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Outright Panic: Too Far, Too Fast?
Markets were roiled once again today as the mouseclickers were busy selling giant baskets of stocks. That's the beauty of stock investing, instantaneous liquidation or position reversal. Now we need to figure out if fear has "gone too far, too fast", or if this is simply another ruse to offload more bonds at 2%, 300% oversubscribed.
These two charts say it all....
What was curious today was that copper was actually up on the day, gold didn't crash, the euro didn't crash,and bonds failed to punch out to new highs.
What's up with that?
Who knows, daytraders are getting killed trying to short these bank stocks:
Gotta pick the right ones I guess...
And notice how "investors" were keen to selling stocks and buying stocks which are favorite "hiding places" like cult stocks (ISRG) and retailers and restaurants like Target and P.F. Chang's
Heh, just more jello running around the plate.
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The market has been telegraphing this for many weeks, another great heist for the banksters. They bought, sold, and priced in a "V" recoverey , with no growth in sight.
To me its rational - DJ should be about 3500 in reality.
If you go down in the woods today
You're sure of a big surprise.
If you go down in the woods today
You'd better go in disguise.
For ev'ry bear that ever there was
Will gather there for certain, because
Today's the day the teddy bears have their picnic.
teddy bears are long :)
buy buy buy cash is trash
yes Robo, there was panic (as opposed to generalized anxiety) selling this afternoon with JPM GS BAC.
http://www.nhs.uk/video/pages/medialibrary.aspx?Filter=&Id=%7Bd98a7c41-3751-4714-9995-d17eb162096b%7D&Tag=&Uri=video/2008/april/Pages/c_panicdisorder.aspx
Sell Mortimer, SELL!!! Come on, I've seen this one thousand times and even wrote about it last time we had paranormal activity where pundits were predicting another Black Monday.
If you are a portfolio manager, you got two choices: either you liquidate or you accumulate. I'd be accumulating next week all the way through the US jobs report. Tech, solar, mining, oil, nat gas, you name it, I'd be buying it like crazy.
Also worth noting today, which I will discuss tonight, the world's largest public pension fund is being asked to seek higher returns. The liquidity rally is about to get a lot more interesting in the year ahead. Forget the noise, focus and pick your spots well or risk severely underperforming in 2010.
My focus remains on these solar stocks which suffered a huge haircut this past week:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=csiq,fslr,jaso,ldk,sol,solf,solr,spwra,stp,tsl,wfr,yge
I am also looking at some tech names I like to buy. Use this weakness before the big jobs report to buy and accumulate more next week. You won't get a thousand opportunities so stay focused and pick your spots well.
Today's market action:
Most active gainers:
NYSE
Nasdaq
Amex
Most active decliners:
NYSE
Nasdaq
Amex
Buy solars sell volatlity, thats a beauty.
Blah, blah, blah, come back to me in a month and tell me how off I was. Anyone can piss in the air, make a call and stick with it. What's your track record?
You got to cool it. You are like a broken bullhorn.
A diet of eating your words, when I last checked was lacking
in nutritional value. Google the government food pyramid.
My track record is to watch it all dribble down into my shoes and socks. I need a hefty dose of Cialis and a montage of RoboT's bevy of beautiful babes to get it up in the air.
1) You sound pretty stressed. Things aren't going your way.
2) Do you even have any clue *why* those solar stocks got mauled this week? Versed in German solar subsidies? Or are you just some nitwit fuck running stock screens for hard-hit stocks? I run over pricks like you daily.
Leo,
My track record? I shot a course record 62 on a championship layout. I'm a professional just like you and I always do whats best for the integrity of my game. Try it, you might like it.
Can't knock Leo for his conviction. Fun to watch someone hang it out there.
"I know I'm right, it's the market that is wrong." That's conviction for ya.
How do you capture the volatlity of one way? down.
I should ask Leo he seems to be CIO of ZH Securities.
I want to ride that wave for all it's worth and retire.
Leo Leo Leo, you behave as if there has never been a single big wig riding on the short side of the trade. What is more tenable; trying to psychologically justify inflated prices to retail investors , or crashing the son of a bitch and starting the whole game again? I like the alternative play going forward though. Debasement is the price of progress.
Why are you confident in the employment numbers given the dismal showing of state unemployment today, not to mention the work I put forward on the unemployment numbers? See Are the Effects of Unemployment About To Shoot Through the Roof?
Reggie,
I do not have time to get into it but this is what I'm looking at:
1) ISM New Orders above 60 for two previous months
2) Leading economic indicator in an uptrend for many months
3) Corporate profits are up
4) Business invstment is picking up
5) Exports are surging
Let's all take a deep breath and wait to see how Q1 2010 job growth comes in. Cheers, that's it from me on this post.
Corporate profits have been down year over year for 9 consecutive quarters you boob. If that trend is finally broken this quarter it will be entirely due to the financials, which are cycling a disastrous Q4 from last year and are benefitting from relaxed accounting standards.
Business investment is picking up? Exports are surging? You are delusional.
hey you dont watch cnbc??
All is a lagging indicator.
Exempl. There are 18% peoples with out work,
After 6 month there are 25% without work,
after 5 month more, its 30% its the jobless recovery.
Go long buy stocks. :)
Please learn how to read (QoQ) and analyze before talking out of your ass:
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2009/gdp3q09_3rd.htm
I know my economic analysis very well as I worked with one of the best sell-side economics team in the biz. Pay attention and watch job growth in Q1 2010.
I think a double dip is ahead but GDP is not the right indicator to look, Japan managed to keep GDP growth while the balance sheets imploded, see page 11,
http://www.scribd.com/doc/13970982/Richard-Koo-Presentation
this is a balance sheet recession and global, understand Japan first then see if your argument holds. Understand the 1997-98 global crisis because 2010 will see something similar IMO.
released your team, its a herd team, ask the taxi driver.
Like we needed another stinging indictment of the financial sales industry. Please keep reminding us of this trenchant fact over and over as we watch the EUC ramp up.
There's only one option the UST has to refinance itself over the next few years and we all know that. More debt is on the horizon. More liquidity will be the result.
Rinse, wash, repeat. 2nd time's the charme.
How would the US government be able to even look at QE2 or Stimulus 2.0 in a stock market that kept going higher and higher or an economy that gradually improved.
I was allot more bearish last year this time around. I'm out of hybernation now and getting my shopping list ready for Spring time.
I have done the same in 01/14/ 09 and i lost. Only 2 month waiting......... I m rich
Reggie caveat emptor his first sentence sums it up.
