This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Paul Wilmott: "High-Frequency Trading May Increasingly Destabilize The Market"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Paul Wilmott is a legend in quant circles: his website Wilmott.com, which Zero Hedge highly recommends to all readers for an in depth analysis on all things that are below the surface of the market, is one of the most popular resources dealing with the constantly changing topology of our increasingly more complex equity capital markets. Simply said, his opinion on matters in program and high-frequency trading is second to none.

Which is why we read his latest Op-Ed in the New York Times today, Hurrying Into The Next Panic, very carefully. His piece is a stunner - in summary, and in agreement with what Hedge discussed at length many months ago (we suggest readers familiarize themselves with this ZH piece as it is the one that started it all, and also explains partially our fascination with VWAP), Paul sees HFT as a force that is tantamount to what index arb and "dynamic portfolio insurance" was in the crash of 1987.

Thus the problem with the sudden popularity of high-frequency trading
is that it may increasingly destabilize the market. Hedge funds won’t
necessarily care whether the increased volatility causes stocks to rise
or fall, as long as they can get in and out quickly with a profit. But
the rest of the economy will care.

This argument goes to the real heart of the problem with HFT - the monopolization of liquidity provisioning, and the complicit nature of both exchanges and specific broker/dealers who are willing to usurp this "liquidity=volume" fallacy in exchange for perpetuating the $20+ billion revenue stream spread among a minute number of market participants. As such, Zero Hedge increasingly believes that what Goldman does on the NYSE (for example) is not so much an SEC issue (ignore the fact that the SEC is about 10 years behind the curve on this topic) but is in actuality an anti-trust concern.

Here is Zero Hedge's 2 cents: Christine Varney, forget about Google for one day and instead focus on what is easily the scariest, stealthiest, and potentially most expensive anti-trust issue in American society (and history) - that of HFT's increasingly monopolizing capital markets.

All this other talk about Flash frontrunning is for all intents and purposes merely window dressing (and not the best approach at that) - banning Flash, and leaving the other components of HFT untouched, would in fact be a big step back as it would merely enhance the strength of the New York Stock Exchange, and its symbiotic-parasitic partner Goldman Sachs would benefit even more if ECNs utilizing Flash and its variants such as Direct Edge and BATS are terminated: end result - concentrating even more power into a very limited number of players. 

Back to the Wilmott Op-Ed:

So, is trading faster than any human can react truly worrisome? The answers that come back from high-frequency
proponents, also rather too quickly, are “No, we are adding liquidity
to the market” or “It’s perfectly safe and it speeds up price
discovery.” In other words, the traders say, the practice makes it
easier for stocks to be bought and sold quickly across exchanges, and it more efficiently sets the value of shares.

Those
responses disturb me. Whenever the reply to a complex question is a
stock and unconsidered one, it makes me worry all the more.
Leaving
aside the question of whether or not liquidity is necessarily a great
idea (perhaps not being able to get out of a trade might make people
think twice before entering it
), or whether there is such a thing as a
price that must be discovered (just watch the price of unpopular goods
fall in your local supermarket — that’s plenty fast enough for me), l
want to address the question of whether high-frequency algorithm
trading will distort the underlying markets and perhaps the economy.

It has been said that the October 1987 stock market crash was caused in
part by something called dynamic portfolio insurance, another approach
based on algorithms. Dynamic portfolio insurance is a way of protecting
your portfolio of shares so that if the market falls you can limit your
losses to an amount you stipulate in advance. As the market falls, you
sell some shares. By the time the market falls by a certain amount, you
will have closed all your positions so that you can lose no more money.

By 1987, however, the problem was the sheer number of people
following the strategy and the market share that they collectively
controlled.
If a fall in the market leads to people selling according
to some formula, and if there are enough of these people following the
same algorithm, then it will lead to a further fall in the market, and
a further wave of selling, and so on — until the Standard & Poor’s
500 index loses over 20 percent of its value in single day: Oct. 19,
Black Monday
. Dynamic portfolio insurance caused the very thing it was
designed to protect against.

