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Paging Bob Pisani: Mutual Funds See 23rd Sequential Outflow, As Redemptions Accelerate, Hit $80 Billion
Sorry CNBC (and Bob) but there is no way to spin this. ICI has just reported the latest in what is now a weekly farce: nobody wants a piece of this market. Nobody. Retail is out permanently, as was confirmed by the 23rd sequential outflow from domestic equity mutual funds, this time redeeming $5.6 billion, the highest since the beginning of September, right before the Fed full blown stock ramp intervention began. And that brings the total YTD mutual fund redemptions to $80 billion. Sorry bankers - no greater fool, no hot potato. The jig is up. Have fun selling AAPL at $50,000,000 to each other (and of course ENIAC) in subpenny increments. Everyone else will stick to bonds and gold. Lights out.
Weekly outflows:
Cumulative outflows:
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Retail should be kissing the Fed for the cover... they are getting out at great prices... LOL!
And the corporate insiders and the bank employees about to get $144 billion in bonuses. Get those bonuses in before the fraudgate bank holiday!
Silver up 3% today? 30% in six weeks or so - the smoke is billowing from the Crimex.
So which event will cause the Black Swan ? The Day the Bonuses are paid. Or the day QE2 is confirmed.
Ya know, I'd bet on a no more bid scenario when the one of the big boys doesn't take his turn buying and decides to sell instead. The rest start to panic, and algos gone wild crash the market again. Hopefully tomorrow ;>}
This is truly a remarkable, incredible development.
When the shit finally hits the fan, probably not till after November 8, some will look back and wonder, "how did we not see this incredible market crash coming?".
Well, its all right there, for anyone to see.
The end of the Great Keynesian Experiment is upon us. Prepare accordingly.
Please be advised that the use of terms such as "crash," tends to promote hesitancy, doubt and negativity in the market -- please use more positive terms such as "correction" or "retrenchment."
Signed,
TheManagement
Exactly right Fergie. Soon before, we will know if the dollar has any strength or will head for annihilation. It's no longer price moves before fundamentals - it's price moves before the FED.
You know it, 'bout a month ago 112 equities accounted for 50% of the total daily volume NYSE.....when these HFT and quants decide to roll over on each other like a bunch of snitches and race for the exit - shit, think daily "flash crash" for a straight week. And, yeah - tomorrow would work for me too.
Public is learning to ring the cash register into strength, and book profits like the banksters. :) The funds will not be able to buy the dips when they have no cash.........
Not enough "public" out there to "ring the register". Only money Joe Public has in the market is through work 401k or IRA's. And they ain't trading out of that. It's a great scheme, selling back and forth to each other at higher prices, until ends. Just ask Madoff.
At some point I expect the outflows to decline as people take money off the table via their 401ks and IRAs. I'm in my 40s, was debt free, house paid in full, by 35. Do not need a bank. FTF (F The Fed)
I see a lot of RV driving retirees where I stay, during the contract engineering lifestyle, and they are all out of stocks. Trust is gone, the con game has no more suckers left. This is the public, who is responsible for those fund outflows. :)
Not only current retirees, but the whole baby boom demographic bulge that's going soon into retirement has to liquidate or at least move their nest eggs into less volatile assets. What's that giant sucking sound?
Mostly your DC representative on their knees...
Wrong again Wanker...several of my friends have closed their IRA already while the penalty is only 10% plus balance as income...
I will be closing mine down too...we all know Ben will be coming for those soon enough as well...
Yeah, you can bounce pretty high on a POGO, ahem....I mean POMO-stick.
Yep, people are saying "I better get out now while prices are high" vs "It's too late to get out, I might as well hold."
It's unprecedented for the retail investors to sell into strength. I can't recall that ever happening before. There's no one in living memory that can use a historical example.
Bubble Ben will force retail money back in...watch, all that money he's printing will lead to much higher stock prices and eventually, Joe & Jane Retail will succumb to the pressures of keeping up with the Jones! Two factors drive markets: Greed & Fear. It's time to get greedy like a MF!!!
