporations, and I think you're right about the pendulum swinging way back. Hopefully it won't get to the Grapes of Wrath type situation, but time will tell. I just thought it worth mentioning since some of the financial sites (Mish's especially) are constantly hammering on unions. Unions demanded a balance between "capital efficiency" and human rights. They were born out of the shear necessity to live, at a time when life was worth nothing to employers. Thanks for sharing the Ludlow link... 11 children killed...
Here's something that has me real scared:
http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/2009/09/china-and-buzz-of-pending...
CHINA AND THE BUZZ OF A PENDING BANK DEFAULTLet’s put the pieces together here. Just this past weekend China announced that State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) will be allowed to default on commodity derivative contracts. Think of that. China has given the green light and authorized the defaulting on commodity derivative contracts.
This story broke over the weekend but has not gotten much mainstream media attention on this side of the pond. (North America). The only inference to it was the talk or “buzz” on the Wall Street floor that another bank was rumored to be close to defaulting. As Art Cashin of UBS Securities indicated in the video clip I posted earlier, normally when a market sells off on a rumor and the rumor turns out to be false, the market will tend to correct itself. IT DIDN’T.
The Reuters report cited 6 foreign banks that received letters indicating that the Chinese State Owned Enterprises would be given the green light to default on their derivatives.
A look at what a derivative actually is may be useful here. A Derivative is a financial instrument that is derived from some other underlying asset, index, event, value or condition. Rather than trade or exchange the underlying itself, derivative traders enter into an agreement to exchange cash or assets over time based on the underlying. A simple example is a futures contract: an agreement to exchange the underlying asset at a future date. Commercial and investment banks make up the foundation of the over the counter (OTC) derivatives market. Investors use derivatives to protect against risks, such as sudden changes in price or value of the underlying asset. Others tap derivatives to take on extra risk, in the hope of extra gains.
Well China owns billions of these products and it has finally come to light they have had enough of having the value of their derivatives manipulated by the manipulation of the price of the underlying asset. They have finally woken up to the fact that these derivatives have been bundled together like junk in a manner that resembles the mortgage backed derivatives that brought down the world markets last year.
Back to Reuters. Some of the State Owned Enterprises that stated their potential intentions to default were Air China. China Eastern and Cosco. Mainly in part because they took major derivatives losses over the past year but also, concerns are arising that the derivatives that they were sold by these foreign institutions are garbage, underwater and may never see the light of day. So why continue to pay for them? So the concern in the financial world is that holders of these losing products may just walk away, not unlike a home owner with a $600,000 mortgage on a home valued at $475,000 deciding to just hand in their keys. However, read on...this has nothing to do with morgtgage backed products. This time, the concern may be over Oil.
They (Reuters) cited 6 foreign banks.Where the story gets really intriguing is that among the major derivatives providers according to Reuters but also widely known in the industry, are Goldman Sachs, UBS and JP Morgan.
Here is the looming problem. These products are worth billions. One report that a good friend of mine did showed that if Goldman Sachs for example were to take this one up the rear, they could stand to lose 15 billion dollars. (This number is by no means confirmed)
An important history lesson is needed here. “Potential default” was the concern that sparked and prompted the most recent economic crisis. These intricately weaved products along with highly speculative CDOs and CDSs began to fall apart when the bubble that was in large part significantly contributed to and created by the financial institutions that were packaging this junk started to fall apart.
Imagine the impact for a brief moment if you will, on the impact to the financial landscape if China were to say “we are walking away” from those products. I would imagine that China, being the biggest purchaser of US debt, could surely collapse the US institutions that were at one point deemed too big to fail if they decide to go ahead with this plan.
This is why I don’t take tonight’s news that China purchased 50 billion dollars of IMF bonds lightly. In fact, I take it very seriously. This is why I take the buzz on the floor over the past two days very seriously as well as I do the incredible spike in Gold today. Most importantly, I do not take lightly the recent 25% correction we have seen in the Chinese Stock Market. Can all these events be interconnected some how? Is the Chinese stock collapse giving us a hint?
The Reuters story came out on Mon Aug 31, 2009 at 7:42am EDT. I find it quite interesting that the mainstream media did not take this more seriously. Reuters reported that the above noted Chinese companies have already issued letters to the banks. The Reuters article cites 4 clear points.
• State-owned firms may default on commodity hedges - report
• Bankers dismayed, confused by report; seek more details
• Lawyers question legality of the move
• Traders suspect lurking losses may have prompted warning (Adds analysts comments)
Analysts are fearing that if these three big companies came out and spelled out their losses and dismay at these products then this might prompt other large Chinese corporations to do the same.
Let’s take a closer look at the companies that have been mentioned in these news articles out of China. They are Air China, China Eastern and Cosco. If you ask me, this conundrum might have to do with oil. I deduce from this that if there is a problem brewing it has everything to do with their Oil Derivatives business.
Here’s a brief overview of what might happen should these companies, and others, default. The banks, namely Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and from other accounts possibly Deutsche Bank will find themselves LONG on oil futures with no customers on the short side of the derivatives. This will most likely lead the banks to sell the excess oil futures without a care for the price. This is no different than what happened when Bear Stearns was forced to sell off their gold futures in March of 2008 which then resulted in a sharp downturn in the price of Gold.
