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OTPP's Neil Petroff on Active Management

Submitted by Leo Kolivakis on 04/19/2011 07:33 -0400

On Monday, after S&P issued an unprecedented warning to the United States government, I was lucky enough to find Neil Petroff, Executive Vice-President, Investments and CIO
at Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan (OTPP). Mr. Petroff only had a few
minutes but was kind enough to discuss some issues which I will get to
below.

First, Paula Vasan of aiCIO reports, Ontario Teachers' Petroff: 'Active Management Outperforms':

The Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan (Teachers') chief investment officer Neil Petroff, riding a 14% annual return in 2010, claims the fund's active strategy has added more than C$23 billion to the bottom line since its inception in 1990.

In a wide-ranging interview with Petroff, the CIO of Canada’s third-biggest retirement-fund manager claims: "If we were a passive fund, we'd be C$23.2 billion lower in value, with liabilities at the same level. That really speaks to the value of active management - you add value when you pay for active management."

This seeming evidence of the effectiveness of active management also supports the fund's mix of external vs. internal structures that come at a time of stellar growth for the fund. Regarding the value of internal vs. external management, Petroff replies that all departments of the fund outperformed last year due to their embrace of both processes of active management. "As long as the internal team earns appropriate risk-adjusted returns given the cost, I'm indifferent to which approach is utilized," Petroff tells aiCIO.

Furthermore,Teachers' benefitted from a range of transactions and investments in 2010, such as the fund's purchase of UK's national lottery operator, Camelot, a UK high-speed rail, and interest in a Brazilian investment bank. "All those investment from 2010 have great potential to help pay our pensions going forward."

"This was the best year in the past 20 years in terms of dollar-value added," Petroff states, noting that large increases in real estate and private capital fueled the superior returns. According to a statement released by the fund today, Teachers' achieved its double-digit return in 2010 thanks to rising stock prices and gains in real estate. Net investment income totaled C$13.3 billion ($13.8 billion) last year, up from C$10.9 billion in 2009. The fund managed C$107.5 billion in assets as of December 31, compared with C$96.4 billion a year earlier.

Teachers' revealed that real assets such as infrastructure and timberland returned 13.9% for the year, followed by stock and private-equity investments (10.4%), fixed-income (9.9%), and commodities (3.2%). At the end of 2010, Ontario Teachers’ equity portfolio holdings were C$47.5 billion, up from C$41.2 billion a year earlier. Fixed-income assets were C$45.9 billion, up from C$35.3 billion. Meanwhile, the fund’s allocation to commodities rose to 5% last year from 2% in 2009, and was valued at C$5.2 billion at year end, up from C$1.9 billion.

Still, Petroff knows such high returns can't last forever. "This kind of return is something that's tough to repeat," he says. Despite the optimistic returns, the plan said it continues to face funding challenges due to factors such as member longevity, retirement periods that exceed working years, and low real interest rates, with an estimated funding shortfall that increased to C$17.2 billion from C$17.1 billion a year earlier.

Nevertheless, Petroff will try to repeat 2010's strong results. In terms of asset allocation, Petroff asserts that emerging markets will continue to be an area of intense interest for the fund. "I'd say that from a global perspective, emerging markets will do better than North American markets, and North America will do better than Europe," he claims, emphasizing his confidence in the long-term value of the sector. "We took most of our exposure in 2005 and 2006. Emerging markets are overheating now from an inflation perspective, but long-term, with their young populations and growing middle classes, the asset class is growing rapidly."

When questioned about the embrace of alternatives, which have enjoyed heightened popularity among institutional investors, Petroff voices his belief that the sector serves not as an asset class but more as an investment strategy. "We started our research in alternatives in 1995, and entered our first hedge fund in 1996. It's been an area that adds diversification to the total fund and it will always have a place in our portfolio."

It's
interesting that Mr. Petroff mentioned the focus on emerging markets
because I was reading an excellent white paper by AIMCo's Brian Gibson, a
former colleague of Mr. Petroff, on how investing in emerging markets "is not what it used to be".
Mr. Gibson concludes that "emerging markets are certainly not what they
used to be, but they still represent a fertile area for generating
attractive amounts of value added."

As far as hedge funds, it's no secret that Teachers' is one of the best
institutional investors in the world (along with others like ABP).
Claude Lamoureux and Neil Petroff hired Ron Mock in 2001
and he has done an outstanding job allocating billions to external
hedge funds. Ron is now Senior Vice-President, Fixed Income and
Alternative Investments, and one of the best pension fund managers I
ever had the pleasure of meeting.

Back to Neil Petroff. We didn't have much time to chat but I did listen
carefully to his comments. First, we talked about liabilities. He told
me that every pension fund is different and has different liabilities. The duration of a plan's liabilities should determine the asset allocation and the benchmarks they use for their investment portfolios.

Teachers' has one client and manages both assets and liabilities. The
profile of their liabilities has changed since now the ratio of
working-to-retired members is 1.5 to 1 (was 4 to 1 when he first started
working there). And those retired teachers are living much longer,
placing additional pressure on the plan. Great news for teachers but you
still have to pay out pensions longer. But the biggest problem with
liabilities has been the decline in real rates (read my comment on Teachers' 2010 results for details).