No Leo, people are selling because they need to pay their bills. Food, gas, oil, etc. up. Wages down. Your friend BB is sowing the seeds of our destruction. Your precious pension funds will have their bond holdings wiped out.
"Wages down" As well as the lack of income from their interest earning investments. At first people will try to retain their standard of living. Concern is starting to show, one day that concern will turn to panic. Not looking forward to that day.
Leo you assume that retail has the money to be forced back in.
At the rate we are going Joe and Jane Retail going to be pressured to put gas in the tank let alone, the stock market.
Joe and Jane's foray into "greed is good" hasn't worked out so well for them in the last 10 years.
That said the top 1% of Americans will make off like motherfuckers. After all that is what America is about:Money and Freedom. At least the bottom 99% have their freedom.
Deflation all around. Ben's tactics didn't work in Japan.
If they are lucky...it may not feel like freedom once we get through this fuck up.
Freedom's just another word for nothing left to lose,
Nothing, that's all that Bobby left me, yeah.
Feelin' good was easy, lord, bobby he sang the blues,
I said feeling good was good enough for me, hmm mm,
It's good enough for me and my Bobby Mcgee.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xYFhWV8--io
Timeless. +1
Fear fiat denominated assets, and get greedy for the best (only?) performing sector over the last decade.
Both point to gold and friends.
Have to agree with Leo, all those people expecting an immanent fall of the stockmarket to zero will soon enough be trying to keep up with the Joneses.
Not that a rising stockmarket means some kind of healthy functioning economy, but when has it ever?
imminent
Anyone chasing price has the brains to see that ag commodities and metals are roasting equities with their afterburner. In a deflationary environment, you can't eat iGadgets. :D
I don't think anyone's saying the market will go to zero - except maybe in real terms, hence the AAPL @ $50M comment.
Factor this with a real drop in the market when valued in gold, and the steady rise in oil, and the writing's on the wall.
Except you, that's why you & your like are not buying stocks.
I've said it before, I'll say it again, money market conditions are nothing like pre the crash in '08.
There is no bubble in stocks when measured against other papers being so eagerly sought at present. People will wake up soon enough.
No bubble - correct, in the sense that the public is no longer borrowing money to chase price. Bear market rally with sentiment pegged to bullish extremes like 2008? Heck yes....... volume is getting a little light, except on the down days. "it's different this time because POMO Ben has lit the dollar on fire and no other central bank has a water hose big enough to put it out"...... markets don't function when everyone is on one side of the trade. 2009 rally happened after a huge haircut. We've already grown back what we lost after our correction in the Spring. :)
Yeah, & based on credit market spreads, which incidentally the stockmarket follows cause it always has, we still have a lot of hair length to grow.
The '08 crash was a number 0 buzz cut & central banks haven't done anything to improve the quality of their credit since then.
I'm not claiming the stockmarket will be up a gadjillion % in 2 weeks, it may still have down days, but Leo is right, soon enough those nervous nellies still hiding in government credit will succumb to greed.
Interesting, I've never seen the use of credit spreads to time reversals. Sentiment indicators seem to be the most reliable but I'm always ready to learn something new. :)
My data comes straight from the RBA, it's only monthly data so I wouldn't try to time a reversal with it but the evidence is clear - the stockmarket rises & falls with the underlying spreads between the various levels of credit risk in the money market (bp spreads of 1-5 yr corporate bonds (aa, a, bbb) over governments is what the RBA publishes).
And why shouldn't it? Stocks are just a 'junk' form of credit, they are part of the money market.
I'm telling you credit spreads are still waaaay wider than pre '08, there is no chance of another panic, fear still stalks the money markets, though spreads have certainly narrowed since then, hence the rise in the stockmarket.
Sounds a little like the COT reports (which are a week late). The large traders of $INDU futures have really taken some longs over the past month. Heh, I wonder why............
Good luck with that promo POMO theory Leo and AUD. You're just trying to hype your book.
Tell me how you are going to WAKE UP the dead retail investor.
China is soaring because it has jobs and can dump into the U.S. and Euro market.
The U.S. has lost it's economic base and it's way.
