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Payrolls Plunge By 95K, Unemployment Rate 9.6%, Private Jobs Up 64K, U-6 Shoots Up To 17.1% From 16.7%
An interesting "Goldilocks" read, in which total jobs missed expectations of -5K wildly, yet Private jobs missed much more modestly by just 11K (and beat Goldman's expectation). The unemployment rate came in at 9.6% on expectations of 9.7%. The actual number of people unemployed was 14.767 million, a small decline from August' 14.860, and since the civilian labor force continues to refuse to increase at 154.1 million, the jobless rate is obviously flat. Government workers declined by 159,000, and census took out 77,000. And of course, prior data was revised adversely for both August and July. Yet the most notable number appears to be the U-6, which jumped to 17.1% from 16.7% in August. The reason futures are struggling on this report, is that it is not so bad to guarantee QE2, and is most certainly not "good."
And some of the key excerpts:
On U-6
Among the marginally attached, there were 1.2 million discouraged workers in September, an increase of 503,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.3 million persons marginally attached to the labor force had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
On declining government workers:
Government employment fell by 159,000 in September. A decline in federal government employment was due to the loss of 77,000 temporary Census 2010 jobs. As of September, about 6,000 temporary decennial census workers remained on the federal government payroll, down from a peak of 564,000 in May. Employment in local government decreased by 76,000 in September with job losses in both education and noneducation.
On unchanged average hourly wages:
Average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm payrolls increased by 1 cent to $22.67 in September. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 1.7 percent. In September, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees increased by 1 cent to $19.10.
On an unchanged workweek
In September, the average workweek for all employees was unchanged at 34.2 hours. The manufacturing workweek for all employees decreased by 0.1 hour to 40.1 hours, and factory overtime was unchanged at 3.0 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private non-farm payrolls was unchanged at 33.5 hours.
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DEPRESSION BITCHES!!
It would be quite nice if Ministry of Plenty focused on the percent of population "employed" (enslaved) and the magnitude of their "employment" as deduced from actual tax receipts reported. But I suppose from their perspective that would not be "nice" at all. To paraphrase Oliver North, what good is the truth? The truth doesn't pay. - (It doesn't in his system of "government" at least).
One thing I track is the total economic value of the employment market, so I grab the CES data from the BLS website and track both the average weekly earnings and the total nonfarm employed. The economic value of the earnings of the labor market is $436.02 billion dollars. This is higher than last September's $422.81 billion, but lower than September 2008 ($422 billion) and 2007 ($443.45 billion). This is also lower than last month's $442.18 billion. The average for all months since January 2007 is $433 billion.
The reason I like to track this is to show that the total amount of cash that US citizens obtain through employment activity, in nominal terms, has remained basically flat within a relatively tight range (low was January 2007 at $412.79 billion, high was November 2008 at $450.16 billion). This is in spite of steady increases in population, and significant increases in government spending for the alleged purposes of stimulating employment activity. We've added 9 million people (that we know about) since January 2007. The bailout and guarantees associated with it are at $16.3 trillion dollars (http://www.usfederalbailout.com/) with net outlays so far at $3.6 trillion dollars, and yet, the total amount of cash we're collectively getting through employment can't seem to gain any traction.
Yes, and adjusted to actual non-debased money (gold/silver) down right horrendous.
A solid point, these numbers are in nominal terms as well, so even in regards to a CPI chain in 2000 dollars, the total value has been trending downwards.
Also just wanted to point out that the headline unemployment rate in March 2009 (that contained the recent famous market low of S&P 666) was 8.6%. Just to illustrate how little the headline unemployment rate has had to do with the market activity over the past year and half.
lolz, no stimulus needed here
' I dont always Stimulize, but when i do, I use 1 part rogaine and 2 parts viagra. Stay thirsty my friends'
Bernanke - the Most Interesting Man in the World
He should up the Rogaine and may add some fiber.
This is good news it means QE2 is a sure thing.
