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Pan-European Bank Run Is Now On: Capital Flight From UK To Switzerland, As GBPCHF Intervention Strikes Next
Yesterday we disclosed that the reason for numerous SNB interventions in the EURCHF was due to billions in deposits rushing out of Germany and seeking the relative stability of Swiss neutrality. A quick look at the trading pattern of the GBPCHF shows that it is now UK depositors who are panicking and shifting their money to unnamed (not so much anymore) Zurich bank vaults. The result: a 300 pip move in the GBPCHF as the SNB rushes to put out this particular capital flight fire. Too bad it only succeeded for about 12 hours. The run on the bank (to another bank) in Europe is now on.
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Not totally relevant I know, but check out this heat map. there is no safehaven in U.S. Equities at all. Crazyness! I have not seen anything like it since 2008.
http://finviz.com/map.ashx?t=sec
The cockroaches have no where to run, no where to hide.
Real Estate
Asset
Inflation
Destruction
>>> roaches mortgage in, but they don't get out.
but what of cramer's prolific call on DB this week?
"Deutsche Bank's the king," he proclaimed. "Merkel's the champ," he said of the German chancellor
Watching Cramer is like watching a protestor poor gasoline on his head and then setting himself on fire.
You know there's a greater purpose here but for the life of you, you can't figure it out.
Almost pooped a little I laughed so hard
+1
LOL, that was perfect...
Yeah, I knew gold had reached some kind of peak when Cramer started recommending it.
lizzy,
Who is Cramer?
Is that one of those blind men with his hand on an elephant?
Something like that: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ALs1wpQgYEY
"It's the final countdown...
Doo doo dooo...doo doo doo doo dooooo"
- Europe
And so it is time: worst cover ever! *the final count down*
OHHH WHAT PAIN..... PAAAIIINN, I SAY.
Gotta hand it to him though... for consistency, that is. Being a third below key pretty much all the way takes some kind of talent. Good laugh.... excruciatingly painful....but good.
ok, so where is the liquidity disappearing to?
Bündchen is HOT.
ok, so where is the liquidity disappearing to?
Bündchen is HOT.
Get your $0.01 bid's in early !
So what happens next, can someone help me ?
EURO banks loose cash = go down/bankrupt ?
Where is ECB and Merckel gonna get money for her bailout adventures ?
What exactly will SNB / all Swiiss banks do with all that pound and euro ?
tx
Could someone please explain why if money is flying into the CHF that the pairs go up?
If people are buying the CHF, shouldn't the EURCHF and GBPCHF go down?
It depends on what is being sold or shorted to purchase the CHF. Today, there is a huge yen squeeze happening, also it looks like the AUD is getting ass pounded into the ground as well, which could be the arb trade today.
"If people are buying the CHF, shouldn't the EURCHF and GBPCHF go down?"
One would think. In these halcyon days of intervention (aka meddling), one would be wrong.
Swissie, for example, notices that everyone and their auntie is selling EURCHF (selling EUR to buy CHF).
So Swissie goes ahead and BUYS a few billion (was it 13B?) of EURCHF.
Boom. Market rises, a few big green candles shoot up, shorts get destroyed as the price rises.
Swissie does that a few times in a day, with several pairs; continuing buying big every time the red candles start seriously lowering the pair.
Pretty soon the market goes dead. Traders can't short the pair b/c if they do they will be overwhelmed by a wave of Swissie buying. All that's left in the market is Big Brother Central Bank, buying and making sure the price goes up. Oh, and completely disconnecting the pair price from any form of fundamentals, analysis, or trend movement. Hence the term 'short squeeze'.
(They do this to devalue their own currency, CHF, ostensibly to preserve their export market. I don't think that's the reason, but that's their story and they're sticking to it.)
The other thing they've like to do a lot is buy a LOT as the pair goes down, limiting red candles to a few pips down at a time, letting it drift down a few dozen pips an hour, two steps down and one step up. This slows the slide to a glacial pace. (Needless to say, when they intervene with big buying sprees, the pair flashes up 100 pips in a few minutes, often sparking follow-on buying on the momentum.)
Nice thing about this is it doesn't show up on the hour charts. Looks like a bunch of buyers charged into the pair. You can see it happen in real time if you're watching the minute charts as it's happening.
You can probably guess my general disapproval of these measures. But then, I always prefer to take my crashes and losses right up front, no hiding. (Coincidentally, not being a bankster, I wouldn't have a choice but to do it that way anyhow.)
And THAT'S why as Europe is spectacularly falling apart, the EURUSD pair is generally up. ('Recovered' and 'bounced' on politician reassurances and risk tolerance, as the MSM prefer to say. Oh, and on 'global recovery' too. And green shoots.)
ok, so where is the liquidity disappearing to?
Bündchen is HOT.
Can anyone predict a timeframe for capital flight restrictions amongst EU countries or do people think punitive tax rates on capital flight, e.g. 50%+ are more likely? I'm thinking here along the lines of the situation in the UK in the 70's; I vaguely recall the tax rate on capital flight as being somewhere in the region of 70% for the sheeple around the time the UK had to go to the IMF.
Danke schön
Creditanstalt redux.
EURUSD buying support is still evident.
Updates:
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
Sigh...everything is good over there except the cheese with holes...
For several days I have been warning of EURUSD buying support as detected by my indicators, and this has been confirmed by the recent break out.
The proprietary indicators I use can identify trend changes before they occur.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-1
People are getting their money out of europe and want to wait and see what the outcome of everything will be.
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