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Paging Dr. Rogers: Patient Federal Reserve Confetti Is Asystolic
A few days ago Jim Rogers prudently warned that silver had entered parabolic mode and the the only case which would not lead to a collapse in silver prices (once silver hit $100 that is) is if the Federal Reserve note, or the liability to all those uber-valuable Fed assets known as Treasury Bonds (and of course Agencies, thank you QE1) became "confetti." Well, confetti is what we have. As of tonight, the dollar has just taken out the 2009 lows, and only the extreme carry trade which sustained the overall market into the biggest market crash ever, back in 2008 is now a lower point in the DXY index. In other words only a complete market wipe out, or an exogenous external event such as war, now that the market does not even blink at such black swans as civil wars, bankrupt European countries, nuclear catastrophes, and record earthquakes, can lead to some restoration in the purchasing power of the US currency. Incidentally, as the long term DXYchart below shows, the current dollar cash is by now means the most pronounced one. A far bigger one occurred in the mid 80s, when the dollar was cut in half from over 160 to 80, in a move that, as everyone who was alive back then and not merely some derivative of gaseous gallium metal and arsenic trichloride, recalls culminated with Black Friday. Oh yeah, gold just hit another record high.
And here is a thought experiment for everyone: if the Fed's chief liability - the Federal Reserve note - is plummeting in value, what does that mean for its chief asset - obligations issued by the United States of America...
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Platinum, bitchez.
That Jim Roger's comment stuck with me as well. IMHO he should have said "when", not "if".... because confetti the USD$ will be.
Pt back over $1800 at 11:25 PM ET.
Although the bulk of my PM holdings are in Au, Pt is what I really love. At least I have enough for the moment. Besides, Pt Eagles are REALLY hard to find now.
The real black swan nobody is considering is Republican Austerity. Think about it, they institute fiscal prudence and the dollar regains all its glory. PMs say goodnight.
Edit: Don't fight the Fed.
I assume by your moniker that you are a radioactive isotope of Sarcasium, much like Harry/Hamy Wanger.
I dropped this bit of trivia a while back, but it will be new for many ... the last president to submit a budget to congress that was *smaller* than the previous years presidential budget was ...
<name the president>
The two parties are the same, they just like spending it on different stuff.
Regards,
Cooter
I hear ya.
But the Fed is a different animal. Now that the wealthy have all the fiat FRNs and make all the rules its time for deflation so they can pick up all of America for pennies on the dollar. You Know kinda of like Jefferson warned. The sons of the Republic will become paupers first by inflation and then by deflation.
Regards,
Sock Puppet
Spending takes collusion of multiple actors (Fed, Treasury, President, Congress), which is why I am cynical on real spending cuts.
I got beat up on ZH last time I quoted jefferson as you did, as that quote is aparently urban legend...
http://www.monticello.org/site/jefferson/private-banks-quotation
...but I also think the quote is spot on.
If spending at the govt level stops, the whole system collaspes as a function of money-as-debt. The fed has to prop the system to keep it growing, even if on the federal balance sheet.
I completely relate to the notion that the "elite" don't want to destroy their system, which has them at the top.
It is a very interesting quandry.
Regards,
Cooter
Thanks for the correction.
I like this quote from Jefferson that I think is accurate.
"And I sincerely believe, with you, that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale."
http://memory.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/r?ammem/mtj:@field(DOCID+@lit(tj110172))
Was it Andrew Jackson?
When you run the numbers on it you find nothing about it calculates properly. Even Excel bitches about the numbers. It's just like that "Largest Cut Ever" 2010 budget that turned out to be only $353 Million by the governments own numbers. Crushing debt will continue to mount even if the republicans got all the cuts they want, which will not happen. This game is over and the US Dollar is confetti.
Asking a serious question to the community ...
In the past, "hyperinflationary episodes" were localized, not global, so black markets could crop up where an h-inflated economy could use something else.
With global coordination at the monetary policy level (i.e. all the central banks) ... what dynamics are different as a result? Suppose that all the major currencies contiuned to debauch at roughly the same rate for the next five years ...
This has to have been discussed at some point on ZH, but I don't recall now that I think about it.
Regards,
Cooter
This has been touched on in a bit of detail here, but you have to be kinda fanatical to have noticed the folks who bothered to bring it up.