By any stretch of the imagination, how is QE2 a good thing?
this is recovery?
after trillions spent? after obama/pelosi magic?
when will even the MSM report what is going on
LOL - bill gross - fed, buy more assets
Sure he didn't say "buy my assets"?
a point surely not lost on the Fed - no QE2 and the slide starts for real. I was in part worried that an overly bullish picture might be drummed up for the midterms - but that would have spelled disaster for the markets if it took QE2 off the table - and that would put a 2nd term in jeopardy - I think the midterms are a necessary writeoff at this point.
I got news for you - the slide starts for real whether they do QE2 or not. Consistently high unemployment is like a giant millstone relentlessly grinding the hopium that people like you are counting on into dust. Even if QE2 could raise asset prices in the near-term, it would also cause food and energy prices to rise, which would squeeze the lower and lower-middle class even further, which further reduces economic activity and money velocity in this country.
rally to dow 20,000!
Why are the futures climbing then?
More money printing = (Hyper?) inflation = get your wealth out of cash in into something, anything, else asap.
We need the following things to for the coming Armageddon-food, guns, precious metals and one or two women.
that's it, ev? you certainly know how to go without...
Just found some Hopi Indian parching corn seed to put in the freezer. Has been grown by the Hopi tribe since time began. Its freaking tough to find any open pollinated varieties as Monsanto has basically removed all seed corn except their industrialized hybrid bullshit.Stuff has a small ear and cob but might grow well on its own once oil based fertilizers are gone. Just looking far out into the future planning accordingly and hoping I will never need my open pollinated seed stash but with aholes running the world, one can never be to careful. Guns, ammo, seeds, old timber working tools, old corn sheller,wagon making stuff,blacksmithing tools... well you get the picture.
Also find the appropriate non-contaminated rocks you can crush to dust and distribute that dust throughout your garden. The dust and grains works like a long acting (10-20 year) broad spectrum mineral fertilizer and will give you happy plants and happy nutrition.
QE2 is a certainty now.
Guess it WASN'T priced in.
Stocks will rally anyway, I'm telling you good news is great, bad news is good.
Fast forward to 1:24.
Note the St. Louis Fed president to his left that does not object to his comments.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1610280589&play=1
Whoops. That first step off the cliff is a bitch.
Me thinks bullard doth protest too much..
not confidence inspiring.
Market did drop, for exactly 2 seconds. We now return you to our regularly scheduled ramp job, bitchez.
Exactly - futures action was ridiculous. It was even crazier in the currency markets [read: EURUSD. The chosen ones aren't even trying to hide it anymore. As soon as the futures start to tank, you can see it reverse on a dime and recover all losses and then some. Is it possible the Fed could actually win this game?
"Don't fight the Fed"
Parasites always win until the host removes them, or dies outright.
First 5 min candle plunges but closes green. Simply awesome.
dollar getting trashed again as gold pops
Only in the USA could markets rally on such abysmal news. Watching the futures reverse course this morning is the joke to end all jokes.
Overnight the Dow mini futures had a high of 10,930 and a low of 10,830. Every 24 hours it moves 100 points 90% of the time. The round turn has all ready taken place. We may drift all day in a narrow range.
"That doesn't make any sense"
Every asset class seems happy with this shitty report.
The market should go up today 200 points or I'm calling the jobs number Boloni. Jobs are still getting lost, no turn around yet.
Jeeez, look at the activity in Gold - all over the place.
If JPM weren't here to suppress the price, given options expiry, it would have been back up to $1,350 easily.
But hey, manipulation when done by a large bank is obviously entirely legal.
stocks are up because the dollar is down.I dont see why it is so hard to understand for some of you. Shiney to 1400 snithes
US Dollar Index - 77.622, up 0.185.
Nope.
The dollar is getting whipped around at the moment. DXY 77.37
These numbers will be revised next month after the elections. More smoke and mirrors.
and. gold. spikes.
That's some volatility.
