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Paul Tudor Jones: "Bear Market Rally"
The man drinking beers in advance of trading billions of [you name it] in 1987, has issued some warnings for the market. From Bloomberg:
Slowing growth in China and the return of front-page stories on swine flu may be “further catalysts for global equity markets to pause in September,” the Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm said in an Aug. 3 client letter, a copy of which was obtained by Bloomberg News.
Tudor said the 47 percent gain in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index of the largest U.S. companies since March 9, when it fell to a 12-year low, is a “bear-market rally.” The index topped 1,000 for the first time in nine months this week after companies reported better-than-expected profits.
“Impressive counter-trend rallies are a feature, not an oddity, of secular bear markets,” Tudor said. “We are not inclined to aggressively chase the market here. Many doubts remain about the sustainability of this recovery, most prominently the weakness of household income growth.”
However, when 19 year old have taken over market making in every stock with a short interest of more than 5%, who really cares what Paul has to say.
Some more insights from Jones on the future direction of the dollar:
Tudor said it expects the U.S. dollar to fall by the end of the year as money managers diversify their currency reserves. The dollar advanced 0.4 percent to $1.4341 per euro after touching $1.4447 yesterday, the weakest level since Dec. 18.
“Reserve accumulation and diversification trends will be persistent and mutually reinforcing the direction of the U.S. dollar,” Tudor said.
After today, it will just have more room to fall.
hat tip Taggart
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yeah right, ZH is now 50% underwater, going for 100 when we reach 1250. Time to join the party, stop fighting the tape.
PTJ is the only guy you should listen to. He is freakishly correct - you know there are guys like this, it's tough to take, but somehow they are just always right. PTJ is more intelligent than every investor in the world combined. I'm I'm not joking.
I'm going on vacation now, and I will be back when the Dow hits 7500
He's undoubtedly right in the long term.
In the very short term, the market is rising and looks set to continue that on Monday.
Don't fight the tape, and don't shoot til you can see the whites of their eyes.
Maybe PTJ can tell us which currencies he is going to diversify into. Maybe the real or the pakistani rupee or the yuan or the dirham. BAAAHHAAAAAAAAAAAA
I don't buy into listening to PTJ. First of all the guy's video's appear on youtube for no apparent reason. Somehow he warns about the 1987 crash, although he says it would happen in 1988..
Then we have created publicity when his videos are removed from youtube.. And now info on his bearish views somehow miraculously leak on bloomberg.
I call this BS - PTJ is long and he is manipulating the markets. That's a common strategy used by hedge fund managers to move the market their way.
wow
that's all it is about to you - "riding the tape" ?
your mindset is the reason why government sachs gets away with their blatant scheme of rape and pillage. you suck.
Well you really have two choices, don't you? You can either go with the market direction and make money, or go against it and lose money.
Shorting a bull market or going long in a bear market may be the "moral" thing to do in some circumstances but you're not going to be able to change much of anything by sending yourself to the poorhouse.
Urgent heads up: Looking at AIG's chart the next level of resistance is around $150.
Now, where did I find that worm hole?
Not sure what kind of chart you're looking at but I see some likely congestion in the low 40s.
I meant 250; didn't take into account the reverse split! I'd be a buyer dude!
gotta fly!
History oftentimes repeats itself, just not in exactly the same way ...
I am sure he is right. It is just a bitch to be right and get hosed. Wait until the end of the month when Eraser Head will no longer be manipulating the market.
lol that's the exact same name I called him when I first saw him, but the name never took because no one appears to know who Eraserhead is.
Eraserhead- 70s late night movie anti-hero=brilliant
"It is just a bitch to be right and get hosed."
Maybe you don't understand what 'being right' means.
Wow things must be bad for PTJ to mention swine flu.
here's a little advice-buy some purell and keep your powder dry.
Talk is cheap boss. Tudor is sharp.
And rich, very, very rich. And he didn't inherit his wealth.
Indeed, and he made it all off of hapless saps willing to pay him 2/20 for novel idea of letting him guess with their money. Hedge fund guys (nay, anyone who fleeces investors with crystal ball gazing) are indistinguishable from GS guys in function to society beyond personal greed. Let's hire more of them anyway! Oh so many sorry Madoff lessons still to be learned...
Q. So investors shouldn't delude themselves about beating the market?
A. "They're just not going to do it. It's just not going to happen." - Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2002
Investing as a limited partner with someone like Tudor Jones is vastly different than the wholesale corruption of regulation and market structure undertaken by the likes of GS.
Successful investing is an art, which to the dismay of many of today's mathletes , cannot be programmed. Sorry guys. Back to pocket protectors... nice textbook !
What the fuck are you talking about,"successful investing is an art"? No, it's a simple proposition of assumed risk in exchange for an expected return, after all fees and taxes, at least for anyone with a sane and rational view of reality. You represent just another sucker of the Wall Street/Madison Avenue machine. Good luck with your "artwork", you and the rest of the impressionable elites really seem to go for that sort of thing.
you have got to be kidding me
were you born yesterday?
Alexander is right and I'll take it a step further. PTJ may or may not be a genius. I don't know him. But investing with him is no different than investing with Goldman Sachs. You don't believe PTJ and other major hedge funds have manipulated regulation and gotten the rules they so cherish by lobbying Congress? It isn't their infinite brilliance that allows them to beat markets, it's their access to information that is removed from transparency from the rest of society. It's knowing the rules and even paying for the rules to get the outcome you want. Wake up you utter dipshit.
