On Opening Day, Fed Continues to Take Economy Out to the Bawl Game
The market was relatively quiet today as investors brace themselves
for tomorrow's Labor Force Participation Rate Report, Money McBags means
Jobs Report, from the (No) Labor Department which will likely be more
fictitious than a James Frey memoir, a Jayson Blair news story, or Ryan
Seacrest's girlfriend (at least the girlfriend who supposedly pees
That said, even with unheard of negative geopolitical unrest as the Middle East goes through more changes than Chaz Bono, unknown long-term effects of Japan's nuclear meltdown as low levels of radiation now seep in to US milk making it potentially the second most harmful milk additive after Strawberry Quick, and unconscionable short-term effects of the just released NSFW Kathy Griffin topless pics which caused onlookers to go all Raiders of the Lost Ark, the market remains unflappable so a negative Jobs Report will likely be ignored more than Harry Markopolos by the SEC or full disclosure by the Polyamorous one's
heir to the reasonably priced and bought on discount throne. So while
Money McBags is going to drop another ~1k words on the market today and
likely another 1.5k-2k tomorrow on the Labor Force Participation Report,
fell free to just click on the pics, enjoy National Cleavage Day
and buy the fucking dip, because data and thoughtful analysis matter as
much in this market as brevity mattered to Tolstoy or panties matter to
As for macro news, initial claims for unemployment
benefits were released and they either dropped 6k from the upwardly
revised 394k, or they rose 6k from the downwardly reported 382k of last
week, depending on which made up number you choose to use as your frame
of reference in the latest version of the government's "Hold the shock
and hope for no awe strategy" where data is more relative than an
Alabama resident's family tree. Basically, this week's number was the
Andy Dick of (No) Labor Department data as it can go either way. That
said, this strong (or weak) number follows ADP's March payroll data
that said the economy added ~200k jobs, though sifting through the fine
print of the ADP data, it turns out half of those jobs were for
unicorn trainers, alchemists, and buttfors (and if you don't know what a
buttfor is, it's for shitting), so as always, it is hard to trust the numbers.
In other news, factory orders fell .1%
which was the first drop in 3 months and only an absolute value sign
and a forecastable data set away from economist guesses of a .5% rise.
Also, the Chicago ISM
index fell from a 22 year high of 71.2 in February to 70.6 in March
(and for a business barometer to be at a 22 year high in this
ponzeconomy™, it must be ingesting some of Charlie Sheen's second hand smoke). The most interesting part of the data is that the
employment component which likely includes future assumptions rose to
65.6 which is the highest level it has been since 1983 but the optimism
was likely driven by the start of the baseball season which is the time
of year when Chicagoans become most positively deluded.
There was also something released today called the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
which rose for the first time in 5 weeks to -46.9, so whoopee that some
made up index that Money McBags cares about as much as he cares about
feelings, Donald Trump's birth certificate,
or that Dancing with Stars program, went up to a lower negative
number. Oh wait, what's that? The made up number indicates a
recession? Now Money McBags knows it is fictitious because if rising
input prices (and this is one input
for which Money McBags would pay any price), 15%+ real unemployment,
and slow wage growth signal recession, then Money McBags isn't his real
name (and yes that was sarcasm).
Finally, the Fed released discount window loan records and it turns out that in 2007 BofA tapped the Fed's discount window more frequently than Money McBags would tap this ass
(though with less effervescence). Bloomberg News reporters received
two CD-ROMs with the data, each containing an identical set of 894 PDF
files, a character profile for an elf in World of Warcraft named
Berspankme, and 7 MP3 files, all of the song Friday. As to the release of the records, JPM Chief Criminal in Charge Jamie Dimon said “I think it will make it harder for people to use the discount window in the future,” to which Money McBags responds "Good."
See, here's the fucking deal, the discount window isn't a fucking toy
and if a bank is fucked enough to have to use it: 1. Fuck them for
sucking at their jobs. 2. Investors should know what is going on since
bank financials are more manipulated than Newt Gingrich's twitter account
so knowing a bank is using the discount window provides
INFORFUCKINGMATION to the market. and 3. If Money McBags wanted to
hear from an asshole, he would have farted, so kindly go back to bilking
investors in the quiet of your own gold encrusted office.
As for international news Libyan foreign minister Moussa Koussa defected
(and Money McBags can't figure out if Moussa Koussa sounds like a
rejected Dr. Seuss Character (And today Moussa Koussa, the marvelous
defectee, ran away from Libya, and that cockrod Qadaffi), or the product
of a smurf and an oompa loompa fucking), as NATO heads up the US's
support of Libyan rebels as a way to make sure we get our fucking oil.
Meanwhile, Europe's recovery
showed prices rising and weaker consumption, because, um, that is what
happens when prices rise, people generally consume less as their fiat
currency becomes more worthless than Wells Fargo debit rewards
or script writing advice from M. Night Shyamalan. The problem in
Europe (other than that whole hygiene thing) is that the recovery is
more uneven than Halle Berry's chest
as Germany continues to at least tread water as their unemployment rate
dropped to 7.1% which is the lowest since reunification while Portugal
sinks as their deficit continues to get more out of hand than Nekiva Hardy at a Burger King (but to be fair, the fries were cold).
Portugal reported a budget deficit of 8.6% of GDP for 2010 which was
well above their 7.3% target and they blamed it on changes in accounting
rules such as being required to report both credits and debits, to do
away with coin flips when marking to market, and to discontinue the use
of floating decimal points. As a result of the outsized deficit,
investors sent yields on Portugal's 10 year bonds to new highs, which
is going to make it a fuckton harder for Portugal to continue to ponzi
scheme their way out of their fiscal issues (and perhaps they should
auction off Liliana Queiroz with their next bond issuance to drum up demand).
In the market, not much really happened except Microsoft filed an antitrust case against GOOG, which is like the pot calling the kettle black, Nouriel Roubini calling someone a bit of a curmudgeon, or Camille Crimson calling someone a cumguzzler.
And if you missed it, Money McBags dropped ~3k words of analysis and dick jokes on one of his favorite small cap stocks yesterday on the award winning When Genius Prevailed in a write-up that makes the sell side look like, well, like the sell side and Warren Buffett blush. Plus he has more today on small caps because he knows you all need five more minutes to procrastinate and Money McBags is here for you (especially if you look like this).