Currency values seem to be becoming more uncertain with every passing day.
turd...had a feeling..just think that unlike 2008 the cats out the bag....ZH has been instrumental in informing the masses about Bullshit Lies and Statistics..once you start lying, you know you have to lie to keep that lie..so on and so forth..what nefarious tricks will they pull out the bag? no one knows...how far will EE go? Will heli-Ben be desperate enough to commit a criminal act on the 5pm news? will timmah jump out the window? guess that's the quadrillion dollar question.
On my drive in to work today I came to the startling and slightly disconcerting realization that I was looking forward equally to 1. the BLS report and subsequent fallout, and 2. reading what someone who calls himself Turd thinks about it. Strange times, indeed.
Dow futures saw a 60 point drop in 2 seconds. Then it rose just as quick. Now it's about to go positive. Mark my words the market will not fall before the election. This market is not being by a phantom bidder. Oh look the futures just went green. Here are your headlines, stocks shrug of bad data.
HFT futures flash crash. Do they know no bounds?
thank goodness for those 38K food service jobs - circling the drain.
Private payrolls didn't increase if you factor in the (NSA) Not In Labor Force (Table A16) growing by some 1.7 million. 1.7 million vanished from the workforce....
no mention of the aa $49M tax benefit to fdrive eps. Pathetic - JPM upgrades on the shinking GDP but higher Al demandon China auto.
Did I see DOW futures fall by over 90 points and then, in an instance, jack back to zero?
Yes you did Boiler. Didn't you know on the stock market rallies can save America. Free Bennies for everyone. When the immigrants would here stories of streets paved in gold they could not jump on the boats fast enough. Free land and a mule for all.
Do not question where the magic dollars to buy futures come from nor the beautiful leverage that slowly tightens or noose.
Only in America.No jobs needed govt sends it to you. No cost for housing and soon free cable paid for by Uncle Shizam.
A zig or a zag may be in store on the QE2 cruise. 1040 on the SPX is now a good ways below with numerous bands of support.
Do you remember when Greenspan was speaking a couple of months ago (maybe more than a couple but probably within a year) on the importance of equity prices in the overall picture of well being that the FED takes into account? Well of course if the transmission mechanism for rate cuts is housing and housing has been a no show, then a proxy must be found in the short run, thus equities and the POMO ramps we have been watching in awe and disbelief. If you took this in oracular fashion and did the Robo, it has worked.
Now the wizened old man is in the FT speaking about the perils of deficit spending and how we are going to have to start cutting back on entitlements etc.
He is not speaking rogue in my opinion.
I will not be surprised if the FED holds off on QE2 in November. A la Goldman, no bang for the buck, add to that Hoenig, Lacker, Plosser, Fischer, maybe Kocherlakota and this morning Bullard ... Add to that the simmering pressure cooker that debasing the reserve currency is now having globally ... They may very well pause here because the domestic political landscape will most likely be changing.
Nothing moves in a straight line (not even gold ).
Keep in mind, best performing stock market 2000-10 in nominal terms is Zimbabwe. In real terms, it has been an absolute destroyer of wealth.
Friday's Unemployment Rate Report Likely to Understate
The government's final unemployment report before the midterm elections is based on job market conditions around mid-September. Gallup's modeling of the unemployment rate is consistent with Tuesday's ADP report of a decline of 39,000 private-sector jobs, and indicates that the government's national unemployment rate in September will be in the 9.6% to 9.8% range. This is based on Gallup's mid-September measurements and the continuing decline Gallup is seeing in the U.S. workforce during 2010.
However, Gallup's monitoring of job market conditions suggests that there was a sharp increase in the unemployment rate during the last couple of weeks of September. It could be that the anticipated slowdown of the overall economy has potential employers even more cautious about hiring. Some of the increase could also be seasonal or temporary.