"Hyperinflation" goes beyond "major inflation," or "skyrocketing inflation," or "really bad inflation." It means that the users of said currency have lost so much confidence in the currency that they prefer to get rid of it at virtually ANY exchange rate for something they perceive to be of value.
The significant point is there needs to exist "something of value" to be perceived by the group of people who are seeking to jettison the hyperinflated currency.
The US Dollar is very special for two reasons.
1) The USA itself is a very large country in which a very large population literally has no meaningful competition for the dollar. (At this time.) Of ...300,000,000 people, how many have realistically ever given any thought to how they would survive if they woke up (as in a Twilight Zone episode) and their FRNs no longer paid for their expenses? A million? Two? CERTAINLY not enough to permit society to operate on any level without the FRN flow.
2) The vast majority of the world has a large investment in USD. Whether it's national governments with Treasury bonds or small merchants in countries with a "soft" (heh) currency who know that the handful of hundred dollar bills they've stashed out will come in handy in a pinch, the dollar is not a currency that qualifies as "important" on only a local scale. It is important to virtually every major economy and in virtually every major population center.
The hyperinflationary collapse of the USD, therefore, is something that is unlikely to occur in the US (until such time as people in the USA have a separate/competing medium of exchange) and can ONLY occur outside the US if a sufficient percentage of the biggest external holders of the dollar lose confidence at the same time.
I'm in the inflation camp, myself, but *hyperinflation* of the USD could only be the result of either a long campaign of gradual systemic change here in the US OR of an incredibly unlikely synchrony of major sudden changes in at least a dozen other national (or trans-national) economies.
Hope this helps.
nice response
<deleted>
And hyper-superior aliens could land and give us magical technology and all the space money we want. Who's considering that? Think about it.
HAAAAAAAAA!
Never the less, if I see one landing, I'LL KILL EM! gotta protect my silver investment :)
+ $46 (close, anyway), + $1800 (Pt), + $1500 (Au)
Your comment is VERY interesting!
Republican Austerity... I doubt it happens. I like the idea A LOT of cutting spending intellectually, and it could happen, but with unpredictable knock-on effects. Yes, that would be a real Black Swan: a low probability event that few could predict but with BIG consequences.
EXCELLENT observation for the Bearing to ponder. Kudos!
Republicans only controll the House. How's austerity gonna work in the Senate? How's austerity gonna get past O's veto? The only "black swan" I see is failure to raise the debt ceiling.
I'm with you on the platinum but I only have a few Eagles. I bought a roll of 1/10th ounce platinum Eagles back in the late 1990s. I sold a few on eBay the first couple of years but just couldn't bear to see the stack dwindling. I still have plenty left but sure wish they were 1 ounce size!
Rocky, great dialoguing with you again.
I have most of my Pt in 1 oz Eagles, but some in I.o.Man Nobles, that I accepted because there were no Eagles available at either coin shop I buy from.
Almost all of my Pt Eagles have dates starting with "19xx"... OK, I understand the Mint is under pressure now, but WTF?! Produce some Pt Eagles, carajo!
http://www.fastcoin.com/index.php/cPath/141?osCsid=k94srr6isg0e1eom94beu8o570
Put them in a bowl and mix them with ether.
After that bring the temperature up to 80 degrees and let it boil.
After 2 hours, your supply will have tripled in volume.
Then cut it up and add some baking powder 30/70.
And you just QUADRUPPLED your investment and you're ready to hit the steets!
...
oh wait....
platinum you said...
I got it mixed up with another investment product...
Viagra?
Absolutely! i am looking at those myself. i may buy sometime. i think people should diversify even in the PM markets. palladium and plat are not having parabolic moves up... yet... why the hell not buy some now and get a headstart on the game?
where's the "silver bitchez" guy...expect a post soon.
I would but I don't really need to do I?
silver... dishes!
Silver may take out 46 before morning.Incredible.
and DXY may very well be 73..... Welcome to Zimbabwe II
It's always close to morning somewhere.
OK... how about 9:00 AM EST?
Wait a minute...I thought it was always Happy Hour somewhere?
I beat'em to it, but with a precious metal twist.
The bond market remains comatose.
Snapback in the DXY next week as a "black swan" is unleashed... I'll bet you a Silver Eagle
The only black swan that's going to do it for longer than 24 hours will be a thermonuclear act of war somewhere in the world at this point.
A Black Swan would indicate that the PTB have some foresight and planning...the last 10 years has shown they are bumbling around in the dark taking stabs at things.
