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Payrolls Huge Miss: +39K Compared To Consensus Of 150K, 9.8% Unemployment Rate
Private payrolls +50K on expectations of +160K! Retail Manufacturing payrolls plunge 13K on expectations of +5K. Previous revised down to -7K. As Zero Hedge expected the ADP was totally and completely off. And so the myth of the recovery can suck it.
From the report:
The unemployment rate edged up to 9.8 percent in November, and nonfarm payroll employment was little changed (+39,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Temporary help services and health care continued to add jobs over the month, while employment fell in retail trade. Employment in most major industries changed little in November.
And the bad news continues: Average Hourly Earnings M/M at 0.0% on expectations of 0.2%. But please keep buying those iPads with Fed money.
And more bad news: Labor Force Participation does not move up one bit, remaining flat at 64.5% contrary to expectations that people would start coming back to the work force.
And some other observations:
- 15.1 million Americans unemployed
- 6.3 million unemployed for 6 months or longer, the highest since July
- The labor force grew by 103K, but the number of unemployed grew more than twice at -276k
Also, contrary to the theme that people are reentering the labor force, the number of people who want a job now, actually declined by 37K!
Knight Capital's take:
With unemployment rising to 9.8% as job seekers re-enter the market (the pool of available labor rose 239K during the month and the civilian labor force rose 103K) we could have been okay with this report as it is normal for job recoveries to begin with encouraged workers. However when combined with NFP of 39K and Private Payrolls of 50K, it is hard to be encouraged. Discouraged workers rose and the "underemployment" level remains at 17%.
Where are the positives? The prior month was upgraded from 151K to 172K for NFP and up 1K to 160K for private payrolls. There was also not a distortion from the oft criticized birth/death ratio as new businesses were assumed to have resulted in a loss of 8K jobs. Thus, the number is "cleaner" than usual. Also temporary help rose for the fourth consecutive month, usually a positive sign of future permanent hiring, but we have seen it give a false positive before in this market.
But that is basically it. 39K is pretty far from 150K and 50K is a far cry from 160K. What is close? Well, 9.8% is pretty close to 10%. Unemployment cycles are longer at the zero bound and the retooling of workers and demand from an economy geared toward housing production is a lengthy process.
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At $30.50 per/oz not bad. Minimum order $1,525 (50 pcs) with no shipping is a deal.
I usually by Silver Eagles only but I'll take a second look at these.
You can add me to that list also. I don't have the ammo that others have here, but I did fire 8 more silver eagle bullets at JPM yesterday on my lunch break for the kiddos.
But, but , but, they said yesterday on CNBC that the solar industry in the United States is adding a whopping 400 new jobs. Hey Leo, you hear that?
Friday battle: the only 2 numbers that matter are 1400 and 29. Oh, and just for a laugh, lets make a spread on how many times those dumbos on CNBC say the word 'kneejerk' re equities reaction.
$1,400.00 for door stops and paper weights. How do you like me now Douchinger?
And the hilarious part is...the street is not long gold...but is VERY long $9 freakin' burritos at Mall Locations...with profit margin destruction ahead as said street participants bid up corn....into its own face!
It is sad...a nation of once bright folk...
What's this EURUSD move versus the ES???
its all about hard assets vs fiduciary...
No matter where the EUR/USD wants,,,the only thing matters now is holding hard assets vs paper.
Brian Sack will buy 16 Billion today instead of 8 to make up for the bad news.
That should help get the unemployment benefits extended into infinity
while crushing the dollar back down to help boost stocks even higer.
Need to keep that wealth effect going to get more Netflix subscribers
watching on iPads!
all this angst over the unemployment benefits....really....wake up
IT'S a rounding error,means nothing.
I don't blame anyone that IS scamming the benefits.
Why would they wish to work at the serf jobs if they could get them.
It is right and just that slaves refuse to work.
STOP NOW!
I could tell u than in Odessa and Socchi (russia) big cats are asking for tons of gold and rhodium, swapping diamonds.
Seriously..It is always a PLUNGE or a SURGE with you - regardless of the number.
and howcome the b/d adjustment is suddenly NOT mentioned...
