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Panic Buying Of Physical Gold In Europe Threatens Depletion Of Austrian Mint

Tyler Durden's picture




 

When global governments refuse to act responsibly toward their currency, the people will create their own currency. Welcome gold.

( NAW ) 05/12 08:57AM AUSTRIAN MINT SAYS SOLD 243,500 OZ GOLD IN COINS AND BARS IN LAST 2 WEEKS, MORE THAN IN ENTIRE Q1

( NAW ) 05/12 08:58AM AUSTRIAN MINT SAYS GOLD ORDERS COMING ENTIRELY FROM EUROPE IN LAST FEW WEEKS, SIGNS OF "PANIC BUYS"

h/t Joel

 

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Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:12 | 345992 Hughe Crapper
Hughe Crapper's picture

Sorry, My bad. I had a rational moment.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:18 | 346019 jaybaybaker
jaybaybaker's picture

In November, it was the end of the dollar, remember that? That was the time to go long the dollar. And then gold was a barbaric relic in February: time to go long gold.

So when the dollar was said to be at its end, Americans scrambled into gold. Now that the euro is said to be at its end, all European lemmings scramble into gold.

What's next? When everybody and their grandmother is loaded up with gold, the gold price will fall, and both, the euro and the dollar will appreciate.

Because we are in deflation, folks.

Time to go long the euro and short gold.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:21 | 346032 macroeconomist
macroeconomist's picture

I replied to you in the previous thread, but it looks like you seem to be posting the same thing under every thread, which makes me conclude you are ultra-short gold..Bad choice..I recommend you cover them immediately before you lose more..

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:26 | 346053 BobWatNorCal
BobWatNorCal's picture

Dang, there was a long thread a month (?) ago with recommendations

on where to buy physical gold in the US. One firm was especially

recommended by many ZH commenters...what was it?

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:33 | 346074 RobD
RobD's picture

Hey Bob, is NorCal short for norther California. If so hey neighbor, I'm in Nevada. APMEX is one that is recommended.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:07 | 346354 jaybaybaker
jaybaybaker's picture

Everybody piling into gold at the same time, after the move.

What can possibly go wrong?

I know you guys will laugh at me, just like I was laughed at when the dollar almost hit 70 in 2009, or gold almost went to 700 in 2008 and I went bullish.

Let's see in a few weeks, when gold has come down in a parabolic fashion.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:21 | 346404 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Gold is money.  Gold is currency.  Too bad you haven't figured this out yet for yourself, that's on you.  But to try to scare other people away from the one and only safe haven for their wealth is a sin and a crime.  You will pay for your transgression, and by your own hand will the punishment be administered.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 14:44 | 347044 dumpster
dumpster's picture

chumba... right on these sleaze guts are trooling on the bottom ,, and to be so wrong and yet to try to  change whats real to an opinion with out merit ,,

 

scare people .make them unsure ,, only one word for them  spit

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 15:12 | 347155 omi
omi's picture

There's no point to try to point out that the view of the future of another person is wrong as you don't have the monopoly on the future. Talk about the way you placed your bets instead.

 

While I do think that gold will crash, I'm not playing gold as it's too volatile for me; instead, I'm playing gold miners. When they rally, they have a tendency to have shart drops. That's what I'm looking for.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:21 | 346407 RobD
RobD's picture

Hey Jay,

Keep f**king that chicken.

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ss8LDBNcsWc

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:27 | 346423 Kataphraktos
Kataphraktos's picture

+1000

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:27 | 346424 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Who's piling?  I'm holding on to what I have and not even considering letting go until reality seizes control.  When will that be?

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 16:05 | 347317 nuinut
nuinut's picture

No time soon.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 14:45 | 347050 demsco
demsco's picture

Ordinarily, I would agree that going counter trend makes sense, but not this time. Sure, there will be a pullback, so what? It appears that stocks are the only thing that go straight up anyhow. when it pulls back I will buy some more, but I buy some every month no matter what anyhow. However, I am way more bullish on silver. You also may have failed to put the whole DOJ JPM criminal investigation into account with the rise in price. Mix in political instability with currency debasement and you have THE case for gold, not as a trade, but as one of the core holdings to own, or silver.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:32 | 346075 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

I think Apmex got the most mentions...there are others...

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:33 | 346078 schoolsout
schoolsout's picture

If you don't have much cash for gold/silver like myself, I love Bullion Direct.

Buy whatever you want, they hold it for you until you want it shipped and combine shipping.  You pay a premium, but it allows you to accumulate (if you trust them holding it for you, I've never had a problem)

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:59 | 346170 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

I use Bullion Direct as well,  never had any issues.  You can usually buy around .25-.75 above spot using Nucleo Exchange depending on the market.  Other places charge much higher over spot per bar/coin.  With them storing it for you too, it keeps it readily available to sell or have shipped.  Best place for accumulating smaller amounts at a time.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:35 | 346090 DeltaDawn
DeltaDawn's picture

Best source I have found: tulving.com. 

 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:16 | 346233 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"All the folks around Brownsville say she's crazy..."

Sorry, I couldn't resist...
And you better be the T.Tucker version or I will flag you... ; )

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:40 | 346112 Janice
Janice's picture

In this article

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/it-getting-ugly-quick-fiat-land-sp-now-down-8-ytd-non-dilutable-terms

 

butchee suggested www.tulving.com and SilverIsKing suggested www.tulving.com and www.golddealer.ca

 

I use APMEX. www. apmex.com

Never had an issue.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:51 | 346146 schoolsout
schoolsout's picture

Doesn't Tulving have a min. order amount?

 

I've used APMEX and BD

 

BD has Nucleo Exchange and if you aren't familiar with it, you should be.  Buyers/sellers (private) linked up with BD acting as intermediary.  Very trustworthy so far.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:00 | 346178 Debtless
Debtless's picture

500 oz Ag

20 oz Au

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:52 | 346152 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

i buy from scottsdalesilver.com - great items and nothing annoying about them.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:05 | 346197 BobWatNorCal
BobWatNorCal's picture

thanks, all. I think Tulving was the one that caught my eye in the

previous thread, but I'll be checking out BD and APMEX too.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:12 | 346373 VegasBD
VegasBD's picture

I also buy from APMEX. Fast shipping, tons of large and small $ items, never had a problem.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:09 | 346211 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

I have the same question as BobWat... but for silver...
Where is the best/ most reputable place to buy??