Further, Gallup's underemployment measure suggests that the percentage of workers employed part time but looking for full-time work is declining as the unemployment rate increases. To some degree, this may reflect a reduced company demand for new part-time employees. For example, employers may be converting some existing part-time workers to full time when they are needed as replacements, but may not in turn be hiring replacement part-time workers. Another explanation may relate to the shrinkage of the workforce, as some employees who have taken part-time work in hopes of getting full-time jobs get discouraged and drop out of the workforce completely -- going back to school to enhance their education, for example, instead of doing part-time work. It is even possible that some workers may find unemployment insurance a better alternative than part-time work with little prospect of going full time.
Regardless, the sharp increase in the unemployment rate during late September does not bode well for the economy during the fourth quarter, or for holiday sales. In this regard, it is essential that the Federal Reserve and other policymakers not be misled by Friday's jobs numbers. The jobs picture could be deteriorating more rapidly than the government's job release suggests.
any job growth is still deflationary, as the new jobs pay so much less than the old jobs. However, that is GREAT for corporate profits.
Look at this spectacle inside the Fed. CNBC is the Pravda if the U.S.
I wonder why they receive all these exclusives.
The presidential townhall , Fed exclusives, bernanke exclusives.
Next the Fort Knox bullion audit will be conducted by Liesman and Burnett.
The exact purpose of today's nonsense is to have more QE jawboning.
How much lower will rates on mortgages go? Cmon geniuses get with the program Housing was too expensive for the last 10 years and that was the inherent problem.
With mortgage gate slowing halting not just foreclosure sales they are in a corner to bring rates even lower further distorting asset prices. Maybe when oil is 110 a barrell and hostess cupcakes are 2.00 a package they will stop.
These are dangerous people ladies amd gents. Thanks for bailing out the elites middle class..here is your reward expensive housing and zero return on savings. But hey...it's for the greater good.
"I wonder why they receive all these exclusives."
no you don't - i've read many of your posts - i think you get it.
likeable western pravda.
Can't go without Hostess Cupcakes!
That's why I keep a few 90% dimes in my pocket.
I remember the day when a package of those suddenly went from 10 cents to 12 cents, around 1965 I guess. That is when my then 9 year old brain calculated that something might be amiss. A few months later I got my first nickel clad copper quarter, and all doubt was removed.
I talk to as many people as I can about this shit...I know some people look at me like some weird ass suit with a tin foil hat.....but i have to believe the message is getting to some who can fathom all this..the fucking doorman at the job has a better grasp of what is happening than the CEO...fucking topsy turvy
Right on. High-falutin white collar types and bottom-feeders in the ponzimonium are in hopeless denial. People forced to spend more of their money on food listen better.
Inside Job is out today: http://www.comingsoon.net/films.php?id=66698
It would appear that the good ship QE2 is coming down the shipway. I did see an implied consequence of this discussed earlier on the notayesmanseconomics blog.
"Somewhat surprisingly I see that Richard Fisher President of the Dallas Fed agrees with me as according to the Financial Times he said.
I could almost set a quiz question here,before this passage of time when did you ever here a central banker outside Japan say something like that?"
Of corse we have seen the Fed. talk of inflation targetting and even price-level targetting....
http://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com
I don't see the futures stuggling. Flat is a very positive reaction to the news. I don't know how losing 94K jobs is good news - I don't care what industry from which they are lost.
Walked into two CVS yesterday and what do my eyes behold 4 new automated checkouts. No need for humans.
Free Rose the Robots for all.
See the corporate structure as it automates is forgetting one thing you may not need to humans to sell to the consumers but when you destroy the consumers it's endgame. Americas pass the shell economy is dying.
Gold spikes $15? Futures turn green? Is the market rallying because of better than expected news or because it didn't derail the oncoming QE2. I suspect the later due to the spike in gold. Devaluation: it's what's for dinner.
I think they perhaps spiked for 2 different reasons. Those wanting more insurance went into gold...those expecting more QE went into equities. I think perhaps we are watching 2 distinctly different actions occurring.
Wow that summer of recovery was astounding.
Looking at the response this morning, apparently government, or it's derivative the Fed, is the answer.
Because this time it is different.
yep, prepare for this fall's "Recovery from Summer" initiative.