This is the sort of feedback that
occurs between a popular strategy and the underlying market, with a
long-lasting effect on the broader economy
. A rise in price begets a
rise. (Think bubbles.) And a fall begets a fall. (Think crashes.)
Volatility rises and the market is destabilized. All that’s needed is
for a large number of people to be following the same type of strategy.

And if we’ve learned only one lesson from the recent financial crisis
it is that people do like to copy each other when they see a profitable
idea.

Zero Hedge could not agree more and we implore to carefully read the whole piece and consider all its implications. This is truly a topic that is critical to capital markets - if and when we have another 20% fall in the capital markets (especially now that people's faith in the system is on the edge every day), will likely turn away those few remaining retail players who still hope to make a living from speculating. The sad thing is that long-term buy and hold investors have already departed the market, as they have realized the traditional methods of approaching stock valuation such as fundamental and technical analysis have gone out of the window and been replaced by such arcane concepts as quant factors. 

As for those curious to investigate more of Wilmott's thoughts on the matter, we would like to point them to this specific entry in Paul's Blog "This is no longer funny." As this was written on March 10, 2008, it was eerily prophetic - I summarize several of Paul's key forward looking points here:

THERE WILL BE MORE ROGUE TRADERS: While people are compensated as they
are, while management look the other way to let the ‘talent’ do
whatever they like, while people mistake luck for ability, there will
be people of weak character who take advantage of the system. The bar
is currently at €5billion. There will be many happy to stay under that
bar, it gives them some degree of anonymity when things go wrong. But
that record will be broken.

GOOD SALESMEN WILL HOODWINK SMART PEOPLE: No matter what you or
regulatory bodies or governments do we are all a pushover for the slick
salesman.

CONVEXITY WILL BE MISSED: One of the more common reasons for losing
money is assuming something to be known when it isn’t. Option theory
tells us that convexity plus randomness equals value.

CORRELATION PRODUCTS WILL BLOW UP DRAMATICALLY: This means anything
with more than one underlying, including CDOs. Stop trading these
contracts in quantity this very minute. These contracts are lethal. If
you must trade correlation then do it small and with a big margin for
error. If you ignore this then I hope you don’t hurt anyone but
yourself. (I am sometimes asked to do expert-witness work. If you blow
up and hurt others, I am very happy to be against you in court.)

RISK MANAGEMENT WILL FAIL: Risk managers have no incentive to limit
risk. If the traders don’t take risks and make money, the risk managers
won’t make money.

VOLATILITY WILL INCREASE ENORMOUSLY AT TIMES FOR NO ECONOMIC REASON:
Banks and hedge funds are in control of a ridiculous amount of the
world’s wealth. They also trade irresponsibly large quantities of
complex derivatives. They slavishly and unimaginatively copy each
other, all holding similar positions. These contracts are then
dynamically hedged by buying and selling shares according to
mathematical formulae. This can and does exacerbate the volatility of
the underlying. So from time to time expect to see wild market
fluctuations for no economic reason other than people are blindly
obeying some formula.

TOO MUCH MONEY WILL GO INTO TOO FEW PRODUCTS: If you want the biggest
house in the neighbourhood, and today not tomorrow, you can only do it
by betting OPM (other people’s money) big and undiversified. There are
no incentives for spreading the money around responsibly.

MORE HEDGE FUNDS WILL COLLAPSE: You can always start a new one. Hell, start two at the same time, one buys, the other sells!

POLITICIANS AND GOVERNMENTS WILL REMAIN COMPLETELY IN THE DARK: Do you
want to earn £50k p.a. working for the public sector, or £500k p.a.
working for Goldman Sachs? Governments, who are supposed to set the
rules, do not even know what the game is. They do not have the
slightest clue about what happens in banks and hedge funds. Possibly,
for the same reason, London will lose out to New York as a world
financial centre.