Are Silver Maple Leaf (Leaves...) the best or just silver 1 ounce bars?

Is purity for silver bars regulated at all by anyone? Or is it trust in the seller/refiner?

Thanks for humoring this novice from NorCal...
As opposed to SoCal... The line is generally considered the Tehachapis by the way... But when your state is TBTF... the lines are often murky...

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:25 | 346252 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

Silver bars/coins are regulated by law, so if it is stamped .999 it is.

 

Although American Eagle and Maple Leaf coins are pretty, and usually get a higher premium, when the SHTF, silver is silver, whether its bar or coin or a round mint, it will all spend the same and be worth the same.

 

Buying in different weights is the smart way to go.  1oz can be spent easier, but if you need to make a big purchase you might need a wheelbarrow to get them there.  10z and 100oz bars are good for that type of thing.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:42 | 346478 moneymishap
moneymishap's picture

I love comments like this.

We are not only short fiat idiocy, we are planning on how to transport all our metal when we buy a ranch after the fallout.

Fri, 06/18/2010 - 16:03 | 421890 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Big Thanks for the tips jkruffin...

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:25 | 346253 BGO
BGO's picture

http://www.buying-gold-online.com has a list of over 40 U.S. dealers that sell gold and silver bars and coins

Fri, 06/18/2010 - 16:05 | 421897 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Thanks BGO. Info appreciated...

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:51 | 346315 SilverIsKing
Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:27 | 346057 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

He must be a JP Morgan employee trying to work the wrong crowd. He doesn't realize he is talking to educated people here and not the sheeple.  LOL

Just remember the only word you need to remember:  Hyperinflation

It is coming to many countries near you.  How do you survive it?

GOLD and SILVER all day, everyday.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:30 | 346069 jaybaybaker
jaybaybaker's picture

Funny how the lemmings are always so sure about themselves.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:32 | 346073 ratava
ratava's picture

said a self assured lemming

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:52 | 346149 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

I love these guys...such easy meat for me. 

You say gold has "given back"? 

If you bought gold in 1999 you have QUADRUPled your money!

If you bought the NASDAQ in 1999 you lost HALF !

An EIGHT BAGGER!!!! of difference in performance. 

You can't call a secular bull run that has gone on for over a decade a flash in the pan. And if you combine it with the over 10 year secular bear market in equities, it all makes sense. That little runup in the dollar over the last 5 months IS A BLIP, a teenie weenie bikini when you lok at the chart going back to 1984 which shows the dollar index loosing half its value with an intact trend!!!

http://static.seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/long_dxy.png

Gold is getting scarcer as we speak since anyone trying to protect wealth is in an aggressive buying mode of physical gold. This is long term buying, not end of the world speculating. All over the globe people are seeing for themselves how tenuous a grip they have on their wealth if it is denominated in fiat currency of ANY stripe.

 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:10 | 346219 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Here Kitco has all the charts you want to see... 30 day to ten year... http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

Here is the 30 year... http://goldprice.org/30-year-gold-price-history.html

As for the 100% annual? who wasn't? making that? Twice it was blown out to over 3 years... stupid people should buy Gold who can not make money is your pitch then?

Can't find Gold, Physical? Scarcer? Running Out?

 

RUN!!!!! GODZILLA!!!!!! RUN!!!!!!!

 

Idiots... buying Gold at all time highs... ask the last idiots who did that how thier assholes feel?

 

Buy Low! Sell High! no magic...

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:36 | 346275 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

You are a freaking broken record. I love how idiots like you use the 30 year chart to just get the top of the old high in. Hey why not look at the price of gold over the last 100 years!

Didn't you also say gold was going back down to like 800 back in Jan?

What is your problem anyway. People recommend to buy gold to retain purchasing power, not as a trade. So get that fact through your head and stfu about trading, it isn't a trade to "make money" on, its a currency to store your wealth in.

/sigh

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:09 | 346351 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by Burnbright
on Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:36
#346275

You are a freaking broken record. I love how idiots like you use the 30 year chart to just get the top of the old high in. Hey why not look at the price of gold over the last 100 years!

Didn't you also say gold was going back down to like 800 back in Jan?

What is your problem anyway. People recommend to buy gold to retain purchasing power, not as a trade. So get that fact through your head and stfu about trading, it isn't a trade to "make money" on, its a currency to store your wealth in.

/sigh

 

Burnbright,

                 You are a salesman... quoting me as saying that Gold was doing what in January?

Look bottom feeder, what I say I mean and what I mean I explain thru 3rd party verifiable information.

I don't stir up a hornets nest to make a sales, I don't live in a world where ego purchases and / or fear purchases make much sense...

So, dont quote me as saying something I did not say... its bad enough your an idiot but proving yourself to be a LIAR! is not in your own best interests.

I will say it again slowly... if you review the historical data available, anywhere... Gold looks to be nearing its all time highs again... and the last time people bought at the all time high, things did not go well return wise for them...

Now, I speak plain english... I speak the truth... here I will even site the truth for you again.. http://goldprice.org/30-year-gold-price-history.html

You, LIE! You, cannot use the truth as a backstop so You spin, cajole and or worse use fear to herd people into a purchase.. other than Lie that I said something that I never said and other than the fact that you refuse to even admit the truth about Gold getting closer to the top of the top right now, in inflation adjusted dollars... well its is plain to me what kind of person you are and what you are up too. 

So, plainly... Fuck You Liar!

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 13:02 | 346509 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

Too funny!  Hey JW - if we ever square up for a pissing match, please forward me the link to this thread, first - I hate getting my ass kicked. Not that you are necessarily always right, of course. And no disrespect to burnbright.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:13 | 346378 MarketTruth
MarketTruth's picture

"Buy Low! Sell High! no magic..."

Agreed, so Mr Big Shot show us all where is the 'low' you are talking about in the past decade besides the blip in late 2008? (where many of us backed up the truck BTW)

www.kitco.com/gold_currency/charts.htm

 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 13:27 | 346681 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I was in at $600 out at $900 and chickened out and back in at $980(ish)... so 3 years of the roof is beign blown off is getting old... every fucking time Gold moves the roof is being blown off for 3 fucking years... well I have heard the roof is being blown off so many times now that I dont fucking think that the roof is going anywhere near what the salesmen say. I own Gold as a Hedge, a physical hedge... to go with my Brass, wink wink.