Oh wait, could it be that it was a net negative adjustment this time ?
I like you as a source of information, but could you turn down the extremely obvious bias just a little for once.
I kind of agree. Nuance is welcome.
Speaking of bias, what's this? Consecutive downward revision #59? BLS sucks.
I finally got offered a job yesterday after 3 months of looking. I get to start on Monday. Yay!
Nice. Good for you.
That is wonderful. Hope you like the job.
Now put down the gun.
Oh wait, I have one too...
From my cold dead monkey hands!
CNBC:
If you want to survive, REPORT THE NEWS, ONLY!! NO MORE ADVISOR WHORES AND FOR FUCK'S SAKE GET THAT CRAMER AND KUDLOW OFF YOUR CHANNEL.
PPT GET TO WORK!!!!!!
CNBC is merely some kind of porn show. The few people left watch this station for boobs, not relevant data.
I hope you are right.
I'd think there is a huge opportunity for a semi honest financial news network that actually reports the news.
had 16 (lawyers, cpa's, brokers etc) over for thanksgiving. only 1 was employed by the man. everybody else worked (struggled) for self to carve out a living. i run this query (silently) at every event i go to, or host. it's the rarity to find more than a few folks employed by the man.
Your charity, feeding the poor on Thanksgiving, is admirable. Do you do run these programs all year long or only on the holidays? Every little bit helps.
yes, it's year round charity at lieutenantjohnchard's house of misfit people. the host sets the standard.
Do bankers count as public sector workers? I think there's room for debate given how QE has been operating.
+1
Birth/Death model adjustments for year end are being made a little earlier because in my belief they have been fudging the data by a massive amount. Thus the year end adjustment will not look as bad in my opinion. Call me jaded.
B/D prints a -8 this month...very odd
of course, LAST MONTHS +150,000 jobs were 100% the result of a NEW seasonal adjustment....since the old ones were not creating enough jobs.
this month's b/d adjustment was expected, and follows the path from last year. take a look at the data. it is not correlated however with Oct to Nov relative change over the last 10 years. b/d is running at a ~10-20K better clip than 2009. nonfarm payrolls is just a crapshoot.
http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm
LIESMAN ABOUT TO DEFEND THE SENILE EXPERT'S COMMENTS.
Oh well, never got around to it.
Seriously should like 360 Dow points fall off from this report that was being priced in?
(deleted, rude comment about a certain British xxxxx and Italian-American xxxxxxxxx)
Cnbs spin, that this is good, more qe2, qe3. More tax cuts etc. So market doing well on this.
Always sunny up your ass.
i thought ben could fix the number...i am confused....if he can why would he let this number out unless he needed tp drop the 10 - 30 year rates
Number designed to allow for QE3, 4, and 5, extension of unemployment benefits, extension of bush tax cuts, more fiscal stimulus, and partial payroll tax holiday.
All in all the number is extremely dollar negative as in addition to "buy the dip", "fuck the deficit" is in play.
Booyah.
We should just skip QE 4, 5 & 6 and go straight to QE22. Whatever QE22 would be, let's simply inititate it on 02 JAN 2011. Fed pays cash for trash, literally. They replace your curbside household refuse for bags of greenbacks. Instant velocity and finally the inflation they've been seeking all along!
Yup. At this point Bernanke should just throw up his hands and tell the girls at the computers at the federal reserve to transfer one million dollars into every checking account in every bank in the USSA.
That oughta do it.
...
For a month or three.
I love this overreaction. I'm a buyer at 1200 on the spx.
Long and loud.
Thanks, Cramer.
Joke is on you. The market won't go anywhere near that low today. You better buy the fucking dip a little fucking sooner.
Can there be any more proof that more QE will not reduce unemployment. Impeach Bernake before he collapses the entire world's financial system.
Here here...he HAS TO GO! And I rather think he will, actually. Fall guys are going to be much needed when 2011 arrives.
I think as the Bernank was a depression scholar he saw lots of dead people. He took a bite of the forbidden apple, like Madoff and crossed over to the dark side. A little lie grows and festers into a bigger and bigger one. Now The Bernank is all in, just like Madoff.