How about this LK we have all the time in the world. Well
half an hour because the Haiti Telethon is on at 8.
You seriously need to stop watching kudlow.
Duuuude,
Your gonna get crushed. 13% returns for 2008, 14.7% for 2009. Never took a hit and preserved my capital.
True, I didn't get the nice ride up everybody else did in '09, but my risk management just wouldn't let me go there.
The government needs to fund treasuries. They need Americans to buy a shitload. They are talking about annuities for our IRAs and 401ks. But how much easier to just crash the market and have everybody run like a panicked heard into the loving arms of T-Bills.
It looks like you are trying to use, 'fundamentals.' That metric is over. It's so pre-2008. I can't believe you actually used the term, 'economic indicator.'
Conserve your capital, be risk averse. Wait for the crash.......when? who cares......Just wait for it. Be patient.....walk down and fuck 'em all.
Leo: i am a great fan of your articles on the pension space and thank you much for them.
that said: i've bitten my lip so many times in not responding to your monotone comments that i may have left an indelible scar.
WTF do you know about trading since you continually tell us over and over and over the same f'ing thing about the same f'ing thing.
you have never, once, said anything of substance about anything market related, especially solars ... yet, you continue to beat the same tune on the same drum, day in, day out.
WHY ?? WHY are solars a buy ? WHY is anything a buy or a sell ?
when you fail to EVER give any actual reason (even a stupid funny-mental one) you simply come across as someone talking his book w/o a clue how the market actually works on a day to day basis.
sorry for being so terse, maybe its just the 3 glasses of kris n all the profits made on my shorts this week (csiq included) that has led to finally opening my mouth in response to your drivel. i dunno, but one way or another it's just tired and you are so wrong it is simply scary.
i have great respect for your actual work on the pension space, which is great and fills a much, much needed niche. thank you for it.
but honestly, and all bullshit aside: stick to the pension space and leave the trading advice to actual traders / technicians.
yeah, i'm a young nobody w/o much of a public name. that said: am i wrong about what i've said ? and point blank: you know any technician / chartist or otherwise who feels the same way as you about csiq and other absolute trash that you tout on a daily basis whenever you can. the pension guy just shouldn't be talking about speculative small crap bullshit like csiq; if you said fslr even i'd probably still be biting my lip, simply bc you write for ZH. if i don't have a problem calling bullshit on one of my own idols like Rosie, then why should i refrain for your errant slop simply bc you write for ZH. if when TD / Marla speak incorrectly and massively so, i'd call them out for it ... so, i'm calling you out right here and right now: you are so wrong it's scary and WTF are you trying to do by talking your own book ??
BTW: where the F is your disclaimer if you're really long them and i do believe you are ... so, where is your disclaimer ??
CSIQ and solars are trash? Watch them over the next year. At the bottom of my blog:
Disclaimer Pension Pulse is a collection of my thoughts pertaining to issues on pension funds and financial markets. The information and opinions contained on this site are merely guidelines. This site does not guarantee any monetary claims by following these recommendations. This website is not liable for any loss that you incur due to these programs, nor do we ask for any monetary gains from your success of using these recommendations.We also do not guarantee the results of any products or recommendations listed on this site. You must do your own due diligence before investing in any product.
COPYRIGHT LEO KOLIVAKIS © 2008-2010"I'm going to run my mouth like I know what I'm talking about, and then anybody who loses their ass by taking me seriously is a fool."
I respect you, but at least admit when you're wrong from time to time instead of hiding behind a disclaimer.
thanks for the indirect reply, Leo.
while i don't agree with the who, what, where, when or why of how you do what you do as per trading / TA / pumping csiq until you truly become so ... i really, really do respect the personal cojones you exhibit on a daily basis.
thanks for kinda responding and, honestly, thanks for sharing your opinions.
as much as i may bitch ya out for lacking any reason why xyz ... i truly respect folks who have the cojones to stick their neck out and run their mouth. takes one to know one, kinda. so: much props to you for having the balls to stick your neck out n i'll leave it at that.
enjoy the weekend, sir.
CS--
Loud and clear sir. Well said. I firmly believe that the majority of the ZH community can benefit from Leo's perspective if viewed through the correct (how shall I say this?) "lens". Continue providing thought-provoking mat in the future Chop.
Leo--
Cheers sir...! I admire your fortitude displayed daily on a site so entrenched in the bear camp (for which I am a part, I must add). I assume you must derive some type of value from the counter-argument (as I do when reading your material). Keep seeking the truth, my friend.
Leo the copyright on your disclaimer seems to
have expired. At least your honest do your own due diligence because it is clear you don't. But people
are busy they can't research every idea much less
someone who is wrong more than he is right. You lose
your credibilty quickly. Take heart to what the
fellow said above you add value in your musings on
the pension space. You don't win trader of year on the
basis of what I have read authored by you this week.
You reside too much in the land of rosy scenario
you need to come back to us earthlings and witness
what is going on. Shouldn't the price action this week
give you a teeny clue all might not be as it seems or
what do they know that I don't? or what am I missing?
Humility goes a long way in a trading arena.
For the nth time, I do not trade solars, I ACCUMULATE them. Show me one trader who has made money trading solars, and I will prove he's a liar. No way. I have watched them for over two years, even the best traders will get killed trying to trade them. My strategy in solars is simple, every time they get whacked 30%, 40%,50% or more, I buy more. I have a steady job and I save my money and invest it in these solars. Call me whatever names you want, that's the way I play this sector. Big hedge funds love manipulating them, so I buy when they sell off strongly. The top hedge funds in the world (SAC, Citadel, Tudor, Soros, DE Shaw, etc.) are buying these solars and you traders think you now better than them? Come on, give me a break! (and the cuts in subsidies is OLD news...everyone expected it).
Leo- Might want to quit beating the Citadel and SAC drum. You do realize these guys are not playing anywhere close to above board, don't you? Citadel would still be losing their @$$ without blatent manipulation of ETFC (billions in profits) and SAC is pffffffft whatever. Focus on your focus and go to deepcapture.com and learn a little something about Citadel and SAC.
Biggs,
I am not beating the SAC or Citadel drum but love or hate them, they are among a group of elite hedge fund managers. Of course, tales of SAC manipulating stocks and using sell-side analysts to spread malicious rumors are legend. One thing I like about Steve Cohen is at one point he gave back money to his investors and basically said "fuck off, I'm going to trade my own money and you can all piss off".