 

having said that... whats the risk verse the reward? at $1,250? for a pop to $5k per the 8th grade math? or the real number that all of the Governments of the World! will let it reach?

 

People who buy Gold are hedging as a rule which has changed into a panic run or flight to safety... but the Gold Salesmen in here, are not pushing numbers... they are pushing fear for the General Publics consuption, this is not the first time I have been thru this with the bottom fucking feeders.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 13:13 | 346606 jomama
jomama's picture

apparently you can't afford gold?  pick up some silver then. 

 

i'm embarassed for you watching you get up here and try to compenstate.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 13:27 | 346689 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Canary in a coal mine... how aprapos.

 

See above idiot.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:38 | 346277 AR15AU
AR15AU's picture

At this point, the lemmings are holding a few USD and the "hope" of social security and foodstamps (40 million Americans on foodstamps now).  The people holding bars of gold are an elite few. Your post is and act of desperation, and sounds like the flat out bullshit of MSNBC / CNBC.  

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:43 | 346293 Scarlo
Scarlo's picture

242k ounces only translates to roughly 300 million USD. At that bi-weekly rate, extrapolated for a year, you'd have almost $8B.  That's a drop in the bucket - I mean seriously - that's a couple quarters worth of bonuses at GS, FFS.  This might be a good opportunity to short the blip, but that's it. This isn't the final rave party before the hangover.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 13:30 | 346702 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

How dare you!!!!!

 

... Gold to the Moon Bitches!!!! and Beyondddddddd!!

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:43 | 346481 Gordon_Gekko
Gordon_Gekko's picture

You mean like Robert Prechter.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:29 | 346061 jaybaybaker
jaybaybaker's picture

There will be a good point to short in the coming days, but not yet today. I am definitely advocating selling here.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:33 | 346076 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Nice of you to drop buy and advice us all.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:13 | 346367 B9K9
B9K9's picture

Why must we feed the troll(s)? Hairy Shanker, a gross caricature of a perma-bull is gone, only to be replaced by his alter ego, gheybaybankster, the gold perma-bear.

These trolls add nothing to the discussion; they appear & incite reactions merely to satisfy their own fun & amusement.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 16:10 | 347334 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Oh you have NO IDEA what is crawling on these boards.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:37 | 346096 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Dude, this is not a day trading site.  10% of total net worth in gold has been an investment benchmark for generations.  You seem out of your depth but hey, let's celebrate what freedoms we have left, eh?  Opine and invest to the best of your abilities and may Fortune smile upon you.

When we are at Dow:Gold parity (I vote for parity at 5000) I hope you have all the wealth you desire.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:39 | 346107 Nothingman
Nothingman's picture

You're looking at precious metals from a trader's perspective.  Most of us own PM's as a hedge against the current policies of currency debasement, not as an item that we are looking to buy on every dip and sell at every peak.  There may be a few who are expecting to "get rich" by buying gold at $1200+/oz, but most have a longer term outlook than that.  You may be right that it is typically best to move against the crowd when trading, but for most of us, physical gold is a vehicle for long term preservation of wealth.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:59 | 346173 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

a lot of people got interested in understanding their wealth through day trading..  it was a 'fun' way to learn. (even if you lost.. like gambling can be)  eventually, if they have any savings at all, they will then learn how best to earn money with it.. via divys usually (wow my money sat there and it gave ME a check!)

 

once they then realize that fiat money is built to evaporate, they quietly realize PMs don't and thus they are finally knighted

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:54 | 346155 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

You're thinking like a daytrader and this is a SECULAR BULL run. Anyone who's bought gold in the last 10 years has seen doubles, triple and quadruples. The long term trend in gold has been steady up, whereas for the dollar over the last 30 years it's been straight down.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:56 | 346167 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

*troll*

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:42 | 346290 AR15AU
AR15AU's picture

No shit, sherlock...  markets fluctuate...  and if you want to take the side of the bet that says green shoots are coming, government is now competent, etc, be my guest.  Try to scalp that 5%.  Your timing better be fucking perfect, and you better pray to God that nothing unexpected happens while in that trade.  Myself, I'm not a fancy man.  I just go long and strong the yellowish Obama kryptonite and call it good.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:55 | 346324 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

The radical fiat bugs are out in force this week, pouncing on any ZH thread about gold.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:32 | 346444 Popo
Popo's picture

That was a comment worthy of a Yahoo board...

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:23 | 346036 Raymond K Hassel
Raymond K Hassel's picture

>>So when the dollar was said to be at its end, Americans scrambled into gold. Now that the euro is said to be at its end, all European lemmings scramble into gold.

I have 2 friends who have so far scrambled for Gold - I'm guessing its not too different in Europe - of course, those 2 plus myself have not been purchasing in small quantities.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:39 | 346106 rich_maverick
rich_maverick's picture

When gold reaches $6000, I will consider it "fair value".  When it reaches $10000, I will consider it overvalued (assuming the US government does not do something really, really stupid) and then and only then will I be dumping.

Until $10k, staying long in my gold...  Folks do not understand how stagflation works.  Raw input costs (like commodities) go up in price and businesses are unable to pass along the costs to the outputs.  So, economy goes into the toilet and hard assets go up in value.  Paper burns.

Rich

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:40 | 346109 rich_maverick
rich_maverick's picture

When gold reaches $6000, I will consider it "fair value".  When it reaches $10000, I will consider it overvalued (assuming the US government does not do something really, really stupid) and then and only then will I be dumping.

Until $10k, staying long in my gold...  Folks do not understand how stagflation works.  Raw input costs (like commodities) go up in price and businesses are unable to pass along the costs to the outputs.  So, economy goes into the toilet and hard assets go up in value.  Paper burns.

Rich

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:44 | 346125 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Another stupid deflationist.  So when is it coming?  I keep waiting, and keep seeing gold go up, and even BS measures like the CPI going up.

Keep waiting, and getting poorer, like the rest of the deflationists.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:04 | 346194 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

is everyone here just used to simple inverse charts?

the dollar CAN be deflating vs many things but Gold and other items can still out run that.  If the dollar wasn't deflating, then Gold would be shooting up even faster 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:41 | 346288 GS is short Gold
GS is short Gold's picture

exactly, why the constant fighting for inflation vs deflation? we are in deflation, but gold was and is so undervalued it's just playing catch up. 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:08 | 346363 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

When you get this point, you should sit back and be stunned. No more dollar up gold down. Dollar still has a leash on gold, at least in terms of fictional paper exchange values. It's just running away...