Good for you, Haynes!
Hammer that XXXX about explaining the other old XXXX's comments!
(Simon, cnbc) "I wonder sometimes if we concentrate too much on the employment report... I mean how many people are there in the United States currently?... I mean I'm not trying to talk the market up but..."
are you referring to the 45 million Americans on food stamps?
Amazing...CNBC, after a month of propaganda leading up to this event, immediately begins spinning that this is good because it will force DC to do this or do that.
We have all witnessed the death of our economy. We are also clearly witnessing the death of a television network. Pretty amazing, this current CNBC group.
Bob Pisani comes on with "all good...QE3 on the way." Anyone catch Santelli's reaction to that comment...down in his little box as he waits?
You know, I would not be surprised to simply wake up Monday...to CNBC simply off the air.
IF ONLY!!
They have to make a living.
If you were an advertiser and your sales depend on consumers being optimistic and happy, you would absolutely refuse to fund media that presents information that will HURT your shareholders with gloomy outlook.
If you're a journalist, you can only go so far in that direction, so you have an occasional bear on, but you do not let him or her be too loud -- because you know every second of airtime that person has is annoying YOUR CUSTOMERS (the advertisers).
The advertisers will not pay for media that hurts them. CNBC is not immune to this. No one is. Don't blame them.
Please, do not excuse fraud.
It seems like even good folk have more or less thrown in the towel on honesty, ethics and justice. Now overt, intentional fraud is just "doing business".
Unfortunately, that's pretty much literally true in the USSA.
But that is no excuse to echo that fraud.
RALLY!!!
too bad the jobs that were added are all temp seasonal employment positions as well i would assume.
Paging Brian Sacks...Brian Sacks... please pick up the White Courtesy Phone
This is good news! QE3! Buy the weakness!
That will in fact be the spin. Good call.
If you blinked you missed the dip. Stay long. Dont fight the Fed.
Payroll # is meaningless - trailing indicator
"And so the myth of the recovery can suck it."
line of the day - funny shit, Tyler. let's go grab a beer, buddy.
The market is up. I do not see what all the concern is about? We got a report today that shows that 90.2% of the country is employed. While I do think we need to figure out ways to get the additional 5% to work (which would be more than full employment), that can take a little while but hardly a crisis.
Agree with you 1000%. After all the economy and the market are clearly synonymous.
Looking forward to QE2 being called off.
CNBS programming change :
1 - 4 pm, each host will take a turn pole dancing to distract the remaining viewers from the latest unemployment numbers!
I wouldn't mind watching Burnet pole dance, beats the hell out of the regularly scheduled programming!
The US government must stop using negative effects on labor force participation as an argument against "illegal" drug use, or add money printing to the list of "illegal" drugs. Articles like the one below look like BS more and more.
http://archives.drugabuse.gov/economiccosts/Chapter5a.html
I'd love to see a news story about how these consensus numbers are reached. Are they doing research? Do they just talk to each other? Is there any real research that goes on?
Because it seems that there are a lot of folks that need to go wash their hands based on where this set of numbers must have originated...
Just wait until the year end revisions are published next February. The adjustments are going to be BRUTAL. Oh, and Merry F'n Christmas from the Bureau of Propaganda. This should give the morons two full weeks to adjust their retail sales projections because this news should sink everyone's projections if they are honest in their reporting.
Funny how once the GOP starts talking about removing job creation from the Fed's Mandate, payroll expectations come in massively low...or maybe it's the fact UI wasn't extended?
Either way this number has been manipulated for political reasons, without a doubt.
The percentage of people working is merely interesting ... what is more relevant is the proportion of the population that is net-tax-providing versus that which is net-tax-consuming. I would wager that the net-tax-providers are less than 10% of the population and decreasing as time goes by. The US keeps importing slave labor, with the criminal elite telling us that we need these net-tax-consumers to keep the game going, and the net effect is that the economy and the populace are being dumbed down. Does it matter if you have full employment if the jobs are all getting crappier?