As for Citadel, it's simply untrue to claim that Citadel's profits in 2009 were primarily from manipulating ETFC. Ken Griffin is one of the brightest minds in finance. He too is shrewd and ruthless, but it comes with the territory. He was all but written off after 2008, but came back strong and I think he is well equiped to navigate the markets we're heading into.
Thanks for letting me know about deepcapture.com; I added it to my blog roll. Cheers.
Holy S***. This comment alone is deserving of the long-awaited hook from ZH. What is the purpose of buying any asset if you don't intend to make money from it, whether income or appreciation. Wow. Just wow. Buy and hold, NEVER cash in. It's like a weird religion. Must be a sell-side thing.
Cursive,
You love beating on me, eh? Eastwood said it best, "go ahead, make my day". My strategy in solars is simple. I see a long term secular bull market in this sector and keep buying every time they get whacked to death because of blatant hedge fund manipulation. Laugh all you want, we'll see in five or ten years how "totally ignorant" I was for buying every single major dip on solars, especially at these levels.
CIAO Cursive!!!!!
I am with Leo here...not on solars because I think they're going nowhere pretty quick.
My "accumulation" is in natural gas. Everyone here either looks at me sideways or totally ignores my comments on it, though; doesn't seem to spark as much animosity as yours does anyway.
I suppose we'll see in ten/fifteen years whose accumulation was for naught and who made out like a bandit. Frankly, there is no alternative to NatGas, so it'll definitely be me. However, I do wish you luck and the strength to stand up to the naysayers when their vision is clearly limited to next week's payroll numbers.
:D
Accumulating gold and silver....
Leo,
"blatant hedge fund manipulation".
Your so Dreamy
Only because you are wrong. Unless my eyes deceive me
I read several people challenge your thinking. Rather
than accept that challenge you evaporate into blog
oblivion with one excuse after another. Five to ten
years investment horizon? That's light years to a
trader. Why didn't you say from the beginning I'm
accumulating a position on weakness for my 401K? Or did
you want to leave yourself some wiggle room in case
you were wrong in your big bet. Pretend I'm new Mr
Solar why do you like solar stocks which ones and
why? I don't have time to explain it now is not an
acceptable response. I know it's Saturday night and
you want to go dancing but humor me.
Funny, that sounds like my strategy for buying Gold - LOL!
Big hedge funds can be wrong like everybody else you
have said so yourself. You need to insert more
qualifiers in your blanket statements. What is the
time horizon on these solar longs? And are they
naked longs? It also seems you have a dim view
of traders IQ yet you list several large Hedge Funds
as your heroes. What do you think they are? Portfolio managers of real money? They are traders too you numb-
skull. Presently the market is trying to find a bottom until
we see confirmation of that I would not be saying go
naked long your brilliant idea of the moment.
You can say that until your blue in the face. You
lost me blogs ago.
Me thinks solars are screaming buy! TSL, YGE, et al. Now until march, when the bottom is in.
Some nice charts for you:
Nice. With the log charts the pain doesn't look so bad. On the other hand, it visually understates the gain I've had being short since the 1st.
All of those stocks have broken their up-channel trough over this past week. They mimic the SP500 nearly perfectly, so it is certainly worth considering that these stocks will continue to mimic the SP500 going forward. The SP500 has also broken its up-channel support and is headed lower to about 1030.
Solar stocks are in the same liquidity-fueled bubble as the SP, gold and BAC and since solars are of the more-speculative variety, one can assume that they are more susceptible to market volatility than the average bear.
I do hope you have some option protection in place.
The solars and the SP500 will move back off this channel break to the first Fibonacci retracement level since the March ramp. Evel Kneivel could have a field-day on this thing and that alone should be a more-than-adequate tell of the artificiality of this move. A modest retracement is in order here.
Remember, too, that just because you like them doesn't mean they are impervious to market forces. Don't fall in love with your stocks. You can always buy them back later much cheaper.
:D
"It is not green technology, it is SMART technology" -Celente
The solar sector showed huge upside last year. It is boiling hot and the oligarchs continue to put a lid on it. KABOOM! "Its science." -Will Farrell
You've allegedly been in the business long enough
to know charts are not worth the cyberspace they
are written on if we truly are in a bear market. Please
save your ink you are going to need them the red one in
particular I suspect.
"you know any technician / chartist or otherwise who feels the same way"
I know one who is still reluctant to call this top. And he put into context like this. "I've seen this past action before and I can truly say this is uncharted water."
Leo may be right about solars. Not for me.
And Reggie's point about employment ( I mean this nicely) is a no brainer unless you are living in a vacuum. With all the turmoil around the US Elections, The Fed etc who - other than union thieves - might see an uptick in employment. And every new private sector job I would bet is replacing a higher paying one that is not coming back.
And it's seems every day now traders are finding empirical data with fingerprints pointing to manipulation across the board. Whose fingerprints is getting clear.
oh it's a top and i'm a technician who will call such right here right now point f'ing blank.
i'll spare you the petulant bullshit of going through publicly verifiable chat logs n copy n pastin ya here.
suffice to say: i do have an actual clue what tomorrow may bring if not next minute for you name the sticker symbol ... just wait until ZH (finally) develops a chat client.
am a petulant little shit; big time. that said: i'm pretty fucking good at what i do, which is bank like whoa, all day e'ery day.
so many chartists. so many folks who know with certainty what next year holds in store while freely admitting they have absolutely no clue what is coming tomorrow.
a large part of the reason that i don't trade equities is because it would prevent me from ever opening (running) my mouth about them across various chat clients and especially in print on places like ZH.
when i'm not being a total douche bitching out people who publicly preach about mkts as if their word was prophetic fact w/o knowing the first phucking thing about trading / TA ... i do like to share / teach practical TA and help explain some of the idiosyncratic nuances of Mr. Mkt's machinations.
i apologize to Robo for hogging the board; to Leo for being such a douchebag n blowing up his spot; and most of all to whomever just wasted their precious time (especially during prime off-peak) reading the personal bullshit / slop strewn above.
You're wrong about this being the top.
It is the beginning of the top but I think you'll be surprised at how long it goes sideways. This current dip will retrace to about 1040, then there will be one more near-parabolic move to about 1250.
After that , it will drive like a road in western Tennessee; coasting down in lower highs and lower lows for the rest of the year and into the middle of next.
That's a prophetic fact.