Pop out of 2d thinking if you can. Not graphs, parabolas, strange attractors, chaos.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:42 | 346464 Popo
Popo's picture

..."Another stupid deflationist..."

Huh? Another person who has no idea what deflation is.

We're living through unprecedented credit destruction. There's a historic conflagration of paper of all kinds underway. Unemployment is skyrocketing. We have a massive and historically unprecedented overhang of manufacturing capacity. And you're asking "when is deflation coming?" It's here, bro. And it's been here for a while. You're looking at it, and you're obviously unable to identify it.

M3 is decreasing. Not increasing.

And by the way... you realize that gold went up during the Great Depression, right? And you realize that was a deflationary period, right?

It sounds like you're looking at gold prices for an indication of vector in the money supply. That would be a mistake.

I'm not long, or short gold. But inflationists are essentially betting we can repeat 2003-2008 all over again. Good luck with that.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:56 | 346162 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Helicopter Ben is getting pretty pissed because Europe is stealing his spotlight. He'll find a way to get it back!!

IN BEN WE TRUST!

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:56 | 346164 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Ammo is what's next.

Like I even had to say it.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:06 | 346200 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

who are you shooting and how you getting rid of all those dead bodies that will be spawning the plague at your doorsteps?

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:36 | 346276 RobD
RobD's picture

Lye is you friend when dealing with the dead.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:07 | 346207 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

All I got is a single shot top-break shotgun from way back.  So, are you saying I may want to upgrade soon?  or get good at reloading quickly? 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 19:01 | 347758 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

You need an 8-shell Mossberg 500 w/ pistol grip my friend. But that's if you plan on hiding inside for them to come to you. Not very wise. Better to take the fight to them with a SOCOM 16 M1A for CQB and long distance.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:07 | 346208 sheeple
sheeple's picture

Time to go long the euro and short gold.

 

WUT DA FUCK ...

 

Because we are in deflation, folks.

Credit contraction, cost inflation and everything is deflating against gold

 

 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:10 | 346215 Mercury
Mercury's picture

Time to go long the euro and short gold.

 

And that trade is....sold to you!

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:57 | 346333 Strider52
Strider52's picture

Geithner: "Sir, the price of gold is surging."

Bernanke: <SPLORT!> "Dammit Timmy, I just yakked my breakfast! Say, what the hell is this shit?"

Geithner:"It's Kreplach sir. It's Siberian Husky dog eggs."

Bernanke: "What happened to the Beluga caviar??"

Geithner: "The volcano, Sir..."

Bernanke: "What kind of gold do we have to move around to kill the price?"

Geithner: "Almost nothing left, Sir. We're outta ammo.."

Bernanke: "What about Fort Knox?"

Geithner: "Ninety-percent Tungsten, Sir."

Bernanke: "How bout the twin towers stuff?"

Geithner: "We owed it to the Saudis to keep oil low."

Bernanke: "OK, what about the IMF? That always works..."

Geithner: "IMF hasn't really had any gold since 1971, we just spread the rumor."

Bernanke: "What are we gonna do??"

Geithner: "Shut up and eat your Kreplach, Sir."

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:19 | 346395 aerojet
aerojet's picture

My take on the whole mess is that when the G8 or the G12 got together to discuss how to deal with the disaster they decided on a round-robin currency hit so that each area would take a hit in some linear fashion versus all at once.  I would not buy gold at the top, you're just a fool if you do  that.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:29 | 346063 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

Suspicion toward a currency, once awakened, develops insomnia. - James Dines.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:55 | 346156 Roy Bush
Roy Bush's picture

304 million dollars worth of gold and the mint is "depleted"!!!  ha ha ha ha ha!

Sorry, this ship just left the harbor!  Gold is just starting its run-up!

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:55 | 346159 Roy Bush
Roy Bush's picture

304 million dollars worth of gold and the mint is "depleted"!!!  ha ha ha ha ha!

Sorry, this ship just left the harbor!  Gold is just starting its run-up!

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:12 | 345993 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Demand, meet supply.  Now let's find a price.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:10 | 346216 sheeple
sheeple's picture

Not even close, wait till you see the asian herds...

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:26 | 346254 Mesquite
Mesquite's picture

Their gov has already been telling (warning) their people to buy gold, and silver...!! 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:12 | 345994 qussl3
qussl3's picture

Is time to wait for a pullback to buy?

 

Panic buying by the man in the street (coins) shouldnt be short term bullish right?

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:14 | 346002 maff
maff's picture

sweet

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:15 | 346008 ratava
ratava's picture

2009 was the pullback, another one could be from 5000 to 3000.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:22 | 346031 jaybaybaker
jaybaybaker's picture

In your dreams ... ;-)

Did you also think the dollar was dead when it was approaching 72 on the DXY. Where do we stand now?

I advocated going long the dollar then, and now I am advocating going long the euro, since everyone in lemmingland agrees the euro is dead (while it is at 1.26 coincidently).

And when there is a frenzy in buying something, it's always a good idea to go short. Nothing ever changes, so I am advocating going short gold at these levels.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:24 | 346038 qussl3
qussl3's picture

I echo your sentiments but I like gold too much to actually go short, there is the very real possiblity of it gapping up to infinity in a reverse of the DOW 1000 episode (no sellers only bidders).

 

I am waiting to buy more, but nibbling on the way up.

 

 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:30 | 346068 Raymond K Hassel
Raymond K Hassel's picture

>>Did you also think the dollar was dead when it was approaching 72 on the DXY. Where do we stand now?

simply stated, much worse than before as measured by the POG. :)

 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:39 | 346103 macroeconomist
macroeconomist's picture

Now once again, some are in need of epistemological education : Just because something happened before does not mean that it is going to happen again, which is even true for physical phenomenon: Just because the sun rose this morning does not imply that it will rise tomorrow. There are events that changes rules, regimes, whatever you call them. Backward looking analysis and induction may lead to catastrophic results at these moments...

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:06 | 346201 Ataraxia
Ataraxia's picture

Exactly the reasoning the banks used to repeal Glass/Steagall. This time, it's different!

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:33 | 346079 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

When Dow/Gold Ratio = 1, then I will short gold.