...although in this market a thermonuclear act of war would be bullishly bullish for tech, materials, defense and financials. Not so much the gaming sector though
What about former gamers who retired at the ripe ol' age of 20, and now fly drones?
I think that would be fried black swan. Served piping hot . . . with a side order of flaked strontium 90.
Rogers is rational. He'd just as soon make 25%/year than an up and down ride that achieves the same goal. He's stated he's "buy and hold' and that itch to get out and then get back in is an irritating one that is better never faced. He didn't want to trade his investment, but obviously now its in the back of his mind.
Sustainable r-o-i is much more emotionally calming and eliminates the coulda/woulda/shoulda second guessing.
Well if he had to sell his silver he'd have to figure out what to do with the money afterwards, because he's sure as hell not going to sit on all that cash. What a pain in the ass!
I just read this headline from CRN Headline News:
Fed. president Bernanke called a special press conference to discuss the impending dollar drop to new lows in the financial markets. Fed. president said, "We launch QE3 tonight!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwnnSSs0kFA
I clicked it, but was able to close the window before the sound kicked in.
Oh wow, my mistake - here's the video you were looking for:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwnnSSs0kFA&feature=player_detailpage#t=6s
"Never Gonna Give You Up" is Ben Bernanke's theme song and pledge to the Wall Street bankstas. Like Rick Astley, Ben used to "fetch tea" for TPTB before he was discovered and became the head puppet for TPTB. Timmy G who also "fetched tea" and shined shoes of the TPTB is now deputy head puppet.
By the way, I LOVE this song...it's like an addiction...and Rick's voice is amazing...so you can Rick Roll me all night long.
DIIIICCCKKK
If you are going to go there, at least do it with style ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KANI2dpXLw
I miss Statler and Waldorf ... *THAT* was real TV!
Regards,
Cooter
The Dollar - Destination Unknown
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ya73S4DxHtk
46.01 ask on APMEX .... damn!
APMEX tends to be a little, shall we say aggressive, in their pricing. Fast to go up and overshoot, slow to go down and not as much.
Looks like there is a LOt of resistance to 46 as it's bouncing around just under it.
And yes, APMEX has about a .05 premium to Kitco's spot price. Never have figured out why though.
That extra five cents goes to Jon Nadler for his daily Kitco commentary.
I think he's overpaid.
In this environment, who can blame them?
Neither Dr Rogers, Geitner or Bernanke gives a fuck. The DYX, She no give a fuck either. She's still falling.
Have they tried carry trading with japan. Or is the dying from radiation getting in the way?
Does radiation make people squint?
They are squinting because they are suspicious of you. LOL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4BV935lT-8
The Flight to Safety continues. Except the "safety" is no longer found in the $US. It's clearly now in PMs and other things that can store value.
It's not a bubble. It's a migration. And it's only just beginning.
Exactly. i been sayin'....
One could argue, as Sprott did today, that the flight hasn't really started in earnest (total size of bullion markets compared to size of "paper" markets).
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eric-sprott-expect-gold-silver-ratio-hi...
The paper assets in the world have simply outstripped the real wealth by orders of magnitude. The herd isn't spooked ... yet. At some point, the music will stop and many will not have a seat.
All that said, I don't discount the ability of the banking class to re-re-re-write the rules and keep the music playing just a little bit longer ... we might still be a few years out ... and a lot of law changes ... from the fiat end game.
Regards,
Cooter
What was the crisis low in 08?
70.69 March 2008.
coincidentally, the DOW was pretty much right where it is now at that time 12264-12622 range for the month...and then we all know what came after that...
You have a point- and the tribe does it right around Easter and Passover-one day apart. Can't see them blowing themselves up with so much to lose by crashing the dollar now when there would be so many advantages to blow up gold and silver. Just thinking out loud. Milestones
74.06
Not a dead cat in sight.
Yes. There was only a single "thud."
Atheletic and active cats bounce, massively overweight cats, otherwise known as fatcats hit with one thud
Testing the lows here as well...
I.
H I .
O I .
P I .
E I .
I .
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I . .
I______________________
CHANGE
Nice! Well done.
Try the
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next time you do the Y-axis.
You might as well try CTRL+ENTER instead of ENTER
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argh
LOL!^2
Whats worse is that if we dont BTFD with this guy, we might end up with Trump, Palin, or worse.. if thats even possible.
Did Tyler say the Fed is Assholic?
