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Over $7 Billion In Domestic Equity Mutual Fund Outflows In September. $2 Billion In Outflows Last Week
ICI has released its most recent fund flow data, and while overall flows have been positive, this has been exclusively due to a ramp up in taxable and municipal fund inflows. In equities, there has not been one positive inflow since August 12. Last week saw a $2 billion outflow from domestic equity mutual funds, bringing the total for the last month to $7.1 billion. Attached are equity flows superimposed over the performance of the SPY.
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Why would there be equity outflows? Retail bagholders not buying the move or another explanation?
Would be interesting to know how 401k investor behavior is being reflected in the above.
You'd also have the effect of people running out of their unemployment cashing out their 401k's and IRA's to eat. Should be more outflows coming.
Thankfully these people caould not put their money in a safe money market fund or heck a CD to generate some gains over say 0.8%
Eating is way overrated - much more important to engage the populace in rampant speculation.
But... but... who will Wall Street sell their toxic bulls**t to?
Just who is looking out for the Big Guy here?
Perhaps the "dumb money" is turning into the "desperate money." Cash out while the get-tings good. Conversely, with all the secondary & IPO's being offered, the smart money may prove to be wrong over time. Smart money has partaken in too much Kool-Aid in their new planet of prosperity; a parallel universe.
Ingrediants to a nasty selloff: (1) Longs have no more or limited money to invest (2) Longs will turn and sell this market quickly to protect gains made in the last 3-6 months (3) Few shorts are left to bid this market up (4) New shorts will enter the market on weakness (5) Government money is getting tapped out (politically, and with the public). (6) Underlying market fundamentals are weak (7) Seasonals, and technicals strongly argue for a top and selloff, and (8) Computer led programs and quants will pile into a negative momentum led selling. Patience everyone...
We must not embarass our Chinese masters, er ... partners before their big 60th birthday party. Another couple of weeks ...
Our 401K employees are finally moving from the safety of Treasuries and money market into stocks the last couple weeks. Assuming this may be representative of the average consumer my hopes are high that this rally is ending (as it is a sham and I'm short). Kind of disagrees with negative fund flows so maybe its GS slowly returning their juice money to the Fed?
anyone know where to get real-time info on 401(k) actors? self-directed IRA participants have been documented to underperform by 400-800 bps annually, so if you knew when these guys started to buy en masse, that would be some seriously valuable info.
Wait! I thought all the POMO cash was flowing INTO, not OUT of Domestic equities.
What gives?
MF flows not much of a crystal ball. http://seekingalpha.com/article/162316-busting-yet-another-market-indica...
Within the past few weeks, my coworkers and I have moved the majority of our 401K's into our Stable Value Fund option and another broad bond fund. The Stable Value fund has never gone down and the bond fund only goes down very very slowly.
Well, that's been the case so far.
We were hoping to be in something stable when October hits and this psychotic market corrects itself (^^biting fingernails^^)
That's strange. According to the latest z.1 (Capital flow) FED data households are buying into the stock market. In fact they are the only ones buying, besides the federal government that is.
The world is not the SPY nor is that even the most fun bubble, maybe they are taking punts on the HK Exchange and Asian REITs. theres plenty of places to lose all your potatoes after all.
The average stocks have been ramped up to 30X 2010 estimates,so they are selling at nearly twice the price of the historical average of fair value. Heck, given the
lengthy time frame of the liquidity ramp, even Joe 401K eventually hears from his better-connected relatives (after all, aren't we all eventually related to insiders?....just that most of us are 3 or 4 steps removed, lol) that the bell is tolling and it tolls for thee? Apparently even slow sheep being led to slaughter have limits.