:D
I agree. We need the parabolic little blow-off, after some sideways consolidation to really turn things to the downside. Not enough painful whipsawing yet for this to be the final reversal downward.
Exactly. It is going to be a downward-sloping roller-coaster ride through Whipsaw City over this next year. A lot of people are going to get smeared trying to chase this thing around. But a nimble 4X trader can either do very well here or get killed.
Wish me luck!
Don't drink and post man.
I think you mean, "Don't Drink and Drive-l"
I like your picks but wait a month or two. It is time to sit back, relax, have a cold one, and watch the bottom drop out.
Leo must have received an advance copy of that crop report from Clarence Beeks....
"Hold on...**** off."
Greatest Beeks line #1.
Last one outs a rotten egg
AndyC
Hey Leo, a question:
How you can accumulating stocks when you are long??
Is there a money tree there?? Or you have sold some stocks??
When?? Last week??
Hey guy you are long, you dont have money to accumulating stocks. Pls a little bit reality.
Umm, it's called a job dude! Read above.
Glad to see the double down dip buyers finally getting their due. They have been brainwahed, and will not be able to resist the dips till they run out of money. Banksters starting to dig their teeth into the long only crowd will delight me...... hopefully this iis the bankster strategy because the shorts have learned their lesson.... no more meat on that bone.
Exactly. Now they are concentrating on the dip buyers. I watched some of the Comodities yesterday and boy they just kept going down.
They are doing the opposite of what they did on the upside where people would Short and they would ramp it up, up, up with no stop so Shorts eventually had to cover many because of a Margin call. Now the opposite the dip Buyer's are now forced to Sell as the price goes way lower than their Buy price, pushing the stocks even lower, lower, and lower.
Same game plan just in reverse.
100%
Just so you know Robot, people are not getting killed shorting the bank stocks, only specifics. The large bank stocks could have been shorted very well this week, the regionals not so much. The curious thing though, the regionals have a bigger exposure to CRE and are more overvalued than the big banks by a decent margin. Look at FITB for example. Just reported earnings. It is trading near the teens, yet earnings show its current multiple is crazy high historically. What do people do when they see these earnings and figures? THEY BUY!! Why? Can anyone really tell me why? FITB deserves mid single digits at best. Maybe just my opinion but w/e. On a realistic analysis, BAC is the most undervalued bank. With normalized earnings and its cash cow status, it should probably be near WFC right now.
Couldn't disagree more about BAC (which is what makes a market). Their derivative portfolio, the fact that 39% of their mortgages are in CA and about 17% in South Florida, their real Tier 1 capital is weak, they will be forced to lose 9% of their deposit base (to meet the old but now to-be-enforced law), and the fact that they are so widely owned makes the upside difficult and the downside easy (as evidenced this week). I think that if the US loses one of the banks formerly known as TBTF, BAC is it.
By the way, I also like WFC short, as their loss provisioning and way of determining income (implied payments on loans not defined as non-performing but which in fact are not paying) is a joke that will eventually send them down.
LOL. no way in hell
its pretty obvious to anyone with any analytical skills that bac is the most undervalued big bank and the one you should be buying, especially under the offering price
or go ahead and bid up STI and BBT like all the the other morons are ...at ludicrous multiples now
Tried to Short MTB this morning. Chart showed it was overbought. Could not get my Short executed because there were no shares available to short.
fitb is a bag of shit. so is rf. key. hban. sti is currently the king of dogshit hill.
if you haven't already, one of the many good sources to read on this is reggie middleton who is a contributor here and he does lots of granular on banks, a lot of which he gives for free on zh and he has a subscriber service (disclosure, i'm not pimping reggie nor am i a subscriber). reggie takes a longer term view based on fundamentals and i think the guy is spot on and i've been a banker and have followed the banks for over 25 years.
one last note on CREs and regionals...i'm with most at zh as far as cre is concerned i.e. it's gonna get ugly. that said, be aware that the regionals have got the okay from the Fed (the directive was published approx 6 weeks ago or so) to rewrite cre loans, essentially no matter what the LTV is....even though this is absolutely insane to do with FDIC insured funds, it is what it is. This okay will forestall many CRE foreclosures and bring many others back to a current basis. In other words, the hit to regionals on these direct cre loans as they rewrite the paper may not be as bad as what everybody expects, particularly if the debt service can be carried for a bit..
reggie, if you see this, i would love to hear your thoughts on the fed's okay to extend and pretend irrespective of LTV and supporting collateral worth.
Extend and pretend saves the banks from taking the writedowns now, but it exacerbates the problem making it worse for the future. Since it is safe to assume that CRE is not going to return to the 06-07 levels, the loans will have to be rolled over (realizing the equity loss) or extended into perpetuity. In the mean time, the cash flow challenged distressed sales allow the new owners to offer rents materially below those who are stuck in the CRE peak pricing cycle. This simply stresses those owners further and eventually makes it improbable that they can continue to cash flow their properties as thier are similar properties across the street with much cheaper rents.
All the while, cap rates are increasing and prices are going down, thus when the banks eventually are forced to take their medicine, it will taste that much more bitter. If they foreclosed on the properties now, more investors will go in and rents will come down uniformly and quickly, allowing for the multiple bids to actually drive prices back up again. Piecemeal through extend and pretend is a slow death with more suffering.
I have heard investors complaining that rents are too high because banks are allowing the insolvent to stay in their loans as long as they are cash flowing. The market is actually dicctating rents lower, though.
+11!!!
Thanks for responding Reggie.
Well, at least we know where the foreign funds are parking their money (commodities, etc.) The action in the U.S. equity markets, on the other hand, appears to have comprised the bulk of the smoke and mirrors game being played by the TBTFs. There's too much non-confirmation in this down move - and don't tell me that volatility in the silver market signifies anything - to justify this decline being "the one." I'm with Robo on this one: this move is an attempt to continue herding the sheep into the Treasury pen. I'd second with the fact that it's marvelous PR for the banks if they can spin it right (They already are.) Just look at the timing of Obama's "financial reform" announcement relative to the onset of increased downside momentum; this move is contrived and will allow the market to "work off" a technical overbought condition while the Treasury offloads more fiber into the toilet bowl formerly known as American retirement accounts.
I'm putting it out there that I don't see the bottom falling out of the majority of the market (although XLF may bleed for a few weeks) until it is absolutely desirable for TPTB. As for dumping BS Bernanke, what makes everyone think this administration will appoint Volker as opposed to Summers or some other hack? The American populace is horrendously ignorant of economics, and most will reflect fondly on Summers's service during the Clinton years, viewing the correllation between the prosperity of the tech boom and its contextual backdrop as a causal relationship when such a perspective couldn't be further from the truth.
