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Paulson Goes Hog Wild In Q2, Adds Billions To Existing Positions, Opens New Positions In Goldman, GGP, American Capital And Others
John Paulson who has recently not had much P&L success in his bullish bet on the economy, released his 13-F for Q2. It appears JP went hog wild adding to existing and new positions in Q2, increasing total positions outstanding from 60 to 78. During the quarter, in addition to adding billions to existing positions (most notably increasing his Hartford position by 31.3 million share to 44 million for a total value of $973 million at June 30, making this a top 5 position, below Anglogold and above Comcast), Paulson added 19 new positions worth $2.4 billion, particularly in Exxon, for 9.2 million shares, or over half a billion as of 6/30, 7 million shares of Sybase, 10 million shares of Mariner Energy, 43.7 million shares in American Capital, 66.7 million shares in Popular, and, lo and behold, a 1.1 million share position in former darling, and CDO portfolio creator extraordinaire, Goldman Sachs (as well as a bunch of other positions). In the meantime, Paulson divested of his positions in XTO, 3 Com and First Midwest. Yet of the top positions in Paulson's portfolio, which tonie to be GLD, Bank of America, and Citigroup, the manager has seen a substantial drop in value, with BofA declining by over a dollar per share between June 30 and currently, and Citi dropping by $0.50, resulting in a loss of $400 million in just these two names in the period since the 13F. Add a $3 drop in GLD, and the top three positions alone have caused a half a billion loss in Paulson's portfolio since June 30.
Full portfolio breakdown below (green shading indicates new positions).
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Wait a second....
The MSM and The Evil Empire all claimed that Paulson liquidations were the cause of the sharp losses in gold that ultimately led to an 8%+ correction in price. This cost a lot of folks a lot of money and it wasn't true???
What a fucking joke. And to think there are actually people who don't think that The Evil Empire manipulates the price of gold. They are simply useful idiots for the cabal.
This is as of June 30. Gold fireworks were in Q3.
Wait a second......
All those rumors (including the ones on ZH) occurred in July. So that would make it after the second quarter ended. Thus any change in GLD will not be reflected until the 13-F is filed for Q3.
Oops. Turd responded too quickly. I dutifully junked myself for the error.
Oh well, the AGAs are shills and idiots nonetheless.
In poker this is called 'all in'. Guess we will find out how good the bluff is.
I forgot about the gold action though Q3 is certainly very interesting....but it is too rich for my bunker mentality at this point...silver though is still tasty..
I think he's holding a pair of 2's at best, just like everything else!
Bernanke gave him the secret wink.
Dow 36,000. Before the election. You can do it, Ben! Do it for America and the $50 apple pie!
Hope he loses his shirt! Vulture.
THIS pAULSON GUY REEKS OF THE ILLUMINATI...HAS INSIDE INFO...
If he has insider info, how come he hasn't realized GLD is a Ponzi scheme?
Think we're all about to find out shortly that JP got a little lucky on that MBS windfall.
It can be quite rewarding to take part in a Ponzi scheme, so long as you know when to get out....
My very young and dumb parents did pretty good in the "circle of gold" pyramid scheme when I was little!
You need inside info to lose half a billion in dollars in a month?
A number of these (Mariner and Sybase) are traditional risk arb trades. GLD however is not.
it is that ...or they are expecting a major devaluation of the $
http://benjaminfulford.typepad.com/benjaminfulford/
It is quite clear JP (if I may take the liberty to refer to Him as JP)needs a much faster computer and some more IT guys. Oh, and WTF is up with the 3 portions of Beazer.
Hey man, I can loose a half billion dollars! Someone gimme some money to invest!
The cold kiss of death will be on any investor who goes with the mo in this market.
I wish they wouldn't make these announcements as they are so late, they do no one any good...
Let him buy. Anyone who was supposed to be as prescient as Paulson in loading up on subprime/RE CDO's prior to the crash should certainly have the capability of of perceiving how more dangerous the situation we are in now in relation to housing and equity markets given the potential wipe out in HELOCs, new mortgage holders, sovereign debt repudiation, the inevitability of rising rates, increased banking regulation if the political landscape changes and desperate populist movements ferment into civil disobedience given our economic situation.