Until then, ignore all the noise.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:34 | 346087 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Debt laden currencies that add more debt (couple Trillion more here and there)...just doesn't seem like a rational investment to me....but that is just me. The bailouts just push the mess farther down the street...nothing is being changed. Same people, same wasteful programs, same expectations from the citizens. Somewhere something has to be radically cut...otherwise the currency becomes useless (though technically in some places it is...just noone wants to be the first to say it).

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:35 | 346092 ratava
ratava's picture

yes, governments print money to go long their own junk and spillover money props up Euro. however, the same spillover money also props up gold. so while i agree Eur could bounce from here, physical gold will most likely correlate with that move and make new highs.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:39 | 346108 tmosley
tmosley's picture

The dollar doesn't buy more than it did when it was at 72.  All the fiat currencies have jumped out of a plane with no parachute.  It doesn't really matter which one is falling the slowest.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:12 | 346372 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

My analogy is the spraying of an apartment building for cockroaches.  If you start spraying at the bottom floor, they all run to the top floor to die.  USD just happens to be the top floor of this particular apartment.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:58 | 346168 mephisto
mephisto's picture

The euro isnt remotely cheap at 1.26 when you look at multi-year timescales. Its not pricing like a dead currency.

Contrarian trades are usually not a bad short term ideas - but I wouldnt expect a huge long term move up. That would mean European politicians have successfully controlled the FX market - I dont think that ever happens. 

So rather than try to buy the low, why not wait and sell the bounce?

Currently the long gold trade is mostly also a short politician trade, and as such should also work in the medium and long term.

So rather than try to short the top, dont you think its better to follow the long term trend and buy the dip?

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:01 | 346184 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Look at the long term chart: dollar has been in an unbroken 30 year downtrend. It's worth less than half it's 1984 peak (dollar index). 

http://static.seekingalpha.com/wp-content/seekingalpha/images/long_dxy.png

After relentless Fed printing and the tsunami of printing in 2008-2010 there's only 1 clear direction for the dollar. And that's if the political winds don't kick up more than they already have.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:04 | 346347 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

And this is why the price of oil is not $30/bbl anymore.

 

 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:26 | 346255 merehuman
merehuman's picture

The printed dollar is a mere Promise.

Gold and silver are real,  now quit trying to sell the dollar like a used car.

The tires are falling off and no new paint is going to cover the sound of the failing engine.

Jaybay , sounds like you are doing a great job, atta boy browny

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:47 | 346306 GS is short Gold
GS is short Gold's picture

news flash buddy, noone gives a fuck what you're advocating.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 13:12 | 346604 hound dog vigilante
hound dog vigilante's picture

The $USD is the "last fiat standing" yet it cannot (and will not) push past 82-83 on the DXY.

After the next failed US-led military expedition in Eurasia (following Israell/Iran conflict), the asian currencies will begin their climb to the top of the mountain, and the $USD will break below 72 & 62 on the DXY.

Good luck to the S-T & day traders... you playing a fools game. The L-T trend is clear and unstoppable. Why anyone would risk trading now when the long side is absolutely, inevitably being fulfilled is beyond me.

The $USD is levitating on the fiction of US military hegemony. Asian currencies are filling the void with actual, tangible productive capacity and assets. Thus, the long-term trend has been cast...

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 13:18 | 346636 hound dog vigilante
hound dog vigilante's picture

P.S.  gold will perform spectacularly thoughout the S-T & L-T.  Certain leading asian currencies will make gold a cornerstone of their currency and monetary policy, which will only hasten asia's ascendency.  Some small western regime's may also leverage physical gold to back their currency, but asia is the next godfather and western gov's will be merely capo's, at best...

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:17 | 345997 Mako
Mako's picture

"When global governments refuse to act responsibly toward their currency"

Sorry, but if the government hadn't intervened the system would not even exist.  There is no out.  All you are doing is playing the blame game.  Gold is not going to save you, tanks don't give a shit if you have gold in your pocket or in your teeth when they fire on you. 

If you think this blog is going to just keep running when the credit system collapses you are in for one rude ass awakening.

Humans are as stupid as a virus, they use the same equation then are surprised when they are wiped form the petri-dish.  If they and you were responsible, you wouldn't have started this system and continue to support the system. 

"There is no out, there is only in"

 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:18 | 346021 Janice
Janice's picture

Tanks may not give a shit....but the person who finds your body and searches your pocket may : )

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:20 | 346028 Mako
Mako's picture

They might, if they can find the body.  In the 40s, they removed your teeth before throwing you in the oven.   Gold didn't save anyone then and it ain't going to save anyone this time either.

Those people in India will be starving to death in the big cities there, they all have gold. 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:29 | 346062 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

The cheese is sliding off your cracker.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:52 | 346150 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

lolz...perfect!

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:29 | 346064 Janice
Janice's picture

I beg to differ as I personally know people who relocated to the USA via their gold holdings during the Nazi Germany regime.  As with all investments, getting in is the easy part, it's the knowing when to get out that separates the wheat from the chaff. 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:42 | 346118 Mako
Mako's picture

Yeah, this time coming to the US will be like jumping out of the fire into the frying pan... the credit system will completely collapse this time.  

"there is no out, there is only in"

 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:15 | 346227 Janice
Janice's picture

If the credit system collapses, what's left?  Gold, silver and old silver US coins.

South America calls for a hottie like me with bullion to burn.  Go riot in the streets, I'm going south!

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:01 | 346343 schoolsout
schoolsout's picture

how hot are we talking here?  I just might join ya....young, 27 year old in search of cougars and freedom....

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 13:02 | 346559 Janice
Janice's picture

Given a sufficient supply of bullion....hot becomes a relative term.  Not bad to look at, but you'd have to snuff out Mr. Janice Cougar :o

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:44 | 346128 Nothingman
Nothingman's picture

+1 That was exactly my response to "gold didn't save anyone then."

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:59 | 346171 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Nailed on the head.

The universality of gold is worthwhile as long as there are societies to relocate.

Present days are characterized by deep gap between different countries/areas of the world.

People surmising that the US (North America), Europe, Japan, part of Asia are going to fall because of fiat currencies should go to the end of their thinking process and write them off as possible societies to support their lifestyle.

As you write off the highest consuming places in the world, you have left with areas of the world where gold wont buy you much because there is not much to buy.

Hopefully for these people, there wont be any collapse and they are going to be bailed out of their poor decisions by their group.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:34 | 346080 Missing_Link
Missing_Link's picture

Nonsense.  Gold saved a ton of people in the 1940s, especially the gold-owners who also owned guns (and knew how to hide their gold).