TBTF? To Big to Fck? Sounds American
Commodities agreed...I think that Cop / per showed just that yesterday (pull over 'Merica!). WFMI action has been off the charts too...metrosexual stock haha!
Good point GoodBanker, losing Bernanke and getting that slob Summers instead is no improvement at all at the Fed. Same crew playing the same game with the Wall Street Banksters.
where are the pictures?
Poor baby. Here go:
http://www.popcrunch.com/the-50-hottest-victorias-secret-models-of-all-t...
I like your tinfoil thong pic better. mmm yummy.
Thank you very much.
MsCreant is the ultimate woman in my book for so many reasons, one of which is she knows what little boys (and dirty old men) like!!
Maybe with Bernanke's days being numbered, the Fed has pulled its market manipulating e-mini buying operation. This market punched through support with brutal speed.
Robo?
Where are the Fri. chick pics?
Tell me you didn't buy this market today? You sound very famished--that's Yiddish for "fucked up."
Sorry your arrow is broken. This might straighten it out:
http://sports.popcrunch.com/the-50-hottest-female-olympians-of-the-2008-...
too far too fast? No way, I have been waiting for this since December 28th (I was a month long on my prediction for THE pullback).
What do you buy stocks with? DoeLarrs. What is the worth of a doelarr? nada. Get ready for your last chance (ever) to buy gold....and to BUY SILVER!
Bingo.
Just picked up 100 2010 SE's when we hit $16.90.
Couldn't be happier.
Wasn't sure if we'd see 16's again.
Now if we could just get gold under $1000 one last time would be sweet.
Nicely done Rusty. I just buy my PMs when I have money roll in. I don't much worry about the price, I just buy...
Agree re gold under $1000. The "China Put". I will buy big. Down to $880 (a technical level that was much commented on before gold busted up over $1100), I will back up the truck.
depending on the stress to the holding level (S&P 886 would do it) I have support at $1040 (just like every one else). I could see $1020, but any thing lower would mean reality of the depression had set in. I think we will get into hyper inflation before 'Merica realizes what is happening. Back down to $1040 and then beyond!
There is two things I am most worried about with the market. First is that the people that have regained some of their losses from before March 2009 will be antsy to preserve some of the gains and more selling will result.
Second my guess is the shorts may have come out of hiding and are now starting to short more the past week. Does anyone know what percent of sell orders this week were short sales and whether this is increasing ?
I can live with another five to ten percent correction but my two concerns suggest it may be worse.
First is that the people that have regained some of their losses from before March 2009 will be antsy to preserve some of the gains and more selling will result.
The smart money has been unloading this overpriced shit all along. it's called distribution. p.t. barnum had a name for the recipients.
Second my guess is the shorts may have come out of hiding and are now starting to short more the past week.
Bears have gotten gun shy. The real bears will start roaring at certain tech levels and my guess is that a break of 1085 is where you'll see the bears come out of hibernation. though many at zh seem to frown on the elliot wavers, they either have started to short or will after today as the consensus seems to be that P3 has begun.
Official short interest reports come out every two weeks, but that shit is pretty stale.
+1
TGT is up? Really?
I didn't know they'd done anything since "White Stains".
Let the market fail. Remove all funds, as it is time to show the banksters, investment houses, etc that you are voting NO CONFIDENCE and as such removing all funds from Wall Street. Add to that, remove all funds from your bank accounts but that which you need to 'keep the lights on'.
The time for talk is over, the time for action is now.
"If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen."
-- Samuel Adams, speech at the Philadelphia State House, August 1, 1776.
Kudos.
@MarketTruth
Best quote I've read in a long time. And from the brewer-patriot no less. Would it were that we had even 5 men of this caliber in Washington today.
Agreed - Adams' pursuit of liberty from government oppression is no where to be found today. Sadly, most in our country (and on this site) do not want very much liberty. They prefer government regulation and taxation because they think they are entitled and are victims -- and not solely responsible for finding their way through life.
Our government has virtually no interest in maximizing liberty - because they know best, better than those helpless citizen rubes. Virtually everything the government has done for the past 50+ years has reduced liberty.
Government has trained and encouraged Americans and those on this site to crave and embrace more government. Iam afraid we are not going to be able to get the sheeple to embrace real pursuit of liberty from government oppression.
Robo, where are the ladies?
On a day like today and a week like this, the cleevage should be ever more revealing or not?
Enough charts already, give us some meat. Please.
I feel like a nurse, moving through the wounded troops, handing out Viagra. Here ya go buddy:
http://www.popcrunch.com/the-50-hottest-si-swimsuit-models-of-all-time/
Gentlemen, I demand a standing ovation for MsCreant as she truly deserves it.
I feel like a nurse, moving through the wounded troops, handing out Viagra
You have magnificent writing skills as well, MsC.
+1000, MsC. You took my breath away with the Olympians.
Hear, hear! Gun totin', cigarette smokin' nurse working with the wounded troops... Handing out the eye candy for those desperate fellas without their Robo fix.
MsC should have won the Nobel Peace Prize rather than that, uhh, guy?
nobel piece prize...
tnx MsC
Does seem like when they reverse the Market either up or down from a reversal point they take no prisoners.
Same happened on the upside, now on the downside.
They did not give people a chance to Buy and now they are not giving People the chance to Short.
They always seem to pull the rug out when you least expect it.
Pension plan underfunded. wtf do you know. they will just fill an extension to their 5500 and try to make it up by fall. At that point if they cant they will turn it over to the pbgc.
And pray tell, which major pension plan are you talking about. From what i see all the state funds are underfunded beyond repair, so it must be a private fund. Nonetheless, turning over the trust to the pbgc and letting them distribute it will be the best course of action for any depleted fund.
These thoughts are already being debated within board rooms across corporate america.
Un-employment numbers, like they are going to rock the house and everyone is going to buy in. First there is a massive revision scheduled for FEB report (Jan numbers) of about 800k due to an accounting issue on birth/deaths. Is this priced into the market? I dont think so. Also, even if the unemployemnt rate drops magically by a .5% or even 1% this does not help the current situation. Why?
This is a credit crisis. Just because people get a job, does not mean that the earnings will go into the real economy. They will pay down debt. This will then contract the fake money supply facilitate by fractional lending.