His main genius move was to work somewhere that allowed him to be able to take much bigger risks with capital. Aside from bad managers that's the difference between moderate success and huge success, the amount of leverage and risk you're allowed to take on. Not blowing up in the end and wiping out all the funds profits of course takes a magician.
Where tf are the profits to come from. I feel like I am in the twilight zone. It seems as if as long as people follow the Panglossian philosophy the markets will go to infinity. It is insane.
Marla your math problems suck when one is drunk.
Dude... Panglossian ? You're kidding ... right ? ...please say you are kidding.
We are in a bull market whether it is short lived or not, the market responds to negative news without even a pause. Right now shorting is VERY asymmetric, a company files a SEC statement saying they may have to file for bankruptcy and rallies 30% in 4 days. Stay flexible and make money.
the market responds to negative news without even a pause.
that, my anonymous friend is not the definition of a bull market, but of irrational exuberance and/or euphoria ....
Your definition of bullmarket is sqrewed, not a bullmarket, only a intermediate term uptrend at most. In a bullmarket ("business cycle") fundamentals and sales/earnings are confirming the rise in stock prices, which they are not doing at this time, that may change in the future but right now it's not a bullmarket.
Over the last couple months we had Soros, Och and now Jones declaring this as "just anoter bear market rally".
Who's next?
Yeah, those guys don't know anything.....
No other way to make money than to organise markets rip off with tax payers money.
This is new capitalism, we have been successful in the subprime,housing,government bonds, floating rates notes,auction notes.We like this lucrative games and we have adequate backing.
sorry
And now no use of inverse or leveraged ETFs at any major brokerage firm. They hava a plan and there isn't a damn thing we can do about it. Or, is there?
That isn't entirely true. You can buy a leveraged or inverse at your brokerage. Your broker just can't solicit the trade anymore.
I can't say where I work, but ALL solicited and unsolicted buys will be blocked from now on. And it's going to be seriously enforced.
Why not? You're an anonymous poster, placing comments on a server located half way across the world.
Now if you work at UBS, I'm inclined to believe you.
Try BankAmerrilLynchica
lol --- thank you for sharing man/girl
lol --- thank you for sharing man/girl
cheeky, man/girl, your hilarious.
man/woman
boy/girl
shows your multiple language deficit order.
Thanks. And yes, I still believe you.
Ken Lewis can't afford to be on the wrong side of those swap agreements, now can he?
Any inside reason given regarding motivation?
Obviously banks have the other side of many of those swaps (if market drops = losses)
Or is this just about the vehicle itself being poor (class action lawsuits) and protecting people from themselves?
SPX up 2% today Tyler, keep up the bearishness! You are the best contra indicator on the planet right now.
I am happy to see the number of bears are fading. It is the best indicator that this market is tapped out. Please do put your last dollars into the market. I want them
Spootilicious !
Can't be any shorts left, bulldozed flat. Time to short, this has to be a bull trap. BAC up 50% in 12 days...please
I do not follow your logic. "Everyone who shorted before me has been bulldozed flat. Therefore, I, too, shall lie in front of the bulldozer."
The market does not care about the economy. The tail wags the dog. Tyler may be right about the economy in every respect but the market does not care and never will.
Everyone knows the employment statistics were a lie. Doesn't matter. Go with the uptrend now so you'll have more to chase the downtrend later.
Paul must not be long JPM
I didn't follow the comment in there on 19 year old taken over market making. Some please enlighten me. thanks.
See any number of recent posts ridiculing quant funds employing recent college grads with math,compsci degrees.
yeah. its kinda a silly joke though.
Also, 21 days and counting:
S&P up more than 140 pts, low to high - no pullback of more than what? 16 pts from high to low?
I don't even think the NSADAQ did this during the internet bubble.
Next stop 1250?
"TRADER;..." featuring PTJ was pulled off you-tube in 2 days. What an inspirational video.
Apparently these non-farm payroll muppets don't understand that Wages and Salaries which drive recoveries in spending fell 4.7% in the 12 months through June- BIGGEST drop since records BEGAN in 1960.
But does that really matter when one is long magic beans??
Since when does PTJ make pronouncements about anything? He's already admitted to a directional bias if you watch "Trader", so he's either talking his book, or blowing smoke, or stating the consensus. In any event, his trades and macro views are often wrong - read "Market Wizards". His great ability is knowing when to shift course, often measured in seconds. This is the same guy who used to use multiple brokers to disguise his trades, he's not likely to hand out info for free.
But, nice post, I like your stuff!
In 1987 PTJ predicted the dow would fall to 500 (from around 1000). It rose to 2000. His genius is not sticking to his macro opinion if it fights the tape.
PTJ tripled his money during the 1987 crash. Hwalin Lee on the other hand lost 52 million and got to hold hands with a "leg-breaker" while being led out of the pits at the CBOE.
It appears the markets are being made by the big banks with hundreds of billions, maybe even trillions in fiat cash -- at least those who have agreed to double or triple their purchase of worthless government paper.
ptj has returned an avergae 20% p.a since 1986
Some of you people think PTJ would intentionally try to spread disinformation in a letter to clients? That is plain ridiculous. And FYI he is a class act, 100% genuine great guy.
yep
Snippets of "why fight it" and "throw in your newly minted ZH monogrammed towel" are signs of capitulation for the bears. Get ready.