Where do you think the German "economic miracle" came from?  A lot of it came from gold (tragically, it was gold that had been looted from its proper owners on their way to the concentration camps, but the fact is that it did improve Germany's economic condition).

Indians won't starve.  Only the poor, who don't have gold, will starve.  The rich will do fine.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:38 | 346100 Alienated Serf
Alienated Serf's picture

Thanks for paying attention; the rise of the Nazi's was predicated on hyperinflation and complete liquidation of gold reserves.  Stealing from the unwanted and then waging war to sieze gold reserves from other central banks.  It was all a gold grab. 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:48 | 346138 Mako
Mako's picture

And what happened?  Collapse of the credit system, collapse of production, collapse of demand.  

There wasn't foodlines in the US because of the lack of capacity to produce food.  No shortage of land, no shortage of equipment, no shortage of labor... yet there was food lines.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:06 | 346202 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Exactly

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:39 | 346284 Nothingman
Nothingman's picture

There wasn't foodlines in the US because of the lack of capacity to produce food.  No shortage of land, no shortage of equipment, no shortage of labor... yet there was food lines.

 

Ever heard of the Dust Bowl Drought?  I'd say that had a significant effect on agriculture in the 1930's US.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 16:36 | 347389 Sespian
Sespian's picture

Uh...take a drive through California's agricultural kingdom lately?  I-5 from Sacramento to Bakersfield will take you back in time.  It is a modern day dust bowl...no water.  Thanks Congress!

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 19:06 | 347772 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Yep. A lot of people starved because of that. And an even higher percentage will starve because farming is not in an urbanite's skill set. Not to mention it takes petro to keep our machines running. Small scale or bust.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:54 | 346320 ranrun
ranrun's picture

there was too much capcity.  lookup the AAA.  they had thousands of bureaucrats micro managing farmer telling them what they could grow and how much.  i've also read they slaughtered tons of pigs to drive prices up.  basically the NRA for farmers.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soil_Conservation_and_Domestic_Allotment_Act

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:00 | 346335 Mako
Mako's picture

They were dumping grain at sea in Europe to get the price up, while at the same time people on shore were starving and going without. 

People just don't get it, there is no out. 

Once the credit system goes, that's it, production will go with it.  Most people have never sat down and really reflected on what "credit" is and isn't, and how it currently fuels production.   They will once it collapses and liquidation begins.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:08 | 346361 ranrun
ranrun's picture

crazy i've never heard the grain thing.  it is amazing how much government hates consumers.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:18 | 346393 Mako
Mako's picture

The problem is, there was no more consumer when the credit system collapses.

It's all based on a lie, once the lie is gone then humans faces the dire Truth of the situation.  It's the same reason Japan has been sucking off the rest of the world's demand for 20+ years, it was over in Japan 20 years ago, they still don't want to face the Truth.  Either way the Truth will eventually come out and they will fully collapse with the rest.

 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:32 | 346416 Blindweb
Blindweb's picture

You missed my point on LTCM a couple days ago... My point was that no matter how correct your math is it doesn't matter if you miss an overarching variable.  We all know about credit collapse  yet we still disagree with you...I wonder why... Simultaneously as credit collapses the ponzi paper gold schemes will collapse.  They are mutually intertwined.

 

I put my extra resources into gold.  In my free time I study and practice organic farming ,wind and solar, and various survivalism ideas.  

You don't get it.  You make overgeneralized statements that are not helpful.  Some people gold didn't help save their lives during WWII, but some it did.  What percent of the population actually died during WWII? 4%?  There's always a way of increasing your probability of getting out.  It's about putting yourself in the best position you can.    

 

Anyways look into the limits of growth, peak oil, resilient communities, Tainter on complexity of society.  Ask youself why is credit collapsing now...There are many folk out there who get it.  Particularly look into resilient communities. 

 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 14:21 | 346930 aerojet
aerojet's picture

I think it is *you* who is missing that one over-arching variable.  Want me to tell you what it is?  You are spending all your time looking inward, making preparations for organic farming and all that other bs while forgetting that all around you are masses and masses if ignorant people that cannot be controlled.  You don't have enough bullets.  They will get you.  So there's no reason to bother with the rest of it, it's all a waste of time because you won't be able to stay in any one place if the balloon goes up.  You can't fix stupid and you can't prepare for a massive social change because you don't know how it is going to play out.

 

Millions of people died in WWII, just not in the US. 

 

 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 16:26 | 347366 nuinut
nuinut's picture

If you ain't part of the solution, you are part of the problem.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 19:07 | 347778 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Classic troll speech. Gracias, por nada.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:56 | 346533 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

People just don't get it, there is no out. 

The rest of what you wrote just disproved this thesis Mako. Out of the many jackasses that post here, just to be turds, I think you mean well and hate to see people lying to themselves about how bad this is. I agree it is really fucking bad. I think you are also in a trap that is a formidable mental construction. We are all in it.

Credit system is a social construction. Dumping the grain at sea when people are starving is a decision that did not have to happen. It is a choice. CHOICE MAKO. CHOICE. Soak that into your bones.

I am not saying it is easy. I am not saying that fighting avarice, ignorance, and apathy, is not an uphill, almost insurmountable battle. But there are other choices to be made. We can make them, that is the out

The only way I would have to agree with you on the "there is no out" is if we go too far with the environment (which I am in fear, as we speak, that we may have [oil spilling out of the bowels of Mother Earth herself, making the system go septic]).

Are we up against inflated expectations for life on earth? Yes. Do people change easily? No. Can there be a way to produce basic goods that meet the needs of everyone without using as much energy to do it as we have? YES. Will we make it... Hell dude, I just don't know. But I am not willing to vote an emphatic no on that one, at all.  

Peace brother man.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:03 | 346346 schoolsout
schoolsout's picture

I'm pretty sure the gov't came in and destroyed some "food" during all of that.

 

Hey, those living in urban areas, I feel for ya....for us out in the country on the ocean or other area food can be harvested, band together.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:05 | 346198 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

Correct. My own family witnessed this. Nazi Germany impounded any gold they could steal, including from banks, central banks and families in conquered countries. 

IE: It was blood for gold. They sent their German youth to die so that gold could be secured.