He explained to me how benchmarks are set in accordance with liabilities
and are routinely reviewed by senior staff and the board. I mentioned
the case about T-bills in money markets and how prior to 2008, some
Canadian pension fund managers were investing in illiquid non-bank asset
backed commercial paper (ABCP) to easily beat their benchmark. He told
me that Teachers' uses a spread over the OIS rate instead and manages
liquidity risk extremely well, especially after 2008.

I let him know that I've been tough on Teachers'
in regards to private market benchmarks. We talked a lot about
benchmarks. He explained that Teachers' Private Capital does use a
spread over public markets. As for real estate, infrastructure and
timberland, they're long-term cash flow providers and the benchmark
(CPI+575 bps) "isn't easy to beat over the long-term". True but I've
seen some funny things in real estate where pension fund managers took
big risks to easily beat their CPI+ benchmark. Mr. Petroff explained
that Cadillac Fairview still has an operating benchmark of IPD and their
operations focus on stable cash flows, just like infrastructure and
timberland.

On this last point on benchmarks, one senior pension fund manager shared these thoughts with me:

Leo, I now you are very involved in comparing benchmarks. The more important difference is leverage implied by gross versus net assets.

OTPP made a lot of money on being able to run a leveraged balance sheet (150 B gross versus 100 net assets). They
effectively borrowed 50 billion at an average cost of around 2% and
made a decent 10% on that capital in 2010 and 2009, not so well in
2008.

If one is restricted from non-real estate borrowing, as some provincial rules require, that road for return/risk is closed. OTPP unlevered returns work out to about 10%, which is what I got to, with a lot of historical j-curve baggage.

One
can argue whether it should be or how big it should be but those are
the facts. Not sure where CDP (Caisse) fits on that scale, but my guess is that
between recovering 2008 write-offs and leverage, you have a big part of
the differential.

Finally,
and most importantly, I liked what Neil Petroff told me about being
"non-conventional and opportunistic". I mentioned that I wrote about the
time Teachers' took a big position in Transocean Ltd.
and publicly commended them for having the guts to take that position.
"We did our homework and found that Transocean had virtually no
liabilities". That position alone earned Teachers' nearly 80%.

Here
is where the discussion got interesting. I told Mr. Petroff that I like
asset managers who take concentrated positions. Teachers' did their
homework, saw an opportunity and bought Transocean shares as they
tanked. Did they also consult their external hedge fund partners? Maybe,
but the point is they took a big position in a company that most
institutional investors were steering clear from at that time. "We won't
always be right but if we're right 60% of the time, making more on
average than we lose, then we come out ahead."

Mr.
Petroff added that unlike mutual funds "who churn their portfolio every
18 months" pension fund managers have a long horizon - ten years - and
should be compensated that way. "The reason we can take concentrated
positions is that we're not looking at quarterly returns like most
mutual funds that are closet indexers." He also noted that a four or six
years horizon is too short to evaluate a pension fund's performance.

I
then proceeded to discuss how I see ideological warfare going on
against traditional defined-benefit plans. He mentioned that the
Economist did a special report on pensions falling short,
and agreed with me that defined-contribution plans aren't the solution
to the retirement crisis. "The value added we generated over the years
would not have been available to teachers doing their own investing."

As we ended our discussion, I thanked him and asked him why Teachers'
isn't a lot more transparent on their operations. "We can't share all
our secrets because the minute we do, everyone is trying to mimic us." I
agree, they can't share all their secrets, but pension funds can learn a
lot from Teachers' and for me the most important lesson is to invest
opportunistically with a long-term view and not be afraid of taking
concentrated positions after doing your homework. If you're right most
of the time, you come out ahead. That explains a big part of Teachers'
success and why more and more plans are trying to emulate their active
management style.

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Tue, 04/19/2011 - 12:50 | 1184524 FunkyOldGeezer

"The value added we generated over the years would not have been available to teachers doing their own investing."

Before the internet... probably

Post internet... for those with an interest and half a brain, definitely not true.

Would most have the time or inclination to do their own investing, maybe not?

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 12:45 | 1184476 FunkyOldGeezer

My main worry is that there are too many BIG institutional investment vehicles (Pensions, Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds etc). Surely the ongoing crisis has highlighted that there just isn't enough REAL money in the world for them to survive much longer? IF they're all making goodish returns on mega billions, who are the fall guys, because for every winner there has to be a loser, somewhere? Their need for greed does indeed have the potential to 'kill' the people, their very existence, relies on.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 12:05 | 1184244 UninterestedObserver

WTF

"real assets such as infrastructure and timberland returned 13.9% for the year, followed by stock and private-equity investments (10.4%), fixed-income (9.9%), and commodities (3.2%). "

How the hell did they only get a 3.2% return on commodities last year? As for equities the S&P was up over 12% for 2010 and the TSX was up over 14% for 2010 so what the fuck is this guy bragging about?

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 11:48 | 1184176 WeekendAtBernankes

This all sounds wonderful but I am skeptical of these claims. A quick Bing of "Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan corruption" (ever the telling query) returns an article (http://tinyurl.com/q6gp6t) from the Financial Post with some curious information.