If he did it sounds appropriate
How low can it go before someone actually thinks it matters?
(and by "someone" I don't mean the people here...but rather those "elected" types)
Parmesan Crusted I-Pads anyone?
They speak when they're told to on matters such as these.
Hear hear!
Gotta wonder what that diabolical mofo'er Bernanke is doing/thinking right now.
sleeping like a baby?
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6f/Borg_dockingstation.jpg
I just picture him sitting on a witness stand looking very much like Bogart in The Cane Mutiny. Mumbling incoherently, tragic, lost, delusional...doomed. A shell of a broken man.
At least that's what I hope to see some day. I can dream can't I?
Scares me to think about it.
Maybe someday soon he'll be thinking about "the green, green grass of home."
The chinese factory workers must be downsizing their meals by each new drop in Dollar's purchasing value..Wait till they find out that their savings have also been rendered worthless by Chairman Ben.
No, they just changed the plastic rice recipe. Now it's 99.8% plastic resin, and .2% potato starch.
What happened to the corn smegma?
It's in your gas tank.
All the PM punters are about to get smoked. Bucky gets a footing and rallies hard. PMs correct 50% plus and then they let the USD die.
I see a seer in our midst.
Is that you, Nostradumbass?
...and six months later PM's and stocks are on a tear...
"PMs correct 50% plus"
100%, at least!!!
Um...string?
If the PMs correct *only* 50% and then the dollar dies, those PM-enthusiasts in the USA are going to be living like kings.
I think you let your compulsion to troll get ahead of your logic.
Less yap flapping and more BTFD please
To borrow from Hugh Hendry "let me be contrarian just for discussion sake". What if there is strange announced out of Europe next week about Greece or from Japan about a nuclear holocaust? A rush into PM's or not?
Just sayin.. .
Just sayin' nothing... in triplicate.
"I would recommend you panic"
If you've forgotten what a douche Jeffrey Sachs is, here's him embarassing himself:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuysYXlJ43I
and of course, there's the Greatest Hits
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DN_eZHxa8Q&feature=related
There'll be a few days of news coverage here in the USA, and some charities will spring up overnight to help the suffering victims.
Let me respond clearly about "What if there is strange announced..."
Corrupted government and medias will NEVER admin anything about the world crisis.
Any doubts about that? Just take some random facts and research a little. I.E.
- Fukushima: zirconium bars cracked because of oxidation (overheat + H2O) -> nuclear fuel has melted in 1-3 cores and H+ explosion breached the reactor shields. Any doubt? Look at that video demonstrating: http://vimeo.com/22209827. Tchernobly * 3.
- Greece: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/meet-keratea-greeces-war-zone. --> PIIGS
Feel free to panic & rush in PMs.
sitting here drinking a few cold ones, wondering how this country became pussified enough to put up with this crap. Then I thought about going mushroom hunting earlier and encountering an old abonded barn with the siding falling off. I said outloud; so this is what happens after you die. All your stuff just falls down.
Quelled by the bread and circuses; but when those stop you will want that old abandoned barn...
Might I reccomend "Cities and Time" to compliment your beer and observation.
http://fora.tv/2005/04/08/Cities_and_Time
Regards,
Cooter
+ dry land fish
Managing public perception is the nail....it is the nail that every hammer attempts to hit.
silver,gold,stocks,bonds are just tools to manage.
I wish we had more free thinkers here.
I believe Maverick said it best... "I'm gonna hit the brakes, he'll fly right by"
Where'd who go?!?
dupe post
Dollar is on sale guys. Buy a short term TIPS ETF or somethin what do you think?
OMG...
...I just know those Ivy Leaguer's have some trick up their sleeve to hit PM's hard and cause a panic.
...
Beaver Dam SOB's...
* Grabs Blythe and drags her to the floor.....All she does is whimper and say "not again" in a shaken and nervous tone.
Dark. Disturbing. Nearly grotesque. I like it very much:-)
+++++
Nice visuals...
Sounds like my prom night. I had to pay her double.
Ha! +46.05. Muy bueno!
We need shot of penicillin, bathtub of bleach, and a roll of duct tape here...STAT!
Oh hell, I'll throw a bid at it....
well before we 'panic' over the worlds problems getting hairy
.
lets at least make sure the elderly and children make significant sacrifices to prop up government subsidized corporate healthcare that sux up 15% of our gdp
.
before we cut our subsidies to Xe, Israel, Pentagon/oil, Fed/Banks, UN, or the nameless washington pork for sugar on down
.