They found their gold store, including caches that were hidden away. It was all traced and found. Most of it was returned to the original owners.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:19 | 346241 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

the selective memory of history of the Nazi era here is telling..  ignore all the present day environmental conditions that led to those fanatical actions at your peril.  Newton's 3rd law guys

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:46 | 346113 Mako
Mako's picture

"Indians won't starve.  Only the poor, who don't have gold, will starve.  The rich will do fine."

That's a pipe dream, that is why the credit system exists, all the morons couldn't afford what they wanted.   Sorry, people in Europe were starving to death with gold in their pocket and in their teeth.  Production went down and down and down.

Credit gets you food into Walmart, you ran out of gold to run the system centuries ago.

Once the credit system collapses you think you are going to have products at Walmart swapping for gold?  Hahaha, you couldn't get any of those products to the shelves without credit. 

Let me see you think you are going to cash out and get a new Porsche off the line.  Hahaha  sorry not without a credit system.  There won't be any production line, it will stop completely.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 10:46 | 346134 Nothingman
Nothingman's picture

uh, what's that smell?  ...dude, your hair is on fire.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:41 | 346285 mnevins2
mnevins2's picture

"Once the credit system collapses you think you are going to have products at Walmart swapping for gold?  Hahaha, you couldn't get any of those products to the shelves without credit."

Mako, I had precisely this conversation (with more examples/depth) with an acquaintance and HUGE gold bug about 3 years ago - before SHTF.

His main argument was that "fiat money" was worthless, etc and while I've later come to conclude that his thesis regarding "fiat money" is valid, I'd always come back to the "medium of exchange" issue - and how in the world could our society function on the "gold and lead exchange"? Do we purchase gas this way? Food? Medicine? How do those items even get from production to our bomb shelter or whatever?

A good friend of mine is an ER doc and when he asked me about precious metals I told him to instead stock up on anti-biotics and meds - because his "gold" is his brain and ability to practice medicine.

Lastly, I always do think of the Nazis and,  more currently, Rhodesia. In the latter, the farms, etc. were VERY well fortified, etc - but were no match for Mugabe, etc. Add in a few sniper rifles and you get the picture.

Yes, I'm VERY concerned about the financial mess of today and, sadly, see no way out. Not even gold. I also see no historical precedent - not even gold.

Do you now wonder why I've encouraged my two children, 16 and 19, to enroll in the military (USMA/ROTC/OCS)? The training  might come in handy.

Yes, I love the ZH people and the site - I honestly consider the vast majority to be far smarter than me. But "gold/silver and medium of exchange?" Don't see it. Especially because there actually isn't that much of it to adequately serve that purpose.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 11:52 | 346317 Mako
Mako's picture

When I say gold will not save you, it's a generalization.   Will someone exchange you a piece of bread for your gold coin?  Sure, that might hold off starvation for one more day.   However, at the end of the day... someone is going to have to go.   Once the credit system collapses, liquidation will have to begin.

As the system starts to collapse further, more and more production will go offline.   Once it fully collapses, sure you might have some temporary benefit for holding gold, silver, or chicken wire, heck I don't know.   However, over time during the down phase... you will eventually have less and less production.  

If gold were the savior of the world, humans would have never started borrowing and lending at a rate of interest.  

I like the site, but people are still misguided by why they think the world is at this point, and about getting out of this. 

There is no easy way out, there was an easy way in.  

 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:07 | 346360 schoolsout
schoolsout's picture

so, you are basically stating all humanity dies because of the flawed system we operate on, correct?  Seems to be what you are trying to get across...

 

what do you think gov'ts will use for money?  I'd say gold/silver have a great chance at being included so when they revalue gold for the amount of fiat out there, blam, the one ounce coin is convertable into a larger amount of fiat...and fiat is somewhat controlled until politicians decide to plunder the wealth again.

 

I'm not sure why you are so hung up on nothing saving anyone as history shows that people survive and new/old systems of doing things are brought forth.

 

I don't think anyone is going to be biting off bits of gold for bread, but the gold will hold value as the paper will not. 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:29 | 346419 Mako
Mako's picture

"so, you are basically stating all humanity dies because of the flawed system we operate on, correct?  Seems to be what you are trying to get across..."

You basically get it.  The system has been stealing from the future at an exponential rate to sustain it's own existence.  What happens when that system no longer exists?  How do all those products get to Walmart? 

"I don't think anyone is going to be biting off bits of gold for bread, but the gold will hold value as the paper will not."

For that to happen, production would have to grow exponentially grow and gold would have to exponentially grow with it. Good luck with that.  Basically you have gone to the max ie top takes 60-80 years... after 55 years you are on death watch... the power of compounding... once you peak, collapse, liquidate until you reach the bottom.   Waves or cycles.

"what do you think gov'ts will use for money?  I'd say gold/silver have a great chance at being included so when they revalue gold for the amount of fiat out there, blam, the one ounce coin is convertable into a larger amount of fiat...and fiat is somewhat controlled until politicians decide to plunder the wealth again."

YOu ran out of gold to further expand the system centuries ago.   Who knows what people will trade or barter with each other with, gold, silver, water, food, land, chicken wire... either way without credit, production will go down from today's levels drastically.

 

 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:38 | 346467 schoolsout
schoolsout's picture

Yea, we don't have enough gold at $1250 an oz to sustain current prices, but econ 101 teaches us about equilibrium

 

and doesn't technology drive down prices and efficiency up if markets are allowed to naturally function?

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 13:10 | 346596 Tortfeasor
Tortfeasor's picture

Gold is a store of wealth.

Not the only store, of course, but a damn good one.  If you assume the system cannot continue on its own, and you believe in a transition to a new system, then logically you should be looking for a way to carry over some wealth from the old system to the new one.

I doubt that, once we get to wherever we're going, that I'll be able to trade my old FRNs for land/vehicles/other high priced necessities.  I own PMs, I own guns, and I'm learning to grow as much of my own food as possible.  The goal is to: 1) survive the collapse; 2) survive the transition; 3) thrive in the new way of things.

Gold will be worth SOMETHING, which is more than I can say for my Bennie-fun-bucks.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:29 | 346432 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

A good friend of mine is an ER doc and when he asked me about precious metals I told him to instead stock up on anti-biotics and meds - because his "gold" is his brain and ability to practice medicine.

Okay, that's good and true. Certain skill sets will be a golden goose in a collapsed society.