DEFLATIONARY Pressures. Yes, any fund manager buying based on this post should be fired.
Not that they couldn't set up another squeeze, but market action shows the risk-reward to be in favor of the short side. No follow-through on Euro and good support on the lows in AU, AG & HG shows that the market sees more stimulus & printing at the end of this episode. This does not, however, justify current P/E multiples which are priced for a mid-90's pre-growth scenario while it would be more accurate to be pricing a developing market with heavy-handed state involvement, corruption & lies.
(was gona say I am Chuamba)
Reasons for the dramatic sell off:
1. Long overdue.
2. It was the prop desks walking the markets up in the first place
3. The prop desks have to unload to reduce risk due to Obama's Jihad
4. Shorts have been comatose and this is their first chance to make money
5. Too much good news is priced into risk assests relative to shakey fundaments.
6. Bernanke is in trouble and he is Mr. Quantitative Easing and Easy Money
7. The President is irrational and vindictive like a third world dictator and the Congress is a joke.
8. Overall a loss of confidence in the US Government
9. Taxes set to rise with the sun setting of the Bush tax cuts and new taxes on the way.
Every time I see that Platinum Eagle my pulse rate goes up and I start to drool...
Back on topic, your 9 reasons all make sense. Trouble ahead! 2010 is going to be a rough year, I'm going to need a lot to drink.
Haven't there already been a few bear traps on the way up from 666 to 1150? I think this could easily wind up being another given that the bulls have a madman with a printing press on their side. Hopefully that will change in the coming week as more senators see the light, but until then this break is guilty (of being yet another head fake) until proven innocent.
As Bernanke's patron saint said: The market can remain irrational longer than you... ahh forget it.
Haven't there already been a few bear traps on the way up from 666 to 1150?
Yes, there were 389 of them. I counted them all.
oh how desperately I wish to go short! Consider it an involuntary twitch...I believe I twitched 353 of the 389 "opportunities".
I went long in March,
and sold in May
convinced of the short
I've little today
The Black Swan event has occurred. A Republican has won the Mary Jo Kopechne Memorial Prize. Now watch the pin action. Please turn to historical charts...1929 to 1939..Fasten the belts ...
Too far too fast. Are you serious? Starting from March this has been a down blip. Of course if one is triple long on margin tough luck for greed.
Hello everyone! New user here.
I have been reading this blog off and on for about a month now.
I am a young parent with a family of four.
I never thought things would get as bad as they are now in my entire lifetime.
I am very convinced things are going to get much worse. This time many believe, will be the Greatest Depression America has ever had. I have been considering prepping (storing food, supplies, etc). Do you think this is extreme? Are things going to get that bad?
I am merely just a father that wants to protect my family. Just want to make sure I haven't gone delusional and my head is on straight.
thanks everyone!
All aboard the crazy train. Father of two young ones here. You came to the right place. Keep coming back and you will learn plenty. Enjoy the ride and keep your spirits up. Toot! Toot!
Hey pops, welcome to the new decade at ZH! It's a smart blog, but it's lost some credibility from me. I can tell you why in one word: GOLD. Been fighting them for awhile, they are sucking on a big mea culpa right now, so you won't hear too much blather right now.
Anyway, IMHO the best thing to care for a family is food, shelter, and unconditional love. Getting rich seems unlikely, staying rich seems likely only for those who already were... Don't buy the bullshit, and don't let the stress get to you.
toathis,
Glad you posted. I think about prepping as a form of insurance, the way many others here think about gold as insurance. I prepped because I am aware that weather can take out the power in a city for a month. There can be gas shortages. Where I have lived before, hurricanes. Where I live now, earthquakes. You can never get it perfect, but if you go down this road it becomes a bit of a lifestyle. I have stored up foods that are mostly in my diet, that way my system is not shocked all at once with "new food" (MREs blech) if I am living through a crisis.
My point to you is even if the economy was fine, prepping is still a good idea. If I lose my job, I am not worried about feeding folks for a while. Food first, and then things that will make life easier in a power down situation. When you start to feel like that is covered some, then you might consider things like guns and PMs. But with that family of yours, food first.
Prepping used to be "just the way it is" people used to keep a year's worth of food in their pantries, always, in case of a bad harvest. Mormons still do it.
I post this for folks from time to time:
http://www.thepowerhour.com/news/items_disappearfirst.htm
It is as good a place to start thinking as any.
Good luck, there are lots of us here who think this is NOT insane, no matter what the economy is doing.
You know how I got turned on to the whole economy issue?
Peak Oil. Once I got it, I was never the same again. We are all living on borrowed time. The very next day after I learned about peak oil, I tore up part of my front lawn and planted a veggie garden. That was late 2004. Last year, my tomatoes were brilliantly flavorful, figs divine, the few apples I got delightful, watermelon huge, beans plentiful, peppers not so great, spices of all kinds, blueberries still too new to matter, potatoes were interesting (planted too many did not use them fast enough) cantaloupe my neighbors fight over, well, you get the idea.
One step at a time.
Once again, Thank You.
+1111!!!!
Hello welcome!
Stop using FDIC banks. Start with a Credit Union. Stop using ATM's and the like. Take out your cash for the entire month once a month. Store a cushion of money each month. Eventually you will have 6 months or more of surplus ready to feed your basic bills.
Get out of debt. Pay off credit cards. Even raise the credit lines after you pay them off. Then get the house free and clear. Pick a vehicle that everyone in your home cannot do without, pay that off. Stop buying boats, stuff, ATV's etc... pare down and donate excessive inventory inside your home. Get everyone down to about 2 weeks clothes for all seasons.
Go to a site like Epicenter dot com and purchase MRE's everyone needs at least one week's worth. Two is better, three even more so. Haiti's disaster teaches us the following lessons.
1- Get out of urban areas. 2- Stay away from your town., Get to know which of your neighbors think and feel as you do. 4- Consider moving everything to a place where you can get water, wildlife and seclusion away from populated areas. I prefer to be at least 50 miles away from urban areas myself.
Get radiation dosimeters for everyone. Get N95 gas masks for everyone and enough filters for a day. Galls is a website that has some good things.
Acquire and train with weapons. Handguns, shotguns (Slugs) or carbines 5.56 I am not crazy and neither is the wife. In the past year we have fired 2000+ rounds and have enough on hand to (500+ rounds) at all times. We gain proficenty on weapons at various ranges and scenarios. Indoors, Car Carry (Concealed weapons permit) and outdoors, day and night. Between the two of us as a Marine Battle Buddy team for home defense or other scenarios we feel effective.
