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Operation AIG II to Save Pensions?

Leo Kolivakis's picture




 

Via Pension Pulse.

Reid Epstein of Politico reports, The Fed, Wall Street plan for default:

With
less than two weeks before the United States cannot borrow more money,
the Federal Reserve and Wall Street are making plans to prepare for
the country’s possible default on its $14.3 trillion debt.

 

In the most revealing comments to date, Charles Plosser, the president of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, told Reuters
the nation has for months been in “contingency planning mode” to deal
with the fallout when the federal government runs out of money.

 

“We
are developing processes and procedures by which the Treasury
communicates to us what we are going to do,” Plosser said. “How the Fed
is going to go about clearing government checks. Which ones are going
to be good? Which ones are not going to be good? There are a lot of
people working on what we would do and how we would do it.”

 

The
Treasury Department has repeatedly denied making plans for default,
saying raising the debt ceiling is the lone acceptable option. A
spokesman did not comment to Reuters.

 

Wall Street officials are in the same boat, devising what the New York Times called “doomsday plans in case the clock runs out.”

 

Meanwhile,
the Wall Street firms, the Times wrote, are seeking to reduce their
risk related to Treasury bonds while hedge funds are hoarding cash to
purchase U.S. debt if the price plummets in the event of a post-default
sell-off.


The paper wrote that a full-scale financial panic has not set in but is close.


“The metaphor is a pile of sand,” Mark Zandi, the chief economist at
Moody’s Analytics, told the Times. “You keep putting one piece of sand
on the pile, nothing happens, and then, all of the sudden it just
caves.”

 

Plosser also told Reuters that, despite the shaky
economy, the Fed may raise interest rates before the year is out. He
said he expects the unemployment rate, now at 9.2 percent, to fall to
8.5 percent.

 

“I don’t see the fundamentals of the economy as
changed that much,” he said. “Yeah, there’s been some shocks and
disruptions, but the underlying forces that are going to cause us to
continue a slow, moderate recovery are still in place.”

Hate
to tell you, but it's becoming easier and easier to telegraph the Fed,
the ECB and the rest of the financial "elite." I literally laugh when I
read about a "doomsday scenario" or Wall Street firms "reducing their
risk to Treasuries." Who are we kidding here? Wall Street firms are long
Treasuries, so is PIMPCO and they're all long risk assets waiting for
the Mother of All Short Squeezes. When everyone is bearish, get greedy
and become a pig. Contrary to popular belief, pigs often don't get
slaughtered and they make out like bandits!

It will be rocky but
at the end of the day this sucker has to keep grinding higher or else
the risk of debt deflation shoots up tenfold -- something which the
financial oligarchs will not mess around with. They'll fight deflation or
the perceived threat of deflation tooth and nail to ensure future
profits.

And what about public pensions? Mark Heschmeyer of CoStar Group reports, Pension Fund Earnings Skyrocket, But Concerns Temper Gains:

The
nation's three largest pension funds reported preliminary gains
ranging from 17.5% to more than 23% for their fiscal years ended June
30. While the results represent the
funds' best performance in years, fund managers were subdued in their
assessments because of current economic uncertainties, and because the
returns still were not keeping up with the needs of its members.

Real
estate gains for the three funds -- California Public Employees'
Retirement System (CalPERS), The California State Teachers' Retirement
System (CalSTRS), and The New York State Common Retirement Fund - were
mixed. Real estate returns for the California did not match the overall
performance, whereas real estate returns exceeded the New York fund's
overall gain.

CalPERS Reports 20.7% Return

CalPERS, the
nation's largest pension fund, reported a 20.7% return on investments
in preliminary estimates for the one-year period that ended June 30,
2011.

"This is our best annual performance in 14 years," said Rob
Feckner, CalPERS Board President. "For the second straight fiscal
year, the pension fund exceeded its long-term annualized earnings
target of 7.75%."

The net-of-fees performance was the strongest since the 20.1% return of 1997 and the highest since the 2007-09 recession.

As
of June 30, 2011, the market value of CalPERS assets stood at
approximately $237.5 billion. A year earlier, the fiscal year ended with
$200.5 billion.

Real estate investments yielded a 10.2% return based on numbers only through March 31 (not June 30, 2011).

"Despite
the good news, we're well aware of continuing uncertainties in the
global financial markets," said George Diehr, Chair of CalPERS
Investment Committee. "Accordingly, our strategy is accounting for such
factors as high unemployment, the depressed housing market, and
financial turmoil in Greece and other debt-plagued countries. We're
moving forward with our risk-focused asset allocation strategy and
developing new tools to respond to market conditions."

CalSTRS Earns a 23.1% Return

CalSTRS, the nation's second largest pension fund, posted a remarkable
23.1% return on its investment portfolio, the highest in 25 years.

The
return rate soundly beat the actuarial assumed rate of 7.75%. It
brought in $29 billion for the fiscal year ending on June 30, 2011.
CalSTRS investment portfolio's market value ending June 30 was $154.3
billion.

This marks the second consecutive year of robust performance, after the fiscal year 2009-10 return of 12.2%.

Despite
the healthy return in 2010-11, June's stubbornly high unemployment
rate, a sluggish housing sector and weak consumer spending, nationally,
point to continued challenges for the economy and for investors,
highlighting that CalSTRS estimates it cannot invest its way back to
financial health.

As of June 30,
2010, the gap between the value of the fund's assets and the value of
CalSTRS obligations, or the funding gap, had grown to $56 billion.

"The
stock market has rebounded nicely from the economic near-death
experience of 2008, but it is far from healthy and it presses the need
to put a solid funding solution into place for the long term," said
CalSTRS Chief Investment Officer Christopher J. Ailman. "Solid
performance in the past two fiscal years puts some wind in our sails,
but it doesn't make up for a lost decade of returns."