In order for us to feel like RESPONCIBLE victims of failed politics... we need vulnerable ones to lead the way
I am confused... Did my browser redirect me to the ACORN forums again? Dammit, now my user name is going to be on at least 300 ballots in 12 states. At least I got some good tips on filing my taxes for my brothel... I mean nonprofit halfway just.
Does your mommy know that you are using the computer?
So long dollar, nice knowin' ya....It's been, well, fake
Dibs on that dumpster full of FRN's! I want to be forever seen stuffing them into a stove like that German Housewife.
While you do that I'll do the same but switch the order: I'll be stuffing that German housefrau on the pile of dollar-ash near the stove
Oh mein Herr, Zu ist wunderbar!! oooohhhh!
Yes.
"The dollar is dead. Long live the dollar!"
Unfortunately, a war is what we may get.
http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/
Bush started two. I fully expect Obama to at least match his "accomplishments". He's already half way there.
I'm pretty sure Rogers said if silver went parabolic (triple digits) by the end of the year then it would see a sell off unless the dollar turned to confetti then he would hold it. Listen to the whole interview (ZH only showed part of it).
where is dr rogers? fred? er,...jim, i mean!
i'm sorry, but when you put up a graph that shows the dollar at, like 79 in '92 and now, like, down a nickel over 20 years, pardon me for falling down laughing.
It's that beaver dam gold slewie, and inflation, that DOLLAR is just as good as the day the tooth fairy left it under your pillow, even if your pillow is 50% smaller than you remember it.
Say what you will about the tooth fairy, she left Silver under my pillow....
So did mine! Those were the days...
If the DOW, GDP, the other recovery numbers are based in dollars, and the USD is collapsing, what does that say about the reality of the recovery numbers? Scam, Scam, Scam....
Using the "Stock market went up by xxx%" metric, Obama is the greatest president that ever lived.
Aren't you forgetting good ole' mugabe in Zimbe-land?
The emperor has no clothes
and, since the euro is 57.6% of the weighted dollar index and it didn't exist till 1999, thanks, again for the funny picture!
Yes clearly recreating the index with Marks, Francs and a basket of piigs, would be a feat of science equivilant to cold fusion.
Eye roll.
LOL the eye roll! this damned "index" is an egg roll! the "fact" that it is breaking down, right now, horribly, technically, is a jelly roll!!!
thank goodness we could short the ETF!!! we're saved!!!
This is like the twilight zone. Where are we on FED's game theory flow chart? This QE shit reminds me of an end of the world cult. It is so obvious to those on the outside and just as obvious to those on the inside. Buy PMs and get out of the game.
Why am I surprised? Our foreign policy was for years based on Mutually Assured destruction. These people are not necessarily evil. They are worse. They are dead wrong and they are convinced they're not!
I think you just defined evil in its worst form. At least the devil knows what he's up to.
I am thinking of starting a web site to guard the best recipes for gourmet dishes made of the crispy dollar notes and tasty US bonds...
Crispy Dollars in a plum sauce
Bonds and tomato soup
These recipes are much more tasty.
http://www.greatdepressioncooking.com/Welcome.html
And for breakfast:
The Scrambled dollars and smoked bonds
Japanese can use their fx reserves to replace sea weed in their Sushi meals.
Bubba says:
"Fiat is the fruit of the squid. You can barbecue it, boil it, broil it, bake it, sauté it. There's, um, Fiat kabobs, Fiat creole, Fiat gumbo, pan fried, deep fried, stir fried. There's pineapple Fiat and lemon Fiat, coconut Fiat, pepper Fiat, Fiat soup, Fiat stew, Fiat salad, Fiat in potatoes, Fiat burger, Fiat sandwich. That's, that's about it."
USD - I want you to love me .... couldn't resist....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBQ9dm7zaQU
Be careful laddies. All Ben and Tim need to do to kick the dollar up and PMs down is...raise rates a tad.
Not sayin' they will...but they could.
I keep telling folks, stay diversified, just adjust all your return expectations to zero. That's the investment strategy, as opposed to the video game/casino strategy.
You sound like my boyfriend who is old and boring and didn't listen to my advice on PMs when I recommended 700 GLD buy.
Edit: ex
I had my ex buy GLD at 714 now she won't talk to me. Go figure.
Thats why i bought so much silver 5 years ago