I came back from Vegas last week. I think there were more employees than there were guests/gamblers. The streets were flooded with brand new Chevy Malibu's converted into taxis. The armies of people working guest relations were all young, Asian, and freshly-minted from socal's finest colleges. You want to know where all those fleet cars are going and who, exactly, is doing any hiring? Political favor at its finest.
Digging shit out of the ground and hospitality at any cost. This is America's slide down the value chain. If you want to know what our labor markets are going to look like in 5 years, catch a flight to Seoul. If we're lucky, it'll look almost identical to theirs.
Sorry, I don't get to South Korea very often, could you explain what Seoul's employment situation looks like?
I wouldn't go to Seoul if you gave me a first class ticket.
ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsqJFIJ5lLs
If police refuse to do their work crime runs rampant, if regulators refuse to do their work corruption runs wild.
I wonder how many billions the CTFC and SEC have cost people because their refusal to do their job, criminal negligence. Can they be sued?
'If police refuse to do their work crime runs rampant'
Police are nothing more than a tax collection agency more interested in writing seat belt infractions than fighting real crime.
I can take a punch. As long as its from a soccer mom.
Kina, more study of the splendid links available at ZE could modify your perspective and subsequent comments. Regulators do the job they are instructed to do by the non-free-market-regulated political power they are subject too (elections are no substitute for free-market self-regulation). Over the long run that's the way it has been as this is the nature of monopoly "service". Perhaps (I hope) this offers you an inspiration to expand your awareness about the concept of "political power"? The SEC and CTFC have cost some many billions because they are doing their "job". Were you just being sarcastic? If not, and if you haven't already checked it out, try this great link: "The Myth of the Rule of Law" -
http://faculty.msb.edu/hasnasj/GTWebSite/MythWeb.htm
or this nice article: "Justice for All Without the State" - (that is "State" in its present monopoly form)
http://www.libertarianstandard.com/articles/david-j-heinrich/justice-for...
When I modified my concept of "state" to equate to an entity that provides services I started to see the world differently. Does the idea of going "there" scare you out of at least trying the idea out to see if it can fit for you?
This reminds me of the scene from "Very Bad Things" where they try to kill the security guard by stabbing him with a corkscrew, only to have him bleed out over the course of several minutes like a wounded beast. If it weren't so darkly funny, it'd almost be painful to watch.
Yawn. These figures will be "revised" in a couple of weeks, as per usual, to show an even gloomier picture.
Amazing how the unemployment figure is dropping as the number of people out of work shoots up. Either the US statistics wonks are geniuses for making people believe this horseshit or the American people are suffering from a mass delusion. And the answer is B.
Other lowlights of the report in my opinion.
Employers cut staffing by 95,000 workers after a revised 57,000 decrease in August, Labor Department figures in Washington showed today.
There is the mandatory downward revision to prior again.
Manufacturing payrolls decreased by 6,000 after declining 28,000 a month earlier. Economists projected a 2,000 increase for September.
Employment at service-providers decreased 73,000. Construction companies subtracted 21,000 workers and retailers hired 5,700 workers.
The vaunted manufacturing and service industries are really piling them on. Not.
The markets should love this as it ups the urgency of QE2 and indicates that corporate earnings will again soar as they continue to eliminate that onerous cost element best done away with - employees.
Its a much-used phrase, but don't fight the Fed IS a trading clarion call. Free money to buy backstopped risk assets is an all-clear for further advances in stocks, bonds and commodities. This is also helped by a declining dollar. Feed at the trough until satiated, then get the hell out!
Yawh howdy!
I can see why nobody wants to hold USD, its rubbish. Get into gold or something before it becomes toilet paper.
The CNBS Website headline is - I kid you not:
Breaking News: Everything Up on Jobs Number: Stock Futures Improve; Gold Rises; Bonds Also Gain
(Everything) up is good,right?
Pete
In reasonably normal times, this jobs report would have sparked a major sell-off. Obviously, we are not anywhere near normal.