"As a
result, we have taken steps to generate returns in response to the
financial crisis, such as our temporary shifting of 5% of assets from
global equities to take advantage of opportunities in distressed
markets in fixed income, real estate and private equity. This move alone
has yielded returns of about 29% since inception, ahead of the equity
market over the respective term," Ailman added.

Real estate investments in FY 2010-'11 yielded a 17.5% return.

New York Pension Fund Earns 14.6% Return

The
New York State Common Retirement Fund, the third-largest fund in the
nation, earned a 14.6% rate of return for the fiscal year ending March
31, 2011. The estimated value of the fund is $146.5 billion, the
highest since the global economic downturn in fiscal year 2008-2009.

"The
fund remained resilient during a tough economic period," said New York
State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli. "We've come a long way back."

"There
still are reasons to be cautious about the ongoing recovery," DiNapoli
said, "but the results are a good sign that the fund has weathered the
worst of the downturn. We're on the right course."

Real estate investments yielded a 26.7% return.

All
this proves to me is that US pensions plans are not out of the woods by
any stretch of the imagination and judging from the meager Q2 results, Canadian pension plans are not faring any better.
Importantly, if liabilities keep growing faster than investment returns,
pensions are screwed and will need to cut benefits down the road.

So what will happen if the US defaults and "disaster strikes"?
Absolutely nothing. Business as usual on Wall Street and they're going
to be using every piece of negative macro news to buy the dips and make
more money. Even if the sky falls, which it won't, the financial
oligarchs are already busy preparing for Phase II of Operation AIG. Stay long risk assets throughout the remainder of the year and for all of 2012. If you want to speculate here, pick up some distressed European equities and bonds like National Bank of Greece (NBG).

 

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Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:52 | 1478118 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"The paper wrote that a full-scale financial panic has not set in but is close."

Glad to hear that the good folks on Wall Street are worried for once - while the average citizen (who will probably be least affected) on Main Street goes blissfully along in his day to day life.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:52 | 1478117 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 Just to make sure I'm getting my signals straight here; is it okay to sell my Chinese Solar panel manufacturers in order to invest in the National Bank of Greece, or should I wait?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:30 | 1478005 nah
nah's picture

save duh money bitchez

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:30 | 1478000 ThirdCoastSurfer
ThirdCoastSurfer's picture

From $200.5 to $237.5 neglects to mention the $252b,  or whatever the actual number was (it was way up there), that S-CALPERS reported prior to the collapse.  

That the fund is 1/3 from the top it is 1/3 from the bottom and these are not numbers that sit unexamined like a coin collection, projections and budgets and everything is based on the current number looking forward and everything prior to 2008 went out the window and amounts to 3 lost years and counting. Spin it anyway you want, the fact is that all these funds are far too exposed to risk and are not, as of yet, too big to fail. Did they learn their lesson? Obviously not, they've doubled down!

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:10 | 1477931 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Leo one morning will wake up to the horror of all these pensions and 401K's seized by the govt. I'll laugh.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:12 | 1477940 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

I take it day by day. Laughing all the way to the bank today. Shutting my computer off and going for a swim and some sun. Cheers.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 15:05 | 1478197 Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

Good luck fulfilling that dream you shared with us.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:43 | 1477820 Thisson
Thisson's picture

Lol @ Leo advising Americans to hand over more money to Madoff...err...Bernanke.  "But guys, look at my statements, the returns are great! He's killing it!"

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:50 | 1477828 akak
akak's picture

One cannot take the scribblings of our dear little leo quislingasskiss at face value --- they are simply intended as an entertaining farce, like Ben Bernanke's congressional testimonies.

I do wonder if our dear little leo's chin similarly quivers while he is writing his inane pro-statist, pro-status-quo ramblings, though.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:38 | 1477800 boyplunger
boyplunger's picture

Insane.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:36 | 1477791 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

So... that row of decks chairs has been nicely aligned.

Shall we meet in the ballroom for a few drinks and some dancing?

I hear the band is quite good.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:33 | 1477784 centerline
centerline's picture

Meanwhile, muni's don't have a printing press and are up against a wall.  The bailout is obviously in pumping the markets... but it is not enough.  The interventions will be larger and larger, with diminishing returns.  No telling how long it go on - but "forever" isn't one of the possibilities here.

I agree that money printing in one form or another is what will happen.  The threat of deflation is too great.  Actually, real deflation IS too great and it will win in the end.  But that doesn't mean that the elite wont try to run from it.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:23 | 1477747 akak
akak's picture

If you want to commit financial suicide here, pick up some distressed European equities and bonds like National Bank of Greece (NBG).

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 13:04 | 1477655 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Major head fakes coming.  No deal Leo, Gold will track right up with the markets.  Which one would you rather be holding?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 12:49 | 1477555 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

Get ready to cover shorties:

(BN) *OBAMA AND BOEHNER CLOSE TO MAJOR BUDGET DEAL: NYT

Like clockwork!

 

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:05 | 1478495 milarepa
milarepa's picture

Hi, just curious, do we know how much of those pension returns are off mortgage-backed securities and other dubious assets?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 16:04 | 1478493 milarepa
milarepa's picture

Hi, just curious, do we know how much of those pension returns are off mortgage-backed securities and other dubious assets?

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 14:55 | 1478136 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 Short the DJIA from 12,700; with a stop at 12,950. I'll probably get wacked, but I pay too much tax anyway.

Thu, 07/21/2011 - 12:48 | 1477505 DOT
DOT's picture

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