If Benny and the Inkjets could put the same effort into job creation as they do dollar destruction, then the country would have a chance, and only a chance.
The U.S. has lost it's economic base and it's way a long time ago, did that stop the S&P from reaching new highs? No.
Same goes for here in Australia, this used to be a wealthy country, now we continually borrow massive amounts of capital from overseas.
The retail investors will wake up when they see the stockmarket fail to crash, despite what everyone has been telling them for the last 2 years.
The only real retail inwestor out there Leo is the fed. Thank goodness for Wall Street since this is just about the only source of revenue left to the majors. Nice how this slice of retail is following the retail sector generally. I can't help but think that if the fed wasn't buying everything good ole Howard Davidowitz's call on a 30% reduction in retail space would be spot on
Howard Davidowitz's call on a 30% reduction in retail space would be spot on
Amen Miles. Davidowitz is the best... I love when I get to hear him on Bloomberg!! It doesn't matter who interviews him, they always treat him like "crazy uncle bob", but he is a sharp, sharp dude!
Classics remain classics... even when it's the Yaahos hosting
http://www.prisonplanet.com/a-gigantic-ponzi-scheme-lies-and-fraud-howar...
While I find it hard to believe that the markets can keep going up. They are. So, what do we know for sure.
Ben said he will do anything and everything to keep this going. He knows it effects psychology and consumer spending.
Gold is telling us the printing machines are working overtime. Marc Faber has said to buy stocks, commodities and
anything denominated in dollars because Bernanke will print, print and print. Marc has been so right. Beyond what I
could ever imagine as far as the markets go. Short interest is near or at record highs. Believe me. After covering many
times, I even put on a short financial position again today. While owning many PM miners and long Platinum ETF's.
Now, what we don't know. Who is actually doing the buying ? GS, JPM, Barton Biggs, and the FED ??? Who ???
Leo, retail is only in this game at the 401k or IRA level. They're not wondering on the weekends which stocks they should buy because everything is going up. Besides, who has time when college football is on 24/7 and reality hoarding shows take up the bulk of Joe Public's time.
Awesome. TD (or anyone), how much debt was rolled and how much new issuance in Sept.?
Thanks.
Market rises relentlessly due to $3T Fed Liquidity Pump and Eniac, but mostly $3T Fed.
I'm actually gonna to toe-dip back into the market in my 401k. QE2 is taking the SPX to the moon.
Also, could the money be moving into equity ETFs?
QE2 has already taken the SPX to the moon. Ok , so lets say it tests the all time highs. Whats that , 15, 1600? Wooopy de woop. 30%. And guess what. Your cost of living will have gone up 60% and gold up 80%. So stop playing the game and do something sensible - withdraw from the system , goto finite stores of wealth : arable land , gold , diamonds , fine art , antiques ,wine , whatever. Then do something useful with your time instead of worrying about what day is a POMO day.
Nope. ZH already answered here: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/summarizing-2010-etf-outflows
I have done well on this pick: RBC precious metals (Canadian mutual).
The spx and the vix have both crossed the their BBs. Whenever this happens it has always led to a downturn of some sorts.
Interesting observation, thanks for bringing it up. I'm always trying to figure out of a BB hit is going to lead to a reversal or not but comparing it with the VIX seems to make sense. VIX fell off the scale!
It's taking DBA, GDXJ, and SLV even further. ;)
The Fed is nationalizing our financial markets...
How is it that the Fed can nationalize anything being a private corp?
Oh that's right, because they own the country...
Awesome quip. First time I've laughed today. Thanks.
"The Fed is nationalizing our financial markets"...
"Has nationalized" is more like it, depending on what your definition of is... is.
These mystery buyers might have forgotten that some day, some way, they are going to need some body to sell to.
As Gomer Pyle used to say : " Surprise, surprise, surprise ! "
I think the mystery stock buyers are the people who are selling the bonds. Taxable bonds are being purchased hand over fist. Additionally, all the people who sold stocks from Oct 08 to Mar 09, put their money into banks and money market funds. Now, they are redeploying those assets into bonds. This gives the bond sellers a temporary increase in sales. I think some of this money from the bonds is being recirculated into stocks from the bond sellers. Once the money market funds are drained to their equilibrium levels, stock inflows will be severely dampened. I don't see stock inflows increasing on yearly basis for decades in the mutual fund arena, if ever again, because of ETF's. The boomers are booming the bond market.