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 09:40 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 09:51 | Link to Comment somethingisrotten
somethingisrotten's picture

Man, I would love to see behind the mask, err I mean bag, of these GS employees.

Wed, 07/29/2009 - 10:42 | Link to Comment erich
erich's picture

Amen!  When clueless, revert to mention of GS!  Case CLOSED!

Wed, 07/29/2009 - 10:59 | Link to Comment somethingisrotten
somethingisrotten's picture

It appears from the market trading since light was shone on this disgusting topic that non-HFT traders have voted - they consider it illegal by all standard definitions..

Wed, 07/29/2009 - 11:04 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 13:25 | Link to Comment svendthrift
svendthrift's picture

meh

Wed, 01/26/2011 - 10:51 | Link to Comment suedallin
Sun, 03/27/2011 - 20:47 | Link to Comment anthurium
anthurium's picture

Not a chance, unless I get 100 to 1 odds. These HFT geniuses are going to cause another  flash crash at some point. I just hope I'm out of the market when it happens. anthurium

Wed, 07/29/2009 - 10:18 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 12:05 | Link to Comment KidDynamite
KidDynamite's picture

BINGO. this is the key.

Wed, 07/29/2009 - 14:54 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 10:23 | Link to Comment zeropointfield (not verified)
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 10:31 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 11:26 | Link to Comment dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

all this running up on no real merit is what causes that drastic crashes - that is what ZH et all is trying to prevent

 

why is BAC shooting up while everyone else is bleeding today??

 

bots are firing!

Wed, 07/29/2009 - 13:46 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 14:57 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Mon, 06/20/2011 - 15:28 | Link to Comment Hremas
Hremas's picture

Very good article Tyler,good work dude!

forex trading signals

Wed, 07/29/2009 - 11:18 | Link to Comment Hondo
Hondo's picture

Wilmott doesn’t purport there isn’t any wrong doing either.  He assume all information is publically available.  Well, news…. flashes aren’t publically available. 

When everyone is doing the same thing (remember the HF’s in the summer of 2007 ) then things will get nasty very quickly when sentiment changes (and it always does).  When 70% of the volume in the market is from one strategy (that proclaims to be adding liquidity but isn’t and won’t when the sentiment changes) then big moves in the market are destine to happen and there is no way to get out of the way when it does.  These kinds of moves are very destabilizing to the economy as a whole due to their effect on wealth, consumption and investment (to say little of the effect of government deficits to try and bring back balance to the overall economy.

Wed, 07/29/2009 - 14:35 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 18:58 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sun, 05/29/2011 - 03:26 | Link to Comment SampsonHelix
SampsonHelix's picture

Everything that too excessive are not good. It's also apply for trading.

http://www.paydayloan2u.com/loans/

Wed, 07/29/2009 - 09:45 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Unfortunately you seem to have missed both the gist of Wilmott's piece, as well as my original contention from the original linked article. Happy to provide the conclusion from that piece:

"So what happens in a world where the very core of the capital markets
system is gradually deleveraging to a point where maintaining a liquid
and orderly market becomes impossible: large swings on low volume,
massive bid-offer spreads, huge trading costs, inability to clear and
numerous failed trades. When the quant deleveraging finally catches up
with the market, the consequences will likely be unprecedented, with
dramatic dislocations leading the market both higher and lower on
record volatility
."

Wed, 07/29/2009 - 10:32 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 10:46 | Link to Comment erich
erich's picture

ZH makes numerous conspiracy sightings each day, so one has to be careful when stating ZH has not made the same claim as Wilmott.

I think it is clear that the notion volume = liquidity is a mistake, and both ZH and Wilmott agree on that.  It also seems clear to me that for exchanges to rent out special access server space is unfair and should be stopped.  I would like to know if Wilmott and others agree with that.