Reuters stated:
We have yet to hear their commentary. A Chinese statesperson was quoted as saying “"If we were among the banks receiving that letter, we would be very angry.” You bet your bottom dollar. You don’t think the firms listed above are angry, or, are they frightened that if the Chinese State Owned entities start taking affirmative action it could theoretically bring down some of the biggest remaining names on Wall Street?
Remember Reuters initial story was titled Beijing's derivative default stance rattles market. Read it thoroughly for more information.
Then, read the story that broke last Saturday to get a clearer perspective before the political and corporate spin started to enter the story. China warns banks on OTC hedge defaults –report.
On September 1, 2009 Reuters said that the Banks, not the commodities would be at risk if China followed through.
Yes, legal battles would ensue should this happen and we can also expect to have Chinese political figures downplay the story in an effort to avert panic. However, if they can prove that these derivatives or the underlying asset was manipulated in a manner to profit the bank that issued the product then that may even do more damage than the default themselves.
Perhaps the “buzz” on the floor is indeed true. Perhaps we are going to see action that could annihilate one of the biggest Wall Street firms ever.
If there is one thing I have learned of late is that when the Chinese speak, we must listen. Their list of allies is ever growing and they are simply fed up of having to swallow the US garbage that has turned out to be toxic and dangerous to their highly controlled and coveted state owned enterprises.
I leave you with these thoughts that I alluded to above. The Chinese market has corrected 25%. This news broke this past weekend. New York saw a sharp sell-off on Monday. Buzz of a bank default hit the floor. The rumor did not abate and the selling intensified. The selling carried over into Tuesday. Gold, a classic hedge against troubled times has broken out to the upside, China has purchased 50 billion in IMF bonds and has been questioning the US dollar now for upwards of a year. China was up 5% overnight and Gold has continued to climb this morning.
Where there is smoke there is often fire.
nicely said; but dude; a simple link and a first few sentences of the article you wish to post would be enough.
Anything China defaults on with the chosen 6 will be papered over by Obama/Timmy/Ben. I'm sure Ben has already responded and it will be a very hush-hush reneging party, we can't afford stigma can we? Chinese will let the banks/administration save face, we won't know about any reneging on the part of the Chinese unless there is a FED disclosure (not likely).
"Just as you [Eichmann] supported and carried out a policy of not wanting to share the earth with the Jewish people and the people of a number of other nations — as though you and your superiors had any right to determine who should and who should not inhabit the world — we find that no one, that is, no member of the human race, can be expected to want to share the earth with you. This is the reason, and the only reason, you must hang." Hannah
In other words, you and your superiors have no right to determine, while I and my superiors do.
Excellent human being. Fine remark on human nature.
yeah, to bad Heidegger tap that ass for more than 30 yrs. You know which Heidegger I'm talking about; but if you don't there's always google.
Funny how the Jewish people reserve the death penalty only for those they alone choose, and using their own special rationale.
Otherwise they are against it.
Smacks of a odiferouiesness.
It's coming and quick and it's meant to make us feel helpless and dependant. You can either shrink from it and give it more room to expand or tell it to shut up and back off. I mean sure CNBC is the greatest sitcom on tv EVER but what else do you have to look forward to given unchecked power. It'll bring you nothing but misery.
General Electric Co. hasn't received a single locomotive order from any North American business this year.
http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/2513536/
No green shoots here.
The li'l engine that coulda
http://www.offthemarkcartoons.com/cartoons/2001-04-17.gif
The green shoots are between the railroad tracks.
Duplicate
I'd expect more news along these lines from Siemens, ABB, Alstom, etc in the next few months for turbomachinery and T&D equipment.
Lead times for manufacturing and delivery of HV transformers has collapsed from ~18 months a year ago to about 18 weeks currently (pun intended).
Why should they care?
GE is a bank, 'thanks' to Welch and Immelt. The work isn't arduous, dirty, no messy people to deal with.
strictly out of curiousity, how often do you post as "Anonymous" Tyler?
funny... I have been wondering the same thing...
He is everywhere.
Again, he is nowhere. It is Zen thing, you know.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0KK0msnLhw
I am going to go by writing style and suggest numerous times.
Do you think that Mr. Dover and Mr. Gramm could be close relatives?
I have no idea.
But if i was to speculate, i would say Mr. Dover is definitely not a relative and Mr. Gramm is more likely a buddy (with a fabulous sense of irony)
Phil's posts are some of my favorites.....magnificent writing skills and perfectly captures the mindset of the thinking of that group.
any particular posts that stand out?
As if he doesn't post enough under his psuedo name?
I'm no financial expert, but from following your blog it seems obvious that there's a disconnect between the undisputable evidence that this slow motion financial train crash we are watching still has frightening momentum, and the governments lying proclamation that their efforts to save the world have succeeded. This celebration is what troubles me the most, because these are the very people that know best how grim the situation really is. Without some 'surprise' geopolitical scapegoat coming along very soon, they are going to look very VERY foolish. Does anybody else have a sick feeling of anticipation every time they turn on the morning news?