The market is in one of those long Wile E Coyote moments.
The fed better step in very soon or all their hard ramping will be for naught, its hovering....
Oh it's definitely going to work....... in commodities. :) Talk about wheelspin. Gun that inflation, POMO Ben!
I think we are at a critical point up or down. I am starting to get the questions and remorse from the "missed it again" retail guy.
Greenspan - Benny's mouth piece was prophetic a month ago on the Sunday shows when he gave the insiders' indication that QE2 and 3 and 4 .... Were coming until the S&P went up.
Their BS is starting to sell, not to the majority, but to the usual retail suspects I know who get sucked in psychologically by the daily Dow. We'll see...
Which generation in America holds most of the wealth?
If your a baby boomer, can you really risk your money, or any substantial portion of it in the stock market?
I believe the time for US equities is over. The lights are not out, but they are dimming fast.
Even the guy on CNBC that presents with Erin Burnett sat there today, looked at the sheets and exclaimed
"Apple is the second most valuable company in America... Really?"
Of course it may have been a play on MS smartphone ads, but I don't think he's that quick.
Haines also realized today that even new pennies are worth more than a penny.
Oh shit -
Time to add to my stack of nickels before that cat's out of the bag too!
Yep, good luck when a faddish gadget maker is the 2nd largest company in the WORLD. People need phones. Most people need computers. But people really don't need, iPads, iPod Touches or an iPhone for that matter. Any phone will do when you get right down to it. The rest is just added on bullshit.
Uh oh. You got junked for a perfectly rational post. Must be one of Steve's little fan boys lurking about.
How could anyone expect otherwise? Boomers are retiring and taking their money with them, the generation behind them got spanked so they're on that once bitten twice shy shit, and people my age are too poor and financially illiterate to have anything to do with stocks.
So true about Primary Dealers and hedge funds selling back to each other, hahaha. The big ramp only works if there is somebody to sell to at the top. I can't wait until SPX is at 30,000 and all the PDs and hedgefunds are looking at each saying "Now what?!!". The game only works when there's a greater fool.
As of today's close ---> 93% of S&P 500 trading above their 50DMA...higher than any time during our rally since 2008. Everything is up now. Laggards are up.
When everybody knows market can only go up but it's all premised on a single entity providing unlimited buying power (except market doesn't really know what that number is but assumes massive...well you know what they say about assumptions, especially those assumptions to be revealed the day after an election).
Be afraid...be very afraid. Retail seems ahead of the curve for once.
3% dollar bulls, 98% gold bulls
Don't forget Silver
Bitchez
I have no idea when but when it starts back down an express elevator in NY will not be able to keep up with the "bids". Gonna be ugly. Until then, play on, but watch your back.
LOL, retail investors are out because of "fear" AND "greed"
they forgot all those "people" were customers
Gee Win- are dupes customers ??
They will not quit until they take out the April high. After that, well...
No hidden strategy with the Dow 11k move on fumes. The pre-election ramp job is well underway with 13 lucky trading days left til November 2. Wall Street and the banks don't want to have to indoctrinate and pay off a whole new batch of virgin critters. Ben has no stomach for it either. The crew that's already in place will do just fine.
And it's gone Bob... When will ya follow the money out the door?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4TlPo0yCSa4
+1
The heat needs to be turned up on the SEC, retail traders should be hammering them with emails, demanding an explanation on how this market is moving up.
That way when it crash,, there will be plenty of evidence that they were told something was wrong.
So, if retail is out and hedge funds are "getting small", who or what then - pray tell - is ramping up the insanity? Is it all just Brian Sack? I think the dollar down stocks up rationale is very convenient, but I'm not buying it.
For the first time in a while, the action after 2:00 was interesting. Not the typical explosive ramp after 3:00 and into the close. A turning point?