Store up dry goods following the 100 things to disappear first list. The Mormons have been useful in thier own way while learning what to keep and what not to keep. Think about everyone in your home. Provide a room to store it all. And above all... KEEP YOUR MOUTH SHUT. Otherwise you will become target number one when hungry people come looting.
Stop participating in consumerism. That means no malls, no shopping for trinkets etc. Stop the frivolous bull spending.
Get your burials in order and paid for up front with the funeral home so that survivors will know what to do. Start a vault (About 500 dollars more or less) bolted down to your foundation or slab and stop paying banks 200 dollars a year to rent a safe deposit.
Organize your finances so that everyone knows where everything is. Like spouse etc.
Pick a place upwind from your local hazards. Chem Plants, rail lines, nuclear reactors, fault lines, etc etc etc.. and be ready to grab your emergency kit and go there at any time 24/7 Such a place should be quiet and away from everyone else.
Get a tent together, sleeping bags for all. Then use LED type hand crank lights etc and whatever else is necessary to keep your family in good hygiene, good order and fed/hydrated.
Get several METAL Pre-ban Fuel Cans from the military. 5 gallons come to mind... not the plastic crap. Store at about 50 to 100 gallons of gasoline pre-treated inside a shed that is extremely well ventilated and at least 40 yards splash damage away from your dwelling.
If your 1/4 acre or home owners association does not allow these things... sell out and move to a place with several acres and be free.
Generate your own power with a stand by whole house generator that has a auto switch. It will cost you alot of money but will make a difference between forced evacuation to a shelter. Shelters issue people only 40 square feet to stay at. That is about 6 feet by 6 feet of floor space for each person with sickness and dirty hygiene a real possibility.
Stop trying to commute 80 miles to work downtown. Start living a quieter life much closer to home. Maybe even walking distance. That way everyone is together and living easier in peace. If something happens like a quake, most all bridges around you will be dropped or damaged anyway.
Count your friends. Keep the good and discard the fluff.
Gets even more in detail the more you evolve your own plan to stay independent at least a week to a month or more off anyone's radar.
Learn to use a chainsaw, winches, take up a trade that is practical. Logging was where it was at for me. Many trees in my area are good for firewood or bridging material in times of trouble. The skills I learned with a saw will be useful in trade for others in exchange for something useful to us.
Finally but not last. STOP the blingage. You cannot carry it with you when the sky goes nuclear and fallout is hours away. Keep it simple.
We had plenty of problems around our USA as fair warning. We are living in good times at the moment, but even more so to be urgently stocking up the harvest barn as it were.
Consider your Walmart Super Center expendable. Think for a moment what if the entire place was stripped like locusts Does a field? Then where and how are you gonna have the things you need to maintain your family? We have two years toilet paper on hand and accumulating for example.
Nuts? No. Crazy? Not yet. Insane? It will get nearly so when things happen and everyone wants something right now like Haiti does today.
toathis, the link below will help you in your quest for knowledge of whats happening around you. The bloggers there are some pretty smart people that might be able to help you find answers to your questions. Hope this helps.
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/index.html
Go into the Bits Bucket.
Congratulations on your family. It sounds like you care for them very much and want the best for them.
I will associate myself with Ms. Creant's words in that it is always a good idea to have savings: either cash or food or water- or have some means to get energy- if you have room in your house. The realistic problem with most of those ideas stem from logistics. So now you have thirty-seven cases of French-cut green beans. Where are you going to put them?
Outside storage facilities will be the first ones raided if it gets really bad- after the grocery stores, of course. Like having gold, storing these things on or near your person is the only alternative. It is also difficult for the average person to do.
Apropos the Greatest Depression idea: the fact of the matter is if you never owned anything and own relatively little now, you will come out relatively unscathed (provided you can maintain your current income...). What we have here is a failure of the expansion of credit in that the velocity of money has not only slowed to a crawl but is quite dangerously beginning to contract. (If you don't readily understand these terms, there are many, many articles on the internet for noobs. That's where I learned!)
So why is that so dangerous? Well, when available credit is contracting, it is the same as rapdly draining ready cash from the pool of available money (the money supply...). When that happens, people are forced to sell their stuff at bargain-basement prices as business slows and incomes stall. Nobody's buying and everyone is watching prices drop. Prices decrease further and business slows further and the pace of credit contraction picks up, feeding itself in a vicious cycle downward.
The consumer gets dis-involved because he know he will pay less for these items tomorrow. He waits. That's really bad for retailers and restaraunts, airlines, etc. That process is called defaltion.
Deflation is what the Fed fears most because Unca Ben and his fellows will have to start liquidating stuff to cover debt rollovers and that is where the cycle will start. According to the Austrian school of economics, there is actually nothing they can do to stop it. It is sort of like a China Syndrome.
So, the bottom line is if you have nothing and are just starting out, this time will be epic and unforgettable for your future, if you protect yourself and make the right investments. {In my opinion anything valued or denominated in US Dollars or that benefits from a strong buck is going to do exceptionally well over the next year-and-a-half/two years. (I know, let's hear it, ye buggers...booooo!) These include foreign retailers and exporters to the US- maybe something like Honda Motor. Get long the DXY for a while.}
On the other hand, if you are now reasonably well-off and have a lot of investments and a lot of overhang on your mortgages and toys, then there is a good chance you are screwed. The value of everything you have and bought at the top is now worth half...except the bill for it, that is. The banks say they have an agreement. See?
The best thing to do during a deflationary period is to save as much money as you can and then buy at the bottom; real estate, raw land, farm land, gold, silver...real stuff. Prepare yourself then for the inevitable spring-back into inflation.
Best of luck to you and your family in the future!
Yes it will be bad imo - I see a double dip recession called at the end of 2010 and then a year later or so they will call the whole time an official depression and because of debt and demographics and all the rest we will be in a deflationary depression until about 2020...
Welcome toathis.
Most of the above replies might be a little much for beginners (like me). I would START by buying some gold and getting out of debt.
At the same time you can accumulate food you like and water/water cleaning/water distilling devices.
Consider buying in bulk small but valuable items for trade if TSHTF (dental floss, prescription meds (yeah baby!), vitamins, batteries, etc. Maybe guns 'n' ammo.
A lot depends on your personal circumstances (Live in an apartment? Live in a city or in the country? Etc.).
ZeroHedge is a great website, I have learned a lot while here.