But going back to the "I won't have time to barter because I'll be watching CNBC" Problem. The supply chain will break down completely. Whatever you don't have on hand will have to be sought out in your area, based on available modes of transportation and communication. Gotta Hummer? Awesome! What about da gas? Find a good parking spot for the next who knows how many years - what you didn't store in advance won't be available. You can't compare the USA to Zimbabwe or Argentina. This is worldwide collapse. No more UN food shipments. No more "save the day" banking deals. It's every man for himself. You think fire/police/emergency crews are going to hang out to save the day when they can't get paid and their family is at risk back at home? We are far to advanced to survive without constant paychecks. Cell phone, cable TV, internet, utilities, car payment, gas. If they even devalue the FRN by a fraction the suburbs will turn into boonies. Who will pay for gas @ $4.00+, let alone double that. We are right on the edge.

But I'm in the goddamn city! How can you tell me there won't be any gas?

Okay, so when our currency (the Federal Reserve Note; aka (shamefully) the dollar) is no longer generally accepted the entire distribution chain in the US will end. Breadlines? Fuck that. Crack addicts are not going to wait their turn in massive lines. You'll get beaten, robbed, raped, and/or murdered (not necessarily in that order) on the way home after getting your goods. So it's just not going to happen. It won't. People will be busy burning down their own neighborhoods, pulling errant drivers out of the cars, "give me yo' money punk". This isn't the movies:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tgiR04ey7-M

Imagine '92 Los Angeles nationwide (it kind of was)! But with no end in sight. Just like the Euro bailout. No end in sight. Only down, down, down into the abyss. Denial, denial, denial. It's over. Only a matter of time.

Get what you need to survive. Imagine empty supermarkets. Imagine no heat/electricity/running water. You know how many people are going to die from dysentery just because they keep shitting in the toilet hoping the water will come back on? Sanitation will go out the window.

Gold and silver will be for trade among those that appreciate the historical value and are willing to trade something they might actually need for it: wheat, toilet paper, gasoline, tweezers, tampons, bullets, etc. And all these items will also be forms of currency. All of this will be in your local area - and you will have to seek out who has what. It will probably take 2 - 3 years for things to stabilize. But probably longer. Europe was in bad shape during and after the war. The USA is far removed from that kind self-sustainability.

Look, I don't want to sound condescending, because I'm trying to provide perspective (though dire!). How will there be any system after a currency collapse? Sure, they might hand out ration cards for a while, but it won't take long for people to go from confusion to rage. Violent retribution as an everyday mentality. The only control the gov't has is by illusion - just like the fiat currency in your wallet. It's all illusion.

Mako's right - you can't eat gold (and tanks don't discriminate); but you can save it for later! Unless you have the ability to produce your own food you are dead. What sits in supermarkets right now is the effort of last minute production to keep "just in time" inventories that are shipped shocking distances to and fro.

I am of no high education and wit myself, but this nation is already on the edge of panic. It won't be Kumbaya. Another natural disaster is about to blow and it's the latino population that is now explaining their plans for violence:

http://p.castfire.com/oglmm/video/306419/306419_2010-05-06-191041.flv

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6b6OcO3DoZQ

Plenty more to be found on the web. We are beyond the hope of social cohesiveness.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:34 | 346448 Mako
Mako's picture

Correct, everything will breakdown. 

For a product to get from point A to point M, through points B-L, well it's all credit based and/or indirectly credit based.

Demand is based off of stealing from the future at an exponential rate.

The bubble has been on going since our grandparent's grandparents were even a thought. 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 12:58 | 346540 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

We are the Northern Front...inside the belly of the Beast...we are revolutionary students..."

More incitement to violence:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGqPo5ofk0s

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 13:44 | 346771 mnevins2
mnevins2's picture

WaterWings, good addition to the "debate." My point by using Rhodesia as an example is that, in a certain way, the farmers represent what many posters here rhetorically state is their objective: growing their own food on their own land and defending themselves, etc. Well, in Rhodesia, they were even more fortified than a few people like this AND had the (minority) govt on its side.

But, despite their community-based militia programs, they were vastly outnumbered and isolated - and picked off one by one.

I do NOT see any way out of this credit/debt trap - and creating more debt to service debt doesn't seem like such a great "plan." Which is why I write of "no way out."

Now, having written this, I'm hopeful that the genuinely bright minds on this site DO have some hopeful/constructive comments other than "gold bitches" - which, like Mako has repeatedly noted, does more than a few flaws.

Do we have the political courage to address this societal issue? Do we agree that municipal pensions are a good place to start in addressing this crisis? They obviously represent part of the model which which otherwise lead to collapse. But how do we do this?

In May of 2007 I sold all of our equity holdings - I thought that the logic of "housing to the moon" was insane - based upon my experience as a mortgage banker/banker since 1986 and knowing "the law of large numbers." As the rest of the story began to unfold, I told my wife that "this is good news - because it will lead to the necessary adjustments/cleansing of the crap that has been building up over the years."

Alright, I think that my "concerns" have been borne out, and, slowly, municipal govts ARE dealing with these problems. But not national govts. Yet.

If I wasn't still hopeful, I'd be up all night (aka, the Brian Williams model!). "Gold" may provide a short-term panacea, but, sorry, I can't grow food in my back yard and if my kids were starving - I'd find a way to obtain it from those who have it - and I don't think that any "Alamo" approach is the solution. Sorry.

Any thoughts? Am I delusional? I've been called worse - :)!

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 14:47 | 347061 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Glad you got out when you could! And not delusional. I think the main issue is getting Americans to realize that they accepted the lies for so many years instead of having the courage long before. You can't eat lies, so I am afraid we will have to eat crow until we can reach a point of sustainability.

Unfortunately this is where I get very pessimistic. I see Rhodesia here in the states. Small, well-defended communities are the key. Fortunately there is a lot more real estate for spreading out and starving "bandits". We shall see, but with 40,000,000 expecting free food every week I can't see how we'll make it out with half the population we have now - and that would be optimistic.

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 14:40 | 347026 aerojet
aerojet's picture

This is pure idiocy, brought to you by someone above the age of 50, I'll bet. The Boomers *want* a collapse, they can't stand a world that they aren't in and some of you are getting completely unhinged!  If you're not over age 50, I recommend you get some meds asap before you kill someone over something stupid.

 

Wed, 05/12/2010 - 14:51 | 347071 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

I'm sorry the lessons of history have not worked their way into your worldview - not all of us paid very much attention in school. It is a common trait among those in a decadent society. I wish you the best, and that you would read the blog articles and chew for a while instead of just commenting.

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