SEC email below, we just can sit on zerohedge and complain. We need to voice our concerns
https://tts.sec.gov/oiea/QuestionsAndComments.html
Doncha think the banksters allow the SEC to exist as long as they don't step on the wrong feet? Why do you think the SEC watches porn all day long?
It's not because they have real jobs to enforce the regulations.
Can't sorry
It would be interesting to see the #'s compared to money flow into ETF's. The ETF is a somewhat disruptive innovation to the mutual fund. I suspect many people are simply re-allocating their money into the lower cost ETF version of the fund they were in before.
Ben's actions remind me that he is from South Carolina.He may not look like a redneck, but I think he has just uttered the redneck's famous last words: "Hey y'all, watch this!"
epic lulz
He's qualified to pump gas at South of the Border in his native S.C.
You left out the part that these were the last words of a redneck.
Someone might want to dig up the second derivative on this function. When I squint I'm seeing a noticeable net negative acceleration.
Outflows, say hello to my friend Cliff.
.
The coming collapse in the stock market will make the Flash Crash look like a hiccup..courtesy of Ben Bernanke.
The crash is through the FRNs.
Yea, this is terribl....HOLY FUCK, the futures are UP!
This shit is so fraudulent it's not even worth discussion at this point.
I think there is a real future in 20 digit calculators, maybe solar powered wheelbarrows and very very large wallets made of prime fedskin.
Tyler help me out with this. If we are seeing tremendous outflows contrary to the bank estimates early in the year of inflows than what is propelling the market higher? Even the POMO is near equivalent to the outflows over the past few weeks. So should we assume that since the funds are dollar for dollar that PDs must be using record leverage to buy stocks? Do they not also have a gentlebens agreement to buy treasuries further removing their buying power? Does this mean that banks in essence not selling any stock whatsoever and they have all agreed upon this mutually and as their balance grows with the appreciation so does their margining capabilities which they use daily to in fact buy more stock? This is not including the record high short interest which has meant more selling so who is selling short? Would not most hedge funds be suffering from Stockholm syndrome and just buying worthless paper for performance? Are the banks themselves shorting to hedge to mask their leverage? What I am asking you is how the fuck is this possible mathematically? Which leads me back to life and death battle over a fed audit of the trading desk. The banks are doing POMO to keep shorts on their toes publicly. They are jawboning QE2 to buy themselves more time for the recovery that is not coming and I can only conclude that the Liberty trading desk is engaged in SPY purchasing. If discovered they would simply say " we did this to bring support to the 401ks and decrease volatility with the intentions of selling for a profit in the year 2025 when normalcy returned thus actually making money for the taxpayer" If this is their mentality what happens when normalcy returns? Big Ben will continue to move all in because he believes he has unlimited money to do so and nobody in Congress questions this? I hate to say this but the most effective method would be to counterfeit actual dollars and stealthily flood the money supply and leaving them in suitcases across the nation. Or perhaps not destroying old money and saving it for situations like this an putting it into the money supply. Something is wrong here.
Gold is $1,377. Im selling Appl Tomorrow and buying in more Gold. Thanks TD.
.
This is hysterical reading all of the pissin' and moanin' because you continue to fight the tape. It gets worse, everyone tonguing Taylor's scrote and rining the 5 star bell for his every post. Are you kidding me!
Bankers, brokers, RIA's et. all are not the enimy here folks. You're getting your ass kicked fair and square and no, you can't tap someone else into the ring, you're done!
So own your trades, stop bitching and when the guys who have been long (er at least since the 200 day was broken on the up) start losing, it will be our turn to be wrong. I'm good with that. For every winning trade, there's a losing one, not a crime last I checked.
As for the crap post, not all dollars need to be in equity mutual funds, in fact, I rarely use funds ever!
Why the hate, junkers?
Looks like a run is developing on mutual funds. Money markets and banks far behind?
Part of the Masterplan, before Obama took office Dems were talking about one time tax on 401k/IRA/retirement plans. Somehow they knew that their policies would ensure that 50 to 80% of the public would be forced to liquidate part or all of their accounts just to eat and pay rent. Good news, no need for tax.