The Fed says $1 Trillion in QE will drop rates 1/2 percentage point. Well, let's all go out and buy an overpriced $350,000 McMansion because our monthly payment dropped $75. Recovery is on the way... no, wait, it's continuing... expecting full employment by the year 3465.
The Fed can't be serious with this. The only effect QE will have is keeping the zombie banks operating. Hell, it's not even enough pass-through to the real economy to even spark off hyperinflation. Gold and silver do look very good, however.
600K+ increase in part time employment in the household survey. Most of that resulted from poor business conditions. The establishment survey shows a large increae in temporary service workers. How many in the household survey are working 2 or more of these part time jobs? No wonder the U-6 is 17.1%.
IF RISING UNEMPLOYMENT AND A DETERIORATING ECONOMY ARE GOOD FOR WALL STREET.........
THEN WALL STREET WILL GUARANTEE THAT THINGS GET MUCH WORSE VERY QUICKLY
THE FINAL RAPE AND PILLAGE IS UPON US
USA OVER, KILLED BY BANKSTERS
Krugman was at last right about something. There is no light at the end of this tunnel.
I reckon a bit of bad news out of China will be enough to start the cascade.
Bad news from China? You will be disappointed. The Chinese government is good at churning out good news.
The FED'tards are full of crap. There will be no Q/E2 they cant deliver it, all smack talk and bluff while they hold a pair of 2's!
No double dip. I repeat no double dip. I'm from the gubmint. I'm here to help.
10 percentile unemployment discussions are so dishonest. WHy is ZH falling for it at all?
Real numbers, please (18, 20% or more?). Or at least honest efforts to report them at all times.
Never forget criminals are still in charge! And they love the 10 percent argument.
Let's see now, if we kicked 11 million plus illegals out of the country, that would free up jobs for the honest working class, firm up wages, and do more for domestic security than all the cops in Christendom.
Oh wait. To do that the pres and attorney general would have to obey their oathes of office and enforce the law of the land. Never gonna happen. Silly me.
Think of all the jobs needed just to round up 11 million people.
Better yet let's just round up all the tribalists and kick them to the curb. Should free up lots of space.
What do you have against the Jews?
More to the point, what is it you don't understand about ILLEGAL?
If the government can pick and chose which laws to enforce, what is the point of laws?
I'm a CEO and I'm okay .... I cut your jobs and keep your pay ....
(He's a CEO and he's okay .... He cuts your job and keeps your pay ....)
I cut down costs, I eat my steaks, I go to the lava'try
On Wednesdays I go golfing while you will slave for me
(He cuts down costs, He eats his steaks ....)
Corrupt society, what are we teaching the next generation? Lie, cheat and steal and you will get power and money?
We can do better...
Private sector employment up.
Government sector employment down.
I cannot shed any tears over that.
If government would just get the hell out of the way and let businesses run their businesses without all of the tampering and meddling, we could grow those trends into a solid and sustainable recovery.
Then again, I am certain that is not what Barry, Nancy, and Harry have in store for us.
Coming tax increases will destroy the private sector momentum.
It is not within the nature of "political power" to get "out of the way". Would you care to argue against this thesis? If you factor in stealth tax increases through currency debasement on top of all the other ways the beast fails to "get out of the way" you will be able to see that there is no "private sector momentum" (upwards anyway), only a consistent slide to serfdom at slower or faster speeds. Are you not able to see this?
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If you played the market only on the days of the Fed's POMO activities, you would be up 12% for the year. If you played the days when there were no Fed POMO activities, you would be flat. On the other hand, you are too focused on the U.S. (foreclosure, unemployment, etc). 10% U.S. unemployment has been absorbed by 10% growth in China and exponential growth in other emerging nations (India, Malaysia, etc). Companies are doing well by their efforts to abandon the U.S. worker, which our policy makers seem all too lenient to let happen. The stock market has always been a game of manipulation. Business conditions may set the market direction, but the continuing momentum is created by our beloved and reputable investment banks.