So this leads me to a few conclusions.
Paulson was complicit with Goldman with rumor mongering and the naked short selling of the markets being a large catalyst for the decline to induce payout on their positions since the situation were seemingly rosier at that point in time.
OR
He has private assurances that the Federal Reserve will not cease intervention until a new bubble has reflated and is positioning himself through contacts with Goldman through their Fed contacts under this assumption.
What I am trying to say is that his previous bet was made because it was a rigged game and his current positions are based on another rigged game. What I am betting on is that they have created a monster of such distrust and wealth destruction in the markets that not even the Federal Reserve can prevent what is coming. They also created such an anger within American citizens that it is all downhill from here and I cannot see them creating fictional profits on the previous scales based on virgin instruments since the easy credit was at a decades long peak.
Unemployment benefits will end + Consumer credit contraction is still in the open stages + credit reports are tainted for decades + manufacturing jobs are dying daily + baby boomers are retiring en masse withdrawing from the markets + jobless cannot contribute to 401k's+ the previously burned refuse to contribute to 401ks = Housing defaults on new mortgages and previously safe mortgages/HELOCs will increase since the jobs are not in existence to be supportive.
Since we are now a complete services sector economy you can expect increased competition for jobs which will equate to lower wages or job cuts in order to protect the almighty corporate margin. Anyone long the markets is betting not on the markets themselves but on the basis that the Federal Reserve can create the bubble one last time. Anyone betting against the markets is taking a contrarian approach that the gravity of all these distortions and perceptions they have created are larger even than the Fed itself. Well The Fed is Daedelus.
The Fed equals the longs Constant
The American people serve as my Variable
When jokes like Paulson are broke I will consider going long. In the meantime I will stay long reason, history and Gravity.
The GLD position is by far the most interesting. Over to the gold experts...
I like the XOM position. When we invade Iran that could pay off big time.
My god is the man short anything?
Starting to look like Fidelity's Magellan fund, eh?
Short positions, fixed income and derivatives are not included in the 13-F filing.
I follow the exploits of Matt Halbower since he started his own shop in '07 - brilliant quarter
Pentwater Capital more than doubles in quarter
The Pentwater guys are smart, but try and curb your enthusiasm. My guess is the sharp increase in reported positions sequentially is due to (1) investing existing cash in new event-driven / merger-arb situations (reported $ positions bottomed in June 2009); and (2) new cash inflows into the fund. In both instances, it would not positively impact the dollar-weighted returns unless you happen to be the Beardstown Ladies.
06/30/10: $2,002.8 MM
03/31/10: 877.3 MM
12/31/09: 935.8 MM
09/30/09: 907.4 MM
06/30/09: 518.3 MM
03/31/09: 559.4 MM
12/31/08: 542.6 MM
09/30/08: 1,581.5 MM
06/30/08: 1,208.0 MM
03/31/08: 1,698.9 MM
12/31/07: 1,758.9 MM
He is going to get his ass kicked in Hartford. It is my favorite short in fact, not now, but soon. Wow, an idiot can see their balance sheet is shit. Who the hell is left doing his analysis?? If it wasn't for their tax-loss carry forwards they still would not even have profits. Book share of $33 my ass. Try $3.33.
What's so great about this guy? He had GS rig a deal for him re CDO's to make a bunch of dough. Other than that wtf has he ever done?
Now i know what to short, thx.
Is it a requirement to disclose short positions as well as long since technically one doesn't really "own" the shares when short? Someone educate me here!!
No reporting of short positions, derivatives and debt securities on the 13-F. For all we know, he could be net-short on some of the stated positions.
LMAO, embrace the suckiness, Paulson.
Makes you wonder- Is Paulson really Leo?
BofA and Citi the cream of the crap - WTF is he doing?
He's a fag.
Then again, even if he WANTED to play on actual gold (vice GLD)--he's got too much money to do it quietly.
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