Wed, 07/29/2009 - 11:09 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 09:47 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 10:54 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 10:55 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 19:22 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 11:08 | Link to Comment ShankyS
ShankyS's picture

BINGO! Ring the bell we have a winner here. GS has come to our government at a time of need as the white knight. Lo and behold to our leaders surprise GS became so entrenched that they can not be removed from the system without causing systemic collapse at a time when government power teeters on the brink and we can least afford it. They are dammed if they do and damned if they don't. They want power and control, so guess which way they decide?

Problem that TD is pointing out is that the white knight's system will eventually fail as power coils and condenses at the top. Then it crumbles. In the mean time to protect against this future event they remove shorting possibilities which will further exacerbate the fall when it occurs. We're fucked one way of the other.

I am pleased that this is being addressed, but GS's power base is so well entrenched and they are making so much money that the worse of the two scenarios will happen first. Flash will be done away with as "regulatory reform" occurs while not addressing the larger problem (similar to CDS issues). They sew up the wound but don't perform the required surgery to fix the problem. 

Wed, 07/29/2009 - 11:46 | Link to Comment dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

just like the english boys did in that 20's crash and also what they did to Jackson when he got the US out of debt

 

they play the games and the sheep are their army

Wed, 07/29/2009 - 09:47 | Link to Comment Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

The increased dynamics of these topics in various areas of society is the desired natural progression of the work that has been applied to this point.  I am sure that TD and many of the much more informed that I am among the participants here have carefully considered how those that oppose our efforts will attempt to deflect and alter the discussion and potential outcomes.  In this careful consideration and enhancement of the flows of information and consideration of specific reactions to stimuli will be most instructive.

Keep up the pressure.  The dynamics of the deep strike continue to apply.  Best wishes.

Wed, 07/29/2009 - 09:51 | Link to Comment DebtorShredder
DebtorShredder's picture

MORE HEDGE FUNDS WILL COLLAPSE: You can always start a new one. Hell, start two at the same time, one buys, the other sells!

Auditting the FED may yield.

Wed, 07/29/2009 - 11:21 | Link to Comment SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

comment moved to new relevant thread

Wed, 07/29/2009 - 09:57 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 10:11 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 10:14 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 10:59 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 10:17 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 10:35 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 10:39 | Link to Comment amarshall
amarshall's picture

Great, we didn't need the NYSE anyway

Wed, 07/29/2009 - 11:02 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 11:47 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 11:52 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 12:26 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 12:48 | Link to Comment BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

Joe Saluzi is on the Bloomberg today talking about Flash trading:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7nwUdDMPpI

 

Wed, 07/29/2009 - 14:09 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 14:51 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 15:21 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 15:30 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 18:06 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 19:45 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 07/29/2009 - 21:50 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sun, 11/01/2009 - 01:33 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Sun, 11/01/2009 - 01:34 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Thu, 11/11/2010 - 20:55 | Link to Comment Susancai
Susancai's picture

We are not familiar with Paul Wilmott's ideas. After reading this post, we have more knowledge about them. job |advertising|discount mattresses

Tue, 01/11/2011 - 03:56 | Link to Comment pams
pams's picture

I like his ideas... there are so original. Hope to see some of them applied.

mixed wrestling

Fri, 03/18/2011 - 12:11 | Link to Comment SampsonHelix
SampsonHelix's picture

Trading is an interesting work field. It needs good strategies and predictions to achieve the goals.
laptop computer case

Wed, 05/18/2011 - 09:38 | Link to Comment SKira
SKira's picture

Nice article. thanks for sharing. And a pretty intense discussion as well. buy essay

Tue, 05/24/2011 - 09:39 | Link to Comment Apollosan
Apollosan's picture

there has been a lot of development going on lately. I believe the article can act as a catalyst in improving the lives of many people and the commenter knows that this is good. Ill be glad to be part of it more. <a href="http://www.rentalprotectionagency.com/tenant-screening.php">Tenant Background Check</a>