Does anybody else have a sick feeling of anticipation every time they turn on the morning news?
Don't own a TV; but yes; i know what feeling you're talking about. Every morning my friend, every morning.
Nice synopsis... and yes...
I wholeheartedly concur with your assessment.
great post 60090 +1
The timeline of the Bush and Obama presidencies have some eerie rhymes up to this point.
I agree, the grim reality, we now have cheap paper covering decrepit plaster and termite riddled walls. But would the overall situation be better in any way if the population was openly shown the horrid state of their dwelling? Wouldn't that lead to a total loss of confidence, vacancies, lost rents, and accelerating deterioration? Plenty of cheap paper and a few boards might just keep the status quo in place, the house upright, and the rents coming. In just a few years, the rents could pay for a proper renovation. But we don't really know how riddled the house is, how long standing. The termites march on. The followers of Zero Hedge well hear the low buzz of grinding bugs and the gruff spit of slipping nails.
"the low buzz of grinding bugs"
That's what's driving me nuts. Thanks.
Nice metaphor.
I do disagree, however. All of us could just learn to live with the truth, take the adversity that will arise head on, and grow from it. We would likely have more resources to make repairs sooner if we just took the situation head on. Better to be conscious of the exact problems, than passive and hope it all blows over if we hide from them.
It is like living in a dysfunctional family, or staying in a bad relationship when you should get a divorce. Life grinds on until you get the issues out in the open. Only then can you heal it. And in retrospect, if managed well, you have growth that stays with you the rest of your life that makes you more useful for yourself and others. This crisis is a growth opportunity and our leaders are scared children who will not man and woman up. If they won't, we have to.
Scapegoat?
Wa, wa, wa - H1N1, the great spoiler.
Double dip, H1N1 will provide cover as an excuse for why we didn't have a fully recovery - kind of like a force majeure.
You complete me
Anybody want to throw some stones at the G20 summit? I think a discussion of some of the extraction timelines or lack thereof could be threadworthy.
These summits are just theatre, the bullet points were written months ago. The MSM still feeds us these summit events as if they are actually doing something there when in actuality they are only socializing and making faces for the cameras.
Perhaps you're right and they are dog and pony shows, but the impacts are very real. Look at the British elections, the Japanese elections the upcoming German elections. Carrying on as though everything is 'okay' is starting to have dire results for the parties in power no?
I think bullet points need to be better scripted and enhanced in terms of cautionary proceedings. The people are tired of hearing how their money is being spent without seeing 'main street' getting better.
All this crap is getting more and more out in the open and causing all the leaks of information that is all over the place. It's creating stronger and stronger rifts between and in governments. I think the G20 summit will likely be rifted as all get out with tons of leakage of information. It's getting out. Period. Just gotta find it cause it sure isn't getting on major media.
Right, well I was most intrigued by this BB snippet: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aGFWtBfFGI3o
and Trichets conflicting response against Browns plee for infinite stimulus.
Trichet here: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aGITBxp7UULE
Brown here: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aKOUXWiHsErI
Basically Brown wants cash forever and low rates, damn the long term inflationary measures and polarized private world full speed ahead. Trichet at least began to outline means to exit the market despite keeping rates low. I'm excited to see how the US markets will react when Oct. comes and the FRB withdrawls from direct monetization and reverts to indirect monetization....
I know. It's like they are all mad men. Stuck trying to make something unworkable work. Sucking everything into the crazy. The black rose. Slavish devotion to trying to produce something that just wont work. I just hope theres a 3 strikes your out clause in the universe.
Right well this ties back to the Keynesian theme on ZH this past week. That it makes them seem as if they are doing something for the public; the public is pissed at having been robbed and knows all this spending will result in higher taxes and doesn't want to get screwed in the future too, hence the outrage and big shifts in parties.
I was curious what others think will be happening in the bond markets/equities from October on.
No there is no three strikes and your out clause, unless you mean the one where you miss three times and then the govt issues you a double.
Mostly likely they will simply agree to create or transform a current international financial entity into a clearinghouse for derivatives, spew out some bullshit rhetoric about bonuses, explain how contentious of an issue capital reserves and mark to market are and all agree that the United States is a big jerk.
And of course they will sacrifice a black bear for the upcoming harvest of plebian labor.
TumblingDice,
To undertake such an act has not yet crossed my mind.
;-)
therein lies the dilemma.
While over time there will be more to mine on Fan/Fred, they have been reasonably exposed. And the past week or so stories have begun to surface on the FHA (including the ZH piece on recent GNMAs). What I really have not seen much of recently is insight into the various FHLBs. You know, the organizations whose shareholders are mostly the various small to midsize banks and insurance companies who potentially represent the next leg down (not strong hands). And a number of the FHLBs became relatively big players in various mortgage products as assets or loan collateral. They did it without remotely the same "talent" Fan and Fred had and without much in the way of systems. There has to be a shoe to drop there. Would love to see ZH investigate.