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Peak Theories On The Euro Versus The Dollar

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Abigail Doolittle of Peak Theories shares her latest technical observations on the EURUSD. Coming at a convenient timing, following after the CFTC COT data, her outlook is diametrically opposite from that of Goldman whose LT and tactical targets are 1.55 and 1.37 respecitvely. Specifically, "I think we could see the euro hit about $1.225 between now and the end of the second quarter of this year while the dollar index may crest to between 86 and 88 in the same time period." The charts attached explain her reasoning.

The Weekly Peak: The Euro versus The Dollar (pdf)

 

 


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Fri, 01/21/2011 - 18:39 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Thank you very much. Great reading for the weekend!

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 19:08 | Link to Comment USD Long
USD Long's picture

This analysis is very well supported...with an exception of A. Elliot Wave Daily count seems "incompleted" and B. Intervention from our promiscuous EUR spenders...I swear she looked 15...ok Berlusconi, pay her in USD then...

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 19:11 | Link to Comment Arius
Arius's picture

she should find a better way to make it to finals of American Idol...

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 19:20 | Link to Comment Just_Another_User
Just_Another_User's picture

Thanks for sharing ... Great stuff!

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 20:15 | Link to Comment New Revolution
New Revolution's picture

I"m looking at her trendlines and I'm kinda thinking she's full of shit.    I can indentify parallel trendlines that are a lot more valid than the ones she's drawing and they do not testify to a lot of support of the dollar here.   I'd have to go with Goldman as much as I loath the parasite.

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 20:31 | Link to Comment Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

A dollar index that high doesnt help the Dow stay in bonerland.

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 21:01 | Link to Comment Wheatman
Wheatman's picture

This is a prechter suckout scenario which is quite plausible, particularly if Bernank can't get QE3 for political reasons. With Europe now in austerity, interest rates stubborn, food inflation, and rioting masses against govt profligacy, the entire market may roll over and we may see reverse correlation where most things fall, except the USD. The suckout could last a while, but will be followed by mass printing, $300 silver, $10,000 wheat and the end of the world, around 12.12.212.

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 23:46 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

the end is near? really? nooo seriously? lol

I like the euro with china steping up to float thier trade, PLUS! thier (China's) new new new brand fucking new Bond program..

Panda Bonds Bitchez... says euro is stronger! quote me!

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 21:01 | Link to Comment scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

speechless.

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 22:59 | Link to Comment Mydixie Wrecked
Mydixie Wrecked's picture

i agree with wheatman. doolittle seems to do little real thinking here otehr than play with the asthetics of the lines. but what does it matter? wheatmans scenario eventually will play out and if you've planted wheat then you're good until the next planting season.

Fri, 01/21/2011 - 23:43 | Link to Comment JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Yeah, sure... ummm... but, is she hawt?

Sat, 01/22/2011 - 02:43 | Link to Comment Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

As mentioned numerous times - US dollar strength keeps recurring because USD larger time frames are bullish and continue to warn of a significant dollar rally.

My proprietary indicators can identify trend changes before they occur.

http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com

Sat, 01/22/2011 - 06:39 | Link to Comment Tic tock
Tic tock's picture

Euro entering the twilight zone..with the Cajas' bailout (with what funds, by the way?) everything goes to 'begging bowl economics'; industry groups are putting on their wounded damsel costumes and wait to get picked up. ..but what do expect from a government of Pigs.

Sat, 01/22/2011 - 09:09 | Link to Comment Jack Sheet
Jack Sheet's picture

Nice and visually helpful charts, which analyze the past and present with the precision of an electron microscope. But to predict the future you might as well decipher the entrails of a goat. This sort of system needs validation - what have been the predictions in the past, what proportion of them have been accurate, and how much profit has the author made with the system.

Sat, 01/22/2011 - 10:51 | Link to Comment Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

It is a paper Federal Reserve note, not the flag that covered your grand pappy's WW2 coffin.  Betting on the Dollar is betting that we can print enough money to buy enough derivatives to prop it up indefinately.  The concept is self defeating.  Even Soros and the gang have given up and gone bearish.  We created too many Dollars.  We create enough money to bailout Europe every month.  With China, Japan, and the EU wise to us using the Euro as leverage to prop up the DXY, and taking the other side, its over.

Accept the fact that the commodity rally is the world unloading dollars.  They won't be back.

Sat, 01/22/2011 - 10:58 | Link to Comment dcb
dcb's picture

great charts, I have spent a huge amount of time with dollr index and dollr bear. the only thng that isn't known is how much central bank buying will happen. this seems to put a floor under a crash, when they buy and short squeeze the heck our of people

Sun, 01/23/2011 - 11:12 | Link to Comment boogey_bank
boogey_bank's picture

My 2 cents:

pursuing the bearish ( or even the doomsday) argument either on dollar or euro is utterly nonsense.

eur/usd is trading in a biig channel whose extremes are 1.15 and 1.50.

If euro goes at 1.50 Germany start feeling harsh pain and starts to make hole in the euro ship. If euro goes towards 1.15 China  feel pain and starts to buy Irish debt, Portuguese debt, fill in the blank debt.

It's a currency war and we all are only hostages.

In order to hedge an euro or dollar position one doesen't need to diversify in another sinking currency. People should look either  at chf and jpy(riskier) (cause they are losing the currency war) or cad and aud (commodity baked currencies).

In the mean time gold and silver are winning hands down the match against paper surrogates.

 

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