Wed, 05/25/2011 - 17:12 | Link to Comment sun1
sun1's picture

you give so many great tips especially since I use word press and the plug-in section of your blog is great. some of the tips i get here I can’t find anywhere else. health administration

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 17:12 | Link to Comment iziel
iziel's picture

I am worried that high frequency trading increases the risk. Some people might make a killing initially and that might lead to gready behavior. Then you know the rest. auto ins quotes

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 07:00 | Link to Comment SKira
SKira's picture

In the summer of 1922, Nick writes, he had just arrived in New York, where he moved to work in the bond business, and rented a house on a part of Long Island called West Egg. [url=http://www.vivaessays.com/]custom writing[/url]

Fri, 06/17/2011 - 20:29 | Link to Comment sun
sun's picture

Dude, the Star Wars is cracking me up. Thanks for the great post, these are my fav so far. xbox 360 slim

Sat, 06/18/2011 - 03:56 | Link to Comment ricky1
ricky1's picture

Wow, nice post,there are many person searching about that

kamagra | Generic Viagra | Finpecia | Penegra | Kamagra |Kamagra Oral Jelly

Sat, 06/18/2011 - 03:57 | Link to Comment ricky1
ricky1's picture

Hey,

Great idea, I would like to read your post every day,

Caverta | Generic Viagra | Kamagra  | Cheap Generic Viagra|

Sun, 06/26/2011 - 10:37 | Link to Comment sun
sun's picture

I found lots of interesting information here. The post was professionally written and I feel like the author has extensive knowledge in the subject. Keep it that way masters in sports

Sun, 07/24/2011 - 15:14 | Link to Comment mahmoud321
mahmoud321's picture

Searching good blog is not an easy task because number of blogs with exaggeration is available but the information on this blog is completely based on research. It will help you in getting information and gaining knowledge.  

http://kleinkrediteohneschufa.com
Sun, 07/24/2011 - 15:15 | Link to Comment mahmoud321
mahmoud321's picture

Thanks for the useful post! I would not have found this myself!   http://immobilienfinanzierungrechner.com

Sun, 07/24/2011 - 15:15 | Link to Comment mahmoud321
mahmoud321's picture

This is such a great resource that you are providing and you give it away for free. I love seeing websites that understand the value of providing a quality resource for free. It is the old what goes around comes around routine. 

http://www.finanzierungsrechnerimmobilien.de
Sun, 07/24/2011 - 15:16 | Link to Comment mahmoud321
mahmoud321's picture

Thank you for you aritcle,It is useful for me.And I want to introduce gucci outlet to you,I think it is useful for you! 

http://kreditrechnerimmobilien.com
Mon, 07/25/2011 - 14:20 | Link to Comment topbebo
topbebo's picture

Awesome post bromance. I LOVE your writing style.    http://rechtsschutzversicherungtest.com/

Mon, 07/25/2011 - 14:20 | Link to Comment topbebo
topbebo's picture

Enjoyed reading this thanks for the valuable content         http://kreditonlinebeantragen.com/

Mon, 07/25/2011 - 14:21 | Link to Comment topbebo
topbebo's picture

Exceptional report, maintain the fantastic work.    http://privatkreditvergleichen.com

Sun, 08/14/2011 - 23:43 | Link to Comment jonesperry81
jonesperry81's picture

 

You maybe have quality knowledge of what your discussing or just did some great research but I like it so much. Thanks for this excellent post.

nfl football picks | ncaa football picks

 

Mon, 08/15/2011 - 09:50 | Link to Comment NFLpredictions
NFLpredictions's picture

Destabilizing the market is in fact a bad thing. I do hope that people will not do high frequency trading for this one not to occur. Looking for NFL updates? Head to <a href="http://www.nflexpertpicks1.com">nfl expert picks</a> and <a href="http://www.nflpredictions1.com">nfl predictions</a>.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!