Welcome to the madness. A hunker down strategy
is probably a sound one at the moment until
you see a smile return to your neighbors faces. Markets
right now are best left to the pros with all the
uncertainty on many levels. Greatest depression
we ever had? That is alarmist language but the
delevering begun in 2007 doesn't seem to be over
as yet. Storing canned goods and supplies? Many
people do, just to feel secure if you live in a
natural disaster zone. Perhaps to alleviate anxiety
define what keeps you up at night and find ways
to rectify them in your mind. Ex. find other like
fathers and bounce ideas off them a support group
if you will.
If you are a portfolio manager, you got two choices: either you liquidate or you accumulate
well the marekt will bounce in due course...you might consider putting stops under these lows in solar, etc as you start accumualting like crazy.
11 months straight up and you want to accumualte like crazy? the odds are certainly not as good as they were on the July and October corrections that the crazy accumualtion strategy is going to work.
one thing Leo, ask a friend to read your posts out loud to you.... i think maybe the shrill tone in your written voice will become evident to you.
I like your sector selections I just question trying to get long after an outlier run that the markets have had.
GL
Anjing Bau
Back-to-back days of Robo posts sans ladies... Gentleman, this market top is REAL. Hide the women and children, because things are about to get ugly. (That, or Robo is about to unleash a barrage of cleavage that would make even Marla blush)
I wasn't being sarcastic, sorry if I came across that way.
Sarcastic about what? This thread, or another?
I have been reading comments on this site for quite some time now and everyone posting on here seems very knowledgeable about the truth reality of what is going on.
I wasn't being sarcastic, so please don't think I am lying. I have young children and I want them to be able to eat if things go the way I think they might be.
nobody thinks you are being sarcastic....see MsCreant's response to you for a great starter....i responded albeit shortly to you in another thread. food and water for the young kids. and medicines that are necessary for the kids; if they are prescriptions tell your doctor you want extras to store. if the doctor says no, find another doctor.
ok. thanks for clearing that up and good advice
do the opposite and you make money
lmfao at the bulls
this is what you retards get
lmfao
bbq
Suitable for a day like today even though originally produced around the meltdown of last year: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMVAdC1T-I0
The talking heads are all blaming Obama and his anti-bank rhetoric, but I think this market has needed an excuse to correct since last fall. By the way, to hear them tell it Obama is flashing his "communist pajamas" by beating up on the poor old banking folk. What a crockpot.
Anyway, the market has been acting "toppy" since the beginning of December but just couldn't go down. But corrections are healthy ... unless, gasp!! this is simply a resumption of the secular bear after an extended bear market rally.
Either way, there will be plenty of cash to soak up USTs so the our distinguished legislators can get back to doing what they do best. Spend money.
Its not Obama, its everybody was bullish
Fortunately or unfortunately, many confuse cause and effect. But in this case, am happy to pin the cause on the doofus in the White House.
Nate’s take this morning (Friday) on Nathan’s Economic Edge:
Amazing how fast it comes off, isn’t it? More than 400 points on the DOW and 44 on the S&P gone in just the past couple of days. Pretty bearish action overall, the volume is much heavier on these down moves than on the up moves. Remember, volume confirms price. There was, and still is, a historic divergence in place with volume shouting that the primary direction is still lower.
Yesterday Obama got up and supported “the Volcker Plan” whose stated intention would be to limit commercial banks to staying only in banking and out of the hedge fund and speculation business! That would be terrific and should have happened a looooonnnng time ago. This is the very reason our markets have been completely taken over by them and their massive computers. But the worst part is that they have been using YOUR money to trade against YOU. So YES, absolutely, commercial banks have NO business speculating and levering up.
Now the real questions are: do they mean it, can they implement it, and if they do, are there going to be so many loopholes that it effectively means nothing but allows the Administration to look tough once again? Well, we need simply look at the past year and what is a clear trend is Obama standing up and delivering a beautiful oration with the correct principles, but then the action never materializes. Again, the time of the announcement yesterday on the same morning as Goldman’s earning was absolutely orchestrated to play the public. I DON’T ENJOY BEING PLAYED, do you? In fact I’m sick of it.
Since everyone has probably seen the mainstream twist on the proposals, I want to share an alternative perspective from Business Insider:
Big Banks Have Already Figured Out The Loophole In Obama’s New Rules
…But sources at three banks tell us that they are already finding ways to own, investment in and sponsor hedge funds and private equity funds. Even prop trades seem safe.
"A person familiar with the operations of one big Wall Street bank said it expects that new regulations will affect less than 1% of its overall business.
And if you want to see a picture of how the public is being “played,” the front page of today’s Wall Street Journal in color charts shows how Obama’s attack on the banks had immediate repercussions in the stock market with the dramatic red bar of Goldman Sachs driven down the deepest of the banks shown. This major headline to the uninformed would indicate, finally, that the administration is going to rein in the culprits now seen as the creators of the financial crisis. And the stern faces of the saviors, Obama flanked by the aging banker-oligarch Volcker, are shown on the Journal’s page one to mean, And this time we’re not just kidding.
Volcker is not an oligarch. He never portrayed
himself as a savior that's not his style. Do you get your flippant opinion of him in a book or wikipedia?
Is that what makes you an authority on him? I read
the business insider piece only to get their take,
experience told me banks would have figured out a
way before they left the room. Maybe one day you will
take off the mental training wheels and you'll be
capable of original thought versus madly quoting articles on the internet thinking that makes you smart when when in reality you come across as a smart ass.
Well isn't that clever. That took work.
Well, isn't that clever! That took work.
DOW/SP500 daily charts are now bearish, weeklies remain in an uptrend for now.
My earlier bearish warnings for stocks continues.
My earlier USD uptrend and EURO downtrend warnings continue.
In early 2007 I warned of an impending stockmarket crash.
I confirmed a bottom by early April 2009.
In mid 2009 I warned of an impending USD rally (has much further to go too)
The uptrend since March 2009 has been a bear market rally contained within a much larger bear cycle that started in 2000.
UPDATES:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
Once more, GS:
You are still quite early. I am warning you that if you go all-in on USD longs here, you will get whiplashed beyond belief.
Don't do it.
Ding, ding ,ding...
Look for clues in the BRAZIL ETF, EWZ...
I have been looking at it for years and I can tell you that it is a leading indicator...
FOr instance, EWZ was alot weaker than Dow yesterday and today it was stronger. Since monday is a holiday in Brazil, stocks probably go up from Friday until TUesday..
keep watching