In 2008 the OTPP "decided to alter the indexing formula in an effort to eliminate their $12.7-billion deficit."

"The partners decided to modify the fully indexed pensions after it became clear that increasing contributions could not keep the pension fund out of the red. Despite raising contributions in 2007, 2008 and 2009, the new $6.1-billion infusion was simply used to wipe out OTPP’s 2005 shortfall. The hike did not make a dent in the current deficit, which is estimated at $12.7 billion."

Draw your own conclusions. Just remember to be skeptical of any fund's claims re it's own performance. Especially if that fund is an extension of a national government and its public employees' union.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 10:58 | 1183910 Mercury

He mentioned that the Economist did a special report on pensions falling short, and agreed with me that defined-contribution plans aren't the solution to the retirement crisis. "The value added we generated over the years would not have been available to teachers doing their own investing."

Unfortunately, not every pension manager can be above average.

And in ZIRP-world expected returns on the sane end of the risk curve just don't cover the nut.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 10:22 | 1183693 web bot

Leo,

I want to be constructive with you and your article.

Given their returns, what are your observations on how they manage downside risk given market volatility? To me, given the importance that pension funds play, there should been some sort of moderating effect of returns versus risk, even if it means they achieve lower returns.

I'd appreciate your thoughts on this.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 10:47 | 1183878 Leo Kolivakis

The only pension plan in Canada that effectively managed downside risk in 2008 was fully funded HOOPP. They don't follow the pension herd and were smart enough to increase their fixed income allocation to 50% prior to 2008. OTPP is now very much focused on managing liquidity risk. They still use leverage to increase returns, which can work against them, but they're smart enough to use leverage judiciously. Other pension funds cannot use leverage because laws prohibit them from doing so.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 11:13 | 1184015 disabledvet

and those are very wise laws. "the point of a pension fund is not risk adjusted returns." kind of like "the point of debt printing in the US is to get the world all excited about their inflation." i'm still waiting for Wall Street's "Apologia." With Goldman up on "Day After Baby Dinosaur Training" of their latest and greatest young guns courtesy of Standard and Poors methinks i'll be waiting a long time for even an "ooops."

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 11:03 | 1183963 web bot

Thanks Leo.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 09:56 | 1183576 Pseudo Anonym

pension fund managers have a long horizon - ten years

than how come Petroff is not purchasing bullion gold/silver and have it delivered? Just like University of Texas? That's what I want to know.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 09:53 | 1183567 Imminent Crucible

Bruce appears to be spoiling for a fight with Leo Pensionopolous. Look at it this way, Bruce: If inflation is the basis for the returns at OTPP (and it is), Mr. Petroff should have no trouble replicating 2010's sterling performance in 2011.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 09:22 | 1183478 Bruce Krasting

Off topic a bit Leo, but a question for you. What is is like to live in a hyper inflationary country like Canada? The most recent read puts you at an annualized 13%. Do you like that? Do you feel richer now that prices are going up more than your investments results? How do you think your neighbors feel? I'm interested in the ones that do not have the capacity to avoid these increases.

Every person is Canada is poorer as a result of this release. The funny thing is that you are probably cheering this result as you think that the inflation in Canada is going to mean higher stocks. Wrong. This is just more evidence of failed policies.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 10:45 | 1183847 Leo Kolivakis

C'mon Bruce, think you're smarter than that. Your statement is ridiculous.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 12:24 | 1184341 gorillaonyourback

bullshit leo, that's the exact question bruce should be asking. the problem with our country is we paypeople peanuts to do honorable work(teachers) and pay people like neil petroff huge sums of money to push paper and go find the bigger fool. now ask yourself this leo, if you enjoy living in a society that has large middle class that is prosperous why do SUCK NEIL's dick who is actively participating in the dismantling of the middle class. you ask what do i mean by that, well the concentration of wealth is going into fewer and fewer hands and we are borrowing money on the taxpayers back to just maintain the illusion of being a middle class country. hell iran and china have a better gini coefficient than we do. So go ahead and keep suckin his dick and one day you will wake up with giz all over your face and realize we r in a revolution. oh yeah make sure the shoe shine boy shines your shoes at the airport.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 13:16 | 1184695 Leo Kolivakis

Sorry, but I'm not ''sucking anyone's dick'' and have been tough on all the major Canadian pension plans. Is their compensation outrageous? You bet it is but their board and their stakeholders approved it because they're delivering the results. OTPP and other large DB plans are actually protecting retirees from more pension poverty, so I do not see how they're responsible for aggravating income inequality.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 09:37 | 1183524 RowdyRoddyPiper

Currently we (Canadians) are having a federal election so as usual we are being offered all kinds of bribes with our tax money to vote for our favourite monkey. My grocery bill has increased by close to 30% in 2 years, gasoline is up 30% this year alone, but the monkeys insist the answer is more spending, or, when they are feeling very sneaky, a slower pace of increase in spending.

It isn't looking good here and I fear for the future, but my house value keeps going up, up!

OTPP's Neil Petroff on Active Management

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